There's no doubt that the big story of today is Klobuchar's success, and Biden and Warren collapsing. I could see a lot of Warren's vote go Klobuchar's way. Of course, this may be my book talking.
He has to pull in every favour he's ever been owed to get in to SC strongly. A decent SC win should transform the narrative for him.
The problem he has in money. He doesn't have any. And I can't see him continuing to get decent donations.
I've been confused about this for ages. How did Biden not end up with money? Dem elite/money bags have placed it where? Can't been Bloomberg, he doesn't need a dime.
Waiting for the NH Exit polls in 20 minutes' time, Bloomberg is currently 2nd favourite to win the Democratic Nomination AT 4.1 on BetfairEx = 3.95 net and 8.0 (7.65 net) to win the POTUS election in November.
He has to pull in every favour he's ever been owed to get in to SC strongly. A decent SC win should transform the narrative for him.
The problem he has in money. He doesn't have any. And I can't see him continuing to get decent donations.
I've been confused about this for ages. How did Biden not end up with money? Dem elite/money bags have placed it where? Can't been Bloomberg, he doesn't need a dime.
Maybe holding fire until the General against Trump?
He has to pull in every favour he's ever been owed to get in to SC strongly. A decent SC win should transform the narrative for him.
And he's about to crash and burn in heavily Hispanic Nevada.
Yep, the unions may possibly help him out a bit, but not enough to push him into the front again. Not keeping a cash stockpile looks to be a soon to be fatal mistake.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
Warren's best early state is Nevada, so she'll probably want to hang on for that. And she's OK (not great, but OK) for money.
From preliminary results, looks like only the top 3 will be hitting the viability threshold. Don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that'll hold at the district level too. That's good news for Sanders.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Very strange how none of the massive maomentum mob managed to find a train to Stoke to help her out during the GE, despite her calling repeatedly for assistance.
To be fair would you really want to go to Stoke?
I mean the place is a shit hole.
Oi, I'm originally from that part of the world....
You have my sympathies.
What's the best thing to come out of Stoke? The A500*.
*Apologies if it isn't the A500 but some other A road.
“The noblest prospect which a Scotchman ever sees, is the high road that leads him to England!”
Samuel Johnson
How typical
How humourless.
Any fule no that Dr Johnson was poking fun at his Scottish friend and ultimately biographer, Boswell!
London had seen an influx of Scots benefitting from the freedom of movement afforded by the Union (one curiously the current regime wants to end) and Johnson enjoyed poking fun at them.
His definition for Oats:
oats: 'a grain, which in England is generally given to horses, but in Scotland supports the people.'
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Yes, hard to see a way forward for her. Biden has SC, perhaps. Buttigieg and Klobouchar have some momentum, Sanders is doing well but not overwhelmingly. But Warren?
538: "MATT GROSSMANN8:01 PM Since Biden was Sanders’s largest obstacle to the nomination — and since the field of alternatives to Sanders remains fractured — Biden’s fall (and replacement by more than one moderate alternative) is good news for Sanders. Neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar have thus far shown any sign of being able to consolidate African American support, which was key to Biden’s potential majority.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
From preliminary results, looks like only the top 3 will be hitting the viability threshold. Don't know for sure, but I'm guessing that'll hold at the district level too. That's good news for Sanders.
Good news for Sanders - we knew he'd do well but he's not really beating expectations, but may knock out Warren. Great news for Buttigieg and Klobuchar who've done much better than people reasonably forecast a month ago and probably knocked out Biden.
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Yes, hard to see a way forward for her. Biden has SC, perhaps. Buttigieg and Klobouchar have some momentum, Sanders is doing well but not overwhelmingly. But Warren?
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
If Biden pulls out then whom do you think he or his supporters might endorse from the remaining candidates?
He won't pull out, he will go to South Carolina where he still leads.
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
The race will be on between Buttigieg and Klobuchar.
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
I might have to go to bed soon, knowing that Dem primary voters appear to want Sanders to take on Trump.
Idiots and self-indulgent fools.
If this isn't Corbynism all over again then I am a Dutchman.
He needs 50%+1. He's on less than 30%.
Admittedly the split on the moderate side won't help because you lose some delegates to the 15% thresholds but it seems plausible that Biden throws in the towel while Warren stays in, in which both sides are getting delegates rounded down.
Comments
But yes, if these figures are representative then it's great news for the moderates and bad news for Sanders.
Sanders 27%
Buttigieg 22%
Klobuchar 21%
11% under 24
34% over 65 years old
Again it's a very Old, very Conservative, very Republican electorate in the Democratic Primary.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/buzzfeednews/live-results-new-hampshire-democratic-primary
Remember you need to get 50%+1 of the delegates. On 27:22:21, Sanders gets 9 delegates, Buttigieg 8 and Klobuchar 7.
Sanders 29%
Buttigieg 21%
Klobuchar 18%
Warren 10%
Biden 8%
Not yet but the results are very evenly spread in favour of Sanders.
The Conservative Democrats seem to have split their vote.
Sanders 28.14%
Buttigieg 22.68%
Klobuchar 18.60%
Sanders 29.59%
Buttigieg 21.61%
Klobuchar 18.55%
That means delegates split 10:8:6
I don't know how Biden continues after this, and these are also terrible numbers for Warren.
I will probably call it for Sanders in around 15 minutes.
Bernie Sanders 12,941 29.69%
Pete Buttigieg 9,436 21.65%
Amy Klobuchar 8,062 18.50%
If as now looks likely Sanders wins New Hampshire and Warren is effectively eliminated, the race will be on between Buttigieg, Biden and Klobuchar to be the leading moderate to take on the leftist Sanders
Biden though may go bust before South Carolina.
Bernie Sanders 13,757 28.83%
Pete Buttigieg 10,361 21.71%
Amy Klobuchar 9,157 19.19%
And to a lesser extent Mayor Pete
Bernie Sanders 13,757 28.73%
Pete Buttigieg 10,361 21.64%
Amy Klobuchar 9,157 19.12%
Bernie Sanders 14,398 28.69%
Pete Buttigieg 11,070 22.06%
Amy Klobuchar 9,450 18.83%
Bernie Sanders 15,028 28.78%
Pete Buttigieg 11,308 21.66%
Amy Klobuchar 10,019 19.19%
Bernie Sanders 15,351 28.00%
Pete Buttigieg 12,451 22.71%
Amy Klobuchar 10,498 19.15%
Biden campaign's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This campaign is no more! It has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker! 'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to South Carolina 'e'd be pushing up the daisies! 'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig! 'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-CAMPAIGN!!
Bernie Sanders 15,740 28.04%
Pete Buttigieg 12,570 22.39%
Amy Klobuchar 11,056 19.70%
Any fule no that Dr Johnson was poking fun at his Scottish friend and ultimately biographer, Boswell!
London had seen an influx of Scots benefitting from the freedom of movement afforded by the Union (one curiously the current regime wants to end) and Johnson enjoyed poking fun at them.
His definition for Oats:
oats: 'a grain, which in England is generally given to horses, but in Scotland supports the people.'
Bernie Sanders 17,101 27.59%
Pete Buttigieg 13,957 22.52%
Amy Klobuchar 12,182 19.65%
Bernie Sanders 17,976 28.26%
Pete Buttigieg 14,119 22.20%
Amy Klobuchar 12,366 19.44%
Since Biden was Sanders’s largest obstacle to the nomination — and since the field of alternatives to Sanders remains fractured — Biden’s fall (and replacement by more than one moderate alternative) is good news for Sanders. Neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar have thus far shown any sign of being able to consolidate African American support, which was key to Biden’s potential majority.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire
Bernie Sanders 18,173 28.39%
Pete Buttigieg 14,119 22.06%
Amy Klobuchar 12,513 19.55%
Great news for Buttigieg and Klobuchar who've done much better than people reasonably forecast a month ago and probably knocked out Biden.
Politics is brutal.
Iowa Democratic Caucus, Hour 12. Oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck, what happened!
After that debacle, we wont predict from incomplete unrepresentative returns ever again, oh no, lesson leaned, no siree...
New Hampshire Democratic Primary, Hour 1. This is really predictable!...
Never change, PB...
Bernie Sanders 18,557 27.91%
Pete Buttigieg 15,018 22.59%
Amy Klobuchar 12,813 19.27%
Bernie Sanders 19,429 28.38%
Pete Buttigieg 15,124 22.09%
Amy Klobuchar 13,074 19.09%
Sanders 26
Buttigieg 23
Klobuchar 21
Biden 10
Warren 9
Gabbard 4
Steyer 3
Yang 3
Idiots and self-indulgent fools.
If this isn't Corbynism all over again then I am a Dutchman.
Bernie Sanders 20,308 28.67%
Pete Buttigieg 15,678 22.13%
Amy Klobuchar 13,467 19.01%
Bernie Sanders 20,895 28.53%
Pete Buttigieg 16,300 22.26%
Amy Klobuchar 13,920 19.01%
Looks like a Sanders win, but not a particularly convincing one. Great news for Ms Klobuchar. Terrible news for Biden and Warren.
Admittedly the split on the moderate side won't help because you lose some delegates to the 15% thresholds but it seems plausible that Biden throws in the towel while Warren stays in, in which both sides are getting delegates rounded down.
Bernie Sanders 21,258 28.46%
Pete Buttigieg 16,588 22.20%
Amy Klobuchar 14,301 19.14%
Bernie Sanders 21,528 28.25%
Pete Buttigieg 17,090 22.43%
Amy Klobuchar 14,592 19.15%