Maybe the cabinet minister appearing on Newsnight could have made that point during the program.
Oh...
The BBC has a remit to be fair and accurate. Ministers are accountable to parliament, all of whose proceedings are public, and voters, not to imitators of the Pyongyang Times masquerading as news organisations.
A lot of the media still seem to be playing this is as if it normal times and the usual game of embarrass the politician. This is a war, it is simple as that.
The more I look at that chart, the more despicable, I think it is:
1. Countries only seem to have been included if their entry can have Xs added (where are The Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, etc. etc.
2. The X's (and certainly the x's) don't seem to be consistent and often relate to individual decisions taken by mayors/governors of specific regions.
3. Conversely, the UK's approach of closing affected schools, cancelling mass gatherings in some regions (e.g. Scotland) doesn't warrant an x for some reason.
The chart is just populist rabble-rousing of the worse kind imo.
That's on Lewis Goddal, Newsnights bew policy editor. A very biased "journalist".
Maybe the cabinet minister appearing on Newsnight could have made that point during the program.
Oh...
The BBC has a remit to be fair and accurate. Ministers are accountable to parliament, all of whose proceedings are public, and voters, not to imitators of the Pyongyang Times masquerading as news organisations.
The table is accurate, and Newsnight's discussion has been pretty comprehensive.
I despise Farage, and would hesitate to give him airtime over this. But your rhetoric is ridiculous.
The more I look at that chart, the more despicable, I think it is:
1. Countries only seem to have been included if their entry can have Xs added (where are The Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, etc. etc.
2. The X's (and certainly the x's) don't seem to be consistent and often relate to individual decisions taken by mayors/governors of specific regions.
3. Conversely, the UK's approach of closing affected schools, cancelling mass gatherings in some regions (e.g. Scotland) doesn't warrant an x for some reason.
The chart is just populist rabble-rousing of the worse kind imo.
It's just a chart to illustrate the point we are taking a different approach to most. That is undoubtedly true.
It is true but as you say designed to illustrate a pre conceived point. The BBC should be showing a neutrally put together chart, and that would look different as pointed out above. Using misleading charts to exaggerate a valid point may just about be appropriate for companies or political parties, but its definitely not appropriate for the BBC charter of informing and educating.
There is no neutrality necessary. We are objectively taking a different strategy to other countries.
Why are you getting so hung up about a chart which makes that objective point on Newsnight? If the viewer comes away from that segment informed that we are taking a different strategy to most other countries, then they have correctly been informed.
I can't help but think a lot of the armchair armchair critics on here are just undertaking some displacement activity to occupy theirs minds rather than focusing on the train-crash heading our way.
It doesn't matter what Newsnight really says or does. But it would likely be a far better use of time now discussing what micro plans all our communities, families, schools, hospitals should be putting together given the master plan and framework the government has decided upon.
I note the advice is for a "New and persistent cough". One of my colleagues has had a cough for the last two years !
It turns out LuckyGuy's advice on no account to stop smoking is 1% less insane than it sounds, because a dry persistent cough is exactly what you get for 3 or 4 weeks after stopping.
I didn't.. I just get more colds
Actually to qualify what I said: the post cessation cough is your defences coming back to life so this is an argument in favour of stopping now; my point was just that the coughing is going to get you false positive diagnoses from other people.
I trust the experts and the herd immunity policy. I wonder if any other countries will follow the British policy.
I think this is one of the biggest decisions taken in our countries modern history. Brexit is a total non-event compared to this.
It will go down in the history books of either the British made an incredible and brave call that worked out better than all its comparable countries or it killed 10,000s / 100,000s of people unnecessarily.
Anyone who is old or has any heart or lung condition needs to go and do a big shop right now. Get a freezer like I did. It will come in two days. Get the pasta, the rice the pet food. Get a load of frozen veg , fruit and meat.
Then prepare to lock yourself away for 6 months. Dont let people in. If they have something they drop it off outside.
Buy some books, some paints and a Netflix subscription. Start being kind to your spouse. Get a bread maker too, they are ace.
Any recommendations for books, films, mini series very welcome!
Aside from the obvious, Better Call Saul, The Sinner, Money Heist, Ozarks, Occupied, Nobel, Victim Number 8.
Choose your viewing with care. A few years ago I went out on my own to my place in rural Hungary in the depths of winter to check everything was ok. All was fine, so I settled down on the Saturday night in my front room in front of my wood fire, with the lights low. The village is a small one with minimal street lighting and it was dark outside.
The satellite TV had nothing worth watching on so I looked through the pile of DVDs to see what I hadn't seen. I found 28 Days Later, which had excellent reviews. Great, I thought, and put it on.
It turns out that 28 Days Later is not a great film to watch on your own in a darkened room with a flickering fire in a dark remote village. I lasted about 30 minutes.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
Maybe the cabinet minister appearing on Newsnight could have made that point during the program.
Oh...
The BBC has a remit to be fair and accurate. Ministers are accountable to parliament, all of whose proceedings are public, and voters, not to imitators of the Pyongyang Times masquerading as news organisations.
The table is accurate, and Newsnight's discussion has been pretty comprehensive.
I despise Farage, and would hesitate to give him airtime over this. But your rhetoric is ridiculous.
The BBC must be literally bonkers to give Farage airtime on this. He has no expertise, represents a 'party' with no elected individuals and is a uniquely divisive figure.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
I am no fan of Boris and is lying and self centred nature. However, I genuinely believe if him and Big Dom were trying to plot a totally different course to the two egg-heads leading this, they would be making it clear this isn't their decision.
If I was an academic in their position and the PM just binned all our recommendations, there is no way you go over the waterfall in their boat.
Instead, again this morning they are out front and centre saying herd immunity is the policy we have decided after modelling this since start of January.
Yes, a number of people will have to die over the coming months because our cash-starved NHS will be unable to save a greater number of people if the virus returns during the winter.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
Returned to London last night after 12 days in Aberdeen with my brother his wife and their newborn son (2 weeks old). My nephew's doing well, and seems to take after his dad! My brother is working from home for the foreseeable future.
Managed to do the whole Aberdeen to Inverness rail line last Friday (reached only as far Inverurie back in January due to time constraints), but not sure if and when I can do Inverness to Kyle and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. They are the last "proper" weekday rail journeys I need to do the whole National Rail network. Mum is in her seventies, and has urged me not to go on "unnecessary" train journeys, and obviously I won't, but there you go.
I can really feel for TSE, so close to attaining a cherished goal this season, but being thwarted by concerns over the virus!
And I expect on the 4th April the season will be declared over as this crisis will still be rampaging across the world
The big question is what happens to Liverpool and the rest of promotion and relegation and european qualification
It's a tricky question but hard to see this season not being written off and start again in August, or whenever it is safe to do so, with the leagues as they were at the beginning of this season.
I cannot see anything but this season is over, and of course the new season may be delayed as well
I have no idea how promotion, relegation and Liverpool are resolved. I can see lots of clubs litigating and frankly a legal minefield
I am sure the Court of Appeal and the QBD have nothing more useful to do than hear endless litigation about kicking a ball around. Maybe we should give them jurisdiction over LBW decisions during Ashes series as well.
All those contracts signed by the clubs with the leagues and sponsors etc are generally governed under English law.
I'm not sure LBW decisions are governed under English law.
Really? There's prolly a contract for a test series which says 5 matches shall be played under the Laws of Cricket - incorporation by reference.
Our entire lives are governed by English law; and the entire practice of normal people is to keep well out of English law and litigation's way. This is mostly done by playing nicely, reaching sensible agreements and keeping a sense of proportion.
You don't understand, some clubs will go out of business if the season is cancelled/postponed.
You'll be damn sure they'll try every legal route to stop that happening.
Or each player in the top 6 clubs could donate 1 weeks salary to the EFL clubs and everything would be hunky dory.....
Wouldn't scratch the surface. Players are well paid but not that well paid.
It would be about £13-15m. Shrewsbury in League 1 are looking at £200-250k lost income. Champs clubs can generally look after themselves as owned by multi millionaire owners accepting a big financial loss for small chance of the Premiership riches.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
I am no fan of Boris and is lying and self centred nature. However, I genuinely believe if him and Big Dom were trying to plot a totally different course to the two egg-heads leading this, they would be making it clear this isn't their decision.
If I was an academic in their position and the PM just binned all our recommendations, there is no way you go over the waterfall in their boat.
Instead, again this morning they are out front and centre saying herd immunity is the policy we have decided after modelling this since start of January.
Yes, a number of people will have to die over the coming months because our cash-starved NHS will be unable to save a greater number of people if the virus returns during the winter.
The government could have been spending way more per year for the past 10 years and it wouldn't scratch the surface on this issue. China had to build 16 new facilities in just one city to try to even treat people needing help.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
No, it's been modelled. Hari Seldon has done the maths.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
Maybe the cabinet minister appearing on Newsnight could have made that point during the program.
Oh...
The BBC has a remit to be fair and accurate. Ministers are accountable to parliament, all of whose proceedings are public, and voters, not to imitators of the Pyongyang Times masquerading as news organisations.
The table is accurate, and Newsnight's discussion has been pretty comprehensive.
I despise Farage, and would hesitate to give him airtime over this. But your rhetoric is ridiculous.
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
I am no fan of Boris and is lying and self centred nature. However, I genuinely believe if him and Big Dom were trying to plot a totally different course to the two egg-heads leading this, they would be making it clear this isn't their decision.
If I was an academic in their position and the PM just binned all our recommendations, there is no way you go over the waterfall in their boat.
Instead, again this morning they are out front and centre saying herd immunity is the policy we have decided after modelling this since start of January.
Yes, a number of people will have to die over the coming months because our cash-starved NHS will be unable to save a greater number of people if the virus returns during the winter.
Well I hope not, but 'herd immunity' does require that a lot of people catch the virus.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
Who says it is spurious?
because obviously it is spurious....people will not tire of social distancing if it protects them.....
this is not the boy who cried wolf....the wolf is fucking and abouts, rampaging around in full view
btw- my wife works on medical journals...she has just read that at least 10% of CV get pre-symptoms of nausea/ bloated stomachs/ the runs.....
no one has even mentioned that....
When you look at the literature, 10% get all sorts of different things. It is literally a list of anything you get when you aren't well.
The problem at the moment is all this large scale data is only coming from one source, Wuhan in China, where it is highly densely populated, generally poor public health and hygiene. It is far from certain for instance that people complaining of the runs aren't due to something else.
Imagine trying to disconnect causation from correlation in a place like India, where people have all sorts of minor aliments all year round because of the pollution, sanitation, etc.
Maybe the cabinet minister appearing on Newsnight could have made that point during the program.
Oh...
The BBC has a remit to be fair and accurate. Ministers are accountable to parliament, all of whose proceedings are public, and voters, not to imitators of the Pyongyang Times masquerading as news organisations.
The table is accurate, and Newsnight's discussion has been pretty comprehensive.
I despise Farage, and would hesitate to give him airtime over this. But your rhetoric is ridiculous.
The table is NOT accurate.
At the very least there should be a small x against the UK for mass gatherings since Scotalnd is putting a ban in place, and last time I looked Scotland is a major constituent part of the UK.
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Been getting those ball week including the fact I can get refunds on prepaid bookings.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
I am no fan of Boris and is lying and self centred nature. However, I genuinely believe if him and Big Dom were trying to plot a totally different course to the two egg-heads leading this, they would be making it clear this isn't their decision.
If I was an academic in their position and the PM just binned all our recommendations, there is no way you go over the waterfall in their boat.
Instead, again this morning they are out front and centre saying herd immunity is the policy we have decided after modelling this since start of January.
Yes, a number of people will have to die over the coming months because our cash-starved NHS will be unable to save a greater number of people if the virus returns during the winter.
The government could have been spending way more per year for the past 10 years and it wouldn't scratch the surface on this issue. China had to build 16 new facilities in just one city to try to even treat people needing help.
China is not the only country taking a different approach to us.
FWIW Having reflected on it overnight I think the government's strategy is the right one long term HOWEVER once our infections/deaths go past several countries the pressure on the government will be to reverse ferret and I'm not sure Boris Johnson has the ability to stay unpopular in his locker.
So we'll get the worst of all worlds on our pandemic response.
Unfortunately I think that might be a reasonable assessment of Boris. I hope for all our sakes we are both wrong.
I have more hope. I think if Boris was going to go populist he would have done it already. He seems to have grown a spine.
Returned to London last night after 12 days in Aberdeen with my brother his wife and their newborn son (2 weeks old). My nephew's doing well, and seems to take after his dad!
You mean he drinks too much then falls asleep, spark out, flat on his back with vomit gently oozing from the side of his mouth?
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
China is not the only country taking a different approach to us.
Erhhh, that is the point I was making. I don't believe this herd immunity policy is driven by NHS underfunding. If they thought it was a 3 month thing and done, we could lock everybody down, let it pass and then build some new capacity.
The call the government have made is that isn't their prediction. They clearly believe this is here to stay for years, there will be no vaccine and therefore the optimal approach is herd immunity.
FWIW Having reflected on it overnight I think the government's strategy is the right one long term HOWEVER once our infections/deaths go past several countries the pressure on the government will be to reverse ferret and I'm not sure Boris Johnson has the ability to stay unpopular in his locker.
So we'll get the worst of all worlds on our pandemic response.
Unfortunately I think that might be a reasonable assessment of Boris. I hope for all our sakes we are both wrong.
I have more hope. I think if Boris was going to go populist he would have done it already. He seems to have grown a spine.
He certainly looks like have to do a real job is aging him rapidly.
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
Me too. The CMO basically said "it's ten times worse than the figures show". That's the exact opposite of what you would expect if they were under some political pressure to present a rosier scenario.
My wife and I are pretty much in the same boat as Mike and his, except that neither of us has a bike to get on.
I think Boris and his team are doing better than okay on strategy, and I buy into the rationale for it. It's gonna be politically difficult if, in the short term, the strategy seems flawed in comparison to those pursuing a different strategy, but again, this is flagged. Boris has the majority and, I hope, the balls to see it through, but also to be flexible when science suggests he should be.
The reporter on Sky has said that there is a panel of experts behind the Chief Medical Adviser and Chief Scientific Adviser who are advising HMG and Boris and they say a few weeks school closures will not be effective as once schools close they are likely to be closed until the Autumn term
By delaying the closures it does give students a chance to complete their studies and does not send an earthquake through peoples employment
I think so many, if not all of, these sporting and other cancellations for a few weeks will just simply be extended for months. Any idea that across Europe and the World a few weeks closure will be met with an immediate return to normal is for the birdd
btw- my wife works on medical journals...she has just read that at least 10% of CV get pre-symptoms of nausea/ bloated stomachs/ the runs.....
no one has even mentioned that....
We have discussed that a few times. This could be the 'furin spike' researchers have noted on the virus, which potentially binds to receptors found on cells in the intestine.
Speculative at this point, but intestinal symptoms have been, as you say, regularly reported.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
Who says it is spurious?
because obviously it is spurious....people will not tire of social distancing if it protects them.....
this is not the boy who cried wolf....the wolf is fucking and abouts, rampaging around in full view
LOL. "because it's obviously spurious"?
On the one hand we have the CMO who is worried about exactly this. On the other we have you who says it's not an issue "because obviously"
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Been getting those ball week including the fact I can get refunds on prepaid bookings.
Indeed. Would be a Great Opportunity if i didn't book so far ahead that my semi-flex bookings are so bloody cheap as to make it not worth while fiddling with it
The more I look at that chart, the more despicable, I think it is:
1. Countries only seem to have been included if their entry can have Xs added (where are The Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, etc. etc.
2. The X's (and certainly the x's) don't seem to be consistent and often relate to individual decisions taken by mayors/governors of specific regions.
3. Conversely, the UK's approach of closing affected schools, cancelling mass gatherings in some regions (e.g. Scotland) doesn't warrant an x for some reason.
The chart is just populist rabble-rousing of the worse kind imo.
And the problem is there will be zero consequences for the perpetrators
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Been getting those ball week including the fact I can get refunds on prepaid bookings.
Yeah, Cunard have generously offered me a 'Future Cruise Credit' rather than a refund... but they'll have to refund me when they're not actually sailing in May.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
How about HIV?
How about it ?
So many people looking for a vaccine for so long, that the nasty little joke about more people making a living from it than dying from it probably applies.
40 years. No vaccine. Why should Covid be any easier?
This is in no way trying to be a controversial point. What is the answer?
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
FWIW Having reflected on it overnight I think the government's strategy is the right one long term HOWEVER once our infections/deaths go past several countries the pressure on the government will be to reverse ferret and I'm not sure Boris Johnson has the ability to stay unpopular in his locker.
So we'll get the worst of all worlds on our pandemic response.
Unfortunately I think that might be a reasonable assessment of Boris. I hope for all our sakes we are both wrong.
I have more hope. I think if Boris was going to go populist he would have done it already. He seems to have grown a spine.
He certainly looks like have to do a real job is aging him rapidly.
If you saw the projections he is seeing you might age too.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
Read what I have written today. Then you should understand.
The more I look at that chart, the more despicable, I think it is:
1. Countries only seem to have been included if their entry can have Xs added (where are The Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Canada, Switzerland, Australia, etc. etc.
2. The X's (and certainly the x's) don't seem to be consistent and often relate to individual decisions taken by mayors/governors of specific regions.
3. Conversely, the UK's approach of closing affected schools, cancelling mass gatherings in some regions (e.g. Scotland) doesn't warrant an x for some reason.
The chart is just populist rabble-rousing of the worse kind imo.
And the problem is there will be zero consequences for the perpetrators
The most laughable thing about the Italian lockdown was you could self-certify reasons to travel, and if you were unlucky the police might question your reasons and if they could prove you were being naughty fine you.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
I think.. I think.... What expertise do you have in this area?
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
I am sceptical of the idea people can't stay in their homes for 3 months. But they have now made it clear today, the policy is herd immunity, they want people to catch it.
This is the call. Get it now, get herd immunity or in their opinion all that happens is you put a lid on it for 2-3 months, then it pops up and by next winter we are in worse position.
That is massive call. You are literally saying we are going to have 10,000s of deaths now, because it is better in the long run. They are clearly convinced that there is no vaccine coming, there is no treatments that will really work and so the only future is that the population is naturally hardened.
Almost all real life problems involve more than one area of expertise. As soon as you have input from more than one field somebody needs to synthesise the expert output.
In any one area, different experts often - almost always - have different views. As soon as that happens, somebody needs to discriminate.
Decisions belong to whoever they belong to. The duty of the government to decide and to choose is not delegable to experts or to anyone else.
If you think you are not bright enough to synthesise or discriminate, you may well be right, in which case leave the conversation to others who can.
The "expertise only" theory also falls into the same rabbit hole that logical positivism did. It is self-defeating because in its own terms it must be the output of experts to be valid, so you need an expertologist to validate it. But then to know whether to trust him you need an expert on expertologists. And to know whether to trust him...
True (and banal) story:
I was told 7 years ago by a competent senior consultant oncologist - as expert an expert as you get - that I should not have a colonoscopy (which he would therefore not arrange for me to have) because there was no real possibility that I had cancer.
His secretary booked the colonoscopy by mistake and I thought wtf, let's have it anyway to be on the safe side (Cries of yebbut I suppose you thought you knew better than the expert huh, and went and wasted NHS time and money).
I had cancer. I am now alive. There is no doubt at all that without that colonoscopy happening then, the disease would have progressed from stage 3 to 4 before anyone knew about it, and that would have been that.
And that isn't a freak 1 in 100,000 case which in no way invalidates the overall point, it's a banal everyday illustration of the proper way to process expert advice. Note in particular:
No suggestion he was incompetent - he was just on this occasion wrong.
His expertise is oncology, but this was a question about oncology and about my risk tolerance levels. Thanks partly to his input I know more about the *combination* of those things than he does.
His interests and mine are largely but not exactly aligned. He wants to minimise cancer in the totality of his potential patients, I want to minimise cancer in me. We therefore assign different values to me getting that colonoscopy slot.
So all in all "I suppose you think you know better than the experts" is about as intelligent a position, as saying you have had enough of them.
I do modelling similar to what is being done here for a living.
It is complex and there is likely to be incredible uncertainty. This is a judgement call and it has been made. We will all have to deal with that the best way we can.
But we should all be clear about how we should be protecting ourselves.
Public health guidance is couched to be targeted at the average person in the population. I think, on the whole, most people on here are slightly better informed.
As you know, what is going to happen is extremely serious and I urge everyone if they haven't yet taken this seriously to start doing their own individualised plan. Don't trust the government to act in your own best interests, they are simply now counting numbers, like they counted the numbers of Tommys during WW1.
Exactly right. Do what you need to do to survive.
I imagine that the behavioural scientists have factored in how many will be driven by the survival instinct. When planning, they must also have known how many they need to follow them, to carry on spreading this. They must surely realise that millions, potentially, will go into their own lockdown now. The ones that don’t, who think they are at a low risk, plus those who are willing to risk their lives? Well, they are the ones who have volunteered to try and get that herd immunity. Good luck to them.
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Been getting those ball week including the fact I can get refunds on prepaid bookings.
Yeah, Cunard have generously offered me a 'Future Cruise Credit' rather than a refund... but they'll have to refund me when they're not actually sailing in May.
(Er, provided Carnival don't go bust of course )
That's why you always put the deposit (at least £100) on a credit card - I have one just for that purpose..
The reporter on Sky has said that there is a panel of experts behind the Chief Medical Adviser and Chief Scientific Adviser who are advising HMG and Boris and they say a few weeks school closures will not be effective as once schools close they are likely to be closed until the Autumn term
By delaying the closures it does give students a chance to complete their studies and does not send an earthquake through peoples employment
I think so many, if not all of, these sporting and other cancellations for a few weeks will just simply be extended for months. Any idea that across Europe and the World a few weeks closure will be met with an immediate return to normal is for the birdd
I think that may well be right. Another thing team Boris is doing is making the worst case scenario clear (for those with ears to hear), outlining the overall sombrero flattening strategy, making minimal compulsory orders, and allowing a free society to close itself down (like sport is doing right now) without unnecessary compulsion. A good deal of compulsion could come later at a point when the libertarians will be more accepting of it.
It may not work at all, but then that's true of all countries.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
One reason is that closing schools could lead to more children being looked after by grandparents. Not a good idea when children don't usually suffer from the virus but could pass it on to older people.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
How about HIV?
How about it ?
So many people looking for a vaccine for so long, that the nasty little joke about more people making a living from it than dying from it probably applies.
40 years. No vaccine. Why should Covid be any easier?
This is in no way trying to be a controversial point. What is the answer?
And even when you have got a vaccine, there are ~ 7.8 billion people who will want it urgently.
I guess every industrial country will build new factories dedicated to making the vaccine.
It looks as though even a year is super-super-optimistic to have this readily and commercially available.
Anyone who is old or has any heart or lung condition needs to go and do a big shop right now. Get a freezer like I did. It will come in two days. Get the pasta, the rice the pet food. Get a load of frozen veg , fruit and meat.
Then prepare to lock yourself away for 6 months. Dont let people in. If they have something they drop it off outside.
Buy some books, some paints and a Netflix subscription. Start being kind to your spouse. Get a bread maker too, they are ace.
Any recommendations for books, films, mini series very welcome!
Aside from the obvious, Better Call Saul, The Sinner, Money Heist, Ozarks, Occupied, Nobel, Victim Number 8.
Choose your viewing with care. A few years ago I went out on my own to my place in rural Hungary in the depths of winter to check everything was ok. All was fine, so I settled down on the Saturday night in my front room in front of my wood fire, with the lights low. The village is a small one with minimal street lighting and it was dark outside.
The satellite TV had nothing worth watching on so I looked through the pile of DVDs to see what I hadn't seen. I found 28 Days Later, which had excellent reviews. Great, I thought, and put it on.
It turns out that 28 Days Later is not a great film to watch on your own in a darkened room with a flickering fire in a dark remote village. I lasted about 30 minutes.
I am halfway through the second series of The Detectorists. Very good in my opinion, I am really enjoying it.
Focusing on a group of nerds with an out of proportion interest in their hobby - might be a bit close to home for some!
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
How about HIV?
HIV can be treated and can be managed. It is not a death sentence and is not debilitating now.
There is no reason at all why they should not extend. This is just like Boris and his refusing to extend during the Brexit negotiations. It is pointless grandstanding.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
(Free) people can’t be locked up indefinitely. Do it too early and you risk people losing the will to isolate right at the peak of the outbreak.
that argument is ridiculous...we know social distancing reduces the spread of this disease....
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
Who says it is spurious?
because obviously it is spurious....people will not tire of social distancing if it protects them.....
this is not the boy who cried wolf....the wolf is fucking and abouts, rampaging around in full view
And yet only yesterday there was the story of the Italian lady who said her visit to the hairdressers was an essential journey.....
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
How about HIV?
How about it ?
So many people looking for a vaccine for so long, that the nasty little joke about more people making a living from it than dying from it probably applies.
40 years. No vaccine. Why should Covid be any easier?
This is in no way trying to be a controversial point. What is the answer?
Because it is an entirely different kind of virus. The AIDS virus is a particular difficult one as it attacks immune cells.
There has been some speculation about immune involvement with Covid 19, but the fact that several groups have potential vaccines they are trying to put into human trials suggests they haven't encountered those kind of hurdles.
Today's trend is for hotel chains and all manner of online retailers sending round robins to every customer with news of what they are doing about the virus. Packages are safe, hotel rooms are safe, etc
Been getting those ball week including the fact I can get refunds on prepaid bookings.
Yeah, Cunard have generously offered me a 'Future Cruise Credit' rather than a refund... but they'll have to refund me when they're not actually sailing in May.
(Er, provided Carnival don't go bust of course )
That's why you always put the deposit (at least £100) on a credit card - I have one just for that purpose..
Tbh I am not sure that would work if the deposit is paid a year ahead of the loss.
But in any event I can fall back on ATOL protection apparently.
Anyone who is old or has any heart or lung condition needs to go and do a big shop right now. Get a freezer like I did. It will come in two days. Get the pasta, the rice the pet food. Get a load of frozen veg , fruit and meat.
Then prepare to lock yourself away for 6 months. Dont let people in. If they have something they drop it off outside.
Buy some books, some paints and a Netflix subscription. Start being kind to your spouse. Get a bread maker too, they are ace.
Any recommendations for books, films, mini series very welcome!
Aside from the obvious, Better Call Saul, The Sinner, Money Heist, Ozarks, Occupied, Nobel, Victim Number 8.
Choose your viewing with care. A few years ago I went out on my own to my place in rural Hungary in the depths of winter to check everything was ok. All was fine, so I settled down on the Saturday night in my front room in front of my wood fire, with the lights low. The village is a small one with minimal street lighting and it was dark outside.
The satellite TV had nothing worth watching on so I looked through the pile of DVDs to see what I hadn't seen. I found 28 Days Later, which had excellent reviews. Great, I thought, and put it on.
It turns out that 28 Days Later is not a great film to watch on your own in a darkened room with a flickering fire in a dark remote village. I lasted about 30 minutes.
I am halfway through the second series of The Detectorists. Very good in my opinion, I am really enjoying it.
Focusing on a group of nerds with an out of proportion interest in their hobby - might be a bit close to home for some!
Labour is abdicating it's responsibility as an opposition at this point by not having Starmer in more quickly.
At least a crisis like this might persuade even the loony left to vote for a serious candidate. Please could we have something like two party politics back again?
The thing I can't get my head around with this herd immunity policy and a point Hunt made is why aren't we telling people you can't go and visit Granny every week like usual. Over 60s need to be told a lot more than don't go on an Easter holiday, it should be don't go out if you don't have to.
If they think the risk to under 40s is minimal, sure lets get it through that population, but why are not making it clear the vulnerable need to be out the way for the next 3-4 months, especially if the policy is to get 60% of the population to contract it.
We know from Seattle and Australia, you get this in a care home and you will be raking up the body count.
My concerns are: (1) the assumption that any attempt to eradicate the virus is doomed to fail and simply postpones misery. (2) the Iceberg assumption on which the current model is built. (3) the possibility of effective anti-virals being found or a vaccine being developed with the result pain deferred is pain saved. (4) The risk that mutation of the virus means that our very hard won herd immunity has limited effectiveness.
None of these means that the government is wrong. I have absolute respect for their dedication and focus on this. But it is frankly foolish not to worry when the price we are being asked to pay is so high.
The Chinese are now bobbling along at roughly 20 new cases a day. They have 13.5k active cases with a very high percentage of critical so there are more deaths to come. But their total infections (recorded) are 81K, less than 0.1% of their population. Does that not make you pause? Our assumption is that somewhere between 60 and 80% will get this. They are less than 0.1%. How is that possible?
I am sceptical of the idea people can't stay in their homes for 3 months. But they have now made it clear today, the policy is herd immunity, they want people to catch it.
This is the call. Get it now, get herd immunity or in their opinion all that happens is you put a lid on it for 2-3 months, then it pops up and by next winter we are in worse position.
That is massive call. You are literally saying we are going to have 10,000s of deaths now, because it is better in the long run. They are clearly convinced that there is no vaccine coming, there is no treatments that will really work and so the only future is that the population is naturally hardened.
I think it's probably also driven by the belief that there are a lot more cases out there, and that the fatality rate will be towards the lower end of the predictions. The CMO has said several times he thinks it will be below 1%.
Those who fancy a bit of 'herd immunity' can apparently get paid £3,500 for it by the University of London, which wants vaccine-testing guinea pigs, or so I read on here.
Liverpool denied the earliest Premier League victory ever record they were on the way to smashing.
Probably but not certainly. They need another 6 points. It would have been better for supporting a claim to have "won it" before the season is called off if they had got those 6 points.
As I understand it there is no vaccine for SARS (2003) MERS (2012) or indeed HIV (1980s), despite people looking for them. Why is it not magical thinking to be discussing which quarter of 2021 is going to bring us a Covid vaccine?
Development on SARS/MERS vaccines effectively stopped when the epidemics stopped. There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
How about HIV?
How about it ?
So many people looking for a vaccine for so long, that the nasty little joke about more people making a living from it than dying from it probably applies.
40 years. No vaccine. Why should Covid be any easier?
This is in no way trying to be a controversial point. What is the answer?
Because it is an entirely different kind of virus. The AIDS virus is a particular difficult one as it attacks immune cells.
There has been some speculation about immune involvement with Covid 19, but the fact that several groups have potential vaccines they are trying to put into human trials suggests they haven't encountered those kind of hurdles.
OK
But the internet thinks research into SARS and MERS vaccines is ongoing, and MERS you'd expect to have Saudi Arabian money being thrown at it, and no results 10-20 years in. Not holding my breath.
The thing I can't get my head around with this herd immunity policy and a point Hunt made is why aren't we telling people you can't go and visit Granny every week like usual. Over 60s need to be told a lot more than don't go on an Easter holiday, it should be don't go out if you don't have to.
If they think the risk to under 40s is minimal, sure lets get it through that population, but why are not making it clear the vulnerable need to be out the way for the next 3-4 months, especially if the policy is to get 60% of the population to contract it.
We know from Seattle and Australia, you get this in a care home and you will be raking up the body count.
That's a fair criticism. The elderly and those with underlying conditions should be given stronger advice. Some are undoubtedly going further than the official advice, which will help mitigate things.
My concerns are: (1) the assumption that any attempt to eradicate the virus is doomed to fail and simply postpones misery. (2) the Iceberg assumption on which the current model is built. (3) the possibility of effective anti-virals being found or a vaccine being developed with the result pain deferred is pain saved. (4) The risk that mutation of the virus means that our very hard won herd immunity has limited effectiveness.
None of these means that the government is wrong. I have absolute respect for their dedication and focus on this. But it is frankly foolish not to worry when the price we are being asked to pay is so high.
The Chinese are now bobbling along at roughly 20 new cases a day. They have 13.5k active cases with a very high percentage of critical so there are more deaths to come. But their total infections (recorded) are 81K, less than 0.1% of their population. Does that not make you pause? Our assumption is that somewhere between 60 and 80% will get this. They are less than 0.1%. How is that possible?
It is clear the British don't believe the Chinese figures.
FWIW Having reflected on it overnight I think the government's strategy is the right one long term HOWEVER once our infections/deaths go past several countries the pressure on the government will be to reverse ferret and I'm not sure Boris Johnson has the ability to stay unpopular in his locker.
So we'll get the worst of all worlds on our pandemic response.
Unfortunately I think that might be a reasonable assessment of Boris. I hope for all our sakes we are both wrong.
I have more hope. I think if Boris was going to go populist he would have done it already. He seems to have grown a spine.
If the CMO advice works, traditional, civil service expertise, what relevance does Cummings retain. This is the moment for quiet competence to reassert itself in British public life. I hope we're in good hands.
On herd immunity, surely they must have a strong indication of many, many mild and, as yet, undetected cases, because scaling up to anything like the level to provide herd immunity purely on the basis of detected cases, i.e. something like 50-100x the current detected infection rates of Italy's worst hit communities: I don't need to spell out what that would entail.
There is no reason at all why they should not extend. This is just like Boris and his refusing to extend during the Brexit negotiations. It is pointless grandstanding.
Indeed. Let's see how that stance survives the next couple of months though.
Well the government have made a huge call, they clearly don't think a vaccine is possible in the next few years (if at all) and that this will now be seasonal.
The UK will be either held up as the example of how it should have been done or exactly the opposite and on a political level the Tories will be finished.
what gets me is Boris's insistence that he's using the science.....or is he just lying like he is naturally prone to do because the science I am reading is that you need to reduce social contact as much as possible
The thing is, if we were just talking about Boris and Cummings lying - or even the whole cabinet - then you would be absolutely right.
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
You are very bright so I don't understand why you don't understand this. There are a range of different strategies, the outcomes are extremely uncertain and there are trade-offs to be made.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
I am really struggling to understand why the UK is making this call....
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
I am sceptical of the idea people can't stay in their homes for 3 months. But they have now made it clear today, the policy is herd immunity, they want people to catch it.
This is the call. Get it now, get herd immunity or in their opinion all that happens is you put a lid on it for 2-3 months, then it pops up and by next winter we are in worse position.
That is massive call. You are literally saying we are going to have 10,000s of deaths now, because it is better in the long run. They are clearly convinced that there is no vaccine coming, there is no treatments that will really work and so the only future is that the population is naturally hardened.
Yes with the added element that those who are old or sick need to cocoon themselves away now for 6 months.
I am sceptical of the idea people can't stay in their homes for 3 months. But they have now made it clear today, the policy is herd immunity, they want people to catch it.
This is the call. Get it now, get herd immunity or in their opinion all that happens is you put a lid on it for 2-3 months, then it pops up and by next winter we are in worse position.
That is massive call. You are literally saying we are going to have 10,000s of deaths now, because it is better in the long run. They are clearly convinced that there is no vaccine coming, there is no treatments that will really work and so the only future is that the population is naturally hardened.
I think it's probably also driven by the belief that there are a lot more cases out there, and that the fatality rate will be towards the lower end of the predictions. The CMO has said several times he thinks it will be below 1%.
This is again an absolute massive call. If he is wrong and it is 3%, it goes from we have had a really really bad flu season to we have just killed off massive proportion of the over 60s.
Comments
I despise Farage, and would hesitate to give him airtime over this. But your rhetoric is ridiculous.
It will go down in the history books of either the British made an incredible and brave call that worked out better than all its comparable countries or it killed 10,000s / 100,000s of people unnecessarily.
The satellite TV had nothing worth watching on so I looked through the pile of DVDs to see what I hadn't seen. I found 28 Days Later, which had excellent reviews. Great, I thought, and put it on.
It turns out that 28 Days Later is not a great film to watch on your own in a darkened room with a flickering fire in a dark remote village. I lasted about 30 minutes.
but we are making some kind of spurious assumption that people will tire of social distancing.....
What are they thinking?
There are at least 40 separate vaccine efforts ongoing for Covid.
no one has even mentioned that....
Managed to do the whole Aberdeen to Inverness rail line last Friday (reached only as far Inverurie back in January due to time constraints), but not sure if and when I can do Inverness to Kyle and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. They are the last "proper" weekday rail journeys I need to do the whole National Rail network. Mum is in her seventies, and has urged me not to go on "unnecessary" train journeys, and obviously I won't, but there you go.
I can really feel for TSE, so close to attaining a cherished goal this season, but being thwarted by concerns over the virus!
But I struggle with the concept that the CMO and CSO are also lying. They are the ones who are at the forefront of promoting this scheme and you are asking us to accept that they are purposefully ignoring their medical and scientific beliefs and misleading the country for some ulterior motive.
I do find that harder to believe.
If you have nausea/the runs you are more likely to have something else.
this is not the boy who cried wolf....the wolf is fucking and abouts, rampaging around in full view
The problem at the moment is all this large scale data is only coming from one source, Wuhan in China, where it is highly densely populated, generally poor public health and hygiene. It is far from certain for instance that people complaining of the runs aren't due to something else.
Imagine trying to disconnect causation from correlation in a place like India, where people have all sorts of minor aliments all year round because of the pollution, sanitation, etc.
At the very least there should be a small x against the UK for mass gatherings since Scotalnd is putting a ban in place, and last time I looked Scotland is a major constituent part of the UK.
It is very similar to a judgement on how you manage an economy, are you a Keynesian or a supply-sider?
This is not hard science this is about modelling and judgement of trade-offs with uncertainty.
We've made a big call, we can only all hope it is the correct one.
The call the government have made is that isn't their prediction. They clearly believe this is here to stay for years, there will be no vaccine and therefore the optimal approach is herd immunity.
That is just giant call.
To be clear, WHO let the dogs out.
I think Boris and his team are doing better than okay on strategy, and I buy into the rationale for it. It's gonna be politically difficult if, in the short term, the strategy seems flawed in comparison to those pursuing a different strategy, but again, this is flagged. Boris has the majority and, I hope, the balls to see it through, but also to be flexible when science suggests he should be.
By delaying the closures it does give students a chance to complete their studies and does not send an earthquake through peoples employment
I think so many, if not all of, these sporting and other cancellations for a few weeks will just simply be extended for months. Any idea that across Europe and the World a few weeks closure will be met with an immediate return to normal is for the birdd
This could be the 'furin spike' researchers have noted on the virus, which potentially binds to receptors found on cells in the intestine.
Speculative at this point, but intestinal symptoms have been, as you say, regularly reported.
On the one hand we have the CMO who is worried about exactly this. On the other we have you who says it's not an issue "because obviously"
Who to believe.
Yeah, Cunard have generously offered me a 'Future Cruise Credit' rather than a refund... but they'll have to refund me when they're not actually sailing in May.
(Er, provided Carnival don't go bust of course
40 years. No vaccine. Why should Covid be any easier?
This is in no way trying to be a controversial point. What is the answer?
I think the point that people will get bored of social distancing is absolute bollocks...
I think there are other things in play that the Govt dares not to mention...one is the fragmented social care sector if school are closed and people have to babysit their own kids...I think this could collapse
This is the call. Get it now, get herd immunity or in their opinion all that happens is you put a lid on it for 2-3 months, then it pops up and by next winter we are in worse position.
That is massive call. You are literally saying we are going to have 10,000s of deaths now, because it is better in the long run. They are clearly convinced that there is no vaccine coming, there is no treatments that will really work and so the only future is that the population is naturally hardened.
I imagine that the behavioural scientists have factored in how many will be driven by the survival instinct. When planning, they must also have known how many they need to follow them, to carry on spreading this. They must surely realise that millions, potentially, will go into their own lockdown now. The ones that don’t, who think they are at a low risk, plus those who are willing to risk their lives? Well, they are the ones who have volunteered to try and get that herd immunity. Good luck to them.
It may not work at all, but then that's true of all countries.
I guess every industrial country will build new factories dedicated to making the vaccine.
It looks as though even a year is super-super-optimistic to have this readily and commercially available.
Focusing on a group of nerds with an out of proportion interest in their hobby - might be a bit close to home for some!
There is no reason at all why they should not extend. This is just like Boris and his refusing to extend during the Brexit negotiations. It is pointless grandstanding.
There has been some speculation about immune involvement with Covid 19, but the fact that several groups have potential vaccines they are trying to put into human trials suggests they haven't encountered those kind of hurdles.
I fucking despair of the modern world at times.
But in any event I can fall back on ATOL protection apparently.
https://twitter.com/tomchivers/status/1234426014882836480?s=21
Anyway, let's not publicise this aspect - there's already a shortage of loo-rolls!
If they think the risk to under 40s is minimal, sure lets get it through that population, but why are not making it clear the vulnerable need to be out the way for the next 3-4 months, especially if the policy is to get 60% of the population to contract it.
We know from Seattle and Australia, you get this in a care home and you will be raking up the body count.
My concerns are:
(1) the assumption that any attempt to eradicate the virus is doomed to fail and simply postpones misery.
(2) the Iceberg assumption on which the current model is built.
(3) the possibility of effective anti-virals being found or a vaccine being developed with the result pain deferred is pain saved.
(4) The risk that mutation of the virus means that our very hard won herd immunity has limited effectiveness.
None of these means that the government is wrong. I have absolute respect for their dedication and focus on this. But it is frankly foolish not to worry when the price we are being asked to pay is so high.
The Chinese are now bobbling along at roughly 20 new cases a day. They have 13.5k active cases with a very high percentage of critical so there are more deaths to come. But their total infections (recorded) are 81K, less than 0.1% of their population. Does that not make you pause? Our assumption is that somewhere between 60 and 80% will get this. They are less than 0.1%. How is that possible?
Presumably the PB Herders will be signing up??
But anyway, not the biggest issue of the moment.
But the internet thinks research into SARS and MERS vaccines is ongoing, and MERS you'd expect to have Saudi Arabian money being thrown at it, and no results 10-20 years in. Not holding my breath.
On herd immunity, surely they must have a strong indication of many, many mild and, as yet, undetected cases, because scaling up to anything like the level to provide herd immunity purely on the basis of detected cases, i.e. something like 50-100x the current detected infection rates of Italy's worst hit communities: I don't need to spell out what that would entail.