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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s inadequate response to Covid-19 will doom his presiden
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s inadequate response to Covid-19 will doom his presidency
In some ways the world is very fortunate. It may not feel like it at the moment, never mind in a few months or – if we’re lucky – weeks, but pandemics are an inevitable if rare occurrence of nature and the best we can do is ride out the storm with good judgement and timely action.
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Trump has never been seasoned like that. He's a developer and reality TV star.
All that being said, it's too early to completely write Trump off. The virus did come from abroad. Most Americans can't compare their country's performance with others. If their Commander in Chief says the US is doing better, many will believe it. And if there'd been a wall... maybe the damn virus would never have arrived.
Still. Trump is diminished. Physically and mentally. He's not confident and blustering. He's struggling to cope with the pressures of the job, and he's becoming paralysed by the magnitude of the issues in front of him. His lies are now more to convince himself than anyone else.
If he survives this, he'll be an older, sadder, weaker man. We've seen these transformations before. You can go from virile to decrepit surprisingly quickly.
You could do this for a long period of time, even forever. You can also blur into it after a Chinese-style severe lockdown. Since the goal is to reduce transmission, it's not reliant on *eliminating* the thing - you'll still get clusters pop up from time to time, but if you can get the average infected person to give it to less than one person they should fizzle out.
I don't want to derail this excellent politics thread with the substance, which isn't this site's sweet spot, rather than the politics which is, but this is a very important point that a lot of people in the UK seem to be missing for some weird reason. There's a lot of policy space between China and Iran.
Further perspective on the Chinese approach:
https://twitter.com/AJListeningPost/status/1238536132268298244?s=20
Cases up 816 to 2,513
Deaths up 9 to 50
Number of new US cases:
9 Mar - 106
10 Mar - 163
11 Mar - 290
12 Mar - 307
13 Mar - 396
14 Mar - 816 (number may not be final)
(All per worldometer)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaoVg6ejgRQ
It's a very compelling address though in a very different style to the BoJo equivalent where the experts held court and press questions were tackled remarkably openly. Without getting into an argument about what's most appropriate for SG/the UK, it's interesting that (a) quite different sets of measures can be successfully presented as reasonable if you get the communication right, (b) there's more than one style to successfully present a policy.
(Though even if the UK had a PM with the kind of "on top of the brief", details-person public persona that would let them do a single-handed announcement in the Lee Hsien Loong style, rather than make liberal use of advisers as a kind of human shield - perhaps Blair or Hunt could have carried it off - the lack of press questions at the end would have seen it deemed here as worryingly secretive, and the absence of neutral experts would have risked making the approach seem a more partisan issue. Obviously there are presentational differences about what's deemed good or acceptable between countries. Trump's "carnival of capitalism" approach was clearly intended to satisfy American rather than British sensibilities. I wonder if he was at the top of his game, and his administration hadn't tainted its record on COVID-19 so badly already, he might just have pulled it off. As it was, though.... wow.)
Still, interesting that it didn't convince Bev C (who's a smart cookie). I fear the government, and experts who support them, have got a tricky problem here. Arguing head-on against the view "they're letting thousands of us die" - which I suspect is a strongly-held but minority position at present - would involve being very blunt and upfront about what they see as stark but inevitable facts. But I doubt an attempt at rational persuasion is going to convert many of their opponents - any differences between UK and certain foreign responses, or the simple human tendency towards hope, means it's unlikely they'll accept such "inevitability". On the other hand, reiterating those rather bleak facts isn't going to do much for public morale generally and the more the consequences of actively pursuing herd immunity enter the public consciousness, I suspect the more people will object. The alternative position of largely ignoring that "letting us die" criticism has serious downsides too, by conceding a space and letting it fester.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/china-coronavirus-shocking-update/5705196
At the moment, I feel confident we are following the science. Will Boris hold his nerve though if he starts coming in for serious criticism? Hard to know.
Ultimately I think where you stand on who to trust comes down to how much faith you have in the system, in authority, in experts. And it is easy to see how for many people that has been eroded over time.
Also, we had a Herdson article just a few weeks ago tipping buying Sanders when he was odds on - and we know what happened next.
Things that look inevitable one week can look very different the next.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1238540941717356548?s=20
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518390488252416?s=20
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518391914344448?s=20
1) People who would otherwise be on the Trump Train are unhappy with their friends and relatives dying, and find his explanations for why it's the fault of [liberals/Obama/Biden/foreigners] unconvincing
2) Tanking the economy makes him unpopular in the mid-west
3) He loses his mojo and decides to call it a day
4) It literally kills Trump
I haven't yet seen any evidence of (1) - it's not clear whether there's *anything* that will turn Trump enthusiasts against Trump. But your friends and relatives dying sounds bad. Maybe 50/50.
(2) seems overwhelmingly likely to me. He was already unpopular in the mid-west, printing money and spraying it at the voters will only go so far. The economy was basically all he had going for him and I think for this reason he's toast.
(3) kind of follows on from (1) and (2). If it looks like he's going down, there may be a point where his demented self-confidence is broken. If that happens before the convention he still has the delegates, so maybe he retires and tries to pick his successor. "74 years old is too old to be president"...
(4) would be fun but it feels too obvious, the scriptwriters always manage to surprise us...
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238518383693496320
https://twitter.com/maxwalden_/status/1238711486895116296?s=20
a) Incredibly badly informed about this kind of thing
b) Predisposed to blame certain groups for anything bad
Trump"s foreign virus rhetoric is despicable, but totally true to character and the same shit worked for him in the past. Let's hope he really is toast.
If Biden reached a majority of pledged delegates in the next 6 weeks can it's governing body pass a motion to skip the convention this year and declare him nominee? (obviously then cancelling all primaries in outstanding states)
Yes, it might not happen but it's a good deal more likely and logical than many other courses of action. And democratically defensible (in exceptional circumstances) since the result would be a foregone conclusion anyway: like playing T20 cricket when you've still got several overs left but you've already beaten your opponent on runs.
It is quite possible to be better prepared for a second wave, in terms of vaccines, treatments, or even mundane things like adequate stores of protective equipment, training and ICU capacity.
At that point, with their economy dependent on continuing EU bail-outs, those that can leave will try to. Their country will be hollowed out not by the disease itself, but by those not prepared to live a life dogged by this virus continuing to stalk the land. And the restrictions on their lives each time it does.
I did watch that Channel 4 interview somewhat on the edge of my seat, just in case the pressure of the cameras or the unconventional nature of his co-interviewee might trigger an unbearable-to-watch brain-hiccup, but he sailed through, unfazed and measured.
If Edmunds ever turns round and says "I cannot support the government's policy announcements, they are no longer grounded in the evidence" that would alarm me ten thousand times more than the recent protests of Richard Horton (Lancet editor) or John Ashton (until recently President of the Faculty of Public Health). I fear to the general public that an expert is an expert is an expert, and if they hold a prestigious title all the better regardless of their biases and what relevance their expertise actually holds to the problem at hand, but an expert whose views chime with mine has qualifications worth far more than an expert whose views I don't like.
Is the Government preparing for herd immunity because it thinks it will take too long, or won't work, or because they think they won't get enough of it? Or do you always do both to be prudent?
Which?
https://twitter.com/BaileyCarlin/status/1238147875143647234
Until I wondered if Cummings might have been thinking along the same lines.
2) Will a second wave occur at all? Equally the virus could mutate to a less virulent form.
3) Will there be no effective treatment or vaccine by the time a second wave arrives that renders "herd immunity" pointless?
The government strategy, such as it is*, fails if any of these three is true.
* people are self isolating to the point that we may well not get "herd immunity" at all.
As I am fairly nailed on to get it in the first wave, I have a certain amount of skin in this game. Protective equipment stocks will last just days as far as I can see. Unless there is a massive shipment coming our way.
Anyone know how this is affecting South America and Africa? I remember there being fears countries with little in the way of healthcare could be devastated, though I've not heard much about those two continents.
Interesting to read of what Professor Edmunds said.
Also worth remembering there isn't anything like a safe option. We're going to get a lot of deaths. And kudos to Boris Johnson was not simply doing as everyone else is, which would provide him with political cover. We must hope it works, but it'll be months before we really know if it has.
There are two problems with that aspect of the government’s approach.
First, there is no absolute certainty (though it’s likely) that infection makes you immune to reinfection by this virus.
The second problem is that viruses mutate - there is no ‘herd immunity’ to seasonal flu.
It is not a message I approve (not least as I’m on the edge of being in the age risk category), but the thought is out there.
https://twitter.com/tim_cook/status/1238717395058876416?s=20
A FB friend reposted this Neonatal Dr's views:
Testing is crucial for contact tracing and the containment phase of an epidemic. This is the reason the Far East have done so well in the early stages of this outbreak. South Korea in particularly is a shining example of incredible government foresight and outstanding public health practice. This is too widespread now to contain in the UK/US/Europe/other continents. That ship sailed in February. This virus has very likely been in Europe since early-mid January if you look at the spread and incubation period. There is a good chance it reached the UK and Italy well before the first cases were confirmed on 31 January. I agree with the government that testing should now be confined to hospital patients and essential clinical staff. We need to concentrate our efforts on preparing for the worse case scenario; right now, mass testing won't achieve this. There are thousands of people with it out there already.
Delay means it's done. The pandemic is out there it is never going away. You can read those words but it takes time to process them. It is out there and it is never going away.
So the question is how long are you willing to close your society to fight this thing?
If you kill the curve flat in your country but it is out there in the rest of the world you have to stop all interactions with the outside world. So rather than smoothing the curve you flatten it out 5 years or more where at every point along those five years you are living in fear.
Do you want to live in fear or in hope?
No SARS vaccine yet.
The best explanation i have been given, which i simply don't believe, is that people weren't really looking hard enough. So counting on a vaccine is like budgeting on the assumption of a lottery win. My impression is that scientists are saying we can't count on one for 18 months because they dare not say anything more pessimistic and people are interpreting this as meaning we'll have one in 2 years nailed on. Note that scientists also tend to say "this may become annual" rather than "we could get two whole years of this".
https://twitter.com/ProfBrianCox/status/1238415079261057024?s=20
https://twitter.com/iandonald_psych/status/1238637638782984193?s=20
It wouldn't be a problem for very introverted people, but most others go out at least fairly often, even if not for work. You can't be isolated forever. Very extroverted people in particular will find that difficult if not impossible. And humans are not driven entirely by health concerns as we see with alcohol consumption, smoking, and unprotected sex behaviour.
Mr. B, because this is effectively worldwide, if any one country fails to contain the virus then its citizens can reinfect everyone without immunity. Not my area at all, but that seems like a strong argument for trying to have a safeguard in place. A vaccine's ideal, but if it isn't ready (NB not just created, but manufactured, distributed, and administered to billions of people) in time then you get secondary infections all through winter.
I don't envy the PM this choice at all. If there's a second wave and no vaccine, herd immunity could save a huge number of lives. If there isn't or if the vaccine is ready, then this action will likely increase the number of deaths significantly.
This is something that gives me confidence he's being guided by the experts in science, medicine, and human behaviour. It's not remotely in Boris Johnson's political interest to diverge from what many others (though not everyone) are doing right now. Conspiracy theorists on Twitter claiming he deliberately wants to kill off his own voting base are high on their own supply.
This might be the wrong or right path, but that's true for every course of action a government might take.
The far more sensible, but more stringent (i.e. less lucrative) approach is the rest of the world's: contain and hold the virus through the Northern Hemisphere summer months whilst we develop either a vaccine or better cures and get ourselves as geared up as possible for next winter.
It's too late of course for the UK.
Testing of symptomatic patients does help though in identifying who is now immune and no longer needs to self isolate. Without that, we can not be certain that it is safe to return to normal activities.
The former head of the GPs for example:
https://twitter.com/ClareGerada/status/1238529050005692418?s=19
The bubonic plague was incurable once. Now a few pills fix it.
At this time of crisis, arm chair generals and Wikipedia experts with a sideline in claiming to be a bestselling author are just the people they need.
Have no idea if this is as promising as it sounds but here in lockeddown SE Spain for the next 2 weeks [at least] here's hoping.
Hope you get everything you need Foxy.
Life is going fine, with a few changes, some of which are beneficial, like working from home. Shops are open, restaurants are open, trains are running, people who need to go to work are going to work. On nicer, less crowded trains. If we had to carry on like this for 3 years waiting for a vaccine then that's not ideal but also not terrible. I'd definitely take a year of this over a week of full-on lockdown.
The only exception is school closures, which can't really go on forever, but it's not really clear how much of a useful role they're playing now, and even if reopening them is damaging there's a bit of time to work on ways to mitigate it.
There's a presumed nuance to herd immunity - which is not simply "have loads of people get it". It's have loads of people get it who can safely get it but keep them away from the more high risk cases.
As for all this talk about how "we've blown it where (EU) countries haven't". Try looking at 1) what EU countries are doing (it's hardly uniform - some are basically the same as us - and there are very few whose numbers are currently better than ours)
What I am slightly more hopeful of, though only slightly, is that the rest of the world has now understood just what a dangerous, unreliable, untrustworthy narcissist Trump is. We need to find ways to work around him. Working with him is not possible. Backing Trump to own the lefties can only cause harm.
Pretty sure the CMO said this.
Priority for those in hospitals.
We should be so lucky....
In any case use some imagination. Isn't this what Boris Johnson is for - a sense of adventure and a can-do attitude? Show a bit of spirit FFS. Do what they do in Japan and make the kids ride bikes to school. Ban the school run and solve two problems at once.
I hope Trump is not re-elected though I wish it did not take a pandemic to achieve that.
As an aside, I am not at all convinced by the Chinese figures, certainly for the death rates. People were being locked into their homes. How do we know how many of those died? And what of people dying before the Chinese admitted what was going on?
I just don’t think we can draw any conclusions on the basis of the figures the Chinese authorities are giving us.
I do not envy the government the choices it is having to make and I have not a scintilla of doubt it is being guided by the best advice available, as well as the best intentions. We all just have to hope the right calls are being made.
Maybe this nudge stuff isn't so rubbish after all...
More workimg from home means less office space needed means more people able to live in urban areas. A rise in virtual service companies and shared office spaces. Less commuting and less business that services commuters.
Fundamentally we're going to be forced to be more self-sufficient as a nation. Could 3d printer businesses explode onto the scene locally manufacturing all the stuff that we import from China at the moment? Will importing clothes made by Bangladeshi children be viable any more? Italy and I have to assume Spain have stopped exporting food to us. That means less fruit and veg which means a change in our diet unless more people are willing to work in agriculture and we can find ways to grow warmer climate stuff here.
I think the government has this right. People are going to die. Many will die of CV19 instead of the other thing that would have killed them. That sounds cold (I include my frail and sick parents on that list who every autumn wonder what might finished off that winter) but when you are the government you have to be cold if it's about national survival.
How we come out the other side is a massive consideration, not just how we transition through the next few months. Some countries will come out weaker, some stronger. Because of how they deal with this pandemic. That our government is looking beyond just the immediate is a Good Thing.
Current distribution of cases
I think they're hoping it will go away.....
I don't know enough about Japanese society to know how easily they can adapt to school closures - perhaps you can enlighten. School seems to start at six, what happens to children below that age? Do they generally have two parent families, and do both parents usually work?
In the UK people with children align their holidays with their childrens to cope. Prolonged closures would be a major problem, especially if combined with attempting to work.
I think most people will be happy to be on the "Let's not kill our parents" side of the great divide. (Unfortunately my parents are on the other side.)