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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Leave seat with a miniscule LAB majority that didn’t fall

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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Causation or correlation?
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    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    That is neither arrogant or disdainful, but factual.
    It is indeed factually correct, but the fact is accompanied by rather unpleasant implications about people who didn't go to university (plus a rose-tinted view of those of us who did).
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if anyone wants to bet on Jo Fancyname getting convicted of breach of an animal welfare law, I'm willing to take sizeable bets.

    You're obsessed.
    By making money off the stupidity of others? Yes.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    That is neither arrogant or disdainful, but factual.
    Although it's also skewed by age. Unless you control for the fact that older people are (far) less likely to have degrees, then all you are doing is demonstrating that older people are more likely to have voted for Brexit.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited December 2019
    alex_ said:

    Causation or correlation?

    Fact of life.

    Remember until Thatcher and Major decided to increase the target to 40% of people attending university, attending university was reserved for the academically gifted.

    Now every thicko can attend the University of Lifeshire to read a degree in the history of needlework as a tool of oppression by the patriarchy.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    Why is it unpleasant and arrogant to point out the uneducated voted Leave?
    Quite apart from being unpleasant and arrogant it's just a bit thick. Most people over a certain age would not have had the opportunity to go to university.

    Remoaners aren't anywhere near as clever as they think they are, obviously since with all the inherent advantages you still lost.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited December 2019

    alex_ said:

    Causation or correlation?

    Fact of life.

    Remember until Thatcher and Major decided to increase the target to 40% of people attending university, attending university was reserved for the academically gifted.

    Now every thicko can attend the University of Lifeshire to read a degree in the history of needlework as a tool of oppression by the patriarchy.
    Quite. So if you’re looking for intelligence in the electorate you need focus on the best of the graduates or those that took another path...

    The latter often then breaking the tie break with common sense.
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    Mr. Eagles, I quite like sewing.

    Mended many a glove, and this year learnt how to darn socks. It's quite relaxing.
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    Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, if anyone wants to bet on Jo Fancyname getting convicted of breach of an animal welfare law, I'm willing to take sizeable bets.

    I keep waiting for someone to prosecute the RSPCA for any or all of the following:

    1) Impersonating a police officer

    2) Seizing property without due authority

    3) Animal cruelty (euthanising animals they have seized on spurious grounds)

    4) Perjury

    5) Contempt of court

    6) Breaking the Charities Act 2006 by engaging in political activity not necessary for the furtherance of their charitable aims

    7) Fraud (by pretending to care about animals when they mostly care about themselves).

    All of which, except the last, they bizarrely admit to quite openly, and yet never seem to get prosecuted for.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    Maybe those with the fewest qualifications were most affected by cheap labour from Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and globalisation and wanted to see tighter immigration controls and regained sovereignty, the same explanation for the rise of Trump and the populist right in Europe, Boldonaro or Morrison's re election in Australia etc
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033
    HYUFD said:
    Be fair, his achievements don’t stop there. He as near as bugger it lost his own job as well.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    Why is it unpleasant and arrogant to point out the uneducated voted Leave?
    Depends if you consider an engineering apprenticeship not to be an education and a degree in gender grievance studies to be an education...
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    felix said:

    Bedford may simply be a random oddity not worth wasting time over but perhaps reflecting the continuing tendency of the southern chatterati to think the world revolves around their idiosyncrasies while seeking to sublimate all those Tory gains as somehow aberrant. We may be back to those queues in Battersea on polling day here.

    Except in this case, OGH is wondering why Bedford did not go blue, taking Tory gains as the norm.

    @Cyclefree has posted a link to a paywalled Times article whose title suggests Brexit might have downsides for the newly-blue seats that run on exports to Europe if Boris cannot reach a deal. If correct, well, Boris can shake the magic money tree and create offsetting jobs in time for the next election.
    Ooh! A government spending money to create jobs. Where have we heard that one before?

    Still the novelty this time is that the government has first embarked on a policy to destroy those jobs. Then expects the credit for doing something to alleviate the damage it has caused.

    An interesting way to conduct public policy, I must say.
    Charles said:

    I totally oppose foxhunting and all cruelty to animals.

    Maugham needs to be investigated for animal cruelty.

    From the Mail, the fox was caught in electric netting. Presumably scared and in pain.
    And the right way to have killed it, if no other option was available, was cleanly with one shot from a gun so it would not have suffered anymore. Not by being beaten to death with a bat.
    Maugham should have rung the RSPCA to find out what to do.

    His gloating about it as if this was just a merry tale is particularly distasteful.
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Byronic said:

    OK I think I've had enough fun with Jolyon Maugham now.

    I feel genuinely sad about the fox, but I can't deny this has been the most amusing Boxing Day news story in several aeons.

    See y'all later

    https://mobile.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1210571027618484226
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,424
    HYUFD said:


    Maybe those with the fewest qualifications were most affected by cheap labour from Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and globalisation and wanted to see tighter immigration controls and regained sovereignty, the same explanation for the rise of Trump and the populist right in Europe, Boldonaro or Morrison's re election in Australia etc

    Precisely - indeed the move in Australia coincided with moves to increase immigration in the working class job range - quite explicitly to "deal with the problem" that driving a truck in the mines could make you more money than being an MP.

    To understand the current structure in the UK, it is worth going back a few years. Major and then New Labour believed that all jobs would shortly be white collar. Hence the drive to get everyone a degree.

    The problem was that to get everyone a degree of high academic quality would mean a generational effort, involving blowing up much of the British education system from primary onwards. This would in turn piss off the teachers, the education experts and the parents.

    The obvious response was to massively expand university education (via the old polys) and ignore the quality. This created a 2 tier degree education system - with the Russell Group universities providing the quality and the others... not so much.

    The white collar job market expanded - but not as much and in quality as the "experts" had supposed. Between the Russell Group and foreigners (surplus to requirements in their own countries) with equivalent level degrees, all the top jobs were nicely filled. Employers routinely screen applicants by their university - good luck getting a really top job with a degree from some of the universities.

    Meanwhile in the lower rungs of the system, the new degrees simply created credentialism - jobs formerly occupied by A Level'd school leavers now need degrees. Ironically this shut out the 50% who don't go to university from getting on the rungs of the ladder.

    Below this was the true race to the bottom - in trade after trade, wages zero'd in on the minimum wage. And often, below, in effect - nasty games with uniforms and equipment etc to drop the numbers even further.

    So, for the last couple of decades, if you have a 2.1 or a 1st from a Russell Group university, life has been rather good. 2008 apart, wage rises, improvements in employment conditions - standing desks, Herman Miller chairs, shiny new offices, gleaming coffee machines. Even ping pong tables. 30 days of leave becoming standard. And colleagues from around the world to make you feel inclusive and progressive.

    In the middle are a growing number of people with lots of debt from university and a 25K a year job to pay it off...

    If you are not in that world - well, it's been the joy of scratching around for a job that isn't minimum wage. And the conditions of work at the bottom are rather different. To say the least.

  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2019

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    That is neither arrogant or disdainful, but factual.
    It is factual, but suppose we were to ask who benefitted from the EU as a function of educational qualifications?

    Almost all the benefits of being in the EU accrued to the most highly educated.

    Of course, the benefits could have been more widely shared -- that might have given a wider cross section of people reasons to vote for the EU.

    The benefits of the being in the EU were for example concentrated in the middle class professionals of London and the South East and the University towns. Remainer-dom.

    Because politics was once about beliefs but it is now all about the accrual and worship of money.

    And none more so than the Remainer vote.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,424

    Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184

    Post-Brexit, on that basis, the UK should claim the whole North Sea.
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    NEW THREAD

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    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    That is neither arrogant or disdainful, but factual.
    It is factual, but suppose we were to ask who benefitted from the EU as a function of educational qualifications?

    Almost all the benefits of being in the EU accrued to the most highly educated.

    Of course, the benefits could have been more widely shared -- that might have given a wider cross section of people reasons to vote for the EU.

    The benefits of the being in the EU were for example concentrated in the middle class professionals of London and the South East and the University towns. Remainer-dom.

    Because politics was once about beliefs but it is now all about the accrual and worship of money.

    And none more so than the Remainer vote.
    As a teacher told me, when exasperated that I didn’t vote to remain, that there was no way she could have got her bathroom tiled so cheaply if it wasn’t for the Eastern European’s who did it.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:


    Maybe those with the fewest qualifications were most affected by cheap labour from Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and globalisation and wanted to see tighter immigration controls and regained sovereignty, the same explanation for the rise of Trump and the populist right in Europe, Boldonaro or Morrison's re election in Australia etc

    Precisely - indeed the move in Australia coincided withy to "deal with the problem" that driving a truck in the mines could make you more money than being an MP.

    To understand the current structure in the UK, it is worth going back a few years. Major and then New Labour believed that all jobs would shortly be white collar. Hence the drive to get everyone a degree.

    The problem was that to get everyone a degree of high academic quality would mean a generational effort, involving blowing up much of the British education system from primary onwards. This would in turn piss off the teachers, the education experts and the parents.

    The obvious response was to massively expand university education (via the old polys) and ignore the quality. This created a 2 tier degree education system - with the Russell Group universities providing the quality and the others... not so much.

    The white collar job market expanded - but not as much and in quality as the "experts" had supposed. Between the Russell Group and foreigners (surplus to requirements in their own countries) with equivalent level degrees, all the top jobs were nicely filled. Employers routinely screen applicants by their university - good luck getting a really top job with a degree from some of the universities.

    Meanwhile in the lower rungs of the system, the new degrees simply created credentialism - jobs formerly occupied by A Level'd school leavers now need degrees. Ironically this shut out the 50% who don't go to university from getting on the rungs of the ladder.

    Below this was the true race to the bottom - in trade after trade, wages zero'd in on the minimum wage. And often, below, in effect - nasty games with uniforms and equipment etc to drop the numbers even further.

    So, for the last couple of decades, if you have a 2.1 or a 1st from a Russell Group university, life has been rather good. 2008 apart, wage rises, improvements in employment conditions - standing desks, Herman Miller chairs, shiny new offices, gleaming coffee machines. Even ping pong tables. 30 days of leave becoming standard. And colleagues from around the world to make you feel inclusive and progressive.

    In the middle are a growing number of people with lots of debt from university and a 25K a year job to pay it off...

    If you are not in that world - well, it's been the joy of scratching around for a job that isn't minimum wage. And the conditions of work at the bottom are rather different. To say the least.

    Epic nail on the head...
  • Options

    felix said:



    No surprise.

    An even bigger majority againt would come from the Republic..
    Possibly but I'm not too sure about republic.
    It'll be like German reunification all over again, it made no economic sense for West Germany to reunify with East Germany but emotionally it is what the West Germans wanted.
    Good point.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 55,308
    HYUFD said:

    Essexit said:

    felix said:

    Mr. Byronic, it might be the feeling of dislocation between one's assumptions about the country and the natural order of things and suddenly discovering that isn't the case.

    When the world isn't as you thought it was that can be quite a difficult thing with which to come to terms.

    I do feel sympathy for people in that situation. And the killer is that the referendum was there to be won, and the campaign absolutely fucked it up. A renegotiation that was seen as Neville Chamberlain's piece of paper. Warnings that were so dire they were laughed at and undermined more credible claims. Enlisting a foreign politician to try and tell people how to vote.

    Though, personally, I'd go back to Lisbon. Promising people a referendum and then reneging upon it wasn't just dodgy, it was bloody stupid.

    It has and continues to reveal very starkly that large numbers of our citizens have a profound distaste for democracy when they lose and a really nasty, arrogant and thoroughly unpleasant disdain for large swathes of the population. I guess it has always been there but Brexit has brought it to the fore and most of them have no shame whatsoever in the expression of their views.
    I do feel that the 'arrogant and unpleasant disdain' comes from the victors.
    Some of it does. Lots of it does not.

    https://twitter.com/TedUrchin/status/1210323437224415242?s=19
    Maybe those with the fewest qualifications were most affected by cheap labour from Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and globalisation and wanted to see tighter immigration controls and regained sovereignty, the same explanation for the rise of Trump and the populist right in Europe, Boldonaro or Morrison's re election in Australia etc
    It's interesting, though, that there is essentially zero correlation between levels of immigration and support for the populist right.

    To my mind, it's very simple. Until 2008, being in a developed country was a one way ticket to rising living standards. Since then - for various reasons - that has not been the case. People feel angry that they aren't seeing the same progression in living standards their parents have, and blame globalisation, liberalism and immigration.

    The questions are: (1) what are the ultimate drivers behind the slowdown in living standards? (2) what can be done to ameliorate or improve the lots of all?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 94,460

    Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
    https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184

    Who dares constrain China? They get huffy if sport stars tweet something disapproving, let alone anything real.
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    Even here the swing was 0.66 to CON . But what about Bradford West where the LAB majority went up 5000 with a record swing (matched only by Putney) of 6.47% twice as large as anywhere else let alone within 150 miles? Now that really was a feat but none of the LAB websites etc mention it.
This discussion has been closed.