If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Yang was a refreshing different candidate. I don't agree with his solutions, but he is the only one to actually be highlighting the problems coming down the tracks with regards to automation of white collar jobs (in the way blue collar jobs have gone) due to Machine Learning / AI.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
I wouldn't put it that strongly. I know a campaign could potentially amplify his weakness but Sanders must be pretty well known by this point, and his polling against Trump is as strong as anyone's. I don't think this was ever true of Corbyn - his polling ranged from bad to terrible.
This isn't an offer to bet but I think I'd rate their chances against Trump something like:
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
His share has roughly halved and you call that "dropped a bit"?
You are Rebecca Long Bailey and I claim my £5. I'm sure Biden is running a 10/10 campaign in your eyes.
Biden will drop further after today. Its over.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
Winning California, likely followed by winning New York and Michigan etc will get him there, with his clear win in New Hampshire tonight Sanders road to the nomination is set fair
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
Winning California, likely followed by winning New York and Michigan etc will get him there, with his clear win in New Hampshire tonight Sanders road to the nomination is clear
No it won't. Delegates are awarded proportionally. Getting a bunch of 30% shares - even if you're first - gets you nowhere near a majority of delegates.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
Winning California, likely followed by winning New York and Michigan etc will get him there, with his clear win in New Hampshire tonight Sanders road to the nomination is clear
27% in a proportional voting system doesn't make anything clear yet.
Between Biden, Klobuchar and Biden there's a majority there for a moderate - if they can get behind one candidate then its game over for Sanders.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
His share has roughly halved and you call that "dropped a bit"?
You are Rebecca Long Bailey and I claim my £5. I'm sure Biden is running a 10/10 campaign in your eyes.
Biden will drop further after today. Its over.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
I would suggest that shares are unlikely to move much from here. Sanders by five points from Buttigieg, who's three points clear of Klobuchar. 10:8:6 on the delegate count.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
His share has roughly halved and you call that "dropped a bit"?
You are Rebecca Long Bailey and I claim my £5. I'm sure Biden is running a 10/10 campaign in your eyes.
Biden will drop further after today. Its over.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Utter rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee
You seem to think it's winner takes all with delegates, it's not.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
I don't think Sanders is the nominee unless he's the clear delegate leader. 35-38% of delegates is not enough.
If he were a member of the Democratic Party, it might be a bit different.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
If down the track the third placed candidate pulls out and backs the second placed candidate then yes that is exactly what they could do. A deal for eg a Buttigieg/Klobuchar ticket could easily see them leapfrog Sanders in delegates.
Yglesias point supporting HYUFD's point of view against mine/@rcs1000's:
I know there's people here invested in bigging-up anyone but Sanders, but there's a reason the pundits realise the current setup is likely to lead to a Bernie nom.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
I really don't watch TED talks. But his is going to be awesome. Pretty much what his entire campaign was leading up to.
I guess the whole strategy of publicly writing off a key state doesn't work. Does anyone in his campaign actually think SC needs to see more of Biden? He's not good at retail politics and if anything, his actual presence there won't help.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
I don't think Sanders is the nominee unless he's the clear delegate leader. 35-38% of delegates is not enough.
If he were a member of the Democratic Party, it might be a bit different.
Again some political realism is needed.
Since Sanders and the Democrats think that he is a Democrat and he votes with Democrats and Caucuses with Senate Democrats, in all practical purposes he is a Democrat.
Yglesias point supporting HYUFD's point of view against mine/@rcs1000's:
Yes, I know there's people here invested in bigging up anyone but Sanders, but there's a reason the pundits realise the current setup is likely to lead to a Bernie nom.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
Say you're Buttigieg and Klobuchar and you come out of Super Tuesday with numbers like we just saw in NH. [*]
You get together and say, "We disagree on who is best to lead the ticket, but we agree on the general way forward. We also think Bernie's plans for X, Y and Z are bad ideas. We have agreed that if we reach 50% of delegates between us, whichever has the fewer delegates will support the other."
Now you've turned the rest of the primary into Moderate Ticket vs Bernie. After each race the media will sum the delegates for Moderate Ticket. There will be no problem claiming legitimacy for Moderate Ticket, it'll have won lots of races.
What's more, if it looks like Moderate Ticket is winning, what's the point in voting for Bernie when you can pick your favourite candidate on Moderate Ticket and actually help decide who gets to be president?
[*] Not that I think this will happen - I think they'll consolidate, most likely in Mayor Pete's favour.
Sanders can't beat Trump. He hasn't a cat's chance in hell. Dems keep screaming that nothing matters on this earth other than beating Trump.
And yet...
Agreed. Hopefully Biden's dismal failure sees his campaign put out to pasture. If Biden's votes go to Buttigieg or Klobuchar who swallows up the other one there's a path to a moderate who might - just might - beat Trump.
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
If Buttigieg or Klobuchar fail to win South Carolina then in my view Sanders will be nominee now through momentum and split opposition, he already leads in big Super Tuesday states like California
Yes, but he has to get 50%+1 to be nominee. Having the most delegates is not sufficient.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
I don't think Sanders is the nominee unless he's the clear delegate leader. 35-38% of delegates is not enough.
If he were a member of the Democratic Party, it might be a bit different.
rcs, you live in America: you should know better. There is no such thing as a “member” of an American political party!
I really don't watch TED talks. But his is going to be awesome. Pretty much what his entire campaign was leading up to.
I guess the whole strategy of publicly writing off a key state doesn't work. Does anyone in his campaign actually think SC needs to see more of Biden? He's not good at retail politics and if anything, his actual presence there won't help.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
Say you're Buttigieg and Klobuchar and you come out of Super Tuesday with numbers like we just saw in NH. [*]
You get together and say, "We disagree on who is best to lead the ticket, but we agree on the general way forward. We also think Bernie's plans for X, Y and Z are bad ideas. We have agreed that if we reach 50% of delegates between us, whichever has the fewer delegates will support the other."
Now you've turned the rest of the primary into Moderate Ticket vs Bernie. After each race the media will sum the delegates for Moderate Ticket. There will be no problem claiming legitimacy for Moderate Ticket, it'll have won lots of races.
What's more, if it looks like Moderate Ticket is winning, what's the point in voting for Bernie when you can pick your favourite candidate on Moderate Ticket and actually help decide who gets to be president?
[*] Not that I think this will happen - I think they'll consolidate, most likely in Mayor Pete's favour.
That's a good plan. But she also absolutely despises him.
And what are they going to do? Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
Say you're Buttigieg and Klobuchar and you come out of Super Tuesday with numbers like we just saw in NH. [*]
You get together and say, "We disagree on who is best to lead the ticket, but we agree on the general way forward. We also think Bernie's plans for X, Y and Z are bad ideas. We have agreed that if we reach 50% of delegates between us, whichever has the fewer delegates will support the other."
Now you've turned the rest of the primary into Moderate Ticket vs Bernie. After each race the media will sum the delegates for Moderate Ticket. There will be no problem claiming legitimacy for Moderate Ticket, it'll have won lots of races.
What's more, if it looks like Moderate Ticket is winning, what's the point in voting for Bernie when you can pick your favourite candidate on Moderate Ticket and actually help decide who gets to be president?
[*] Not that I think this will happen - I think they'll consolidate, most likely in Mayor Pete's favour.
Is NYT sleep deprived, or are Biden/Warren doing well enough to win a delegate in one of the districts? It currently has 9/8/5/1/1 for Sanders/But/Klob/War/Biden.
It's Kobuchar's night. But these really aren't great numbers for Sanders. He's lost more than half his votes from 2016, and the entire "Left" lane of the Democratic primary is stuck under 40%.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Sanders getting a load of 27% doesn't give him a majority, you do realise that don't you?
Especially as the minnows drop out and don't go to him.
Biden votes will go to him as EdinTokyo has shown
Yet the drop in Biden's support that happened post Iowa didn't go mainly to Sanders.
But we will see.
Sanders is going to win tonight
In a winner takes all state he would. He's coming out of this with a minority of delegates. He really needs to start hitting 40%+ of delegates to stand a chance.
Buttigieg at just 4%, if he fails to win South Carolina his campaign is likely near over too
Don't be farcical. He's the clear runner up to Sanders as it stands. If he is runner up to Sanders in South Carolina then I'd make him odds on favourite for the nomination as the moderates will swing behind him.
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Rubbish, if Sanders wins South Carolina it is all over bar the shouting, Sanders is nominee.
Sanders getting a load of 27% doesn't give him a majority, you do realise that don't you?
Especially as the minnows drop out and don't go to him.
Biden votes will go to him as EdinTokyo has shown
Yet the drop in Biden's support that happened post Iowa didn't go mainly to Sanders.
But we will see.
Sanders is going to win tonight
In a winner takes all state he would. He's coming out of this with a minority of delegates. He really needs to start hitting 40%+ of delegates to stand a chance.
With a 74% favourable rating from Democrats with Morning Consult Sanders will hit that soon enough too
Sanders barely clearing a quarter of the votes, in his own backyard, with Warren in freefall, the moderate vote still split bit starting to consolidate, and Bloomberg still to come in.
This is not good news for Sanders. It's really hard to see why he's such a strong favourite for the nomination.
NYT saying that Buttigeg and Sanders have about the same number of votes left, and gives Sanders a 52% chance of winning, with 1.7% lead. They must be smoking some fun stuff.
Comments
And yet...
Sanders 27-30%
Buttigieg 21-23%
Klobuchar 18-20%
Delegates go 10:8:6
Bernie Sanders 22,755 28.20%
Pete Buttigieg 18,129 22.47%
Amy Klobuchar 15,559 19.28%
The race for second place it still very open.
Bernie Sanders 23,030 27.00%
Pete Buttigieg 20,284 23.78%
Amy Klobuchar 16,317 19.13%
Wow. That's a big closing of the Sanders-Buttigieg gap
https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1226957303527755780?s=20
A "progressive" means 4 more years of Trump nailed on.
Bernie Sanders 24,436 27.37%
Pete Buttigieg 20,284 22.72%
Amy Klobuchar 17,830 19.97%
Bernie Sanders 24,540 27.37%
Pete Buttigieg 20,341 22.69%
Amy Klobuchar 17,830 19.89%
You are Rebecca Long Bailey and I claim my £5. I'm sure Biden is running a 10/10 campaign in your eyes.
Biden will drop further after today. Its over.
This isn't an offer to bet but I think I'd rate their chances against Trump something like:
KLOBUCHAR 65%
Biden 60%
Buttigieg 55%
Warren 40%
Bernie 40%
Bernie Sanders 24,818 27.30%
Pete Buttigieg 20,668 22.74%
Amy Klobuchar 18,073 19.88%
you. can't. call. it. you. aren't. the. official. who. calls. it.
(sorry, it's a quirk of mine.
Bernie Sanders 24,866 27.21%
Pete Buttigieg 20,911 22.89%
Amy Klobuchar 18,113 19.82%
President Pete is going to wipe the floor with the orange devil.
Bernie Sanders 25,126 27.13%
Pete Buttigieg 21,260 22.96%
Amy Klobuchar 18,304 19.77%
4% in a poll means nothing too. Bloomberg has just gone from 7% to 22% in a week. Buttigieg could easily be over 20% in a few weeks.
Bernie Sanders 26,429 27.56%
Pete Buttigieg 21,644 22.57%
Amy Klobuchar 18,863 19.67%
Between Biden, Klobuchar and Biden there's a majority there for a moderate - if they can get behind one candidate then its game over for Sanders.
Buttigieg needed to win New Hampshire tonight to sustain his momentum, he has lost.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1227276033184935936?s=20
Bernie Sanders 26,429 27.46%
Pete Buttigieg 21,776 22.62%
Amy Klobuchar 18,983 19.72%
I would suggest that shares are unlikely to move much from here. Sanders by five points from Buttigieg, who's three points clear of Klobuchar. 10:8:6 on the delegate count.
Bernie Sanders 26,524 27.47%
Pete Buttigieg 21,826 22.60%
Amy Klobuchar 18,983 19.66%
Bernie Sanders 27,155 27.50%
Pete Buttigieg 22,184 22.47%
Amy Klobuchar 19,292 19.54%
Give it to the candidate who got less delegates or even none?
Some political realism is necessary.
Especially as the minnows drop out and don't go to him.
Bernie Sanders 27,734 27.31%
Pete Buttigieg 23,112 22.75%
Amy Klobuchar 19,964 19.66%
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1227403762727346176
If he were a member of the Democratic Party, it might be a bit different.
Bernie Sanders 28,646 27.64%
Pete Buttigieg 23,360 22.54%
Amy Klobuchar 20,361 19.65%
But we will see.
Bernie Sanders 29,271 27.47%
Pete Buttigieg 24,366 22.86%
Amy Klobuchar 20,914 19.62%
Real voters aren't doing that though.
Bernie Sanders 29,583 27.45%
Pete Buttigieg 24,442 22.68%
Amy Klobuchar 21,230 19.70%
I guess the whole strategy of publicly writing off a key state doesn't work. Does anyone in his campaign actually think SC needs to see more of Biden? He's not good at retail politics and if anything, his actual presence there won't help.
Since Sanders and the Democrats think that he is a Democrat and he votes with Democrats and Caucuses with Senate Democrats, in all practical purposes he is a Democrat.
There are 5 of them.
You get together and say, "We disagree on who is best to lead the ticket, but we agree on the general way forward. We also think Bernie's plans for X, Y and Z are bad ideas. We have agreed that if we reach 50% of delegates between us, whichever has the fewer delegates will support the other."
Now you've turned the rest of the primary into Moderate Ticket vs Bernie. After each race the media will sum the delegates for Moderate Ticket. There will be no problem claiming legitimacy for Moderate Ticket, it'll have won lots of races.
What's more, if it looks like Moderate Ticket is winning, what's the point in voting for Bernie when you can pick your favourite candidate on Moderate Ticket and actually help decide who gets to be president?
[*] Not that I think this will happen - I think they'll consolidate, most likely in Mayor Pete's favour.
Sanders: 38%
Klob: 33%
Buttigeg: 29%
Surely in this scenario Buttigeg endorses Klob and Sanders misses out, even in a 40/30/30 case one of the electables comes through.
Bernie Sanders 31,899 26.67%
Pete Buttigieg 26,706 22.33%
Amy Klobuchar 25,671 21.47%
A losers ticket is not going to work.
Bernie Sanders 31,964 26.61%
Pete Buttigieg 26,919 22.41%
Amy Klobuchar 25,746 21.44%
Bernie Sanders 32,542 26.64%
Pete Buttigieg 27,350 22.39%
Amy Klobuchar 26,163 21.41%
Bernie Sanders 33,288 27.20%
Pete Buttigieg 28,242 23.08%
Amy Klobuchar 23,882 19.52%
NYT: Sanders 58% chance of winning
?????
Bernie Sanders 34,250 27.19%
Pete Buttigieg 29,012 23.03%
Amy Klobuchar 24,747 19.65%
Bernie Sanders 34,277 27.16%
Pete Buttigieg 29,026 23.00%
Amy Klobuchar 24,754 19.61%
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1227399763508842496
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1227408966340227073
Bernie Sanders 36,550 27.58%
Pete Buttigieg 30,032 22.66%
Amy Klobuchar 25,389 19.16%
They did the same for Trump in 2016.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/11/us/elections/results-new-hampshire-live-forecast.html?
Bernie Sanders 37,343 26.75%
Pete Buttigieg 32,164 23.04%
Amy Klobuchar 26,648 19.09%
Bernie Sanders 37,890 26.74%
Pete Buttigieg 32,975 23.27%
Amy Klobuchar 26,852 18.95%
Bernie Sanders 38,158 26.84%
Pete Buttigieg 32,975 23.20%
Amy Klobuchar 26,852 18.89%
Bernie Sanders 39,655 26.87%
Pete Buttigieg 34,414 23.32%
Amy Klobuchar 27,776 18.82%
Sanders barely clearing a quarter of the votes, in his own backyard, with Warren in freefall, the moderate vote still split bit starting to consolidate, and Bloomberg still to come in.
This is not good news for Sanders. It's really hard to see why he's such a strong favourite for the nomination.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227415133976223744