We have not had a poll of LAB members since last July so the YouGov chart above is based on the latest data available. Since then, of course, three of those senior party figures tested by the firm are no longer possible runners. Tom Watson has quit being an MP, Laura Pidcock lost her seat at on December 12th while John McDonnell has made his intentions clear.
Thornberry still looks underpriced to me. She's a competent performer, people have actually heard of her, she's said she's standing. And she's still available at around 49/1.
Interesting that Rayner and Long Bailey don’t seem to have high name recognition either.
Since August, the Conservative vote has gone up a tad (+0.82%), the Labour vote has collapsed (-9%) and the Liberal Democrat vote has shot up (+9%), so based on all that, if I was to make an estimate of the general election, I would say the following:
Conservatives 286 seats, Labour 222 seats, Liberal Democrats 66 seats, Scottish National Party 52 seats, Plaid Cymru 3 seats, Independents 2 seats, Green Party 1 seat, Northern Ireland Parties 18.
The others are pretty close though. It forecast the collapse of Labour, if not quite its extent, and the SNP resurgence.
But that needn’t last for ever - there was a party up in Scotland that started out that way and ended up with quite a few seats at Westminster in the last go...
I also think Thornberry is too long at 40-1. If you think it's important to have a woman this time, and think RLB too Corbynist and Philips too negative, then she's actually the ONLY candidate on the radar (unless Dawn Butler tries for it or Rayner runs after all).
IIRC it was famously three quid in 2015, but was changed to be a score (same price as a normal menbership) in 2016?
Can we expect them all to be kicked out?
But Chadsmoor is the one I play with most often. It is also the one with the best action so is much the easiest to play with.
Tories are better than most parties for vetting associates and especially candidates, and any that slip through are quickly removed when it's brought to the attention of the central party. Contrast with another political party, who suspended alleged racists for a few months before quietly reinstating them, when they thought the story had gone quiet.
The mass defection of Britain First supporters confirms the backing of Johnson by far-right figures following his election triumph.
Tommy Robinson, the former leader of the English Defence League, recently told followers on the encrypted messaging service Telegram that he has become a paid-up member.
The leader of Britain First, Paul Golding, also claimed to have joined the Conservatives."
Did you read 386 for 286 ?
What was completely wrong was the (of the top of the head, I reckon) conversion of those factors into parliamentary seats.
Under no circumstances would Con +1% vote share on 2017 result in lost parliamentary seats, especially if Labour was -9%.
It is a publicity stunt by Britain First, don't fall for it.
Shall we say its not the first time LibDem supporters have produced models which overestimate the LibDems and underestimate the Conservatives.
Let's have a VAR-free 2020-2021 season - and then decide if we want it back. My guess is not.
I think the value bet here though is Rayner. If RLB falters or is seen as too bland, then Rayner may be seen as the better option to push.
Dawn Butler? Jeezzz.....
As with everything else, sunlight is the best disinfectant. Show it on the big screen and have the refs with mics that go to the PA system in the stadium. Rugby Union and American Football do this really well.
But you keep on defending the cow bothering nationalists.
Also remind me the number of Muslim-majority countries where gay sex is legal, please?
Current incumbent - no need to elaborate.
Ken MacDonald - repaired his image at the end with his attacks on Tony Blair’s nutty counterterrorism proposals, but was dogged by allegations of corruption throughout his tenure.
David Calvert-Smith - Damilola Taylor (nuff said)
Barbara Mills - Stephen Lawrence (also nuff said)
Allan Green - not only oversaw a series of catastrophes involving Northern Ireland, but was arrested for kerb crawling causing his wife to kill herself.
So I think either we have been quite amazingly unlucky with our choice of DPPs, or there is something in the office that makes it pretty well unmanageable even for highly intelligent, experienced and successful people.
In which case Starmer deserves some credit for being one of the least spattered with the soft and squishy.
So since the CPS was founded in 1986, I agree there is a very good case to be made that Starmer was by far its best chief, and that’s without any starry eyed views on how good he actually was.
Just like every other time football attempts to do something.
But you have to wonder a bit about an organisation that fucks up this often and this spectacularly. One for the lawyers - is it an institutional problem or do lawyers just not make very god chief execs?
And yet he’s still a beacon compared to the rest...
Edit - on checking, there is a Myanmar/Bangladesh border, but it’s very short compared with the India/Myanmar border.
On a similar note, I feel proud to have had my wedding at this place: