I would not go quite as far but I have to agree eadric while the mood of the country is now clearly shifting towards mild panic and stockpiling, while Italy has tonight quarantined the whole of Lombardy some on here tonight are being over complacent
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
No you are with your head firmly in the sand, the same trend is clearly coming here and those photos were all within a week
Tweeting photos of empty shelves really isn’t helping anyone. With the possible exception of hand sanitizer (which most people don’t normally use, so the demand has spiked) people buying these things are just bringing forward purchases they would have made later: I don’t expect the use of loo paper to go up that much.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
No shortage of toilet roll in my village, although sanitizers are sold out.
Has Bulgaria been really lucky or are its figures as dodgy as Turkey's?
Dinner tonight with old friends, one of whom is a NHS worker on clinical side. His message - basically stay calm, media are blowing this out of all proportion, no idea why panic is setting in, seasonal flu with a bit extra etc. Actually local hospital is far more concerned about norovirus sick bug.
In NW Europe 11 countries with a population of 216 million have had 3 fatalities from coronavirus.
Out for dinner with good if elderly friends tonight. The husband, very late 70’s, is still wanting to go on a trip with Scottish Opera to northern Italy in April and they are both planning a cruise in May. I was really not sure what to say. My wife frankly wondered if we would see them again. They were convinced that this was like other scares and saw no basis for changing their lifestyle.
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
There is only so much toilet roll that I can store in my cheeks.
For various reasons we've been in Ireland for more than a week and won't be home for another week - longer then we'd planned. I'm hoping everyone else will have stocked up with their panic-buying by the time we're home. Maybe the supermarkets will have to run some discounts on loo roll to shift stock that's then stopped moving?
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The stuff I’ve got even has instructions written on it. In English as well (unlike some delicious looking things I’ve brought back from France from time to time, only to discover that my O-level French didn’t cover all the culinary terms I needed).
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people in the West reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
There are some people whose stupidity, laziness or general uselessness means you can never underestimate them.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The first time I cooked dry pasta I followed the instructions to the letter, and then discovered that my mother never added salt to the water so I wasn't accustomed to the salty taste. I may have used an absurd quantity of salt, I don't recall. Easily remedied the second time, but there are a lot of people who don't cook, and who may not persist.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
I would not go quite as far but I have to agree eadric while the mood of the country is now clearly shifting towards mild panic and stockpiling, while Italy has tonight quarantined the whole of Lombardy some on here tonight are being over complacent
When Italy places the entire region of Lombardy - its most productive, I think? - in quarantine, then it is not time to panic, it is time to "sensibly prepare" for a major hiccup in supplies, and thereafter a drastic reduction for some weeks.
Ergo, it it rational to stockpile food, staples, essentials, etc, for 2-3 weeks.
Anyone with a family who is NOT doing this is being derelict.
Agreed and I have instructed my relatives and agreed with my partner accordingly
The level of compliancy and 'head in sand' attitude I am seeing/hearing from friends, family, guys in the pub, bloke in the local cafe etc etc, is mad.
Look at the math, as the expert whose tweet I posted this afternoon said.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
I am not Sean.
But you should be OK in your EU-fish-quota-proof silo in northwest Lincolnshire, carefully hidden from fiendish Bruxellois spies
I am friends with you on facebook you idiot. Of course I know who you are. I also know you go to pieces so fast people have to dodge the shrapnel.
And its western Lincolnshire not North Eastern. North Eastern is Grimsby and Scunthorpe. Two of the most aptly named places in England.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
Firstly please don't doxx.
Secondly just because a boy once cried wolf doesn't mean there's no such thing as wolves.
The level of compliancy and 'head in sand' attitude I am seeing/hearing from friends, family, guys in the pub, bloke in the local cafe etc etc, is mad.
Look at the math, as the expert whose tweet I posted this afternoon said.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
I am not Sean.
But you should be OK in your EU-fish-quota-proof silo in northwest Lincolnshire, carefully hidden from fiendish Bruxellois spies
The message applies no matter who you are. You seem to be under the impression that if someone doesn't flamboyantly display their corona concern alongside some juvenille insults then surely they are just a silly ostrich with their head in the sand about the whole thing. It might just be possible that some people are, like the country as a whole, increasing their awareness, preparation and raising their level of concern, without sputtering random expletives about the place. If the reaction has been and still is not proportionate to the threat there are ways to make that point very strongly.
It's not funny, and no you will not care I don't think it funny nor are you obliged to care, but if it is not your intention to be a funny parody of someone in a panic, perhaps you need to adjust your strategy as the wisdom you seek to impart on us mere mortals is being severely let down by the means by which you deliver it.
The level of compliancy and 'head in sand' attitude I am seeing/hearing from friends, family, guys in the pub, bloke in the local cafe etc etc, is mad.
Look at the math, as the expert whose tweet I posted this afternoon said.
LOOK AT THE MATH.
LOOK AT THE MATHS! FFS!
I know. It was a semi-joke. The original maths tweet was from an American. Who obviously used 'math'.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
Firstly please don't doxx.
Secondly just because a boy once cried wolf doesn't mean there's no such thing as wolves.
The wolves are running all over the compound and they are hungry as hell.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
China 3,000 since December, in a population of 1.5 billion.
Out for dinner with good if elderly friends tonight. The husband, very late 70’s, is still wanting to go on a trip with Scottish Opera to northern Italy in April and they are both planning a cruise in May. I was really not sure what to say. My wife frankly wondered if we would see them again. They were convinced that this was like other scares and saw no basis for changing their lifestyle.
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
It really is madness. Try and persuade them. This is almost certainly not the dress rehearsal. This is it.
They may find travel insurance rates have rocketed
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The first time I cooked dry pasta I followed the instructions to the letter, and then discovered that my mother never added salt to the water so I wasn't accustomed to the salty taste. I may have used an absurd quantity of salt, I don't recall. Easily remedied the second time, but there are a lot of people who don't cook, and who may not persist.
Actually, Italian chefs have all told me that pasta water should be so salty it should taste like seawater.
Out for dinner with good if elderly friends tonight. The husband, very late 70’s, is still wanting to go on a trip with Scottish Opera to northern Italy in April and they are both planning a cruise in May. I was really not sure what to say. My wife frankly wondered if we would see them again. They were convinced that this was like other scares and saw no basis for changing their lifestyle.
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
It really is madness. Try and persuade them. This is almost certainly not the dress rehearsal. This is it.
This situation is serious and we should deal with it seriously, but this virus is not "the one" - it's at least two mutations away from that in virulence and lethality.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
Firstly please don't doxx.
Secondly just because a boy once cried wolf doesn't mean there's no such thing as wolves.
Doxx. That's a new one to me - Never heard of that.
Of course this could be problematic but Seadric or whatever he calls himself this week is just doing his normal attention seeking idiocy - normally once he has had a drink or seven.
He is no different to those idiots buying up half a forest's worth of Andrex.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
Out for dinner with good if elderly friends tonight. The husband, very late 70’s, is still wanting to go on a trip with Scottish Opera to northern Italy in April and they are both planning a cruise in May. I was really not sure what to say. My wife frankly wondered if we would see them again. They were convinced that this was like other scares and saw no basis for changing their lifestyle.
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
It really is madness. Try and persuade them. This is almost certainly not the dress rehearsal. This is it.
I was quite understated. I said I thought tens of thousands would die in the UK. Less than the government’s central case. They just don’t believe it. I think that the Italian trip is going to be cancelled for them. Surely there is no way anyone would be stupid enough to take a group of elderly people no doubt with underlying health problems to Italy in the next few months.
What is truly remarkable is that their granddaughter works as a nurse and their son in law as a doctor. How can they not know?
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
I am not Sean.
But you should be OK in your EU-fish-quota-proof silo in northwest Lincolnshire, carefully hidden from fiendish Bruxellois spies
I am friends with you on facebook you idiot. Of course I know who you are. I also know you go to pieces so fast people have to dodge the shrapnel.
And its western Lincolnshire not North Eastern. North Eastern is Grimsby and Scunthorpe. Two of the most aptly named places in England.
"Panic-buyers like Sean steal from the rest of us."
Discuss...
Firstly please don't doxx.
Secondly people who were doing their hamster-buying weeks ago did the most helpful thing possible. They've got their stuff, and they've sent a signal to the manufacturers to produce more early, it's been replaced, and they won't need to buy it again.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
Maths.
Maths is a science. Some of the maths is taken from many variables and assumptions
I have no idea of the end game but 100,000 UK deaths will produce shear panic and is not helpful
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Our Tesco’s was out of large eggs today. Plenty of medium sized ones. Didn’t buy them. Got everything else on my list.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The first time I cooked dry pasta I followed the instructions to the letter, and then discovered that my mother never added salt to the water so I wasn't accustomed to the salty taste. I may have used an absurd quantity of salt, I don't recall. Easily remedied the second time, but there are a lot of people who don't cook, and who may not persist.
A fair point. I still don't add salt when I cook pasta.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
There is only so much toilet roll that I can store in my cheeks.
For various reasons we've been in Ireland for more than a week and won't be home for another week - longer then we'd planned. I'm hoping everyone else will have stocked up with their panic-buying by the time we're home. Maybe the supermarkets will have to run some discounts on loo roll to shift stock that's then stopped moving?
Timing is key. You are probably ok. By end of next weekend everyone of the Bed Wetters* will have obtained so much tissue paper that they be forced to vacate their homes and sleep in their own gardens.
* those who think @eadric is wrong but stock up just in case.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
During the fires, everyone was forced to leave their houses in the hills. Into their cars, people jumped, grabbing whatever possessions they felt they could not live without.
And without any planning or prompting, hundreds of people headed for the car park of Vicente Foods.
Our friends Greg and Diana (with hampster and dog). Parked there and got out there car. A somewhat elderly gentleman got out of the car next to them to stretch his legs and look up and the smoldering hillside, It was Harrison Ford.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
Listen Sean. You have lost your head over every fucking thing that has happened in the news over the past 5 years at least. You are the epitome of the boy who cried wolf. This is why no one takes you seriously any more, no matter how many times you change your name.
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
Secondly just because a boy once cried wolf doesn't mean there's no such thing as wolves.
Well of course the alternative moral of that story is that people should still react as though there is a wolf even if someone falsely or mistakenly cried wolf on previous occasions, but that doesn't mean people cannot, after a time, start to make an assessment of whether an action is trying to awaken the docile, complacent masses, or seeking attention. Or both.
A pleasant night to all, if indeed Mr Eadric thinks people should be allowed to sleep pleasantly and smile and laugh whilst we are under the present threat. Permission should no doubt be sought for levity in trying times.
By my back-of-fag packet calculations there will be 13 million UK citizens with the virus by Easter weekend.
I still find it hard to believe it will be a tenth of that. The exponential rate will slow down as behaviours change. But a tenth of that will be putting intolerable pressure on the NHS with many consequential deaths.
Beyond that I don't think there is much a sensible citizen can do.
Pray?
I hope every PB-er has the same and is mentally adjusted. There is no way this is gonna be anything other than SHIT for quite a while.
And if a sudden cessation makes me look an absolute twat then I am happy to come on here and be roundly abused. Fair's fair.
The weird thing is I hope I am utterly, utterly wrong, and embarrassingly so. Then we can go back to arguing fish policies and GDRP.
Why would we roundly abuse you
You have an extreme armageddon view and you lose a lot of credibility in your language, hectoring, and frankly at times nonsense but that is a condition seen in others on PB
You are entitled to your view but others are available
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
Lentils is the first thing people should go for if they're stockpiling, surely?
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The first time I cooked dry pasta I followed the instructions to the letter, and then discovered that my mother never added salt to the water so I wasn't accustomed to the salty taste. I may have used an absurd quantity of salt, I don't recall. Easily remedied the second time, but there are a lot of people who don't cook, and who may not persist.
A fair point. I still don't add salt when I cook pasta.
I add a bit of salt and a spoon of olive oil when I cook pasta.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
During the fires, everyone was forced to leave their houses in the hills. Into their cars, people jumped, grabbing whatever possessions they felt they could not live without.
And without any planning or prompting, hundreds of people headed for the car park of Vicente Foods.
Our friends Greg and Diana (with hampster and dog). Parked there and got out there car. A somewhat elderly gentleman got out of the car next to them to stretch his legs and look up and the smoldering hillside, It was Harrison Ford.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
There is only so much toilet roll that I can store in my cheeks.
For various reasons we've been in Ireland for more than a week and won't be home for another week - longer then we'd planned. I'm hoping everyone else will have stocked up with their panic-buying by the time we're home. Maybe the supermarkets will have to run some discounts on loo roll to shift stock that's then stopped moving?
Timing is key. You are probably ok. By end of next weekend everyone of the Bed Wetters* will have obtained so much tissue paper that they be forced to vacate their homes and sleep in their own gardens.
* those who think @eadric is wrong but stock up just in case.
The bed wetters should be buying washing powder instead of bog roll.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
In a week everyone will have bought enough loo paper to last them ‘till next year. Twitter will then decide that something else is being panic bought, and some shops will temporarily run short of that.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
Lentils is the first thing people should go for if they're stockpiling, surely?
I've gone for tinned tomato and kidney beans and porridge.
By my back-of-fag packet calculations there will be 13 million UK citizens with the virus by Easter weekend.
I still find it hard to believe it will be a tenth of that. The exponential rate will slow down as behaviours change. But a tenth of that will be putting intolerable pressure on the NHS with many consequential deaths.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
Lentils is the first thing people should go for if they're stockpiling, surely?
I've gone for tinned tomato and kidney beans and porridge.
You're right, I think. When I was a child we lived in a middle of nowhere place and we would get cut off most winters, and we DID have chest freezers with eg half a deer in, or some kind of meat, but the main thing was jars of lentils everywhere, tomatoes, rice, that kind of stuff. From my hazy memories you've got it right, for what it's worth.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
During the fires, everyone was forced to leave their houses in the hills. Into their cars, people jumped, grabbing whatever possessions they felt they could not live without.
And without any planning or prompting, hundreds of people headed for the car park of Vicente Foods.
Our friends Greg and Diana (with hampster and dog). Parked there and got out there car. A somewhat elderly gentleman got out of the car next to them to stretch his legs and look up and the smoldering hillside, It was Harrison Ford.
Beyond that I don't think there is much a sensible citizen can do.
Pray?
I hope every PB-er has the same and is mentally adjusted. There is no way this is gonna be anything other than SHIT for quite a while.
And if a sudden cessation makes me look an absolute twat then I am happy to come on here and be roundly abused. Fair's fair.
The weird thing is I hope I am utterly, utterly wrong, and embarrassingly so. Then we can go back to arguing fish policies and GDRP.
My basic operating position is that it will not be as bad as the maths currently shows (and my bad dreams illuminate in wild colours), but it will be nowhere near as minor as most head-in-sand folks seem to be clinging to.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
How could someone not know how to cook dry pasta?! I feel like even if you'd never seen it before it could easily be figured out.
The first time I cooked dry pasta I followed the instructions to the letter, and then discovered that my mother never added salt to the water so I wasn't accustomed to the salty taste. I may have used an absurd quantity of salt, I don't recall. Easily remedied the second time, but there are a lot of people who don't cook, and who may not persist.
Actually, Italian chefs have all told me that pasta water should be so salty it should taste like seawater.
You'll be telling me that my mother was wrong to include broccoli in her minestrone next!
The only thing our supermarket is out of is French green lentils. That is because I bought them all and no-one else in the town buys them, so they have not been re-stocked.
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Give it a week...
Christ. There's a run on lentils??? This is the end.
Lentils is the first thing people should go for if they're stockpiling, surely?
I've gone for tinned tomato and kidney beans and porridge.
You're right, I think. When I was a child we lived in a middle of nowhere place and we would get cut off most winters, and we DID have chest freezers with eg half a deer in, or some kind of meat, but the main thing was jars of lentils everywhere, tomatoes, rice, that kind of stuff. From my hazy memories you've got it right, for what it's worth.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
By my back-of-fag packet calculations there will be 13 million UK citizens with the virus by Easter weekend.
I still find it hard to believe it will be a tenth of that. The exponential rate will slow down as behaviours change. But a tenth of that will be putting intolerable pressure on the NHS with many consequential deaths.
I'm sort of with you on that, once properly bad stories start coming through from Italy, France and possibly the US behaviours will change a lot - which is exactly why we need to buy time relative to them. But the incubation period, and other nations' sheer negligence makes it really difficult to contain.
Maybe 5,000,000 infections across the UK, 250,000 deaths across the pandemic?
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
There is only so much toilet roll that I can store in my cheeks.
For various reasons we've been in Ireland for more than a week and won't be home for another week - longer then we'd planned. I'm hoping everyone else will have stocked up with their panic-buying by the time we're home. Maybe the supermarkets will have to run some discounts on loo roll to shift stock that's then stopped moving?
Timing is key. You are probably ok. By end of next weekend everyone of the Bed Wetters* will have obtained so much tissue paper that they be forced to vacate their homes and sleep in their own gardens.
* those who think @eadric is wrong but stock up just in case.
The bed wetters should be buying washing powder instead of bog roll.
Out for dinner with good if elderly friends tonight. The husband, very late 70’s, is still wanting to go on a trip with Scottish Opera to northern Italy in April and they are both planning a cruise in May. I was really not sure what to say. My wife frankly wondered if we would see them again. They were convinced that this was like other scares and saw no basis for changing their lifestyle.
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
I would avoid the 4 countries where 98% of fatalities have taken place: China, Iran, Italy and South Korea.
Beyond that I don't think there is much a sensible citizen can do.
Pray?
I hope every PB-er has the same and is mentally adjusted. There is no way this is gonna be anything other than SHIT for quite a while.
And if a sudden cessation makes me look an absolute twat then I am happy to come on here and be roundly abused. Fair's fair.
The weird thing is I hope I am utterly, utterly wrong, and embarrassingly so. Then we can go back to arguing fish policies and GDRP.
My basic operating position is that it will not be as bad as the maths currently shows (and my bad dreams illuminate in wild colours), but it will be nowhere near as minor as most head-in-sand folks seem to be clinging to.
I think that's probably right. I suspect five to seven million people will end up getting the virus, as we do an increasingly good job of slowing its spread (quarantines work). And I suspect that we'll also get better at treating it.
I think we'll end up slightly undershooting the government's central estimate.
For us, it's medications for existing conditions, palliative medicines for the milder versions of COVID, nitrile gloves, tissues, dry foods, canned foods, cooking oils, cleaning and sanitizing items, animal feed/bedding/litter (horses, dogs, cats), and an upright freezer full of meat (which we normally have anyways, as hunters on our land give us venison and elk - the latter not from our property - in large quantities, and we tend to buy pork and beef in half animal minimums direct from local heritage breed farmers). No need for water, we have our own well. Other than that, tons of coffee for me, and a vineyard worth of wine in the cellar for the wife. I think we're set. But I am sure we'll find out that we've forgotten something if it truly gets that bad.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Yeah, overall 100,000 would be bad, but far from catastrophic, and substantially lower than most other western countries.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
Should we not be worried as a country that restrictions are now needed on the amount of Calpol that parents can buy in supermarkets?
Certainly restrictions on pasta, 3 packs only now per customer in Epping Tescos after the shelves almost bare
I haven't seen any panic buying in the Midlands so far. I wonder why people in Essex are panicking more than elsewhere.
I have a friend in Hereford in the Midlands who has just posted images of empty shelves at the local supermarket on Facebook tonight so it is not just Essex
Empty shelves of what ?
I suspect that many of the people who want to buy dry pasta don't even know how to cook it.
Pasta, toilet rolls, rice, increasingly tinned food etc.
You only need to boil pasta it is not haute cuisine
That's still beyond the abilities of many people.
And you're not doing the image of Epping much good by posting this.
The image of Epping at the moment is the least of our concerns and as I posted below this is now occurring across the country
Not anywhere I've been to or many other PBers.
Still if you want to boast about living in idiotville that's your choice.
Have you been out this evening? Where do you live? I challenge you to go to your local supermarket tonight or tomorrow night and find the toilet roll and pasta shelves are not near empty
I've been today and they weren't.
If I were you I'd get off PB now and go to bed - you don't want to miss the 10am opening to get more for your bog roll and dry pasta stockpile.
There is only so much toilet roll that I can store in my cheeks.
For various reasons we've been in Ireland for more than a week and won't be home for another week - longer then we'd planned. I'm hoping everyone else will have stocked up with their panic-buying by the time we're home. Maybe the supermarkets will have to run some discounts on loo roll to shift stock that's then stopped moving?
Timing is key. You are probably ok. By end of next weekend everyone of the Bed Wetters* will have obtained so much tissue paper that they be forced to vacate their homes and sleep in their own gardens.
* those who think @eadric is wrong but stock up just in case.
The bed wetters should be buying washing powder instead of bog roll.
LOL. I did buy 2 month's worth of laundry pods ...
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Yeah, overall 100,000 would be bad, but far from catastrophic, and substantially lower than most other western countries.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
5% of the UK population is 3 million. You think that is not unlikely?
Beyond that I don't think there is much a sensible citizen can do.
Pray?
I hope every PB-er has the same and is mentally adjusted. There is no way this is gonna be anything other than SHIT for quite a while.
And if a sudden cessation makes me look an absolute twat then I am happy to come on here and be roundly abused. Fair's fair.
The weird thing is I hope I am utterly, utterly wrong, and embarrassingly so. Then we can go back to arguing fish policies and GDRP.
My basic operating position is that it will not be as bad as the maths currently shows (and my bad dreams illuminate in wild colours), but it will be nowhere near as minor as most head-in-sand folks seem to be clinging to.
I think that's probably right. I suspect five to seven million people will end up getting the virus, as we do an increasingly good job of slowing its spread (quarantines work). And I suspect that we'll also get better at treating it.
I think we'll end up slightly undershooting the government's central estimate.
That is my baseline case too - slightly undershooting the government's central estimate. But I think also the upside (i.e. a lot fewer than forecast, say 20-50k deaths for the UK) is probably a fatter tail than most commentators are implying.
There's so many stories of US doctors having patients with all the flu symptoms showing up negative on flu tests, or having the DoH veto tests. There's little other conclusion to make apart from it being a few weeks off being endemic over there.
Did you see the graph showing the massive spike in patients presenting with 'flu like symptoms' in Ohio that I posted earlier (the spike was well under way in mid-late Feb, before widespread media coverage)? The same Ohio that hasn't run a single test. We need to ban travel from the US.
On Tuesday, Joe Biden won the City of Boston vote — by 56 votes, bringing to mind Julia Mejia’s one-vote win in last November’s at-Large City Council race. This time the close division between Boston voters extended further : Liz Warren finished third, but within 3,500 votes of second place. The map above shows the distribution of wins among the City’s 255 precincts. It’s an unusual map to say the ;least. Gone from it is the stark gap between “new Boston” voters and the “traditional vote.” In this map we see strips of wins extending across the city as well as wins, for Biden in particular, among all kinds of voters who recently haven’t agreed on much of anything."
I feel confident that if it were China that's was refusing to test patients for Coronavirus that senior ministers would be expressing their concern at China's handling of the situation and the impact that it could have on the rest of the world. Is anything being said about the US? Are we trying to encourage them to sort themselves out?
Trump says that if you test for a hoax then science (which is a load of crap obviously) will find the hoax is true and therefore Pence has told him not to do it or Fox news will implode. Or something.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Yeah, overall 100,000 would be bad, but far from catastrophic, and substantially lower than most other western countries.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
5% of the UK population is 3 million. You think that is not unlikely?
I think it is unlikely.
Firstly, that basically requires everyone to get COVID-19. And some people, for some reason, will not be particularly susceptible. Plus, as we get further and further along, there are fewer people for the virus to infect, and (eventually) fewer and fewer potential carriers. My guesstimate is that 15% or so of the UK will end up getting it. I doubt it'll be more than 60%.
Secondly, while either of these scenarios would overload health systems (to a greater or lesser extent), we are going to get better at working out how to moderate its severity.
So, I'm going for 70-100,00 excess deaths from Coronavirus in the UK. I think the US number, by contrast, could be a lot worse.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Yeah, overall 100,000 would be bad, but far from catastrophic, and substantially lower than most other western countries.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
5% of the UK population is 3 million. You think that is not unlikely?
It's unlikely, but far from impossible (which it is being portrayed as). The virus gives such a massive proportion of patients critical symptoms that they'd be unlikely to survive without ICU care. Our population is old, fat, and unhealthy. I also fear for law and order in London, 2011 didn't exactly reinforce my faith in that regard.
It is very much my worst case, and relies on most things going wrong, but there's a credible case to be made that Wuhan's 5% mortality isn't a ceiling given the massive amounts of resources they drafted in, which other countries won't be able to do, and the ridiculously young demographics Wuhan enjoys compared to the UK.
I feel confident that if it were China that's was refusing to test patients for Coronavirus that senior ministers would be expressing their concern at China's handling of the situation and the impact that it could have on the rest of the world. Is anything being said about the US? Are we trying to encourage them to sort themselves out?
If an African country was acting as the USA was (including the coronavirus prayer meetings) they'd be decried as a ridiculous banana republic that desperately needed Western intervention.
I have to say, the quarantine of 15.5 million people reinforces just how serious this could get.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
In the UK ?
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
That's what the Times is saying as their central estimate. That's the misery of exponential growth. Italy's deaths have increased tenfold over the past week for example.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
If there were 100,000 deaths, mostly among the elderly, it would be terrible. But it also wouldn't be a disaster.
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Yeah, overall 100,000 would be bad, but far from catastrophic, and substantially lower than most other western countries.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
5% of the UK population is 3 million. You think that is not unlikely?
It's unlikely, but far from impossible (which it is being portrayed as). The virus gives such a massive proportion of patients critical symptoms that they'd be unlikely to survive without ICU care. Our population is old, fat, and unhealthy. I also fear for law and order in London, 2011 didn't exactly reinforce my faith in that regard.
It is very much my worst case, and relies on most things going wrong, but there's a credible case to be made that Wuhan's 5% mortality isn't a ceiling given the massive amounts of resources they drafted in, which other countries won't be able to do, and the ridiculously young demographics Wuhan enjoys compared to the UK.
Wuhan isn't *that* young compared to the UK. The median age (for Hubei) is 37, against 40 in the UK.
And air quality is massively worse in Wuhan, and rates of smoking much higher.
Comments
No need whatsover
Is this madness or is this sanguine? I think the former but I am not 100% sure.
Hopefully we'll get some opinion polls soon to distract him.
As for the rest of California
https://twitter.com/kost1035fm/status/1236176516452691968?s=20
https://twitter.com/rooshv/status/1234356401746698240?s=20
https://twitter.com/FOX40/status/1234970681072214016?s=20
Fucking grow up and grow a pair.
I wonder how many people went home and immediately tucked in to their stockpiles though.
That being said the Govt's central estimate is apparently 100,000 deaths. I think that's low, possibly by a lot, but even so should jolt people awake a bit.
100,000 deaths when we have had 2 so far
In fact we could potentially face Dem VP vs Pence?
The level of compliancy and 'head in sand' attitude I am seeing/hearing from friends, family, guys in the pub, bloke in the local cafe etc etc, is mad.
Look at the math, as the expert whose tweet I posted this afternoon said.
LOOK AT THE MATH.
And its western Lincolnshire not North Eastern. North Eastern is Grimsby and Scunthorpe. Two of the most aptly named places in England.
Secondly just because a boy once cried wolf doesn't mean there's no such thing as wolves.
It's not funny, and no you will not care I don't think it funny nor are you obliged to care, but if it is not your intention to be a funny parody of someone in a panic, perhaps you need to adjust your strategy as the wisdom you seek to impart on us mere mortals is being severely let down by the means by which you deliver it.
Discuss...
Actually, Italian chefs have all told me that pasta water should be so salty it should taste like seawater.
Of course this could be problematic but Seadric or whatever he calls himself this week is just doing his normal attention seeking idiocy - normally once he has had a drink or seven.
He is no different to those idiots buying up half a forest's worth of Andrex.
What is truly remarkable is that their granddaughter works as a nurse and their son in law as a doctor. How can they not know?
Everything else, including toilet paper, is in plentiful supply.
Secondly people who were doing their hamster-buying weeks ago did the most helpful thing possible. They've got their stuff, and they've sent a signal to the manufacturers to produce more early, it's been replaced, and they won't need to buy it again.
I have no idea of the end game but 100,000 UK deaths will produce shear panic and is not helpful
* those who think @eadric is wrong but stock up just in case.
It doesn't take long for the slow ramp to turn into a rocket.
Although 100,000 isn't actually *that* bad. It's about 1/5th of the average year's deaths, and will largely be concentrated in the summer months were many fewer deaths occur. That being said I think that as a central estimate it's about 1/5th of what it should be - but they're the experts.
During the fires, everyone was forced to leave their houses in the hills. Into their cars, people jumped, grabbing whatever possessions they felt they could not live without.
And without any planning or prompting, hundreds of people headed for the car park of Vicente Foods.
Our friends Greg and Diana (with hampster and dog). Parked there and got out there car. A somewhat elderly gentleman got out of the car next to them to stretch his legs and look up and the smoldering hillside, It was Harrison Ford.
PS I wonder if Mike could post something about this? It shouldn't need to be said but apparently it does.
A pleasant night to all, if indeed Mr Eadric thinks people should be allowed to sleep pleasantly and smile and laugh whilst we are under the present threat. Permission should no doubt be sought for levity in trying times.
You have an extreme armageddon view and you lose a lot of credibility in your language, hectoring, and frankly at times nonsense but that is a condition seen in others on PB
You are entitled to your view but others are available
Got any decent tips for cooking toilet paper?
Your disposable gloves might not be effective against all possibilities.
https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit
It would mean about four times as many people died of the Coronavirus than a particularly bad flu season. And, of course, many of those people would have had serious underlying medical conditions, so the "excess" deaths might be an even smaller number.
The risk to society is if (say) 40 million people get it, and four million end up seriously sick, and there simply aren't the hospital beds to treat them, then the death rate for those could be 40%, not 10%. In which case we're looking at 2.5 million deaths.
Maybe 5,000,000 infections across the UK, 250,000 deaths across the pandemic?
I think we'll end up slightly undershooting the government's central estimate.
Totally agreed, that's more or less my upper bound reasonable worst case based on us not taking social distancing seriously, other countries continuing to screw about and the spreading while showing no symptoms period being quite long. 5% of the UK population dying would be a major before/after moment, and while unlikely, I don't think that it's as unlikely as we like to think.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236452586716303363?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1236454454037225472?s=20
Will we do this is Britain?
Boy, Johnson wanted to be a Churchill-type. He is about to be massively tested and weighed in the balance.
https://twitter.com/courtneycyarkin/status/1236290023533805568
There's so many stories of US doctors having patients with all the flu symptoms showing up negative on flu tests, or having the DoH veto tests. There's little other conclusion to make apart from it being a few weeks off being endemic over there.
Did you see the graph showing the massive spike in patients presenting with 'flu like symptoms' in Ohio that I posted earlier (the spike was well under way in mid-late Feb, before widespread media coverage)? The same Ohio that hasn't run a single test. We need to ban travel from the US.
On Tuesday, Joe Biden won the City of Boston vote — by 56 votes, bringing to mind Julia Mejia’s one-vote win in last November’s at-Large City Council race. This time the close division between Boston voters extended further : Liz Warren finished third, but within 3,500 votes of second place. The map above shows the distribution of wins among the City’s 255 precincts. It’s an unusual map to say the ;least. Gone from it is the stark gap between “new Boston” voters and the “traditional vote.” In this map we see strips of wins extending across the city as well as wins, for Biden in particular, among all kinds of voters who recently haven’t agreed on much of anything."
https://hereandsphere.com/2020/03/07/analyzing-the-boston-primary-vote/
I pray every moment for Mike Pence.
Firstly, that basically requires everyone to get COVID-19. And some people, for some reason, will not be particularly susceptible. Plus, as we get further and further along, there are fewer people for the virus to infect, and (eventually) fewer and fewer potential carriers. My guesstimate is that 15% or so of the UK will end up getting it. I doubt it'll be more than 60%.
Secondly, while either of these scenarios would overload health systems (to a greater or lesser extent), we are going to get better at working out how to moderate its severity.
So, I'm going for 70-100,00 excess deaths from Coronavirus in the UK. I think the US number, by contrast, could be a lot worse.
But I think Biden will win the US election in the next few days.
I've just topped up.
It is very much my worst case, and relies on most things going wrong, but there's a credible case to be made that Wuhan's 5% mortality isn't a ceiling given the massive amounts of resources they drafted in, which other countries won't be able to do, and the ridiculously young demographics Wuhan enjoys compared to the UK.
And air quality is massively worse in Wuhan, and rates of smoking much higher.