"I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening."
Philip_Thompson said:
"Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!"
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
Piddy is in my top five media performers of this election. She's sparky.
The others are lovely Layla, Chukka, Rishi Sunak and Sal Brinton. So something for everyone there.
I can't think who Sal Brinton is off the top of my head, but Rishi Sunak should surely make the Cabinet next term.
There is definitely something going on with the Majority betting market. 1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
On Sunday Betfred went from 4/9 when I set out to 2/5 when I reached the shop. I had to ask them to check.
I would however imagine Boris needs at least a 5 or 6 point lead for a majority so if there is a polling decline from here on in he'll need it to be a a little bit gentler than 2 years ago.
The tiresome repetition of bigoted cliches like "Pale, male, stale" won't do you much good in a world where such people actually exist and vote. See 'deplorables' for further information.
OK. But we need a female leader for Labour, we really do, thus not 'male', and I personally do not want to lurch all the way back to timid centrism, that would be the 'stale'. Then I added in the 'pale' for no particular reason except to use the phrase. Which was wrong of me. Happy to amend to 'male and stale' only without the 'pale'.
Deplorables? That was not a bigoted cliche. That was a politician daring to "tell it like it is" and getting punished for it.
What Labour needs is the best leader for the job. Appointing someone by gender gives a 50% risk of a sub-optimal outcome.
To be fair, if I recall correctly BigG went on a cruise to Alaska, which may be within the bounds of acceptability?
I have been on cruises to Alaska, Japan and China, Antarctica, The Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, east and west Mediterranean, Transatlantic to Nova Scotia, New England and New York just to name a few.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places....
Or you could be an international spy. Suddenly it all makes sense...
Why not. My wife and I would make a great pair of Bonds
There is definitely something going on with the Majority betting market. 1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
IMO its fair price is 1.25.
I would lump on if it were not for the fact that my portfolio is already heavily that way inclined.
Just think, in 2 weeks 4 days social media will be awash with those tedious posts about taking a pen to the polling station to see off the great establishment pencil vote changing scam
Cookie said: "What Labour needs is the best leader for the job. Appointing someone by gender gives a 50% risk of a sub-optimal outcome."
Yes - if by "optimal" you mean the "likelihood of winning next time". For many LP members other considerations come into play - i.e. electing a female leader for virtue signalling purposes.
I think Cooper happens to be the best candidate anyway.
Its not how it is. A quarter of Americans are not deplorable.
Trump is. But not a quarter of Americans.
Agreed. And if you check the full HRC quote in context you will see that she did too.
“The full quote in context” should be a good defence. Unfortunately, it is not: see “there is no such thing as society”, Ed Milliband’s “ No I don’t”, and so on.
I love election night. My mouth waters at the very thought of it. I`ll be in front of TV (BBC of course) until I fall asleep on sofa at about 3am. Then my alarm will wake me up again at 6am. Bliss.
Then I figure out how much of the family allowance I`ve lost.
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
Given that a strong Tory majority would probably see the end of Corbyn I’m not sure he would be that heartbroken.
Possibly you're right; unsurprisingly disingenuous if that's his real unstated objective. Or else he just can't control his urge to be involved...
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
"a One Nation Conservative like Boris" I think you're a little out of date.
How is Boris anything but One Nation?
As much a small group of Europhiles in the last Parliament tried to co-opt the term One Nation to mean Europhile. One Nation ≠ Europhile.
You clearly have a misunderstanding as to what One Nation Conservatism is. It is a philosophy that is genuinely conservative (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-nation_conservatism ) . Johnson and his pals are anything but this form of conservatism; indeed I would argue that they are not conservatives at all.Boris Johnson is not a One Nation Conservative, because he has adopted a right wing revolutionary agenda to suit his career ambition with the dregs that are left of the Conservative membership. He would be in favour of anything that advances the cause of Boris Johnson.
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
On the other hand, he'll take a Boris Govt. and a crushed Corbyn, retiring from the fray.
Indeed he surely might be happy with that (alas, imho)! Though I sense his pronouncement was more driven by desire to make his views public rather than that, or by objective-lead thinking...
What Labour needs is the best leader for the job. Appointing someone by gender gives a 50% risk of a sub-optimal outcome.
But the attribute of being a woman is a valid part of the mix that will make for the best leader. It is a genuine political problem for Labour that they have never had a female leader. And only a woman can address that particular problem. Of course they must not choose somebody purely based on that. It is far from the only problem they have. And if there were a standout candidate, head and shoulders above the rest, who happened to be male, then of course they should go for that person. But such is not my perception of the choice atm.
To be fair, if I recall correctly BigG went on a cruise to Alaska, which may be within the bounds of acceptability?
I have been on cruises to Alaska, Japan and China, Antarctica, The Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, east and west Mediterranean, Transatlantic to Nova Scotia, New England and New York just to name a few.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places....
Or you could be an international spy. Suddenly it all makes sense...
Why not. My wife and I would make a great pair of Bonds
I remain in need of more on the ground info/feelings, etc. Polls are very useful but it's always the quiet on the ground which is the hardest to cope with!
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
On the other hand, he'll take a Boris Govt. and a crushed Corbyn, retiring from the fray.
Indeed he surely might be happy with that (alas, imho)! Though I sense his pronouncement was more driven by desire to make his views public rather than that, or by objective-lead thinking...
Like him or loathe him, there are still probably a lot of people who listen to what he says and take note.
MarqueeMark said: "Or an assessment that with the Manifestos now out, Labour has blown it...."
To be fair, it would have been difficult for Labour to repeat the trick twice. And of course they didn`t have the Tories self-destructing (yet).
The comparison chart for the Tory lead now vs 2017 has just about crossed over.
The trajectories are very different though so I wonder if those betting with the last war in mind (me included) are starting to think it might actually be different this time.
MarqueeMark said: "Or an assessment that with the Manifestos now out, Labour has blown it...."
To be fair, it would have been difficult for Labour to repeat the trick twice. And of course they didn`t have the Tories self-destructing (yet).
Labour's Manifesto comes across like a six year old kid, writing out a 587 page entire stock inventory of Hamley's as his letter to Santa.....
A good analogy, which however has slightly less potency when delivered by someone who believes in Brexit. Brexit is the ultimate in infantile political philosophy.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
"a One Nation Conservative like Boris" I think you're a little out of date.
How is Boris anything but One Nation?
As much a small group of Europhiles in the last Parliament tried to co-opt the term One Nation to mean Europhile. One Nation ≠ Europhile.
Being friends with Steve Bannon, describing gay people as “bum boys”, black people as “picaninnies”, Muslim women as “letterboxes” (I could go on) makes one many things - but not “one nation”. Adding in quasi fascist extremists like Raab and Patel in the cabinet to his narcissistic extemism, it is nailed on that this will be the last election in British history. The “mandate” of 2016 is enough to legitimise government by fiat in the eyes of your party.
I would however imagine Boris needs at least a 5 or 6 point lead for a majority so if there is a polling decline from here on in he'll need it to be a a little bit gentler than 2 years ago.
From this point on, in 2017 it was more a question of systematic polling error, rather than a decline over time.
Just for fun, yesterday I took the Britain Elects polling average, adjusted it with reference to the average error of the final polls in 2017, and stuck it into electoralcalculus. The projection was a Tory majority of 20.
I love election night. My mouth waters at the very thought of it. I`ll be in front of TV (BBC of course) until I fall asleep on sofa at about 3am. Then my alarm will wake me up again at 6am. Bliss.
Then I figure out how much of the family allowance I`ve lost.
I used to love election night. *BONG* No drama like it. *BONG* Then 2017 happened. *BONG* And gave us theimminent prospect of a hard left government. *BONG* I've never wanted a Labour government, but before 2017 I wasn't genuinely scared of one. *BONG* I think now there's maybe a bit too much drama now. *BONG* I don't think I'll be able to bring myself to watch it this time. *BONG* The prospect of Corbyn and his thugs in power is too terrifying to contemplate. *BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
“The full quote in context” should be a good defence. Unfortunately, it is not: see “there is no such thing as society”, Ed Milliband’s “ No I don’t”, and so on.
Sadly true. It's a good defence only if the jury are fit for purpose. And much of the time they are not.
MarqueeMark said: "Or an assessment that with the Manifestos now out, Labour has blown it...."
To be fair, it would have been difficult for Labour to repeat the trick twice. And of course they didn`t have the Tories self-destructing (yet).
Labour's Manifesto comes across like a six year old kid, writing out a 587 page entire stock inventory of Hamley's as his letter to Santa.....
A good analogy, which however has slightly less potency when delivered by someone who believes in Brexit. Brexit is the ultimate in infantile political philosophy.
You not a fan of Brexit Nigel? You should have mentioned it. ;-)
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
"a One Nation Conservative like Boris" I think you're a little out of date.
How is Boris anything but One Nation?
As much a small group of Europhiles in the last Parliament tried to co-opt the term One Nation to mean Europhile. One Nation ≠ Europhile.
Being friends with Steve Bannon, describing gay people as “bum boys”, black people as “picaninnies”, Muslim women as “letterboxes” (I could go on) makes one many things - but not “one nation”. Adding in quasi fascist extremists like Raab and Patel in the cabinet to his narcissistic extemism, it is nailed on that this will be the last election in British history. The “mandate” of 2016 is enough to legitimise government by fiat in the eyes of your party.
What has Patel done in office to justify you calling her a 'quasi fascist'?
She is attacked and pilloried by many on here but the more I see of her, the more of a sensible moderate she seems to be.
I am not a fan of Raab. Him, JRM etc I'd be happy to see junked from the Cabinet after the election.
EDIT: I don't believe Johnson is friends with Bannon who is vile scum.
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
I was a 3 quid Tory voting for JC and TW.
I laughed like a drain but on reflection I think i'd rather have safe centrist Blair types running Labour than risk the extremist fringes giving us a 70s redux.
I don't pretend to understand the thinking of the Lab membership but as an outsider it seems their appetite for ideological purity hasn't yet waned so I expect Corbyn v2.0.
I remain in need of more on the ground info/feelings, etc. Polls are very useful but it's always the quiet on the ground which is the hardest to cope with!
From the people I know (friends, colleagues, family) the free broadband was seen as a joke and the WASPI bribe has people very upset. Even a few very lefty Labour types I know are ready to desert the party over it and stay home, "£58bn would be better spent helping those without privilege, not old rich white women".
On the other side I've got a sense that Jez's Marxist manifesto has got Tory remainers racing back to us from the Lib Dems. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see us retain and pick up a few more seats than expected in the leafier remainy parts of London that the Lib Dems are pouring resources into.
Reposted from two weeks ago, odds at bottom tweaked accordingly. I really think there is value here:
If Labour loses big at the election, and working on the assumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.
The last Labour Party leader process in 2015 worked as follows:
- 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable - time for nominations - time for hustings - ballot papers produced and distributed - 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015) - results announced 12th September
In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If, following the GE, Corbyn announced a wish to step down, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide the timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.
Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.
I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:
- Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.9 - April - June 2020 - BET at 8 - July 2020 or later - BET at 4.4 - 2020 or later - BET 1.35
"I don't pretend to understand the thinking of the Lab membership but as an outsider it seems their appetite for ideological purity hasn't yet waned so I expect Corbyn v2.0."
Yep, that`s why I have money (at long odds) on Long-Bailey and Piddock.
Reposted from two weeks ago, odds at bottom tweaked accordingly. I really think there is value here:
If Labour loses big at the election, and working on the assumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.
The last Labour Party leader process in 2015 worked as follows:
- 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable - time for nominations - time for hustings - ballot papers produced and distributed - 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015) - results announced 12th September
In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If, following the GE, Corbyn announced a wish to step down, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide the timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.
Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.
I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:
- Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.9 - April - June 2020 - BET at 8 - July 2020 or later - BET at 4.4 - 2020 or later - BET 1.35
All entirely sensible, but I thought the EHRC reported in January? Every chance he'll have to go then, surely?
Reposted from two weeks ago, odds at bottom tweaked accordingly. I really think there is value here:
If Labour loses big at the election, and working on the assumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.
The last Labour Party leader process in 2015 worked as follows:
- 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable - time for nominations - time for hustings - ballot papers produced and distributed - 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015) - results announced 12th September
In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If, following the GE, Corbyn announced a wish to step down, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide the timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.
Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.
I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:
- Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.9 - April - June 2020 - BET at 8 - July 2020 or later - BET at 4.4 - 2020 or later - BET 1.35
I haven’t looked at these since last time but I recall some difference in the definition of “exit date”. For some it seemed to be safe of resignation. For all, it seemed a bit vague. Scared me off.
"I don't pretend to understand the thinking of the Lab membership but as an outsider it seems their appetite for ideological purity hasn't yet waned so I expect Corbyn v2.0."
Yep, that`s why I have money (at long odds) on Long-Bailey and Piddock.
Time_to_Leave said: "I haven’t looked at these since last time but I recall some difference in the definition of “exit date”. For some it seemed to be safe of resignation. For all, it seemed a bit vague. Scared me off."
The main Betfair market that I`m looking at says:
"For clarity for settlement purposes, leading the party in an "acting leader" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual`s tenure as party leader. "
So, my logic goes, Corbyn will not be replaced until 20th April at the earliest.
Time_to_Leave said: "I haven’t looked at these since last time but I recall some difference in the definition of “exit date”. For some it seemed to be safe of resignation. For all, it seemed a bit vague. Scared me off."
The main Betfair market that I`m looking at says:
"For clarity for settlement purposes, leading the party in an "acting leader" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual`s tenure as party leader. "
So, my logic goes, Corbyn will not be replaced until 20th April at the earliest.
I agree with that, especially with the current vacancy for deputy leader. A departure of H1 2020 is almost effectively a proxy bet on Labour going below, say, 240 seats. I guess that would be my only other thought - is it possible to expose yourself to almost the same risk at better odds?
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Macron was elected by accident. The Republicain voters have learnt from their Fillon escapade and if he puts up Juppe will be easily selected candidate and then elected as President. And he'll be pretty good in my view. Lets be honest Macron isn't much of an act to follow.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8EQFhj8ca4
The others are lovely Layla, Chukka, Rishi Sunak and Sal Brinton. So something for everyone there."
I have a nice little 250/1 bet tucked away for Rishi Sunak. Rising star.
That's the level of deplorables.
I would lump on if it were not for the fact that my portfolio is already heavily that way inclined.
It's now 1.41.
That's not passage of time - one morning is trivial vs total length of time to go.
Surely there must be some inside info somewhere?
Yes - if by "optimal" you mean the "likelihood of winning next time". For many LP members other considerations come into play - i.e. electing a female leader for virtue signalling purposes.
I think Cooper happens to be the best candidate anyway.
I love election night. My mouth waters at the very thought of it. I`ll be in front of TV (BBC of course) until I fall asleep on sofa at about 3am. Then my alarm will wake me up again at 6am. Bliss.
Then I figure out how much of the family allowance I`ve lost.
So yes, you are right.
To be fair, it would have been difficult for Labour to repeat the trick twice. And of course they didn`t have the Tories self-destructing (yet).
Though I sense his pronouncement was more driven by desire to make his views public rather than that, or by objective-lead thinking...
The trajectories are very different though so I wonder if those betting with the last war in mind (me included) are starting to think it might actually be different this time.
Just for fun, yesterday I took the Britain Elects polling average, adjusted it with reference to the average error of the final polls in 2017, and stuck it into electoralcalculus. The projection was a Tory majority of 20.
*BONG*
*BONG*
*BONG*
She is attacked and pilloried by many on here but the more I see of her, the more of a sensible moderate she seems to be.
I am not a fan of Raab. Him, JRM etc I'd be happy to see junked from the Cabinet after the election.
EDIT: I don't believe Johnson is friends with Bannon who is vile scum.
I laughed like a drain but on reflection I think i'd rather have safe centrist Blair types running Labour than risk the extremist fringes giving us a 70s redux.
I don't pretend to understand the thinking of the Lab membership but as an outsider it seems their appetite for ideological purity hasn't yet waned so I expect Corbyn v2.0.
On the other side I've got a sense that Jez's Marxist manifesto has got Tory remainers racing back to us from the Lib Dems. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see us retain and pick up a few more seats than expected in the leafier remainy parts of London that the Lib Dems are pouring resources into.
If Labour loses big at the election, and working on the assumption that Corbyn steps down, I`ve been looking at the timing of his departure for betting purposes.
The last Labour Party leader process in 2015 worked as follows:
- 13 May 2015 NEC sets out timetable
- time for nominations
- time for hustings
- ballot papers produced and distributed
- 1 month window to vote (to 10th September 2015)
- results announced 12th September
In summary, the process took 4 Months to elect a new leader. If, following the GE, Corbyn announced a wish to step down, and assuming a week for NEC to set up their meeting to decide the timetable, this would take us to 20th April for a new leader to be installed.
Corbyn, I argue, would remain leader until a replacement is elected. And Betfair rules state that an acting leader is still counted as the leader.
I draw the following conclusions, but would appreciate your comments on my logic. All bets are with Betfair:
- Corbyn departure date 10/19 - 12/19 - clear LAY at 3.9
- April - June 2020 - BET at 8
- July 2020 or later - BET at 4.4
- 2020 or later - BET 1.35
"I don't pretend to understand the thinking of the Lab membership but as an outsider it seems their appetite for ideological purity hasn't yet waned so I expect Corbyn v2.0."
Yep, that`s why I have money (at long odds) on Long-Bailey and Piddock.
Otherwise your logic feels right to me.
The main Betfair market that I`m looking at says:
"For clarity for settlement purposes, leading the party in an "acting leader" role (eg while a successor is being sought) will be included as the individual`s tenure as party leader. "
So, my logic goes, Corbyn will not be replaced until 20th April at the earliest.