I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Yet the Dow is still holding onto a slice of the Trump boom. The US is where the selling opportunity is; their market still thinks the rest of the world's problems wont affect them much.
What's the most cost-effective way of selling the Dow? I know about some things but I know very little about trading stocks and shares..
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
This is exactly it. And the long term repercussions of that will be immense. He has, for example, almost certainly put NATO on life support, if he hasn’t killed it completely.
I suspect he will be gone soon, mercifully, and alliances will need to be repaired. The institutional damage to the USA is already enormous, and the values of liberal democracy have been seriously set back.
There are a few on here who should be ashamed of their pandering to a foul, disgraceful and damaging regime. And there will be quite a bit of retroactive distancing.
To be honest most posters on this forum from across the party divide condemn Trump as a danger to mankind, leaving a handful who may try to defend the indefensible
This is very conspicuous to me, independent of political opinions and biasses, almost all of us are think Trump is a bad president. I find it very difficult to understand how regular US Republicans can support him.
Once politics becomes about ensuring the other side loses rather than making sure your own side is doing the right things, it opens up the space for idiots like Trump or idiotic policies like WTO Brexit (for RT et al, soft Brexit very much excluded).
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I'm baffled by what is happening in China.
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
The best time to get it is 12 months after a cure has been developed.
I would add "people's ability and tolerance for following instructions". Which is a key reason why what worked in Japan and South Korea may not work best here.
In addition, there seems to me a strong possibility that the Japanese and Koreans are working on the basis that the rest of the world will manage to eliminate the virus within a few months. If that doesn't hold true, I wonder what their contingency plans are? Ban travel from everywhere with live ongoing cases for as long as necessary, to prevent reinfection?
1st para, definitely true and important. If you have a population that is both community minded and has a huge respect for (and fear of) authority, this is surely an asset in managing the spread of this disease.
The other major asset IMO is having a health care system that is both high quality and has large capacity.
So how do we stack up on these counts? Not great on the first and not that brilliantly, for a developed nation, on the second, I would say.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
Again, I am no fan of Boris, just I don't think that is true. They started making this plan back in January, they have had regular COBRA meeting since then and then when it was ready he signed if off. Since then he has done regular press conferences and deferred to the experts.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I share your suspicions but the WHO, who have been on the ground, don't. Politics? I would like to think not.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
The best time to get it is 12 months after a cure has been developed.
Has he got versions of disinfectant and hand-gel that are effective?
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
The best time to get it is 12 months after a cure has been developed.
Excellent point ! The strategy is different if the cure comes sooner rather than later.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
We have a pandemic document and policy that has been worked on and modified for over 10 years. It says that closing schools and doing other things too early is more harm than good.
4th death in Germany, first in Austria. It looks like Germany's original outbreak was just a lot younger than Italy's, as most people could clearly see.
I don't think it can be just the younger age that explains the massive difference so far in death rates. But it's one of a number of factors. I guess the biggest factor is that it was circulating for a while (weeks, according to some calculations) in the community in northern Italy undetected which has a bunch of effects:
1) Once the general population is infected it's going to include a higher proportion of old people and sick people, than people whose infection can be traced back to travel in China or whatever - so yes a younger group in Germany. 2) Most of the cases in Germany are people who haven't had it long enough to die yet, obviously the death rate in Germany is going to go up. 3) Quite a few cases in Italy of people already very ill with something else catching the virus in hospitals, this doesn't seem to have happened much in Germany. 4) I think it's likely, despite the high number of confirmed cases in Italy, that there's still a bigger proportion of undetected cases in Italy - it's already so widespread and they just can't test everybody.
There are a couple of other factors: 5) In Italy there has been quite a bit of post-mortem testing - people who turned out to have died with the virus and these add to the Italian figures. So far as I know that hasn't been happening in Germany, probably the Italians had more reason to do it, once they realised how widespread it already was, but it's certainly possible that people have died in Germany with the virus that we'll never know about. And even a handful would double the current German death rate. 6) In northern Italy the health service is overwhelmed and people have died because there isn't enough intensive care to go round. This hasn't happened in Germany.
On the plus side for the UK, Britain has avoided the virus spreading undetected without anyone knowing, has more time to prepare, and might be able to take steps to prevent vulnerable people getting infected. On the minus side, I doubt there is generally more spare capacity in the NHS than in the Lombardy public health system.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
There are some interesting stats out there about the average depth and duration of bear markets.
I would add "people's ability and tolerance for following instructions". Which is a key reason why what worked in Japan and South Korea may not work best here.
In addition, there seems to me a strong possibility that the Japanese and Koreans are working on the basis that the rest of the world will manage to eliminate the virus within a few months. If that doesn't hold true, I wonder what their contingency plans are? Ban travel from everywhere with live ongoing cases for as long as necessary, to prevent reinfection?
1st para, definitely true and important. If you have a population that is both community minded and has a huge respect for (and fear of) authority, this is surely an asset in managing the spread of this disease.
The other major asset IMO is having a health care system that is both high quality and has large capacity.
So how do we stack up on these counts? Not great on the first and not that brilliantly, for a developed nation, on the second, I would say.
We need to play to our advantages. If we refilm a series of Love Island but with them wearing Hazmat suits rather than bikinis then I think that might get the attention of those hard to reach groups in our society.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I'm baffled by what is happening in China.
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
My guess would be that there are several orders of magnitude of cases across China, but the system can handle those. It only really became apparent they had an issue in Wuhan when 1000s and 1000s of people all turned up in A&E and overflowed the hospitals.
Also, in addition to the state suppression of information, remember many people are still in lock down or are heavily restricted in what they can do, so very little opportunity for people to get a joined up idea of what is going on.
The party can't allow this not to be a total and utter victory after the massive initial hit they took by trying to cover it up and the whistle-blowing doctor dying and becoming a national hero.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Yet the Dow is still holding onto a slice of the Trump boom. The US is where the selling opportunity is; their market still thinks the rest of the world's problems wont affect them much.
What's the most cost-effective way of selling the Dow? I know about some things but I know very little about trading stocks and shares..
The financial spread betting firms. IG is the biggest I think.
If you want a known downside with big upside you might want to read up on buying a PUT option, although the prices on those are nowhere near as attractive as they were two weeks ago as everyone has realised the volatility is higher.
Care though - approx 75% of retail investors lose money with these firms. I probably use them only once or twice every five years which has worked out ok but obviously makes it impossible to know if its just being lucky like you could be on a handful of visits to a casino.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I'm baffled by what is happening in China.
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
In Wuhan business have closed down until the 20th of March at the earliest. Zero public transportation. No schools, no university.
So when the Med shuts down do we think we have enough food to feed the nation?
I'm glad I stocked up but I'm now concerned I might need to purchase a shotgun. Do Aldi sell them?
If you make like Jumping Jolyon and get a baseball bat your lawful excuse could be that you intended it for foxes, but were not planning at all in advance.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Yet the Dow is still holding onto a slice of the Trump boom. The US is where the selling opportunity is; their market still thinks the rest of the world's problems wont affect them much.
What's the most cost-effective way of selling the Dow? I know about some things but I know very little about trading stocks and shares..
I'm not a trading expert, having stuck to spread betting for years now. I find it easy and convenient; it used to be cheap, but risky, because the margin requirements (the need to deposit funds before you can trade) used to be very low.
However last year there was a big change, intended to protect punters against taking too big a position. Now you need to deposit about £1300 to take a one point position on the Dow (such that if it goes up or down by 100 points you make or lose £100). And really a little more, as a buffer. This significantly restricts the ability to trade, but does make it much safer.
There is a small daily financing charge, which makes holding short term positions more sensible than longer term ones. However this is negligible compared to the sort of market movements we are seeing now.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
The best time to get it is 12 months after a cure has been developed.
Can I wait until the day after my 100th birthday please?
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
Probably within the first dozen or so cases when the entire health service and government is fixated on you and staff burnout is low.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I'm baffled by what is happening in China.
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
Well let's put it this way, Xi wouldn't have gone anywhere near Wuhan if they didn't have things under control now.
It does look like the government is sticking to the script outlined here
The strategy is about managing an epidemic in business as usual rather than an "all it takes" attack.
It doesn't take into account lessons from the SARS epidemic. Strictly neither SARS nor COVID-19 is influenza of course. Nevertheless Asian countries that were hit by SARS have adapted their strategies to a more preventative approach.
The point, I think, is that there are two schools thought on how to tackle COVID-19. They are both scientifically based, so we need to be lead by the science.
My concerns about the UK's approach relate to Italy, in particular:
Is the current Italian situation envisaged in the UK's strategy?
If not, what is the UK doing differently from Italy, and in an effective way, to prevent us becoming a second Italy?
I garbled this. I meant to say, there are two schools of thought about how best to manage the epidemic: manage it within business as usual or all-it-takes prevention. They are both science-based approaches so you can't just say, let's go with the science. You need to understand what each strategy is trying to achieve and make a decision based on what you think is more important. However, the all-it-takes prevention approach is informed by recent SARS epidemics.
Indeed. It's remarkable how otherwise intelligent folk seem unable to grasp this point.
Both those approaches can and will have been simulated with powerful computers.
What is the figure of merit? If it is to reduce deaths in the next 3 weeks, then probably you should shut down absolutely everything now.
However, the figure of merit should be to reduce the total number of deaths over the full course of the epidemic, say a year.
Once you have decided the figure of merit, there is a well-defined answer.
From what has been said, it is clear that the Government are taking a longer-term rather than a shorter-term view. A marathon, not a sprint.
That sounds very naive to me. The figure of merit for a democratically elected government is its popularity come the next election, and popularity isn't based solely on lives saved. Things like individual freedom are also important to many people (see USA). The whole point is that the basis for the figure of merit depends on your political inclination.
FFS, the Government is taking the advice of independent scientific advisors.
They are not Tories, they are probably not even very interested in politics -- and if they are, they are probably mildly left of centre.
They are decent, independent, highly experienced scientists, working for the good of the country, not the Government. They don't have to do this, and they are probably sweating blood to get this right.
And the Government will be taking their advice, because it is too dangerous not to. The scientific advisors would not be sitting quietly by, if their advice was being ignored.
The figure of merit will have no politics in it. It will be about saving most lives.
But, it is probably not about saving most lives in the next 3 weeks.
You're just not getting it, are you? Where in my argument have I given any indication that the scientists are political? Once again, as I and others have pointed out repeatedly: it is the job of the experts is to lay out the options to the best of their ability. It is the job of the politicians to choose from those options. There is no obligation on the politicians to choose whatever option ultimately leads to the least loss of life. If that were true in general, things like smoking would have been banned ages ago.
The analogy with smoking is fatuous.
The scientists know that their reputation is at stake. How do you think Chris Whitty feels with this huge burden to bear? This epidemic will be modelled and remodelled in future, and Whitty knows he must get the response right. Otherwise his name is shit.
If Whitty says this must be done to save the most lives, then Boris will do it. As has been stated by Philip Thomson, the heads of the devolved administrations attend these meetings.
So, you are saying it goes.
Chris Whitty & the Scientists: "This is what you need to do to minimise loss of life, we've done the modelling. "
Boris: "I am ignoring that I have got my Whiff-whaff meter and it tells me that it is best to maximise the GDP. It's really political. I'm the PM & I choose"
Nicola Sturgeon & Mark Drakeford: "Yeah, we go with Boris, and not the Scientists. He's the PM."
Or you might ask them why the eff weren't we advising people with mild RTI symptoms like Nadine to self isolate ?
Because we are not trying to eliminate the virus. The govt plan is to let it spread a bit at this stage. Not a lot but a bit. Counter intuitive but has been explained many times on these threads.
Whether its right or wrong we dont know (and will never know as we wont run the parallel universes with alternative actions). The people best placed to make the call are the scientists with many inter disciplinary experts supporting them. It is a shit job for them and they do it with my support and gratitude.
Sorry but that explanation does not pass the smell test.
Firstly, it is idiotic to risk the running of the government in this way (irrespective of any arguments about the general population). It says rather that the system is very slow to react to developing information about the bug.
Secondly, if the government plan is "to let it spread a bit at this stage", don't you think they might have shared that it of information with us ?
Page 10 3.9• Delay: slow the spread in this country, if it does take hold, lowering the peak impact and pushing it away from the winter season
That's been pandemic advice for a century now. That doesn't mean the plan is to let it spread, the plan is actually saying the exact opposite of that!
The plan is specifically to slow the spread, not trying to stop the spread.
So the proposals everyone is making to try and eliminate any possible spread with travel restrictions, home working etc are not part of the UK govt plan because if they go hard now, then the chance of a second peak in the winter is higher.
No. 🙄
The plan is to stop the spread if possible, if its not possible to stop the spread then the plan is to delay the spread. Neither of that means the plan is to "let it spread a bit".
Its not possible to "eliminate any possible spread" because we aren't an isolationist, authoritarian backwater with no contact with the outside world.
What do you think Whitty means by this:
Pushing the peak of cases "further away from the winter pressures on the NHS" so that there was "more capacity to respond"
What actions can he take to make that happen? Building herd immunity by having a mild outbreak in spring (relatively, it will be horrible for many but better than what would happen otherwise next winter) is right at the top of the list.
I think he means delaying it from February/March and pushing it to the summer months. IE the opposite of "letting it spread".
He is speaking in March so very curious to be talking about February/March.
The epidemic began then so no not really. He's talking about pushing away from this winter which is ending now.
So the CMO's plan in March 2020 is to reduce the consequences for February 2020. Err Ok.
No. The CMO's plan from January 2020 was to reduce the consequences for February, March 2020 etc
We've already been through part of the plan. We're still in the "winter season" at the minute.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I share your suspicions but the WHO, who have been on the ground, don't. Politics? I would like to think not.
As I say, I don't think they are lying that they have massively reduced it, but they could definitely hide a few 1000 new cases across China from WHO people.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
Has it completely escaped your notice that Johnson is copping almost zero flak from any of his political opponents over this, with the dishonourable exception of Rory Stewart? Even Sadiq Khan has stopped whinging about not being included.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I'm baffled by what is happening in China.
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
In Wuhan business have closed down until the 20th of March at the earliest. Zero public transportation. No schools, no university.
In China, my contacts report all universities have been shut for a month.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
In my case there is no optimum time with pre existing diabetes, copd and controlled hypertension. My copd can cause me problems with a normal cold and of course I have the annual flu jab and the one off pneumonia jab but covid 19 could be a very real threat to me and therefore, there is no best time for me
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Perhaps Cummings discovered a forgotten medical paper called “How to deal with a pandemic, by Dr Harald Shipman”.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
Unfortunately, very many people don't have your options. The Tube (Britain's own mobile germ warfare laboratory) was as busy as ever this morning and not everyone, as others have stated, can work from home.
For some people, not working isn't an option because they need that money to pay rent and buy food and not everyone gets sick pay - Mrs Stodge is a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid.
I know this wasn't your intention but I'm afraid your post comes over as a tad smug. Life goes on for many, not because of any arcane option of a "stiff upper lip" or whatever but because they have no choice.
Life goes on for many people as does the fear.
There was nothing smug about it , he only stated he was taking the best precautions he could in the circumstances.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
In my case there is no optimum time with pre existing diabetes, copd and controlled hypertension. My copd can cause me problems with a normal cold and of course I have the annual flu jab and the one off pneumonia jab but covid 19 could be a very real threat to me and therefore, there is no best time for me
Summer is always better than winter, the body is usually slightly stronger. Death rates are always about 25 per cent lower in Summer. The NHS is emptier.
Marginal advantages, I agree. But for some they will make the difference.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
Has it completely escaped your notice that Johnson is copping almost zero flak from any of his political opponents over this, with the dishonourable exception of Rory Stewart? Even Sadiq Khan has stopped whinging about not being included.
Thats one of the most scary things imho. No one wants to play politics with life and death and call it wrong.
My guess would be that there are several orders of magnitude of cases across China, but the system can handle those. It only really became apparent they had an issue in Wuhan when 1000s and 1000s of people all turned up in A&E and overflowed the hospitals.
Also, in addition to the state suppression of information, remember many people are still in lock down or are heavily restricted in what they can do, so very little opportunity for people to get a joined up idea of what is going on.
The party can't allow this not to be a total and utter victory after the massive initial hit they took by trying to cover it up and the whistle-blowing doctor dying and becoming a national hero.
If that was the case it would only work if every small pocket of cases is dealt with swiftly. You might manage to contain small outbreaks a few times, and maybe even many times, but surely at some point you won't contain it and there will be more Wuhan scale outbreaks? At which point we will know that there has been systemic under-reporting.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Yet the Dow is still holding onto a slice of the Trump boom. The US is where the selling opportunity is; their market still thinks the rest of the world's problems wont affect them much.
What's the most cost-effective way of selling the Dow? I know about some things but I know very little about trading stocks and shares..
The financial spread betting firms. IG is the biggest I think.
If you want a known downside with big upside you might want to read up on buying a PUT option, although the prices on those are nowhere near as attractive as they were two weeks ago as everyone has realised the volatility is higher.
Care though - approx 75% of retail investors lose money with these firms. I probably use them only once or twice every five years which has worked out ok but obviously makes it impossible to know if its just being lucky like you could be on a handful of visits to a casino.
Yes, if you approach it as betting it is easy to lose money, as short term movements are essentially random, and the combination of the spread and the financing charge eats away at your capital. The mistake (speaking from experience) is to approach it like betting at a race meeting, looking at all the markets and picking ones you fancy.
It comes into its own when you have a specific reason to trade, and especially when there is a fast moving event like the GFC, 9/11, Brexit, Trump or Corona. I made decent money on all of those, although in the case of Trump lost in the end by dint of holding the positions while markets decided he was actually a good thing.
They can also be useful as a hedge - for example if you own some FTSE shares and don't want to lose any more money, you take out a sell position to balance off the loss if your shares go down. Obviously if shares go up then your betting loss balances off your gain. It's a way to use spread betting to reduce your overall risk.
In between these big events, I have probably lost a little on the spreads, the same as most people do.
18 new cases in China today, over 1,200 recovered. Number of known cases down to 14,814. Almost certainly less than Italy will be later today.
Their figures just aren't believable. A population of over a 1.4bn people and you are trying to convince me just 18 new cases after a virus has run rampant for months.
It is all about the propaganda that the mighty leader, the party, the nation has won the battle.
I share your suspicions but the WHO, who have been on the ground, don't. Politics? I would like to think not.
As I say, I don't think they are lying that they have massively reduced it, but they could definitely hide a few 1000 new cases across China from WHO people.
I have found the figures outside Wuhan almost impossible to believe. With millions moving about from the New Year holidays, many of them from Wuhan and already infected it just seems incredible that the infection rate in these provinces (and their death rates) were so low. But these are the numbers we have.
4th death in Germany, first in Austria. It looks like Germany's original outbreak was just a lot younger than Italy's, as most people could clearly see.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
My guess would be that there are several orders of magnitude of cases across China, but the system can handle those. It only really became apparent they had an issue in Wuhan when 1000s and 1000s of people all turned up in A&E and overflowed the hospitals.
Also, in addition to the state suppression of information, remember many people are still in lock down or are heavily restricted in what they can do, so very little opportunity for people to get a joined up idea of what is going on.
The party can't allow this not to be a total and utter victory after the massive initial hit they took by trying to cover it up and the whistle-blowing doctor dying and becoming a national hero.
If that was the case it would only work if every small pocket of cases is dealt with swiftly. You might manage to contain small outbreaks a few times, and maybe even many times, but surely at some point you won't contain it and there will be more Wuhan scale outbreaks? At which point we will know that there has been systemic under-reporting.
Well that's what they are doing. Everybody has to have this app which tracks if you have come into contact with somebody who contracts it and it automatically assesses your risk and sends you into self isolation (you can't get into your office etc) depending on a number of factors.
I think it is perfectly possible they still have plenty of cases, but are effectively doing contact tracing / isolation by state surveillance.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
Unfortunately, very many people don't have your options. The Tube (Britain's own mobile germ warfare laboratory) was as busy as ever this morning and not everyone, as others have stated, can work from home.
For some people, not working isn't an option because they need that money to pay rent and buy food and not everyone gets sick pay - Mrs Stodge is a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid.
I know this wasn't your intention but I'm afraid your post comes over as a tad smug. Life goes on for many, not because of any arcane option of a "stiff upper lip" or whatever but because they have no choice.
Life goes on for many people as does the fear.
There appears to be a huge third group - people who can quite easily work at home but aren’t because their employers are waiting for a government mandate before allowing it.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
Unfortunately, very many people don't have your options. The Tube (Britain's own mobile germ warfare laboratory) was as busy as ever this morning and not everyone, as others have stated, can work from home.
For some people, not working isn't an option because they need that money to pay rent and buy food and not everyone gets sick pay - Mrs Stodge is a contractor, if she doesn't work she doesn't get paid.
I know this wasn't your intention but I'm afraid your post comes over as a tad smug. Life goes on for many, not because of any arcane option of a "stiff upper lip" or whatever but because they have no choice.
Life goes on for many people as does the fear.
Please believe me I do not want to offend you or anyone for that matter and you make good points.
However there are huge numbers of retired who can self isolate and thousands who can work from home
I have maintained from the beginning that this pandemic is going to be far worse economically and I see no reason to change that
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
Mr. Meeks, whether or not it's possible to have rational reasons for wishing the UK to leave the EU is entirely relevant given your view of the most 'ardent', as you put it, Leavers.
"The damage of Brexit will be far more enduring than Covid-19 because it springs from a baleful malevolence in the hearts of the most avid Leavers that is going to continue to actuate a senselessly hostile approach to the EU for the foreseeable future."
I agree it's very unhelpful that the use of language such as 'treachery' and 'xenophobia' has proliferated. There are entirely reasonable arguments for the UK to retain membership of the EU or to leave it, and noisy fringe elements who consider one to be treason and the other to be racism do more harm than good to their own sides.
Mr. Jonathan, the behaviour of pro-EU types, particularly in the courts and Parliament, has led to the exact opposite of what they wanted. Instead of either remaining, or having a second referendum, or having the very soft May departure, there's a credible chance we now leave with no deal in place whatsoever.
More thinking and less mindless opposition from pro-EU MPs would've served their cause well. I remember Grieve bleating in the Commons that it was 'too late' when the Government backed down and gave him precisely what he wanted, and he voted against them anyway.
This I'm afraid is incorrect. These arguments have been rehearsed a thousand times now and may be historical soon, but the May government excluded soft Brexit from the start. It was only when her government began to shift from talking about hard Brexit to no-deal Brexit that Grieve got involved, and thus parliament.
The mistake they made was not backing CU and SM through the Letwin process and then trying to get this established as the deal, either by forcing May's government to do it or by seizing the agenda.
Nevertheless I'd wager that imposing a trade disruption at year end will be seen, by then, as suicidal. Whether the government has the maturity to realise that now, or waits and tries to suspend it later, remains to be seen
Why on God’s earth would the government create division and strife by doing something like that at this point in time?
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Yet the Dow is still holding onto a slice of the Trump boom. The US is where the selling opportunity is; their market still thinks the rest of the world's problems wont affect them much.
What's the most cost-effective way of selling the Dow? I know about some things but I know very little about trading stocks and shares..
The financial spread betting firms. IG is the biggest I think.
If you want a known downside with big upside you might want to read up on buying a PUT option, although the prices on those are nowhere near as attractive as they were two weeks ago as everyone has realised the volatility is higher.
Care though - approx 75% of retail investors lose money with these firms. I probably use them only once or twice every five years which has worked out ok but obviously makes it impossible to know if its just being lucky like you could be on a handful of visits to a casino.
98% of gamblers lose overall. If you know what you're doing though you can make on this the same as political betting.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
Has it completely escaped your notice that Johnson is copping almost zero flak from any of his political opponents over this, with the dishonourable exception of Rory Stewart? Even Sadiq Khan has stopped whinging about not being included.
Much as I despise Johnson (and believe the govt should be doing more in terms of telling people to practise social distancing and other things), so far (in Coronavirus terms) he has been no worse than the German or Italian prime ministers, a bit better in fact. And although Johnson is very like Trump in some ways, on this the difference with "foreign virus" Trump is pretty clear.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
The best time to get it is 12 months after a cure has been developed.
Can I wait until the day after my 100th birthday please?
That might well be 12 months after a cure has been found!
China shutdown the country. It is perfectly believable they have things under control.
Its not arguing they haven't got it under control, it is the claim they only have 18 new cases. I think it is more believable the new case rate has fallen dramatically, but still higher than basically nothing.
On more mundane matters there are 4 widely spread local by-elections today. Ind defences in Highland and Stratford on Avon, Con defence in Ashford, and LD defence in South Somerset.
I expect thousands, if not millions, of our fellow citizens like my wife and I are self isolating due to our high risk, and others are working from home even before being asked
Furthermore, in our case we will not go to anywhere where people gather in numbers, have for years had our groceries delivered, and regularly hand wash for 20 seconds
These actions are sensible and neither of us are worrying about contracting covid 19 but do accept we could
I wonder ... if you are high risk, there will be an optimum time to get this virus that boosts your chances of survival.
The best time to get it may be in the early Summer. Pretty obviously, the worst time will be in December 2020.
I wonder if all eadric's stockpiling of disinfectant, masks, toilet-rolls and hand-gel means that he will miss the optimum time ...
In my case there is no optimum time with pre existing diabetes, copd and controlled hypertension. My copd can cause me problems with a normal cold and of course I have the annual flu jab and the one off pneumonia jab but covid 19 could be a very real threat to me and therefore, there is no best time for me
Summer is always better than winter, the body is usually slightly stronger. Death rates are always about 25 per cent lower in Summer. The NHS is emptier.
Marginal advantages, I agree. But for some they will make the difference.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
I do not believe that social distancing measures will stop this epidemic. This could slow it down, but only at an enormous social and economic cost which will be unsustainable in the longer term. This virus is highly transmissable and it will always keep coming back when the restrictions have to be eased. It is true that a vaccine could change this equation but it is 12 - 18 months away from being available.
Also, no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates. The common cold is also a coronavirus and there is no effective vaccine against it. The best defense that we have against this virus is the human immune system and herd immunity which will exist after there have been a large number of cases. Countries such as Egypt and Iran (and possibly the United States) will end up in this position as they have a large number of cases.
We have to wait for a few days to see what effect the draconian restrictions being taken in Italy have on the growth of the epidemic there. So far the epidemic in Italy has shown a constant high growth rate that has been totally unaffected by all the measures that have been taken so far.
This epidemic needs to be considered in biological and ecological terms. The human species normally thinks that it is at the top of the food chain and has no natural predators. However the coronavirus COVID 19 has found a way to become a highly successful predator on humans. Humanity is not exempt from the laws of ecology, and as a species we need to coexist with the 8 million other species on the planet Earth. Social distancing of whole countries is a desperate last resort measure of epidemic control, and everything in biology is stacked against it succeeding.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense, if Big Dom was coming in saying right egg-heads shut up and listen, we are going to ignore all of you...it would have leaked to the press in seconds (as every other Big Dom blow up does).
I grant you that there's a massive dose of bone-idle Boris involved.
Has it completely escaped your notice that Johnson is copping almost zero flak from any of his political opponents over this, with the dishonourable exception of Rory Stewart? Even Sadiq Khan has stopped whinging about not being included.
Much as I despise Johnson (and believe the govt should be doing more in terms of telling people to practise social distancing and other things), so far (in Coronavirus terms) he has been no worse than the German or Italian prime ministers, a bit better in fact. And although Johnson is very like Trump in some ways, on this the difference with "foreign virus" Trump is pretty clear.
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
I was mocked by some PBers for posting this last night because apparently the author isn't an expert.
And it shows.
He identifies all the right reasons why the Delay strategy is the only one we have right now.
But he simply assumes that if we don't close everything yesterday, our health services will be "overwhelmed" like in northern Italy. He doesn't consider that the object of Delay isn't just to wait for the cavalry, but to try and reduce the severity of future epidemics through immunity acquired now. And he doesn't consider that it is possible to lock down too early, as well as too late.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
Apropos of nothing, does anyone know the capacity of the courtroom Salmond's being tried in?
Comments
China has ~20% of the world's population and is the initial source of the outbreak, so you would expect things to be going quite badly there, but instead they are reporting new infections at a rate lower than some relatively tiny European countries. On the face of it it does seem too good to be true, but despite the scepticism there doesn't seem to be any official entity that disagrees with their figures. If China is in the process of an expanding epidemic they are doing a hell of a job of hiding it.
The other major asset IMO is having a health care system that is both high quality and has large capacity.
So how do we stack up on these counts? Not great on the first and not that brilliantly, for a developed nation, on the second, I would say.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/51849163
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1238066911545606145?s=20
Joint press conference with Trump will be a hoot....
1) Once the general population is infected it's going to include a higher proportion of old people and sick people, than people whose infection can be traced back to travel in China or whatever - so yes a younger group in Germany.
2) Most of the cases in Germany are people who haven't had it long enough to die yet, obviously the death rate in Germany is going to go up.
3) Quite a few cases in Italy of people already very ill with something else catching the virus in hospitals, this doesn't seem to have happened much in Germany.
4) I think it's likely, despite the high number of confirmed cases in Italy, that there's still a bigger proportion of undetected cases in Italy - it's already so widespread and they just can't test everybody.
There are a couple of other factors:
5) In Italy there has been quite a bit of post-mortem testing - people who turned out to have died with the virus and these add to the Italian figures. So far as I know that hasn't been happening in Germany, probably the Italians had more reason to do it, once they realised how widespread it already was, but it's certainly possible that people have died in Germany with the virus that we'll never know about. And even a handful would double the current German death rate.
6) In northern Italy the health service is overwhelmed and people have died because there isn't enough intensive care to go round. This hasn't happened in Germany.
On the plus side for the UK, Britain has avoided the virus spreading undetected without anyone knowing, has more time to prepare, and might be able to take steps to prevent vulnerable people getting infected.
On the minus side, I doubt there is generally more spare capacity in the NHS than in the Lombardy public health system.
Also, in addition to the state suppression of information, remember many people are still in lock down or are heavily restricted in what they can do, so very little opportunity for people to get a joined up idea of what is going on.
The party can't allow this not to be a total and utter victory after the massive initial hit they took by trying to cover it up and the whistle-blowing doctor dying and becoming a national hero.
If you want a known downside with big upside you might want to read up on buying a PUT option, although the prices on those are nowhere near as attractive as they were two weeks ago as everyone has realised the volatility is higher.
Care though - approx 75% of retail investors lose money with these firms. I probably use them only once or twice every five years which has worked out ok but obviously makes it impossible to know if its just being lucky like you could be on a handful of visits to a casino.
The whole welding people into their homes thing.
However last year there was a big change, intended to protect punters against taking too big a position. Now you need to deposit about £1300 to take a one point position on the Dow (such that if it goes up or down by 100 points you make or lose £100). And really a little more, as a buffer. This significantly restricts the ability to trade, but does make it much safer.
There is a small daily financing charge, which makes holding short term positions more sensible than longer term ones. However this is negligible compared to the sort of market movements we are seeing now.
We've already been through part of the plan. We're still in the "winter season" at the minute.
Not just Wuhan.
You back from skiing OK then?
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
Marginal advantages, I agree. But for some they will make the difference.
For God's sake, if you want to remotely control the coronavirus outbreak, don't tell the Irish there's a WAKE......
Sure, I can delay till next year, but I was primed and ready.
Still confident of the PL finishing?
It comes into its own when you have a specific reason to trade, and especially when there is a fast moving event like the GFC, 9/11, Brexit, Trump or Corona. I made decent money on all of those, although in the case of Trump lost in the end by dint of holding the positions while markets decided he was actually a good thing.
They can also be useful as a hedge - for example if you own some FTSE shares and don't want to lose any more money, you take out a sell position to balance off the loss if your shares go down. Obviously if shares go up then your betting loss balances off your gain. It's a way to use spread betting to reduce your overall risk.
In between these big events, I have probably lost a little on the spreads, the same as most people do.
I think it is perfectly possible they still have plenty of cases, but are effectively doing contact tracing / isolation by state surveillance.
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238072514347184128?s=20
He knows what is going on and his heart wasn't in it.
What a waste of time that was bringing all those fans over from Spain.
That is madness.
However there are huge numbers of retired who can self isolate and thousands who can work from home
I have maintained from the beginning that this pandemic is going to be far worse economically and I see no reason to change that
Money money money
Money is all that matters for the rich. Never mind if it kills people. Let's make money.
Think I'm alone? Lewis Hamilton just said the same thing.
Wonder if a civil action for manslaughter could be filed.
Maybe she`ll have to stay up there?
He, he.
My brother is a Man City fan, and is very keen on the suspension of the PL, oddly.
Bare minimum, all sports / events off, oldies locked away, everybody who can work from home.
(Except the Pope).
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/12/australian-gp-under-threat-as-mclaren-pull-out-after-positive-coronavirus-test
China shutdown the country. It is perfectly believable they have things under control.
Well that's one thing nobody will notice isn't on.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1238074378723753986
Be a shame not to see how many points Liverpool could have got if it weren't for the virus. Should have been easily able to smash past 100 points.
Also, no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates. The common cold is also a coronavirus and there is no effective vaccine against it. The best defense that we have against this virus is the human immune system and herd immunity which will exist after there have been a large number of cases. Countries such as Egypt and Iran (and possibly the United States) will end up in this position as they have a large number of cases.
We have to wait for a few days to see what effect the draconian restrictions being taken in Italy have on the growth of the epidemic there. So far the epidemic in Italy has shown a constant high growth rate that has been totally unaffected by all the measures that have been taken so far.
This epidemic needs to be considered in biological and ecological terms. The human species normally thinks that it is at the top of the food chain and has no natural predators. However the coronavirus COVID 19 has found a way to become a highly successful predator on humans. Humanity is not exempt from the laws of ecology, and as a species we need to coexist with the 8 million other species on the planet Earth. Social distancing of whole countries is a desperate last resort measure of epidemic control, and everything in biology is stacked against it succeeding.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1237873160990547968
Hey, about a tip for today that is actually running?
He identifies all the right reasons why the Delay strategy is the only one we have right now.
But he simply assumes that if we don't close everything yesterday, our health services will be "overwhelmed" like in northern Italy. He doesn't consider that the object of Delay isn't just to wait for the cavalry, but to try and reduce the severity of future epidemics through immunity acquired now. And he doesn't consider that it is possible to lock down too early, as well as too late.