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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big worry for Trump is that his disapproval ratings remain

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  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,270
    edited January 2020
    speedy2 said:

    Not sure this is as nuanced as it could be....”anger” just makes us look impotent....

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1213224476533559297?s=20

    I would advise silence.
    Trump maybe bad but for Britain he is our only ally.

    As long as he doesn't blow up people in a fit he is still better than irish Joe Biden for Britain.

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/01/16/joe-biden-designated-mourner/

    Biden identifies with his fanatically anti-english aunt, which even told him bedtime stories about the Evil British.
    Given Biden is a man stuck in the far past that's a big problem for Britain.
    Were it not for the Evil British the Bidens would still be trotting the bog, instead of cutting megadeals in the Ukraine. If they should ever wish to return there I'm sure they'd be welcome.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:

    This is really interesting is Kieth Vaz's old seat of Leicester East. 58% Asian but voted 54% LEAVE.

    I remember people in here being shocked at how big of a swing it saw to Con. With many saying it was down to the Con candidate being Asian and the Lab candidate being white, but now I think it is more to do with the high Leave vote.

    Are there any other Leave seats where it looks like the British Asian population voted Leave?

    Claudia Webbe is not white.

    I think there was a low turnout of BME voters in the Brexit referendum, but also Leave did target Asian communities with promises of making RoW immigration easier. Certainly some of my Philipino friends fell for that. Not quite what was promised Brexit voters in Hartlepool of course, but we shall soon find out who is disappointed.

    Keith Vaz also had a large personal vote, having pork barrelled very actively over the years.
    Claudia Webbe is not white but is an outsider, parachuted in by the party establishment caysung great ructions in the local party. It may be the case that in established minority communities like that in Leicester East, individuals are more important than parties to a greayer degree than usual.
    Webbe does have Leicester roots, but there was indeed much to do with the way she was parachuted in by the NEC. As well as the usual resentments of any imposed candidate common to all local parties, there was a feeling by the Asian community that this was to be an Asian candidate. While on the one hand this seems rather possessive, none of the other Leicester seats have an Asian MP. It is also easy to underestimate the amount of racism against West Indians amongst some Asian communities.

    There is also the straightforward fact that Webbe is an awful candidate and as mad as a box of frogs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    The bar for all the candidates to beat will be the 4.5% Liz Kendall got I suppose.

    Although weirdly I remember her being in the race more than Burnham, who came second.
    But why do you remember Kendall being in the race ?

    For me her big achievement was being referred to as the 'Blair Witch Project' by BigJohnOwls.
    I suspect for two reasons - one, I believe she was the first to announce, and did so in a refreshingly direct way when asked if she would stand, rather than be coy about it, and two, she was the best looking of the candidates.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253
    edited January 2020
    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    It is an interesting endorsement by Bastiani and I note that Abbott is backing Lewis.

    RLB doesn't look as if she has much support to me.

    I think Jess is far away the best candidate, and has had a great launch. She will do well at the hustings as the only candidate with charisma.
  • All these ladies standing to be Labour leader.... Great stuff but the golden rule with Labour is its always a bloke..... We all know that....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    kle4 said:

    The bar for all the candidates to beat will be the 4.5% Liz Kendall got I suppose.

    Although weirdly I remember her being in the race more than Burnham, who came second.
    But why do you remember Kendall being in the race ?

    For me her big achievement was being referred to as the 'Blair Witch Project' by BigJohnOwls.
    Yes, we should not forget Labour's traditional misogyny as exemplified by BJO. We may see it again, but on the other hand the cavemen may well no longer be a majority.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    MattW said:

    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

    What's wrong with gender? Was feminism on the Brexit ballot paper too?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    speedy2 said:

    Not sure this is as nuanced as it could be....”anger” just makes us look impotent....

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1213224476533559297?s=20

    I would advise silence.
    Trump maybe bad but for Britain he is our only ally.

    As long as he doesn't blow up people in a fit he is still better than irish Joe Biden for Britain.

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2020/01/16/joe-biden-designated-mourner/

    Biden identifies with his fanatically anti-english aunt, which even told him bedtime stories about the Evil British.
    Given Biden is a man stuck in the far past that's a big problem for Britain.
    Were it not for the Evil British the Bidens would still be trotting the bog, instead of cutting megadeals in the Ukraine. If they should ever wish to return there I'm sure they'd be welcome.
    Racist.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Foxy said:

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

    The difference is that Iran will retaliate over these killings, while the UK let's it's own citizens be poisoned and our foreign policy apparatus does little more than huffing and puffing.
  • Foxy said:

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

    Remote drone technology now is not new and must be in the grasp of any nation state. What happens when they get their stuff together and start taking out western politicians? I think the rot set in under Obama and while not starting it, normalised it.
  • MattW said:

    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

    I don’t get annoyed by the BBC and their woke agenda grinding stuff anymore. Tv license has been cancelled (expired end of December), anything from the BBC I I want I unlawfully download using torrents etc, my aerial is unplugged. No live tv, no BBC radio output anymore (former avid r5 listener, now LBC and absolute, )

    The BBC is in a death spiral, and they know it Youth don’t watch it when it’s free, they certainly won’t pay for it on leaving home, working people resent it and the oldies blame it for removing the over 75s exemption.

    Put Cummings in charge of funding agreement.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    If the presidential election was yesterday I would say that Trump would probably have won.

    Here is the state polling average of Trump's lead vs the Top 3 Democrats:

    Texas +6
    Iowa +5
    Florida +2
    Michigan +2
    Wisconsin +1
    N.Carolina 0
    Arizona 0
    Georgia -1
    Virginia -2
    Nevada -4
    N.Hampshire -5
    Pennsylvania -5

    No polls from Ohio, but looking at Pennsylvania he probably lead by 2 points.
    Only Georgia and Virginia look way out of line.

    If Trump wins all the states that he is either tied or leading, plus Georgia he gets 285 Electoral Votes.

    But the Biden-Ukraine and Iran War stuff is not a sign that Trump thinks he is going to win, those are acts of a campaign that is desperate.

    I'm not that convinced by the state polls yet.

    Pennsylvania looks far too good for the Democrats, while Wisconsin, where the Democratic Lesbian Senator got more votes than Trump in the midterms (which is unprecedented) looks implausibly Republican (especially given state approval ratings).

    Given how terribly Trump and the GOP are doing in upstate N.Y. I think it's true, Trump is really doing as badly as Bush W. in the north east.

    The Wisconsin polls were very reputable, but the Georgia polls were not weighted by education.
    Here's the thing, though. If you look at Senators who won election in 2018, only one of them got more votes than the President had got in 2016: Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. If you go back to 2014, 2010 or 2006, in no case (at the midterms) did a Senator outpoll the President's votes (in absolute terms) from two years before.

    This tells you that it was not that Donald Trump was particularly popular in Wisconsin, but that Hillary Clinton was very unpopular. Given that Trump is registering -14 favourables in the State, which is worse than his national numbers, it's hard to see how he holds it.

    Unless, of course, the Democrats pick someone completely unelectable. Ahhh....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,253
    EPG said:

    MattW said:

    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

    What's wrong with gender? Was feminism on the Brexit ballot paper too?
    Go on then ... explain the aspects of the Dead Terrorist Leader killed by Trump story, which require Gender Analysis. :smile:

    Waiting...
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    HYUFD said:
    Lots of elderly in Florida, making them uncomfortable with gays, women or socialists as president.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836

    Foxy said:

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

    Remote drone technology now is not new and must be in the grasp of any nation state. What happens when they get their stuff together and start taking out western politicians? I think the rot set in under Obama and while not starting it, normalised it.
    Obama never took out state actors.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    MattW said:

    EPG said:

    MattW said:

    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

    What's wrong with gender? Was feminism on the Brexit ballot paper too?
    Go on then ... explain the aspects of the Dead Terrorist Leader killed by Trump story, which require Gender Analysis. :smile:

    Waiting...
    Maybe he was wearing a burqa?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    EPG said:

    MattW said:

    Watching BBC News 24 on Iraq.

    Their chosen expert on the politics is one Azadeh Moaveni, who is a "Senior Gender Analyst" at the ICG.

    If you want to know why News 24 is gone to hell in a handcart...

    At least they will get the crucial Layla Moran related bits with the right buzzwords. Duh.

    What's wrong with gender? Was feminism on the Brexit ballot paper too?
    In effect, the entire gamut of identity politics was on the ballot.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Gossip update.

    Our current PM's current squeeze is preggers.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Lots of elderly in Florida, making them uncomfortable with gays, women or socialists as president.
    Considering Trump is much more popular in Florida than in most of the rust belt, those are good numbers for the Dems.

    They also confirm that Biden is the most electable candidate, while Warren is far and away the least. Buttigieg does rather better than I expected.
  • TOPPING said:

    Gossip update.

    Our current PM's current squeeze is preggers.

    He should have been more careful!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    What they need politically is retaliatory terrorism, I expect they'll get it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127
    TOPPING said:

    Gossip update.

    Our current PM's current squeeze is preggers.

    Is he going to admit to this one, man up and do his duty by his partner and future child?

    Oh, wait...

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA... :(
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

    You think the militias in Iraq are equivalent to what happened in Syria?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited January 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Lots of elderly in Florida, making them uncomfortable with gays, women or socialists as president.
    Considering Trump is much more popular in Florida than in most of the rust belt, those are good numbers for the Dems.

    They also confirm that Biden is the most electable candidate, while Warren is far and away the least. Buttigieg does rather better than I expected.
    All Dems bar Biden polling worse than Hillary in Florida and Warren polling worse than any Democratic candidate in the state since Dukakis is hardly 'good numbers for the Dems'
  • Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    More US assassinations in Iraq tonight.

    We are in an era where death squads and extrajudicial killings acting with impunity in sovereign countries is the norm.

    No wonder Putin could get away with the Salisbury attempt.

    The difference is that Iran will retaliate over these killings, while the UK let's its own citizens be poisoned and our foreign policy apparatus does little more than huffing and puffing.
    Or killed by "diplomats" driving on the wrong side of the road.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Lots of elderly in Florida, making them uncomfortable with gays, women or socialists as president.
    Considering Trump is much more popular in Florida than in most of the rust belt, those are good numbers for the Dems.

    They also confirm that Biden is the most electable candidate, while Warren is far and away the least. Buttigieg does rather better than I expected.
    All Dems bar Biden polling worse than Hillary in Florida and Warren polling worse than any Democratic candidate in the state since Dukakis is hardly 'good numbers for the Dems'
    If you look at Trump's favourable numbers, Florida is a lost cause for the Democrats. He's scoring almost the same there as Texas.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228

    What they need politically is retaliatory terrorism, I expect they'll get it.
    I think you've nailed it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    rcs1000 said:

    Harris and HarrisX both have nationwide polls on the Democratic nomination out today.

    Harris has Bloomberg leapfrogging Buttigieg into fourth (and into double digits).
    HarrisX has Bloomberg getting just 2%.

    Which, I wonder, is right.

    I've got my bets on which one your Dad will be doing a piece on next...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Harris and HarrisX both have nationwide polls on the Democratic nomination out today.

    Harris has Bloomberg leapfrogging Buttigieg into fourth (and into double digits).
    HarrisX has Bloomberg getting just 2%.

    Which, I wonder, is right.

    I've got my bets on which one your Dad will be doing a piece on next...
    I could be completely wrong, but I don't see how Bloomberg gets the nomination.

    Firstly, he makes Biden and Buttigieg look like Socialists.
    Secondly, he's not that popular, even with centrist Democrats.
    Thirdly, if you're looking for a young, fresh face, then well... it's not him, is it?
This discussion has been closed.