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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A former Tory councillor becomes the first to declare for Jo Swinson’s old job as LD leader
Unlike Labour the Lib Dems decided to postpone the election to replace Jo Swinson until after the May local elections and in the meantime Ed Davey and the Party president, the blogger Mark Pack, are acting as joint leaders. The political logic is clear: the party traditionally does well in local elections and doesn’t want to be distracted by a leadership election.
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You’ll be shocked to learn he’s accepted a peerage.
He’s just a pound shop John Prescott.
If Sir Keir Starmer is elected Labour leader then the job of the Lib Dems became even harder.
Starmer might be open to some degree of co-operation.
Under FPTP the electoral fortunes of Lab and LD tend to move in sync. 1997 was a good year for both, 2015 a bad year for both. Both made modest gains in 2017, significant losses in 2019.
A less hostile approach between the leaderships should be possible under Starmer.
See 1997 where the LD vote fell 1% on 1992 but they won over 40 seats by sweeping their target seats
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225587560640061441?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225636151970549761?s=20
Is this realistic or just a comfort blanket for labour supporters who have been so demoralised since 12th December
Given labour have to gain 123 seats at the next GE it does seem a tad optimistic that all will be well soon
There might be another problem with Wera's premature declaration if it signals a naive openness to answering any question within earshot. Arguably this is what trapped Jo Swinson into a number of self-defeating positions.
It was as if he chose to forget there was a Transition and thus no practical change in order to make a fake point to the more uninformed - i.e. a considerable number - of his Leave followers.
Is this what you mean by "bright"? Exploiting the dim?
The very last thing the LDs should do is back someone who carries Coalition baggage.
Lab and LD do well when they complement one another
That's been Labour's USP.
With any modicum of skill, nous and sense they could have galloped along a successful electoral road in 2015, 2017 and 2019. I doubt they will have another chance for a few election cycles, unless Labour continue on the path set out by JC
It would IMO have been wiser to attack Labour *policy* while saying that post-election negotiations depended on what the voters delivered. I know LibDem candidates in two of their target seats who are immensely frustrated that she prevented them getting sufficient tactical Labour votes with that one statement.
But it was undoubtedly awkward. I'd guess that if Labour has leadership seen as moderate then it'll be easier next time - and a mistake for the LibDems to be as immovable on the issue.
Of more significance will be Labour`s position on this.
She was a great member of the team and it is sad that circumstances and an enforced paucity of choice thrust her into the wrong role at the wrong time.
Many of the more partisan posters on here are definitely "flexible" belief-wise
* Insert whatever religion is required
Even Blair waited until leaving office before coming out as a catholic.
I can’t see this happening.
New parties can come about and gain popular support relatively swiftly. We've seen it happen here. UKIP didn't get much in the Commons but did achieve its ultimate aim.
Why not regale me with the donkeys achievements in 20 years as a troughing nonentity.
BF not paid out yet though.
He is certainly brighter than the current crop of Labour leadership candidates
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/anger-councils-told-fly-flags-21441826
In 1983 Labour led the Alliance by only 2.2%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_United_Kingdom_general_election
whereas in 2019 Labour were 20.6% ahead of the LibDems:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
"This is who we are. This is how we see the world. This is what we plan to do in office. Vote for us if you share that vision and trust us to deliver. And if you don't, despite all of our sincere and determined efforts to convince you, well OK, just fuck off and either stay at home or vote for somebody else."
This is our democracy. It is messy and often frustrating for the progressive Left but it's what we have and we must work with it.
https://twitter.com/bloggerheads/status/1225693420879925249?s=21
Nor can the Lords (ultimately) prevent the Commons passing, changing or repealing any law.
Its not the same thing as all.
FPT - looting India
They didn’t take the value created while they were there. They took 800 years of collected assets including all the stuff the Moghuls stripped out of Persia
For example, the University of Westminster was founded and endowed with the proceeds of one man’s career in India
However if he's intending to go to the Lords not as a crossbencher but as a Labour Lord then his lack of impartiality is less of an issue there. Plus seeing Bercow confirmed as a Labour Lord would confirm what we've known for the last few years.
The allegations are more important. If he abused his power in Parliament he shouldn't be allowed back into Parliament. If he hasn't then if he wishes to be a Labour Lord and Labour wish to bestow it upon him then that will just confirm what we already knew.
Rather like voting for Brexit. That got rid of our MEPs.
2: Elect a majority in the Commons who wishes to abolish the Lords and it is gone.
Personally I think we should rename the House of Lords if we're going to keep it. Change the Parliament Act so that the Commons can override the Lords after a week not a year - and within the same session too.
Rename it to something like the Privy Council and cease to call the Lords "politicians". Have the Commons as our unicameral chamber but the renamed Lords can be there to advise changes to laws but not force anything.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1225714468774187009
In comparison in 1983 when they were properly prepared to attack both parties the Alliance were just 2.2% behind Labour and just 17% behind the Tories.
If 2019 was the Lib Dems 'Tory flank' being protected I'd love to know how they perform if that flank failed.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/
I can think of someone else who its a lot easier to imagine involved in some lifestyle scandal.
Weren't the precincts counted at the time with everyone stood there. How frigging difficult is it for that final precinct to call its result in?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/nbc-news-review-iowa-caucus-vote-finds-potential-errors-inconsistencies-n1132011
Sounds like now that the lawyers are in as well.
Hobhouse has interesting background, and her religion seems to be relatively decaffeinated on Christian specifics - not surprising from someone with Jewish family background.
On the leadership, I'd say she would not have much impact. IMO LDs need to come to terms with the inconvenient fact that they hate themselves for their most successful period.
Pleased I’ve not got any bets on this, it’s looking more and more likely to end up with a void market.
Incidentally, the plonkerlike MP for Ashfield seems to have been on anti-plonker training. Gave a competent interview I saw yesterday without pratfalls. Not a singe attempt at media-fraud.