So, what does "moving to the delay stage" tomorrow mean ?
Closing schools, public events, promoting home working, and keeping your distance from each other
And washing your hands with soap and hot water for 20 seconds
Other edicts will come along no doubt
Apparently, all of things but in a minor way because, again, doing it fully would have people ‘rebelling’ against it.
Apparently behavioural science has the upper hand over anything else in government.
You really couldn’t make it up.
I think you are missing the length of time argument. It is all very well saying don't leave your house for a week or two.
You try three or four months.
If it will save lives, I’m okay with that, I can do that.
People need to be educated now on how a matter of days can make a difference.
Let those who don’t agree prance around and put themselves in the firing line but don’t let them drag others down with them.
Yes.
This is our World War 2. That much is now clear.
Life is going to be really quite a lot shittier for quite a while, maybe months, maybe years. But it is going to happen.
But what was World War 2 for the average citizen in the UK? It was a time of great inconvenience, and some fear, but for most - no more than that. They had to endure blackouts. And rationing. And boring austerity. And a lot of bombing in some cities, which was truly scary and horrific.
Thousands died..... but most didn't. Most were fine.
We will get through.
As the Americans say, the Greatest Generation got through. Are we up to it? No one under 80 basically has experienced what looks like happening.
I think we're up to it. I wish it hadn't happened to us, but yes, we are still the same people. We have the right stuff.
Some of the stories of health workers in China are truly inspiring. They will be the front line in the West as they were in the East. The best that the rest of us can do is the obvious, give them less stress, stay home, don't get ill, take your vitamins, do the right exercise, cope with the solitude.
We face a social blackout, as our forefathers faced a literal blackout. But they endured, and we will too.
What music do you think works best as a soundtrack to your posts?
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
There is square root of f##k all chance I will be eating anything that wasn't cooked by me and I won't be ordering raw loose food. Packaged and frozen veg / fruit only.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
Its been annoying as I received a load of McD's vouchers a few weeks ago.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
"Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways."
This is why the government needs to effectively nationalise small businesses for a temporary period. No small business* should be allowed to go under from lack of demand during this crisis.
The decisions are essentially political, and politicians are notoriously bad at science.
That is why Boris has scientific advisors.
Honestly, I give up. This epidemic will be the subject of endless scrutiny in the years, in the decades to come. It is one of the most important events of our lives. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, will be sweating spinal fluid to get this right. His reputation is on the line, just as much as Boris. He is not going to stand by, while Boris ignores his advice.
And Boris isn't going to ignore his advice.
There is too much at stake for both Boris and Chris, if they get this wrong.
Of all the things that could be happening, the most unlikely is that Whitty is saying one thing to Boris, and Boris is ignoring it.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I mean it is a huge step, but I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Yes I know we still need a certain level of production of essentials. As long as food and medicine is still available, the power / water / internet works, surely we can do this.
The initial Italian decision to keep bars and restaurants open was barmy. Hopefully the UK government aren't going to repeat this.
Some of us have managed to live without Starbucks and Deliveroo all their lives.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I mean it is a huge step, but I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Yes I know we still need a certain level of production of essentials. As long as food and medicine is still available, the power / water / internet works, surely we can do this.
The initial Italian decision to keep bars and restaurants open was barmy. Hopefully the UK government aren't going to repeat this.
Some of us have managed to live without Starbucks and Deliveroo all their lives.
The only time I have used Deliveroo is when my friends kids have been round and they appear to love the excitement of using the app. I can never get over the cost of using the service, but I always say to them you are going to pay with your money, you can use it, but you know if we didn't you could get more food.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
Can we finally bury the 'it's just like seasonal flu' thing once and for all please?
No one can still really hold that position who isn't totally ignorant of what is happening on the ground.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
"Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways."
This is why the government needs to effectively nationalise small businesses for a temporary period. No small business* should be allowed to go under from lack of demand during this crisis.
* except pangolin and bat sales.
Plus vape shops. And London Estate Agents. Oh and anyone selling “bubble tea”.
The decisions are essentially political, and politicians are notoriously bad at science.
That is why Boris has scientific advisors.
Honestly, I give up. This epidemic will be the subject of endless scrutiny in the years, in the decades to come. It is one of the most important events of our lives. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, will be sweating spinal fluid to get this right. His reputation is on the line, just as much as Boris. He is not going to stand by, while Boris ignores his advice.
And Boris isn't going to ignore his advice.
There is too much at stake for both Boris and Chris, if they get this wrong.
Of all the things that could be happening, the most unlikely is that Whitty is saying one thing to Boris, and Boris is ignoring it.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
Can we finally bury the 'it's just like seasonal flu' thing once and for all please?
No one can still really hold that position who isn't totally ignorant of what is happening on the ground.
Well it is, if the human race had never encountered it before and there was no vaccine or drugs to treat it.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
The only material thing I know about the Italian healthcare system is that their doctors get lawsuits in almost unbelievable quantities. I have no idea if their systems deal well or poorly with "typical" or slightly worse than average flu seasons (say a year when they get the vaccine wrong) but I also don't rightly know that I would be aware of it if they did go into meltdown on a regular basis.
I can certainly believe it's a regular occurrence, however.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
There is square root of f##k all chance I will be eating anything that wasn't cooked by me and I won't be ordering raw loose food. Packaged and frozen veg / fruit only.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
Can we finally bury the 'it's just like seasonal flu' thing once and for all please?
No one can still really hold that position who isn't totally ignorant of what is happening on the ground.
The thing about "it's just like seasonal flu" is that it's a mix of two misconceptions, the other of which being that most people severely underestimate just how nasty the actual influenza virus is.
If people's baselines for flu were in a more accurate place, "a somewhat worse version of that" might trigger a different reaction, even before we get on to arguing over exactly how much worse this is.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
There is square root of f##k all chance I will be eating anything that wasn't cooked by me and I won't be ordering raw loose food. Packaged and frozen veg / fruit only.
Surely boiling/roasting veg will kill the virus?
Got to handle it first. And I don't really like baked Apple :-)
I am very much of the mind set, delivery arrive, anti-bac wipe all packing down, wash hands, put away.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
As I posted earlier our surgery have closed their 8.00 - 10.00 sit and wait system and is banning everyone from calling at the surgery who has not telephoned in first and been triaged
Seems very sensible to me
Yes agree. Only people who are well should go to the doctors.
Anecdote: my mates GP's now has a sign saying strictly no entry unless you have an appointment and the appointment phoning process involves questions on travel etc etc
Aside from "my mate's GP" (LOL) so are they banning people who might be ill from attending the GP surgery? Just a healthy people's place?
It's to stop morons who are keeping calm and carrying on rocking up with the virus and infecting all the old dears. Sensible stuff that one.
Absolutely. We can extend it to all kinds of illnesses.
Are you ill? Well stay away from your GP so worried well morons can use up the appointments.
No because that would be stupid. This is a highly infectious disease that is now a global pandemic.
Have you always been this dense or have you just bumped your head or something?
What is the percentage of people in the UK who have it?
No one knows that you fucking cretin.
So you are crapping yourself with no stats?
Figures.
Apologies for swearing. I'm just trying to explain to you why it would be a bit of a bad idea for people with infectious deadly diseases, particularly deadly in the elderly, rocking up in surgeries predominantly filled with the elderly.
The second order issue, apart from infecting them all, is that the surgery will be shut for days whilst it gets a deep clean, thereby depriving everyone in that practice of their primary care.
It's all good. This is an internet forum. A lot goes.
My point is that it is worse than normal flu but how much worse? Five times? Ten times? But without the Coronavirus people still go to the GP with flu.
I don't remember normal flu causing the near collapse of an Italian Health system before. And this is not just the UK. Italy, Denmark, Germany and Spain are all well ahead of us in terms of closing down public life. I am not saying that I think we are necessarily behind the curve. As I said I have faith in the Government advisors. But the idea this is anything like just normal flu would seem to be flying far in the face of all the evidence.
Can we finally bury the 'it's just like seasonal flu' thing once and for all please?
No one can still really hold that position who isn't totally ignorant of what is happening on the ground.
The thing about "it's just like seasonal flu" is that it's a mix of two misconceptions, the other of which being that most people severely underestimate just how nasty the actual influenza virus is.
If people's baselines for flu were in a more accurate place, "a somewhat worse version of that" might trigger a different reaction, even before we get on to arguing over exactly how much worse this is.
It's curious that flu came to be used as a synonym for feeling under the weather when it's been responsible for several pandemics.
The decisions are essentially political, and politicians are notoriously bad at science.
That is why Boris has scientific advisors.
Honestly, I give up. This epidemic will be the subject of endless scrutiny in the years, in the decades to come. It is one of the most important events of our lives. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, will be sweating spinal fluid to get this right. His reputation is on the line, just as much as Boris. He is not going to stand by, while Boris ignores his advice.
And Boris isn't going to ignore his advice.
There is too much at stake for both Boris and Chris, if they get this wrong.
Of all the things that could be happening, the most unlikely is that Whitty is saying one thing to Boris, and Boris is ignoring it.
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
Just wait until the government finally realizes its policy is a huge, massively dangerous failure and announces that it'll be doing all the things it previously said were a bad idea. The faithful will undergo a flash of inspiration as bad becomes good and good becomes bad.
Again I find it quite bizarre the shock on people faces, when they say close everything. I think we can all live without Starbucks or a Deliveroo takeaway for a few months.
Indeed, steer well clear of takeaways. I am increasingly unwilling to eat food prepared outside my household, or with cutlery that I didn't wash myself.
There is square root of f##k all chance I will be eating anything that wasn't cooked by me and I won't be ordering raw loose food. Packaged and frozen veg / fruit only.
Surely boiling/roasting veg will kill the virus?
Got to handle it first. And I don't really like baked Apple :-)
I am very much of the mind set, delivery arrive, anti-bac wipe all packing down, wash hands, put away.
Milton fluid, as used in baby stabilizers, for 10 min, ensuring everything is below the surface, is the best way for loose items. Use a stronger dilution of 1 cap (30 ml) per litre of water.
The virus can only live for a couple of days on contaminated objects, so an alternative is to simply keep stuff for a while before preparing it.
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
Just wait until the government finally realizes its policy is a huge, massively dangerous failure and announces that it'll be doing all the things it previously said were a bad idea. The faithful will undergo a flash of inspiration as bad becomes good and good becomes bad.
Which "bad ideas"?
So far the only "bad idea" dismissed is "take it on the chin and get it over with" - other things have been "not yet" rather than "never".
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
Just wait until the government finally realizes its policy is a huge, massively dangerous failure and announces that it'll be doing all the things it previously said were a bad idea. The faithful will undergo a flash of inspiration as bad becomes good and good becomes bad.
The government cannot be wrong, by definition.
Thing is I don't trust Boris as far as I can throw him. But in this instance it is clear he is listening to his scientific advisors and doing what they say. If you are saying that I as an individual should just ignore what those advisors say when I know bugger all about the subject but they have a lifetime of experience and all the data then really you are saying we should just make it up as we go along.
The Government is almost always wrong in some way. But given the choice between those who know what they are talking about and a collection of people I enjoy chatting with on the internet, I know which ones I would be putting my faith in.
For the "they are making it up as they go along" brigade - sneak peek.....they have a plan:
Business as usual 7.4 During a pandemic, the Government will encourage those who are well to carry on with their normal daily lives for as long and as far as that is possible, whilst taking basic precautions to protect themselves from infection and lessen the risk of spreading influenza to others (see Chapter 4). The UK Government does not plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during any pandemic.
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
Just wait until the government finally realizes its policy is a huge, massively dangerous failure and announces that it'll be doing all the things it previously said were a bad idea. The faithful will undergo a flash of inspiration as bad becomes good and good becomes bad.
The government cannot be wrong, by definition.
So you’ve already decided that the pre-advertised (at the start) ramping up of the response will be a U-turn?
More than one thing can be true at once. Our Government’s response is led by world leading experts and is as good as any and better than most. Doesn’t mean other approaches aren’t valid but ours isn’t “wrong”.
One thing that definitely true is that very few of our opinions on here are relevant or useful. In these circumstances, like it or not, the best thing you can do is do as you are told and hope for the best.
I am touched by your faith in our elders and betters. It is rare to find nowadays.
Just wait until the government finally realizes its policy is a huge, massively dangerous failure and announces that it'll be doing all the things it previously said were a bad idea. The faithful will undergo a flash of inspiration as bad becomes good and good becomes bad.
The government cannot be wrong, by definition.
Thing is I don't trust Boris as far as I can throw him. But in this instance it is clear he is listening to his scientific advisors and doing what they say. If you are saying that I as an individual should just ignore what those advisors say when I know bugger all about the subject but they have a lifetime of experience and all the data then really you are saying we should just make it up as we go along.
The Government is almost always wrong in some way. But given the choice between those who know what they are talking about and a collection of people I enjoy chatting with on the internet, I know which ones I would be putting my faith in.
Yeah. This pretty neatly sums up my views. Whitty and Vallance are highly regarded, and while everyone will come to their own conclusions, I feel that W&V's conclusions are almost certainly in the top 0.1% to 1% in terms of what's best for the country.
The post mortem of this crisis will be fascinating. If this virus spreads as easily as is speculated, which I'm somewhat doubtful of, then some politician's legacies will be hundreds of thousands to millions of excess deaths. 600,000 US war deaths occurred across WWI, WWII, and Vietnam, at the moment it seems like Trump may be odds on to cause at least that many deaths.
International travel, border restrictions and screening 4.18 The Foreign and Commonwealth Office will issue advice regarding travel to affected countries. There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic. The UK generally has a high level of international connectivity, and so is likely to be one of the earlier countries to receive infectious individuals. Modelling suggests that imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK at the point a pandemic emerges would only delay the peak of a pandemic wave by one to two weeks. Even a 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by only two months. During 2009 it became clear that the pandemic virus had already spread widely before international authorities were alerted, suggesting that in any case the point of pandemic emergence had been missed by several weeks. The economic, political and social consequences of border closures would also be very substantial, including risks to the secure supply of food, pharmaceuticals and other supplies
Reuters reporting that there are 15 new infections in mainland China, eight of which are in Hubei. There have been 11 new deaths, ten of which were in Hubei.
Do we seriously believe that a country the size and population of China will only be seeing 15 new cases across the whole of the country.
Maybe there is a special relationship? I see no reason to exclude us.
Substantially lower infection rate (so far)?
IF they are smart they will ban travel of passengers from countries, (as others have done, especially China, Iran) rather than flights from countries - or we're going to see streams of Europeans going through Heathrow to get round the ban. Virgin's days of flying empty planes back & forth may be over.
Bastard virus is destroying not just our health and economy but our conversation too.
Ah well....
Night all. X
I did answer it Cyclefree. Pointed out about the CCA and RIPA.
But no one replied.....
Thank you @Cyclefree! I too hope the virus comments are toned down. The micro blogs published on this site are always high quality and seem a little underappreciated by the general conversations. I hope the current plague bearers realise that not every microbiological nuance has to be explored and that by doing so they are removing some of the more interesting conversations that draw people here.
When I discovered this site I was and still am amazed by the depth of knowledge that people high in their professions provide for free. I feel that in their rush to examine the days issues, lengthy, well researched and pertinent works are being cast aside.
To the person who off topic-ed my comment about comparing the situation when Germany and Italy both had/have 2,000 cases, would you mind explaining why you think that's an irrelevant comparison to make? Thanks.
To the person who off topic-ed my comment about comparing the situation when Germany and Italy both had/have 2,000 cases, would you mind explaining why you think that's an irrelevant comparison to make? Thanks.
Bizarrely, it was actually on topic!
(I wouldn't worry. Usually it's fat finger syndrome on the iPhone)
I'm sure HMG is getting the best scientific advice possible to achieve its goals at a time of great uncertainty: on stuff like testing strategy, if/when to tell people to stay at home, shutting down sport and concerts, or limiting inbound flights. And BoJo seems willing to follow, so I largely trust the "big calls" even if they aren't perfect in retrospect. There'll be some guesses - who knows how people will react to unprecedented lockdowns in a Western society - but they'll be very well-informed guesses. Perhaps the advice turns out correct, perhaps wrong, and quite possibly it's the best that could be made from current evidence but turns out sub-optimal in the light of what we'll know in a year's time. If so, then so be it. Even someone experienced and well-informed (as John Ashton is) isn't in a good position to second-guess the officials' advice.
Having said that, I'll reiterate "I'm sure HMG is getting the best scientific advice possible to achieve its goals". The likes of Ashton and Horton would, on a range of issues, prioritise health over economics or personal liberty to a greater extent than most politicians. If in power they'd have somewhat different goals to HMG, whose "balanced response" would be replaced by a more aggressive and even draconian one. I suspect their disagreement partly stems from differences in philosophy/priorities, as well as their interpretation of the evidence (presumably their focus is international comparisons, but that's tough with data comparability issues and whether interventions would translate to a UK context; they also can't see HMG's models).
In terms of HMG's handling of the pandemic, the execution of their decisions shows a few alarming signs (eg PPE/training for healthcare workers, lack of advice at airports). That doesn't undermine my trust in their advisers but does reduce my faith that their advice will be successfully implemented.
In terms of do I trust what HMG and their advisers are telling me then mostly, but not completely. Their comms policy has multiple objectives so deliberately (and quite correctly) they're going to sometimes prefer simple messages to complex, nuanced explanations of the evidence. On things they want to keep up their sleeves (eg future lockdowns) they're duty-bound to obfuscate. They won't tell me how to stay safe as possible if risk-minimisation advice is seen to "jump the gun" (too panic-inducing, distracts from the wash-hands, use-tissue messaging or whatever) of their strategy. Advice on travel to Italy was curiously tardy. Advice on work-from-home equivocal, even though just telling employers "it's a valid request for those with various health needs, please be supportive although we aren't saying all must work from home at this time" might have sufficed to trigger some firms into action. And VIPs right at the top end of HMG either haven't been given basic risk-minimisation precautions (despite some awful international precedents) or aren't following them.
OK so people who want to travel between the US and the rest of the EU now have to make a stop in the UK. Normally this would be welcome, but...
Depends. If it's simply "suspend direct flights" then yes.
On the other hand if its "refuse entry to people to have been to countries in EU in last X days" (as other countries are doing to China, Iran, Korea - eg Australia) then no. Also American citizens not affected by this ban (as Australia on Australian citizens).
Yep. September 2001, I looked up at the skies over DC and saw no con trails and thought to myself, this will be the only time in my life that I'll see this. 2010, in Ljubljana, I said to myself "Well, I was wrong on that one"
Yep. September 2001, I looked up at the skies over DC and saw no con trails and thought to myself, this will be the only time in my life that I'll see this. 2010, in Ljubljana, I said to myself "Well, I was wrong on that one"
Must have been very surreal. Was the 2010 ash for an entire month? I thought that was over quite quickly.
Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson test positive for coronavirus in Australia
But contracted where...? The real numbers in America must be absolutely horrendous. I can’t believe focussing on international travel to the US is what his experts are telling him.
Foreign nationals (excluding permanent residents of Australia) who have been in the following countries will not be allowed to enter Australia for 14 days from the time they have left or transited through: mainland China Iran Republic of Korea Italy.
Bloody hell, why did he leave us out? Must European leaders must have been praying he did this before they had to do it themselves.
We've got one of the lowest percentages of cases per capita.
Some people might think that indicates a low detection rate, rather than a low infection rate.
Doesn't the UK have one of the highest testing rates per capita?
I don't think so. The UK has reported 1-2K test/day over the last 10 days for a total still below 30k. Our authorities were announcing a week ago that test capacities had been expanded by a couple of thousand to 12k/day (and possibly more since then). At the weekend an official claimed that they were well into six figure range in total.
Bloody hell, why did he leave us out? Must European leaders must have been praying he did this before they had to do it themselves.
We've got one of the lowest percentages of cases per capita.
Some people might think that indicates a low detection rate, rather than a low infection rate.
Doesn't the UK have one of the highest testing rates per capita?
I don't think so. The UK has reported 1-2K test/day over the last 10 days for a total still below 30k. Our authorities were announcing a week ago that test capacities had been expanded by a couple of thousand to 12k/day (and possibly more since then). At the weekend an official claimed that they were well into six figure range in total.
Aren't you comparing apples and oranges there? Actual tests vs. capacity.
Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson test positive for coronavirus in Australia
But contracted where...? The real numbers in America must be absolutely horrendous. I can’t believe focussing on international travel to the US is what his experts are telling him.
They are not telling him that. But I feel that CDC have got this quite wrong, even as state health officials know precisely what is needed.
The CDC focus at first was on validating a single test that replicated the methodology of flu testing so that testing results would (1) be of high quality, (2) be standardized and hence directly comparable across each of the State's public health systems, and (3) be easy to scale as it would piggyback on the flu testing labs already accredited.
But then the test could not be validated outside of the CDC labs, and so everything fell behind schedule, there were not enough test kits and testing capacity was limited to CDC, so strict criteria on who should be tested were put in place, which then got interpreted every more strictly to the point that physicians simply find it next to impossible to get permission to get people tested. Frankly, some of the stories from the medical community sound like they are straight out of a Kafka novel.
Ironically, the meeting at the National Defense University tomorrow on the biosafety and biosecurity risks of COVID I was supposed to go to has been cancelled because of COVID.
NBA season suspended. Utah Jazz player that mocked coronavirus by touching every reporters' mike 48 hours ago has tested positive. Darwin awards potentially going to have a massive field to choose from.
Tom Hanks and wife Rita Wilson test positive for coronavirus in Australia
But contracted where...? The real numbers in America must be absolutely horrendous. I can’t believe focussing on international travel to the US is what his experts are telling him.
Wilson (Hank's wife) was in LA on Feb 28 and in Australia early March - so depending on incubation period - could be either US or Oz.
Hanks has diabetes, which isn't a great start.....
South Korea and the UK are being held up by medical critics of the Trump Administration as the way it should have been done here.
The first of those two is correct.
Do you apply the same level of contempt to other Govt responses in Europe as you do to the UK?
Yes.
I'm just finding it hard to believe that eastern Asian countries seem have worked out how to keep the spread of this thing under control and their economies working at the same time, without coercion, much of it with simple, common-sense leadership, and the US and Europe have completed ignored what they've been doing for weeks, followed inevitably by huge, disruptive lock-downs when the numbers get to where the numbers were always projected to get to.
"Please consider cancelling events and large gatherings unless they are essential. Please work from home if practical". Why is this hard?
Comments
This is why the government needs to effectively nationalise small businesses for a temporary period. No small business* should be allowed to go under from lack of demand during this crisis.
* except pangolin and bat sales.
Honestly, I give up. This epidemic will be the subject of endless scrutiny in the years, in the decades to come. It is one of the most important events of our lives. The Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, will be sweating spinal fluid to get this right. His reputation is on the line, just as much as Boris. He is not going to stand by, while Boris ignores his advice.
And Boris isn't going to ignore his advice.
There is too much at stake for both Boris and Chris, if they get this wrong.
Of all the things that could be happening, the most unlikely is that Whitty is saying one thing to Boris, and Boris is ignoring it.
No one can still really hold that position who isn't totally ignorant of what is happening on the ground.
I can certainly believe it's a regular occurrence, however.
May your God go with you.
If people's baselines for flu were in a more accurate place, "a somewhat worse version of that" might trigger a different reaction, even before we get on to arguing over exactly how much worse this is.
I am very much of the mind set, delivery arrive, anti-bac wipe all packing down, wash hands, put away.
Which is of no interest to anyone but me.
Bastard virus is destroying not just our health and economy but our conversation too.
Ah well....
Night all. X
The government cannot be wrong, by definition.
The virus can only live for a couple of days on contaminated objects, so an alternative is to simply keep stuff for a while before preparing it.
So far the only "bad idea" dismissed is "take it on the chin and get it over with" - other things have been "not yet" rather than "never".
The Government is almost always wrong in some way. But given the choice between those who know what they are talking about and a collection of people I enjoy chatting with on the internet, I know which ones I would be putting my faith in.
But no one replied.....
Business as usual
7.4 During a pandemic, the Government will encourage those who are well to carry on with their normal daily lives for as long and as far as that is possible, whilst taking basic precautions to protect themselves from infection and lessen the risk of spreading influenza to others (see Chapter 4). The UK Government does not plan to close borders, stop mass gatherings or impose controls on public transport during any pandemic.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf
More than one thing can be true at once. Our Government’s response is led by world leading experts and is as good as any and better than most. Doesn’t mean other approaches aren’t valid but ours isn’t “wrong”.
One thing that definitely true is that very few of our opinions on here are relevant or useful. In these circumstances, like it or not, the best thing you can do is do as you are told and hope for the best.
The post mortem of this crisis will be fascinating. If this virus spreads as easily as is speculated, which I'm somewhat doubtful of, then some politician's legacies will be hundreds of thousands to millions of excess deaths. 600,000 US war deaths occurred across WWI, WWII, and Vietnam, at the moment it seems like Trump may be odds on to cause at least that many deaths.
4.18 The Foreign and Commonwealth Office will issue advice regarding travel to affected countries. There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic. The UK generally has a high level of international connectivity, and so is likely to be one of the earlier countries to receive infectious individuals. Modelling suggests that imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK at the point a pandemic emerges would only delay the peak of a pandemic wave by one to two weeks. Even a 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by only two months. During 2009 it became clear that the pandemic virus had already spread widely before international authorities were alerted, suggesting that in any case the point of pandemic emergence had been missed by several weeks. The economic, political and social consequences of border closures would also be very substantial, including risks to the secure supply of food, pharmaceuticals and other supplies
Reuters reporting that there are 15 new infections in mainland China, eight of which are in Hubei. There have been 11 new deaths, ten of which were in Hubei.
Do we seriously believe that a country the size and population of China will only be seeing 15 new cases across the whole of the country.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wh
When Italy had around 2,000 cases on 3rd March (as Germany has now), it had recorded 52 deaths. Germany has recorded 3.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://web.archive.org/web/20200303000625/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
IF they are smart they will ban travel of passengers from countries, (as others have done, especially China, Iran) rather than flights from countries - or we're going to see streams of Europeans going through Heathrow to get round the ban. Virgin's days of flying empty planes back & forth may be over.
When I discovered this site I was and still am amazed by the depth of knowledge that people high in their professions provide for free. I feel that in their rush to examine the days issues, lengthy, well researched and pertinent works are being cast aside.
Stop it you shits!
Wonder if he thinks Ireland is part of the UK?
(I wouldn't worry. Usually it's fat finger syndrome on the iPhone)
Having said that, I'll reiterate "I'm sure HMG is getting the best scientific advice possible to achieve its goals". The likes of Ashton and Horton would, on a range of issues, prioritise health over economics or personal liberty to a greater extent than most politicians. If in power they'd have somewhat different goals to HMG, whose "balanced response" would be replaced by a more aggressive and even draconian one. I suspect their disagreement partly stems from differences in philosophy/priorities, as well as their interpretation of the evidence (presumably their focus is international comparisons, but that's tough with data comparability issues and whether interventions would translate to a UK context; they also can't see HMG's models).
In terms of HMG's handling of the pandemic, the execution of their decisions shows a few alarming signs (eg PPE/training for healthcare workers, lack of advice at airports). That doesn't undermine my trust in their advisers but does reduce my faith that their advice will be successfully implemented.
In terms of do I trust what HMG and their advisers are telling me then mostly, but not completely. Their comms policy has multiple objectives so deliberately (and quite correctly) they're going to sometimes prefer simple messages to complex, nuanced explanations of the evidence. On things they want to keep up their sleeves (eg future lockdowns) they're duty-bound to obfuscate. They won't tell me how to stay safe as possible if risk-minimisation advice is seen to "jump the gun" (too panic-inducing, distracts from the wash-hands, use-tissue messaging or whatever) of their strategy. Advice on travel to Italy was curiously tardy. Advice on work-from-home equivocal, even though just telling employers "it's a valid request for those with various health needs, please be supportive although we aren't saying all must work from home at this time" might have sufficed to trigger some firms into action. And VIPs right at the top end of HMG either haven't been given basic risk-minimisation precautions (despite some awful international precedents) or aren't following them.
On the other hand if its "refuse entry to people to have been to countries in EU in last X days" (as other countries are doing to China, Iran, Korea - eg Australia) then no. Also American citizens not affected by this ban (as Australia on Australian citizens).
You're right, it was not 30 days, but it felt like it stuck away from home ...
Foreign nationals (excluding permanent residents of Australia) who have been in the following countries will not be allowed to enter Australia for 14 days from the time they have left or transited through:
mainland China
Iran
Republic of Korea
Italy.
https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/news-media/current-alerts/novel-coronavirus
Our authorities were announcing a week ago that test capacities had been expanded by a couple of thousand to 12k/day (and possibly more since then). At the weekend an official claimed that they were well into six figure range in total.
The CDC focus at first was on validating a single test that replicated the methodology of flu testing so that testing results would (1) be of high quality, (2) be standardized and hence directly comparable across each of the State's public health systems, and (3) be easy to scale as it would piggyback on the flu testing labs already accredited.
But then the test could not be validated outside of the CDC labs, and so everything fell behind schedule, there were not enough test kits and testing capacity was limited to CDC, so strict criteria on who should be tested were put in place, which then got interpreted every more strictly to the point that physicians simply find it next to impossible to get permission to get people tested. Frankly, some of the stories from the medical community sound like they are straight out of a Kafka novel.
Ironically, the meeting at the National Defense University tomorrow on the biosafety and biosecurity risks of COVID I was supposed to go to has been cancelled because of COVID.
Hanks has diabetes, which isn't a great start.....
But seriously, it's everywhere in the US now.
I'm just finding it hard to believe that eastern Asian countries seem have worked out how to keep the spread of this thing under control and their economies working at the same time, without coercion, much of it with simple, common-sense leadership, and the US and Europe have completed ignored what they've been doing for weeks, followed inevitably by huge, disruptive lock-downs when the numbers get to where the numbers were always projected to get to.
"Please consider cancelling events and large gatherings unless they are essential. Please work from home if practical". Why is this hard?
So dumb. So, so dumb.