Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
Not spooky at all - I've got all sorts of stuff through security that I'd forgotten I had in my hand luggage. I've always thought that security is to reassure passengers.
The default assumption in our planning for Covid-19 is that between 40 and 70% of the population are going to get it eventually. The object of our response is therefore not to eliminate but to flatten the curve of infection reducing the pressure on our medical capacity. If the default assumption is correct this is sensible and it also makes sense to introduce measures gradually with a view to achieving that objective with the minimum economic cost. This is the current government strategy and it seems to be based on models produced some years ago which contain this assumption.
What I think we need to do is measure those assumptions against the real world examples that we have. China currently has 14,800 active cases. On current trends it will eliminate the virus within the month. The infection rate in China, because of the steps they have taken, is currently 0.56% of the population. By the end of this phase it may reach 0.6%. Not 40%, not 70% but 0.6%.
If our default assumptions are correct all they are achieving at considerable cost is more deferral. There will be a second, third, fourth wave of infections until that 40-70% level of infection is achieved and there are insufficient hosts for further spread. But what if they are wrong? What if it is possible to actually eliminate this virus from the herd? If that proves to be the case tens of thousands of Britons and possibly hundreds of thousands of Europeans will have died needlessly.
This is a big call and it is entirely right to listen to the experts in making it. Will China really be able to prevent further outbreaks in our interconnected world? Would we? I am not sure but I want assurance that the government is thinking about the alternative strategies very carefully.
Agreed. And, also, why are some companies that can implement home-working waiting for the government to tell them to do so?
Look at Charles on here. He can but seemingly won't unless compelled by government directive.
Senseless.
I can’t do that unilaterally.
We are part of a global listed company and have to take into account all sorts of factors. (How do you think I was able to flag the border closure a week ago?)
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
On a serious note, I hope you anti-bac'ed all your cases etc.
Also, no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates. The common cold is also a coronavirus and there is no effective vaccine against it.
Woah, stop right there!
The common cold is a rhinovirus not a coronavirus.
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
Over the non qualified, yes
Even if they themselves say "we got it wrong"?
Yes. Being able to recognise you got it wrong is a great attribute for getting it right in the future.
Though you're wrong to call any mooted future closures a "u-turn". The CMO and CSO have been saying that future closures are likely coming, just not yet and they want to time the closures at the right time. If the time comes where they say "now we're doing this" then that's not a u-turn, it is following through on their existing plan.
I do not believe that social distancing measures will stop this epidemic. This could slow it down, but only at an enormous social and economic cost which will be unsustainable in the longer term. This virus is highly transmissable and it will always keep coming back when the restrictions have to be eased. It is true that a vaccine could change this equation but it is 12 - 18 months away from being available.
Also, no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates. The common cold is also a coronavirus and there is no effective vaccine against it. The best defense that we have against this virus is the human immune system and herd immunity which will exist after there have been a large number of cases. Countries such as Egypt and Iran (and possibly the United States) will end up in this position as they have a large number of cases.
We have to wait for a few days to see what effect the draconian restrictions being taken in Italy have on the growth of the epidemic there. So far the epidemic in Italy has shown a constant high growth rate that has been totally unaffected by all the measures that have been taken so far.
This epidemic needs to be considered in biological and ecological terms. The human species normally thinks that it is at the top of the food chain and has no natural predators. However the coronavirus COVID 19 has found a way to become a highly successful predator on humans. Humanity is not exempt from the laws of ecology, and as a species we need to coexist with the 8 million other species on the planet Earth. Social distancing of whole countries is a desperate last resort measure of epidemic control, and everything in biology is stacked against it succeeding.
"no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates" " The best defense that we have against this virus is the human immune system and herd immunity" Do you see any contradiction there? If it mutates the immune system will not be effective in fighting it. If the immune system is partially effective then a vaccine could also help.
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
On a serious note, I hope you anti-bac'ed all your cases etc.
The Israelis haven't been checking fluids for years now. You may not have noticed if you weren't accustomed to it; since everyone else does.
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
Not spooky at all - I've got all sorts of stuff through security that I'd forgotten I had in my hand luggage. I've always thought that security is to reassure passengers.
They managed to find a jar of chutney using the "xray-machine" which was well hidden in my bag. Apparently chutney counts as a liquid!
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I`ve dipped my ties in the market today.
You back from skiing OK then?
Got back yesterday at 2:45am on a rescue flight. Now in self isolation. Not shaving so will look like a hermit in 14 days time. I'll feel like one too!
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
Not spooky at all - I've got all sorts of stuff through security that I'd forgotten I had in my hand luggage. I've always thought that security is to reassure passengers.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
There is a long long way still to fall until we reach the bottom.
I estimate over the next 6 to 9 months anything between 25% and 75% will be wiped off existing values.
The markets will not return to their New Year peaks for at least 5 years. Possibly 10 years.
I think the bottom is about 10% away, but admittedly that didnt factor in Trump coming after the EU. Buying 10% off the bottom is generally fine and better than waiting to find the exact low and find you miss out.
If you are right imagine that would make it the worst crash since 1929 which is possible but think unlikely.
I think the bottom will be about 4500, so plan to start buying probably next week. I expect that there will be big falls until monday. Weekends are always nervous times for investors when things are volatile.
I expect most stocks to bounce back fairly quickly as it clears, but a bad year for travel and retail may linger.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I`ve dipped my ties in the market today.
You back from skiing OK then?
Got back yesterday at 2:45am on a rescue flight. Now in self isolation. Not shaving so will look like a hermit in 14 days time. I'll feel like one too!
I was mocked by some PBers for posting this last night because apparently the author isn't an expert.
And it shows.
He identifies all the right reasons why the Delay strategy is the only one we have right now.
But he simply assumes that if we don't close everything yesterday, our health services will be "overwhelmed" like in northern Italy. He doesn't consider that the object of Delay isn't just to wait for the cavalry, but to try and reduce the severity of future epidemics through immunity acquired now. And he doesn't consider that it is possible to lock down too early, as well as too late.
He also doesn't consider that a badly timed shutdown can in fact make the shutdown less effective at the time its needed most (because by then people are frustrated with the restrictions and no longer maintaining them).
Also, no effective vaccine may ever be developed as this is a coronavirus which constantly mutates. The common cold is also a coronavirus and there is no effective vaccine against it.
Woah, stop right there!
The common cold is a rhinovirus not a coronavirus.
The common cold is a viral infection of the upper respiratory tract. The most commonly implicated virus is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes.[29][30] Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronavirus (≈ 15%),[31][32] influenza viruses (10–15%),[33] adenoviruses (5%),[33] human respiratory syncytial virus (orthopneumovirus), enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and human metapneumovirus.[34] Frequently more than one virus is present.[35] In total over 200 viral types are associated with colds.[3]
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Want to know something really spooky? I just unpacked the hand luggage I had from my trip to Israel. Found a big bottle of mineral water in it that was not picked up by Israeli baggage checks.
Not spooky at all - I've got all sorts of stuff through security that I'd forgotten I had in my hand luggage. I've always thought that security is to reassure passengers.
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
LOL. JRM has said that medical advice is that MPs are perfectly safe crowding together in the lobbies to vote on parliamentary business. But just to be on the safe side, they are opening a window in each lobby.
I'm beginning to think the world's most irresponsible Government is that of the UK.
Iran runs it close but now even the US is starting to get its act together.
This has Dominic Cummings' hand all over it. A fuck-it policy of anarchy: we can't stop it so let it spread. Instead of 'Let them eat cake' it's 'Let them die.'
Sorry but there's no other way to dress this up.
Nonsense. Utter nonsense.
This is being driven by the medical experts, not Boris or Cummings, and I trust them long before your musings
If it turns out that the rest of Cheltenham is cancelled in a U turn, will you continue to believe in the competence and infallibility of these experts?
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
If this really is the approach, I won't be coming out my home for the next few months.
LOL. JRM has said that medical advice is that MPs are perfectly safe crowding together in the lobbies to vote on parliamentary business. But just to be on the safe side, they are opening a window in each lobby.
Mr. Meeks, whether or not it's possible to have rational reasons for wishing the UK to leave the EU is entirely relevant given your view of the most 'ardent', as you put it, Leavers.
"The damage of Brexit will be far more enduring than Covid-19 because it springs from a baleful malevolence in the hearts of the most avid Leavers that is going to continue to actuate a senselessly hostile approach to the EU for the foreseeable future."
I agree it's very unhelpful that the use of language such as 'treachery' and 'xenophobia' has proliferated. There are entirely reasonable arguments for the UK to retain membership of the EU or to leave it, and noisy fringe elements who consider one to be treason and the other to be racism do more harm than good to their own sides.
Mr. Jonathan, the behaviour of pro-EU types, particularly in the courts and Parliament, has led to the exact opposite of what they wanted. Instead of either remaining, or having a second referendum, or having the very soft May departure, there's a credible chance we now leave with no deal in place whatsoever.
More thinking and less mindless opposition from pro-EU MPs would've served their cause well. I remember Grieve bleating in the Commons that it was 'too late' when the Government backed down and gave him precisely what he wanted, and he voted against them anyway.
This I'm afraid is incorrect. These arguments have been rehearsed a thousand times now and may be historical soon, but the May government excluded soft Brexit from the start. It was only when her government began to shift from talking about hard Brexit to no-deal Brexit that Grieve got involved, and thus parliament.
The mistake they made was not backing CU and SM through the Letwin process and then trying to get this established as the deal, either by forcing May's government to do it or by seizing the agenda.
Nevertheless I'd wager that imposing a trade disruption at year end will be seen, by then, as suicidal. Whether the government has the maturity to realise that now, or waits and tries to suspend it later, remains to be seen
Why on God’s earth would the government create division and strife by doing something like that at this point in time?
Why indeed, but are you confident they (Cummings & Boris) won't?
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
If this really is the approach, I won't be coming out my home for the next few months.
That response will have been modelled in - they are probably expecting a fair % of the population to self isolate. They may even need to bring in measures like Italy to avoid the spring/summer peak being too high, but they are explicitly not trying to stop the virus once it got into the delay phase and that was clear from the press conference this week with the PM and CMO.
Isn't it also borderline racist, going with the Asian doctor stereotype?
I thought that when I first saw it. If he hadn’t just promised untold funds to the NHS stop a disease, maybe. But it is in keeping with the budgets headline content
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I`ve dipped my ties in the market today.
You back from skiing OK then?
Got back yesterday at 2:45am on a rescue flight. Now in self isolation. Not shaving so will look like a hermit in 14 days time. I'll feel like one too!
LOL. JRM has said that medical advice is that MPs are perfectly safe crowding together in the lobbies to vote on parliamentary business. But just to be on the safe side, they are opening a window in each lobby.
We should export him to the USA, do we still need an ambassador there? He would fit in delightfully with the Republican elite.
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Why am I not filled with confidence?
I come back to Italy:
Is the current situation in Italy an envisaged outcome for the government's strategy?
If not, what is the UK government doing, which is effective at preventing such an outcome, that their Italian counterparts didn't do?
I was right, Wall Street is closing when it's closed, in a sense, in that the limit-down shutdown on trading is being applied to the futures market (and hence my spread bets) even thought the market isn't yet open. Ha!
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Why am I not filled with confidence?
I come back to Italy:
Is the current situation in Italy an envisaged outcome for the government's strategy?
If not, what is the UK government doing, which is effective at preventing such an outcome, that their Italian counterparts didn't do?
Currently we're doing much better contact tracing, quarantines and isolation than the Italians ever did, which is why its growing much slower than in Italy.
That's why I think the notion pushed by some that this is part of a "let it grow" strategy is nonsense.
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
So Dundee FC still get a home crowd but United don't? Hardly seems fair.
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
Exactly what I was trying to explain to Philip and Nigel earlier whilst being called nonsensical.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
Why am I not filled with confidence?
I come back to Italy:
Is the current situation in Italy an envisaged outcome for the government's strategy?
If not, what is the UK government doing, which is effective at preventing such an outcome, that their Italian counterparts didn't do?
I dont have the answers but at a guess:
1. Its very possible, maybe probable that we encounter worse than Italy currently has at the UK peak. This probability will likely apply to all of Europe and most of the northern Hemisphere.
2. They are not trying to prevent "current Italy" but something far worse, and will accept current Italy for a lower risk of the potentially much worse scenario.
1. All analysis & modelling of data by a serious scientist will involve allowance for the significant uncertainties, which can of course be incorporated into any inferences made from the data. This is standard.
2. Even if the input weights may have a political dimension, you still need to show that the optimised solution depends sensitively on the weights.
We're probably on the same page. Science is king and should be leading this.
But what I rather doubt is the notion that science is everything here and thus there will be one clear and obvious best response free of politics and political judgment.
1. Its very possible, maybe probable that we encounter worse than Italy currently has at the UK peak. This probability will likely apply to all of Europe and most of the northern Hemisphere.
2. They are not trying to prevent "current Italy" but something far worse, and will accept current Italy for a lower risk of the potentially much worse scenario.
Yeah, it could end up worse than Italy due to mismanagement. I really want to know if it's part of their plan.
As well as the ban excluding the UK and Irish Republic, it apparently doesn't include US citizens either.
Or their close family members. Which hopefully includes husbands
I believe a country is generally not allowed to stop its own citizens returning. Universal Declaration of Human Rights - I think even the rogue state US is part of that one?
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
There is a long long way still to fall until we reach the bottom.
I estimate over the next 6 to 9 months anything between 25% and 75% will be wiped off existing values.
The markets will not return to their New Year peaks for at least 5 years. Possibly 10 years.
I think the bottom is about 10% away, but admittedly that didnt factor in Trump coming after the EU. Buying 10% off the bottom is generally fine and better than waiting to find the exact low and find you miss out.
If you are right imagine that would make it the worst crash since 1929 which is possible but think unlikely.
I think the bottom will be about 4500, so plan to start buying probably next week. I expect that there will be big falls until monday. Weekends are always nervous times for investors when things are volatile.
I expect most stocks to bounce back fairly quickly as it clears, but a bad year for travel and retail may linger.
How long do you think it will take to clear? And, with a professional hat on, how much work is going on inside the NHS to get us set up to deal with this?
Peak late April to early May, fading heavily by June, isolated spikes in various places in the recovery phase.
Both the original SARS and MERS viruses did not become major ongoing issues, and the evidence from the Far East is that recovery is underway already.
As a Frontovik, I am not always informed about what the General Staff are up to. My contacts are in Public Health forecasting rather than strategic planning. I have seen preparations gradually building, but am concerned at the low stocks of protective equipment. I would be greatly reassured if we had major stocks of these in warehouses. Without equipment we are playing Russian Roulette.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I`ve dipped my ties in the market today.
You back from skiing OK then?
Got back yesterday at 2:45am on a rescue flight. Now in self isolation. Not shaving so will look like a hermit in 14 days time. I'll feel like one too!
Why did you need a rescue flight from Innsbruck?
The Austrians blocked the border. Couldn't get out of Italy by road. Flew out of Verona to Stansted. Inghams did a superb job getting us out.
PS My two days of skiing were magnificent. Great snow, sunshine, no queues or indeed no people. Did the Sella Ronda in record time. Gotta tan.
1. All analysis & modelling of data by a serious scientist will involve allowance for the significant uncertainties, which can of course be incorporated into any inferences made from the data. This is standard.
2. Even if the input weights may have a political dimension, you still need to show that the optimised solution depends sensitively on the weights.
We're probably on the same page. Science is king and should be leading this.
But what I rather doubt is the notion that science is everything here and thus there will be one clear and obvious best response free of politics and political judgment.
There definitely isnt one clear and obvious best response at all. Its ridiculously complex and dealing with many known and unknown unknowns to paraphrase Rumsfeld. The point being made is that no-one outside of the govt team has the resources to come up with an answer that is "likely" to be better than the govts.
That is very different to saying that the govt answer is the only scientific one or guaranteed to be best. Indeed its almost certain that an outside expert will have a better course of action somewhere (as outside experts might have hundreds of thousands of different strategies to the govts one chosen strategy).
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
So Dundee FC still get a home crowd but United don't? Hardly seems fair.
You could always persuade 375 Dundee United fans to turn up bringing the crowd over the 500 limit, and so getting the match cancelled. You might even infect a few Dundee fans as a bonus.
We've organised a family get-together at a big house in the middle of May. An English gathering of the clans. They will all come.
Well, the survivors will anyway.
It won't be over by then. The government's model is 95% of those that will contract it will do so over a 3 month period, which they have estimated will start about a month after the first sustained community transmission i.e. this week.
Get ready for 6 months of this.
Sorry, just to clarify - do you mean we're at the beginning of that 3-month period right now?
My understanding is they said a month from community transmission before we then hit the ~9 week period* then a 1 month "cool-down". We are probably 1 week, maybe 2 through the first month.
* And within this 9 weeks, in the middle 3 weeks will be when 95% of those are to get will contract it.
But I would go pessimistic and say lets 12 weeks in the middle (or longer cool down), when we are talking at least 5 months.
So essentially:
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
So Dundee FC still get a home crowd but United don't? Hardly seems fair.
You could always persuade 375 Dundee United fans to turn up bringing the crowd over the 500 limit, and so getting the match cancelled. You might even infect a few Dundee fans as a bonus.
Dundee fans are always infected. What with varies over time.
I idly note that the BP share price is back to 1996 levels. That bursar chap may be wishing he had responded differently.
FTSE 100 back to 1998 levels. 22 years FFS.
Not with dividends reinvested.
Average yield of FTSE 100 is now 4.8%.
Indeed. Im tempted to buy today, but still trying to process the increased chances of US-EU trade war and its impact on the longer term market following Trumps presser.
I think the yield will top 5%, maybe significantly more, in the next few weeks. I agree there is a buying opportunity coming up. But I'm in no hurry to re-enter the market. There is a potent mixture of panic and real economic damage. Many more sellers yet to be shaken out.
I`ve dipped my ties in the market today.
You back from skiing OK then?
Got back yesterday at 2:45am on a rescue flight. Now in self isolation. Not shaving so will look like a hermit in 14 days time. I'll feel like one too!
Why did you need a rescue flight from Innsbruck?
He tried to ski for the border but the carabinieri were the better skiers?
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
Currently we're doing much better contact tracing, quarantines and isolation than the Italians ever did, which is why its growing much slower than in Italy.
Is it growing slower, or are we just a week or so behind? I'm sure the comparison graphs suggested a similar growth.
And while we may be doing some things well, the fact that last night we had 3000 people from Madrid - one of the biggest Covid hotspots in Europe - wandering around Liverpool, suggests we're not exactly being overly risk averse.
Quick question - as a non-cook I eat out a lot, and am getting increasingly aware that public wifi in restaurants etc is insecure.
Which VPN would you recommend for me and family?
I don't know if it's any good, but HideMyAss is popular on our corporate network.
You can also get HideMyAssPro...
Don't use HideMyAss !!! It doesn't Hide your Ass....
PrivateInternetAccess has had a very good reputation for many many years, although there is concern that an Israeli company recently purchased them*. I have used them for ~10 years and never had any outage, always good speeds, and the software is now very solid on all platforms.
* The concern is that because Israel likes to provide the US intell, obviously it could be that Uncle Sam gets a look at what your doing or access to do so.
China shutdown the country. It is perfectly believable they have things under control.
Its not arguing they haven't got it under control, it is the claim they only have 18 new cases. I think it is more believable the new case rate has fallen dramatically, but still higher than basically nothing.
It would be really good to see an update of that image for March. Have they really gone back to work?
China shutdown the country. It is perfectly believable they have things under control.
Its not arguing they haven't got it under control, it is the claim they only have 18 new cases. I think it is more believable the new case rate has fallen dramatically, but still higher than basically nothing.
It would be really good to see an update of that image for March. Have they really gone back to work?
Wuhan is still locked down for another week and a half, no businesses, transport, schools.
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
Apropos of nothing, does anyone know the capacity of the courtroom Salmond's being tried in?
will not be 500 and most of time so far public have been excluded so not an issue for certain. So far it has been like Carry on Camping, not much to be seen or heard.
"Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks."
"... doctors in China detected the virus’s RNA in respiratory samples from survivors for a median of 20 days after they became infected"
"By comparison, only a third of patients with SARS still harbored the virus in their respiratory tract after as long as four weeks, the Chinese scientists said."
A third of SARS last 28 days, half of Covid-19 last 20 days and one or two cases of COVID-19 case lasted 37 days. Seems totally consistent to me.
We've organised a family get-together at a big house in the middle of May. An English gathering of the clans. They will all come.
Well, the survivors will anyway.
It won't be over by then. The government's model is 95% of those that will contract it will do so over a 3 month period, which they have estimated will start about a month after the first sustained community transmission i.e. this week.
Get ready for 6 months of this.
Sorry, just to clarify - do you mean we're at the beginning of that 3-month period right now?
My understanding is they said a month from community transmission before we then hit the ~9 week period* then a 1 month "cool-down". We are probably 1 week, maybe 2 through the first month.
* And within this 9 weeks, in the middle 3 weeks will be when 95% of those are to get will contract it.
But I would go pessimistic and say lets 12 weeks in the middle (or longer cool down), when we are talking at least 5 months.
So essentially:
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Does that sound about right?
I am no expert (just repeating what the CMO said the model was), but it seems Dr Foxy is saying something along these lines.
Currently we're doing much better contact tracing, quarantines and isolation than the Italians ever did, which is why its growing much slower than in Italy.
Is it growing slower, or are we just a week or so behind? I'm sure the comparison graphs suggested a similar growth.
And while we may be doing some things well, the fact that last night we had 3000 people from Madrid - one of the biggest Covid hotspots in Europe - wandering around Liverpool, suggests we're not exactly being overly risk averse.
Its growing slower here. Some people have tried to overlay a cherrypicked few days of graphs to show similar growth but then a few days later those are out of date and it shows divergence. Any long period graph now shows us clearly diverging with Italy.
How many Spaniards do you think are currently in the UK? Do you think they're all in Liverpool?
We've organised a family get-together at a big house in the middle of May. An English gathering of the clans. They will all come.
Well, the survivors will anyway.
It won't be over by then. The government's model is 95% of those that will contract it will do so over a 3 month period, which they have estimated will start about a month after the first sustained community transmission i.e. this week.
Get ready for 6 months of this.
Sorry, just to clarify - do you mean we're at the beginning of that 3-month period right now?
My understanding is they said a month from community transmission before we then hit the ~9 week period* then a 1 month "cool-down". We are probably 1 week, maybe 2 through the first month.
* And within this 9 weeks, in the middle 3 weeks will be when 95% of those are to get will contract it.
But I would go pessimistic and say lets 12 weeks in the middle (or longer cool down), when we are talking at least 5 months.
So essentially:
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Does that sound about right?
I am no expert (just repeating what the CMO said the model was), but it seems Dr Foxy is saying something along these lines.
If either of these models play out this could prove to be the biggest stock market buying opportunity in my lifetime.
"Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks."
"... doctors in China detected the virus’s RNA in respiratory samples from survivors for a median of 20 days after they became infected"
"By comparison, only a third of patients with SARS still harbored the virus in their respiratory tract after as long as four weeks, the Chinese scientists said."
A third of SARS last 28 days, half of Covid-19 last 20 days and one or two cases of COVID-19 case lasted 37 days. Seems totally consistent to me.
There may be a difference between having detectable virus in your respiratory tract and actually shedding it. Or there may not. Useful to know. Would have a big impact on quarantine.
If you want to build herd imunity, why would you close schools or Universities?
School children and Uni students (along with most of the parents of these) are below the critical age for complications and are the ideal base for herd imunity, as they inhabit one of the prime incubation arenas of future waves of the disease, where herd imunity is obviously required to prevent future epidemics.
The Italians let it explode and had a pandemic accident.
We want to diffuse the bomb. We want a pandemic by design. We think we can do that.
It's brave Minister.
I imagine this is going to be a very challenging few weeks for our government and its experts.
Everyone will be screaming for them to start doing something but they are like the commanding officers in Zulu, hold steady boys. Wait wait wait, FIRE!
We've organised a family get-together at a big house in the middle of May. An English gathering of the clans. They will all come.
Well, the survivors will anyway.
It won't be over by then. The government's model is 95% of those that will contract it will do so over a 3 month period, which they have estimated will start about a month after the first sustained community transmission i.e. this week.
Get ready for 6 months of this.
Sorry, just to clarify - do you mean we're at the beginning of that 3-month period right now?
My understanding is they said a month from community transmission before we then hit the ~9 week period* then a 1 month "cool-down". We are probably 1 week, maybe 2 through the first month.
* And within this 9 weeks, in the middle 3 weeks will be when 95% of those are to get will contract it.
But I would go pessimistic and say lets 12 weeks in the middle (or longer cool down), when we are talking at least 5 months.
So essentially:
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Does that sound about right?
I am no expert (just repeating what the CMO said the model was), but it seems Dr Foxy is saying something along these lines.
If either of these models play out this could prove to be the biggest stock market buying opportunity in my lifetime.
Isn’t the catch that after one contained epidemic, there won’t be enough community immunity to prevent another, and that we will have to rinse and repeat several times before we get to the point where herd immunity contains future outbreaks?
Quick question - as a non-cook I eat out a lot, and am getting increasingly aware that public wifi in restaurants etc is insecure.
Which VPN would you recommend for me and family?
I don't know if it's any good, but HideMyAss is popular on our corporate network.
You can also get HideMyAssPro...
Don't use HideMyAss !!! It doesn't Hide your Ass....
PrivateInternetAccess has had a very good reputation for many many years, although there is concern that an Israeli company recently purchased them*. I have used them for ~10 years and never had any outage, always good speeds, and the software is now very solid on all platforms.
* The concern is that because Israel likes to provide the US intell, obviously it could be that Uncle Sam gets a look at what your doing or access to do so.
Is this for mobiles? If I dont do banking etc on public wifi, and dont have bluetooth on do I really need anything beyond normal Apple protection?
We've organised a family get-together at a big house in the middle of May. An English gathering of the clans. They will all come.
Well, the survivors will anyway.
It
Get ready for 6 months of this.
Sorry, just to clarify - do you mean we're at the beginning of that 3-month period right now?
* And within this 9 weeks, in the middle 3 weeks will be when 95% of those are to get will contract it.
But I would go pessimistic and say lets 12 weeks in the middle (or longer cool down), when we are talking at least 5 months.
So essentially:
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission. April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur. July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Does that sound about right?
I am no expert (just repeating what the CMO said the model was), but it seems Dr Foxy is saying something along these lines.
If either of these models play out this could prove to be the biggest stock market buying opportunity in my lifetime.
Isn’t the catch that after one contained epidemic, there won’t be enough community immunity to prevent another, and that we will have to rinse and repeat several times before we get to the point where herd immunity contains future outbreaks?
Quick question - as a non-cook I eat out a lot, and am getting increasingly aware that public wifi in restaurants etc is insecure.
Which VPN would you recommend for me and family?
I don't know if it's any good, but HideMyAss is popular on our corporate network.
You can also get HideMyAssPro...
Don't use HideMyAss !!! It doesn't Hide your Ass....
PrivateInternetAccess has had a very good reputation for many many years, although there is concern that an Israeli company recently purchased them*. I have used them for ~10 years and never had any outage, always good speeds, and the software is now very solid on all platforms.
* The concern is that because Israel likes to provide the US intell, obviously it could be that Uncle Sam gets a look at what your doing or access to do so.
Is this for mobiles? If I dont do banking etc on public wifi, and dont have bluetooth on do I really need anything beyond normal Apple protection?
Private Internet Acesss (and most major VPNs) have PC / IoS / Android apps. These days it is just a good idea in general to use a VPN at the very least when out in public for a whole variety of reasons, both security and privacy.
Currently we're doing much better contact tracing, quarantines and isolation than the Italians ever did, which is why its growing much slower than in Italy.
Is it growing slower, or are we just a week or so behind? I'm sure the comparison graphs suggested a similar growth.
And while we may be doing some things well, the fact that last night we had 3000 people from Madrid - one of the biggest Covid hotspots in Europe - wandering around Liverpool, suggests we're not exactly being overly risk averse.
My back of an excel spreadsheet calculation suggests that the growth in UK cases this week has been a bit slower compared to when Italy was at the same stage but not by much. The UK on Sunday was "12 days behind Italy" and now you are "14 days behind Italy". I would not find this especially reassuring.
FM: "The Health Secretary and I have decided this morning that we are minded that we will advise the cancellation, from the start of next week, of mass gatherings of 500 people or more." #FMQs
Apropos of nothing, does anyone know the capacity of the courtroom Salmond's being tried in?
will not be 500 and most of time so far public have been excluded so not an issue for certain. So far it has been like Carry on Camping, not much to be seen or heard.
The Italians let it explode and had a pandemic accident.
We want to diffuse the bomb. We want a pandemic by design. We think we can do that.
It's brave Minister.
I imagine this is going to be a very challenging few weeks for our government and its experts.
Everyone will be screaming for them to start doing something but they are like the commanding officers in Zulu, hold steady boys. Wait wait wait, FIRE!
If the numbers today show a big leap there is going to be even more pressure. We are surely starting to reach daily increases were the wider public start to think that sounds like quite a lot.
Comments
We are part of a global listed company and have to take into account all sorts of factors. (How do you think I was able to flag the border closure a week ago?)
That, for a journalist, seems pretty inadvisable to me.
The common cold is a rhinovirus not a coronavirus.
Boris Johnson says he WON'T ban mass gatherings or close schools in fight against coronavirus as health experts say government plan is to LET the disease spread slowly through UK so country gets 'herd immunity'
No10 has also dismissed suggestions they will emulate Ireland, which announced this morning that it will close all schools and colleges, although the step is being kept in the locker in case the situation escalates.
The signs are that they will instead ask those with a cold to self-quarantine, and urge vulnerable elderly people to stay indoors.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8103651/Pressure-mounts-Boris-Johnson-ramp-Britains-coronavirus-action.html
Though you're wrong to call any mooted future closures a "u-turn". The CMO and CSO have been saying that future closures are likely coming, just not yet and they want to time the closures at the right time. If the time comes where they say "now we're doing this" then that's not a u-turn, it is following through on their existing plan.
" The best defense that we have against this virus is the human immune system and herd immunity"
Do you see any contradiction there? If it mutates the immune system will not be effective in fighting it. If the immune system is partially effective then a vaccine could also help.
I expect most stocks to bounce back fairly quickly as it clears, but a bad year for travel and retail may linger.
"Dr David Halpern, head of the UK's Behavioural Insights Team dubbed Britain's 'Nudge Unit' who reports directly to Mr Johnson, has suggested the 500,000 people in UK care homes or with respiratory conditions could be the only people protected.
He has suggested the virus can be beaten by letting it spread through healthy people to kill it off rather than a nationwide lockdown that could allow coronavirus to rise again later in the year."
I feel loathe to defend the Daily Mail but I think that's a stretch given this was a budget in response to a health crisis.
Its like a simplistic version of Matt who is excellent at picking two of the day's stories and distilling them together.
I come back to Italy:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That's why I think the notion pushed by some that this is part of a "let it grow" strategy is nonsense.
Coronavirus Can Live in Patients for Five Weeks After Contagion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/coronavirus-can-live-in-patients-for-five-weeks-after-contagion?srnd=premium-europe
1. Its very possible, maybe probable that we encounter worse than Italy currently has at the UK peak. This probability will likely apply to all of Europe and most of the northern Hemisphere.
2. They are not trying to prevent "current Italy" but something far worse, and will accept current Italy for a lower risk of the potentially much worse scenario.
But what I rather doubt is the notion that science is everything here and thus there will be one clear and obvious best response free of politics and political judgment.
https://twitter.com/ianmartin/status/1238082225779990528?s=21
Universal Declaration of Human Rights - I think even the rogue state US is part of that one?
Both the original SARS and MERS viruses did not become major ongoing issues, and the evidence from the Far East is that recovery is underway already.
As a Frontovik, I am not always informed about what the General Staff are up to. My contacts are in Public Health forecasting rather than strategic planning. I have seen preparations gradually building, but am concerned at the low stocks of protective equipment. I would be greatly reassured if we had major stocks of these in warehouses. Without equipment we are playing Russian Roulette.
PS My two days of skiing were magnificent. Great snow, sunshine, no queues or indeed no people. Did the Sella Ronda in record time. Gotta tan.
That is very different to saying that the govt answer is the only scientific one or guaranteed to be best. Indeed its almost certain that an outside expert will have a better course of action somewhere (as outside experts might have hundreds of thousands of different strategies to the govts one chosen strategy).
Which VPN would you recommend for me and family?
Model 1:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission.
April-May: Surge: 95% of all infections occur.
June: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Model 2:
March: Build-up following start of community transmission.
April-May-June: Surge: 95% of all infections occur.
July: Cool-down: Infections drop.
Does that sound about right?
You can also get HideMyAssPro...
The Irish decision is interesting as I thought we might be more in step with each other.
And while we may be doing some things well, the fact that last night we had 3000 people from Madrid - one of the biggest Covid hotspots in Europe - wandering around Liverpool, suggests we're not exactly being overly risk averse.
PrivateInternetAccess has had a very good reputation for many many years, although there is concern that an Israeli company recently purchased them*. I have used them for ~10 years and never had any outage, always good speeds, and the software is now very solid on all platforms.
* The concern is that because Israel likes to provide the US intell, obviously it could be that Uncle Sam gets a look at what your doing or access to do so.
"British government wants UK to acquire coronavirus 'herd immunity', writes Robert Peston"
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/
"... doctors in China detected the virus’s RNA in respiratory samples from survivors for a median of 20 days after they became infected"
"By comparison, only a third of patients with SARS still harbored the virus in their respiratory tract after as long as four weeks, the Chinese scientists said."
A third of SARS last 28 days, half of Covid-19 last 20 days and one or two cases of COVID-19 case lasted 37 days. Seems totally consistent to me.
How many Spaniards do you think are currently in the UK? Do you think they're all in Liverpool?
School children and Uni students (along with most of the parents of these) are below the critical age for complications and are the ideal base for herd imunity, as they inhabit one of the prime incubation arenas of future waves of the disease, where herd imunity is obviously required to prevent future epidemics.
We want to diffuse the bomb. We want a pandemic by design. We think we can do that.
It's brave Minister.
I imagine this is going to be a very challenging few weeks for our government and its experts.
Everyone will be screaming for them to start doing something but they are like the commanding officers in Zulu, hold steady boys. Wait wait wait, FIRE!
I am not commenting for obvious reasons.