It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
We really don't know, because we haven't seen the data. Part of it might be that the Korean government feel they can impose restrictions on the population and they will stick to it, even if that means every 3 months they will have to repeat this. This is one thing the UK government absolutely don't believe the British public will accept.
The Chinese absolutely do feel they can keep doing this, and use their massive state surveillance system to identify new outbreaks and target the shutdowns.
Option one of repeated containment phases is also politically easier.
Repeated containment (sounds impossible anyway) cannot be effective unless the virulent virus vanishes altogether, since as soon as you stop you are back with the problem. Since other countries, including UK intend not to contain we can be sure that the virus continues to exist unless nature makes it go extinct. So the only option then would be a secure form of inoculation, which remains an unknown. SFAICS the relevant data will only be known in the future.
I trust the experts and the herd immunity policy. I wonder if any other countries will follow the British policy.
Maybe I'm just stupid but I'm struggling a bit to understand the 'benefits of herd immunity' policy.
Sir Patrick Valance was on SKY declaring that for 'herd immunity' to set in at least 60% of people need to be infected, maybe even more. The 30-40% not infected in the first place will be comprised of two large groups: - The "hermits" who lived too remote a life (or self-isolated) - The "freaks" who didn't catch it because of their extraordinary genetic disposition If you subtract their numbers (because the 'herd immunity policy' will be of no benefit to them) how many are left? Maybe 10-20%. So the HIP suggests that the infection of 60-70% shall proceed relatively unimpeded to benefit a much smaller number of maybe (at best) 20%. At a casual glance that doesn't really make sense to me.
You try and shuffle the weak into the last 20% and let the stronger carry the burden of gaining immunity to protect them.
It's a bit like the welfare state.
How can you "shuffle the weak into the last 20%" ?
You cannot change the genetic disposition of anyone and to create more 'hermits' would require large resettlement schemes.
isolate the old and vulnerable during the peaks (for months) - so that as few of them get infected as possible.
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
The betting companies are going to struggle if there’s not much sport on, or am I missing something really obvious?
Most of them have big verticals of things like casino games and of course poker...dusts off the old poker gloves....
I’m banned from playing poker.
I’m been self-isolating from online casinos for a few years now. The way they set the games up is dangerously addictive.
Ditto. Every so often I get an email from a bookie saying I’ve got one hundred free spins etc and I’m like bugger off.
They’re basically the same as the machines in the bookies’ shops, make it really easy to spend a lot of money very quickly.
They also seem remarkably insecure, there were times playing poker that I was damn sure I was up against one other person looking at four or five hands.
The local elections approach is an error, I think. They should be delayed.
What about the canvassers? Will no one think of the canvassers?
Bloody stupid decision (bet it will be reversed in a couple of weeks, though campaign expenses begin on March 25th).
Send Raab to the houses with nasty snap your fingers off letterboxes and you’ll be ok.
Oh, I do that anyway: it's good for him. And there's a special place in the underworld for those wretches who put their letterbox at the foot of the door.
The Basingstoke Gazette reports that it was told by an employee of Basingstoke and North Hampshire hospital that the woman, who was showing coronavirus symptoms, was moved into a ward with critically unwell women.
According to the paper:
The unwell patient remained on the ward around critically ill people for hours until results revealed she had coronavirus. Nurses in normal uniform and without protective gear moved her.
The member of staff contacted this newspaper after being appalled by the practice which they claim will lead to a ‘dangerous spread’ of the disease and warns the hospital is on the brink of an outbreak.
Now a patient who was forced to temporarily share the ward with the Covid-19 sufferer is displaying symptoms of the disease.
You can read more on the Basingstoke Gazette website.
I’m currently on my way to the hospital. They are in semi lock down. Unfortunately my Dad is on the inside.
Hmm. Hope all works out well for him. We have just cancelled my mother's 90th birthday party at her old Cambridge college.
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
Evidently somebody thinks something for some unknown reason - end of argument ...
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Indeed, Spanish flu recurred every winter for 3 years early last century
But have they simply deferred the pain to when the controls come off? That's the question.
The only part of that that list couldn't be reasonably continued for an extended period is closing schools, and even that could be continued if you hurriedly transformed the education system and made it it Very Online (which Korea probably could, not sure about everyone else).
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
"Chief scientific adviser warns coronavirus likely to become 'annual virus'"
Not something you say if you think vaccination is 18 months - 2 years away. SARS and MERS (despite the claim we have no vaccine because people have stopped looking for one) suggest it isn't.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that they outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Our government is getting it in the neck because we've done a good job/been lucky so far.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that they outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
It has been reported that one initial cluster in Brighton was "diffused". I would guess that wasn't the only success.
Given that an Australian politician, fresh back from meetings with senior Trump officials, has tested positive for Covid-19, it seems morally certain that it is circulating in the Trump team.
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
"Chief scientific adviser warns coronavirus likely to become 'annual virus'"
Not something you say if you think vaccination is 18 months - 2 years away. SARS and MERS (despite the claim we have no vaccine because people have stopped looking for one) suggest it isn't.
That's different from a vaccine. I don't think anybody thinks a vaccine is coming soon, but some countries believe that effective treatments using existing drugs are possible.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that they outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Our government is getting it in the neck because we've done a good job/been lucky so far.
It seems many would be happier if we had ten times the cases and were therefore taking stronger actions.
Given that an Australian politician, fresh back from meetings with senior Trump officials, has tested positive for Covid-19, it seems morally certain that it is circulating in the Trump team.
Pence of course well over a decade younger than Trump, Biden and Sanders
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
"Chief scientific adviser warns coronavirus likely to become 'annual virus'"
Not something you say if you think vaccination is 18 months - 2 years away. SARS and MERS (despite the claim we have no vaccine because people have stopped looking for one) suggest it isn't.
That's different from a vaccine. I don't think anybody thinks a vaccine is coming soon, but some countries believe that effective treatments using existing drugs are possible.
Despite loads of human trials of various drugs currently underway and to report in the next month or so, the UK government advisors also clearly think that any effective treatments for this aren't coming.
"Chief scientific adviser warns coronavirus likely to become 'annual virus'"
Not something you say if you think vaccination is 18 months - 2 years away. SARS and MERS (despite the claim we have no vaccine because people have stopped looking for one) suggest it isn't.
That's different from a vaccine. I don't think anybody thinks a vaccine is coming soon, but some countries believe that effective treatments using existing drugs are possible.
As do we. But it won’t work for everyone and is impossible if numbers at one time are overwhelming.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
There's not going to be a vaccine ready, tested and manufacturable in quantity this year. Next year, maybe.
There might be some earlier progress in drugs for treatment or at least mitigation of the worst effects in patients, if we're lucky.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Given that an Australian politician, fresh back from meetings with senior Trump officials, has tested positive for Covid-19, it seems morally certain that it is circulating in the Trump team.
Given how scared he looked on that address to the nation the other day, I think he knows that already.
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
What I think is true is that all the countries that have been reasonably successful at containment have had previous failures that have taught them something or lit a fire under their arses - Japan with the Crown Princess response which was full of hilarious fail and other East Asian countries previously with SARS.
However it's not very encouraging for Britain that governments seem to botch their first big outbreak and do OK with the second one, because this is Britain's first.
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
There's not going to be a vaccine ready, tested and manufacturable in quantity this year. Next year, maybe.
There might be some earlier progress in drugs for treatment or at least mitigation of the worst effects in patients, if we're lucky.
You keep hearing rumours that some variant of existing anti-virals or even AIDS medication manages to bring the reaction that causes the bronchial pneumonia under control but so far there is very little follow up. For saving lives in the short run that has to be the key.
Yes, they travel a lot and meet loads of people. Also entertainers like stand-up comics, who stand outside a theatre shaking hands with several hundred people every night.
The local elections approach is an error, I think. They should be delayed.
What about the canvassers? Will no one think of the canvassers?
Bloody stupid decision (bet it will be reversed in a couple of weeks, though campaign expenses begin on March 25th).
Send Raab to the houses with nasty snap your fingers off letterboxes and you’ll be ok.
Oh, I do that anyway: it's good for him. And there's a special place in the underworld for those wretches who put their letterbox at the foot of the door.
I assume that having letterbox at the bottom of the door means that they are Tories - they don't think of other people
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
Would shares in Sony be a good buy? My thinking is people self isolating buying PlayStations!
Mobile phone operators?
Depends if you think this will affect production of PS5. If the launch of that is delayed, that will be very costly for Sony.
Also so many films are being delayed (No Time to Die, A Quiet Place II, The Fast and the Furious 9, and Peter Rabbit 2) I think Sony films via Columbia will also be taking a hit this year
The local elections approach is an error, I think. They should be delayed.
What about the canvassers? Will no one think of the canvassers?
Bloody stupid decision (bet it will be reversed in a couple of weeks, though campaign expenses begin on March 25th).
Send Raab to the houses with nasty snap your fingers off letterboxes and you’ll be ok.
Oh, I do that anyway: it's good for him. And there's a special place in the underworld for those wretches who put their letterbox at the foot of the door.
I assume that having letterbox at the bottom of the door means that they are Tories - they don't think of other people
Clearly giving a sense of MPs' priorities, this subject got Parliamentary airtime at the height of the Brexit drama last year:
The local elections approach is an error, I think. They should be delayed.
What about the canvassers? Will no one think of the canvassers?
Bloody stupid decision (bet it will be reversed in a couple of weeks, though campaign expenses begin on March 25th).
Send Raab to the houses with nasty snap your fingers off letterboxes and you’ll be ok.
Oh, I do that anyway: it's good for him. And there's a special place in the underworld for those wretches who put their letterbox at the foot of the door.
I assume that having letterbox at the bottom of the door means that they are Tories - they don't think of other people
I assumed that it was those who were active in political parties - irritate the opposition and don't bother delivering to your own door.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
It really is an abdication of leadership. Organisations are desperate for guidance in an unprecedented situation, and none is forthcoming.
He’s got the CMO and CS on speed-dial if he wants to speak to them.
Do you think he's actually trying to help the government here - ask the questions so they provide the answers? I don't know
I don't know either, but his words are close to joining in with Piers Morgan and Rory Stewart rather than anything productive that might be helping the government.
As others have said, this is more like a war situation rather than normal politics, influential people such as politicians and media all need to be on the same page otherwise the messaging becomes confused.
The local elections approach is an error, I think. They should be delayed.
What about the canvassers? Will no one think of the canvassers?
Bloody stupid decision (bet it will be reversed in a couple of weeks, though campaign expenses begin on March 25th).
Send Raab to the houses with nasty snap your fingers off letterboxes and you’ll be ok.
Oh, I do that anyway: it's good for him. And there's a special place in the underworld for those wretches who put their letterbox at the foot of the door.
I assume that having letterbox at the bottom of the door means that they are Tories - they don't think of other people
It differentially damages and disincentivises canvassers in proportion to the number of leaflets their party makes them deliver.
Fair point, but basically everyones going to go bankrupt.
they should run better business model
Given their business model, and their relative unimportance in the great scheme of things, and the existential threat to proper businesses doing a useful job I would say that football clubs come fairly near the bottom of the pile for assistance. I exclude Arsenal and Carlisle United of course from all these general observations. They should be bailed out with billions at once.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
It really is an abdication of leadership. Organisations are desperate for guidance in an unprecedented situation, and none is forthcoming.
The guidance is clear, go home if you have a cough or high temperature otherwise carry on as normal.
Once we reach the peak all businesses, shops, pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, museums, stadiums etc could be shut a la Italy and everyone told to work at home or stay home with sick pay bar emergency services and food shops and pharmacies (entry one at a time).
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that they outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Our government is getting it in the neck because we've done a good job/been lucky so far.
It seems many would be happier if we had ten times the cases and were therefore taking stronger actions.
hmmm. the death to confirmed case ratio in the UK is much higher than in Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Finland...
It's plausible that the UK has a much higher proportion of unidentified infections than those countries. Of course, there could be other reasons.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
Clever to 'leave no fingerprints'? Even if the outcome is worse than if they'd taken measures earlier? They shouldn't try to be 'clever' so as to avoid blame, they should do what they believe to be right.
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that they outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Our government is getting it in the neck because we've done a good job/been lucky so far.
It seems many would be happier if we had ten times the cases and were therefore taking stronger actions.
hmmm. the death to confirmed case ratio in the UK is much higher than in Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Finland...
It's plausible that the UK has a much higher proportion of unidentified infections than those countries. Of course, there could be other reasons.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
It really is an abdication of leadership. Organisations are desperate for guidance in an unprecedented situation, and none is forthcoming.
The guidance is clear, go home if you have a cough or high temperature otherwise carry on as normal.
Once we reach the peak all businesses, shops, pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, museums, stadiums etc could be shut a la Italy and everyone told to work at home or stay home with sick pay bar emergency services and food shops and pharmacies (entry one at a time).
We are not there yet though
That's individuals. An organisation - a football club, say - can't go home if it has a cough!
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
It really is an abdication of leadership. Organisations are desperate for guidance in an unprecedented situation, and none is forthcoming.
It is a little subtler than that. It is a style of leadership which intends not to explode into tiny fragments in the next few months. It might even work.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
Do you think Denmark going into lockdown is a sign that their policy has failed?
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
Do you think Denmark going into lockdown is a sign that their policy has failed?
I think they are playing a different strategy to us.
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
Close to my thinking, but I expect there will be partial lockdowns.
I don't expect schools to stay fully open throughout.
I'm afraid what the government does is going to have very little ultimate effect on anything. Think Maggie Simpson in the opening credits, with the toy steering wheel.
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
Very interesting thoughts. Thank you. Let's hope something like this is the worst it gets, with high levels of self organised common sense and a bit of luck. If it is it will be a medical, scientific and political triumph.
He is also a former Health Secretary who served in that role for just under six years, and very recently at that. While I'm willing to give the government a lot of leeway in incredibly difficult circumstances, Jeremy Hunt is someone whose opinion is worth paying attention to as well. He can be expected to be familiar with the relevant considerations.
People simply don’t seem to get the Govt message that this is something we are likely to have to live with for years not days or months. Suspending all economic activity, democracy, sport etc etc just means it can’t be restarted.
Agree. Government policy is to give small amounts of specific and harmless advice (over 70s and cruises, self isolation) and let people/firms/sports/Local authorities to make lots of decisions to lower levels of activity. That way stuff happens without the government's fingerprints on it.
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
It really is an abdication of leadership. Organisations are desperate for guidance in an unprecedented situation, and none is forthcoming.
The guidance is clear, go home if you have a cough or high temperature otherwise carry on as normal.
Once we reach the peak all businesses, shops, pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, museums, stadiums etc could be shut a la Italy and everyone told to work at home or stay home with sick pay bar emergency services and food shops and pharmacies (entry one at a time).
We are not there yet though
That's individuals. An organisation - a football club, say - can't go home if it has a cough!
Did Labour miss the two scientists, stood either side of the PM last night?
Not just that...the public won't be able to understand it (and I doubt most of the Labour front bench will either)...also it will probably have horrific projections, and the only effect of making them available will be to panic the public.
It is like asking Churchill could you please make all operations public please, and then starting screaming and shouting when you see a report saying that storming the beaches will kill 1000s.
It would be interesting to hear an explanation as to why we cannot or don't want to follow suit that is a little more informative than, "because the experts say so".
They have explained it. They think all this does is temporarily put a lid on it, and that in a month or two it will flair up again, rinse and repeat for years to come. They don't believe in 3 months that will be it, finished forever. They think it will now come around every year like normal flu.
If they are right or not, well we are the experiment.
I don't think anyone believes in 3 months that will be it, but the Koreans clearly believe that a radically different approach to the UK is warranted. Why might that be?
The reason surely is that the Korean outbreak got rapidly out of control right at the start, so they needed to stomp hard on it. Same applies to Wuhan and to Italy, and now Spain.
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
At things stand, though, almost all the control rods are out, and the reaction is accelerating. But we have little idea how effective the control rods will be when they are inserted. Comparisons with Chernobyl are warranted!
The South Koreans and others are basically rolling the dice, even on our analysis. If we develop effective anti-virals or a vaccine in the next few months they will have rolled a 6. If not, well, how much worse off are they?
There's not going to be a vaccine ready, tested and manufacturable in quantity this year. Next year, maybe.
There might be some earlier progress in drugs for treatment or at least mitigation of the worst effects in patients, if we're lucky.
You keep hearing rumours that some variant of existing anti-virals or even AIDS medication manages to bring the reaction that causes the bronchial pneumonia under control but so far there is very little follow up. For saving lives in the short run that has to be the key.
"The race to test coronavirus antiviral drugs and vaccines is under way
Kudos to BJ for taking serious political risks, by following scientific and medical recommendations.
You may disagree with the decision not to close schools, but we all have to accept the reason not to do so was not political. Boris did not take the easy route. It would have been so easy to be the strong man. I guess this is freedom a 5 year majority unlocks.
Whether the scientific advise is correct is another matter altogether. For now, the reasoning is subtle and makes sense to me.
They certainly need to share the advice with thoughtful people in Labour & other parties.
When Labour have a leader and front bench who are mainstream democratic politicians this would be a good idea. At the moment it would be about as sensible as sharing your thoughts with Hamas, Mr Trump and Tommy Robinson.
So let's start looking forward a bit to see what's going to happen.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
My daughter was writing out to all non essential treatment patients at Ninewells hospital in Dundee yesterday cancelling appointments. The postponement is indefinite.
I think we will have lockdowns in particular areas where the hospital is under unbearable strain, even although it may be too late for Corvid-19 this should reduce the pressure of other sources of business.
I think that the schools will close at some point, probably May-June when we are supposed to be at peak.
He is also a former Health Secretary who served in that role for just under six years, and very recently at that. While I'm willing to give the government a lot of leeway in incredibly difficult circumstances, Jeremy Hunt is someone whose opinion is worth paying attention to as well. He can be expected to be familiar with the relevant considerations.
If ever there was a time for no backseat drivers, it's now.
Comments
They also seem remarkably insecure, there were times playing poker that I was damn sure I was up against one other person looking at four or five hands.
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/brazilian-official-recently-photographed-with-trump-and-pence-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/
In many ways it's like controlling a nuclear reactor: you want to damp down the number of neutrons produced in a controlled way, because once it starts getting out of control you have to shove your entire set of carbon rods in pretty damned quick or else your exponential increase become blow-out.
In the UK we've been fortunate, or perhaps have handled it particularly well, in that the initial containment phase has worked well and so we are starting from a more controlled base. It's clear what the government is trying to do - keep the spread steady but not eliminate it entirely - but of course calibrating the response so that you get just the right amount of spread is going to be tricky.
Not something you say if you think vaccination is 18 months - 2 years away. SARS and MERS (despite the claim we have no vaccine because people have stopped looking for one) suggest it isn't.
There might be some earlier progress in drugs for treatment or at least mitigation of the worst effects in patients, if we're lucky.
Mobile phone operators?
However it's not very encouraging for Britain that governments seem to botch their first big outbreak and do OK with the second one, because this is Britain's first.
https://twitter.com/NewLondonTimes/status/1238232312447291392?s=20
It is one thing to order all schools to close in response to public panic. The problem would be on what grounds to open them again if this is still around in 2/4/6/9 months. Same with everything. Nudge, delegate, leave no fingerprints, wait, stand next to top medics and scientists, look solemn. They have done OK so far.
Big cruise firms are abandoning cruises right now/footie is off. They will take a huge hit. The government has had no part in ordering this to happen. Clever stuff.
He’s got the CMO and CS on speed-dial if he wants to speak to them.
Definitely another one in the, "this cannot be stopped" camp.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46895002
As others have said, this is more like a war situation rather than normal politics, influential people such as politicians and media all need to be on the same page otherwise the messaging becomes confused.
Clever.
https://twitter.com/emophilips/status/1231003965476700161?s=21
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1238451121489928193?s=21
Once we reach the peak all businesses, shops, pubs, hotels, cafes, restaurants, museums, stadiums etc could be shut a la Italy and everyone told to work at home or stay home with sick pay bar emergency services and food shops and pharmacies (entry one at a time).
We are not there yet though
It's plausible that the UK has a much higher proportion of unidentified infections than those countries. Of course, there could be other reasons.
Even if the outcome is worse than if they'd taken measures earlier?
They shouldn't try to be 'clever' so as to avoid blame, they should do what they believe to be right.
I think schools will stay open throughout unless we are totally on our knees. I have been preparing my wife for that who is a teacher. They will cancel exams/Ofsted/everything and will be babysitting until summer.
Universities will slowly move to WFH and/or terms might be suspended until September. Students are doing this themselves anyway.
Public events will cancel themselves, the bottom-up cancelling is probably what the government intends anyway. Pubs will stay open but people won't go.
WFH will start en masse, again, mainly based on individuals and companies acting sensibly. The civil service will be interesting and one to watch out for.
The movement of people will not close down like Italy and broadly we will try and keep the show on the road for as long as possible.
Hospitals will be places you won't want to go. All non-acute care will basically stop. All doctors will be doing the same thing - treating patients with coronavirus. GP surgeries will go mainly digital within the next few weeks, with a few appointments for those who don't have iPads.
If we do do a lockdown then that will be a sign of failure of this policy.
I don't expect schools to stay fully open throughout.
I'm afraid what the government does is going to have very little ultimate effect on anything. Think Maggie Simpson in the opening credits, with the toy steering wheel.
It is like asking Churchill could you please make all operations public please, and then starting screaming and shouting when you see a report saying that storming the beaches will kill 1000s.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532734-000-the-race-to-test-coronavirus-antiviral-drugs-and-vaccines-is-under-way/#ixzz6GZlsWtC4"
You may disagree with the decision not to close schools, but we all have to accept the reason not to do so was not political. Boris did not take the easy route. It would have been so easy to be the strong man. I guess this is freedom a 5 year majority unlocks.
Whether the scientific advise is correct is another matter altogether. For now, the reasoning is subtle and makes sense to me.
I think we will have lockdowns in particular areas where the hospital is under unbearable strain, even although it may be too late for Corvid-19 this should reduce the pressure of other sources of business.
I think that the schools will close at some point, probably May-June when we are supposed to be at peak.