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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to New Hampshire – the first full primary
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to New Hampshire – the first full primary
It should be just after midnight in the UK when we will start to get information on how this crucial election is going. One of the best place to look is the New York Times which will be keeping an up to data record of the voting throughout the night.
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Foxy: "I bought a couple of million pound paintings myself just the other day myself
HOW Manet?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/11/trump-roger-stone-sentencing-reaction-criticism
Your fired, your fired, your fired....I'm off to get £12k for half hours work, c yah.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7992449/Senior-BBC-manager-apologises-accepting-12-000-appearance-fee-speak-hedge-fund-managers.html
If I wake up for a pee in the night curiousity may get the better of me.
Enjoy!
I think that the results will be certified next week, and Betfair will then payout.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1227000711495503878?s=20
The NCSC actually advises against using ZTE in communications infrastructure, because unlike with Huawei they do not think the security issues could be mitigated.
BTW Starmer has managed 15 so far tonight.
We've effectively maxed out current resources whether that is people, land or capital.
Some of the economic data coming from the eurozone is pretty horrible though.
For example in December Germany had monthly falls of 3.3% in retail sales and 3.5% in industrial production.
I mean the place is a shit hole.
But given the total, this is Bernie's, then maybe we are in for a surprise.
https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1227300628940148736?s=20
And no-one ships low-value autos around the world. It's nothing to do with tariffs, it's because vehicles are usually specc'ed to order, and that doesn't work (except for things like McLarens) if you have to wait three months for your car to arrive. (Which is why Mercedes makes their C Class in the US rather than shipping it from Germany or Eastern Europe.)
I've gone with Trump @ 75% for re-election in scenario (a) because first term Presidents almost always win (over 90% in past century) and because even though Trump is "deplorable" Americans don't like socialists. I think if the Democrats go with a "progressive" then they will stick with the devil they know (who won't be able to get a third term).
If the Democrats go with a moderate OTOH I'd put it roughly 50-50
As I mentioned in the last thread, it's entirely possible that the most delegates will go to the candidate who comes second in terms of vote share.
The combination of the 15% hurdle at the Congressional District Level, and the fact that the Second District will probably see around 10-20% more votes cast than the first mean that's entirely possible that Sanders wins the vote share race but Buttigieg picks up more delegates.
What's the best thing to come out of Stoke? The A500*.
*Apologies if it isn't the A500 but some other A road.
Between Eisenhower and Reagan, I think only Nixon managed to win a second term, with LBJ not contesting ('cause he'd lose), and Carter and Ford losing,
If you had told me growing up that the Tories would win Stoke, we would be calling for the men in white coats. They used to weigh the Labour vote.
1952, 1956 Rep
1960, 1964 Dem
1968, 1972 Rep
1976 Dem
1980, 1984, 1988 Rep
1992, 1996 Dem
2000, 2004 Rep
2008, 2012 Dem
In fact you have to go back to the 19th century to find another one term Presidency for either party.
Also, far less "very liberal" voters and way more independents have turned out.
Obama - 2
W Bush - 2
Clinton - 2
Bush - 1
Reagan - 2
Carter - 1
Ford - 1
Nixon - 1 and a bit
LBJ - 1 and a bit
JFK - half
Eisenhower - 2
Samuel Johnson
In reverse order going back to the start of the 20th Century:
Obama - Won re-election
George W Bush - Won re-election
Bill Clinton - Won re-election
Reagan - Won re-election
Carter - Lost
Nixon - Win re-election
LBJ (succeeded JFK after his death) - Won re-election
Dwight D. Eisenhower - Won re-election
FDR - Won re-election
Coolidge (succeeded Harding after his death) - Won re-election
Wilson - Won re-election
Teddy Roosevelt (succeeded McKinley after his death) - Won re-election
In summary all 12 first term Presidents sought re-election. 1/12 lost (8.3%), 11/12 won though 3 of those 11 had only become President following the death of the elected President.
George HW Bush, Gerald Ford, Truman, Hoover and Taft were not first term Presidents as they succeeded prior ones from their party who had a 100% record in winning re-election
2020
18-29 - 11% turn out
65+ - 33% turn out
2016
18-29 - 19% turn out
65+ - 18% turn out
Likewise Bush 1 was effectively the natural continuation of the Reagan presidency.
I think its probably significant that the the only 3 term party presidency followed immediately after the only 1 term presidency with the 'natural' order then coming back.
Of course Trump is someone who disrupts all 'natural' orders.
I suspect if we had a standard Republican currently as President he would be very likely to be re-elected.
After all the only 1 term presidency was Carter's which finished in both economic recession and international humiliation.
The real shockers were Burnley and Redcar with the Conservatives going from fourth in 2015 to first in 2019.
The Democrats first term from 1961 ended after LBJ's victory - it didn't end upon JFK's death.
Ford succeeded Nixon but Nixon had already won re-election in 1972 so it was a second term not a first term.
Sounds like death is a pretty big feature in POTUS.
But I wouldn't want to bet on it unless you gave me some very attractive odds.
Not just for his thrashing in 1980 but for only scraping a win in 1976.
After Watergate, defeat in Vietnam and the mid 70s recession it should have been a landslide win for the Democrats in 1976.
There could be a pattern.
If trump gets in, he'll be the 5th in a row.
Indeed Sanders is just 1% behind Buttigieg with over 65s but 24% ahead of him with under 35s. Biden though is 6% ahead of Buttigieg with over 65s and 7% ahead of Sanders.
https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/research-at-suffolk/political-research-center/polls/new-hampshire
Exciting staggering given I'm very long her.
Biden surely isn't leaving before SC.
From Change Research:
Among voters 65 and over, Buttigieg leads 21 to 18 over Sanders
He has a very small lead over Sanders in the 50 to 64 age group.
Sanders, though, has massive leads in the 18 to 34 group, and a pretty decent one in 35 to 49.
Where as I get why people get excited by Bernie, like Jezza, he has 40 years worth of honing the same patter, which unchallenged he can deliver well.