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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to ne
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP within 5 points of taking Thanet South according to new constituency poll. CON slips from 1st to 3rd
The Thanet South survey is being released now because the seat has had a lot of attention with the incumbent CON MP saying she’ll step down at GE2015 and the reported interest of Nigel Farage.
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http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/South-Thanet-Tables.pdf
http://survation.com/2013/11/new-constituency-polling-in-south-thanet/
Either way, bad poll for the PB Hodges.
So LD should be -10, rather than -15, and Labour should be +4, rather than +5.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/thanetsouth/
Thanet North
Thanet South
Sittingbourne & Sheppey
Forest of Dean
Aylesbury
Great Yarmouth
Boston & Skegness
Worthing East & Shoreham
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
UKIP also probably won most votes in Camborne & Redruth although there the picture was a bit muddied due to a high Independent showing.
That said it will provide useful ammunition for UKIP election leaflets where such details get lost.....
Spokes, lies and videotape:
Police 'still not telling truth over Plebgate,' says Andrew Mitchell as officer Pc Keith Wallis to be charged with misconduct in public office
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/spokes-lies-and-videotape-police-are-still-not-telling-truth-over-plebgate-says-andrew-mitchell-as-officer-pc-keith-wallis-to-be-charged-with-misconduct-in-public-office-8964589.html
Survation - Tsk - about as much use as Celtic in the Champions League and a whole sample of ... wait for it ... 515 - Utterly laughable.
It might have been worthy of a Nighthawks thread by-line at number 24 below discussion of TSE's latest shoe fetish but .... please not a main discussion on this august organ !!
Farage now mentioning this poll.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/26/ukip-poll-boost-thanet
That's the most interesting piece for me.
I know it's not the same as the 2010 votes cast by UKIP voters, but it does suggest that there is a high NOTA element (as we have all suspected) and that the 22/19 split Con/Lab suggests that UKIP is appealing across the political spectrum.
I would assume, though, that the UKIP/NOTA group would be much more likely not to vote than other party supporters (and I suspect we may not see this until the day as it is cost free to make a statement in response to a poll). I think one of the pollsters (ICM?) adjusts for this...
For the Tories, only 57% decline to opt for a named alternative. 25% would go UKIP, 13% LibDem, 5% Labour. That suggests the remaining Tory vote is actually still fragile and possibly vulnerable to real meltdown if the idea that UKIP can win takes hold.
One caveat - the sample is well weighted for geography in the constituency, but not by past vote. With a small sample, that's a risk. But the poll may be a self-fulfilling prophecy anyway - the UKIP leaflets write themselves.
All their master strategies are short term and squarely aimed at trying to minimise the damage. They are aimed at disgruntled tory backbenchers just as much as disaffected tory voters. They keep hoping that buying a few more months will somehow enable Farage to implode all by himself. There's still no sign of Farage doing that in the Robert Kilroy-Silk manner they clearly require. After the January immigration row really starts there's the EU elections not too long after. That's when tory MPs will likely put huge pressure on Cammie.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/27/angela-merkel-forms-germany-coalition
Benedict Brogan re-tweets: "Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo says UK papers intercepted Gibraltar border were not in diplomatic bag so no law breach"
Any comment on treaty renegotiation? I think the SPD made some negative noises early on, but wondering where it came out in the end?
Unlike him to ignore a passing band wagon.....
Irrespective of your politics mourn the passing of Auricaria.
My wife is very sad. I never could do even one clue :-)
We'd be kind of sad to see you go, but if you must then go on, can't really be bothered to do anything to stop you.
(Best example of use is if you are watching something terrible on TV, but can't be bothered to get up and pick up the remote to change channel you might have a "vellity" for it)
Among those certain to vote (59%); excluding DK/refused:
Lab 36%
Con 29%
Ukip 27%
Oth 8%
Mr. Easterross, there are a few factors in play. There are people who are genuinely apathetic, but those who are interested in this sort of thing may well be feeling the fatigue of debate already (over 9 months still to go, everyone). It's also, as mentioned below, a decision for Scots. Salmond may be doing a competent job of driving the nation apart, but that won't help foster good relations if Yes actually wins.
Personally, I hope No wins decisively.
515 sample size gives a 5.19% confidence interval at a confidence level of 99%
http://m.psychologytoday.com/blog/divorce-busting/200803/the-walkaway-wife-syndrome
I think few care deeply whether Scotland leaves or stays in the Union (and no doubt many Scots are in the same camp). What
Most want is for the moaning to stop, and if that requires a divorce then so be it.
This lack of interest in Scotlands decision and debate does not mean that there will be lack of interest in the terms of seperation. My experience is that divorces get much more hostile as soon as the Lawyers start looking at the assets.
Dear Scotland: Please just get on with it and leave.
That way we can be the ones to moan for special attention.
Yours Sincerely,
The North-East of England
There's nothing new in that, but this bit is interesting:
La Comisión considera que el tratado (en su artículo 49) es claro en lo que respecta a un tercer país que solicite la adhesión a la UE. Pero los nacionalistas escoceses lo ven de otra manera: Escocia es un territorio que ya está dentro de la UE y en caso de una independencia pactada bastaría con alterar los tratados, siempre con el acuerdo de cada uno de los Veintiocho. Eso emparenta directamente a Escocia con Cataluña: Alex Salmond ha tratado de desligar por todos los medios la cuestión escocesa de la catalana —con el argumento de que Escocia no sentaría ningún precedente para Cataluña, repetido una y mil veces en Edimburgo— para evitar un eventual veto español, mientras que los políticos catalanes tratan de hacer todo lo contrario.
Rough translation:
The Commission considers that the Treaty (in article 49) is clear in laying out what would happen if a third-party country asks to become an EU member state. But the Scottish nationalists see it differently: Scotland is already inside the EU and in the case of an agreed independence it would be enough to alter existing treaties, providing there is unanimous agreement of the 28 member states. This puts Scotland in exactly the same situation as Catalonia; Alex Salmond has tried in every way to decouple the Scottish question from the Catalonian one - repeating a thousand and one times that Scotland would represent no precedent for Catalonia - in order to prevent a Spanish veto, while at the same time Catalonian politicians claim the exact opposite.
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2013/11/26/actualidad/1385495775_440956
Crappy, ill thought out divorce metaphor #207 in a long, long list.
It was only a few weeks ago that you were claiming that Laura Sandys was certain to be re-elected because she is the grand-daughter of Churchill. Which sounded like the forelock tugging nonsense that has contributed to the Scottish Conservatives being the most underachieveing political party in the western world.
English Regions are at the back of the queue for government spending, not helped by having London oriented carpetbaggers as MPs who care more for political advancement than looking after their constituents.
I do expect the terms of seperation to be very acrimonious. No Scots or rUK politician could risk the electoral obliteration that would result from being a soft touch. Most divorces turn hostile, even if initially amicable, when the lawyers get started, and both parliaments are stuffed with lawyers!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_the_consequences_of_devolution_for_the_House_of_Commons
Longevity - over 300 years, less than half a century (and enormous changes have recently occurred)
Representation - previous PM was Scottish and previous 2 Chancellors were Scottish, one commissioner from many and a high representative
Democracy - power has shifted from the centre to Scotland, power has been taken (often with the collusion of deceitful politicians such as Labour) from the UK to the centre (Brussels)
Cost - highly debatable (and debated), the EU is a definite net cost as we pay in a ridiculous sum each year (higher than need be thanks to Blair surrendering half the rebate because he wanted to be president one day)
A U-turn too far, even for them?
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell13m
Yet more proof that pretending to be Ukip-lite does not help the Tories http://gu.com/p/3kyy7/tw via @guardian
Labour Press Team@labourpress11m
.@bbc4today has no Labour rep despite fact it's Cameron playing catch up with Labour on migration.
And there really seems to be a pattern here on PB that the pro-independence counter to the above points is 'Lies and bluster', 'Scaremongering' and, what's the other one, 'You're just saying we're too poor, too wee, too stupid'. How about you actually counter the points, perhaps...?
The closest thing to a response was Labour's despicable and feeble attempt to break up England into limp-wristed, weak-kneed, bedwetting regional assemblies.
An English Parliament is the only solution (realistically, given devolution can't be stopped entirely now).
Labour are starting to make anti-immigration noises too, and out-kippering Cameron. tim to vote LD at the next election?
So it does not cease to be a question should scotland decide on independence.
It will never be tackled in an all party manner that is satisfactory to labour the libdems and the tories so that leaves either a party willing to stand for election on the platform you suggest or a sufficent majority achieved by a party willing to enact voting curbs on those MPs from the devolved areas. This would of course create a two-tier system of MPs (if not more tiers than that) as well as some very peculiar ramifications for what constitutes a 'majority' for certain types of legislation.
McKay's proposals are on the thin and safe side yet I assure you that scottish labour will no more countenance them than some scottish lib dems.
"In October I commissioned Survation to undertake a series of polls, mainly in marginal and frequently Labour-held constituencies ... In particular I was interested in the relationship between UKIP and Labour and whether in some Northern areas, where the Conservative brand is badly damaged, UKIP might have actually established itself as the official opposition to Labour."
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Alan-Bown-Statement.pdf
http://catalanassembly.org/2013/09/19/barcelona-the-capital-of-our-country-catalonia-comercial-video/
The past history of similar seperations, whether Ireland and UK, Sudan and South Sudan, the Baltics or Caucuses from the Soviet Union, former Yugoslavia, or even Ukraine and USSR or Czech and Slovakia, is that relations deteriate after seperation, and so does mutual trade. It is not obvious that a Scottish rUK seperation would be different, though I am not forecasting a re-run of Culloden!
The Times of London @thetimes
Will Hug A Husky be Cameron's next green campaign? Great cartoon today from Peter Brookes http://thetim.es/fUpjuZ pic.twitter.com/uZYBBSGBgQ
You surprise me!
Anyone would think Farage was the LotO.......
Office for National Statistics: economy grew by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2013
Good positive growth...
Cameron is stepping away from a piece of PR crap, ed is expressly flip flopping from what he said as a minister three years ago for the sole reason he thinks it might get him into power. Truly this man is a son of Brown.
Given that a considerable amount of support for UKIP has come from non Tory sources your concentration on one particular bete noir for you appears to be a perfect example of Einstein's definition of insanity.
The point is that they're pretty much in the same position now - a semi-autonomous region with a strong national identity who might want to go it alone. The point is, if Scotland votes yes, joins the EU and is even remotely successful in the short term, it will be a huge boon to those who want Catalan independence.
That's a veritable deluge of Fakery to measure up against one mere supposed quote about "green Crap" which was subsequently denied by Cammie's spinners. If one deniable quote is all it takes to convince you that Cammie really means it this time then I fear it is clear who is being gullible here.
this is despite the fact that no agreement on (a) minimum wages, (b) the budget, or (c) gay marriage