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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Italy is getting a bit too close for comfort

Although we now have had three confirmed deaths in the UK the overall scale here is much less than in several other countries that are almost on our doorsteps which is why most of the papers are leading on what’s going on in Northern Italy. Could this be an indication of what things will be like here just a few months on? Northern Italy, after all, is a part of the world which many Brits are familiar with which is why it hits home harder.

Read the full story here

eristdoof

First

Philip_Thompson

I'm glad we have a stable government that can act without thinking too much on a forthcoming election.

Worth thinking that not only could Boris have called an election this year (many suggested the Spring as a date for it) but also if May hadn't called her early election then in an alternate timeline then the FTPA election following 2015 should have been in May too.

IanB2

Third!

AlastairMeeks

The photo placement could be better.

DavidL

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, large contingency fund ready to go?

CarlottaVance

Talking about getting political - EU Parliament decides to keep sessions in Brussels and not shift to Strasbourg.....you can imagine how that's gone down....

https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2020/03/09/le-coronavirus-fait-perdre-la-tete-a-l-union-europeenne_1780978

DavidL

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, large contingency fund ready to go?

Yes, certainly. Also the unequivocal suspension of all finance rules. A completely blank cheque for the NHS, whatever it takes, whatever helps. Basically a war footing. After that playing with train sets is going to seem a bit irrelevant.

not_on_fire

Starting to wonder if Harry and Megan saw this coming, and chose Vancouver Island as their Coronavirus-free zone...

not_on_fire

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

not_on_fire

FTSE down 9% on open

IanB2

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Philip_Thompson

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes and no. In one sense whatever he says is barely relevant now so just announce your coronavirus economic measures and anything else you urgently want to do then hold everything else back for the Autumn budget.

not_on_fire

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, large contingency fund ready to go?

I heard there’s £350m a week going spare

nichomar

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

DavidL

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

not_on_fire

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

tlg86

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

not_on_fire

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

And if countries are free to just ignore EU rules anyway, why all the Brexiteer fuss about “Brussels diktats”?

eristdoof

I find it intersting the difference between how Covid-19 is being reported in Germany compared to the UK. It seems to me that even with the serious news outlets in the UK, the virus/disease is the story, with live news tickers and evengts like the leaking of the Italian lockdown as main stories.

In Germany, although I don't check the the German tabloids, the main sories in Deutschlandfunk is 1) the MH17 court case, 2) the assylum crisi on the Greek/Turkish border. Number 3 is the drop in oil price, which is in part related to the spread of the virus, but also because of a disagreement between Russia and Saudi. There has been one interview with a German who works in North Italy abut the current situation there. The "broadsheet" websites do have seperate sections with Virus stories, but it is not as conpicuous as in the British papers.

YBarddCwsc

not_on_fire said:

Starting to wonder if Harry and Megan saw this coming, and chose Vancouver Island as their Coronavirus-free zone...

Vancouver is across a very porous border from highly infected Seattle.

AlastairMeeks

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

It’s sobering to note that it was 1000 points higher at the end of 1999.

not_on_fire

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

Sounds ideal for a WTO Brexit in December

Foxy

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/NewsAnnabelle/status/1236916748579979267

Nigelb

YBarddCwsc said:

not_on_fire said:

Starting to wonder if Harry and Megan saw this coming, and chose Vancouver Island as their Coronavirus-free zone...

Vancouver is across a very porous border from highly infected Seattle.

....Island.

Big_G_NorthWales

not_on_fire said:

Starting to wonder if Harry and Megan saw this coming, and chose Vancouver Island as their Coronavirus-free zone...

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/8-new-cases-of-covid-19-announced-in-b-c-bringing-total-to-21-1.4841013

Philip_Thompson

not_on_fire said:

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

Sounds ideal for a WTO Brexit in December

Indeed, the rebound afterwards will be fantastic.

Scott_xP

eristdoof said:

I find it intersting the difference between how Covid-19 is being reported in Germany compared to the UK. It seems to me that even with the serious news outlets in the UK, the virus/disease is the story, with live news tickers and evengts like the leaking of the Italian lockdown as main stories.

In Germany, although I don't check the the German tabloids, the main sories in Deutschlandfunk is 1) the MH17 court case, 2) the assylum crisi on the Greek/Turkish border. Number 3 is the drop in oil price, which is in part related to the spread of the virus, but also because of a disagreement between Russia and Saudi. There has been one interview with a German who works in North Italy abut the current situation there. The "broadsheet" websites do have seperate sections with Virus stories, but it is not as conpicuous as in the British papers.

https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772455170049

not_on_fire

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

It’s sobering to note that it was 1000 points higher at the end of 1999.

A colleague and I were discussing the other day how “peak humanity” was probably the period just before 9/11. So much has gone wrong since then...

AlastairMeeks

not_on_fire said:

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

It’s sobering to note that it was 1000 points higher at the end of 1999.

A colleague and I were discussing the other day how “peak humanity” was probably the period just before 9/11. So much has gone wrong since then...

The end of history was a better time. Pity that history decided to reincarnate.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Philip_Thompson

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Foxy

not_on_fire said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, large contingency fund ready to go?

I heard there’s £350m a week going spare

The problem is likely to be people and capacity. You cannot fix an unseaworthy ship when the wind starts blowing a gale. This is our baseline pre COVID19:

https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1235123168567848960?s=19

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

An alternative view is that if ever No. 10 and No. 11 needed to be working in lockstep, this is that time.

You really want a rogue Chancellor with his own set of SPADs doing as THEY see fit right now?

TheScreamingEagles

Why is Cousin Itt on the front page of The Times?

Big_G_NorthWales

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

They are invisible and this crisis will see EU countries taking their own decisions without any thought of the union

This crisis demonstrates that individual countries will seek to keep their citizens safe in a crisis or face being thrown out of office by an angry electorate

Dura_Ace

not_on_fire said:

AlastairMeeks said:

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

It’s sobering to note that it was 1000 points higher at the end of 1999.

A colleague and I were discussing the other day how “peak humanity” was probably the period just before 9/11. So much has gone wrong since then...

The release of In the Aeroplane Over the Sea marked the apogee and it's been inexorable decline since then.

AlastairMeeks

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

not_on_fire

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

IanB2

tlg86 said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It hasn't been sub-6,000 since early 2016.

It's opened where it was expected to, at around 5,900, and is so far holding this level. Probably waiting to see what the Americans will do, when they wake up.

not_on_fire

MarqueeMark said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

An alternative view is that if ever No. 10 and No. 11 needed to be working in lockstep, this is that time.

You really want a rogue Chancellor with his own set of SPADs doing as THEY see fit right now?

Some very difficult decisions are going to have to be made. Better to have a proper debate than a committee full of yes-men.

malcolmg

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

I am £50K down just this morning been a rough few weeks.

malcolmg

FPT
IanB2 said:

» show previous quotes
Not by telling old people to f*** off and die.

No but they are quite blunt about it, having just had the experience of my wife being measured up, they were not all sugar and spice. It was a very blunt case of I am here to decide whether it is worth giving you an ICU bed, it was quite shocking to be fair.

malcolmg

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Javid was not any better, it was just a swap of donkeys

not_on_fire

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Suspending FOM Europe-wide would be completely impractical and probably just increase panic even further.

TheScreamingEagles

Today is my last day working in the office for the foreseeable future.

I hope everyone else’s employers are similarly flexible.

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Floater

malcolmg said:

FPT
IanB2 said:

» show previous quotes
Not by telling old people to f*** off and die.

No but they are quite blunt about it, having just had the experience of my wife being measured up, they were not all sugar and spice. It was a very blunt case of I am here to decide whether it is worth giving you an ICU bed, it was quite shocking to be fair.

Before this current crisis my brother and I were told that dad will no longer be going to hospital when ill anymore - they tried to put it nicely but it was effectively saying no point spending resources on him.

Bless him, he is still hanging on in there.

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

not_on_fire

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

It’s touching to see just how attached Brexiteers are to lines drawn on a map

tlg86

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

https://www.ft.com/content/967789a2-56f6-11ea-a528-dd0f971febbc

Europe keeps Schengen zone open despite coronavirus

“We need to take this situation extremely seriously — but we must not give in to panic and of course to disinformation,” Stella Kyriakides, EU health commissioner, told reporters in Brussels on Monday.

The commission stressed that border closures were a matter for member states in the 26-country Schengen area, which includes EU states and non-EU countries such as Switzerland and Norway and where there are usually no passport or other controls at national frontiers.

I wonder how long this will last?

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today is my last day working in the office for the foreseeable future.

I hope everyone else’s employers are similarly flexible.

Not everyone will have that ability - but I expect to be working that way fairly shortly

Philip_Thompson

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.

Is that it?

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today is my last day working in the office for the foreseeable future.

I hope everyone else’s employers are similarly flexible.

I dread to think what you are going to be wearing to work tomorrow.....

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

You can only deny entry to fellow EEA citizens on security grounds but not health grounds under EU free movement rules

Big_G_NorthWales

Kay Burley show on Sky at breakfast is hopeless summed up with her disappearing to the US for 4 days last week to cover their politics when very few voters here care a jot

Then this morning she announces that the FTSE has fallen by 8%, while on screen behind her Sky were showing the FTSE at 6462.55 down 3.62%

Indeed they still are

twistedfirestopper3

TheScreamingEagles said:

Today is my last day working in the office for the foreseeable future.

I hope everyone else’s employers are similarly flexible.

Not an option for me, unfortunately. We're still out and about in the community, and visiting a sheltered accommodation estate full of old people to give a fire safety talk in an hour. A few of us have sniffles, but the government haven't ordered us to retreat back to our stations and hole up with tea and biscuits yet.
This is going to get very scary, very soon isn't it?

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Javid was a "newbie" too. He hadn't delivered a Budget.

not_on_fire

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.

Is that it?

Do you think a budget thrown together in 2 weeks is going be of higher quality than one written over 3 months?

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

You can only deny entry to fellow EEA citizens on security grounds but not health grounds under EU free movement rules

Really? Try reading Article 27(1) of EU Directive 2004/38/EC.

Mysticrose

Carnage on the markets

not_on_fire

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley show on Sky at breakfast is hopeless summed up with her disappearing to the US for 4 days last week to cover their politics when very few voters here care a jot

Then this morning she announces that the FTSE has fallen by 8%, while on screen behind her Sky were showing the FTSE at 6462.55 down 3.62%

Indeed they still are

Why your continual obsession with coverage of US politics? Right now the person who has a very good chance of becoming the next president is being chosen. You really have been infected by the Brexit virus if you think reporting on that is “elitist”

JohnLilburne

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.

Nigelb

malcolmg said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

I am £50K down just this morning been a rough few weeks.

You have my sympathy, malcolm.
Though I suspect the recovery will be reasonably quick, if not quite so dramatic.

not_on_fire

Taking a train through Vauxhall in SW London now. Several towers of student flats nearing completion, likely intended for rich Chinese students. Someone is going to lose their shirt.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1236907016821637122?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236861870520352768?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236860988902776832?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236835633001312258?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236866055869431808?s=20

Big_G_NorthWales

Floater said:

malcolmg said:

FPT
IanB2 said:

» show previous quotes
Not by telling old people to f*** off and die.

No but they are quite blunt about it, having just had the experience of my wife being measured up, they were not all sugar and spice. It was a very blunt case of I am here to decide whether it is worth giving you an ICU bed, it was quite shocking to be fair.

Before this current crisis my brother and I were told that dad will no longer be going to hospital when ill anymore - they tried to put it nicely but it was effectively saying no point spending resources on him.

Bless him, he is still hanging on in there.

Towards the end of her life, my sister was told she would not be going to hospital again as she signed a DNR but when the time came the nursing home phoned for an ambulance who took her to hospital

She died in the intensive care 5 hours later

IanB2

Foxy said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

I think it dropped briefly to about 3600 - the same level as the bottom in 2003.

The end of the dotcom bubble saw a fall from about 6800 to 3600 (-47%) (at the extremes) over about two and a half years. But of course 9/11 came part way through this period so really it was a double crisis.

The financial crisis was 6600 to 3600 in just over a year. (-45%)

This time we started at 7700, and are now at 5900. (-23%)

The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.

Mysticrose

It's starting to look as if the General Election was one to lose.

Never thought I'd say so.

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.

Is that it?

Do you think a budget thrown together in 2 weeks is going be of higher quality than one written over 3 months?

He has already said he is deferring his big infrastructure announcements.

Any Budget written 3 months ago by Javid would need to have been torn up and started again - because of Covid-19.

Mysticrose

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.

I reckon we could have another 50% to go. Perhaps 70%.

geoffw

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/NewsAnnabelle/status/1236916748579979267

The Dutch are generally quite laid-back but that's quite a display of complacency in that thread. Getting the balance between panic and nonchalance is not easy, but Dutch authorities are on the wrong side imo. I wonder if that attitude applies also in Germany, given what was posted earlier about the MSM in Germany.

kamski

JohnLilburne said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.

No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it

MarqueeMark

Mysticrose said:

It's starting to look as if the General Election was one to lose.

Never thought I'd say so.

Can you imagine Corbyn's Front Bench coping with this? With Jeremy's open borders policy?

Charles

Scott_xP said:

eristdoof said:

I find it intersting the difference between how Covid-19 is being reported in Germany compared to the UK. It seems to me that even with the serious news outlets in the UK, the virus/disease is the story, with live news tickers and evengts like the leaking of the Italian lockdown as main stories.

In Germany, although I don't check the the German tabloids, the main sories in Deutschlandfunk is 1) the MH17 court case, 2) the assylum crisi on the Greek/Turkish border. Number 3 is the drop in oil price, which is in part related to the spread of the virus, but also because of a disagreement between Russia and Saudi. There has been one interview with a German who works in North Italy abut the current situation there. The "broadsheet" websites do have seperate sections with Virus stories, but it is not as conpicuous as in the British papers.

https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772455170049

This response was interesting

https://mobile.twitter.com/getaccess_hrm/status/1236777911019016192

not_on_fire

MarqueeMark said:

Mysticrose said:

It's starting to look as if the General Election was one to lose.

Never thought I'd say so.

Can you imagine Corbyn's Front Bench coping with this? With Jeremy's open borders policy?

I am surprised that Corbybistas haven’t been claiming that COVID-19 was a secret Mossad plot

algarkirk

JohnLilburne said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.

Malpensa airport Milan still having lots of departures and arrivals....

AlastairMeeks

For what it’s worth, my large German-owned client was quickest to ban holding meetings.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

You can only deny entry to fellow EEA citizens on security grounds but not health grounds under EU free movement rules

Countries can suspend free movement if there is a threat to security or public policy, for 30 days at a time, renewable. Indeed it happens daily often, as listed here. I think it reasonable to consider COVID19 a treat to both security and to public policy. The problem is more with the practicality, infrastructure and indeed the appropriateness.

https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/reintroduction-border-control_en

IanB2

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.

I reckon we could have another 50% to go. Perhaps 70%.

The other factor is the timescale. Even after the GFC it took over a year to reach market bottom. For investing, I doubt shares will represent a buy at any point during 2020. For trading/betting, there will be periods when they do, outweighed by periods when they are a sell.

We'll end the year lower, for sure, but whether that will be FTSE 5500 or FTSE 4500 is an open question.

Big_G_NorthWales

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

It was necessary if you believe in joined up government to be more than a catchphrase and how was it deeply damaging?

Um, because a newbie is in charge of the treasury at a time where the economy faces its biggest shock in 13 years?

Don't be ignorant, he's not a newbie at the Treasury, he was formerly Chief Secretary of the Treasury.

Is that it?

Do you think a budget thrown together in 2 weeks is going be of higher quality than one written over 3 months?

In view of this increasing crisis most certainly

The budget drafted 3 months ago has been overtaken by events

WhisperingOracle

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236861870520352768?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236860988902776832?s=20

21 is exactly the margin they had Clinton leading Sanders by in Michigan last time, IIRC, before he won. Either they're wrong again and Jesse Jackson's endorsement reflects a move more in the grassroots again, or it's all over for him. Were Warren to come out for him today, as his campaign is desperate for her to, that could also make a difference. It'll all be clear by late tomorrow.

Charles

malcolmg said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

I am £50K down just this morning been a rough few weeks.

Not unless you sell you aren’t

I have no idea what my portfolio is doing and don’t care to look.

Chameleon

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-economy/italy-to-hike-spending-in-massive-shock-therapy-against-coronavirus-pm-idUSKBN20W0NU?

Italy to hike spending in 'massive shock therapy' against coronavirus - PM
“Europe cannot think of confronting an extraordinary situation with ordinary measures,” Conte added in the interview.

JohnLilburne

kamski said:

JohnLilburne said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays.

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

Presumably it's Schengen that's the issue, it enables people to wander across international borders unchecked. Lombardy, Piedmont and Veneto all have international borders which presumably the Italians can do nothing about, granted their attempt to quarantine those provinces is pretty half-arsed anyway.

No - countries can suspend Schengen, and have done in the past. so a) nothing to do with FoM and b) not really the EU's fault if countries don't suspend it

Can Italy suspend Schengen to stop people leaving? Presumably they should have asked those countries with common borders to stop Italians leaving. Agree that FoM is largely irrelevant as many people will be resident in foreign countries and not going anywhere, especially back home to Italy.

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays. Well

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

You can only deny entry to fellow EEA citizens on security grounds but not health grounds under EU free movement rules

Really? Try reading Article 27(1) of EU Directive 2004/38/EC.

Well if restrictions on free movement on the grounds of public health can be made under that directive, all the more reason to impose those restrictions on free movement for the foreseeable future then.

Whether banning free movement from the whole of Northern Italy on health grounds could be included in that is debateable

IanB2

R4 saying today is the third biggest FTSE daily fall in history (if it closes at current level) - highest was after Black Monday and second highest was after the GFC. 9/11 was close.

Foxy

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.

I reckon we could have another 50% to go. Perhaps 70%.

I checked, in 2009 the FTSE was below 4000 for a short period. I might start buying back if it gets to 5000.

Mysticrose

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

It bottomed out in the GFC at about 4200 by memory, in Feb 2009. Is my memory correct?

The percentages suggest that there is further to fall. The counter-argument would be that 9/11 changed the world as did the GFC. Whether Corona changes the world in an enduring way, rather than just for a year, remains to be seen.

I reckon we could have another 50% to go. Perhaps 70%.

I checked, in 2009 the FTSE was below 4000 for a short period. I might start buying back if it gets to 5000.

Yep timing will be everything. I think we're a long way from bottoming out. We need a couple more months under our belts I reckon.

Martin_Kinsella

not_on_fire said:

Taking a train through Vauxhall in SW London now. Several towers of student flats nearing completion, likely intended for rich Chinese students. Someone is going to lose their shirt.

Property speculators in London losing their shirt. Every cloud and all that.

Big_G_NorthWales

not_on_fire said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley show on Sky at breakfast is hopeless summed up with her disappearing to the US for 4 days last week to cover their politics when very few voters here care a jot

Then this morning she announces that the FTSE has fallen by 8%, while on screen behind her Sky were showing the FTSE at 6462.55 down 3.62%

Indeed they still are

Why your continual obsession with coverage of US politics? Right now the person who has a very good chance of becoming the next president is being chosen. You really have been infected by the Brexit virus if you think reporting on that is “elitist”

No.

It is the political bubble who are interested in the US at this moment

Go down any high street you will find floods and the virus as the only source of conversation

I accept that the election itself will draw interest because most of us want to see Trump gone

And re Brexit I voted remain

nichomar

AlastairMeeks said:

For what it’s worth, my large German-owned client was quickest to ban holding meetings.

Is this impacting your retirement plans?

MarqueeMark

not_on_fire said:

MarqueeMark said:

not_on_fire said:

nichomar said:

not_on_fire said:

DavidL said:

FPT

This is surely going to be the worst context for the budget since at least 2010, arguably even worse. What do you do to avoid a perception of either panic or total irrelevance?

The OBR figures of a couple of weeks ago are for an entirely different world and have almost no relevance to what we are facing. Hell of a challenge for a pretty much unknown Chancellor with no track record to give credibility.

Yes. Pushing out Javid looks like an incredibly stupid and irresponsible move now.

How many budgets had Javid presented?

So what? It was an unnecessary and deeply damaging change

An alternative view is that if ever No. 10 and No. 11 needed to be working in lockstep, this is that time.

You really want a rogue Chancellor with his own set of SPADs doing as THEY see fit right now?

Some very difficult decisions are going to have to be made. Better to have a proper debate than a committee full of yes-men.

And better to have team players rather than somebody trying to protet their own fiefdom.

AlastairMeeks

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

R4 says the EU is thinking of suspending the stability act, allowing governments to borrow and spend above its limits.

Like the said governments are going to pay the slightest bit of attention to what they think anyway as the bodies pile up. This has not been the EU's finest hour.

What do you think the EU should have done that it has not done?

Suspended freedom of movement. Introduced QE. Made it clear to Member States, especially Italy, that as many Euros as they needed for decisive action immediately would be available, no questions, no delays. Well

Tried to set guidelines about crowds, public transport, airports etc. I appreciate many of these decisions would be made by Member States but members behind the curve are a threat to everyone. Pumped any money needed into MS health services in countries that need to tool up to deal with this. Active market intervention to sustain demand.

There are responsibilities that come from having the central bank and control of the money supply in these situations. So far I see no sign at all that they are being acknowledged, let alone dealt with.

Why would suspending freedom of movement, as defined in EU terms, make a difference? I’m afraid that answer just displays your reflex Europhobia.

Suspending freedom of movement for visitors from Northern Italy at the moment might make a difference

Reread what I wrote carefully. I appreciate that’s not your forte but please try.

You can only deny entry to fellow EEA citizens on security grounds but not health grounds under EU free movement rules

Really? Try reading Article 27(1) of EU Directive 2004/38/EC.

Well if restrictions on free movement on the grounds of public health can be made under that directive, all the more reason to impose those restrictions on free movement for the foreseeable future then

Member states can already do that.

Mysticrose

Charles said:

malcolmg said:

not_on_fire said:

FTSE down 9% on open

I am £50K down just this morning been a rough few weeks.

Not unless you sell you aren’t

That old chestnut

We may be getting to the point soon when we're looking at years before the 'paper losses' return to the black.

It's so grim.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mysticrose said:

It's starting to look as if the General Election was one to lose.

Never thought I'd say so.

This could be Boris 'Falklands' moment but the risk is that it could not