So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
Close to my thinking, but I expect there will be partial lockdowns.
I don't expect schools to stay fully open throughout.
There will be at least partial closures, and we are prepared for this, but the exams/university admissions period will be tricky.
The UK has the advantage that the school exams are later than here in Germany. In Berlin the school final exams are either side of Easter. In my partner's school (like an FE College for 16+ students) it has just been announced that from Monday all lessons are cancelled, but the exams will still take place.
At my Uni the exams scheduled for the next two weeks have been cancelled at short notice.
For the first time Biden (1.11) is lower than Trunp (1.12) with BF to lead their respective parties into the next election. And Biden hasn`t won the nomination yet.
Biden hasn't been hanging around Covid infested individuals.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
More correctly, they are rolling a die. But perhaps that would need disambiguation.
You could have just written rolling a dice, as dice is perfectly acceptable as a singular.
Well quite. I did say "more correctly".
No. Either is equally correct. Indeed dice is the preferred usage in Chambers.
I misread that and thought you were talking about barrister chambers. Why would they specify their preferred plural for that, I thought?
Problem is we have a Parliament, media and civil service stuffed with lawyers, arts graduates and classicists who can’t dissect the models, challenge the maths and ask the probing questions.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
That’s a really good analogy.
Not really. The clear aim in China and Korea is to shut the reaction down completely.
We are trying to run a nuclear reaction with limited information as to whether it has gone runaway (stopping community testing), and serious uncertainty as to whether the control rods will act fast enough if it does.
But exponentials are involved in both processes, certainly.
I am beginning to think exponentials are getting too much star billing in all this. If I put £100 in a bank at 1% compounded annually it grows exponentially, if it just gets a flat £2 added every year it grows linearly but still outperforms the first case for n years. Not all exponentiation is as exciting as nuclear meltdowns, and everyone on the planet being infected by May 21st.
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
Sky will be ok in the end, as they are owned by Comcast now. BT Sports is already doing badly, I wonder if this will hasten their exit from this space and leave it for Amazon to fight with Sky.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
More correctly, they are rolling a die. But perhaps that would need disambiguation.
You could have just written rolling a dice, as dice is perfectly acceptable as a singular.
Well quite. I did say "more correctly".
No. Either is equally correct. Indeed dice is the preferred usage in Chambers.
(apols) The dice is cast. The Spring is sprung. The grass is riz. Oi wonder where dem boidies is.
From what I can see the food industry is working flat out, but the self-isolation risk hangs over all of us. Those of us in management roles can WFH as I am now. But our factories can't, our hauliers can't, the people who physically moves things around the route to market until it appears on shelf can't. Its these considerations which I believe are behind the delicate balancing act the government are doing.
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
I think the finger of blame would be better pointed at the government than LFC.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
The hospitalization numbers will be more reliable but laggy, the death numbers even more so. Since time is of the essence, it's worth looking at the new case numbers, while of course bearing in mind how they could be misleading.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
The University of Oxford has announced that it has six students who have tested positive for Covid-19, and that it may switch to “more extensive use of technology for teaching and assessment” next term.
From what I can see the food industry is working flat out, but the self-isolation risk hangs over all of us. Those of us in management roles can WFH as I am now. But our factories can't, our hauliers can't, the people who physically moves things around the route to market until it appears on shelf can't. Its these considerations which I believe are behind the delicate balancing act the government are doing.
Unilateral actions by EU countries is putting a massive strain on the fundamental structure of the EU and its institutions
I predicted that some days ago
LOL at that - after weeks of the EU saying precisely nothing, they're upset that others have been making decisions, at a time when several member states have experienced national emergencies.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
If our govt is listening to our experts, why are our experts giving such different advice from everybody else's experts?
I am not sure they are. A number of countries are in a very different position to that of the UK. The Government has already said they will be looking at things like school closures as they approach the peak so I am not sure the difference is as much as opponents would like to make out.
But also there may be a fundamental difference of opinion on the likelihood or viability of a vaccine. If you don't believe we will get one any time soon then the only way to really control this thing and stop it being an ongoing threat is herd immunity.
He is also a former Health Secretary who served in that role for just under six years, and very recently at that. While I'm willing to give the government a lot of leeway in incredibly difficult circumstances, Jeremy Hunt is someone whose opinion is worth paying attention to as well. He can be expected to be familiar with the relevant considerations.
If ever there was a time for no backseat drivers, it's now.
Backseat drivers? No. But things do need to be questioned rigorously. If the scientific arguments can’t stand up to scrutiny they are probably wrong.
“Questioning” is fine. What I don’t like is people making ever more shrill “assertions” with the implicit certainty that the Govt and it’s experts are wrong, and they are right.
Sharing the evidence with other political parties. Fine.
Making the data available to universities & research institutes to do modelling, and provide scientific scrutiny & criticism. Fine.
Sharing data and implementation practices with other countries. Fine.
Making the evidence & data generally available for pundits & inspirational speakers to do crappy modelling; for Nigel Farage, Rory Stewart & Piers Morgan to use for their vapid self-promotion; and for the BBC to produce simple-minded graphics. No.
The University of Oxford has announced that it has six students who have tested positive for Covid-19, and that it may switch to “more extensive use of technology for teaching and assessment” next term.
Doing a quick back of the envelope calculation, that supports a 10,000+ case scenario. Although it is likely a lot more as those are known cases amongst the students.
The Basingstoke Gazette reports that it was told by an employee of Basingstoke and North Hampshire hospital that the woman, who was showing coronavirus symptoms, was moved into a ward with critically unwell women.
According to the paper:
The unwell patient remained on the ward around critically ill people for hours until results revealed she had coronavirus. Nurses in normal uniform and without protective gear moved her.
The member of staff contacted this newspaper after being appalled by the practice which they claim will lead to a ‘dangerous spread’ of the disease and warns the hospital is on the brink of an outbreak.
Now a patient who was forced to temporarily share the ward with the Covid-19 sufferer is displaying symptoms of the disease.
You can read more on the Basingstoke Gazette website.
I’m currently on my way to the hospital. They are in semi lock down. Unfortunately my Dad is on the inside.
He’s got the CMO and CS on speed-dial if he wants to speak to them.
Do you think he's actually trying to help the government here - ask the questions so they provide the answers? I don't know
Optimistic case
He (and Rory for the LibDemish types) are providing rational caution in coordination with government. Plan is to soften up the public’s d prevent the lines of Farage getting space
Downside case
He’s positioning himself as the gentle critic to pick up the pieces if it goes wrong for Boris (and the U.K.)
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
I think many people would rather not know about the situation in ICU to be honest.
If you can't do anything about it, ignorance of bad stuff happening is sometimes pretty good for your mental health.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
I think many people would rather not know about the situation in ICU to be honest.
If you can't do anything about it, ignorance of bad stuff happening is sometimes pretty good for your mental health.
That is why making public all the egg-heads models is a really bad idea. All we will get is wall to wall media about the numbers and wide spread panic....and more than likely the idiot journalists won't understand the probabilistic models and just see one massive figure and put that out.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
Maybe but it’s the most relevant. And just might focus minds even harder on creating more.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
I think many people would rather not know about the situation in ICU to be honest.
If you can't do anything about it, ignorance of bad stuff happening is sometimes pretty good for your mental health.
The scientists in charge of advising the government will be getting hourly updates on these numbers, and there's going to be one hell of a lot of planning going on in the background with regard to expanding capacity as and when it's required.
That is why making public all the egg-heads models is a really bad idea. All we will get is wall to wall media about the numbers and wide spread panic....and more than likely the idiot journalists won't understand the probabilistic models and just see one massive figure and put that out.
Journalists will do something similar to playing with those web-based nuclear bomb models where you can plug in London and a full-yield Tsar Bomba (100 MT) and conclude that everyone in the South East will die.
Bloody hell they have just locked down the entire Mercian costal area with food shops and pharmacies the only businesses to stay open
Out of interest, in Italy and Spain are home food delivery services not common place?
Yes but I’ve never used one, l am half a mile over the border in Alicante so unless the same happens here then they will just come here.
I've got family up the hill in Busot - whats the crack in Alicante...? Can't find anything online
Nothing yet in Alicante except schools closed and we’ve been told to stay at home, no indoor meetings of more than 25 but it’s moving quickly given the state of emergency with measures to be anounced tomorrow.
Quick question for Foxy and the other medical / scientific experts on this site. Do you think there is a genetic element to the risk of death from Coronavirus?
It strikes me there are two parts to this pandemic. The virus itself and then the autoimmune reaction to it, which is the problem and which leads to death.
It seems like there are no specific genetic barriers to catching the virus. What struck me more was that, in Europe, the Southern European countries seem to be taking more of a hammering on the death rates whilst it only looks like the Netherlands in the Northern European countries that, so far today, has reported any new deaths.
Now, as others have pointed out here, there may be other factors such as where we are in the virus stage, testing etc but I also wondered whether certain genetric types might be more prone to the autoimmune reaction part.
What got me thinking about this is that 10% of the European population has some form of immunity to HIV but it varies significantly between parts (relatively high in Scandinavia, low around the Med). The cause seems to be the knock-on effects of the Bubonic Plague in the middle ages
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
Leaving aside the issue of whether big public events should be called off at the moment, or whether there's any point in travel restrictions once community transmission is in full swing ... if Liverpool had excluded supporters, how many would have flown over anyway?
I can't see there would have been any point holding games with empty stadia bearing in mind the tendency of supporters to throng the streets anyway.
The volatility of the market is just absurd. The FTSE is bouncing around by a couple of percent every 10 minutes. That used to be a big move in a day. Is there any actual volume to this or is it market makers just moving their indicative prices?
He (and Rory for the LibDemish types) are providing rational caution in coordination with government. Plan is to soften up the public’s d prevent the lines of Farage getting space
Downside case
He’s positioning himself as the gentle critic to pick up the pieces if it goes wrong for Boris (and the U.K.)
Its already gone wrong. No politician can get this right because he's had to go on national TV and tell people that their elderly relatives might die. All the flap about "death tax" and here we are with the actual grim reaper threatening to carry off the old and sick and the government have been strongly advised to let it happen because the alternative would be worse.
Personally I have no interest in party politics right now. This is a national emergency.
"Chinese spokesman accuses the US military of bringing coronavirus to Wuhan as war of words escalates after Trump's national security adviser accused Beijing of cover up"
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
I think the finger of blame would be better pointed at the government than LFC.
It was Liverpool's choice to go ahead, the City v Arsenal game the same night was voluntarily called off. Can't hide behind the Government on that one I'm afraid.
How stupid does the club have to be to think it was fine to go ahead and pack 55,000 fans into a stadium with thousands of people from Madrid in the current circumstances? Madrid was and is a real hotspot and yet the regions airports, hotels and restaurants were flooded with visiting fans from there unnecessarily. Utterly incomprehensible.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
Back of an envelope on ICUs:
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free. Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation). So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people. Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution) So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress. Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important. Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head. I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
I think the finger of blame would be better pointed at the government than LFC.
It was Liverpool's choice to go ahead, the City v Arsenal game the same night was voluntarily called off. Can't hide behind the Government on that one I'm afraid.
How stupid does the club have to be to think it was fine to go ahead and pack 55,000 fans into a stadium with thousands of people from Madrid in the current circumstances? Madrid was and is a real hotspot and yet the regions airports, hotels and restaurants were flooded with visiting fans from there unnecessarily. Utterly incomprehensible.
We'll see. I get the impression Mr Klopp didn't want to play it so I'd be surprised if LFC were pressing for it.
Who do you support? This isn't just silly football-rivalry criticism is it?
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
More correctly, they are rolling a die. But perhaps that would need disambiguation.
You could have just written rolling a dice, as dice is perfectly acceptable as a singular.
Well quite. I did say "more correctly".
No. Either is equally correct. Indeed dice is the preferred usage in Chambers.
I misread that and thought you were talking about barrister chambers. Why would they specify their preferred plural for that, I thought?
Well it's possible that they do, but it's sadly beyond the scope of my expertise
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
Back of an envelope on ICUs:
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free. Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation). So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people. Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution) So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress. Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important. Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head. I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.
Do you really mean UK or are you talking about NHS England. Also did you take into account that at least 75% are in permanent use on other illnesses at any one time.
What relevance does the daily number of cases have, if based on increased testing and the govt scientists think they are out by a factor of 10 anyway?
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
I agree that the statistics we are getting at the moment are completely useless and misleading except in the broad direction and likely to become even more so given the major changes in policy for testing announced yesterday.
What we need are: * the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs * the number of ICUs available by area. *the number discharged. * the number of deaths (which we do get).
ICU information is the single most likely trigger of widespread panic I can think of.
Back of an envelope on ICUs:
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free. Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation). So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people. Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution) So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress. Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important. Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head. I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
Because the informed response is that once they lift the restrictions the cases will start to rise again.
This argument is really between those who think this thing can be beaten and those who believe it has to be managed. All the evidence is that, until we get an effective vaccine, which may be several years down the line, we cannot beat COVID-19. All we can do is mitigate against it through herd immunity.
Is this certain - no. But it looks to be the most likely outcome I which case all places like Korea are doing is saving up more problems for later on.
Was there a recent arrival of people from the Madrid area anywhere into the country, heading into a large event somewhere ? It's escaped my mind where it could be.
What an act of gross stupidity that was was by Liverpool Football Club.
I think the finger of blame would be better pointed at the government than LFC.
It was Liverpool's choice to go ahead, the City v Arsenal game the same night was voluntarily called off. Can't hide behind the Government on that one I'm afraid.
How stupid does the club have to be to think it was fine to go ahead and pack 55,000 fans into a stadium with thousands of people from Madrid in the current circumstances? Madrid was and is a real hotspot and yet the regions airports, hotels and restaurants were flooded with visiting fans from there unnecessarily. Utterly incomprehensible.
We'll see. I get the impression Mr Klopp didn't want to play it so I'd be surprised if LFC were pressing for it.
Who do you support? This isn't just silly football-rivalry criticism is it?
I support Liverpool btw.
No it's because my wife and I are in the vulnerable category and are being cautious. We live in Cheshire and had somebody come to the house to do some work on yesterday and as he was leaving he happened to comment that he's been at the Liverpool game the night before and it had been great before the game, all singing in the pub with the Madrid fans. It pissed me off frankly. He was young enough to not care.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
Some calls will be good, some will be bad. And we won't really know about them all for a year or so. The important thing is the process: are we doing our best with the global information we have at our disposal, and are we letting the experts run the show (hopefully with some Bayesian input, and deferring to the science at all times)?
Where might Johnson go wrong? Populism, certainly. Pandering to the Mail and authoritarians, yes, although I have no doubt that the likes of Patel or Raab would be significantly worse. Pig-headed ignorance of other countries' approaches and methods? Yes, classic Brexiteer error.
I despise Johnson, his government, and his whole party, but I see no evidence that they are making these mistakes. I am reasonably sure that any maverick veering off a science-driven approach will result in resignations from those with integrity, and we are not yet completely rotten in public life.
As SO said before, I think European democracies are doing their best, in good faith. The contrast with Agent Orange in the White House could not be greater.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
More correctly, they are rolling a die. But perhaps that would need disambiguation.
You could have just written rolling a dice, as dice is perfectly acceptable as a singular.
Well quite. I did say "more correctly".
No. Either is equally correct. Indeed dice is the preferred usage in Chambers.
(apols) The dice is cast. The Spring is sprung. The grass is riz. Oi wonder where dem boidies is.
dem boidies on de wing dey say But that's absoid De wing is on de boid!
Comments
At my Uni the exams scheduled for the next two weeks have been cancelled at short notice.
Unilateral actions by EU countries is putting a massive strain on the fundamental structure of the EU and its institutions
I predicted that some days ago
We need the hospitalisation numbers because they are meaningful figures which also speak to the health service’s ability to cope.
At this rate four packs of Andrex will be retailing for £25 a pop on Ebay by the end of next week.
Solidarity! Paper tiger.
The dice is cast.
The Spring is sprung.
The grass is riz.
Oi wonder where dem boidies is.
Keeping everybody fed is going to be a big deal
Then strip them of it.
What we need are:
* the number of covid 19 sufferers currently in ICUs
* the number of ICUs available by area.
*the number discharged.
* the number of deaths (which we do get).
The University of Oxford has announced that it has six students who have tested positive for Covid-19, and that it may switch to “more extensive use of technology for teaching and assessment” next term.
If they do not cut deep I will cancel one and take the basic off the other, and add on sport when it is worth having
Persuading at least some of the member states to put it back together again at the end of all this might prove a challenge.
But also there may be a fundamental difference of opinion on the likelihood or viability of a vaccine. If you don't believe we will get one any time soon then the only way to really control this thing and stop it being an ongoing threat is herd immunity.
It is hard to keep up with the threads
Indeed full time occupation
My dear wife puts her hand up if she wants to ask me something !!!
Making the data available to universities & research institutes to do modelling, and provide scientific scrutiny & criticism. Fine.
Sharing data and implementation practices with other countries. Fine.
Making the evidence & data generally available for pundits & inspirational speakers to do crappy modelling; for Nigel Farage, Rory Stewart & Piers Morgan to use for their vapid self-promotion; and for the BBC to produce simple-minded graphics. No.
You hated Bozo
Then you loved Bozo
So far he’s doing OK
But it may all end very badly
There you are, all up to date.
He (and Rory for the LibDemish types) are providing rational caution in coordination with government. Plan is to soften up the public’s d prevent the lines of Farage getting space
Downside case
He’s positioning himself as the gentle critic to pick up the pieces if it goes wrong for Boris (and the U.K.)
If you can't do anything about it, ignorance of bad stuff happening is sometimes pretty good for your mental health.
He is doing OK and on your last comment, it could equally be his Falklands moment
NEW THREAD
Trump very concerned about the people he has come in contact with who have covid 19
Typical Trump, concerned for himself not those with the virus
He is quite the most malign head of state the US has ever seen
This thread should self isolate
It strikes me there are two parts to this pandemic. The virus itself and then the autoimmune reaction to it, which is the problem and which leads to death.
It seems like there are no specific genetic barriers to catching the virus. What struck me more was that, in Europe, the Southern European countries seem to be taking more of a hammering on the death rates whilst it only looks like the Netherlands in the Northern European countries that, so far today, has reported any new deaths.
Now, as others have pointed out here, there may be other factors such as where we are in the virus stage, testing etc but I also wondered whether certain genetric types might be more prone to the autoimmune reaction part.
What got me thinking about this is that 10% of the European population has some form of immunity to HIV but it varies significantly between parts (relatively high in Scandinavia, low around the Med). The cause seems to be the knock-on effects of the Bubonic Plague in the middle ages
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050325234239.htm
I can't see there would have been any point holding games with empty stadia bearing in mind the tendency of supporters to throng the streets anyway.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/11/our-only-virus-is-psg-fans-defy-coronavirus-stadium-closure-in-paris
Personally I have no interest in party politics right now. This is a national emergency.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8105527/China-government-spokesman-says-U-S-military-bought-virus-China.html
How stupid does the club have to be to think it was fine to go ahead and pack 55,000 fans into a stadium with thousands of people from Madrid in the current circumstances? Madrid was and is a real hotspot and yet the regions airports, hotels and restaurants were flooded with visiting fans from there unnecessarily. Utterly incomprehensible.
UK has 4000 ICUs of which 800 were free.
Finger in air, with deferring elective use and winter's end, we can get to 1800 free for COVID (the exact number here will not negate the order of magnitude calculation).
So, approx 3 ICU beds per 100k people.
Italy, when not under stress, had around 10% of patients on ICU (this has dipped to around 9%, but difficult to know if that is due to health services stress or case evolution)
So, an active infection rate of around 30 per 100k, nationally, regionally, locally, in the UK will create ICU stress.
Many patients needing ICU will already be hospitalised, suggesting a locally available ICU will be much preferable, but I'd imagine ambulance transfers are unavoidable to some degree, and where the ambulance takes the patient in the first place will be important.
Most of Lombardy and a few other provinces are above the Italian ICU pain threshold, which I'm guessing to be around 60 per 100k as they have more ICU per head.
I'm not sure how the load is being spread, but there does seem to be inter-province working - patient 1 was treated out of province.
Who do you support? This isn't just silly football-rivalry criticism is it?
I support Liverpool btw.
This argument is really between those who think this thing can be beaten and those who believe it has to be managed. All the evidence is that, until we get an effective vaccine, which may be several years down the line, we cannot beat COVID-19. All we can do is mitigate against it through herd immunity.
Is this certain - no. But it looks to be the most likely outcome I which case all places like Korea are doing is saving up more problems for later on.
Where might Johnson go wrong? Populism, certainly. Pandering to the Mail and authoritarians, yes, although I have no doubt that the likes of Patel or Raab would be significantly worse. Pig-headed ignorance of other countries' approaches and methods? Yes, classic Brexiteer error.
I despise Johnson, his government, and his whole party, but I see no evidence that they are making these mistakes. I am reasonably sure that any maverick veering off a science-driven approach will result in resignations from those with integrity, and we are not yet completely rotten in public life.
As SO said before, I think European democracies are doing their best, in good faith. The contrast with Agent Orange in the White House could not be greater.
But that's absoid
De wing is on de boid!