Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
A sense of proportion would be a good idea. People 50 miles away from the closest case are panicking about shaking hands while every airport in Europe is still open and the underground is still running.
For what it’s worth, my large German-owned client was quickest to ban holding meetings.
Is this impacting your retirement plans?
I’d stress tested for a crash in the markets. I didn’t expect to need to rely on that!
I should be ok. Quite apart from anything else, profits from a law firm partnership are paid out over time, so I won’t be decumulating for quite a while.
This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?
The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.
Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.
How many budgets had Javid presented?
So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change
It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?
Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?
Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.
Is that it?
Do you think a budget thrown together in 2 weeks is going be of higher quality than one written over 3 months?
As chief secretary he would have been part of the discussion and analysis, especially on spending (traditionally the CS holds the purse strings and the CofE does tax plus compromises with the SoSs when they complain about how mean the CS is)
R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.
Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.
What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?
Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.
Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.
There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.
Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.
Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference
Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.
Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.
Malpensa airport Milan still having lots of departures and arrivals....
Yes I don't understand why they haven't suspended flights and rail travel. Apparently residents of other parts of Italy have been told they can go home. Surely they should go into quarantine first?
R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.
Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.
What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?
Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.
Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.
There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.
Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.
Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference
Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.
Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.
No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it
Can Italy suspend Schengen to stop people leaving? Presumably they should have asked those countries with common borders to stop Italians leaving. Agree that FoM is largely irrelevant as many people will be resident in foreign countries and not going anywhere, especially back home to Italy.
It depends on what you mean by suspend Schengen. Italy is allowed to lock down specific areas or the whole country with good reason. It is not allowed to discriminate between Italians, Germans, Irish, latvians,..etc, or against British (for the moment) in terms of who can cross any such restrictions.
» show previous quotes Not by telling old people to f*** off and die.
No but they are quite blunt about it, having just had the experience of my wife being measured up, they were not all sugar and spice. It was a very blunt case of I am here to decide whether it is worth giving you an ICU bed, it was quite shocking to be fair.
Before this current crisis my brother and I were told that dad will no longer be going to hospital when ill anymore - they tried to put it nicely but it was effectively saying no point spending resources on him.
Bless him, he is still hanging on in there.
Towards the end of her life, my sister was told she would not be going to hospital again as she signed a DNR but when the time came the nursing home phoned for an ambulance who took her to hospital
She died in the intensive care 5 hours later
There is a big difference between Do Not Resuscitate and Do Not Treat, though lay folk understandably often confuse the two.
DNR is opting out of resuscitation via CPR and cardioversion only, not further treatment. Further treatment would include curative therapies, even major surgery.
It's starting to look as if the General Election was one to lose.
Never thought I'd say so.
The Labour leadership election may also be one to lose. It's going to be really, really difficult to know whether attack lines are available at all or whether being all national unityish is the only way forward. "Underfunded NHS" may not be such a killer point if the scale turns out to be such that giving the nhs £350m a day for the last 10 years would have made bugger all difference.
This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?
The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.
Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.
How many budgets had Javid presented?
So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change
It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?
Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?
Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.
Is that it?
For 5 minutes, not even enough time to count the paperclips. However given he is just a sockpuppet and strings are being pulled from next door it will not make much difference. Hence why they got rid of the awkward chappie who had a mind of his own and did not take 100% of orders.
R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.
Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.
What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?
Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.
Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.
There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.
Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.
Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference
Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.
Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.
No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it
Can Italy suspend Schengen to stop people leaving? Presumably they should have asked those countries with common borders to stop Italians leaving. Agree that FoM is largely irrelevant as many people will be resident in foreign countries and not going anywhere, especially back home to Italy.
It depends on what you mean by suspend Schengen. Italy is allowed to lock down specific areas or the whole country with good reason. It is not allowed to discriminate between Italians, Germans, Irish, latvians,..etc, or against British (for the moment) in terms of who can cross any such restrictions.
But it did - people living abroad are being allowed to leave the region; Italians are not (in theory at least)
Liking my Dow short, I must say. Smug city in a very big way.
Also liking the relentless drift in the Trump price as more and more people cotton on to the obvious truth that he is unelectable.
Not liking this virus panic however. It's unnerving me a bit now.
Both Trump and Biden are looking less and less electable to me, in the midst of what will be a highly unpredictable economic crisis. If Biden carries on weakening in his public appearances, Trump may still emerge as the preferred strongman in a crisis, however much he's considered partially responsible for it, and associated with it.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
Kay Burley show on Sky at breakfast is hopeless summed up with her disappearing to the US for 4 days last week to cover their politics when very few voters here care a jot
Then this morning she announces that the FTSE has fallen by 8%, while on screen behind her Sky were showing the FTSE at 6462.55 down 3.62%
Indeed they still are
She must have talents off-camera because her on-camera ones are not overwhelmingly obvious.
It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?
The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.
I reckon we could have another 50% to go. Perhaps 70%.
Eadric has moved from people doom to shares doom, what a bell end
Kay Burley show on Sky at breakfast is hopeless summed up with her disappearing to the US for 4 days last week to cover their politics when very few voters here care a jot
Then this morning she announces that the FTSE has fallen by 8%, while on screen behind her Sky were showing the FTSE at 6462.55 down 3.62%
Indeed they still are
She must have talents off-camera because her on-camera ones are not overwhelmingly obvious.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
The thinking is still that people going to pubs and round to friends' front rooms is worse.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
Not really. He said "no plans to" and referenced the CMO's advice. If that advice changed I expect they would immediately make plans. Clearly a no-denial denial.
In thinking about the prospects for limiting the spread by "social distancing," it's worth bearing in mind some of the figures from the WHO report on China: (1) In Guangdong province, the secondary infection rate within households was between 3 and 10%. (2) From tracing of "close contacts," three datasets showed infection rates of about 1%, 3% and 5%.
I would guess those figures are lower than most people would assume.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
Not really. He said "no plans to" and referenced the CMO's advice. If that advice changed I expect they would immediately make plans. Clearly a no-denial denial.
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.
Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.
What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?
Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.
Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.
There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.
Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.
Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference
Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.
Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.
No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it
Can Italy suspend Schengen to stop people leaving? Presumably they should have asked those countries with common borders to stop Italians leaving. Agree that FoM is largely irrelevant as many people will be resident in foreign countries and not going anywhere, especially back home to Italy.
It depends on what you mean by suspend Schengen. Italy is allowed to lock down specific areas or the whole country with good reason. It is not allowed to discriminate between Italians, Germans, Irish, latvians,..etc, or against British (for the moment) in terms of who can cross any such restrictions.
But it did - people living abroad are being allowed to leave the region; Italians are not (in theory at least)
The clue here is "living abroad". If a German lives in a travel restricted area in Italy he must be treated the same as an Italian living in that area.
R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.
Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.
What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?
Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.
Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.
There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.
Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.
Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference
Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.
Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.
No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it
Can Italy suspend Schengen to stop people leaving? Presumably they should have asked those countries with common borders to stop Italians leaving. Agree that FoM is largely irrelevant as many people will be resident in foreign countries and not going anywhere, especially back home to Italy.
It depends on what you mean by suspend Schengen. Italy is allowed to lock down specific areas or the whole country with good reason. It is not allowed to discriminate between Italians, Germans, Irish, latvians,..etc, or against British (for the moment) in terms of who can cross any such restrictions.
But it did - people living abroad are being allowed to leave the region; Italians are not (in theory at least)
The clue here is "living abroad". If a German lives in a travel restricted area in Italy he must be treated the same as an Italian living in that area.
Residence is not the same as citizenship.
Which of course explains why the Italian living in London was allowed to fly back, cf. last night's little flurry on here
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
Not really. He said "no plans to" and referenced the CMO's advice. If that advice changed I expect they would immediately make plans. Clearly a no-denial denial.
Yes CMO advice from last week to be fair
COBRA will act on advice from today
With 200 cases and no obvious clustering then there is probably no need at the moment. Mass events like London Marathon may be at risk due to the large crowds (and standing together with your fellow runners in the starting pen). Although Brighton is still expecting to go ahead and has offered places to British runners who can no longer do the cancelled Paris or Rome marathons. Barcelona is off too.
This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?
The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.
Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.
How many budgets had Javid presented?
So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change
It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?
Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?
Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.
Is that it?
For 5 minutes, not even enough time to count the paperclips. However given he is just a sockpuppet and strings are being pulled from next door it will not make much difference. Hence why they got rid of the awkward chappie who had a mind of his own and did not take 100% of orders.
That's "cute", having comments from an SNP supporter on changing Chancellor
This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?
The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.
Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.
How many budgets had Javid presented?
So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change
It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?
Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?
Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.
Is that it?
Do you think a budget thrown together in 2 weeks is going be of higher quality than one written over 3 months?
Yes 100% I do in the current circumstances. 3 months ago was a lifetime ago.
However if it weren't for coronavirus then no I wouldn't, but then Sunak hasn't had 2 weeks to prepare he's been in the post longer than that already and as Chief Secretary of the Treasury he would have been deeply involved in budget planning already.
The Dutch are generally quite laid-back but that's quite a display of complacency in that thread. Getting the balance between panic and nonchalance is not easy, but Dutch authorities are on the wrong side imo. I wonder if that attitude applies also in Germany, given what was posted earlier about the MSM in Germany.
The fact they have as many cases as us with a quarter of the population tells a story
Both Trump and Biden are looking less and less electable to me, in the midst of what will be a highly unpredictable economic crisis. If Biden carries on weakening in his public appearances, Trump may still emerge as the preferred strongman in a crisis, however much he's considered partially responsible for it, and associated with it.
I am nervous about Biden. Him failing to cope with the campaign is my one and only caveat to Trump being toast. I would prefer the Dems to go with Sanders. Or failing that to spring a surprise "unity" candidate. And on Biden I do take some comfort in the thought that if he really is not up to running they will find a way to field an alternative.
If every airport in Europe is still open (including Milan and others in north Italy), along with the Underground and the Metro, why is it so dangerous to shake hands with someone in the street. Have we lost a sense of proportion?
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
But Taiwan's a functioning democracy and has reportedly dealt with it well. It has fewer cases per capita than the UK. That's quite impressive given its location.
The fact that China is apparently getting on top of this, while the US hasn't yet, leads me to think this may cause a recession rather than a depression.
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
But Taiwan's a functioning democracy and has reportedly dealt with it well. It has fewer cases per capita than the UK. That's quite impressive given its location.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
The Dutch are generally quite laid-back but that's quite a display of complacency in that thread. Getting the balance between panic and nonchalance is not easy, but Dutch authorities are on the wrong side imo. I wonder if that attitude applies also in Germany, given what was posted earlier about the MSM in Germany.
The fact they have as many cases as us with a quarter of the population tells a story
of more travel and interchange with Italy and Germany?
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
But Taiwan's a functioning democracy and has reportedly dealt with it well. It has fewer cases per capita than the UK. That's quite impressive given its location.
Why doesn't our government get a similar grip?
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
If every airport in Europe is still open (including Milan and others in north Italy), along with the Underground and the Metro, why is it so dangerous to shake hands with someone in the street. Have we lost a sense of proportion?
Proportion seems very hard with this disease. On the one hand most people are clearly not fatally affected, but the proportion who are are clearly greater, and more rapidly and unexpectedly so, than average flu.
This makes it difficult psychologically to understand what you're fighting against, for most people, I think.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Social distancing measures are additive. Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness. (That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
If every airport in Europe is still open (including Milan and others in north Italy), along with the Underground and the Metro, why is it so dangerous to shake hands with someone in the street. Have we lost a sense of proportion?
Is it because the risk of transmission by deliberate skin-to-skin contact is orders of magnitude higher than casual contact with a passer-by, even in quite close proximity; especially with better hand-washing before eating etc?
I'm somewhat surprised about the airlines, though. They could surely do a simple temperature check before allowing boarding, which would significantly reduce risk.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I heard that and he was referencing advice from last week to HMG
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
Not really. He said "no plans to" and referenced the CMO's advice. If that advice changed I expect they would immediately make plans. Clearly a no-denial denial.
Yes CMO advice from last week to be fair
COBRA will act on advice from today
With 200 cases and no obvious clustering then there is probably no need at the moment. Mass events like London Marathon may be at risk due to the large crowds (and standing together with your fellow runners in the starting pen). Although Brighton is still expecting to go ahead and has offered places to British runners who can no longer do the cancelled Paris or Rome marathons. Barcelona is off too.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Because football matches and the like are not essential thereby reducing unnecessary mixing.
If every airport in Europe is still open (including Milan and others in north Italy), along with the Underground and the Metro, why is it so dangerous to shake hands with someone in the street. Have we lost a sense of proportion?
Is it because the risk of transmission by deliberate skin-to-skin contact is orders of magnitude higher than casual contact with a passer-by, even in quite close proximity; especially with better hand-washing before eating etc?
I'm somewhat surprised about the airlines, though. They could surely do a simple temperature check before allowing boarding, which would significantly reduce risk.
Cleaning their planes and testing all their crew would also be good.
This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?
The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.
Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.
How many budgets had Javid presented?
So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change
An alternative view is that if ever No. 10 and No. 11 needed to be working in lockstep, this is that time.
You really want a rogue Chancellor with his own set of SPADs doing as THEY see fit right now?
Except that when Johnson is accused of being lazy and not a details person the fanboys tell us that it is his style to delegate and let people get on with it.
Cummings is a different matter and is ruthless in bending people to his agenda but I really wonder how excited he is about managing the Covid-19 crisis. I think this kills off a lot of what he was planning and I can see him walking away very soon.
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
That's exactly how it was in Japan - at first. Give it a couple of weeks.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Because football matches and the like are not essential thereby reducing unnecessary mixing.
Very little in modern life essential, but public transport is a far, far greater threat than a stadium.
The fact that China is apparently getting on top of this, while the US hasn't yet, leads me to think this may cause a recession rather than a depression.
I think we may need to see what happens when people go back to work in China.
Though, I agree the figures there (if believable) are grounds for small optimism.
Also, Boris is lucky.
By an accident of geography, he can see what will happen in Italy, France, Germany before it happens here. That is an enormous advantage in planning public policy.
At the end, no-one (except loons on twitter) think the Tories created COVID-19.
They will compare the UK Govt's response and handling to our European neighbours. That should be a relatively easy challenge for the Tories to win -- more by accident than by design.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
I gather our testing is taking 5 days to turn around a result - so our stats are missing 5 days worth of positives.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Because football matches and the like are not essential thereby reducing unnecessary mixing.
Very little in modern life essential, but public transport is a far, far greater threat than a stadium.
And football matches massively increase localised crowding of public transport.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
I gather our testing is taking 5 days to turn around a result - so our stats are missing 5 days worth of positives.
Yes, but most of the identified cases are in isolation, and a bunch of unidentified ones will be at home feeling unwell. How many carriers there are out and about is anybody's guess. If you said 2000 then an audience of 20,000 has a 50:50 chance of one amid the crowd.
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
That's exactly how it was in Japan - at first. Give it a couple of weeks.
Indeed and according to this site Japan has fewer cases than Spain and only 7 deaths to date. Doesn't look like they're doing too badly at all: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I find it intersting the difference between how Covid-19 is being reported in Germany compared to the UK. It seems to me that even with the serious news outlets in the UK, the virus/disease is the story, with live news tickers and evengts like the leaking of the Italian lockdown as main stories.
In Germany, although I don't check the the German tabloids, the main sories in Deutschlandfunk is 1) the MH17 court case, 2) the assylum crisi on the Greek/Turkish border. Number 3 is the drop in oil price, which is in part related to the spread of the virus, but also because of a disagreement between Russia and Saudi. There has been one interview with a German who works in North Italy abut the current situation there. The "broadsheet" websites do have seperate sections with Virus stories, but it is not as conpicuous as in the British papers.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Because football matches and the like are not essential thereby reducing unnecessary mixing.
Very little in modern life essential, but public transport is a far, far greater threat than a stadium.
And football matches massively increase localised crowding of public transport.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
But now think about the cumulative attendance of all the events on at the same time.
This is how a lot of the community spread happened in Japan (a few weeks ago, before most of the events got shut down): There were thousands live events happening up and down the country, and most of them were fine. But one particular event in Osaka had somebody contagious, and that was the source of loads of the cases we're seeing now, all over the country, and probably a bunch of subsequent cases resulting from those.
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
But Taiwan's a functioning democracy and has reportedly dealt with it well. It has fewer cases per capita than the UK. That's quite impressive given its location.
Why doesn't our government get a similar grip?
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
Cases per capita might be quite a good indicator.
Taiwan 45 confirmed cases, population 24 million, Checks were introduced on passengers from mainland China.
UK 273 cases, population 65 million Has had no checks on passengers from N Italy ... or maybe the stable door has now been shut.
SARS 2003-04 is probably one reason for Taiwan doing it well. But a competent country sets up mechanisms to ensure that complacency doesn't creep in, or at least does so less quickly.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Social distancing measures are additive. Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness. (That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
My employer, the DWP, has a staff briefing on Wednesday, maybe a pointer to when the Government thinks the next range of measures might be necessary.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
I gather our testing is taking 5 days to turn around a result - so our stats are missing 5 days worth of positives.
Yes, but most of the identified cases are in isolation, and a bunch of unidentified ones will be at home feeling unwell. How many carriers there are out and about is anybody's guess. If you said 2000 then an audience of 20,000 has a 50:50 chance of one amid the crowd.
But it is not anyone's guess.
The Govt should have access to statistical models of the spread that will be able to answer this question reasonably reliably.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
It helped tremendously by impacting the deficit, which is going to blow wide open again now (hopefully temporarily) which we couldn't afford had we been borrowing tons more.
Plus of course austerity has fallen on non-healthcare primarily. Health expenditure has gone up in real terms every single year.
Part of the explanation for China getting on top of this: (Guardian) Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
I note the number of declared cases in Italy now exceeds that in ROK.
But Taiwan's a functioning democracy and has reportedly dealt with it well. It has fewer cases per capita than the UK. That's quite impressive given its location.
Why doesn't our government get a similar grip?
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
“Get a grip” is a phrase used by people who don’t know what to do but think that saying it will make them appear knowledgable. The next step will be whinging about what that grip means for them and their lifestyle.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Social distancing measures are additive. Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness. (That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
My employer, the DWP, has a staff briefing on Wednesday, maybe a pointer to when the Government thinks the next range of measures might be necessary.
Keep us posted, please.
Coincidentally, I was just reading this...
The Department for Work and Pensions has lost more employment tribunals for disability discrimination than any other employer in Britain since 2016. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51756783 BBC Panorama found the DWP lost 17 of 134 claims of discrimination against its own disabled workers from 2016-19. And it paid out at least £950,000 in both tribunal payments and out-of-court settlements in that time. The DWP said it was "shocked" by the data but was reviewing its processes to ensure all staff were treated fairly....
What evidence is there our government doesn't have a similar grip? The overwhelming majority of our cases are imported by people returning from trips overseas, especially but not just Italy.
That's exactly how it was in Japan - at first. Give it a couple of weeks.
Indeed and according to this site Japan has fewer cases than Spain and only 7 deaths to date. Doesn't look like they're doing too badly at all: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
My point is that the first wave is overseas, subsequent waves (if you don't prevent them) are domestic. Time-wise the UK is a couple of weeks behind Japan, so the community spread hasn't yet had time to happen much. This doesn't tell you much either way about whether the response is working.
A sense of proportion would be a good idea. People 50 miles away from the closest case are panicking about shaking hands while every airport in Europe is still open and the underground is still running.
How do you know if you are 50 miles from the nearest case? You could be living in the Orkneys but the person next to you on the bus could have come back from Italy a few days ago and be infected but not showing symptoms yet.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
The political legacy may be a reverse of the credit crunch. Labour spent a bit too much and took their eyes of the ball but were mostly unfairly blamed for what was a global issue for a decade.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Social distancing measures are additive. Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness. (That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
I hope so and agree about messaging. I think we need strong guidance right now, today or tomorrow, about working from home.
The costs are low so we should just get on with it.
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
What is the point of shutting Anfield or Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge when Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Picadilly or Waterloo Station are still open?
Social distancing measures are additive. Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness. (That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
My employer, the DWP, has a staff briefing on Wednesday, maybe a pointer to when the Government thinks the next range of measures might be necessary.
Keep us posted, please.
Coincidentally, I was just reading this...
The Department for Work and Pensions has lost more employment tribunals for disability discrimination than any other employer in Britain since 2016. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51756783 BBC Panorama found the DWP lost 17 of 134 claims of discrimination against its own disabled workers from 2016-19. And it paid out at least £950,000 in both tribunal payments and out-of-court settlements in that time. The DWP said it was "shocked" by the data but was reviewing its processes to ensure all staff were treated fairly....
I'm shocked the DWP is shocked because it means they are not even keeping tabs on this.
If you assume the 500-odd UK cases are all at large (i.e. for every confirmed case in isolation there is another unidentified carrier out and about), an event would need to have an attendance of about 70,000 (and falling) to have a 50:50 chance of a carrier being in the audience.
I gather our testing is taking 5 days to turn around a result - so our stats are missing 5 days worth of positives.
Yes, but most of the identified cases are in isolation, and a bunch of unidentified ones will be at home feeling unwell. How many carriers there are out and about is anybody's guess. If you said 2000 then an audience of 20,000 has a 50:50 chance of one amid the crowd.
But it is not anyone's guess.
The Govt should have access to statistical models of the spread that will be able to answer this question reasonably reliably.
Just a reminder that 11 people from Valencia were infected after going to a football match in Italy. It could of course have been the plane on the return flight.
Interesting hint of the political battle to come this morning in R4 this morning. How well prepared are we for Coronavirus? Did austerity help by impacting deficit or did it hinder by degrading our health and social care capability?
It helped tremendously by impacting the deficit, which is going to blow wide open again now (hopefully temporarily) which we couldn't afford had we been borrowing tons more.
Plus of course austerity has fallen on non-healthcare primarily. Health expenditure has gone up in real terms every single year.
I think we will see on Wednesday that no-one gives a stuff about the deficit.
If every airport in Europe is still open (including Milan and others in north Italy), along with the Underground and the Metro, why is it so dangerous to shake hands with someone in the street. Have we lost a sense of proportion?
Because the reason public transport is being kept open is economically driven, not public health driven. It is pretty obvious from the pattern of spread that for instance airports have been a major source of transmission.
Comments
Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden has been speaking to BBC Breakfast ahead of a meeting organised by his department with sporting bodies and broadcasters. Asked about holding games behind closed doors as is the case in Italy, he said:
That is an option in the future but we are clear at this point there is no need for events to be cancelled. We are very cognisant of the impact the cancelling of events may have both in terms of the economic and social impact.
He added:
Any decision will be taken on the basis of the facts and the evidence. But we are very clear – at this stage we are still in the contain phase and that means that there is no need to cancel such events, there’s no need for people not to go to sporting events, to museums and so on.
I should be ok. Quite apart from anything else, profits from a law firm partnership are paid out over time, so I won’t be decumulating for quite a while.
DNR is opting out of resuscitation via CPR and cardioversion only, not further treatment. Further treatment would include curative therapies, even major surgery.
Also liking the relentless drift in the Trump price as more and more people cotton on to the obvious truth that he is unelectable.
Not liking this virus panic however. It's unnerving me a bit now.
I think he may have held himself to be a hostage to fortune
See Sky highlighting Salmond arriving at court this morning
I’m tempted to top up on Shell
(1) In Guangdong province, the secondary infection rate within households was between 3 and 10%.
(2) From tracing of "close contacts," three datasets showed infection rates of about 1%, 3% and 5%.
I would guess those figures are lower than most people would assume.
COBRA will act on advice from today
(Guardian)
Getting into one’s apartment compound or workplace requires scanning a QR code, writing down one’s name and ID number, temperature and recent travel history. Telecom operators track people’s movements while social media platforms like WeChat and Weibo have hotlines for people to report others who may be sick. Some cities are offering people rewards for informing on sick neighbours.
Chinese companies are meanwhile rolling out facial recognition technology that can detect elevated temperatures in a crowd or flag citizens not wearing a face mask. A range of apps use the personal health information of citizens to alert others of their proximity to infected patients or whether they have been in close contact.
State authorities, in addition to locking down entire cities, have implemented a myriad of security measures in the name of containing the coronavirus outbreak. From top officials to local community workers, those enforcing the rules repeat the same refrain: this is an “extraordinary time” feichang shiqi, requiring extraordinary measures...
As I said in the previous thread, both Singapore and S Korea (though clearly far less oppressive) have similar systems in operation.
Residence is not the same as citizenship.
But I like the balance of the portfolio and the dividend yield. I assume that the OPEC cartel will get its shit together soon
(I ask them to target absolute returns and they closet track instead so it will be an interesting discussion...)
However if it weren't for coronavirus then no I wouldn't, but then Sunak hasn't had 2 weeks to prepare he's been in the post longer than that already and as Chief Secretary of the Treasury he would have been deeply involved in budget planning already.
Why doesn't our government get a similar grip?
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1236852588798074880
This makes it difficult psychologically to understand what you're fighting against, for most people, I think.
Plus it would send out a pretty strong message.
My guess (FWIW) is that we'll see stronger control measures by the end of this week. Shutting schools two weeks before the Easter holiday, for example, might be seen as quite an attractive option in terms of cost/disruption - effectiveness.
(That is assuming the number of cases increases at its current rate.)
I'm somewhat surprised about the airlines, though. They could surely do a simple temperature check before allowing boarding, which would significantly reduce risk.
Cummings is a different matter and is ruthless in bending people to his agenda but I really wonder how excited he is about managing the Covid-19 crisis. I think this kills off a lot of what he was planning and I can see him walking away very soon.
Though, I agree the figures there (if believable) are grounds for small optimism.
Also, Boris is lucky.
By an accident of geography, he can see what will happen in Italy, France, Germany before it happens here. That is an enormous advantage in planning public policy.
At the end, no-one (except loons on twitter) think the Tories created COVID-19.
They will compare the UK Govt's response and handling to our European neighbours. That should be a relatively easy challenge for the Tories to win -- more by accident than by design.
This is how a lot of the community spread happened in Japan (a few weeks ago, before most of the events got shut down): There were thousands live events happening up and down the country, and most of them were fine. But one particular event in Osaka had somebody contagious, and that was the source of loads of the cases we're seeing now, all over the country, and probably a bunch of subsequent cases resulting from those.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jfB4muWkzKTR0daklmf8D5F0Uf_IYAgcx_-Ij9McClQ/edit#gid=0
Taiwan 45 confirmed cases, population 24 million,
Checks were introduced on passengers from mainland China.
UK 273 cases, population 65 million
Has had no checks on passengers from N Italy ... or maybe the stable door has now been shut.
SARS 2003-04 is probably one reason for Taiwan doing it well. But a competent country sets up mechanisms to ensure that complacency doesn't creep in, or at least does so less quickly.
The Govt should have access to statistical models of the spread that will be able to answer this question reasonably reliably.
Plus of course austerity has fallen on non-healthcare primarily. Health expenditure has gone up in real terms every single year.
If that happens here we are looking at total and utter chaos aren't we?
Coincidentally, I was just reading this...
The Department for Work and Pensions has lost more employment tribunals for disability discrimination than any other employer in Britain since 2016.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51756783
BBC Panorama found the DWP lost 17 of 134 claims of discrimination against its own disabled workers from 2016-19.
And it paid out at least £950,000 in both tribunal payments and out-of-court settlements in that time.
The DWP said it was "shocked" by the data but was reviewing its processes to ensure all staff were treated fairly....
https://twitter.com/CBNNews/status/1236951616663760898
How do you know if you are 50 miles from the nearest case? You could be living in the Orkneys but the person next to you on the bus could have come back from Italy a few days ago and be infected but not showing symptoms yet.
It could easily play the same way for the right over coronavirus, whatever they had done in terms of austerity probably wouldnt have made much difference on this issue, but its an obvious (if unfair and largely incorrect) conclusion to make that austerity is to blame.
The costs are low so we should just get on with it.