And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
He just increased his majority by 15000.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.
I was going to remark on the fact that Mansfield is an exemplar of how quickly the Labour vote can shrink once the Labour habit vote it broken (1K majority in 2017, 16K majority in 2019.) Except, of course, that this election has examples of seats that were Labour since the dawn of time suddenly transforming into Tory strongholds in one go (Bassetlaw being the most extreme instance.)
What's happened to the Northern Leave seats - the sudden collapse of generational patterns of loyalty, the violent swings - feels not unlike the SNP landslide of 2015. No wonder that the Government shows encouraging signs of not taking its new voters for granted: if it can do right by them, they might never go back to Labour.
There's quite a variation in the Conservative Northern gains.
There are traditional marginals which are still traditional marginals - the Burys, Bolton NE, Keighley, Colne Valley, High Peak.
There is the 'Conservative mining belt' - Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Penistone, Don and Rother Valleys - which I can see becoming safe Conservative seats as the likes of Sherwood and Cannock to their south have done.
There are the Tees Valley, Blyth Valley and Cumbria constituencies which might be similar to the Conservative mining belt.
And there are more individual seats with more local issues - Redcar, Burnley, Grimsby for example.
Agree with that. I think as remarked on previous occasions that there is something of a divide along the Miners' Striker faultline.
Up there some may remember Scargill a hero, whilst I remember him as the barsteward who sent hundreds of flying thugs our way because he was too much of a coward to allow a democratic vote.
I think it all depends on the Tory Govt making a material and perceptible difference in each community.
The danger for Lab is that what happens is out of their control.
And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
He just increased his majority by 15000.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.
I was going to remark on the fact that Mansfield is an exemplar of how quickly the Labour vote can shrink once the Labour habit vote it broken (1K majority in 2017, 16K majority in 2019.) Except, of course, that this election has examples of seats that were Labour since the dawn of time suddenly transforming into Tory strongholds in one go (Bassetlaw being the most extreme instance.)
What's happened to the Northern Leave seats - the sudden collapse of generational patterns of loyalty, the violent swings - feels not unlike the SNP landslide of 2015. No wonder that the Government shows encouraging signs of not taking its new voters for granted: if it can do right by them, they might never go back to Labour.
There's quite a variation in the Conservative Northern gains.
There are traditional marginals which are still traditional marginals - the Burys, Bolton NE, Keighley, Colne Valley, High Peak.
There is the 'Conservative mining belt' - Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Penistone, Don and Rother Valleys - which I can see becoming safe Conservative seats as the likes of Sherwood and Cannock to their south have done.
There are the Tees Valley, Blyth Valley and Cumbria constituencies which might be similar to the Conservative mining belt.
And there are more individual seats with more local issues - Redcar, Burnley, Grimsby for example.
Good post I think you are right about the mining belt lost to Labour for a long time.
Comments
Up there some may remember Scargill a hero, whilst I remember him as the barsteward who sent hundreds of flying thugs our way because he was too much of a coward to allow a democratic vote.
I think it all depends on the Tory Govt making a material and perceptible difference in each community.
The danger for Lab is that what happens is out of their control.