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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s GE2019 post mortem

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    paynie said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Yzy6Rqrmc

    Dr David Starkey on Brexit, and the current state of the Conservative and Labour parties. As usual, he is faultlessly on the button. What an intellect.

    Even Starkey has reassessed his view of Boris, moving from Charles IInd in style to Churchill in getting Brexit done.

    Also says the Tories should go back to Beveridge in rethinking how healthcare is delivered in a way the North can accept
    He also said Boris is possibly the last PM of the UK.
    Though he suggests the education system can be used to enforce a single uniform British nationalism as on the continent and he also sees the monarchy as a unifying force
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1207743134723117057

    Greens lose their sole seat under these changes?

    Reduce the number of UNELECTED Has-Beens, NOT the elected MPs!
    The savings made by reducing the MPs by 50 should finance lots and lots of new Tory Peers.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1207743134723117057

    Greens lose their sole seat under these changes?

    What he doesn't seem to realize is that the current Tory position is so strong that a majority of 104 represents a net gain to the Tories of only +12 seats! The real damage is done to Labour, who are even further away from a majority despite being in a smaller HoC.

    I very much hope these get implemented without fail :naughty:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
  • At least tonight I will not stay up all night and take days to recover like last thursday

    Have a good night rest everyone

    Good night folks
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Message to SNP - Pete "heavy breathing like a hollywood monster" Wishart is not the chap to make your message.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503
    kle4 said:

    I'm not actually sure there are others who could do it as well - I can't think of anyone on the Government benches. But as BigG suggests I'm biased because I like his animal welfare stance.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
    As does the tightrope-walking onanist... :wink:
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    SNP :lol::lol::lol:
  • Message to SNP - Pete "heavy breathing like a hollywood monster" Wishart is not the chap to make your message.

    Ballot papers in Scotland had the following question in 2016:

    "Q. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

    Note that it said "United Kingdom", NOT "Scotland".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
    Fortunately we still look set for a hapless opposition for some time to come
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Here's an interesting thing. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 repealed Section 7 of the Parliament Act 1911 which fixed the parliamentary term at 5 years and also the Septennial Act 1715 which fixed it at 7 years. So if Johnson does repeal the FPTA he can set whatever term he likes. The only safeguard is that Section 2 of the Parliament Act 1911 gives the Lords an absolute veto on any bill which seeks to extend the term beyond 5 years.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Ultimately, Labour has become a movement that doesn’t care about its voters, it cares about feeling smug.

    As a result, its voters have abandoned it, and it is left with smugness.

    They cannot see why constantly thinking themselves the right people to rule Britain and naturally superior to everyone else isn’t appealing to their voters. .
    It's possible for a party to think that and still win elections - Labour are combining that thought without even being able to justify it on the basis of popularity. Lest we forget, the Tories are by far the most popular political party in the UK (though not in some parts of it of course). If you are going to have that arrogance you need to either disguise it, or back it up with success.

    Go figure. I know which I think is the smarter response to the results.
    .
    Don't be a sore loser. Celebrating victory isn't gloating.
    Tories 365
    Lab 202

    :innocent:
    Can you do us a graph please?
    Aaaaargh! Why did you have to suggest that? Just when we were getting him past that stage...
    Fish have to swim.
    Sunil's have to graph.
    Ydoethur's have to pun.

    You cannot fight nature, my friend.
    Sunils have to route-bash, surely.

    (planning to capture - on camera! - the West Midlands Metro to Birmingham Library, and the Stockport to Guide Bridge train within the next couple of weeks)
    Everyone loves a bit of Reddish South...
    Denton too!
    Does it not go to Stalybridge anymore? Or, I guess you've marked off that hop already?
    It does, but you can do Guide Bridge to Stalybridge any day of the week!

    It used to be Fridays only, but changed to Saturday last year I think. Also, last weekend's timetable change shifted the southbound journey by an hour (0846 to 1018), so easier to get to Guide Bridge in time!
    But there is a very good pub at Stalybridge station in which to celebrate your adventure.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
    "Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall".
    - Proverbs 16:18.
  • Cookie said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Cookie said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:
    Ultimately, Labour has become a movement that doesn’t care about its voters, it cares about feeling smug.

    As a result, its voters have abandoned it, and it is left with smugness.

    They cannot see why constantly thinking themselves the right people to rule Britain and naturally superior to everyone else isn’t appealing to their voters. .

    Go figure. I know which I think is the smarter response to the results.
    .
    Don't be a sore loser. Celebrating victory isn't gloating.
    Tories 365
    Lab 202

    :innocent:
    Can you do us a graph please?
    Aaaaargh! Why did you have to suggest that? Just when we were getting him past that stage...
    Fish have to swim.
    Sunil's have to graph.
    Ydoethur's have to pun.

    You cannot fight nature, my friend.
    Sunils have to route-bash, surely.

    (planning to capture - on camera! - the West Midlands Metro to Birmingham Library, and the Stockport to Guide Bridge train within the next couple of weeks)
    Everyone loves a bit of Reddish South...
    Denton too!
    Does it not go to Stalybridge anymore? Or, I guess you've marked off that hop already?
    It does, but you can do Guide Bridge to Stalybridge any day of the week!

    It used to be Fridays only, but changed to Saturday last year I think. Also, last weekend's timetable change shifted the southbound journey by an hour (0846 to 1018), so easier to get to Guide Bridge in time!
    But there is a very good pub at Stalybridge station in which to celebrate your adventure.
    Hmmm... sounds interesting!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
    Yes, five years from now we will be cacking our pants all over again.

    As you campaigned in C&WG and came across some particularly nasty specimens on the other side I can understand your desire to gloat. But most people are not like that.
  • Newsnight have the completely irrelevant David Gauke on talking rubbish, he has learnt nothing.

    Neither have the BBC.
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    NYT
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    Let them hurt, I remember 1997 and 2001 and 2017 as I campaigned in them all and I remember zilch humility from Labour and the LDs then over Tory hurt, this was the best Tory victory in my lifetime (that I can remember bring 6 in 1987) and the party is right to celebrate it
    Yes but little chance of that from the opposition while Corbynism remains at the helm
    Remember, pride comes before a fall.
    Fortunately we still look set for a hapless opposition for some time to come
    It is not all about hapless oppositions, and believe me out of the current runners and riders not one is a patch on Corbyn for sheer incompetence.

    Boris, too could drop the ball, circumstances may not prevail, he may not get the rub of the green, lots of things both within and without his control could occur.

    And in 1997 I recall feeling sympathy for Gwyn Jones, who lost his Cardiff North seat to Julie Morgan. There was a less febrile atmosphere comparing then to now, except perhaps the fall of Portillo. Labour or Conservative, we all raised a smile at that.

    Between them Boris, Corbyn and Brexit have created something really rather unpleasant.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    I shared a house with Andrew Bailey for a year or so, in Avignon Road, Brockley. I also stayed with him for three weeks in New York, when he was on secondment to the Federal Reserve on Wall Street for six months.

    He is a gent. Incredibly thoughtful. And he is certainly no Tory stooge.

    Congratulations, Andy.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    I thought Boris would go for a new Bill to revert to 650 MPs and a new Boundary review.

    But if Con only lose 13 seats in the reduction from 650 to 600, might he be brave and reckon he can get Con MPs to back it on basis there are always plenty of retirements so every serving MP should get a notional Con seat to fight in 2024.

    If he can get this through he is in an astonishingly good position for 2024 - the numbers imply Lab vote is now very, very inefficient.
  • Capx:

    Labour is now so deep in a hole that the light must look like a mere pinprick: it would need to gain 123 seats on a swing of over 10% to gain a majority, and 75 seats to govern in alliance with the Scottish National Party (if the latter again returns 48 MPs).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    MikeL said:

    I thought Boris would go for a new Bill to revert to 650 MPs and a new Boundary review.

    But if Con only lose 13 seats in the reduction from 650 to 600, might he be brave and reckon he can get Con MPs to back it on basis there are always plenty of retirements so every serving MP should get a notional Con seat to fight in 2024.

    If he can get this through he is in an astonishingly good position for 2024 - the numbers imply Lab vote is now very, very inefficient.

    Must be incredibly bad news for Labour in thse Welsh valleys seats. They are tiny. Tories likely to be the largest party by seats in Wales, I would have thought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2019
    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    Banterman said:

    Newsnight have the completely irrelevant David Gauke on talking rubbish, he has learnt nothing.

    Neither have the BBC.
    Newsnight production staff still feeling the hurt.

    All their heroes are turned to dust.
  • paynie said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Yzy6Rqrmc

    Dr David Starkey on Brexit, and the current state of the Conservative and Labour parties. As usual, he is faultlessly on the button. What an intellect.

    His takedown of the awful public school toytown Trot Laurie Penny is one of the greatest things I have ever seen.
    If you're wondering why Laurie Penny's part in the British political and "journalistic" firmament seems to have been supplanted by "I'm literally a communist, you idiot" Ash Sarkar then it's not because she got burned by Starkey but rather that she's now making megabucks as a writer in Hollywood!

    https://www.bleedingcool.com/2019/07/12/talking-to-laurie-penny-about-the-switch-from-british-politics-to-hollywood/

    So following private school and Wadham College, Oxford, we can look forward to her coming back and lecturing us once again as a fully-fledged multi-millionaire sociaist..
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    @Pulpstar paddy are win only the Carabao Cup now, great bets you had I think
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    edited December 2019

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just come back from.Chingford post election party in which IDS declared 'total victory' and onto Brexit and beyond

    And a wee bit of humility is a good thing - there are a lot of people hurting
    I would think a post election victory party would be an odd place for a display of humility, real or affected.
    I know but I still hope we are magnanimous in our win
    I fear it’s a little late for that. That went with the new amendment to the Brexit bill, which is more provocative than meaningful.
    To be honest nothing Boris could do would placate your anger at Brexit but it is happening and I hope some day you will find closure
    I am not angry. Not in the slightest. Trust me, I have bigger fish to fry right now. But I do not trust Boris and severely doubt anything good will come from Brexit. But hey ho, it’s happening, we will see. Maybe we’ll be lucky.

    Meanwhile, Labour and the left of all flavours (Corbynite, Blairite, whatever). have been comprehensively outmanoeuvred and defeated. But that is for now. Today. But nothing lasts. This government will struggle to keep its promises and it will be fun getting ready to take over when the time comes. It will be a hard, but rewarding journey.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    He was utterly feeble in charge of the FCA. It’s been plagued by a series of cases of incompetent supervision, leading to investigations into its own conduct. I can only imagine they don’t want anyone rocking the boat at the BoE.
  • paynie said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Yzy6Rqrmc

    Dr David Starkey on Brexit, and the current state of the Conservative and Labour parties. As usual, he is faultlessly on the button. What an intellect.

    His takedown of the awful public school toytown Trot Laurie Penny is one of the greatest things I have ever seen.
    If you're wondering why Laurie Penny's part in the British political and "journalistic" firmament seems to have been supplanted by "I'm literally a communist, you idiot" Ash Sarkar then it's not because she got burned by Starkey but rather that she's now making megabucks as a writer in Hollywood!

    https://www.bleedingcool.com/2019/07/12/talking-to-laurie-penny-about-the-switch-from-british-politics-to-hollywood/

    So following private school and Wadham College, Oxford, we can look forward to her coming back and lecturing us once again as a fully-fledged multi-millionaire sociaist..
    She got backlash as a darling of the left when she started hanging about with Milo, so scarpered Stateside, where she could no doubt reinvent herself as a quirky plucky Brit from a squat in Tottenham.

    I saw her half witted sister on Newsnight before the GE. However much mummy and daddy spent on that public school, it was wasted.

    Still, they'll no doubt inherit a massive pile of cash in the future, so no need to worry about such bourgeois concepts as success.

    *wanders off, humming 'Common People' by Pulp*
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
  • isam said:

    @Pulpstar paddy are win only the Carabao Cup now, great bets you had I think

    That's because they're watching him closely and the fact the prices were wrong.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    I performed a very scientific test of showing the images of the major contenders to someone with no other details, and asking which they would support, and for some reason Long Bailey came out as the winner. Therefore, she is clearly the one to go with.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    That's a good analysis. It was even better when Matthew Goodwin made it several months ago... :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    I performed a very scientific test of showing the images of the major contenders to someone with no other details, and asking which they would support, and for some reason Long Bailey came out as the winner. Therefore, she is clearly the one to go with.
    In that case Labour may as well pick someone off the street
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
    If they pick Long-Bailey, then may I suggest she won't fight the next General Election.

    Labour are going to discover they have picked a duffer. And they will have to act. They don't have the luxury of stress testing another bad leader at the cost of further seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    @Pulpstar paddy are win only the Carabao Cup now, great bets you had I think

    That's because they're watching him closely and the fact the prices were wrong.
    Well because the place part of the book was over broke really
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    Looking at the effect on Tories only (For it is they who have the votes) on seats lost/disappearing/creating a gain...

    Scotland - Moray and Nairn becomes an SNP notional seat, it would be fought by the Moray candidate. Aberdeenshire West Kincardine candidate stands in Gordon and Deeside.
    North East - Durham North West becomes a notional Labour gain. Blyth and Ashington also does - the Blyth and NW Durham candidates can fight these seats.
    North West - Give the Workington MP Westmorland and Lonsdale. Bolton North East a Lab Gain but can be fought by Bolton NE MP. Give the Bury South MP Farnworth and Radcliffe, give the Heywood and Middleton MP Prestwich and Middleton (Notional Lab seats)

    You can go through the other areas too - essentially the Tory hit is low enough that everyone (I think) can be given a fair shot at a new or slightly altered seat. Combined with a few retirements and it works out well.

  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
    If they pick Long-Bailey, then may I suggest she won't fight the next General Election.

    Labour are going to discover they have picked a duffer. And they will have to act. They don't have the luxury of stress testing another bad leader at the cost of further seats.
    They had a complete duffer in Corbyn too and failed to depose him.

    They will continue to support unelectable leaders until they start valuing winning over ideological purity again.

    I don't know when that will be, but "not any time soon" is my best guess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,896
    Aaron gains a nice chunk of Bill Cash's Stone constituency to sure up his position in NUL.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
    If they pick Long-Bailey, then may I suggest she won't fight the next General Election.

    Labour are going to discover they have picked a duffer. And they will have to act. They don't have the luxury of stress testing another bad leader at the cost of further seats.
    Long-Bailey is Labour's IDS, less negatively viewed than the previous leader but not attracting much positive support either, earnest but lacking in charisma and not well recognised with the public
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121

    At least tonight I will not stay up all night and take days to recover like last thursday

    Have a good night rest everyone

    Good night folks

    Last week I had to take the kids to *two* different noisy singalong playgroups full of screaming toddlers on three hours' sleep following a hatful of election beer and gin.

    Wife: "but you're off work today..."
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    paynie said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7Yzy6Rqrmc

    Dr David Starkey on Brexit, and the current state of the Conservative and Labour parties. As usual, he is faultlessly on the button. What an intellect.

    Even Starkey has reassessed his view of Boris, moving from Charles IInd in style to Churchill in getting Brexit done.

    Also says the Tories should go back to Beveridge in rethinking how healthcare is delivered in a way the North can accept
    He also said Boris is possibly the last PM of the UK.
    Though he suggests the education system can be used to enforce a single uniform British nationalism as on the continent and he also sees the monarchy as a unifying force
    One people, one nation, one leader: it's got a real ring to it.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
    Nearly a quarter of electorate have heard of RBL?

    Hmmm. Really?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    At 19% I'm pretty sure some people might confuse Nandy for Nandos.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    It appears that although Boundary Commission reports have been laid before Parliament the SI can't be voted on due to a legal dispute in Northern Ireland.

    There was a Judicial Review, Court made ruling in July 2019 that report could go ahead as drafted despite Boundary Commission not following some procedure but that was subject to appeal and I can't find anything more up to date.

    Seems absurd given reports were laid before Parliament in September 2018.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    At 19% I'm pretty sure some people might confuse Nandy for Nandos.
    Free owls broadband Nandos might work.....
  • speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    At 19% I'm pretty sure some people might confuse Nandy for Nandos.
    Almost half have heard of Emily, astounding ​statistic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    That's how Labour is going to win the next election. Right there.....

    *facepalm*
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    That's how Labour is going to win the next election. Right there.....

    *facepalm*
    Is he running for leadership?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    At 19% I'm pretty sure some people might confuse Nandy for Nandos.
    Or Andy Pandy?
  • OT just looking at the weird ad I'm getting for a crypto scam, it turns out somebody has overwritten the header graphic:
    http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/header.jpg

    I guess either they compromised the Wordpress install somehow or the AWS bucket had excessively generous permissions.

    Is anybody on this? I'll also email it to Robert.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jess Phillips and Nandy look best for Labour in terms of appealing to the public in a new Yougov poll, Thornberry worst https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20

    Potential Labour leader in positive territory shocker!

    Nandy is the one for the Tories to fear.
    Though I think they will pick Long-Bailey who has a negative net rating with voters, albeit less so than Starmer or Thornberry
    Nearly a quarter of electorate have heard of RBL?

    Hmmm. Really?
    What the electorate think in this election is really of no consequence. Who does Momentum want?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    I hope the betting markets have settled the impeachment bets because:

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1207795034902474752
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    speedy2 said:

    I hope the betting markets have settled the impeachment bets because:

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1207795034902474752

    This is farcical. It can only benefit Trump and the Democrats (misnomer that) are too stupid to see that. Another plus for Trump. To be clear, I'm no fan of Trump.
  • Lovely no-fuss youtube live stream for the debate tonight, there may still be hope for America

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHQJeCeQnFM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    I wouldn't want to be this guy's bile duct.

    It's going to take him fifty years to get over last week's result. But if his hate-filled frame lasts a tenth of that, he'll be doing well.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,947
    MikeL said:

    It appears that although Boundary Commission reports have been laid before Parliament the SI can't be voted on due to a legal dispute in Northern Ireland.

    There was a Judicial Review, Court made ruling in July 2019 that report could go ahead as drafted despite Boundary Commission not following some procedure but that was subject to appeal and I can't find anything more up to date.

    Seems absurd given reports were laid before Parliament in September 2018.

    The Northern Irish and lawyers - two groups that have recent form in trying to subvert British democracy.
  • speedy2 said:

    I hope the betting markets have settled the impeachment bets because:

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1207795034902474752

    Were you on?
  • The pride is domewhat diminished by the fact I share the undoubted honour with Mr Hale.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,707
    edited December 2019
    I like Baemy's look tonight, she's leaning in to the whole Cruella de Vil vibe.
  • I may have misheard but I think KLOBUCHAR just promised to build a fridge to the next century, I want to hear more about this idea
  • JOE BIDEN: WE HAVE TO MOVE BEYOND NORMAL
  • Biden still gets a bit muddled when he's on policy detail but he's getting a lot sharper than when he started.
  • Labour should do 6 months of leadership debates, these candidates are just getting better all the time.
  • All kicking off between Warren and Buttigieg, but Buttigieg is way, way better on defence than when he started.
  • Warren and Buttigieg were like two cute little dalmations fighting each other, KLOBUCHAR just drowned them both in the bath
  • Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning
  • Neverendum (contd.)

    The Electoral Commission confirmed on Monday that the bill had accepted its recommendation of a minimum 10-week campaign period. Added to the required 26-week lead-in period, that would mean a referendum would need nine months from the passing of legislation in Holyrood to polling day, making the holding of one in 2020 look increasingly challenging.

    http://archive.is/Wp1oT#selection-2485.0-2485.351
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Starting to think Boris is right on prison sentences.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/19/teen-prison-court-same-sex-couple-brutal-london-bus-attack-referral-order-melania-geymonat-christine-hannigan/

    I am going to guess the judge was a white straight Anglo-Saxon male.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Gabs3 said:

    Starting to think Boris is right on prison sentences.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/19/teen-prison-court-same-sex-couple-brutal-london-bus-attack-referral-order-melania-geymonat-christine-hannigan/

    I am going to guess the judge was a white straight Anglo-Saxon male.

    There used to be a magistrate who had a blog called "The Law West of Ealing Broadway". It used to contain wonderful (anonymised) versions of cases he heard at one point or another.

    One of the best bits is that he'd have a case, and then he'd ask people in the comments what people thought the sentence that was given would be, and how much people would actually serve. People invariably guessed way low on sentences. Because regular, just sentences aren't news. We don't hear about a burglar who gets five years, because it's not newsworthy. On the other hand, should a teenage attacker of LBG couples avoid jailtime... well, that's a story.

    The consequence of this is that we only hear about sentences that seem to defy logic. And this skews public perception of sentencing policing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    I haven't been watching the Democratic debate. This is a real opportunity for Ms Klobuchar, because this is the first time the number of candidates has really come in. It's no longer 10, 11, 12 people on stage, but just seven. (And one of them is Tom Steyer, and he doesn't count.)

    I'd like, therefore, to post my estimated "probabilities" of various people of getting the Democratic nomination:
    Biden     40
    Warren 22
    Buttigieg 20
    Sanders 6
    Klobuchar 4
    Clinton 2
    Bloomberg 2
    Yang 1
    Gabbard 1
    The Field 2
    This makes Biden, Warren and Buttigieg "buys" (as well as Ms Klobuchar). The sells are Sanders, Clinton and Bloomberg.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Her hat didn’t look like it was worth £3.6m to me.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Starting to think Boris is right on prison sentences.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/19/teen-prison-court-same-sex-couple-brutal-london-bus-attack-referral-order-melania-geymonat-christine-hannigan/

    I am going to guess the judge was a white straight Anglo-Saxon male.

    There used to be a magistrate who had a blog called "The Law West of Ealing Broadway". It used to contain wonderful (anonymised) versions of cases he heard at one point or another.

    One of the best bits is that he'd have a case, and then he'd ask people in the comments what people thought the sentence that was given would be, and how much people would actually serve. People invariably guessed way low on sentences. Because regular, just sentences aren't news. We don't hear about a burglar who gets five years, because it's not newsworthy. On the other hand, should a teenage attacker of LBG couples avoid jailtime... well, that's a story.

    The consequence of this is that we only hear about sentences that seem to defy logic. And this skews public perception of sentencing policing.
    Sounds like stronger minimum sentences should be used to stop the stupid cases then. There is no reason why an intentional violent hate crime should avoid prison time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Gabs3 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Starting to think Boris is right on prison sentences.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/19/teen-prison-court-same-sex-couple-brutal-london-bus-attack-referral-order-melania-geymonat-christine-hannigan/

    I am going to guess the judge was a white straight Anglo-Saxon male.

    There used to be a magistrate who had a blog called "The Law West of Ealing Broadway". It used to contain wonderful (anonymised) versions of cases he heard at one point or another.

    One of the best bits is that he'd have a case, and then he'd ask people in the comments what people thought the sentence that was given would be, and how much people would actually serve. People invariably guessed way low on sentences. Because regular, just sentences aren't news. We don't hear about a burglar who gets five years, because it's not newsworthy. On the other hand, should a teenage attacker of LBG couples avoid jailtime... well, that's a story.

    The consequence of this is that we only hear about sentences that seem to defy logic. And this skews public perception of sentencing policing.
    Sounds like stronger minimum sentences should be used to stop the stupid cases then. There is no reason why an intentional violent hate crime should avoid prison time.
    Why should me punching someone because they're gay or Muslim attract a greater sentence than me punching then because I don't like the way they're looking at my pint?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928

    rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?
    Can it be Barack Obama?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?
    Can it be Barack Obama?
    Yes and no.

    He could be VP, but he couldn't become President in the event of Biden's death.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Gabs3 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Starting to think Boris is right on prison sentences.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/19/teen-prison-court-same-sex-couple-brutal-london-bus-attack-referral-order-melania-geymonat-christine-hannigan/

    I am going to guess the judge was a white straight Anglo-Saxon male.

    There used to be a magistrate who had a blog called "The Law West of Ealing Broadway". It used to contain wonderful (anonymised) versions of cases he heard at one point or another.

    One of the best bits is that he'd have a case, and then he'd ask people in the comments what people thought the sentence that was given would be, and how much people would actually serve. People invariably guessed way low on sentences. Because regular, just sentences aren't news. We don't hear about a burglar who gets five years, because it's not newsworthy. On the other hand, should a teenage attacker of LBG couples avoid jailtime... well, that's a story.

    The consequence of this is that we only hear about sentences that seem to defy logic. And this skews public perception of sentencing policing.
    Sounds like stronger minimum sentences should be used to stop the stupid cases then. There is no reason why an intentional violent hate crime should avoid prison time.
    Douglas Hurd was the only Home Sec of recent times to get it. Prison is an expensive way to make bad people worse.

    Bang up this teenager and guarantee him being in and out of prison forever.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?
    Can it be Barack Obama?
    Yes and no.

    He could be VP, but he couldn't become President in the event of Biden's death.
    Are you sure about that (couldn’t become President)?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Klobuchar did well. She has staying power.

    Biden and Sanders are still too old. Warren has lost her fizz. Buttigeig speaks well but is content light. Yang and Steyer are surely out soon.

    But Americans are nuts, so anything could happen.
  • rcs1000 said:


    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?

    1) Do no harm
    2) Bring a state or demographic
    3) (sometimes) Attack dog

    Kamala Harris or Cory Booker for black Dems

    Baemy for midwest + drowning puppies
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,361
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Everybody's piling on Buttigieg while Biden just stands there quietly winning

    Mr "No Malarky" is a buy here. He's polling much better in Iowa than he used to, and (unlike Buttigieg) he doesn't have to win Iowa. He only has to place top three. Buttigieg needs to win. (Sanders and Warren need top two finishes.)

    Buttigieg's path to the nomination is: win Iowa, win New Hampshire, use the momentum to sweep up the support of moderates who no longer see Biden as a winner. Given he's still polling number one in Iowa, this is a credible path, but it's far from certain.

    Warren's path to the nomination is similar. But she needs to knock out Sanders early, and therefore make the Left wing vote her own. She needs to beat Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire (ideally winning one of these), and effectively force Sanders from the race before Super Tuesday. The Primary schedule allows her to do this and she has good national numbers, but like with Buttigieg, it's a narrow path.

    Biden's path is simplest. Top three Iowa, top three New Hampshire. Win South Carolina and Nevada, and therefore be on a roll going into Super Tuesday.

    Sanders has the hardest path of the top tier of candidates, IMHO. His problem is that while his voters break almost entirely for Warren in the event of him falling out, he isn't a big benificary of anyone else dropping out. He therefore has a low ceiling (sub 35%). He needs to beat Warren in Iowa, and then win New Hampshire, and then hope Warren's voters don't end up going in all directions.
    Yup, I agree with all of that. Also having seen the debate I think Biden is *performing* better than he was. He's still not great - he gets muddled when he's on policy detail - but he's definitely adequate.

    Also I think Warren is looking a little bit patchy; She has strong moments, but she's lumbered with some stuff that's hard to defend and she tends to just deflect, which I think would be hard to sustain if it comes down to a head-to-head against a moderate.
    So, who will be Biden's VP?

    It can't really be another moderate. And I don't buy Warren in the number two position. It has to be someone young, but it can't be Buttigieg... Who?
    Can it be Barack Obama?
    Yes and no.

    He could be VP, but he couldn't become President in the event of Biden's death.
    I thought that was the very reason he couldn't qualify as Veep?
This discussion has been closed.