We’ve started getting US companies pulling out of events we’re organising in the US because of Covid-19 worries. Facebook, for example, has banned all non-essential travel. We’ll survive, but this is going to hurt a lot of smaller businesses, hotels, restaurants, etc.
I read a virologist today who says that everyone has to have a OMG moment with a problem like this. That is, when a virus gets menacing enough, the government has to go from Keep Calm and Carry On to scaring the living shits out of us, so that we will be prepared to accept the huge and unpleasant changes, mass quarantine etc
Although to be fair, he doesn't seem to be faring worse than any other democrats there. If he was uniquely toxic in these kinds of areas of the country, as some have suggested, that wouldn't have seemed to be the case.
I have no debts, I don't have a mortgage or rent to pay, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Save 80%!!! Either you have an absolutely massive salary or someone is subsidising you heavily..... living with family and making no contribution for example.
I've been very fortunate in life, I was raised by a mother who views debt as the eighth deadliest sin, I was the last cohort to have my university fees paid for.
My parents/grandparents helped me buy a house in central London in 2000 which I sold for a lot more in 2007 then moved back oop North.
I moved back in with my parents in 2013 and they don't subsidise me and my kids, although they'd like to, they can afford to, but I refuse to let them.
OK; I believe you, but as you say you have been very fortunate. I assume, of course, that you contribute to your parents general and household expenses. From other posts of yours I cannot imagine that you would not!
I read a virologist today who says that everyone has to have a OMG moment with a problem like this. That is, when a virus gets menacing enough, the government has to go from Keep Calm and Carry On to scaring the living shits out of us, so that we will be prepared to accept the huge and unpleasant changes, mass quarantine etc
Maybe this will be HMG's OMG on the rest of us
Time to get more bottled water.
Sean is renowned for spending his evenings knocking back bottled water.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
Wall Street is down 950 and getting shy about closing 1000 points down. Often in the last hour or two the Dow reverses its daily trend, but there is still time to re-establish a downtrend before we reach that point.
Meanwhile, breaking, Weinstein is found mostly guilty in New York.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
I have no debts, I don't have a mortgage or rent to pay, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Save 80%!!! Either you have an absolutely massive salary or someone is subsidising you heavily..... living with family and making no contribution for example.
I've been very fortunate in life, I was raised by a mother who views debt as the eighth deadliest sin, I was the last cohort to have my university fees paid for.
My parents/grandparents helped me buy a house in central London in 2000 which I sold for a lot more in 2007 then moved back oop North.
I moved back in with my parents in 2013 and they don't subsidise me and my kids, although they'd like to, they can afford to, but I refuse to let them.
OK; I believe you, but as you say you have been very fortunate. I assume, of course, that you contribute to your parents general and household expenses. From other posts of yours I cannot imagine that you would not!
When I first moved back in I paid £800 a month to my parents for food/bills etc, but then I found out they were putting that money into a savings account for their grandkids, in their heads they saw the £800 as taking money out of the mouths of their son and grandkids.
So I've got it all set up now that the majority of the bills/expenses come out of my accounts, plus I subsidise them, provide them with new mobiles every year, plus I overemphasise the deals I get on so many things.
I'm glad to say my parents are properly enjoying my father's retirement.
Sadly I can't see that until or unless Brexit implodes, and he returns to the Tory party. It's a great shame as he's a very talented and open-minded politician, like Nandy, and for that reason potentially a great prime minister, like her potentially after Starmer.
I read a virologist today who says that everyone has to have a OMG moment with a problem like this. That is, when a virus gets menacing enough, the government has to go from Keep Calm and Carry On to scaring the living shits out of us, so that we will be prepared to accept the huge and unpleasant changes, mass quarantine etc
Maybe this will be HMG's OMG on the rest of us
Time to get more bottled water.
and pineapple pizza.
I'll start a social media rumour that says pineapples on pizza enhances the chances of catching the Coronavirus.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
What are the odds that by the end of his term our Bozo will have flirted with both a wealth tax and a universal basic income?
We already effectively have a quasi universal basic income anyway. Done right I 100% back a universal basic income - the question is what do you mean by it?
I was reading Utopia for Realists and it struck me that it was right down little Dom’s street.
Not sure about Dom but personally I've long advocated for a form of universal basic income, or as I've heard it called previously a negative income tax, as advocated by Milton Friedman who was hardly a far left socialist.
We already are close to having one already, Universal Credit is a step in the right direction. But I would like to see a brave government go further and make it a true universal system: Universal Credit merged 6 benefits into one which was a good first step but we need to go much further in my eyes: Merge Universal Credit, Income Tax and National Insurance into one system.
Second thing I would do is to have a flat[ish] rate on the unified negative income tax. If you merge benefits and taxes into one, which they quintessentially are, then currently the most taxed in our society are the poorest who can face effective income tax rates of about 80%.
I wonder how a system like that could draw support from across the spectrum?
Well, the Dow is down more than 1000 and I am taking some profits in anticipation of a pre-close bounce. Then selling again as I remain convinced this is going to be a significant week of market declines.
And the latest theory on the killer virus is that it jumped from bat to Pangolin and from Pangolin to man.
Actually, the latest theory is that it went straight from bat to man. Because there is a lab in Wuhan which tests coronaviruses in bats, and it is 200m from where the first noticeable cluster appeared (Wuhan seafood market - which does not sell bats).
It is just stretching credulity too far to think a lab testing viruses in bats, has nothing to do with a new virus which comes from bats, appearing next door to the lab.
It wasn't a bioweapon tho, or any of that mad bollocks. The thinking is thIs: workers in these labs are known for selling their experimental animals in food markets, to get extra cash. Then someone went and sold a dodgy bat.
The fit for reported coronavirus cases outside of (mainland) China over the past 9 days is very close to cubic. (Correlation R^2 = 0.99). Figures from Worldometers. Call 15 February day 1 and define day number as x. Number of cases y = 17.547x^2 – 18.382x + 743.38, with correlation R^2 = 0.9862. If this fit were to continue, we would get 1 March 4941 1 April 38641 1 May 103364 1 Jun 203426 And the millionth case outside of China would be reported on 11 October. So c'mon, it's not as bad as all that!
Surely you should be trying to fit to a Gaussian? I know it is early days, but cubics rise forever, Gaussians come down again...
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
That is an asinine statement by Mike Bloomberg. Is he pitching for the Miami Cuban vote?
No he’s reminding his party that someone as left wing as Bernie is going to be toast against Trump. He’s right but it’s not likely to help himself much.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Arguing against myself I would blame the weather
Of course, runs of bad weather do have a downward effect just like hot summers have a positive effect.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
Wolves' 2020 so far 1st 6 games - without Willy Boly - 8 goals conceded Last 4 games - with Willy Boly - 0 goals conceded
There's an even better stat in rugby.
London Irish with Hepetema and Rona as starting centres: 4 PPG (24 points over 6 games)
London Irish with any other centre combination: 0.6 PPG (3 points over 5 games)
What makes it even more interesting is that those 5 games are spread out in 3 different groups of games, and one of the two mentioned above started in the centres in all 5 games.
Why didn't you purchase this last year when Smyths had it for around £500 or so..
I have a policy of only buying a lego set once I've my kids have finished a set.
Looks at the various sets I've got in unopened boxes - why would you do that...
I learnt that you need to purchase them when the Maersk cargo container vessel set was discontinued when I wasn't paying attention (granted its a niche set but my Dad's a Naval Architect)..
I don't have the time to fully satisfy my Lego love.
I'd end up stop buying Lego if I knew there were several hundred pounds worth of unopened Lego sets.
Should I point out that they are often a better investment than stocks and shares - that set retailed at £109.99 and now sells for over £230
The fit for reported coronavirus cases outside of (mainland) China over the past 9 days is very close to cubic. (Correlation R^2 = 0.99). Figures from Worldometers. Call 15 February day 1 and define day number as x. Number of cases y = 17.547x^2 – 18.382x + 743.38, with correlation R^2 = 0.9862. If this fit were to continue, we would get 1 March 4941 1 April 38641 1 May 103364 1 Jun 203426 And the millionth case outside of China would be reported on 11 October. So c'mon, it's not as bad as all that!
Surely you should be trying to fit to a Gaussian? I know it is early days, but cubics rise forever, Gaussians come down again...
I've no idea what the usual curve is for an epidemic, but whatever happens the daily increase should come down again eventually :-) Here are the numbers if you want to try:
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Not this popular Italian that has added innovative pizza toppings* that go beyond pineapple?
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Arguing against myself I would blame the weather
Of course, runs of bad weather do have a downward effect just like hot summers have a positive effect.
The weather is really bad. It’s been snowing/raining all day/month/year. Fed up with it. But the Royal Mile is never this quiet.
Are you implicitly suggesting that a pathway back to membership of the EU is a positive?
No, I’m pointing out that the opinion poll isn’t testing a neutral question on a prospective ballot paper so can’t be taken as indicative of the result.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Not this popular Italian that has added innovative pizza toppings* that go beyond pineapple?
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
n.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
Those were a handful of morons. Not representative. You get some weird calls to 999 every day.
It’s pluses and negatives. We might be emotionally stunted, intensely reserved, and prefer animals to humans , but the flip side of that is that we’re pretty stoic when the chips are down.
Unless you’re a bestselling author of fiction of course.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
No, the Britain that laughed at a moron who did that.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
n.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
Those were a handful of morons. Not representative. You get some weird calls to 999 every day. prefer animals to humans
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Arguing against myself I would blame the weather
Of course, runs of bad weather do have a downward effect just like hot summers have a positive effect.
The weather is really bad. It’s been snowing/raining all day/month/year. Fed up with it. But the Royal Mile is never this quiet.
It is very seasonally affected though isn't it? Around this time last year we went to the Royal Mile, then again in August.
You could barely move in August and the restaurants were all pretty full but this time last year (with better weather) it was quite quiet and we went to a restaurant where there was only one other couple in the restaurant at that time.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
I refuse to apologise for my actions there, a man gets hungry and he gets desperate.
Arguing against myself I have popped out to a popular Italian on the Royal Mile. My attendance has doubled the number of customers. It’s an absolutely foul night, it’s February and it’s quite early but this is a bit weird.
Arguing against myself I would blame the weather
Of course, runs of bad weather do have a downward effect just like hot summers have a positive effect.
The weather is really bad. It’s been snowing/raining all day/month/year. Fed up with it. But the Royal Mile is never this quiet.
It is very seasonally affected though isn't it? Around this time last year we went to the Royal Mile, then again in August.
You could barely move in August and the restaurants were all pretty full but this time last year (with better weather) it was quite quiet and we went to a restaurant where there was only one other couple in the restaurant at that time.
It’s actually changed over the years. Edinburgh used to be unbearable during the Festival but ok otherwise. Now it’s more of an all year around tourist location. Good for the restaurant business, slightly more tiresome to work in. Even tonight I passed a lot of very wet Spanish tourists listening to how we used to treat remainers, sorry people not with the program, in the Middle Ages. They seemed to be thinking all that and the bloody rain? Jeez.
So in my experience this is unusual. Are people travelling less? Less confident about public spaces, restaurants, hotels, airports? Don’t know.
Worth noting the Betfair market for “Next President” is explicitly (under its rules) for who will next be president after the 2020 general.
Therefore, I’m not sure what happens if the actuarial materialises and Pence takes over as President before November. It’s possible it will be voided or just ignored, with the market continuing.
So two points given I had to get the tube today, a hugely unwelcome occurrence.
1. Why the fuck are some tube workers on strike; and
2. People on the whole seem to be holding up well. There was a spontaneous outbreak of singing (We'll Keep The Home Fires Burning) but other than that everyone was behaving for all the world as if they weren't aware of their imminent annihilation.
They even closed me down when I tried to explain Normalcy Bias to them when we were stuck at a red signal at High Street Ken.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
Not many firms are holding lots of life insurance liabilities on people old enough to matter, and most of those who are will have it offset against an equally large pension liability. One of the more (only?) cheerful potential effects of a pandemic would be to knock some of our final salary pension schemes back into surplus (or at least reduce some of the larger deficits).
Anyway, the current reaction in the insurance industry has been to shrug and say "is that it? This is well inside our disaster scenario planning." So far, anyway.
Feedback from several ex-customers indicates to me that the recession has started. In previous recessions, certain companies I dealt with saw a sharp downturn 3 to 6 months before the recession. They are showing the same pattern as before.
My guess is that Q1 will be about +0.4%. The budget will add the thick end of £100bn to infrastructure spending over the next few years and that should be worth about 1% a year on its own according to David Smith. I am not saying we cannot have a recession, its overdue, but I think you are being very pessimistic to suggest we are already in one.
Well, I am just reporting conversations I have had over the last week or two. Combine that with your comment about overdue recessions, the fact that China is badly affected and supplies a lot of goods to other economies and then add in the fear factor of a pandemic (whether one happens or not) and I will be amazed if we get through 2020 without a recession.
I don't dispute for a moment that we are going to suffer dislocations from China which are likely to affect a range of other businesses that rely upon them for parts etc. I heard on R5 that something like 90% of all wedding dresses in the UK are imported from China and there are real concerns already that they may not be available within a few weeks. The car industry is already suffering and even TSE might have to keep his phone for another few weeks.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
The economy is about CONFIDENCE. If people worry, they stop spending and cashflow problems hit businesses. Cashflow issues kill businesses no matter how profitable they are. Cashflow is king.
When it breaks out in Britain shops, restraints, airports, theatres, sports stadiums will empty, and rightly so. Services are not immune, though health care services will boom. I wouldn't want to be holding a lot of life insurance liability either.
I think there will be an aspect of KBO as well.
This is Britain.
The Britain that called 999 when KFC were running short of stock?
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Someone did say Coronavirus could be linked to Brexit didn’t they? We know how referendum losers like to use a balm of tenuous linkage to salve their wounds... #deathcult
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Someone did say Coronavirus could be linked to Brexit didn’t they? We know how referendum losers like to use a balm of tenuous linkage to salve their wounds... #deathcult
I will joint point out that according to Mr Meeks of this parish, "Leave" is the death cult, not remain...
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
It's been mainstream to be vegetarian for a long time, vegan a bit less so, but I'd say even people who eat meat attempting to eat less of it in general to the point of wider meat substitutes being available is becoming more mainstream.
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Sadly, some people have no appreciation of being at the top of the food chain.
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Yes, it's a problem. Thankfully, most young people are still perfectly sensible.
My daughter was gobbling up the black pudding and roast chicken I cooked at the weekend.
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Sadly, some people have no appreciation of being at the top of the food chain.
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Sadly, some people have no appreciation of being at the top of the food chain.
There would have been no Eadricvirus if the Chinese were vegan.
Pangolins: bake them in clay like a hedgehog, perhaps?
I was in Guangzhou in 1990. It was a transition time, still lots of Mao suits and bicycles.
It was quite difficult for a low budget tourist, outside the hotels as many restaurants refused us. We did ok with Dim Sum as we could point to order, but tougher later in the day.
In the restraunt district there were often cages of exotic animals, and I remember pangolins as well as many reptiles. It would have been quite interesting if it wasn't for the cruelty. Often diners would taunt their caged meal with sticks. Apparently the fear hormones make the meat more tender.
The strange devotion of Chinese to their songbirds was a complete contrast. Older men would congregate with their birds in small bamboo cages, and they would hang them up in the cages to sing to each other. Quite beautiful in a way, but also the reason that you see few wild songbirds in SE Asia.
Someone did say Coronavirus could be linked to Brexit didn’t they? We know how referendum losers like to use a balm of tenuous linkage to salve their wounds... #deathcult
I will joint point out that according to Mr Meeks of this parish, "Leave" is the death cult, not remain...
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Sadly, some people have no appreciation of being at the top of the food chain.
There would have been no Eadricvirus if the Chinese were vegan.
I think the Chinese had enough of experimenting with veganism under Mao.
KFC's Vegan Burger isn't bad. It's a tad cheaper than the Burger King Rebel Whopper. But the Rebel Whopper is far tastier
Not eating partially burnt bits of chopped up animal is definitely going mainstream. I'd guess at least 30% of my students (16 - 21 y.o. usually) are vegetarian/vegan.
Sadly, some people have no appreciation of being at the top of the food chain.
There would have been no Eadricvirus if the Chinese were vegan.
I think the Chinese had enough of experimenting with veganism under Mao.
Comments
Meanwhile, breaking, Weinstein is found mostly guilty in New York.
But our economy is dominated by services and with a government committed to more spending a recession this year remains possible but an outside risk.
So I've got it all set up now that the majority of the bills/expenses come out of my accounts, plus I subsidise them, provide them with new mobiles every year, plus I overemphasise the deals I get on so many things.
I'm glad to say my parents are properly enjoying my father's retirement.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8419112/pangolins-cruelty-illegal-trade/
And the latest theory on the killer virus is that it jumped from bat to Pangolin and from Pangolin to man.
So, no, I don't think so. Masks may be made mandatory!
Anyway, I must be off.
We already are close to having one already, Universal Credit is a step in the right direction. But I would like to see a brave government go further and make it a true universal system: Universal Credit merged 6 benefits into one which was a good first step but we need to go much further in my eyes: Merge Universal Credit, Income Tax and National Insurance into one system.
Second thing I would do is to have a flat[ish] rate on the unified negative income tax. If you merge benefits and taxes into one, which they quintessentially are, then currently the most taxed in our society are the poorest who can face effective income tax rates of about 80%.
I wonder how a system like that could draw support from across the spectrum?
Iranians are mostly Shi'ite (sic) anyway.
1st 6 games - without Willy Boly - 8 goals conceded
Last 4 games - with Willy Boly - 0 goals conceded
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/2/12/21133560/coronavirus-china-bats-pangolin-zoonotic-disease
This is a classic panic market sell-off, and my investments are for a 10-20 year horizon to pay for my children’s education.
So, I will hold and buy some more if others bed wet.
Of course, runs of bad weather do have a downward effect just like hot summers have a positive effect.
This is Britain.
https://twitter.com/MichaelFanning7/status/1231942430456532992?s=20
I’m not cashing in for years, so I don’t care.
London Irish with Hepetema and Rona as starting centres: 4 PPG (24 points over 6 games)
London Irish with any other centre combination: 0.6 PPG (3 points over 5 games)
What makes it even more interesting is that those 5 games are spread out in 3 different groups of games, and one of the two mentioned above started in the centres in all 5 games.
https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/best-in-edinburgh/restaurants-bars/mouse-poo-semolina-popular-edinburgh-17764824
How do you eat a Pangolin?
Like an artichoke, do you pluck off the scales and dip them in Hollandaise sauce?
Like when Leavers tell us what a dreadful PM David Cameron was.
It’s pluses and negatives. We might be emotionally stunted, intensely reserved, and prefer animals to humans , but the flip side of that is that we’re pretty stoic when the chips are down.
Unless you’re a bestselling author of fiction of course.
Just as silly.
See my post at 6.27pm.
You could barely move in August and the restaurants were all pretty full but this time last year (with better weather) it was quite quiet and we went to a restaurant where there was only one other couple in the restaurant at that time.
So in my experience this is unusual. Are people travelling less? Less confident about public spaces, restaurants, hotels, airports? Don’t know.
Therefore, I’m not sure what happens if the actuarial materialises and Pence takes over as President before November. It’s possible it will be voided or just ignored, with the market continuing.
Either way, I’m keeping Pence covered.
Just thought I'd say hello, and then toddle off and do some actual work, rather than hanging around with you reprobates.
It’s obviously designed to test a campaign message though.
1. Why the fuck are some tube workers on strike; and
2. People on the whole seem to be holding up well. There was a spontaneous outbreak of singing (We'll Keep The Home Fires Burning) but other than that everyone was behaving for all the world as if they weren't aware of their imminent annihilation.
They even closed me down when I tried to explain Normalcy Bias to them when we were stuck at a red signal at High Street Ken.
Anyway, the current reaction in the insurance industry has been to shrug and say "is that it? This is well inside our disaster scenario planning." So far, anyway.
https://twitter.com/spainkiller/status/1231869865205620742?s=21
Yes "we" are making a mistake in writing off Sanders chances against the Maximum Moron.
But I'm not. I think he’ll win easily.
https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1231904958167080960?s=20
#unelectable
Now at 60s.
My daughter was gobbling up the black pudding and roast chicken I cooked at the weekend.
It was quite difficult for a low budget tourist, outside the hotels as many restaurants refused us. We did ok with Dim Sum as we could point to order, but tougher later in the day.
In the restraunt district there were often cages of exotic animals, and I remember pangolins as well as many reptiles. It would have been quite interesting if it wasn't for the cruelty. Often diners would taunt their caged meal with sticks. Apparently the fear hormones make the meat more tender.
The strange devotion of Chinese to their songbirds was a complete contrast. Older men would congregate with their birds in small bamboo cages, and they would hang them up in the cages to sing to each other. Quite beautiful in a way, but also the reason that you see few wild songbirds in SE Asia.