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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Tr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we being premature writing off Bernie’s chances against Trump?
The latest betting on Betfair has Trump as a 59% chance of being re-elected in November. This reflects a widespread view that Sanders is going to win the nomination but that when it comes to the election itself he’ll prove to be unelectable.
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I think the parallels being drawn between Sanders and Corbyn are overblown, but there is enough there to fear that the Dems are making a similar mistake, IMO.
HOWEVER, Corbyn was never popular. Sander's polling and the fact he's facing a wildly reviled president means the situation is not as symmetric as I (at least) first thought.
I get the impression that Bernie's team realises this, and that if nominated he'll spend much of his time were he has to win, rather than where he will.
Agree too that the choice of VP is going to be important. Amy K?
And second, at time of writing!
God, no, one is bad enough.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iGvzqbNJxTpJ6A_I6mdOrc7uirdbKSqANnFb7dEN23Y/edit?usp=sharing
I think that there are only 8 states that matter.
My probabilistic estimate is Trump 273, Sanders 263. Big range. Nearly a toss-up.
https://goldprice.org/
What assumptions underpin it?
It led me to read about MMS, which is properly bonkers. People drinking bleach to "cure" cancer, AIDS, autism, etc.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0008jqg
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
I'm relying on the RCP average polls for the swing states.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html
I'm assuming that Sanders requires a clear 5% lead in a state to be sure of winning and a zero lead means he certainly loses. Interpolated between 0 and 5.
The upside assumes he wins in all states where he has a lead. The downside assumes he loses in all states where he doesn't have at least a 5% lead.
It's a simple as that. So it is polling reliant. What other evidence is there apart from exclamations that "No socialist can win in the US" or "He's just too old"?
Better to ask people what they think and go by that. There are large MOEs on these polls so it is worth looking at the range of possible outcomes which is very large, rather than focusing on the point projection.
https://twitter.com/davidgraeber/status/1231938070590742529
It's also profoundly alien to the US worldview to ban private provision.
He won't, but a rally of that size augurs well for Super Tuesday I'd have thought there ?
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1231845547763544064
[what nutter would want to do this is beyond me]
7 now dead in Italy. But not to worry because they have RTAs there too.
When fifty years united to a shrew.
Released, he hopefully for entrance cries
Before the gates of Brahma's paradise.
"Hast been through Purgatory?" Brahma said.
"I have been married!" and he hung his head.
"Come in! Come in! And welcome to my son!
Marriage and Purgatory are as one."
In bliss extreme he entered Heaven's door,
And knew the peace he ne'er had known before.
He scarce had entered in the gardens fair,
Another Hindu asked admission there.
The self-same question Brahma asked again:
"Has been through Purgatory?" "No; what then?"
"Thou canst not enter!" did the god reply.
"He that went in was there no more than I."
"All that is true, but he has married been,
And so on earth has suffered for all his sin."
"Married? 'Tis well; for I've been married twice."
"Begone! We'll have no fools in Paradise!"
-George Birdseye
I know Americans like late entrances to fights but this might be an error by Bloomberg.
Fantastic.
EDIT: changed from 20 to 30 minutes, as on reflection the form-filling and payment probably took 10 minutes in addition to the treatment.
Sanders, unlike Corbyn, has run things - principally Burlington City, where by all accounts he did a competent job. This matters. Same thing incidentally applies to Starmer vis a vis the other Labour candidates.
We cannot overestimate the degree to which the American healthcare system sucks. People have to worry about whether they will be covered, the premium costs that can run to thousands of dollars a year, as well as very large deductables and copays. At the end of it all the treatment is patchy, at best.
Sanders has a potentially very compelling offer to take those healthcare worries away. Trump, having promised to replace Obamacare with something wonderful and failed to deliver at any level at all, is vulnerable on this topic.
Where I think Sanders is like Corbyn is in having a massive spending programme. On college education debts, which admittedly are another scandal, as well as other welfare and public servants. I suspect he would have more credibility if he just focused on the healthcare issue and left the other issues for another administration. I guess he's an old man in a hurry.
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/athletics/mo-farah-bbc-panorama-repeatedly-denied-injection-l-carnitine-alberto-salazar-a9354711.html
Here is his lawyers take.
"The fact some people might hold views as to whether this is within the 'spirit' of the sport is irrelevant."
But given it can take three weeks to progress from infection through to mortality, your logic is a bit squiffy.
Especially since they're not even a democracy anyway.
However, I'm with you. This one is bad. Hopefully we are wrong.
If Sanders wins South Carolina, it's all over tbh.
Shaun said that tackling crime in London is the single biggest issue facing the next London Mayor. He argued that police station visibility is a central plank of making Londoners feel safe in their communities again, making engaging with the police much easier, building a stronger local police presence and improving community relations with the police.“
https://thehaveringdaily.co.uk/2020/02/24/bailey-pledges-to-reverse-sadiq-khans-police-station-closures-and-reopen-38-stations-to-the-public/
Sanders is far more intellectually adept than Corbyn, and aware of the potential for racial or cultural stereotyping here, is in some ways a typical self-made New York Jewish intellectual.
I also think the pundit class could be as wrong about the potential results as they were with Trump. If Trump wins, I don't think it will by an enormous distance as many people believe.
I suspect Trump being POTUS improves the Dems chances of regaining the office, but does it improve it to 45% with Sanders as the candidate? I don't think so.
I think the market is if anything overestimating Sanders chances.
Edit: Ok, I have now spotted the technicality, but still...
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170501094306.htm
East Ham PS was unfortunately sold to the University of East London but it still sits unoccupied and unused so could be bought back I imagine.
It's a tempting and popular idea but not without its problems. One of the reasons some stations were closed were because their custody areas did not meet revised regulations for the monitoring of prisoners so it's not just a question of a lick of paint and away you go.
I'm not convinced by the sums touted in the article - you can always reckon with property on spending much more than you think as many of the buildings will need refurbishment to being them up to standard.
IF stations with proper custody areas can be re-opened it would certainly cut the amount of time officers have to spend with prisoners (to be honest, another big problem is the availability of interpreters and I notice Bailey says nothing about that) and get them back onto operational work.
The re-opening of stations would therefore need a commitment to rebuild the Met's strength to support this but officers need to be recruited and trained so it's not a policy with an immediate impact.
Now everyone seems to have smoothly moved from "all those reasons I said Sanders can't win the primary? Actually those are the reasons he can't win the general", without confronting why they were wrong to start with.
Run for your lives, flee.
https://www.thestar.co.uk/health/two-coronavirus-patients-are-being-treated-royal-hallamshire-hospital-sheffield-1888525?amp
You do though quite fairly illustrate the upside of governments (as in S Korea) being entirely open with the public. It does make it much harder to overestimate how bad things might be.
This is what the River Don next to Meadowhall currently looks like.
The last time I saw it this high the whole place flooded.
Run for your lives, flee etc.
What comes next?
https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar
More seriously the worry is the rain that fell on the hills earlier today.
#IMightBeABitBiased
(Joking apart, it does argue for a talented campaigner like her in the VP slot, rather than some no-name who ticks the right geographic boxes.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ufy9UXOeMw
Trump is the most unpopular president at this stage of his presidency since records began.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
By Daily Mail reporter @eadric
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8037835/Coronavirus-rapidly-fitting-Disease-X-category-World-Health-Organization-expert-warns.html