If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
They are predicting the peak is 2-3 weeks and that makes sense. So yes, we should prepare for 2-3 weeks of shit and chaos in April, hopefully by the summer relative normality is back. There is no reason to expect permanent shit and chaos.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
It helped tremendously by impacting the deficit, which is going to blow wide open again now (hopefully temporarily) which we couldn't afford had we been borrowing tons more.
Plus of course austerity has fallen on non-healthcare primarily. Health expenditure has gone up in real terms every single year.
I think we will see on Wednesday that no-one gives a stuff about the deficit.
At a time of emergencies nobody should.
At a time of growth people must.
The problem you have is when some arsonist like Brown expands the deficit at a time of growth leaving you excessively vulnerable at a time of an emergency. Thankfully for the last decade the deficit has come down every year so while we're not in surplus (which I'd prefer going into a recession) we are as well prepared as we reasonably can be.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
What is it about our capacity of ICU beds that makes you think we will fare better than other nations?
Besides the other steps we are taking, our well funded NHS.
Countries in Europe that have undergone real austerity (not the nominal kind we have) have been cutting their healthcare expenditure at the same time we have been increasing ours annually.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
Given England has the fewest beds in the developed world per 1000 population ( almost half that of Scotland even ), I am not sure how you work that one out. Japan has 13 , Korea 12 , Germany 8 and England 2.4
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
They are predicting the peak is 2-3 weeks and that makes sense. So yes, we should prepare for 2-3 weeks of shit and chaos in April, hopefully by the summer relative normality is back. There is no reason to expect permanent shit and chaos.
50% over 3-weeks. 90% over 9 weeks. I think we might be looking at a slightly longer period of shit and chaos than you describe.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
What is it about our capacity of ICU beds that makes you think we will fare better than other nations?
Besides the other steps we are taking, our well funded NHS.
Countries in Europe that have undergone real austerity (not the nominal kind we have) have been cutting their healthcare expenditure at the same time we have been increasing ours annually.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
Besides there's still more than 4 years to go before the next election.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
What is it about our capacity of ICU beds that makes you think we will fare better than other nations?
Besides the other steps we are taking, our well funded NHS.
Countries in Europe that have undergone real austerity (not the nominal kind we have) have been cutting their healthcare expenditure at the same time we have been increasing ours annually.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
What is it about our capacity of ICU beds that makes you think we will fare better than other nations?
Besides the other steps we are taking, our well funded NHS.
Countries in Europe that have undergone real austerity (not the nominal kind we have) have been cutting their healthcare expenditure at the same time we have been increasing ours annually.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Not as much as other nations thankfully.
Given England has the fewest beds in the developed world per 1000 population ( almost half that of Scotland even ), I am not sure how you work that one out. Japan has 13 , Korea 12 , Germany 8 and England 2.4
Wales has the lowest number of beds in the developed world. It is of course the worst out of England, Scotland, Wales and NI.
Wales, failed by Labour since 1999.
If only, like the Scots, we had booted Labour out ...
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
That's genuinely wonderful news!
It certainly is. If China could be both the source of the infection and the scientific frontrunner in finding a cure, that would be quite something.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
It's "up to". In Singapore it's 9 out of 150, so far.
At the moment because of a lull in lew infections and recovery of many who are infected; the fraction was higher earlier on. And that's the problem, the thing that matters for hospitals is preventing as much as possible a large surge in demand over a short space of time.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
That's genuinely wonderful news!
It *might* be. One has to take all medical news with a large pinch of salt. I'd want to see some properly presented trial results - preferably replicated elsewhere - before getting too excited.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Here is the tracker (in Italian - the gotcha translation is that ricoverati means hospitalised but, in this context, non intensive care):
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
Besides there's still more than 4 years to go before the next election.
I tend to think this will be like Black Wednesday. If the public decide that the government mishandled the virus and were responsible for more deaths, then they will have made their mind up. They will stop listening to the government and all that will remain will be to decide which Opposition party to vote for to turf them out.
There's no sign of such a decision being made, but if it is made it will be final.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
I also don't think that a comparison with other countries makes any difference. If x thousand people die in Britain and the public think it would have been y thousand were it not for the government's incompetence, then the public won't give a fig that z thousand died in Italy, or wherever.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
I also don't think that a comparison with other countries makes any difference. If x thousand people die in Britain and the public think it would have been y thousand were it not for the government's incompetence, then the public won't give a fig that z thousand died in Italy, or wherever.
It can change quickly but so far the polls are showing the public thinks the government is handling this competently. Having Professor Whitty being the public face of giving out information is the right thing to do both scientifically and politically as he knows what he is talking about and is trusted more than a politician ever could be.
That seems unlikely to change to me unless this country suffers worse than Italy or wherever.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
If by "no obligations" you mean no extraneous obligations over and above comparable ones Canada etc agreed to then yes I do.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
That's genuinely wonderful news!
It certainly is. If China could be both the source of the infection and the scientific frontrunner in finding a cure, that would be quite something.
It's not a 'cure' as such.
Actemra (the Roche brand name for the drug) seems to damp down the cytokine storm (the body's immune system seems to do a great deal of the damage in the worst effected patients) and stops it destroying the lungs.
The French pharma Sanofi also makes a drug (like Actemra) targeting the receptor of interleukin 6 (IL-6), the proinflammatory cytokine which seems to be implicated in the runaway immune reaction.
Because the reason public transport is being kept open is economically driven, not public health driven. It is pretty obvious from the pattern of spread that for instance airports have been a major source of transmission.
Exactly. There is a complex interplay between the health and financial aspects of this crisis. Hopefully the PM will prove more of a "Johnson" than a "Boris" in managing our response to it.
I also don't think that a comparison with other countries makes any difference. If x thousand people die in Britain and the public think it would have been y thousand were it not for the government's incompetence, then the public won't give a fig that z thousand died in Italy, or wherever.
But, how did the public get the number "y thousand" ?
They get it by looking at comparable countries and saying "x thousand" died here, why did "z thousand" die there ? It should have been "y thousand" here.
The Tories may feck this up -- but they do have an enormous advantage, in that they can see what is happening in countries that are ahead of us.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
Yeah because in a time of extreme stress where patients are being treated in corridors, there is another set of patients just lounging around in ICU even if they don't need to be there.
My God. It's like hearing the ramblings of an apparatchik after being confronted by the scientists investigating Chernobyl.
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
Something I want to be true but I take everything coming out of China with a pinch of salt. The pressure to show the world they’ve put a lid on this - “face” - is simply huge.
That said, they won’t bother/care too much about the regulations that prevent us from jumping straight to human trials in China.
They’ll start testing on ill patients as soon as they’ve got something as a calculated gamble.
The Tories may feck this up -- but they do have an enormous advantage, in that they can see what is happening in countries that are ahead of us.
The common factor of every country affected by this except China seems to be ignoring what they're watching happening in countries that are ahead of them.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
That's genuinely wonderful news!
It certainly is. If China could be both the source of the infection and the scientific frontrunner in finding a cure, that would be quite something.
It's not a 'cure' as such.
Actemra (the Roche brand name for the drug) seems to damp down the cytokine storm (the body's immune system seems to do a great deal of the damage in the worst effected patients) and stops it destroying the lungs.
The French pharma Sanofi also makes a drug (like Actemra) targeting the receptor of interleukin 6 (IL-6), the proinflammatory cytokine which seems to be implicated in the runaway immune reaction.
There seem to be a number of people all around the world working on different vaccines and treatments, like this one. Hopefully their work can be completed as quickly as possible, although I understand that verifying this kind of process takes time.
Re Germany, quality of organisation and the number of beds available obviously seems to be key, but even beyond that something looks odd and interestingly different, just from my epidemiologically amateur point of view.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
"The screen of the PC with the chief complaint is always the same: fever and respiratory difficulty, fever and cough, respiratory insufficiency etc ... Exams, radiology always with the same sentence: bilateral interstitial pneumonia. All needs to be hospitalized. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before."
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Greatly. The public rightly recognised that what happened in the UK was much worse than what happened in the rest of the world thanks to Gordon Brown's mismanagement and blamed him accordingly.
Don't know how accurate this might be, but interesting.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/ China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
Something I want to be true but I take everything coming out of China with a pinch of salt. The pressure to show the world they’ve put a lid on this - “face” - is simply huge.
That said, they won’t bother/care too much about the regulations that prevent us from jumping straight to human trials in China.
They’ll start testing on ill patients as soon as they’ve got something as a calculated gamble.
If the drug is already certified for use, what then needs to happen before it is tried for coronavirus sufferers?
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
Yeah because in a time of extreme stress where patients are being treated in corridors, there is another set of patients just lounging around in ICU even if they don't need to be there.
My God. It's like hearing the ramblings of an apparatchik after being confronted by the scientists investigating Chernobyl.
It shows why the panic to have hundreds of toilet rolls is so endemic, people have no understanding of reality.
Anyone giving absolutely clear directions about an uncertain fast moving event such as this should not be listened to too seriously at this time, expert or not. There is a range of measures we can take, they each have pluses and minuses with uncertain and unknowable pay offs.
Decisions need to be prediction led with an understanding that those decisions may not turn out well rather than absolute.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Greatly. The public rightly recognised that what happened in the UK was much worse than what happened in the rest of the world thanks to Gordon Brown's mismanagement and blamed him accordingly.
Not sure much of southern Europe would agree with you.
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
I am pointing out an obvious attack line (or defence line).
Also, I think there is a difference between the credit crunch and a pandemic. It was plausible that Labour's actions did contribute to the credit crunch (e.g in loosening controls on the financial markets in London).
It is not yet plausible that the Tories made COVID-19.
If there is a completely bungled response, you are right -- the Tories will be blamed.
I am merely pointing out that it is a huge advantage to be able to see what is happening in Italy or France or Germany, and to frame your policy in the light of it.
Also, we will be able to assess the devolved Government's running of their NHS.
I think it would take someone very optimistic to think that Wales is going to come out top of the statistics, when we look at England, Scotland, Wales and NI separately.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Greatly. The public rightly recognised that what happened in the UK was much worse than what happened in the rest of the world thanks to Gordon Brown's mismanagement and blamed him accordingly.
Not sure much of southern Europe would agree with you.
Yes they would. Much of Southern Europe's governments had also mismanaged their economies like Gordon Brown had mismanaged Britain's. The voters of those nations paid attention and ejected their governments like we did ours, while voters in nations that hadn't mismanaged the economy unlike Brown were less likely to eject their government in response. See for example Canada.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Because its critically important to the UK and what the government cares about. Its not critically important to the EU and the EU have other concerns they'd rather be dealing with.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
No.
I don't think the EU will be "taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit" whatever. I think they'll put EU interests first (which is not the same thing). Best case for EU is effective single market membership (even if not in name). Beyond that it becomes a trade off between frictionless trade and not simultaneously allowing UK to undercut on costs by lowering standards (i.e. getting a competitive advantage that the EU can't mitigate with tariff/non-tariff barriers and which would hurt their own domestic producers). If the UK wishes to diverge on standards then the EU may feel the need to apply tariffs or other barriers (latter potentially just to allow checks).
I hope (and think, assuming the extreme hardliners are not too involved) that the UK will also approach the talks with it's own interests first. There are legitimate differences of opinion on what is in UK's best interests. I'd prioritise frictionless trade with EU above all else, but others believe there would be more advantage on diverging in standards and/or getting a US trade deal (which would probably mean diverging from EU standards).
I can respect different positions on what is in the UK's best interests and whether that ultimately leads to a deal or not. I cannot respect childish ideas that the EU are out to punish us, which confuses simply putting their best interests before ours (as we're no longer EU) as we should also put our best interests before theirs - do you imagine/hope we also to have hurting the EU (possibly against our interests) as a negotiating objective?
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great.
The Markle sparkle. It is a loss.
Yes, but it's the press's doing rather than the Firm's. They were very happy with her, particularly the Queen.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
I gather our testing is taking 5 days to turn around a result - so our stats are missing 5 days worth of positives.
Yes, but most of the identified cases are in isolation, and a bunch of unidentified ones will be at home feeling unwell. How many carriers there are out and about is anybody's guess. If you said 2000 then an audience of 20,000 has a 50:50 chance of one amid the crowd.
But it is not anyone's guess.
The Govt should have access to statistical models of the spread that will be able to answer this question reasonably reliably.
Just a reminder that 11 people from Valencia were infected after going to a football match in Italy. It could of course have been the plane on the return flight.
At least as important as the large event (sports, conference, exhibition) itself is the impact of having thousands of people travelling to one city and then back again.
One fan watching a match in a stadium with 50000 spectators will probably "interact with" roughly the same number of people as one with 2000 spectators, but it is the coming into contact with new people which spreads the virus.
I was surprised to hear that Trevor Philips had still been a party member following his letter to the Guardian last year stating that he could not vote Labour . That alone would have merited his removal .
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Because its critically important to the UK and what the government cares about. Its not critically important to the EU and the EU have other concerns they'd rather be dealing with.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
No.
I don't think the EU will be "taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit" whatever. I think they'll put EU interests first (which is not the same thing). Best case for EU is effective single market membership (even if not in name). Beyond that it becomes a trade off between frictionless trade and not simultaneously allowing UK to undercut on costs by lowering standards (i.e. getting a competitive advantage that the EU can't mitigate with tariff/non-tariff barriers and which would hurt their own domestic producers). If the UK wishes to diverge on standards then the EU may feel the need to apply tariffs or other barriers (latter potentially just to allow checks).
I hope (and think, assuming the extreme hardliners are not too involved) that the UK will also approach the talks with it's own interests first. There are legitimate differences of opinion on what is in UK's best interests. I'd prioritise frictionless trade with EU above all else, but others believe there would be more advantage on diverging in standards and/or getting a US trade deal (which would probably mean diverging from EU standards).
I can respect different positions on what is in the UK's best interests and whether that ultimately leads to a deal or not. I cannot respect childish ideas that the EU are out to punish us, which confuses simply putting their best interests before ours (as we're no longer EU) as we should also put our best interests before theirs - do you imagine/hope we also to have hurting the EU (possibly against our interests) as a negotiating objective?
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
I am pointing out an obvious attack line (or defence line).
Also, I think there is a difference between the credit crunch and a pandemic. It was plausible that Labour's actions did contribute to the credit crunch (e.g in loosening controls on the financial markets in London).
It is not yet plausible that the Tories made COVID-19.
If there is a completely bungled response, you are right -- the Tories will be blamed.
I am merely pointing out that it is a huge advantage to be able to see what is happening in Italy or France or Germany, and to frame your policy in the light of it.
Also, we will be able to assess the devolved Government's running of their NHS.
I think it would take someone very optimistic to think that Wales is going to come out top of the statistics, when we look at England, Scotland, Wales and NI separately.
If the NHS in England is seen to fall short with C-19 the Tories will get the blame here, whether or not Wales, Scotland & NI are seen to do worse.
I was surprised to hear that Trevor Philips had still been a party member following his letter to the Guardian last year stating that he could not vote Labour . That alone would have merited his removal .
If that is why he was removed then there wouldn't be much comment over that. That's not the story.
I was surprised to hear that Trevor Philips had still been a party member following his letter to the Guardian last year stating that he could not vote Labour . That alone would have merited his removal .
And allied with Toby Young on "free speech". Sacking offence surely?
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great.
The Markle sparkle. It is a loss.
It would have been a false feeling so good thing it never happened.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
In real time, 10% of those currently with symptoms are in ICU (650/6387).
And, also quite importantly, another 55%ish of those currently showing symptoms are hospitalised (3557/6387).
10% currently with symptoms are in ICU is a very different measure to 10% of cases require ICU.
You are roughly speaking the first officer of the Titanic speculating that perhaps the passengers are just having a little sit down in the lifeboats because the seats are so comfortable.
It looks as if ICU bed and personnel numbers are going to be the crunch issues here. Our numbers are so bad and so linkable to austerity that this will lose the Tories an election.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Because its critically important to the UK and what the government cares about. Its not critically important to the EU and the EU have other concerns they'd rather be dealing with.
Asymmetric ambitions.
I call it wishful thinking.
The FT have had some interesting articles recently on the asymmetry in the negotiations. The UK and EU have different ambitions and also different views on what happens if no trade deal is reached.
Normally in trade negotiations no trade deal would mean both sides lose out proportionately equally but that's no longer the case due to both sides having completely different ambitions. If there is no trade deal now then that moves our trading arrangements very close to what the UK is seeking and completely away from what the EU wants.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
In real time, 10% of those currently with symptoms are in ICU (650/6387).
And, also quite importantly, another 55%ish of those currently showing symptoms are hospitalised (3557/6387).
10% currently with symptoms are in ICU is a very different measure to 10% of cases require ICU.
You are roughly speaking the first officer of the Titanic speculating that perhaps the passengers are just having a little sit down in the lifeboats because the seats are so comfortable.
It looks as if ICU bed and personnel numbers are going to be the crunch issues here. Our numbers are so bad and so linkable to austerity that this will lose the Tories an election.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Because its critically important to the UK and what the government cares about. Its not critically important to the EU and the EU have other concerns they'd rather be dealing with.
Asymmetric ambitions.
I call it wishful thinking.
The FT have had some interesting articles recently on the asymmetry in the negotiations. The UK and EU have different ambitions and also different views on what happens if no trade deal is reached.
Normally in trade negotiations no trade deal would mean both sides lose out proportionately equally but that's no longer the case due to both sides having completely different ambitions. If there is no trade deal now then that moves our trading arrangements very close to what the UK is seeking and completely away from what the EU wants.
I suspect it may all become an irrelevancy pretty soon.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Greatly. The public rightly recognised that what happened in the UK was much worse than what happened in the rest of the world thanks to Gordon Brown's mismanagement and blamed him accordingly.
Not sure much of southern Europe would agree with you.
Yes they would. Much of Southern Europe's governments had also mismanaged their economies like Gordon Brown had mismanaged Britain's. The voters of those nations paid attention and ejected their governments like we did ours, while voters in nations that hadn't mismanaged the economy unlike Brown were less likely to eject their government in response. See for example Canada.
Gordon Brown did not mismanage the economy. Southern Europe was screwed by Germany and the Euro. Canada's rapid recovery was largely due to exports to China and the United States, aided by a drop in exchange rates. See also Australia.
Sorry to be vulgar and political, but does Coronavirus mean we'll now get a great trade deal from the EU? I can't see anyone in the EU now taking the attitude of punishing the UK even if it means hurting the EU a bit.
Do you see anyone in th UK government holding out for free trade with no obligations?
Yes.
Why would the UK stick to its guns despite the crisis and the EU cave in because of it?
Because its critically important to the UK and what the government cares about. Its not critically important to the EU and the EU have other concerns they'd rather be dealing with.
Asymmetric ambitions.
I call it wishful thinking.
The FT have had some interesting articles recently on the asymmetry in the negotiations. The UK and EU have different ambitions and also different views on what happens if no trade deal is reached.
Normally in trade negotiations no trade deal would mean both sides lose out proportionately equally but that's no longer the case due to both sides having completely different ambitions. If there is no trade deal now then that moves our trading arrangements very close to what the UK is seeking and completely away from what the EU wants.
I suspect it may all become an irrelevancy pretty soon.
I agree. Which as I suggested is advantage UK. The UK can stick to its principle of seeking the same arrangements as Canada and the EU can think "bugger this, we've got better things to worry about" and sign up to that.
We drove yesterday up to the edge of the exclusion zone. We were expecting to see roadblocks or controls in place and we didn’t see anything at all. Cars were going in both directions. It seemed as though the control of this restricted zone is quite loose, and that is a bit difficult to understand. Is this simply too big an area to control and close off in the heart of Europe in this way or are the restrictions gradually coming into place?
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great.
The Markle sparkle. It is a loss.
If black people can only identify with black people and white people only with white people then we’ve got absolutely nowhere in the last 50 years.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
Greatly. The public rightly recognised that what happened in the UK was much worse than what happened in the rest of the world thanks to Gordon Brown's mismanagement and blamed him accordingly.
Not sure much of southern Europe would agree with you.
Yes they would. Much of Southern Europe's governments had also mismanaged their economies like Gordon Brown had mismanaged Britain's. The voters of those nations paid attention and ejected their governments like we did ours, while voters in nations that hadn't mismanaged the economy unlike Brown were less likely to eject their government in response. See for example Canada.
Gordon Brown did not mismanage the economy. Southern Europe was screwed by Germany and the Euro. Canada's rapid recovery was largely due to exports to China and the United States, aided by a drop in exchange rates. See also Australia.
Gordon Brown did mismanage the economy. Are you a deficit denier still? Its hard to imagine they still exist, its like meeting a climate change denier.
I think that if someone is grieving for their dead Uncle Bob it's not much solace to them if a Minister argues that if they'd been in Italy they would have had it worse and their Aunt Alice would have died too.
This is not to say that I expect the government to be blamed, but I don't think relative performance will be the determining factor.
Britain might arguably have been better prepared for WWII than France, but it didn't do Chamberlain much good.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
That only works if the UK deaths are worse than say Germany or France.
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
How much did the public compare what happened in the UK re credit crunch with the rest of the world? If your in charge when it happens (and the build up to it) you get the blame. You are assigning the great British public far too much rationality.
In very many ways, Great Britain chooses to ignore the experiences and the results from the rest of the world using the reasoning 'we do things differently here'.
Have to say I don’t take much notice of the Royal family’s goings on, and never had an opinion on Meghan Markle one way or the other. But seeing this clip of her with the young boy from Robert Clack in Dagenham on Saturday makes me think it is a real opportunity missed for the Royal Family to have a black princess. It could have given Black people a feeling of having a stake in the country, skin in the game, and bring us closer together, which I guess is what the RF are for.There is another bit where he winks as he hugs her that I can’t find, it really is great.
The Markle sparkle. It is a loss.
If black people can only identify with black people and white people only with white people then we’ve got absolutely nowhere in the last 50 years.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
They are predicting the peak is 2-3 weeks and that makes sense. So yes, we should prepare for 2-3 weeks of shit and chaos in April, hopefully by the summer relative normality is back. There is no reason to expect permanent shit and chaos.
The model is 3 weeks, 50% of the total to get it will go down with it, 9 weeks, 95%. So in best case scenario we are looking at 3 months of chaos.
If black people can only identify with black people and white people only with white people then we’ve got absolutely nowhere in the last 50 years.
Not saying that. It's more that a charismatic intelligent "modern" woman was good for the Royals. The mixed race attribute was just icing on that cake.
I think that if someone is grieving for their dead Uncle Bob it's not much solace to them if a Minister argues that if they'd been in Italy they would have had it worse and their Aunt Alice would have died too.
This is not to say that I expect the government to be blamed, but I don't think relative performance will be the determining factor.
Britain might arguably have been better prepared for WWII than France, but it didn't do Chamberlain much good.
We were better prepared than France but the Frogs weren't our rivals. We weren't as prepared as the Nazis.
People die every day of every year. I'm hopeful my octagenarian and nonagenarian grandparents survive this, but accept that morbidity is an issue for everyone ultimately.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
10% of those with it. As of yesterday, 650 in Italy were in ICU which, if scaling with the size of outbreaks in various regions suggests 400-500 in Lombardy. And still growing, of course.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Is it 10% require ICU or 10% are in ICU? There's a difference.
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
In real time, 10% of those currently with symptoms are in ICU (650/6387).
And, also quite importantly, another 55%ish of those currently showing symptoms are hospitalised (3557/6387).
10% currently with symptoms are in ICU is a very different measure to 10% of cases require ICU.
You are roughly speaking the first officer of the Titanic speculating that perhaps the passengers are just having a little sit down in the lifeboats because the seats are so comfortable.
It looks as if ICU bed and personnel numbers are going to be the crunch issues here. Our numbers are so bad and so linkable to austerity that this will lose the Tories an election.
Ha! We'll see.
We'll see about the second point. On the first, you don't go desperately creating new ICU beds as italy is doing but treating existing ones as surplus to requirements.
I met Trevor Philips at a cricket match ohh maybe 10+ years ago, and he was very forthright in his views and that he had changed his mind. At the time, I thought perhaps he was tailoring his message to the surroundings i.e. a small local village cricket match with the only non-white player being the imported pro.
But actually I think he was speaking honestly about how he felt.
I was surprised to hear that Trevor Philips had still been a party member following his letter to the Guardian last year stating that he could not vote Labour . That alone would have merited his removal .
If that is why he was removed then there wouldn't be much comment over that. That's not the story.
I don't disagree , but am surprised that he was not suspended from membership at the time of the letter. Today's headlines would then have been avoided.
Gordon Brown did mismanage the economy. Are you a deficit denier still? Its hard to imagine they still exist, its like meeting a climate change denier.
And equally hard to imagine there remains anybody who maintains that the impact of the GFC on the UK was about the modest deficit going into it rather than the fact that the City was so bloated in size, corrupt and incompetent in practice, and poorly regulated.
Comments
In a global event, the obvious thing to do is compare the UK to other similar countries.
The Tories have an enormous advantage that the UK are behind Italy, France and Germany in terms of timescale.
Only if the UK death rate is say double the German or French one will it pan out as you say.
At a time of growth people must.
The problem you have is when some arsonist like Brown expands the deficit at a time of growth leaving you excessively vulnerable at a time of an emergency. Thankfully for the last decade the deficit has come down every year so while we're not in surplus (which I'd prefer going into a recession) we are as well prepared as we reasonably can be.
China optimizes treatment for novel coronavirus disease
https://www.shine.cn/news/nation/2003063629/
China has expanded and optimized the utilization of drugs and therapies in the treatment of the novel coronavirus disease to block the conversion of mild cases to severe cases and save critically ill patients.
Tocilizumab, with the common brand name Actemra, has been included in China's latest version of diagnosis and treatment guidelines on COVID-19.
Zhou Qi, deputy secretary-general and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said at a press conference Friday that the drug Tocilizumab has been found effective to block the inducement of the inflammatory storm.
In an initial clinical trial, Tocilizumab was used in 20 severe COVID-19 cases. And the body temperatures of all the patients dropped within one day. Nineteen of the patients were discharged from the hospital within two weeks, and one got better, according to Zhou.
Currently, the drug is under clinical trials in 14 hospitals in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, Zhou said.
As of March 5, a total of 272 severe patients had been treated with Tocilizumab....
Countries in Europe that have undergone real austerity (not the nominal kind we have) have been cutting their healthcare expenditure at the same time we have been increasing ours annually.
https://www.racefans.net/2020/03/09/no-chance-melbourne-will-ban-f1-fans-from-race-due-to-coronavirus/
Fig. 1figure1 Tried to paste chart but Germany 29.2/100,000 UK 6.6 Spain 9.7
Wales, failed by Labour since 1999.
If only, like the Scots, we had booted Labour out ...
One has to take all medical news with a large pinch of salt. I'd want to see some properly presented trial results - preferably replicated elsewhere - before getting too excited.
If we compare that with the total of 4000 ICU beds in the UK, with around 800 free in normal times, you can start to see the scale to which a peak will stretch us.
Here is the tracker (in Italian - the gotcha translation is that ricoverati means hospitalised but, in this context, non intensive care):
https://lab.gedidigital.it/gedi-visual/2020/coronavirus-i-contagi-in-italia/
There's no sign of such a decision being made, but if it is made it will be final.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
If spare ICU beds are available it makes sense to put the sick and contagious into ICU even if they don't need to be there.
That seems unlikely to change to me unless this country suffers worse than Italy or wherever.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1236957617395765249
Actemra (the Roche brand name for the drug) seems to damp down the cytokine storm (the body's immune system seems to do a great deal of the damage in the worst effected patients) and stops it destroying the lungs.
The French pharma Sanofi also makes a drug (like Actemra) targeting the receptor of interleukin 6 (IL-6), the proinflammatory cytokine which seems to be implicated in the runaway immune reaction.
They get it by looking at comparable countries and saying "x thousand" died here, why did "z thousand" die there ? It should have been "y thousand" here.
The Tories may feck this up -- but they do have an enormous advantage, in that they can see what is happening in countries that are ahead of us.
My God. It's like hearing the ramblings of an apparatchik after being confronted by the scientists investigating Chernobyl.
https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1236918438808911872?s=21
And, also quite importantly, another 55%ish of those currently showing symptoms are hospitalised (3557/6387).
That said, they won’t bother/care too much about the regulations that prevent us from jumping straight to human trials in China.
They’ll start testing on ill patients as soon as they’ve got something as a calculated gamble.
Re Germany, quality of organisation and the number of beds available obviously seems to be key, but even beyond that something looks odd and interestingly different, just from my epidemiologically amateur point of view.
https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_of_a_surgeon_working_in_bergamo_in_the/
Decisions need to be prediction led with an understanding that those decisions may not turn out well rather than absolute.
Also, I think there is a difference between the credit crunch and a pandemic. It was plausible that Labour's actions did contribute to the credit crunch (e.g in loosening controls on the financial markets in London).
It is not yet plausible that the Tories made COVID-19.
If there is a completely bungled response, you are right -- the Tories will be blamed.
I am merely pointing out that it is a huge advantage to be able to see what is happening in Italy or France or Germany, and to frame your policy in the light of it.
Also, we will be able to assess the devolved Government's running of their NHS.
I think it would take someone very optimistic to think that Wales is going to come out top of the statistics, when we look at England, Scotland, Wales and NI separately.
Asymmetric ambitions.
I hope (and think, assuming the extreme hardliners are not too involved) that the UK will also approach the talks with it's own interests first. There are legitimate differences of opinion on what is in UK's best interests. I'd prioritise frictionless trade with EU above all else, but others believe there would be more advantage on diverging in standards and/or getting a US trade deal (which would probably mean diverging from EU standards).
I can respect different positions on what is in the UK's best interests and whether that ultimately leads to a deal or not. I cannot respect childish ideas that the EU are out to punish us, which confuses simply putting their best interests before ours (as we're no longer EU) as we should also put our best interests before theirs - do you imagine/hope we also to have hurting the EU (possibly against our interests) as a negotiating objective?
(the above addressed to @Luckyguy1983 , not @Casino_Royale )
One fan watching a match in a stadium with 50000 spectators will probably "interact with" roughly the same number of people as one with 2000 spectators, but it is the coming into contact with new people which spreads the virus.
Interestingly I already take such medicine: Adalimumab. I wonder if it has similar effects.
It’s very expensive.
It looks as if ICU bed and personnel numbers are going to be the crunch issues here. Our numbers are so bad and so linkable to austerity that this will lose the Tories an election.
Normally in trade negotiations no trade deal would mean both sides lose out proportionately equally but that's no longer the case due to both sides having completely different ambitions. If there is no trade deal now then that moves our trading arrangements very close to what the UK is seeking and completely away from what the EU wants.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b078hlsz
We drove yesterday up to the edge of the exclusion zone. We were expecting to see roadblocks or controls in place and we didn’t see anything at all. Cars were going in both directions. It seemed as though the control of this restricted zone is quite loose, and that is a bit difficult to understand. Is this simply too big an area to control and close off in the heart of Europe in this way or are the restrictions gradually coming into place?
Megan Markle has added more to inter-ethnic harmony, and is more articulate.
This is not to say that I expect the government to be blamed, but I don't think relative performance will be the determining factor.
Britain might arguably have been better prepared for WWII than France, but it didn't do Chamberlain much good.
https://twitter.com/thesun/status/1236958657767550977?s=21
This place just gets more unpleasant by the day. I just hope it does not reflect society in general.
All I have pointed out is that Boris has an enormous accidental advantage, because of timing and geography.
To return to the example of the credit crunch, it affected the financial markets of all countries almost simultaneously.
Boris has 3 weeks warning before what happened in Italy will happen here. And he can learn from the actions that Italy, France & Germany are taking.
Any competent Government, listening to its medical. modelling and statistical experts, should be able to get this largely right.
Would you care to give examples?
People die every day of every year. I'm hopeful my octagenarian and nonagenarian grandparents survive this, but accept that morbidity is an issue for everyone ultimately.
But actually I think he was speaking honestly about how he felt.