For those of us who want to see a centre left labour party so when it eventually takes power it acts with maturity we need to see Labour pummeled into the ground. We want no wonk to think "lets nationalise telecoms" ever again.
A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint.
If Labour lose this election and replace Corbyn with a moderate like Keir Starmer they could yet recover. If however they elect another Corbynista like Burgon or Pidcock then the LDs will be real contenders to overtake them, Chuka looked quite prime ministerial this morning even if I disagreed with him talking about LD foreign policy and if he wins Cities of London and Westminster will be a contender to succeed Swinson as LD leader with a record of being able to squeeze the Labour vote in the LDs favour
McDonnell's WASPI business has gone down like absolute cold sick amongst my colleagues this morning. It's going to utterly infuriate women born in the early 60s in particular.
kinabalu said: "A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint."
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then? I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
5% (+3%) of Leave voters back Jo Swinson as Best PM? WTF?
But down three with current LibDem voters! lol. Even her own supporters are put off by her "Prime Minister" schtick.
In a poll where your Bozo is down 4% and Swinson is up 1%. Desperate stuff, Mr Mark.
I'd punt that 16% for the leader of the third UK party in response to "who would make the best PM" is historically extremely high.
That's it, run along to her defence, like some little lap dog.
Because she can't cut it without you yapping to protect her?
I think you need a lie down.
That Survation does seem to show Lab recovering a bit, but I do like the 2% of Tories backing Jezza as best PM!
On pensions, I would suggest that pension age should be life expectancy minus 12 years.
For one in 47 Boris-backing Tories to sit down and watch him debate with Corbyn and come away thinking that Corbyn would make the better PM is indeed remarkable.
1 or 2% will agree to almost anything in a poll because they didn’t read the question or are trolling .
I once told a phone poller that I didn’t have a phone line...
To be fair what was that even a question on a phone poll?
I strongly suspected the whole thing was a scam. The question was about my mobile phone line and I got a bit carried away...
I can’t think of anything so expensive I’d enjoy less than cruising, by the way.
The types of people you get on cruise ships these days are utterly ghastly.
When people get older they seem to purchase / collect the things they couldn't afford when they were wrong.
Mrs Eek found a late 50's / early 60's jigsaw of a cruise ship at the weekend - it explains everything.
Equally sat in Barbados back in September there was an afternoon of heavy rain. While sat in the lounge talking to various people someone said this is what a cruise ship is like but without the ability to escape
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
5% (+3%) of Leave voters back Jo Swinson as Best PM? WTF?
But down three with current LibDem voters! lol. Even her own supporters are put off by her "Prime Minister" schtick.
In a poll where your Bozo is down 4% and Swinson is up 1%. Desperate stuff, Mr Mark.
I'd punt that 16% for the leader of the third UK party in response to "who would make the best PM" is historically extremely high.
That's it, run along to her defence, like some little lap dog.
Because she can't cut it without you yapping to protect her?
I think you need a lie down.
That Survation does seem to show Lab recovering a bit, but I do like the 2% of Tories backing Jezza as best PM!
On pensions, I would suggest that pension age should be life expectancy minus 12 years.
For one in 47 Boris-backing Tories to sit down and watch him debate with Corbyn and come away thinking that Corbyn would make the better PM is indeed remarkable.
1 or 2% will agree to almost anything in a poll because they didn’t read the question or are trolling .
I once told a phone poller that I didn’t have a phone line...
To be fair what was that even a question on a phone poll?
I strongly suspected the whole thing was a scam. The question was about my mobile phone line and I got a bit carried away...
I do think that there is a proportion of poll replies that are given for 'shits and giggles' or to get through the questions to the end of the poll and that people afterwards overanalaysing the responses don't realise the people giving the answers may not have been entirely serious or considered in their replies.
For those of us who want to see a centre left labour party so when it eventually takes power it acts with maturity we need to see Labour pummeled into the ground. We want no wonk to think "lets nationalise telecoms" ever again.
A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint.
If Labour lose this election and replace Corbyn with a moderate like Keir Starmer they could yet recover. If however they elect another Corbynista like Burgon or Pidcock then the LDs will be real contenders to overtake them, Chuka looked quite prime ministerial this morning even if I disagreed with him talking about LD foreign policy and if he wins Cities of London and Westminster will be a contender to succeed Swinson as LD leader with a record of being able to squeeze the Labour vote in the LDs favour
I like Chukka. He has star quality, not least, like Boris, forename recognition which is not to be underestimated.
I've always considered him to be quite thin skinned - maybe a vanity thing - but he seems quite comfortable in his own skin recently. Much less easy to provoke.
I think he's always been a LibDem at heart. I win if the tories hold Cities constituency, but it will feel hollow.
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
Given that a strong Tory majority would probably see the end of Corbyn I’m not sure he would be that heartbroken.
The 'dad bet' stuff reminds me of when mine wanted me to put money on him for a Grand National horse. I slung a little on for myself too, as I'd be annoyed if it won and I made nothing on it.
Damned thing won the race.
Family betting in Yorkshire:
If your brother Judd tells you to put the bet on, then put the bet on.
Kes? It is somehow telling that our national coming of age novel so depressingly confirms we cannot escape our destiny. As West Ham fans like David Cameron know, however high our bubbles float, then, like my dreams, they fade and die.
Indeed.
For fans and nostalgics, there's a gentle documentary on iplayer called Greg Davies: Looking for Kes.
Turns out the actor playing Billy Casper has not changed at all in 51 years.
Downloaded for later. Though from what I remember of the film, it is depressing but with two funny scenes. Penalty!
For those of us who want to see a centre left labour party so when it eventually takes power it acts with maturity we need to see Labour pummeled into the ground. We want no wonk to think "lets nationalise telecoms" ever again.
A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint.
If Labour lose this election and replace Corbyn with a moderate like Keir Starmer they could yet recover. If however they elect another Corbynista like Burgon or Pidcock then the LDs will be real contenders to overtake them, Chuka looked quite prime ministerial this morning even if I disagreed with him talking about LD foreign policy and if he wins Cities of London and Westminster will be a contender to succeed Swinson as LD leader with a record of being able to squeeze the Labour vote in the LDs favour
I like Chukka. He has star quality, not least, like Boris, forename recognition which is not to be underestimated.
I've always considered him to be quite thin skinned - maybe a vanity thing - but he seems quite comfortable in his own skin recently. Much less easy to provoke.
I think he's always been a LibDem at heart. I win if the tories hold Cities constituency, but it will feel hollow.
Chuka is the biggest star on the centre left at the moment as Boris is on the right
Poor manoeuvring by Blair - not objective-lead; if Blair truly wished for a hung-parliament, and was being objective, he would have kept out of the fray - his intervention is likely to only harm Lab and not Cons, and only decreases the change of what he says he seeks (a hung parliament).
On the other hand, he'll take a Boris Govt. and a crushed Corbyn, retiring from the fray.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
In one of the RSS Conferences (2018?) I was explaining the concept of opinion polling to a staggeringly nice, extremely polite Chinese statistician. She was one of those people who are so polite they never disagree with you or ask you to explain things they don't understand. I was halfway thru my spiel when her increasingly fixed smile and nervous laughter finally percolated thru my thick skull: I was describing concepts that simply don't exist in her homeland. It was a very sobering conversation.
If Labour lose this election and replace Corbyn with a moderate like Keir Starmer they could yet recover. If however they elect another Corbynista like Burgon or Pidcock then the LDs will be real contenders to overtake them, Chuka looked quite prime ministerial this morning even if I disagreed with him talking about LD foreign policy and if he wins Cities of London and Westminster will be a contender to succeed Swinson as LD leader with a record of being able to squeeze the Labour vote in the LDs favour
The space between a Starmer and a continuity Corbyn is IMO big enough to settle down and raise a family. As to who, I don't know. Let's see what the choice is when it all kicks off next year.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
HYUFD said: Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
What`s the issue in Chingford and Woodford Green? I`ve looked at the stats - and no BXP to contend with - 50% voted leave - I`d have this as a safe Tory seat?? Maybe even value at 4/11.
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
Wouldn't be a hindrance in Tory or Labour party leadership elections!
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
HYUFD said: Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
What`s the issue in Chingford and Woodford Green? I`ve looked at the stats - and no BXP to contend with - 50% voted leave - I`d have this as a safe Tory seat?? Maybe even value at 4/11.
Momentum are flooding the seat, so shoring up the Tories vote.
McDonnell's WASPI business has gone down like absolute cold sick amongst my colleagues this morning. It's going to utterly infuriate women born in the early 60s in particular.
Swinson had this right. This issue is currently with the Ombudsman. Why make a premature move before that report unless you are looking for a cheap gesture 18 days to go.
kinabalu said: "A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint."
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then? I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
Camels are drawn towards feisty types.
There's a joke about humps in there somewhere, but I'm frankly too hungry to bother
McDonnell's WASPI business has gone down like absolute cold sick amongst my colleagues this morning. It's going to utterly infuriate women born in the early 60s in particular.
It's a completely bonkers policy. Quite apart from the fact that it is men, not women, who have been unfairly discriminated against on retirement age, it is a mind-blowingly expensive bung. Forking out £58bn to a group who weren't discriminated against in any way means not spending £58bn on other things - that is more than enough to fund adult social care generously for several years, for example,
Of course it is just McDonnell cynically trying to bribe these voters, but it's such an absurd and incredible bribe that it will be counterproductive.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
The Tories vote there is generally pro Leave, the remainder are anti Corbyn
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then? I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
Not sure yet. I really like Pidcock but she might be too left wing and also too young. RLB lacks charisma for me. Prefer Rayner to her, but not by a lot. Phillips I'm not a big fan of, although I know many are. Cooper, I would support, providing she shows some interest in ideology. I voted for her in 2015. Or did I? Yes, I think I did. Benn, no. Starmer, no. Kinnock, no. Pale, male, stale.
MikeSmithson said: "Swinson had this right. This issue is currently with the Ombudsman. Why make a premature move before that report unless you are looking for a cheap gesture 18 days to go."
I agree Mike - but Labour are desperate. If they can pick up this sizeable cohort of voters then this may be the difference between defeat and embarrassing defeat which may save Corbyn his job.
To be fair, if I recall correctly BigG went on a cruise to Alaska, which may be within the bounds of acceptability?
I have been on cruises to Alaska, Japan and China, Antarctica, The Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, east and west Mediterranean, Transatlantic to Nova Scotia, New England and New York just to name a few.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places. None of them have been Disney themed or other children friendly cruises
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
IDS losing his seat would be as hilarious as Bozo, Rees-Mogg or Corbyn losing theirs. All four would be just toooo much!
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then? I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
Not sure yet. I really like Pidcock but she might be too left wing and also too young. RLB lacks charisma for me. Prefer Rayner to her, but not by a lot. Phillips I'm not a big fan of, although I know many are. Cooper, I would support, providing she shows some interest in ideology. I voted for her in 2015. Or did I? Yes, I think I did. Benn, no. Starmer, no. Kinnock, no. Pale, male, stale.
The tiresome repetition of bigoted cliches like "Pale, male, stale" won't do you much good in a world where such people actually exist and vote. See 'deplorables' for further information.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
Johnson is a populist who would stoop to anything to feed his sad ego. It is similar to being a fascist.
Big-G said: "I have been on cruises to Alaska, Japan and China, Antarctica, The Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, east and west Mediterranean, Transatlantic to Nova Scotia, New England and New York just to name a few.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places. None of them have been Disney themed or other children friendly cruises"
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
IDS losing his seat would be as hilarious as Bozo, Rees-Mogg or Corbyn losing theirs. All four would be just toooo much!
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
Anyone hoping Labour loses badly enough to end the Corbyn project is likely to be disappointed. While the tories do genuinely seem to be on course for a majority at this point, hard to see them getting more than 350 or so seats. Labour is almost certainly going to remain above 200. LDs will likely be squeezed on the day as many waverers confront the stark choice before them, Corbyn or Johnson and vote against the one they dislike the most. Labour would remain comfortably the largest opposition party, and survive a wipe out. The party is already under control of the momentum left, who will never willingly cede control, and much of the moderate membership has long since left it.
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then? I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
Not sure yet. I really like Pidcock but she might be too left wing and also too young. RLB lacks charisma for me. Prefer Rayner to her, but not by a lot. Phillips I'm not a big fan of, although I know many are. Cooper, I would support, providing she shows some interest in ideology. I voted for her in 2015. Or did I? Yes, I think I did. Benn, no. Starmer, no. Kinnock, no. Pale, male, stale.
Laura Pillock? Eh gads!
Becky Bibbly-Bobbly has NO charisma, at least Rayner and Phillips do. Cooper has very little.
Benn and Starmer are smart, Kinnock is thicker than his Dad
HYUFD said: Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
What`s the issue in Chingford and Woodford Green? I`ve looked at the stats - and no BXP to contend with - 50% voted leave - I`d have this as a safe Tory seat?? Maybe even value at 4/11.
I think the demographics are shifting away from the Tories, like a lot of outer London/ inner home counties seats (ie more of the kind of people whose cricketing loyalties the previous MP might have questioned). Labour have a pretty strong candidate there too I believe. My model predicts a reasonably safe Tory hold but it doesn't control for demographics. The MRP poll might be insightful for this kind of seat I would guess. If Labour are doing really badly in seats with lots of 'traditional Labour voters' in and the national polls are right then they must be doing better somewhere else - perhaps it is in places like this?
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
IDS losing his seat would be as hilarious as Bozo, Rees-Mogg or Corbyn losing theirs. All four would be just toooo much!
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
Any one of these (or even all of them):
JRM IDS Raab Swinson Pidcock
Dame Margaret Beckett - for her role in Corbyn's election.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
IDS losing his seat would be as hilarious as Bozo, Rees-Mogg or Corbyn losing theirs. All four would be just toooo much!
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
Johnson is a populist who would stoop to anything to feed his sad ego. It is similar to being a fascist.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
Is that wise? Surely IDS should be acting as woke as possible - denouncing Brexit and advocating transgender rights for example - if he wants to save his seat in the face of a changing demographic.
IDS losing his seat would be as hilarious as Bozo, Rees-Mogg or Corbyn losing theirs. All four would be just toooo much!
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
I think that before you try learning what a fascist actually is, you need to spend some time with a grammar Nazi.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
Johnson is a populist who would stoop to anything to feed his sad ego. It is similar to being a fascist.
That makes no sense. Fascism is a clearly defined ideology.
Anyone hoping Labour loses badly enough to end the Corbyn project is likely to be disappointed. While the tories do genuinely seem to be on course for a majority at this point, hard to see them getting more than 350 or so seats. Labour is almost certainly going to remain above 200. LDs will likely be squeezed on the day as many waverers confront the stark choice before them, Corbyn or Johnson and vote against the one they dislike the most. Labour would remain comfortably the largest opposition party, and survive a wipe out. The party is already under control of the momentum left, who will never willingly cede control, and much of the moderate membership has long since left it.
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Labour strategists have made a massive mistake imho. They have written the manifesto that they dreamed of presenting all their lives: rammed full of radical stuff and huge sweeping changes to the economy.
But.
This was the wrong election to do it. This is the Brexit election. Labour left would have been better to hold their fire until the next election comes, when it is at least possible that voting for change will be the driver.
As it stands, polling wise, it looks like the country will reject this manifesto out of hand. And then RBL or Pidcock or whoever has a problem next time around.
Anyone hoping Labour loses badly enough to end the Corbyn project is likely to be disappointed. While the tories do genuinely seem to be on course for a majority at this point, hard to see them getting more than 350 or so seats. Labour is almost certainly going to remain above 200. LDs will likely be squeezed on the day as many waverers confront the stark choice before them, Corbyn or Johnson and vote against the one they dislike the most. Labour would remain comfortably the largest opposition party, and survive a wipe out. The party is already under control of the momentum left, who will never willingly cede control, and much of the moderate membership has long since left it.
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Labour strategists have made a massive mistake imho. They have written the manifesto that they dreamed of presenting all their lives: rammed full of radical stuff and huge sweeping changes to the economy.
But.
This was the wrong election to do it. This is the Brexit election. Labour left would have been better to hold their fire until the next election comes, when it is at least possible that voting for change will be the driver.
As it stands, polling wise, it looks like the country will reject this manifesto out of hand. And then RBL or Pidcock or whoever has a problem next time around.
I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening.
To be fair, if I recall correctly BigG went on a cruise to Alaska, which may be within the bounds of acceptability?
I have been on cruises to Alaska, Japan and China, Antarctica, The Arctic, Scandinavia and Svalbard, Iceland and Greenland, east and west Mediterranean, Transatlantic to Nova Scotia, New England and New York just to name a few.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places....
Or you could be an international spy. Suddenly it all makes sense...
Anyone hoping Labour loses badly enough to end the Corbyn project is likely to be disappointed. While the tories do genuinely seem to be on course for a majority at this point, hard to see them getting more than 350 or so seats. Labour is almost certainly going to remain above 200. LDs will likely be squeezed on the day as many waverers confront the stark choice before them, Corbyn or Johnson and vote against the one they dislike the most. Labour would remain comfortably the largest opposition party, and survive a wipe out. The party is already under control of the momentum left, who will never willingly cede control, and much of the moderate membership has long since left it.
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Labour strategists have made a massive mistake imho. They have written the manifesto that they dreamed of presenting all their lives: rammed full of radical stuff and huge sweeping changes to the economy.
But.
This was the wrong election to do it. This is the Brexit election. Labour left would have been better to hold their fire until the next election comes, when it is at least possible that voting for change will be the driver.
As it stands, polling wise, it looks like the country will reject this manifesto out of hand. And then RBL or Pidcock or whoever has a problem next time around.
I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening.
"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson". We are already in the alternate timeline...
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
Sunil, my guess is that the higher the turnout, the more incorrect the weightings used by pollsters to adjust for voter intention will be. So if they are correcting to increase the Tory score now from the raw data, then they will be overstating the Tories (and vice versa). Same for Lab and LDs.
Normally, my gut instinct would be then that the higher the turnout the more it would help Labour. But if the old Labour vote is split between Lab, LD and TBP, it may not be enough to change the results at a constituency level in all but a few seats.
Following the Waspie improvisation if the dial doesn't move much then I confidently expect McDonell to roll out the following, in this order, until it does:
1. Cancel all student loans and return all payments with interest. 2. Restore all "cuts" in welfare made over last decade with interest. 3. Free TV licences for all, paid for from contingency fund. 5. Repay all prescription charges made in last decade (with interest).
You`ve covered all three major parties there. You a Brexit Party supporter?
No, they don't have any MPs to lose their seats. I didn't include the SDP for similar reasons.
I'm in Scotland - for balance, I would have included John Mason MSP if this was a Holyrood election. I'm also not keen on Stewart McDonald (Glasgow South MP), but he's hardly a big name.
Oh, and from NI, I'd love to see Emma Little-Pengelly and Sammy Wilson get punted.
There is definitely something going on with the Majority betting market. 1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
I think assaulting your boyfriend in the middle of a Lib Dem conference, them all hushing it up for a few years, than calling it half his fault tends to be a bit of a hindrance to that ambition!
Camels are drawn towards feisty types.
Perhaps you could take a job running her IT support ?
It was a faulty cable -- rather than a faulty Cable -- that provoked her into the slap.
McDonnell's WASPI business has gone down like absolute cold sick amongst my colleagues this morning. It's going to utterly infuriate women born in the early 60s in particular.
Of course it is just McDonnell cynically trying to bribe these voters, but it's such an absurd and incredible bribe that it will be counterproductive might just work.
The tiresome repetition of bigoted cliches like "Pale, male, stale" won't do you much good in a world where such people actually exist and vote. See 'deplorables' for further information.
OK. But we need a female leader for Labour, we really do, thus not 'male', and I personally do not want to lurch all the way back to timid centrism, that would be the 'stale'. Then I added in the 'pale' for no particular reason except to use the phrase. Which was wrong of me. Happy to amend to 'male and stale' only without the 'pale'.
Deplorables? That was not a bigoted cliche. That was a politician daring to "tell it like it is" and getting punished for it.
Anyone hoping Labour loses badly enough to end the Corbyn project is likely to be disappointed. While the tories do genuinely seem to be on course for a majority at this point, hard to see them getting more than 350 or so seats. Labour is almost certainly going to remain above 200. LDs will likely be squeezed on the day as many waverers confront the stark choice before them, Corbyn or Johnson and vote against the one they dislike the most. Labour would remain comfortably the largest opposition party, and survive a wipe out. The party is already under control of the momentum left, who will never willingly cede control, and much of the moderate membership has long since left it.
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Labour strategists have made a massive mistake imho. They have written the manifesto that they dreamed of presenting all their lives: rammed full of radical stuff and huge sweeping changes to the economy.
But.
This was the wrong election to do it. This is the Brexit election. Labour left would have been better to hold their fire until the next election comes, when it is at least possible that voting for change will be the driver.
As it stands, polling wise, it looks like the country will reject this manifesto out of hand. And then RBL or Pidcock or whoever has a problem next time around.
I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening.
Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!
There is definitely something going on with the Majority betting market. 1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
It's also passage of time. A 10 point lead on the eve of polling day provides far more confidence than one 6 weeks or 6 months out. As the clock ticks down to polling day, the time available for a game-changer reduces. As long as the Tory lead remains quite large and stable, you'll see them drift in further - doesn't necessarily imply any punters have access to unpublished information.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
"a One Nation Conservative like Boris" I think you're a little out of date.
The tiresome repetition of bigoted cliches like "Pale, male, stale" won't do you much good in a world where such people actually exist and vote. See 'deplorables' for further information.
OK. But we need a female leader for Labour, we really do, thus not 'male', and I personally do not want to lurch all the way back to timid centrism, that would be the 'stale'. Then I added in the 'pale' for no particular reason except to use the phrase. Which was wrong of me. Happy to amend to 'male and stale' only without the 'pale'.
Deplorables? That was not a bigoted cliche. That was a politician daring to "tell it like it is" and getting punished for it.
Its not how it is. A quarter of Americans are not deplorable.
"I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening."
Philip_Thompson said:
"Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!"
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
There is definitely something going on with the Majority betting market. 1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
It's also passage of time. A 10 point lead on the eve of polling day provides far more confidence than one 6 weeks or 6 months out. As the clock ticks down to polling day, the time available for a game-changer reduces. As long as the Tory lead remains quite large and stable, you'll see them drift in further - doesn't necessarily imply any punters have access to unpublished information.
I do agree with this, but it's moved in from 1.46 overnight which i think is a greater movement than we've seen on any day since BXP stood aside, so assumed there was a bit more to it. Maybe not though!
To be fair, the original post was quite odious. Describing our government as "quasi fascist" when it has in fact called an election when the opposition spent some considerable time trying to stop it - and prevent the referendum result from being implemented - is deeply disingenuous and does a disservice to all those who have actually suffered at the hands of fascism.
Quite. The slow drip of othering, the appeal to emotion over evidence, the willingness to dogwhistle and to accept the support of extremists, the references to "will of the people" particularly when trashing constitutional arrangements, the willingness to work with Bannon and his network all mean that this government is proto-fascist, not quasi-fascist.
Honouring the victims of fascism includes remembering how it comes about.
Prepare for the most ugly result of an election ever beating 1983 by a whisker. Fortunately I have the means to take myself to France and providing Johnson's quasi fascist government doesn't impliment stuff that brings a reciprocal response from the French I can become a happy ex pat.
For those who are forced to live under this clown they have at least one thing to look forward to. No more Corbyn. One of the five people most responsible for this very British farce
Sarkozy was a quasi fascist.
Johnson is not.
It would be amusing if, following Roger's emigration, Le Pen won next time.
Roger is such an extremist himself he'd probably consider France under Le Pen in the EU to be less concerning than Britain under a One Nation Conservative like Boris out of it.
"a One Nation Conservative like Boris" I think you're a little out of date.
How is Boris anything but One Nation?
As much a small group of Europhiles in the last Parliament tried to co-opt the term One Nation to mean Europhile. One Nation ≠ Europhile.
Just think, in 2 weeks 4 days social media will be awash with those tedious posts about taking a pen to the polling station to see off the great establishment pencil vote changing scam
"I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening."
Philip_Thompson said:
"Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!"
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
Piddy is in my top five media performers of this election. She's sparky.
The others are lovely Layla, Chukka, Rishi Sunak and Sal Brinton. So something for everyone there.
"I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening."
Philip_Thompson said:
"Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!"
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
After 2017 the joke of extremists running Labour has worn thin. I wish for a sane opposition that I would not be petrified of them winning the election if we lose.
Comments
The types of people you get on cruise ships these days are utterly ghastly.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/27/passenger-in-clown-suit-prompts-mass-brawl-on-po-cruise-ship
"A big loss spells the end of the Corbyn project. I don't have a problem with this but I do want the party to retain a radical edge rather than go back to being the timid creature of 2015. Let's keep the goal of a serious attack on inequality but try to find a leader with more brains and less baggage. My sense is the country will soon tire of having an essentially comic figure as PM, so the next GE ought to be very winnable. In which case let's win it - but for a purpose, not just to hold the fort and tinker until the Tories' next stint."
Who do you want to be the next Labour Leader then?
I`d be most happy with Cooper or Benn (maybe Kinnock).
I would actually explode on a cruise.
Mrs Eek found a late 50's / early 60's jigsaw of a cruise ship at the weekend - it explains everything.
Equally sat in Barbados back in September there was an afternoon of heavy rain. While sat in the lounge talking to various people someone said this is what a cruise ship is like but without the ability to escape
"I can’t think of anything so expensive I’d enjoy less than cruising"
Ha ha. I`m with you - but worth saying that there are cruises and cruises.
A small-vessel wildlife cruise to the Arctic is not in the same taste ballpark as a package cruise in the Med for example.
I the olden days, I suppose the riff-raff was consigned to steerage.
To be fair, if I recall correctly BigG went on a cruise to Alaska, which may be within the bounds of acceptability?
I've always considered him to be quite thin skinned - maybe a vanity thing - but he seems quite comfortable in his own skin recently. Much less easy to provoke.
I think he's always been a LibDem at heart. I win if the tories hold Cities constituency, but it will feel hollow.
Johnson is not.
This is what it looks like. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_fuel_oil#/media/File:Residual_fuel_oil.JPG
I imagine, being a LibDem, that she makes her own hummus. I imagine her levantine heritage would mean her hummus is fantastic.
Yes, lovely, lovely Layla.
Am off for a lie down now.
In one of the RSS Conferences (2018?) I was explaining the concept of opinion polling to a staggeringly nice, extremely polite Chinese statistician. She was one of those people who are so polite they never disagree with you or ask you to explain things they don't understand. I was halfway thru my spiel when her increasingly fixed smile and nervous laughter finally percolated thru my thick skull: I was describing concepts that simply don't exist in her homeland. It was a very sobering conversation.
Lord Tebbit joining IDS on the campaign trail in his old seat of Chingford and Woodford Green tomorrow
What`s the issue in Chingford and Woodford Green? I`ve looked at the stats - and no BXP to contend with - 50% voted leave - I`d have this as a safe Tory seat?? Maybe even value at 4/11.
Getting quite aggressive
https://twitter.com/montie/status/1198917221738844160?s=20
Of course it is just McDonnell cynically trying to bribe these voters, but it's such an absurd and incredible bribe that it will be counterproductive.
He gets his dad who does not even live there
I agree Mike - but Labour are desperate. If they can pick up this sizeable cohort of voters then this may be the difference between defeat and embarrassing defeat which may save Corbyn his job.
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places. None of them have been Disney themed or other children friendly cruises
Perhaps their should be a poll for the person voters would most like to lose their seat
However, they have all been because my wife and I love being on ships and at sea and exploring new places. None of them have been Disney themed or other children friendly cruises"
I knew we`d flush you out!
JRM
IDS
Raab
Swinson
Pidcock
At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left. No way will they go for Starmer or Yvette Cooper etc.
Becky Bibbly-Bobbly has NO charisma, at least Rayner and Phillips do. Cooper has very little.
Benn and Starmer are smart, Kinnock is thicker than his Dad
The MRP poll might be insightful for this kind of seat I would guess. If Labour are doing really badly in seats with lots of 'traditional Labour voters' in and the national polls are right then they must be doing better somewhere else - perhaps it is in places like this?
"Any one of these (or even all of them):
JRM
IDS
Raab
Swinson
Pidcock"
You`ve covered all three major parties there. You a Brexit Party supporter?
But.
This was the wrong election to do it. This is the Brexit election. Labour left would have been better to hold their fire until the next election comes, when it is at least possible that voting for change will be the driver.
As it stands, polling wise, it looks like the country will reject this manifesto out of hand. And then RBL or Pidcock or whoever has a problem next time around.
"At best maybe Thornberry could get in, Corbyn aligned but not really hard left."
Can get 16/1 now on Thornberry (with Betfair). At one stage she was 4/1 favourite I think.
Normally, my gut instinct would be then that the higher the turnout the more it would help Labour. But if the old Labour vote is split between Lab, LD and TBP, it may not be enough to change the results at a constituency level in all but a few seats.
1. Cancel all student loans and return all payments with interest.
2. Restore all "cuts" in welfare made over last decade with interest.
3. Free TV licences for all, paid for from contingency fund.
5. Repay all prescription charges made in last decade (with interest).
If that lot don't work then it will be...
I'm in Scotland - for balance, I would have included John Mason MSP if this was a Holyrood election. I'm also not keen on Stewart McDonald (Glasgow South MP), but he's hardly a big name.
Oh, and from NI, I'd love to see Emma Little-Pengelly and Sammy Wilson get punted.
1.41 Tory majority is the shortest I've seen it for years (correct me if I'm wrong!), Perhaps it is natural movement but more likely there are some polls out there we don't know about yet.
It was a faulty cable -- rather than a faulty Cable -- that provoked her into the slap.
Deplorables? That was not a bigoted cliche. That was a politician daring to "tell it like it is" and getting punished for it.
I think you're a little out of date.
Trump is. But not a quarter of Americans.
"I still can't see the phrase "British Prime Minister Laura Pidcock" ever happening."
Philip_Thompson said:
"Would be hilarious to see her lose her seat at the election, if only for @Gallowgate 's reaction at seeing County Durham constituencies turning blue!"
Be careful what you wish for. Pidcock leading the Labour Party would be great news for you Tories.
Honouring the victims of fascism includes remembering how it comes about.
As much a small group of Europhiles in the last Parliament tried to co-opt the term One Nation to mean Europhile. One Nation ≠ Europhile.
The others are lovely Layla, Chukka, Rishi Sunak and Sal Brinton. So something for everyone there.