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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

This appears to be based on the proportion of delegates that were elected. These are provisional and there are others results still to come

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TheScreamingEagles

First like Mayor Pete.

Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

I am Nostradamus reincarnated.

HYUFD

Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates so far, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

AramintaMoonbeamQC

CNN have the map - Pete's support very broad, right across the state. He's played an absolute blinder here.

TheScreamingEagles

Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

First like Mayor Pete.

Told you all to lay the old dudes in this race.

I am Nostradamus reincarnated.

Doesn't that make you a very old dude?

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224817488833196032?s=20

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

speedy2

We don't know who won.
Because we don't know where that 38% remaining is from.

TheWhiteRabbit

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

That's possible. But difficult.

Endillion

Klobuchar seems to have done pretty well, also. Her and Pete seems like a good ticket, although it would make more sense with her leading it.

speedy2

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Second alignment.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/iowa

Stereotomy

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

WaPo seems to think it's final alignment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/iowa/

Richard_Nabavi

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

rottenborough

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point [Edit: But wrong!]

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

Yes, thanks everyone.

Warren doing a little better than expected, then compared to last night.

DavidL

This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

TheWhiteRabbit

Made almost as much money in the ten seconds between CNN updating their website API and their coverage as the whole of last night and beforehand...

FrancisUrquhart

MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

TheWhiteRabbit

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

South Carolina is his target, because it tests his support with African-Americans

Stereotomy

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Uhhh

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

TheWhiteRabbit

FrancisUrquhart said:

MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

Surely he'd have wanted this headline yesterday!!

MarqueeMark

So have the Dems retrieved the mess of last night - or compounded it?

Pulpstar

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

rottenborough

Trump's troops making their move?

https://twitter.com/davestwittylife/status/1224819556612374528

Foxy

FrancisUrquhart said:

MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

Knowing how to fix elections?

Dems need that man...

Kevin_McCandless

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Sanders will win New Hampshire. Has a good shot at Nevada on the 22nd. If he doesn't do badly in South Carolina on the 29th, that sets him up well for the big day on 3 March.

Stereotomy

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Buttigieg narrowly ahead of Sanders on state delegates, note not the same as the percentage of the vote https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1224816239803092992?s=20

Worth remembering that this means that Sanders needs to be six percentage points ahead in the remaining 39% to win.

That's possible. But difficult.

I make it less than that. There are 760 SDEs left up for grabs, Sanders trails by 25. That's 3.3%.

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20

rottenborough

And when do when get the other 30%?

Alistair

Backed Pete earlier today in Iowa. Now laid it off for a profit.

Pete was being way, way, way, waaaay too confident for someone who didn't have a chance and 3.1 was a great price.

Stereotomy

Foxy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MSNBC banging on about all the connections between Mayor Pete campaign and the app developer. Awks.

Knowing how to fix elections?

Dems need that man...

Apparently not. He obviously should have spent more time chatting to his friend from the Office of Transition Initiatives.

speedy2

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

Foxy

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Alistair

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

tyson

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1224820739750158336?s=20

seanT has reinvented himself again......

Alistair

My Girl The Big Liz still in this thing.

HYUFD

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Hardly, Sanders has just won the popular vote in Iowa and is ahead in New Hampshire and was closing in on Biden in SC with Buttigieg under 10%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224731934510714881?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223957648107851777?s=20

Richard_Nabavi

Amy Klobuchar hasn't done too badly on these results: 12.6% of delegates is pretty respectable when the three leaders are on 18% to 27%. Enough to stay in the race? Maybe, if Joe decides this isn't going anywhere for him.

rottenborough

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

NPR has SDEs. That is the state delegates isn't it? It's all a bit confusing after a couple of glasses of wine.

Stereotomy

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

Alistair

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.

Foxy

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

I have greened out. Sanders was far too short earlier today.

I am not at all convinced by these state polls.

speedy2

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

TheScreamingEagles

So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

tyson

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Kevin_McCandless

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Alistair

DavidL said:

This surely puts Biden in the last chance saloon, and possibly out the door altogether. If he isn’t a winner what’s the point? He has absolutely nothing else to offer.

He drops of very precipitously very fast. I've seen some focus group results that suggest he is strong with African Americans because they believe in his electabilty more than anything else and his strength with African Americans adds to his aura of electibilty to other groups.

One crack and that all goes. He could be ceasing campaigning within days.

rottenborough

Alistair said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

And that's why I locked in the profit on Mayor Pete.

Likewise.

Not a bad evening's work. Friday curry paid for.

TheWhiteRabbit

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking

Pulpstar

Kevin_McCandless said:

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Foxy

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

speedy2

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

rottenborough

Buttigieg had his field ops in places no one had ever heard of iirc.

Looks like the rural votes have come in, judging by the maps. But I'm no expert on Iowa countryside.

Stereotomy

speedy2 said:

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

Yes, which also damages the actual winner, compared to the results just coming out as they were supposed to.

rottenborough

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

Sanders-Klobuchar is a losing ticket. Why would someone who might win saddle herself to a loser?

TheGreenMachine

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

2 & 3 , I fancy them.

1, not so much.

rottenborough

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Momentum is what matters in first two states.

MikeSmithson

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120

SandyRentool

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Just say " Buttplug" in a confident way, and see how many people follow you in...

rottenborough

BF - sanders 3; Buttigieg 1.4

Stereotomy

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.

rcs1000

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking

That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.

tyson

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

I agree on the sentiment- but Bernie stands a better chance of winning if he comes through on the sidelines rather than a frontman...

rottenborough

Anyone know when we get the result of the results? Not worth staying up much longer.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Or just keep him as Booty-gig.

"It's the Booty-gig economy, stupid....."

rottenborough

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1224823832659333120

Looks like you called 'too old' Biden right Mike. But bigger states to come.

rcs1000

Stereotomy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

If Biden's collapse continues, and if Bernie does end up winning the first three states, South Carolina will be an interesting one.

Bernie won't win Iowa.

There are too many precincts in Buttigieg friendly rural districts.

Alistair

Now would be a terrible time to go over the message archives and pick out what people were saying about who was 100% definetly
guaranteed to win (or not win) the nomination.

I think I have a bad Sanders prediction in there.

Endillion

speedy2 said:

Stereotomy said:

speedy2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1224819318333927424

I'm so annoyed about everyone calling it for Buttigieg on State Delegates on a lead of less than 2% on State Delegates when we don't know what that 38% of votes left is from.

I'm not calling the race and no one should until we know where that vote is from.

This partial result is going to dominate the news cycle and potentially influence subsequent primaries, too.

But it's a giant mess, so any result will be diminished in importance because no one will believe that they are accurate.

Don't agree. The winner (or winner presumptive) is going to be constantly in the news between now and New Hampshire next Tuesday. And Pete is already drawing fire from Trump, which makes him look even better. This might be even better for Pete than if they'd just announced him the winner last night and then moved on.

rcs1000

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

HYUFD

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Not necessarily
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

“Minorities hare him” is not exactly a factual statement...

Stereotomy

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.

speedy2

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Foxy

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

Klobuchar running for Veep nomination at this point. And is strongly ahead.

Sanders-Klobuchar would be a very strong ticket, has both wings of the party.

Klobuchar too much of an opponent off healthcare reform, I think

Though very active on drug pricing, particularly insulin and related items. Amy is more of a gradualist on health care, I can see that playing well in Middle America.

HYUFD

rcs1000 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

He won't mind the race becoming Bernie v Pete too much. Warren did a little too well in Iowa though for his liking

That is Sanders problem. The ideal result for him would be Sanders-Buttigieg-Biden as it would keep two moderates in the race, and drop Warren out.

But Buttigieg-Sanders-Warren is harder because there is the risk that Biden (who has no money) ends up dropping out. In which case you have one moderate (Buttigieg) and two left wingers.

Biden will likely win South Carolina regardless and stay in the race

Endillion

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

Exactly. The AA vote loves Biden because Obama. That feeling won't survive contact with reality going into South Carolina, unless Biden improves drastically in the next few contests. So their votes are all up for grabs.

AndreaParma_82

Labour CLPs nominations at the end of the night...deadline is Feb 14th

https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224822439835664385?s=20

Thornberry picked Brentwood & Ongar and Vale of Glamorgan tonight.

She needs 33 CLPs

speedy2

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

That's why he gets 0% of African Am.
His record is a lead weight.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Not necessarily
//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
/twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20

Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Not that I'm getting ahead of myself but I'm trying to work out the odds of Liverpool achieving the following this season

1) Completing the PL, CL, and FA Cup, treble
2) Getting over 100 points
3) Going unbeaten in the PL

If all three happen then I will be positively unbearable*.

*More so than usual.

It's a fair Kop...

rottenborough

speedy2 said:

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Thanks. Probably not Pete country?

Nigelb

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

tyson said:

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/CillizzaCNN/status/1224816296195502081?s=20

Looks like the first alignment figures to me

Good point.

Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?

If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?

Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.

Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.

Stake your money as you choose.

Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.

Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....

Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.

Not necessarily
//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
/twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20

Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...

Next week’s polling will be more interesting, after this result has had a couple of days of media exposure.

FrancisUrquhart

David Cameron's bodyguard sparks panic on BA flight from London to New York when passenger finds loaded Glock pistol he accidentally left in toilets of jet

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7966945/David-Camerons-bodyguard-leaves-gun-jet-toilet.html

brokenwheel

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

South Bend is majority African American?

AndreaParma_82

Situation in the Deputy race

https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1224823709678161923?s=20

Murray nominated by Perthshire South and Kinross and Glasgow Pollock tonight. There should be enough Scottish CLPs left for him to reach 33

Allin-Khan got 4 CLPs tonight: Brentwood and Ongar, North Wiltshire, Wimbledon, Vale of Glamorgan

FrancisUrquhart

Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

rottenborough

speedy2 said:

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Yet Sanders is only just ahead in Polk County. (ie, Des Moine)

rcs1000

speedy2 said:

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.

Foxy

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:

speedy2 said:

Alistair said:

Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
It's all about who else won't be the nominee.

Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City

Yep, and his record in that role is one big reason they hate him.

In 2015 he got 80% of the vote in South Bend. Presumably at least some of the other 20% were Republicans...

rottenborough

Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City

Alistair

speedy2 said:

We have precinct data.
Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie

rcs1000

95/177 precincts in Des Moines have reported. That's 56%, barely different from the 61% reported number for state as a whole.

This implies that Sanders is unlikely to get a meaningful boost from Des Moines being so far underrepresented.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

He’s news, that’s why. Sanders was expected to win.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Watching CNN this evening, seems like Mayor Pete is their favourite candidate. Bigging him up while barely mentioning Sanders or Warren.

The torch is passing to a new generation.

AramintaMoonbeamQC

TheScreamingEagles said:

So I best get learning how to properly pronounce Buttigieg.

Like the t shirts say, Boot Edge Edge.