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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s impeachment has almost no impact on the WH2020 betting

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s impeachment has almost no impact on the WH2020 betting – he’s still an evens chance to win

The betdata/io chart shows the latest WH2020 betting and as can be seen Trump remains the evens favourite to secure re-election in November next year. The overnight apparently dramatic news that this is only the third time in US history that the House of Representatives has voted in this way was widely anticipated and, of course, only the Senate can remove him from office.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    First.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Looks like impeachment is improving Trump's odds of winning re-election according to the market. 😭
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Is Jezza going to be a graceless tw@t again today?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Really tough spot for Pelosi. She knows this impeachment may backfire politically but at the same time, it would be a complete dereliction of duty to just allow Trump's crimes to go entirely unanswered.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is Jezza going to be a graceless tw@t again today?

    Is the Pope Catholic?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1207612164128870402?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.
    Boris says one thing and does another.
    1.01 weighs in

    Oh of course! Let the division remain!!
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.

    And as we know, his word is his bond.

    It's obviously not on a lot of people's agenda, takes two to make up
    Saying you want healing and then legislating to promote a hard Brexit are not compatible.
    Sure it is. Healing can occur post-Brexit.
    What concessions do you think Boris will give?
    To whom?
    To the people with whom he wants to heal.
    He will Get Brexit Done.

    For too long many opponents of Brexit were stuck in the first stage of grief (shock and denial). Mr Meeks of this parish has got stuck on the anger stage. Once Brexit is done people can move onwards to acceptance and healing can begin.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Queen wearing Brexit Party Blue?

    Corbyn ignores Johnson walking like a zombie, good natured shoving & pushing between Thornberry & Blackford
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    Someone tell Corbs to cheer up. :p
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    In response to @Philip_Thompson (FPT):-

    “That article talks about “ongoing ... prosecutions”. If that is a reference to NI then it suggests that the government is seeking to stop the prosecution of Soldier F, charged with two murders. I bloody hope not.

    Double jeopardy already applies and does not need new legislation, unless the government is preparing to repeal the legislation which allowed the retrials of the killers of Stephen Lawrence. And retrospective legislation has always been contrary to English law, except in very specific circumstances.

    It still remains to be seen exactly what mischief needs to be addressed which cannot already be dealt with using the existing law. Or whether the government is really trying to give certain groups immunity from the law.”
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Emily Thornberry being a graceless tw@t it seems. Not walking with her opposite number.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Cyclefree said:

    In response to @Philip_Thompson (FPT):-

    “That article talks about “ongoing ... prosecutions”. If that is a reference to NI then it suggests that the government is seeking to stop the prosecution of Soldier F, charged with two murders. I bloody hope not.

    Double jeopardy already applies and does not need new legislation, unless the government is preparing to repeal the legislation which allowed the retrials of the killers of Stephen Lawrence. And retrospective legislation has always been contrary to English law, except in very specific circumstances.

    It still remains to be seen exactly what mischief needs to be addressed which cannot already be dealt with using the existing law. Or whether the government is really trying to give certain groups immunity from the law.”

    Indeed we will see. The bits I quoted seem reasonable, the devil will indeed be in the details though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,771
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Emily Thornberry being a graceless tw@t it seems. Not walking with her opposite number.

    You shock me.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,657
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1207612164128870402?s=20

    Unspeakably patronizing.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In response to @Philip_Thompson (FPT):-

    “That article talks about “ongoing ... prosecutions”. If that is a reference to NI then it suggests that the government is seeking to stop the prosecution of Soldier F, charged with two murders. I bloody hope not.

    Double jeopardy already applies and does not need new legislation, unless the government is preparing to repeal the legislation which allowed the retrials of the killers of Stephen Lawrence. And retrospective legislation has always been contrary to English law, except in very specific circumstances.

    It still remains to be seen exactly what mischief needs to be addressed which cannot already be dealt with using the existing law. Or whether the government is really trying to give certain groups immunity from the law.”

    Indeed we will see. The bits I quoted seem reasonable, the devil will indeed be in the details though.
    I disagree about them being reasonable. But we will see. The rule of law is the foundation stone of democracy and a free country. I am genuinely concerned about Boris’s - and the new Tory party’s - instincts in this regard.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Royal Commission on Criminal Justice
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    numbertwelve said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Emily Thornberry being a graceless tw@t it seems. Not walking with her opposite number.

    You shock me.
    I read it.

    tl;dr - it wasn't Corbyn's fault
    tl;dr - it was the media and establishment's fault
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    “Minimum levels of service during transport strikes”
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1207612164128870402?s=20

    It's such a sterile debate. Pretty obviously, there's a spectrum. If I wanted to present myself as middle class, I'd say that I was a privately and university educated City professional. If I wanted to present myself as working class, I'd say that I was the son of a printer and the first person in my family to go to university. All of the above is true.

    I suspect my mother would define herself as "respectable" long before she thought about being working class or middle class. I can't honestly say I think about being the member of a class from one month to the next.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.
    Boris says one thing and does another.
    1.01 weighs in

    Oh of course! Let the division remain!!
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.

    And as we know, his word is his bond.

    It's obviously not on a lot of people's agenda, takes two to make up
    Saying you want healing and then legislating to promote a hard Brexit are not compatible.
    Sure it is. Healing can occur post-Brexit.
    What concessions do you think Boris will give?
    To whom?
    To the people with whom he wants to heal.
    He will Get Brexit Done.

    For too long many opponents of Brexit were stuck in the first stage of grief (shock and denial). Mr Meeks of this parish has got stuck on the anger stage. Once Brexit is done people can move onwards to acceptance and healing can begin.
    A brief counsellor as well? Is there no end to your talents?!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ban on export of plastic waste outside OECD

    FPTA repealed
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,599
    It seems most of the queens speech is about enshrining in law what the government must do! Even the government doesnt trust the government!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    Jonathan said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.
    Boris says one thing and does another.
    1.01 weighs in

    Oh of course! Let the division remain!!
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Hiliary Benn on Sky continuing to do his best to keep losing votes for Labour via his inner Mr Stop Brexit.

    There are very many who are understandably upset that Brexit is lost to the remain cause and it is like bereavement, time will be needed for them to adjust to the dramatic change in their hopes and dreams

    Wise words, MrG. If we are to heal as a country, an understanding of this is required. Sadly, I am not sure that healing is on the agenda!

    Your old mucker Boris explicitly said it was in his victory speech.

    And as we know, his word is his bond.

    It's obviously not on a lot of people's agenda, takes two to make up
    Saying you want healing and then legislating to promote a hard Brexit are not compatible.
    Sure it is. Healing can occur post-Brexit.
    What concessions do you think Boris will give?
    To whom?
    To the people with whom he wants to heal.
    He will Get Brexit Done.

    For too long many opponents of Brexit were stuck in the first stage of grief (shock and denial). Mr Meeks of this parish has got stuck on the anger stage. Once Brexit is done people can move onwards to acceptance and healing can begin.
    A brief counsellor as well? Is there no end to your talents?!
    I'm not a brief counsellor.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    CarlottaVance said:

    Ban on export of plastic waste outside OECD

    FPTA repealed

    Glorious news :o
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Despite my inner republican, it's good to see Her Majesty look like a proper Queen, rather than a Drag Queen :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Jezza should have told Boris all about how he won the argument....
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Despite my inner republican, it's good to see Her Majesty look like a proper Queen, rather than a Drag Queen :lol:

    Social conservatives 😜
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    https://medium.com/@laura.pidcock.mp/letter-to-the-people-i-represented-406aea893243
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    "Despite the costed manifesto and the painstaking and detailed work of different Labour teams, it didn’t seem achievable. You talked about wanting control back to your country, but when I relayed how a Ministry of Employment Rights would unlock power in the most fundamental way — in the control over your employment and working life — I understand that it did not resonate. I could almost hear media pundits yawning when I tried to talk about the Ministry of Employment Rights."

    bleakly funny
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    “Minimum levels of service during transport strikes”

    Good.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    Available via the Northern Echo.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rkrkrk said:

    Really tough spot for Pelosi. She knows this impeachment may backfire politically but at the same time, it would be a complete dereliction of duty to just allow Trump's crimes to go entirely unanswered.

    I don't understand why the Mueller obstruction of justice stuff isn't in this impeachment. Mutiple senior memebers of Trump's campaign tream have been arrested over it, millions of dollars of corrupt payments seized, clear evidence that Trump has covered it up (except when he's blabbing about it). Why is that not in the articles of impeachment?

    By making it about Biden it makes this impeachment look like a reaction to Trump going after Dems personally.

    It is super weird.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Jezza looks ready to explode.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,817
    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
    Probably needs to be written down now, but you could write it in such a way that it restores the status quo ante.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
    Royal Prerogative which once removed cannot be returned.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
    The precision of the current act is the problem. There needs to be more flexibility.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
    The Septennial Act (as amended) existed which was repealed, that can be brought back.

    However the mechanism for calling the election was a Royal Prerogative and its not clear how or if that can be brought back. Some argument it can't be brought back but we'll see soon I guess.

    Any surprises in the Gracious Speech? I didn't spot any.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    Who is May talking to ?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    Royal Commission on Criminal Justice

    Tories going soft on crime? Or ending automatically release?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jezza looks ready to explode.

    Its almost as if the Queen didn't realise he'd won the argument!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jezza looks ready to explode.

    Its almost as if the Queen didn't realise he'd won the argument!
    At least he doesn't have to pretend to watch her on Christmas Day anymore.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Ian Blackford sitting in Dennis Skinner’s old seat.....as leader of the third largest contingent of MPs I suppose it makes sense...or does it by tradition go to the longest serving opposition MP?

    Either way we’ve traded one tedious windbag for another...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is Jezza going to be a graceless tw@t again today?

    Today specifically, as opposed to any other day?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    edited December 2019
    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhh....bad tempered Magic Grandpa.

    I reckon he goes full Gavin Belson when he loses it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    To be fair what has he got to be happy about?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Philip_Thompson said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
    The government supplies the bung and the executives provide the demand for bonuses.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    algarkirk said:

    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    Available via the Northern Echo.
    Brief summary: Bafflement that people don't love Jeremy. Jeremy is brilliant. The manifesto was brilliant. Everything would have been brilliant had Labour got in to power. A Labour Brexit would have been brilliant and everyone would have been happy. Now, we'll get a Tory Brexit and everyone will be sad. It's all the media's fault. They won't let you see Jeremy like I see him.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    And there seems to be £27 at 75 on Betfair that he'll go this year
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    To be fair what has he got to be happy about?
    He won the argument.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Really tough spot for Pelosi. She knows this impeachment may backfire politically but at the same time, it would be a complete dereliction of duty to just allow Trump's crimes to go entirely unanswered.

    I don't understand why the Mueller obstruction of justice stuff isn't in this impeachment. Mutiple senior memebers of Trump's campaign tream have been arrested over it, millions of dollars of corrupt payments seized, clear evidence that Trump has covered it up (except when he's blabbing about it). Why is that not in the articles of impeachment?

    By making it about Biden it makes this impeachment look like a reaction to Trump going after Dems personally.

    It is super weird.
    There has been talk of further House investigations as some of the Special Counsel material that was presented to grand juries becomes available. And if Trump's tax records are finally released that should be another gold mine.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    TrèsDifficile said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    And there seems to be £27 at 75 on Betfair that he'll go this year
    Remember the almighty clusterf*** that were the Theresa May exit date markets?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    Available via the Northern Echo.
    Brief summary: Bafflement that people don't love Jeremy. Jeremy is brilliant. The manifesto was brilliant. Everything would have been brilliant had Labour got in to power. A Labour Brexit would have been brilliant and everyone would have been happy. Now, we'll get a Tory Brexit and everyone will be sad. It's all the media's fault. They won't let you see Jeremy like I see him.
    Funny, I was just going to summarise Laura Pidcock's letter to constituents along these lines!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
    The government supplies the bung and the executives provide the demand for bonuses.
    They'll only get bonuses if they're making a profit and they'll only be making a profit if they're both building and selling more homes.

    House building rates are at record levels and home ownership rates are going up. The policies are working as intended.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    TrèsDifficile said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    And there seems to be £27 at 75 on Betfair that he'll go this year
    Lol it's obviously a lay.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    On topic. It's not surprising the markets haven't moved. There's no chance of him being convicted in the Senate, and the impeachment process only hardens the resolve of himself and his supporters.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Thanks for the answers on the FTPA.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    I really don't know how Jezza would have coped as PM. He barely manages to keep it together working 4 days a week. Imagine what he would have been like having to be 24/7.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    Available via the Northern Echo.
    Brief summary: Bafflement that people don't love Jeremy. Jeremy is brilliant. The manifesto was brilliant. Everything would have been brilliant had Labour got in to power. A Labour Brexit would have been brilliant and everyone would have been happy. Now, we'll get a Tory Brexit and everyone will be sad. It's all the media's fault. They won't let you see Jeremy like I see him.
    And it's the Conservatives fault for putting up a candidate, and the voters come in for gentle stick for voting for him. New Labour is not without blame; one more heave to the left should sort it, along with a campaign explaining better why vile Tory scum (whom I shall never kiss) should vote for me.

    Apart from those self evident truths her letter is all nonsense.

  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Pulpstar said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    And there seems to be £27 at 75 on Betfair that he'll go this year
    Lol it's obviously a lay.
    Brave, at 979/1!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629015
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories need more private housing by hook or crook, University is a great factory for producing Labour voters; home ownership a fab one for Making new Tories

    Indeed and Help to Buy has been working with that. Any more ways they can make Help to Buy work to improve home ownership rates is great for producing Tory voters - and great for the people getting out of renting and on to the housing ladder.

    It baffles me why some on this site are unhappy with policies that are ensuring house building is occuring and home ownership rates are going up.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    Philip_Thompson said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
    Regulation and the associated planning requirements and local plans are the biggest brake on house building.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
    Regulation and the associated planning requirements and local plans are the biggest brake on house building.
    Indeed so deregulation while continuing with Help to Buy policies would be a good next step at escalating the building that is occuring already at record levels and further increase our current increase in home ownership rates.

    I would support abolition of the green belt but I'm aware that's a niche view.
  • TrèsDifficileTrèsDifficile Posts: 1,729
    Sandpit said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    TrèsDifficile said:

    I think he might quit earlier than planned.. He's really not happy
    https://twitter.com/CoxeyLoxey/status/1207612442940977152?s=20

    And there seems to be £27 at 75 on Betfair that he'll go this year
    Remember the almighty clusterf*** that were the Theresa May exit date markets?
    She continued as acting leader iirc. I reckon if JC steps down he'll do it properly like EdM
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    NorthernPowerhouse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Are all the Beefeaters at Houses of Parliament today? Who entertains the tourists at the Tower? Or are they like Liverpool FC and have a youth team for the other fixture?

    More house buying subsidies to annoy me. Just build more.

    The government isn't in the business of building houses. House building companies do it and they do it to meet demand.

    If people find it easier to buy homes, then that encourages companies to build more homes. One feeds the other. It is simple supply and demand.
    Regulation and the associated planning requirements and local plans are the biggest brake on house building.
    Planning rules are being reformed (yet again).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Philip_Thompson said:


    I'm not a brief counsellor.

    Ha, still, predictive text at least gives an accurate assessment of any putative counselling career you might be considering.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    New homes bonus has been very useful in getting councils to free up available sites for housing...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Pulpstar said:

    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.

    The Tories better hope house prices don't crash at the next recession.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories need more private housing by hook or crook, University is a great factory for producing Labour voters; home ownership a fab one for Making new Tories

    Is that true at current house price to income ratios?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1207612164128870402?s=20

    It's such a sterile debate. Pretty obviously, there's a spectrum. If I wanted to present myself as middle class, I'd say that I was a privately and university educated City professional. If I wanted to present myself as working class, I'd say that I was the son of a printer and the first person in my family to go to university. All of the above is true.

    I suspect my mother would define herself as "respectable" long before she thought about being working class or middle class. I can't honestly say I think about being the member of a class from one month to the next.
    It is relevant because there is a vacancy for labour leader, and several of the candidates are desperate to portray themselves in class terms.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.

    The Tories better hope house prices don't crash at the next recession.
    The Tories had better keep interest rates low then - as the overpriced garbage (for it often really is both too small and poorly built) is only cheaper than renting because typical mortgage interest rates are below 3% (Standard Variable rates are higher but most people remortgage at the end of each term).
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    "And no one who needs care has to sell their home to pay for it".

    Are we any nearer knowing who will pay for it? General taxation? A charge on the estate after death?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1207612164128870402?s=20

    Someone who knows what working class means
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    edited December 2019
    contrarian said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    nunu2 said:

    contrarian said:

    On twitter there is a Laura Pidcock letter to constituents, apparently.

    It is apparently quite amusing.

    Why don't you read it first, then report back.
    Available via the Northern Echo.
    Brief summary: Bafflement that people don't love Jeremy. Jeremy is brilliant. The manifesto was brilliant. Everything would have been brilliant had Labour got in to power. A Labour Brexit would have been brilliant and everyone would have been happy. Now, we'll get a Tory Brexit and everyone will be sad. It's all the media's fault. They won't let you see Jeremy like I see him.
    Funny, I was just going to summarise Laura Pidcock's letter to constituents along these lines!
    To be fair to Laura Pidcock, she explores and mines a rich vein of unconscious - maybe subconscious - humour following a long and distinguished left tradition. She jumps straight from the pages of Beachcomber or Peter Simple. Her entertainment value is endless and I shall miss her - as we miss John Prescott. Whereas, say, Lloyd RM or Burgon, or even the great Jezza, are bullying humourless amateurs by comparison.

    Could she not be found a seat in Bootle or Walton or somewhere where she can carry on her important work without having to worry about getting anyone to vote for her?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    Brexit Department has got the chop.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    eek said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.

    The Tories better hope house prices don't crash at the next recession.
    The Tories had better keep interest rates low then - as the overpriced garbage (for it often really is both too small and poorly built) is only cheaper than renting because typical mortgage interest rates are below 3% (Standard Variable rates are higher but most people remortgage at the end of each term).
    It's the dog that doesn't bark. When was the last time the media talked about monetary policy? A big part of why we are so divided as a country is because of low interest rates. Yet, journalists, many of whom have done very well out of this arrangement, don't want to talk about it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.

    The Tories better hope house prices don't crash at the next recession.
    A period of sub inflation/sub wage increase growth in house prices is best for the Tories.
    Nominal gains so remortgaging etc isn't a problem for owners but increasing affordability.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    tlg86 said:

    rottenborough said:

    The end of FTPA. Hurrah!

    What existed before FTPA? Was it just by convention that the PM had the right to call an election and that the government would fall if it lost a confidence vote? If so, can they just go back to those days? Or does something more precise need to be written down now?
    It was all based on a letter to The Times, no really.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    So the heckle died with Dennis Skinner's career.

    Disappointing. Boo.

    What was wrong with "D'oh, Jeremy Corbyn".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Yeah The Rise Of Skywalker was a good way to this trilogy but it was no Endgame.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1207626835066007554?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think much of the new housing stock is overpriced garbage but it's superior to renting for the owners. Which is all it needs to beat really.

    The Tories better hope house prices don't crash at the next recession.
    A period of sub inflation/sub wage increase growth in house prices is best for the Tories.
    Nominal gains so remortgaging etc isn't a problem for owners but increasing affordability.
    That's what's happened in recent years I believe. House price to wage ratios are coming down again.

    Its a function of improved housebuilding rates I suspect. The more building that occurs the less pressure on house price inflation there is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah The Rise Of Skywalker was a good way to this trilogy but it was no Endgame.

    No Mandalorian then :-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    CarlottaVance said:

    twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1207626835066007554?s=20

    It is clear he is going to be a sad angry man screaming at the moon even after he steps down.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah The Rise Of Skywalker was a good way to this trilogy but it was no Endgame.

    No Mandalorian then :-)
    No Baby [spoilers] either.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,875
    Decision for the remortgage - 5 years or 2.... genuinely tricky to work out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1207626835066007554?s=20

    He's entitled to be pissed off. It's literally a ritual humiliation. Losing to someone like Boris really has to hurt. Fair play to him.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    I wonder if this'll backfire.

    It may well cause his base to turn out, but that won't matter if floating voters are against him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Morris_Dancer said:

    I wonder if this'll backfire.

    It may well cause his base to turn out, but that won't matter if floating voters are against him.

    There's a huge risk it backfires like the Benn Act.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,439
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah The Rise Of Skywalker was a good way to this trilogy but it was no Endgame.

    No Mandalorian then :-)
    No Baby [spoilers] either.
    To be fair, the 2 most recent episodes of the Baby [censored], I mean Mandalorian, has been quite good.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1207626835066007554?s=20

    It’s the happiest line in Britain... here’s what you would’ve won!
This discussion has been closed.