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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that’s persuaded me that turnout will be greater than 66.4%
When it became clear that we were going to have a December general election the general view was this would inevitably lead to a lower turnout than the 68.8% of GE2017. The argument was that at this time of year the days are getting very short and and it will be harder to both campaign and to persuade voters to turn out on. My view is that what drives turnout is how important the election is seen to be not when it is held.
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For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
The Tory anthem for the GE.
It seems to me he’s going to fart out a new bung every day between now and polling day in the desperate hope it grabs the headlines and changes the narrative.
They don't like to vote for a loser.
And I'm not sure how many Remainers are going to bother, if it looks like Brexit is going to happen with winner Boris. What is the point in rewarding either Labour or the LibDems if they wouldn't work together to stop Brexit from happening?
Ever the contrarian, me...
'Theresa May: People need to know austerity is over'
https://tinyurl.com/vjtkx2h
'''Austerity is over,' says Philip Hammond as £12 billion windfall sees spending increase'
https://tinyurl.com/yycrv9lg
'Chancellor Sajid Javid declares end of austerity'
https://tinyurl.com/y4c5bfca
As I recall only about 85% of the 100% certainties actually did vote
2001 was the roof hasn't come in after all and we need 5 more years of party healing
Lib Dem polling suggests he's yesterday's man.
No reason to suppose Brits are more tolerant of bad weather than our American cousins.
Ha !
They have a tripwire on Mike's referral code if there is one.
A lot of sympathy very difficult etc.
But it's very expensive. To compensate the women would cost the average income tax payer £2000 ( £58 bil divided by 30 million tax payers). Unlike Labour we can't put that burden on the tax payer. To borrow would increase the burden further because the interest would have to be paid as well.
And welcome to Manchester! Everyone gets stuck at Deansgate. It's the busiest stretch of railway in the north, as Sunil can no doubt confirm.
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, as Bessie wouldn't say.
Labour going to force developers to build and pay for 50k "starter homes", to be sold at approx 40% discount by the look of it.
"Healey said in Boris Johnson’s constituency of Uxbridge, in London, where the average house price is £350,000, the price of new homes built in this way could be just £190,000. The properties would be earmarked as first-time buyer homes in perpetuity, and would have to be sold on at a discount to market rates."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/24/jeremy-corbyn-vows-to-take-on-exploitative-landlords-if-elected-pm
At an average UK house price of 250k, I make that a subsidy of 5 billion.
How many years profit is that for the entire industry?
Carry on.
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1198892130913181696
I think sympathy is a bit misplaced. Rather, a patient recounting of the facts, i.e. warnings since the 1990s, aim for equality between the sexes, affordability in the face of increased longevity and so on. Non-waspi onlookers have a legitimate interest in the matter, and that should also be made clear.
If I were CCHQ or an anti-abortion activist, I'd concentrate on the issue of gender-choice abortion. That sounds more plausible and more scary.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Survation?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019/dup-could-work-with-labour-if-it-was-no-longer-led-by-corbyn-38722057.html
Account for commonwealth citizens, EU citizens and non-Scottish UK Residents who didn't vote because they felt it wasn't appropriate and that probably would have got turnout to 90%.
The last 10% is the dual registered, the dead and the really, really couldn't be arsed.
The waspi women are being used by labour in an attempt to improve their poll ratings and it is absurd in the extreme
The waspi women's case is currently on appeal having already lost their case and the government's stance has to be sympathetic but cannot make any decision until the result of the appeal is known. If the appeal court confirms the waspi women do not have a case then it would be ridiculous to pay 58 billion in compensation. Indeed I would expect a judicial review outlawing such a huge payment
However, if the court rules in favour of the women then the government will be required to compensate
McDonnell's blatant bribe says all you need to know about this marxist cabal running the labour party and the country needs to unite behind Boris as he said yesterday
'lets have a Corbyn free Christmas'
On topic I've long expected this to be a high turnout election. Don't forget turnout for the EU Referendum itself was 72.21%
Who that helps is another question. High turnout in 2017 helped Labour.
Don't disagree but I think they have to say the sympathy stuffy not appear heartless. The important point is to emphasis that tax payers will take a material hit thereby focussing minds.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1198890308714586112?s=20
Boris leads by 21% as best PM
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1198891456762720258?s=20
Tories still seen as having the best campaign
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1198891463431671808?s=20
Austerity is a word that means different things to different people. Those opposing government spending policies were successful in getting their version of the word widely accepted and so now claiming that we didn’t have austerity is a bit like complaining about the use of literally to mean figuratively: that fight has been lost.
One of the most interesting things is just how shallow the strength of New Labour was. If you suggested in the 00s the party would be in the hands of the hard left within 10-15 years you would have been derided.
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I have never heard a normal person use the word 'austerity' to refer to the general conditions of one of the world's wealthiest nations in 2019. It is a media, activist and politico term. The winter of 1947 would be a candidate for austerity.
ETA: it is not the voters who were Putin's stooges but those who campaigned for Brexit.
There are big pension subsidies given to the very well-off (which many on pb.com no doubt avail themselves of).
I don't see any problem in a means-tested one-off payment to some WASPI women in real hardship. I don't think it would cost that much.
Labour's plan is ridiculous, as it will involve "compensating" some very well-off people.
It might. Or the electorate might take the view they're off their rocker.
Mr. Tang, be fair. The sudden shift in Labour happened because of the idiocy of changing the rules and Labour MPs failing to understand their own system. They went from having substantial influence in the vote itself to becoming gatekeepers to keep our lunatics.
Then they put Corbyn on the shortlist.
When Help to Buy was created the excess builders profits have come from the pieces of land they purchased prior to HtB increasing land prices.
You're right that some/many grievances won't be addressed by leaving. Partly this is a failure of pro-EU parties/individuals who had powers to do things like restrict immigration/benefits and failed to act. Likewise, a failure to actually explain why they were pro-EU and instead play to the sceptic gallery on campaign (cf Lisbon and the referendum that never was) ended up stoking sceptical sentiment whilst not addressing any concerns raised.
They even had the chance to try and vote for May's deal then tack on a second referendum, but decided against it.
There are good things about the EU. And drawbacks as well. It's rather sad that the 2016 campaigns were a litany of doom-laden prophecies, outrageous complacency, and assorted fictions.
Said it before many times, but the biggest thing holding back a higher level of political discourse in this country is a largely incompetent and/or partisan media. More scrutiny of legislation and less of a focus on scalp-hunting and personalities would serve the UK well.
You can see similiar things where local occupancy requirements are attached to a property. Yes they will sell and at a discount but the smaller market does mean it takes longer.
My concern would be that people don't understand what they are buying. There are local occupancy houses in the Dales that have been on the market for years as the original buyer seriously overpaid and cannot find another buyer.
The point where you'd be 'off your rocker' to refuse.
From an electoral perspective, the policy might turn out to be beneficial for Labour. Labour does very badly with older voters, but that's 3.7m women who potentially now have a very good personal reason to vote Labour.
Ie is there a difference between which parties supporters are saying that whoever wins is important to them?
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/an-inflexible-brussels-is-damaging-its-own-interests-over-brexit/
@TheScreamingEagles thought over 75% was value at 6/1, maybe he was right
I think that's very unlikely. Having made a public pledge like this, to not honour it would be electoral suicide.
However will da yoof get to the polling stations?
I am now 50 myself and faced with the prospect of 17 more years of teaching.
Do you think I could persuade the Labour Party to cough up for the missed 17 years of pension?