I’m a bit dubious of that Polish poll even though as a Remainer I should welcome it . That’s an astonishing result . I’d expect a big majority for Remain but 94%.
I do have criticisms of the EU in the inability to sanction countries who sign up for membership then fail to adhere to their agreements . Orban is happy to have had the benefits by way of EU structural funds , an improving economy and then goes round trashing the EU and moving Hungary backwards democratically . And then when the EU criticize his actions he then shouts interference.
Although the UK has sadly left and was a bit awkward at times during its membership it did generally play by the rules .
I don't think it's surprising. They are huge net beneficiaries - why would you turn down 10 billion a year?
So it's all about the cash for you guys? Glad that we cleared that up.
It's a nice sweetener. You think that receiving 10bn euros a year makes the EU less popular?
It helps to know that the taking back control and regaining sovereignty was just bullshit icing on the £350m a week for the NHS. Knowing how attached your political opponents are to actual principles is always useful
I think there's a sizeable risk, the UK government decides the EU isn't offering enough to take on the obligations it also demanding. Time though is on the EU's side. Unless the UK is prepared to not to have an agreement with the EU on anything, ever, it will sooner or later have to meet EU demands. There will be a lot of interests pushing for this in the UK.
And if you going to accept those demands eventually anyway, you might as well take them sooner.
We will end up in a mess if the commentariat in the UK accepts the exact linking of benefits and obligations the EU proposes. The problem for the whole negotiation so far is that the media only discussed the internal politics of the UK side, accepting the EU position as written in stone.
For example, it seems perfectly reasonable that mutual recognition of professional qualifications can be done without free movement of labour. The EU will insist they are linked, but if that is accepted as a necessary linkage, we will not get either. Equally, while a degree of level playing field provisions are usually required in FTAs, what the EU is demanding is unprecedented. If Remainer activists and reporters accept the EU's framing of LPF hoping the UK is bounced into all of it, we will end up with a much harder Brexit.
Indeed, we literally went through this process with the May government and then we got Boris brexit which makes no provision for customs or ongoing trade after 2020. Remainers like FF43 are deluding themselves that the UK will blindly accept whatever the EU is selling. We didn't accept the May prison, and it's highly likely that Boris will go for deal de minimis than accept a changeable level playing field on the whim of the commission or the trade deal being arbitrated by the ECJ.
The May deal was not a prison. It was a better Brexit than we will get. But Remainers were too strategically inept to vote for it. We need to accept there is a Tory government who will operate in certain political limits. Boris is clearly not going to accept LPF requirements above Canada, free movement or permanent EU rights in our waters. We need to work hard to make the EU realise that. EU membership is gone. Soft Brexit is gone. Medium Brexit is gone. We need to fight for Medium-Hard or we will get the Hardest of Hard ones.
On reflection I realise that the reason I'm so upset about Brexit is basically that I'm a sore loser. I'm very competitive and I supported the Remainer team. I enjoyed the fight but didn't like losing.
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
On reflection I realise that the reason I'm so upset about Brexit is basically that I'm a sore loser. I'm very competitive and I supported the Remainer team. I enjoyed the fight but didn't like losing.
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
After the arguments of the last few year kudos for you for writing that.
I hope you're not right about the centre of gravity, but I hope we can all look on the bright side moving forwards.
On reflection I realise that the reason I'm so upset about Brexit is basically that I'm a sore loser. I'm very competitive and I supported the Remainer team. I enjoyed the fight but didn't like losing.
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
On reflection I realise that the reason I'm so upset about Brexit is basically that I'm a sore loser. I'm very competitive and I supported the Remainer team. I enjoyed the fight but didn't like losing.
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
Good for you.
That's a very generous post, and can't have been easy to write, and I appreciate it.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
Thanks.
There's always hope. If Buttigieg becomes the Come Back Kid, then I am buying a new iphone.
So Thornabry is at 9 CLPs out of 218, less than the 5% threshold still and with about 1/3 of CLPs now having nominated it looks like she is going to be borderline, at to whether she gets on the final ballot. and close to impossible to see her winning.
Would it not be more dignified to drop out now? or is there something I'm not seeing?
I think there's a sizeable risk, the UK government decides the EU isn't offering enough to take on the obligations it also demanding. Time though is on the EU's side. Unless the UK is prepared to not to have an agreement with the EU on anything, ever, it will sooner or later have to meet EU demands. There will be a lot of interests pushing for this in the UK.
And if you going to accept those demands eventually anyway, you might as well take them sooner.
That post is laced with self-doubt and fear that you might actually be... wrong
So Thornabry is at 9 CLPs out of 218, less than the 5% threshold still and with about 1/3 of CLPs now having nominated it looks like she is going to be borderline, at to whether she gets on the final ballot. and close to impossible to see her winning.
Would it not be more dignified to drop out now? or is there something I'm not seeing?
I have been wondering the same.
Maybe there is the hope that Starmer blows up for some skeleton in the closet?
On reflection I realise that the reason I'm so upset about Brexit is basically that I'm a sore loser. I'm very competitive and I supported the Remainer team. I enjoyed the fight but didn't like losing.
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
The problem with modern social media is that it allows us to wallow in groupthink with like minded people that stops these sort of thoughtful reflections. Kudos to you for doing it nonetheless.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
I must admit I am lost. I fully expected the Dems to do anything - ANYTHING!!! - to win against Trump and in my world electing Bernie as nominee does not fit into that. So what the hell CA dems are thinking is beyond me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
I must admit I am lost. I fully expected the Dems to do anything - ANYTHING!!! - to win against Trump and in my world electing Bernie as nominee does not fit into that. So what the hell CA dems are thinking is beyond me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
Sanders performs better than Klobuchar or Buttigieg in the polling.
So Thornabry is at 9 CLPs out of 218, less than the 5% threshold still and with about 1/3 of CLPs now having nominated it looks like she is going to be borderline, at to whether she gets on the final ballot. and close to impossible to see her winning.
Would it not be more dignified to drop out now? or is there something I'm not seeing?
I have been wondering the same.
Maybe there is the hope that Starmer blows up for some skeleton in the closet?
Unlikely that many more than 500 CLPs will end up nominating . If so, we are almost half way there now!
So Thornabry is at 9 CLPs out of 218, less than the 5% threshold still and with about 1/3 of CLPs now having nominated it looks like she is going to be borderline, at to whether she gets on the final ballot. and close to impossible to see her winning.
Would it not be more dignified to drop out now? or is there something I'm not seeing?
I have been wondering the same.
Maybe there is the hope that Starmer blows up for some skeleton in the closet?
Unlikely that many more than 500 CLPs will end up nominating . If so, we are almost half way there now!
Given the nominations now have a meaning, why wouldn't they all?
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
I must admit I am lost. I fully expected the Dems to do anything - ANYTHING!!! - to win against Trump and in my world electing Bernie as nominee does not fit into that. So what the hell CA dems are thinking is beyond me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
Sanders performs better than Klobuchar or Buttigieg in the polling.
Genuinely LOL.
As @SeanT would probably say, that polling is so shit it invented the flush toilet.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
I must admit I am lost. I fully expected the Dems to do anything - ANYTHING!!! - to win against Trump and in my world electing Bernie as nominee does not fit into that. So what the hell CA dems are thinking is beyond me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
I think its more than that, its also the size of the Tory majority. Hard for the far left to shake the whole "worst election result since 1935" tag - a soundbite like that is damning.
I said pre-election that a hammering is what Labour needed to see reality. Had we had 2017 redux then the far left could argue "one more push" but for Rebecca Wrong Daily to be rating Corbyn's leadership as 10/10 following the "worst result since 1935" is just damning. It makes her look absolutely delusional.
In the meantime - is Sir Keir really a sub 1.4 shot ?
Better, imho. He has a huge CLP lead, and CLP votes are all party members voting. In both of Corbyn's wins the CLPs were fairly accurate for the wider membership, even getting the 1-2-3-4 order perfect in 2015 (not bad on the gaps between each candidate too). Starmer has big leads in YouGov polls even when Phillips was on 10%+ of the vote which is pretty likely to go mostly to him now.
Personally I think his price is only as long as it is thanks to the sparse polling and people not trusting the CLPs as an indicator. I suspect another poll will come out around the time the final ballot is decided (so roughly a fortnight from now) and show his lead similar or larger than before and his price will collapse. I also suspect it will show Nandy still well back in 3rd.
Agree - the people who turn up at nomination meetings seem be a fair guide to the membership. Nandy and RLB need to shake the contest up - at present Starmer is playing it safe, and why wouldn't he?
I've really messed up on Lab leadership. Red on Starmer.
Oh dear.
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
Between this and Bernie, I think we'll have to organise a whip-round for our dear rottenborough.
I must admit I am lost. I fully expected the Dems to do anything - ANYTHING!!! - to win against Trump and in my world electing Bernie as nominee does not fit into that. So what the hell CA dems are thinking is beyond me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I have cut my loses on the Lab race, a 70 quid loss and a lesson learned about try to second guess market movements when you already have an all green position.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
You are probably right. I have no idea why they are fond of him. Honestly, none whatsoever.
He is no Micheal Foot nor Tony Benn. Not even close.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
You are probably right. I have no idea why they are fond of him. Honestly, none whatsoever.
He is no Micheal Foot nor Tony Benn. Not even close.
I always wanted to like Foot, but struggled - he seemed unremittingly stern. Benn was a good diarist and thoughtful, but when I knew him he'd acquired a good deal of vanity - he really liked playing elder statesman. I've knoiwn Corbyn on and off all my adult life - he's not cuddly, but he's my idea of an upright politician - principles 100%, self 0%. Obviously it helps that I agree with most of the principles, but I do like to see ideas put before ego in opponents too (I like Letwin for similar reasons).
Indeed. But I too wondered about the drivers earlier on today, when I saw a picture of one driving, with a guy in a bio suit next to him. Apparently the company said no protective gear was necessary.... but they’d be quarantined for two weeks after the journey.
Day 1 and it's your baby now. Have you a plan to replace trade with the European Union by 2021 yet, or is it still f*** business?
I think the plan is to keep trading.
Funny then that today's media grid is about preparing people for jingoistic customs barriers against all comers.
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. At least now our government in the negotiations can carry a big stick without having their hands tied behind their back by saboteurs back home.
Indeed. But I too wondered about the drivers earlier on today, when I saw a picture of one driving, with a guy in a bio suit next to him. Apparently the company said no protective gear was necessary.... but they’d be quarantined for two weeks after the journey.
Caring employers.
Paid leave though (according to the news this am). I'm assuming it was entirely voluntary, though maybe naive of me.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
Comrade...I don't think you speak holistically for the membership...I've been a member since 1983 and I fucking loathe Corbyn and his pathetic posturing....and his group of acolytes.....
I saw the Corbyn debacle for what it was from the outset...and now with a populist Toy Govt just elected, the hardest of hard Brexits....Corbyn deserves his place in the shithole of fuckups......and that is putting it kindly Nick....
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
Comrade...I don't think you speak holistically for the membership...I've been a member since 1982 and I fucking loathe Corbyn and his pathetic posturing....and his group of acolytes.....
I saw the Corbyn debacle for what it was from the outset...and now with a populist Toy Govt just elected, the hardest of hard Brexits....Corbyn deserves his place in the shithole of fuckups......and that is putting it kindly Nick....
What's the issue? I was told categorically that all Leavers were racist scum.
This sort of thing is why Brexit is happening and why the Remainite Left luvvies will keep on losing. Let's write off 17 million as racists. The reality is most of them probably never even gave the EU a thought before the referendum, it's just become a totem to them as a means of demonstrating that they are in control. How galling it must be for them to have been outwitted and outvoted by a bunch of thick plebs.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
Comrade...I don't think you speak holistically for the membership...I've been a member since 1982 and I fucking loathe Corbyn and his pathetic posturing....and his group of acolytes.....
I saw the Corbyn debacle for what it was from the outset...and now with a populist Toy Govt just elected, the hardest of hard Brexits....Corbyn deserves his place in the shithole of fuckups......and that is putting it kindly Nick....
What's the issue? I was told categorically that all Leavers were racist scum.
This sort of thing is why Brexit is happening and why the Remainite Left luvvies will keep on losing. Let's write off 17 million as racists. The reality is most of them probably never even gave the EU a thought before the referendum, it's just become a totem to them as a means of demonstrating that they are in control. How galling it must be for them to have been outwitted and outvoted by a bunch of thick plebs.
What's the issue? I was told categorically that all Leavers were racist scum.
This sort of thing is why Brexit is happening and why the Remainite Left luvvies will keep on losing. Let's write off 17 million as racists. The reality is most of them probably never even gave the EU a thought before the referendum, it's just become a totem to them as a means of demonstrating that they are in control. How galling it must be for them to have been outwitted and outvoted by a bunch of thick plebs.
What's the issue? I was told categorically that all Leavers were racist scum.
This sort of thing is why Brexit is happening and why the Remainite Left luvvies will keep on losing. Let's write off 17 million as racists. The reality is most of them probably never even gave the EU a thought before the referendum, it's just become a totem to them as a means of demonstrating that they are in control. How galling it must be for them to have been outwitted and outvoted by a bunch of thick plebs.
Yes indeed. It is really annoying
Happy Independence Day, Bev
Thank you Sunil, but you are about 2 weeks too late - it was 21st Jan.
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
I think that those who dislike Corbyn understimated the extent to which the membership are fond of him personally, rather than automatically up for any left-wing candidate. The reaction to the PLP putsch really cemented that Now he's moving on, the normal range of centre-left opinion is reasserting itself.
You are probably right. I have no idea why they are fond of him. Honestly, none whatsoever.
He is no Micheal Foot nor Tony Benn. Not even close.
I always wanted to like Foot, but struggled - he seemed unremittingly stern. Benn was a good diarist and thoughtful, but when I knew him he'd acquired a good deal of vanity - he really liked playing elder statesman. I've knoiwn Corbyn on and off all my adult life - he's not cuddly, but he's my idea of an upright politician - principles 100%, self 0%. Obviously it helps that I agree with most of the principles, but I do like to see ideas put before ego in opponents too (I like Letwin for similar reasons).
Surprised you felt that about Michael Foot. Everybody I have come across who met him have commented on how nice a guy he was.
The last Des Moines Register poll had the top four candidates within six points of each other.
In the last two weeks, we've had Sanders move out in front of the other candidates, moving (in most polls) to 20-25% of the vote.
Biden is probably just below that. While Buttigieg is averaging 17-18%, Warren 15-16%, and Klobuchar is probably now in double digits.
There are two crucial questions now:
1. Where do second choices from Steyer, Bloomberg, Yang, Gabbard and the like go? (And in how many places is Warren viable? The more viable she is, the harder Sanders' job is. The same is true of Klobuchar: if she's viable everywhere, then that's bad news for Buttigeg and Biden who were relying on picking up her second preferences.)
2. How many of Biden's slightly less politically engaged voters turn up to caucuses? And how well organised is he on the ground? He's the natural candidate of the moderate stream, and should be the compromise candidate for moderates who's preferred option doesn't make the cut. But if he doesn't have people on the ground, or if Buttigieg or Klobuchar supporters outnumber his, then it might be they who become the moderate champion.
My guess would be that the combined Sanders + Warren total remains around 37%, with Warren dropping three, and Sanders gaining three.
The total Buttigieg + Biden + Klobuchar total is likely to rise three points due to the departure of Booker from the race. Klobuchar, however, is likely to have been the main benificary, and to have picked up from Buttigieg too. So I'm guessing:
Comments
Way behind in remainersville
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1223367071372926976?s=20
First the Filmore & Union closes.
Then House of Fraser shuts down.
Now this!
I'd have liked to stay in the EU but there were things about the EU that I didn't like. The CAP policy for the benefit of French farmers. The appalling treatment of Greece and the confiscation of their assets (ports and airfields etc) driven by Wolfgang Schäuble with an ultra austerity policy. So I'm happy to make the most of being outside the EU.
I'm also quite happy with Boris so far. He seems to be sticking two fingers up to Trump on Huawei and taxing US multinationals. I hope, having escaped the yoke of the EU he doesn't accept the yoke of the US. He's also following a Corbyn economic policy which I approve of. Corbyn might have failed but he's moved the centre of gravity of economic policy leftwards. Nationalising Northern Rail. Borrowing vast amounts (at low interest rates) to invest in infrastructure. Levelling up. It's not all bad.
Come on HY, admit it!
"A man was killed today after being shot with a starting pistol Police believe its race related "
Gets coat!!
I think he is very likely to win and his odds are likely to continue to shorten.
Sorry
I hope you're not right about the centre of gravity, but I hope we can all look on the bright side moving forwards.
That's a very generous post, and can't have been easy to write, and I appreciate it.
There's always hope. If Buttigieg becomes the Come Back Kid, then I am buying a new iphone.
https://twitter.com/DavidB45212563/status/1223222419328000000?s=20
Would it not be more dignified to drop out now? or is there something I'm not seeing?
Has the stomach pump been successful?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223732659060387842/photo/1
Maybe there is the hope that Starmer blows up for some skeleton in the closet?
https://www.twitter.com/KathyBurke/status/1223166540058648578
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/01/nigel-farage-wont-join-donald-trumps-presidential-campaign-ensure/
And I also expected the Labour membership to take one more run around the chairs before deciding that electability was a factor.
Oh shit, they're all white.....
As @SeanT would probably say, that polling is so shit it invented the flush toilet.
I said pre-election that a hammering is what Labour needed to see reality. Had we had 2017 redux then the far left could argue "one more push" but for Rebecca Wrong Daily to be rating Corbyn's leadership as 10/10 following the "worst result since 1935" is just damning. It makes her look absolutely delusional.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223734329806925824?s=20
He is no Micheal Foot nor Tony Benn. Not even close.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwBigliX1Bo
But I too wondered about the drivers earlier on today, when I saw a picture of one driving, with a guy in a bio suit next to him.
Apparently the company said no protective gear was necessary.... but they’d be quarantined for two weeks after the journey.
Caring employers.
And all the better for leaving your question at the end unanswered.
Oh the terrible position on Labour leader betting? Fair play
I saw the Corbyn debacle for what it was from the outset...and now with a populist Toy Govt just elected, the hardest of hard Brexits....Corbyn deserves his place in the shithole of fuckups......and that is putting it kindly Nick....
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1223726604901371905?s=20
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1223723899277410309
Boris as Action Man?
https://twitter.com/katieglueck/status/1223753579930038272
I'm holding on to solid pieces of furniture in the belief that in general Dem primary voters aren't going to do this.
If the electorate is that fragmented, wouldn't it be better to have an electoral system that recognised it?
We're lucky. We had a government that got a proper electoral mandate with a decent vote share.
But imagine if a government got a majority on less than a quarter of the vote?
(I must admit, I also quite like the Irish system, because it allows for a reasonable number of independents.)
The last Des Moines Register poll had the top four candidates within six points of each other.
In the last two weeks, we've had Sanders move out in front of the other candidates, moving (in most polls) to 20-25% of the vote.
Biden is probably just below that. While Buttigieg is averaging 17-18%, Warren 15-16%, and Klobuchar is probably now in double digits.
There are two crucial questions now:
1. Where do second choices from Steyer, Bloomberg, Yang, Gabbard and the like go? (And in how many places is Warren viable? The more viable she is, the harder Sanders' job is. The same is true of Klobuchar: if she's viable everywhere, then that's bad news for Buttigeg and Biden who were relying on picking up her second preferences.)
2. How many of Biden's slightly less politically engaged voters turn up to caucuses? And how well organised is he on the ground? He's the natural candidate of the moderate stream, and should be the compromise candidate for moderates who's preferred option doesn't make the cut. But if he doesn't have people on the ground, or if Buttigieg or Klobuchar supporters outnumber his, then it might be they who become the moderate champion.
The total Buttigieg + Biden + Klobuchar total is likely to rise three points due to the departure of Booker from the race. Klobuchar, however, is likely to have been the main benificary, and to have picked up from Buttigieg too. So I'm guessing: The thing is, this is still incredibly unpredictable. Simply, there will be an awful lot of second choices to redistribute.
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 33% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-2)
BREX: 3% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @Survation