Murray nominated by Perthshire South and Kinross and Glasgow Pollock tonight. There should be enough Scottish CLPs left for him to reach 33
Allin-Khan got 4 CLPs tonight: Brentwood and Ongar, North Wiltshire, Wimbledon, Vale of Glamorgan
Fascinating to note that Scottish Labour organises itself along Scottish Parliamentary constituencies and not Westminster ones. Sign of the times.
Worth noting that this strategy gives SLab a little more weight in the process. If they’d chosen to organise along Westminster boundaries there’d be only 59 Scottish CLPs, but by using Holyrood boundaries, they have 73 Scottish CLPs. They’re not as daft as they look!
Digging into the results a bit … The largest county where all precincts are reporting is Iowa County. Clinton won this county 51 to 49 percent in 2016, and this year it was also an extremely close race: Buttigieg and Warren each got 26 percent of the state delegate equivalents there, while Sanders got 24 percent and Biden got 20 percent. Now, it probably wasn’t the same voters as 2016, and the voters probably didn’t break down this neatly, but it’s worth noting that the sum of Sanders and Warren’s shares this year almost exactly equal Sanders’s share in 2016.
To pound it home again, the polling in Iowa was... not wonderful. Even taking into account that it was a caucus, the dramatic Biden slump wasn't reflected in surveys during the last month.
What last night opens up is a three way battle for the mantle of the moderate candidate between Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg. If one of these doesn’t emerge quickly as undisputed champion of the moderates, Bernie Sanders is going to be very hard to stop.
Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?
We are dealing with a PR system here.
Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.
The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.
Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?
Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.
And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.
Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.
Perception is everything. Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.
That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers".
Yes, I've heard the same phrase from people in Nottingham referring to residents in West Bridgford.
Fur coat, ragged drawers, as I recall it. What a thought upon which to start the day. And Good Morning everyone.
Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?
We are dealing with a PR system here.
Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.
The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.
Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?
Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.
And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.
Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.
Perception is everything. Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.
That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers".
Yes, I've heard the same phrase from people in Nottingham referring to residents in West Bridgford.
West Bridgford was known as "Bread and Butter Island" when I was a kid. No idea why.
Joe Kennedy is probably having mixed emotions tonight.
He shouldn't, Sanders is now likely to be the eventual nominee after Biden's collapse (maybe with Buttigieg as VP nominee), then Trump is likely to be re elected. If Joe Kennedy wins the Massachusetts Senate race in November he will be ideally placed to follow in his great uncle's footsteps (and where his grandfather just missed out on following his assassination) in 2024
I’m not sure “just missed out” covers a failure to win the nomination after being assassinated!
"A spokeswoman for Mr Trump's re-election campaign attacked Mrs Pelosi on Twitter, writing: "Her hatred for @realdonaldtrump has blinded her to the repulsive nature of her smug, elitist behavior."
It's the meme of our times: politicians who are really elitist themselves managing to portray their opponents as that very thing whilst garnering the white working class vote.
I'd bet £100,000 on Trump's re-election. Not that I have it, in case anyone comes back with an offer.
Well, I think I might have to stay out of leadership betting in the future. Except maybe on the Lib Dems. They, at least, have the good manners to let me finish ahead.
I don't follow American politics much as my views generally are (a) Trump will walk re-election and (b) the DNC are morons. And the entertainment in whichever nowhere state this is proves my point b.
Former Mayor Pete? Love how when he talks he copies Obama in both cadence and finishing each major point with his voice dropping in pitch. I get the impression his politics are more centre ground than some of them (not difficult when you're up against bonkers Bernie) but I don't it matters as the American voter seems to love the Donald.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Boris Johnson has massively cocked things up because he didn’t think them through.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
I've backed Hamilton have under 20.5 season points finishes at 1.73. I think there are 22 races on the calendar. China is very likely to be cancelled due to the Coronavirus. Vietnam might be too. Japan's a less likely but credible possibility. If any two of those, therefore, get cancelled, the bet wins (or is voided).
If China only is cancelled that means the bet wins with a single DNF.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
How
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
How desperately short of talent can you be if Gove is the answer. A pygmy among pygmies.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
I heard Perry’s interview yesterday. It was self serving tosh. “I’m wonderful and visionary and disruptive and people don’t get me” why the Scottish government “behaved disgracefully” and Boris Johnson hadn’t gotten involved personally
She clearly presided over a complete mess. At some point it doesn’t matter who’s fault that is. The boss gets sacked.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
I was thinking along those lines just yesterday. Simple to draw, easily identifiable, clear meaning- its effective.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
Yes, but that does not really speak to the effectiveness of both their marketing themselves for the last year (long haul is another matter) and brand design.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
I think XR activists shutting down clean electric mass public transport stopping people from getting to work was the moment they jumped the shark and went from being an organisation seriously concerned about the environment to anarcho loons.
Environmentalism should be taken seriously, XR not so much.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
I heard Perry’s interview yesterday. It was self serving tosh. “I’m wonderful and visionary and disruptive and people don’t get me” why the Scottish government “behaved disgracefully” and Boris Johnson hadn’t gotten involved personally
She clearly presided over a complete mess. At some point it doesn’t matter who’s fault that is. The boss gets sacked.
After hearing her interview I thought she clearly doesn't know the words "grace" and "humility". I think its safe to say she won't be getting any further government roles.
Nice one rcs1000 (though not sure this is definite yet - BF still have odds worth taking).
Scrap that - odds gone now - was 1.2 a couple of minutes ago
There's a fair chunk available now at 1.18 (out from 1.02). It looks like the price crashed because punters just waking up overreacted to the midnight-ish updates.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
I think XR activists shutting down clean electric mass public transport stopping people from getting to work was the moment they jumped the shark and went from being an organisation seriously concerned about the environment to anarcho loons.
Environmentalism should be taken seriously, XR not so much.
In my town, one of their own daubed ‘A’ anarchist symbols on a number of town centre (including historic) buildings as well.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
What has that got to do with anything?
A brand isn’t just the symbol, it’s the image.
A brand image can be greatly tarnished by the behaviour of the proprietor, or those who purport to represent them.
Completely off topic but I generally think design students will end up studying the Extinction Rebellion symbol. It’s an absolute masterpiece of symbol design.
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Not really. XR have successfully branded themselves with the Left loony brush now, and turned off a lot of concerned middle-class professionals with their anarchist anti-capitalist antics.
I think XR activists shutting down clean electric mass public transport stopping people from getting to work was the moment they jumped the shark and went from being an organisation seriously concerned about the environment to anarcho loons.
Environmentalism should be taken seriously, XR not so much.
In my town, one of their own daubed ‘A’ anarchist symbols on a number of town centre (including historic) buildings as well.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Labour are on 202 seats so about the same as the Tories were after the boundary changes after 2005.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
The evening I spent drinking with Marianne Faithful was one of the most fun times I’ve had...
Sadly I can’t remember that much 😂
As I was saying to Michelle Obama the other day over dinner, I’m not a name dropper..
She came to speak to the union when I was at university - the president knew I was a fan of hers and took me out for dinner with her.
That make you feel more secure?
Interesting you bring up security.
I’m not impressed by name droppers. I’ve encountered a few in my life and - in my experience - rather than impressing me with their importance, I walk away being convinced of their own insecurity and lack of surety about themselves.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Labour are on 202 seats so about the same as the Tories were after the boundary changes after 2005.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
The Tories would have been up twelve seats on the new boundaries, so 210 seats as opposed to 198 and higher than what Labour achieved in GE2019:
Joe Kennedy is probably having mixed emotions tonight.
He shouldn't, Sanders is now likely to be the eventual nominee after Biden's collapse (maybe with Buttigieg as VP nominee), then Trump is likely to be re elected. If Joe Kennedy wins the Massachusetts Senate race in November he will be ideally placed to follow in his great uncle's footsteps (and where his grandfather just missed out on following his assassination) in 2024
I’m not sure “just missed out” covers a failure to win the nomination after being assassinated!
Bobby Kennedy won the California primary the night he was shot but obviously he then did not get the nomination even his death was the likely but not certain cause (Humphrey may still have got it at the convention)
"A spokeswoman for Mr Trump's re-election campaign attacked Mrs Pelosi on Twitter, writing: "Her hatred for @realdonaldtrump has blinded her to the repulsive nature of her smug, elitist behavior."
It's the meme of our times: politicians who are really elitist themselves managing to portray their opponents as that very thing whilst garnering the white working class vote.
I'd bet £100,000 on Trump's re-election. Not that I have it, in case anyone comes back with an offer.
Here's how it works: If you are very rich or a politician then you are a smug elitist. If you are a very rich politician who says racist stuff and can't (or pretends not to be able to) spell then you are anti-elitist. "I can't be a member of the elite: look I'm a racist moron" seems to convince enough people.
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Labour are on 202 seats so about the same as the Tories were after the boundary changes after 2005.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
The Tories would have been up twelve seats on the new boundaries, so 210 seats as opposed to 198 and higher than what Labour achieved in GE2019:
Yet that 12 seat difference is largely irrelevant as Labour have more coalition partners with the SNP (who have 48 seats), the LDs, Plaid, Lucas etc, the Tories only had Clegg's LDs and the DUP.
The Tories failed to win a majority in 2010 so in the end Clegg going with Cameron not Brown was decisive
The evening I spent drinking with Marianne Faithful was one of the most fun times I’ve had...
Sadly I can’t remember that much 😂
As I was saying to Michelle Obama the other day over dinner, I’m not a name dropper..
She came to speak to the union when I was at university - the president knew I was a fan of hers and took me out for dinner with her.
That make you feel more secure?
Interesting you bring up security.
I’m not impressed by name droppers. I’ve encountered a few in my life and - in my experience - rather than impressing me with their importance, I walk away being convinced of their own insecurity and lack of surety about themselves.
You do it a lot. So perhaps reflect on that.
To be fair, Charles only meets people who are famous.....
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Labour are on 202 seats so about the same as the Tories were after the boundary changes after 2005.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
The Tories would have been up twelve seats on the new boundaries, so 210 seats as opposed to 198 and higher than what Labour achieved in GE2019:
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Buttigieg leads in delegates Sanders leads in the popular vote I think that is how Iowa ends up.
Buttigieg now has to win New Hampshire's primary next week to get the nomination really, if Sanders wins New Hampshire he knocks out Warren then Biden likely wins South Carolina and Sanders goes into Super Tuesday with the left liberal vote largely united behind him and the centrist vote split between Buttigieg and Biden
What's going on there? It seems rather careless to sack the incumbent, apparently for no reason, and then have your star replacement and your plan B turn it down.
Gove now likeliest, as I said yesterday.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Although it should be noted Cameron gained far more seats than Johnson in his first election, and did pretty well in his second too.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I evious elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
But, the Tories sorted themselves out - and they also did better than Labour last year because the 2005 results were on the old boundaries and they were at 210 seats on the new ones.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
Labour are on 202 seats so about the same as the Tories were after the boundary changes after 2005.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
The Tories would have been up twelve seats on the new boundaries, so 210 seats as opposed to 198 and higher than what Labour achieved in GE2019:
No as the next general election is quite likely to be a hung parliament if 2010 is a guide so it will all be about which coalition partners Starmer and Boris can deal with
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Buttigieg leads in delegates Sanders leads in the popular vote I think that is how Iowa ends up.
Buttigieg now has to win New Hampshire's primary next week to get the nomination really, if Sanders wins New Hampshire he knocks out Warren then Biden likely wins South Carolina and Sanders goes into Super Tuesday with the left liberal vote largely united behind him and the centrist vote split between Buttigieg and Biden
The interesting question is whether Bloomberg can conjure up momentum out of the maelstrom of all that.
He’s not a player in any of those early contests, and still polling below 10% in the Super Tuesday primaries, so the question is whether the narrative is set by then and he’s left way behind, or whether he can push himself head and shoulders above the rest out of a divided middle and set a new narrative.
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Buttigieg leads in delegates Sanders leads in the popular vote I think that is how Iowa ends up.
Buttigieg now has to win New Hampshire's primary next week to get the nomination really, if Sanders wins New Hampshire he knocks out Warren then Biden likely wins South Carolina and Sanders goes into Super Tuesday with the left liberal vote largely united behind him and the centrist vote split between Buttigieg and Biden
The interesting question is whether Bloomberg can conjure up momentum out of the maelstrom of all that.
He’s not a player in any of those early contests, and still polling below 10% in the Super Tuesday primaries, so the question is whether the narrative is set by then and he’s left way behind, or whether he can push himself head and shoulders above the rest out of a divided middle and set a new narrative.
If he does that further splits the centrist vote and boosts Sanders
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Buttigieg leads in delegates Sanders leads in the popular vote I think that is how Iowa ends up.
Buttigieg now has to win New Hampshire's primary next week to get the nomination really, if Sanders wins New Hampshire he knocks out Warren then Biden likely wins South Carolina and Sanders goes into Super Tuesday with the left liberal vote largely united behind him and the centrist vote split between Buttigieg and Biden
The interesting question is whether Bloomberg can conjure up momentum out of the maelstrom of all that.
He’s not a player in any of those early contests, and still polling below 10% in the Super Tuesday primaries, so the question is whether the narrative is set by then and he’s left way behind, or whether he can push himself head and shoulders above the rest out of a divided middle and set a new narrative.
Assuming that Bloomberg is only in the race to stop Sanders, I wonder if a convincing win for Buttigieg in New Hampshire - and maybe Nevada as well - convinces him to withdraw and endorse Pete? Possibly at an optimal point just before Super Tuesday, to maximise the impact.
I'm also wondering at what point Biden gives up. Presumably not before SC (his first "guaranteed" win), but possibly soon after unless he secures a thumping victory there.
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Thank you. So the de facto winner is Trump?
Not sure. If Donald Trump has any sense, he won't want to be facing Pete Buttigieg. He now has a clearly-signposted route through to the nomination, if he's able to take it. His weaknesses are not ones that Donald Trump can easily exploit.
Pete Buttigieg's route remains complicated though. Much depends on the sturdiness of Joe Biden's support.
The evening I spent drinking with Marianne Faithful was one of the most fun times I’ve had...
Sadly I can’t remember that much 😂
As I was saying to Michelle Obama the other day over dinner, I’m not a name dropper..
She came to speak to the union when I was at university - the president knew I was a fan of hers and took me out for dinner with her.
That make you feel more secure?
Interesting you bring up security.
I’m not impressed by name droppers. I’ve encountered a few in my life and - in my experience - rather than impressing me with their importance, I walk away being convinced of their own insecurity and lack of surety about themselves.
Comments
https://twitter.com/jakemerci/status/1224822697949044738
but the real question is will Pete have picket any momentum from tonight? I think he might well have,
Worth noting that this strategy gives SLab a little more weight in the process. If they’d chosen to organise along Westminster boundaries there’d be only 59 Scottish CLPs, but by using Holyrood boundaries, they have 73 Scottish CLPs. They’re not as daft as they look!
Digging into the results a bit … The largest county where all precincts are reporting is Iowa County. Clinton won this county 51 to 49 percent in 2016, and this year it was also an extremely close race: Buttigieg and Warren each got 26 percent of the state delegate equivalents there, while Sanders got 24 percent and Biden got 20 percent. Now, it probably wasn’t the same voters as 2016, and the voters probably didn’t break down this neatly, but it’s worth noting that the sum of Sanders and Warren’s shares this year almost exactly equal Sanders’s share in 2016.
I'm still in a giant one with Bloomberg though.
https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/lucy-boynton-marianne-faithfull-biopic-947385/
#dirtycheatingbastards
Even more sure that Trump's going to win huge.
It's the meme of our times: politicians who are really elitist themselves managing to portray their opponents as that very thing whilst garnering the white working class vote.
I'd bet £100,000 on Trump's re-election. Not that I have it, in case anyone comes back with an offer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51381258
Well, I think I might have to stay out of leadership betting in the future. Except maybe on the Lib Dems. They, at least, have the good manners to let me finish ahead.
Former Mayor Pete? Love how when he talks he copies Obama in both cadence and finishing each major point with his voice dropping in pitch. I get the impression his politics are more centre ground than some of them (not difficult when you're up against bonkers Bernie) but I don't it matters as the American voter seems to love the Donald.
I’m shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
A shame Hague turned it down. He would have been ideal. Could see it being difficult for Cameron to be inside the tent again though. "This is what a big majority looks like, Dave...."
Dunno what other cities are like but Newcastle is full of ‘Act Now’ posters.
Given how emphatic the victory last month has been, I think people are forgetting just how big a mess the Tories were in in 2005. He was their fourth leader in eight years, and had taken over from somebody appointed basically as a caretaker because the party membership had messed up so spectacularly with their previous choice.
They had won fewer seats and a smaller share of the vote than Labour just have, and even that was a distinct improvement on the two previous elections.
Would Johnson have done better under the same circumstances? Possibly, but it would have been difficult.
I've backed Hamilton have under 20.5 season points finishes at 1.73. I think there are 22 races on the calendar. China is very likely to be cancelled due to the Coronavirus. Vietnam might be too. Japan's a less likely but credible possibility. If any two of those, therefore, get cancelled, the bet wins (or is voided).
If China only is cancelled that means the bet wins with a single DNF.
Sadly I can’t remember that much 😂
She clearly presided over a complete mess. At some point it doesn’t matter who’s fault that is. The boss gets sacked.
10 years after losing office, is there any sign of Labour doing the same?
That make you feel more secure?
Environmentalism should be taken seriously, XR not so much.
A brand image can be greatly tarnished by the behaviour of the proprietor, or those who purport to represent them.
Plus even if a Labour majority is unlikely in 2023/24 as the Tories failed to win a majority in 2010, the Tories still ended up with enough seats to form a coalition with the LDs and a Starmer led Labour Party would have both the SNP and the LDs as potential coalition partners.
The Tories got 32% in 2005, the same as Labour got last year, Cameron only took the Tories up to 36% in 2010 remember and it is not impossible to see Starmer doing the same
I’m not impressed by name droppers. I’ve encountered a few in my life and - in my experience - rather than impressing me with their importance, I walk away being convinced of their own insecurity and lack of surety about themselves.
You do it a lot. So perhaps reflect on that.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05280
If you are very rich or a politician then you are a smug elitist. If you are a very rich politician who says racist stuff and can't (or pretends not to be able to) spell then you are anti-elitist. "I can't be a member of the elite: look I'm a racist moron" seems to convince enough people.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html
Bernie Sanders could still overhaul him in theory, but he's running out of road and there is nothing in the latest batch of results to suggest that the initial batch was atypical of the rest.
For Bernie Sanders to overtake Pete Buttigieg now, he'd need to poll about 4% better than Pete Buttigieg in the remaining precincts. Given how scattered the vote has been in the rest of the results and how close the vote has been everywhere, that seems implausible.
Now do you see? The hard left don’t care about winning
The Tories failed to win a majority in 2010 so in the end Clegg going with Cameron not Brown was decisive
Buttigieg now has to win New Hampshire's primary next week to get the nomination really, if Sanders wins New Hampshire he knocks out Warren then Biden likely wins South Carolina and Sanders goes into Super Tuesday with the left liberal vote largely united behind him and the centrist vote split between Buttigieg and Biden
Not hard to believe that those who move in certain social circles meet famous people more often than others.
I'm also surprised this is a line of conversation when I have a fascinating virus-based tip on the 2020 F1 season.
He’s not a player in any of those early contests, and still polling below 10% in the Super Tuesday primaries, so the question is whether the narrative is set by then and he’s left way behind, or whether he can push himself head and shoulders above the rest out of a divided middle and set a new narrative.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51381625
https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker/status/1224944990423355394
(I think Shakespeare was one of the offenders).
I'm also wondering at what point Biden gives up. Presumably not before SC (his first "guaranteed" win), but possibly soon after unless he secures a thumping victory there.
Pete Buttigieg's route remains complicated though. Much depends on the sturdiness of Joe Biden's support.