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  • kle4 said:

    It seems like SF and DUP might lose a seat or two as this suggests, but will much change? What incentive is there for the groups to start working together again?

    It's only a matter of WHEN, and not if, SF and DUP won't be the largest parties.
    I think it's dangerous to comment on Ulster politics if you're not native. So I don't.
    Native = a person born in a specified place or associated with a place by birth, whether subsequently resident there or not.

    What makes you think I'm not native (I assume northern Ireland)?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Floater said:

    Its a Terrrrrible night for the Tories Labour

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197672865304391681?s=20

    Another piss poor result from team trot
    What is with these numbers not making sense. If the gains and losses from last election are correct, it was Con win last time, so no Con gain.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Its a Terrrrrible night for the Tories Labour

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197672865304391681?s=20

    Another piss poor result from team trot
    What is with these numbers not making sense. If the gains and losses from last election are correct, it was Con win last time, so no Con gain.
    In multi-member wards, vote share changes are normally shown as being from the highest vote for each party at previous election.

    Whereas the councillor being replaced may not have been the one with the highest number of votes (and of course nobody is being replaced from other parties).

    So easiest to forget whether gain or loss - just look at the vote share change.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,605
    The Tories gained two council by-elections last night, one in Cardiff from Labour and one in Chichester from the LDs.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Er, I think you'll find that Peter Robinson was never married to Mary Robinson (!)
  • Floater said:
    As with the SNP - "Free Stuff" benefits the better off:

    "Labour’s manifesto includes a £600 million promise to scrap prescription charges in England. Broadly speaking, the old, the young, the poor, the disabled and the chronically sick are already exempt from charges: as a result 89% of prescriptions last year were provided free. The main beneficiaries of Labour’s policy to make the remaining 11% free of charge are therefore likely to be working-age people of reasonable financial means, and who are not chronically sick."

  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories gained two council by-elections last night, one in Cardiff from Labour and one in Chichester from the LDs.

    well spotted...IIRC in May 2017 the Tories had very good local elections only to be disappointed 3 weeks later.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    A pretty pisspoor panel, but she does look a little over stimulated.
    There's something anachronistic about Johnson's new Tory Party which hasn't been obvious since the early days of Thatcher. A lot depends on the zeitgeist. For all that the polls are saying this is by no means a popular government
    I think this a deeply unpopular government that is one of the results of pitching "people against parliament". It is likely to get a stay of execution because of the appalling state of the Labour party, but not for long. The stench of incompetence and mendacity of the Tories cannot be covered up for long.
    Fair enough, but can we consign the marxists to the scrap heap of history first.

    I like my local Lib Dem candidate - he would get my vote except the marxists must be kept out.
    No problem. A LD vote is a safe vote. Swinson has stated that she will not support Corbyn and Davey's financial rectitude is chalk and cheese compared to McDonnell's financial incontinence.
    Is that the same Swinson who signed a personal pledge in 2010 to vote against any rise in tuition fees, or a different one?

    Her word isn't worth anything to me. I don't know why it would be to you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories gained two council by-elections last night, one in Cardiff from Labour and one in Chichester from the LDs.

    well spotted...IIRC in May 2017 the Tories had very good local elections only to be disappointed 3 weeks later.
    Wasn't the election five weeks later?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Xtrain said:
    NOT appearing on a LibDem barchart somewhere near you.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    There's a wonderful aphorism by Warren Buffett that I'm a great believer of that goes something like this:

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with a reputation for poor performance, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    We humans like simple stories. Our brains are hardwired to believe them. Dominic Cummings is the superhero in this tale: with insight, and brilliance and intelligence.

    The reality is simpler. People, even most Remainers, want Brexit done. Corbyn is a dangerous joke. Johnson is like syphilis when the alternative is herpes. At least you know that you can get rid of him without too many consequences later.

    But Boris Johnson is a man who sways in the slightest breath of wind if he sees a second of advantage. (And by advantage, I mean one second longer in power.) Like Tony Blair, who I sadly think he resembles, he is a man with only a passing interest in the truth.

    And he is likely to be handed a large majority. Not because of the brilliance of Cummings, but because he's in the right place at the right time.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic. (He's certainly better than the alternatives.) But I fear that the next five years are not going to go well for the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234

    Xtrain said:
    NOT appearing on a LibDem barchart somewhere near you.....
    Clearly the problem is that Labour didn't stand to split the anti-EU vote.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    There's a wonderful aphorism by Warren Buffett that I'm a great believer of that goes something like this:

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with a reputation for poor performance, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    We humans like simple stories. Our brains are hardwired to believe them. Dominic Cummings is the superhero in this tale: with insight, and brilliance and intelligence.

    The reality is simpler. People, even most Remainers, want Brexit done. Corbyn is a dangerous joke. Johnson is like syphilis when the alternative is herpes. At least you know that you can get rid of him without too many consequences later.

    But Boris Johnson is a man who sways in the slightest breath of wind if he sees a second of advantage. (And by advantage, I mean one second longer in power.) Like Tony Blair, who I sadly think he resembles, he is a man with only a passing interest in the truth.

    And he is likely to be handed a large majority. Not because of the brilliance of Cummings, but because he's in the right place at the right time.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic. (He's certainly better than the alternatives.) But I fear that the next five years are not going to go well for the UK.
    Some other aphorisms seem potentially apposite here - the one about it being better to be lucky than skilful, for one. Possibly also the one about the golfer who seemed to get luckier the more he practiced.

    It's totally plausible that Johnson is just a chancer with a bunch of advantages from birth that are responsible for almost all his achievements. But, he's been doing this a while now, and whatever he's doing does seem to be working.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Its a Terrrrrible night for the Tories Labour

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197672865304391681?s=20

    Looks like the electorate gave it 110%
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    There's a wonderful aphorism by Warren Buffett that I'm a great believer of that goes something like this:

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with a reputation for poor performance, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    We humans like simple stories. Our brains are hardwired to believe them. Dominic Cummings is the superhero in this tale: with insight, and brilliance and intelligence.

    The reality is simpler. People, even most Remainers, want Brexit done. Corbyn is a dangerous joke. Johnson is like syphilis when the alternative is herpes. At least you know that you can get rid of him without too many consequences later.

    But Boris Johnson is a man who sways in the slightest breath of wind if he sees a second of advantage. (And by advantage, I mean one second longer in power.) Like Tony Blair, who I sadly think he resembles, he is a man with only a passing interest in the truth.

    And he is likely to be handed a large majority. Not because of the brilliance of Cummings, but because he's in the right place at the right time.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic. (He's certainly better than the alternatives.) But I fear that the next five years are not going to go well for the UK.
    Some other aphorisms seem potentially apposite here - the one about it being better to be lucky than skilful, for one. Possibly also the one about the golfer who seemed to get luckier the more he practiced.

    It's totally plausible that Johnson is just a chancer with a bunch of advantages from birth that are responsible for almost all his achievements. But, he's been doing this a while now, and whatever he's doing does seem to be working.
    https://xkcd.com/1827/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.

    Who knows?
    QT audiences are selected to a large extent by asking the local parties to suggest people. That's why you get lots of people cheering and making derisive noises - it's likely to be the members on each side. It doesn't tell you anything much about whichever location they happen to be in.
    Very informative. Perhaps that should be posted up front like a health warning on fags (Brit - informal). Should not the BBC be "correcting" this so that ordinary folk are represented rather than tribal geeks?
    Like I said last night, how many "ordinary folk" want to waste their time watching talentless politicians and shit-stirring journos shouting at each other on TV at that time of night - let alone go to sit on an uncomfortable chair in a draughty hall for hours on end for the privilege of being subjected to it?

    QT could, arguably, be a much better programme if advanced to a prime slot - on the news channel, mind you, not getting in the way of people's favourite soaps and such like - with a proper discussion of three or four questions submitted by the viewers at home, and without the useless studio audience.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    Cookie said:

    Floater said:

    marke0903 said:

    Loxwood (Chichester) result:

    CON: 61.8% (+17.4)
    LDEM: 29.9% (-25.7)
    GRN: 7.7% (+7.7)
    PAT: 0.6% (+0.6)

    Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.

    WE need a thread on this one ;-)
    Any local knowledge on Loxwood? Remainia or Leavistan?
    My brother and father live that way.

    Lots of Eastern European immigration but i'm surprised to see it change hands.

    I have never heard of Loxwood but wikipedia makes it sound like a small town between Camberwick Green and Chigley.

    "Loxwood is a small village and civil parish with several outlying settlements, including those at Alfold Bars, Gunshot Common, Flitchfold, Roundstreet Common, Drungewick Lane and Manor, and Wephurst Park"
    At first I thought you had mistyped Camberwell Green, then I read the post properly!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.

    Who knows?
    QT audiences are selected to a large extent by asking the local parties to suggest people. That's why you get lots of people cheering and making derisive noises - it's likely to be the members on each side. It doesn't tell you anything much about whichever location they happen to be in.
    Very informative. Perhaps that should be posted up front like a health warning on fags (Brit - informal). Should not the BBC be "correcting" this so that ordinary folk are represented rather than tribal geeks?
    Like I said last night, how many "ordinary folk" want to waste their time watching talentless politicians and shit-stirring journos shouting at each other on TV at that time of night - let alone go to sit on an uncomfortable chair in a draughty hall for hours on end for the privilege of being subjected to it?

    QT could, arguably, be a much better programme if advanced to a prime slot - on the news channel, mind you, not getting in the way of people's favourite soaps and such like - with a proper discussion of three or four questions submitted by the viewers at home, and without the useless studio audience.
    You know the politicians who go on there are trying to get Affirmation by Whooping. If there was no audience, they would have to engage with their fellow panellists, without the inbuilt clapometer telling them they have won the point already - with their tribal part of the audience.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I believe the change in votes in Scottish byelections is in comparison to the local elections of 2017:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Scottish_local_elections

    It should be remembered that SLAB did very badly in those.

    Sure that is consoling for them
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Its a Terrrrrible night for the Tories Labour

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197672865304391681?s=20

    Did you miss the Scottish one, you are usually not so reticent.
  • Good morning, everyone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Floater said:
    As with the SNP - "Free Stuff" benefits the better off:

    "Labour’s manifesto includes a £600 million promise to scrap prescription charges in England. Broadly speaking, the old, the young, the poor, the disabled and the chronically sick are already exempt from charges: as a result 89% of prescriptions last year were provided free. The main beneficiaries of Labour’s policy to make the remaining 11% free of charge are therefore likely to be working-age people of reasonable financial means, and who are not chronically sick."

    Away you halfwit , it costs more to administer the stupid prescription charges than giving it free. The 11% who pay are providing most of the cash for the 89% who get it free as well as paying their own many times over. You Tories hate decent policies.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    There's a wonderful aphorism by Warren Buffett that I'm a great believer of that goes something like this:

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with a reputation for poor performance, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    We humans like simple stories. Our brains are hardwired to believe them. Dominic Cummings is the superhero in this tale: with insight, and brilliance and intelligence.

    The reality is simpler. People, even most Remainers, want Brexit done. Corbyn is a dangerous joke. Johnson is like syphilis when the alternative is herpes. At least you know that you can get rid of him without too many consequences later.

    But Boris Johnson is a man who sways in the slightest breath of wind if he sees a second of advantage. (And by advantage, I mean one second longer in power.) Like Tony Blair, who I sadly think he resembles, he is a man with only a passing interest in the truth.

    And he is likely to be handed a large majority. Not because of the brilliance of Cummings, but because he's in the right place at the right time.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic. (He's certainly better than the alternatives.) But I fear that the next five years are not going to go well for the UK.
    Some other aphorisms seem potentially apposite here - the one about it being better to be lucky than skilful, for one. Possibly also the one about the golfer who seemed to get luckier the more he practiced.

    It's totally plausible that Johnson is just a chancer with a bunch of advantages from birth that are responsible for almost all his achievements. But, he's been doing this a while now, and whatever he's doing does seem to be working.
    https://xkcd.com/1827/
    I’ve read a lot of sports autobiographies and I’ll think that it would be interesting to read the story of someone who didn’t make it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    When you are competing against a plank you do not have to know much at all.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    There's a wonderful aphorism by Warren Buffett that I'm a great believer of that goes something like this:

    "When a management with a reputation for brilliance takes over a business with a reputation for poor performance, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

    We humans like simple stories. Our brains are hardwired to believe them. Dominic Cummings is the superhero in this tale: with insight, and brilliance and intelligence.

    The reality is simpler. People, even most Remainers, want Brexit done. Corbyn is a dangerous joke. Johnson is like syphilis when the alternative is herpes. At least you know that you can get rid of him without too many consequences later.

    But Boris Johnson is a man who sways in the slightest breath of wind if he sees a second of advantage. (And by advantage, I mean one second longer in power.) Like Tony Blair, who I sadly think he resembles, he is a man with only a passing interest in the truth.

    And he is likely to be handed a large majority. Not because of the brilliance of Cummings, but because he's in the right place at the right time.

    Maybe I'm too pessimistic. (He's certainly better than the alternatives.) But I fear that the next five years are not going to go well for the UK.
    I predict this will be Jose’s argument come March.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    That is my breakfast coming back up them, what a mush to see first thing in the morning. Maybe help if she got on with her day job for once instead of lining her pockets outside parliament.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Yes, I don't understand why the opposition approved the election before the 31st of October.

    It locked in the wrong mindset.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    malcolmg said:

    Endillion said:

    RobD said:

    Hypothetical polls - worth less than the paper they are written on.
    At some point, people are going to have to start entertaining the idea that Johnson and Cummings might actually know what they're doing.

    Hopefully after Dec 12.
    When you are competing against a plank you do not have to know much at all.
    Oi! Unfair to planks. They have their uses. Corbyn does not.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TimT said:

    Floater said:

    Its a Terrrrrible night for the Tories Labour

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197672865304391681?s=20

    Another piss poor result from team trot
    What is with these numbers not making sense. If the gains and losses from last election are correct, it was Con win last time, so no Con gain.
    It’s a multi seat area. Think there were 3 Con 1 Lab last time. It was the Lab cllr who left hence it’s a gain but the maths is weird.
  • When is the Tory manifesto launch?

    I sense a more nervous reaction to Labours than last time, though with a word of caution there were a lot of people who thought the 2017 document holed them before the waterline (myself included) and a dose of humble pie was required.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    After three years of Brexit we are now used to utterly fantastical politics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    After three years of Brexit we are now used to utterly fantastical politics.
    True, but every now and then, as with the tech investment figures yesterday, reality breaks through.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Will be interesting to see which taxes the Tories propose raising.
    I wonder whether they'll duck that issue by pretending there's a Brexit dividend, or just saying economic growth will pay for it all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Given the state of things, the view that taxation is sure to rise whoever is elected, the only question being the extent to which politicians are prepared now to set out how - is not unrealistic.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Alistair said:

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.

    TBF, given what a fool he is it’s surprising he earned anything at all as a solicitor.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    It’s a common failing. A few years ago an amateur historian tried to invent a new historical method based on Bayesian reasoning. He confused frequency and probability.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we can be certain he isn't given he would probably have some grasp of a Doctor's salary if he was.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we can be certain he isn't given he would probably have some grasp of a Doctor's salary if he was.
    The only doctoring he’s done is doctoring his CV?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
    and...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
  • When is the Tory manifesto launch?

    I sense a more nervous reaction to Labours than last time, though with a word of caution there were a lot of people who thought the 2017 document holed them before the waterline (myself included) and a dose of humble pie was required.

    It scares the living bejesus out of me. Not because it increases their chance of success, I don’t think it does, but what would actually happen if they did win.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
    The annoying thing about that would be however that despite all that he earns more than me.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298



    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.

    People know how much they earn personally though. You can hear the silent doubt of the audience when he says he earns more than 80k and that that doesn't put him in the top 5%.

    If Labour can get into an argument on the 80k figure, I think that will help them.

    That bloke is an excellent example of rich people hanging out with rich people and therefore thinking he's normal.
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Any half arsed self employed plumber or builder is going to be around that mark. But their accountant wouldn’t be so daft to have them on paye.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
    oooh you bitch!
  • Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
    What an arrogant statement
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rkrkrk said:



    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.

    People know how much they earn personally though. You can hear the silent doubt of the audience when he says he earns more than 80k and that that doesn't put him in the top 5%.

    If Labour can get into an argument on the 80k figure, I think that will help them.

    That bloke is an excellent example of rich people hanging out with rich people and therefore thinking he's normal.
    Not so silent doubt, the audience heckle him and tell him he is in the top 5%

    Fair play I had also missed Bunce muttering that she thought the man was wrong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
    The tabloids will doubtless getto the bottom of it in a day or two
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Alistair said:

    rkrkrk said:



    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.

    People know how much they earn personally though. You can hear the silent doubt of the audience when he says he earns more than 80k and that that doesn't put him in the top 5%.

    If Labour can get into an argument on the 80k figure, I think that will help them.

    That bloke is an excellent example of rich people hanging out with rich people and therefore thinking he's normal.
    Not so silent doubt, the audience heckle him and tell him he is in the top 5%

    Fair play I had also missed Bunce muttering that she thought the man was wrong.
    If that’s a typo, it’s an awesome one.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Anyone know why Brexit Party are standing in Norfolk North? They arent going to peel off any LD votes. Taking labour votes is irrelevant. Just makes it more difficult for Con to take a very winnable leave-voting seat with Norman Lamb standing down.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    The man on £80k was indicator our world where strongly held opinions carry more weight than facts. You can’t argue with them, they will never admit they are wrong.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Why does nobody ever point out that taking money out of large companies, raising taxes on investments/ Dividends, basically attacking “greedy“ shareholders has a direct on every single person with a direct interest in personal pension funds, and an indirect interest in public sector fund backed pensions?
  • rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Total corporation tax take last year was £57 billion (it was £40 billion in 2014). Not sure how you can suck a further £28 billion out of corporation tax, it’s essentially a doubling of the tax take.

    You can’t double a tax take without substantial behavioural change.
  • IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
    The tabloids will doubtless getto the bottom of it in a day or two
    We need to get FactCheckUK on the case. Does anyone know their number?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Anyone know why Brexit Party are standing in Norfolk North? They arent going to peel off any LD votes. Taking labour votes is irrelevant. Just makes it more difficult for Con to take a very winnable leave-voting seat with Norman Lamb standing down.

    Because the decision not to stand in Tory seats got Farage so much internal flak that they daren't take a step further to help the Tories
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    It seems to me that the Labour manifesto is largely slogans masquerading as policy. Virtually every single complaint or criticism made of any area of govt influenced activity finds a place somewhere, as if every criticism is driven by evil malicious forces, rather than mainly being a genuine reflection that Govt is complicated, requires choices, trade offs, rationalisation, prioritisation with no easy solutions etc etc. And all can be solved with more money and a few centrally mandated Govt directives.
  • rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Isn't there some double counting in there?
    If there's no tax relief on R&D, then profits will be lower, so less corporation tax.
    Ditto with financial transactions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Jonathan said:

    The man on £80k was indicator our world where strongly held opinions carry more weight than facts. You can’t argue with them, they will never admit they are wrong.

    Wow. That is an even more awesome admission.

    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
    The tabloids will doubtless getto the bottom of it in a day or two
    We need to get FactCheckUK on the case. Does anyone know their number?
    Not Labour, to judge by recent events. :smiley:

    Have a good morning.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
    The annoying thing about that would be however that despite all that he earns more than me.
    Secondary school teachers are underpaid compared to GPs I think.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Alistair said:

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    There is a saying, ‘takes one to know one.’

    This is not true of morons, who are simply too thick to recognise each other.
    You're not allowed to call the audience moronic as a politician even if it's true.

    Anyway if that chap is a Doctor I'm glad he's not mine. I doubt he has any idea of how Bayes works for instance with that piss poor grasp of statistics
    I think we live in a great country. A place where a innumerate and argumentative man who cannot even choose the correct sized clothes, living in a provincial town can earn £80 000 per year.
    The annoying thing about that would be however that despite all that he earns more than me.
    Pay and earnings have little or nothing to do with merit, need or deserving. Often not a lot to do with qualifications or intelligence either. They are set by society and what people are willing to pay for those services.

    I earn more than that fellow, but would happily do my work for less. It is important to enjoy your working life, and to do a job of benefit to others. Man cannot live by bread alone.

    Or as my mother once put it in her Lancashire way: "Virtue is it's own reward, which is just as well as it rarely gets rewarded otherwise"

  • rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Isn't there some double counting in there?
    If there's no tax relief on R&D, then profits will be lower, so less corporation tax.
    Ditto with financial transactions.
    With all those taxes on corporations why would anyone invest in this country?

    Which would somewhat have an impact on employment rates, PAYE, NICs etc you would think. Instead they're magicking up some money from "fiscal multiplier" - have they never heard of Deadweight Loss?
  • rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Total corporation tax take last year was £57 billion (it was £40 billion in 2014). Not sure how you can suck a further £28 billion out of corporation tax, it’s essentially a doubling of the tax take.

    You can’t double a tax take without substantial behavioural change.
    Oops. A Burgon level of maths there. I mean half again, not doubling...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2019

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    Bit misleading to compare what a £40k earner gets before tax with what an 80k earner gets after tax...

    If you’re on 40k the you will get around 30k after tax I think...?

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    alex_ said:

    Why does nobody ever point out that taking money out of large companies, raising taxes on investments/ Dividends, basically attacking “greedy“ shareholders has a direct on every single person with a direct interest in personal pension funds, and an indirect interest in public sector fund backed pensions?

    The case for pension funds is essentially the same as for individuals - if you organise the economy on the basis of low public investment, low pay and high dependence on an underskilled workforce, you will bump along with 1% growth indefinitely; if Britain is more dynamically managed you may have a slightly lower share of the cake but it'll be a bigger cake.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited November 2019
    Good morning campers.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    Yes mate, but your base living expenses don't increase as your wage increases mate so your disposable income is massively higher compared to someone on 40 grand.

    As we've established 80 k puts you in the top 5%. That's top whack mate no matter how you cut it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    The immediate danger of labour to people on normal wages isn't the tax policy, it's the interest rate rises that will be needed to prop up sterling with such profligate spending on the horizon, or imported inflation via weaker sterling
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019

    alex_ said:

    Why does nobody ever point out that taking money out of large companies, raising taxes on investments/ Dividends, basically attacking “greedy“ shareholders has a direct on every single person with a direct interest in personal pension funds, and an indirect interest in public sector fund backed pensions?

    The case for pension funds is essentially the same as for individuals - if you organise the economy on the basis of low public investment, low pay and high dependence on an underskilled workforce, you will bump along with 1% growth indefinitely; if Britain is more dynamically managed you may have a slightly lower share of the cake but it'll be a bigger cake.
    And you think thwacking up taxes on R&D of all things, taxes on financial transactions, taxes on corporations, taxes on investments etc etc etc is going to lead to a more dynamically managed economy?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    Lots on here live in a dream world that the peasants get 80K a year as a norm.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    What tends to erode the difference for a significant proportion of households on those budgets is brands. Get a 90% the same car made in the same factory but with a different badge and pay an extra £5-20k. Get an Armani T-shirt instead of a Next T-shirt and pay 200% premium.

    Easy to trade up but little benefit gained, and then people find it hard to trade down when finances require it. As we are not taught how to manage our finances, many do not significantly notice the benefit of "just" £24k after tax as it is often frittered away.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    After three years of Brexit we are now used to utterly fantastical politics.
    So all Doctors are getting whacked on tax...that will attract more here wont it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2019

    alex_ said:

    Why does nobody ever point out that taking money out of large companies, raising taxes on investments/ Dividends, basically attacking “greedy“ shareholders has a direct on every single person with a direct interest in personal pension funds, and an indirect interest in public sector fund backed pensions?

    The case for pension funds is essentially the same as for individuals - if you organise the economy on the basis of low public investment, low pay and high dependence on an underskilled workforce, you will bump along with 1% growth indefinitely; if Britain is more dynamically managed you may have a slightly lower share of the cake but it'll be a bigger cake.
    I’m not sure what point you are making? Are you arguing that Labour’s plans will actually increase the value of pension funds (individual or collective)?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    alex_ said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    Bit misleading to compare what a £40k earner gets before tax with what an 80k earner gets after tax...

    If you’re on 40k the you will get around 30k after tax I think...?

    What!! they both get the same up to £40K, a s stated he only showed the difference after £40K and overestimated as he missed out NI on the extra £40K
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Firstly its Fiona Bruce, secondly, he is probably a plumber or an electrician, an artisan, and the message is going to get across that irrespective of whether this man and others like him are in the top 5% ., Labour are going to screw them
    He says he is on PAYE as an employee.
    The tabloids will doubtless getto the bottom of it in a day or two
    We need to get FactCheckUK on the case. Does anyone know their number?
    Lookup CCHQ
  • The question that needs to be asked is does labour's manifesto appeal to more than 30% of the populace and will it attract conservatives which they need to increase their percentages, or does it scare them and others witless and there is a further move towards the conservatives. Furthermore will those who were toying with the lib dems now feel it is too much of a risk to do anthing but to vote conservative to keep Corbyn out

    The polls over this weekend and throughout next week should give an indication
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689
    I agree that 80k is relatively well paid - but I am surprised it in in top 5% - where can I find some statistics on the topic???
  • alex_ said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    Bit misleading to compare what a £40k earner gets before tax with what an 80k earner gets after tax...

    If you’re on 40k the you will get around 30k after tax I think...?

    Also on 80k the tax on the extra £40k is almost optional, you can live on the normal £40k and get tax relief on the additional £40k through pensions, VCTs, EIS or SEIS.
  • JohnLoony said:

    Er, I think you'll find that Peter Robinson was never married to Mary Robinson (!)

    Yes, i totally forgot her name, lol
  • IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Looking at the detail, the vast majority is supposed to come from corporations - not high earners.

    1. Increase tax on 80k+ = 5.4bn.
    2. Corporation tax cuts reverse = 23.7bn.
    3. Unitary tax of multinationals = 6.3bn.
    4. Taxing investment income as other income = 14bn.
    5. Financial transactions tax = 8.8bn
    6. Tax avoidance and evasion = 6.2bn
    7. Corporate tax reliefs review = 4.3bn
    8. R&D funding reform = 4.0bn
    9. Reverse cuts to inheritance tax and Bank Levy, impose VAT on private school fees, scrap Married Persons Allowance, introduce a second homes tax = 5.2bn
    10. Additional tax revenue from fiscal multiplier = 5bn

    Most of those changes look sensible to me. Even Boris has implicitly accepted the principle behind increasing corporation tax.

    Given the state of things, the view that taxation is sure to rise whoever is elected, the only question being the extent to which politicians are prepared now to set out how - is not unrealistic.
    I agree with that. Population ageing, the challenges of climate change and making up for decades of under investment in infrastructure and human capital are all going to cost money. And we are all going to have to pay for it. What irritates me about Labour's plan is the pretence that it doesn't require the average person to also pay more tax. As a fully signed up member of the 1% I am firmly of the opinion that the rich need to pay their share, and they have the broadest shoulders, but there is a limit beyond which some of them (not me) will fuck off.
    The whole attitude to tax in this country is wrong, from the wealthy with their tax planning all the way down to the builder with his cash in hand jobs. It's a privilege to pay tax - it's an investment in our country's future, a contribution to our essential services and a helping hand to those less fortunate. People need to stop being dicks about it.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    alex_ said:

    Why does nobody ever point out that taking money out of large companies, raising taxes on investments/ Dividends, basically attacking “greedy“ shareholders has a direct on every single person with a direct interest in personal pension funds, and an indirect interest in public sector fund backed pensions?

    The case for pension funds is essentially the same as for individuals - if you organise the economy on the basis of low public investment, low pay and high dependence on an underskilled workforce, you will bump along with 1% growth indefinitely; if Britain is more dynamically managed you may have a slightly lower share of the cake but it'll be a bigger cake.
    why would employers bother training their workforce when they can just buy trained cheap labour from abroad ? Its one of the main drivers of our low productivity.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    What tends to erode the difference for a significant proportion of households on those budgets is brands. Get a 90% the same car made in the same factory but with a different badge and pay an extra £5-20k. Get an Armani T-shirt instead of a Next T-shirt and pay 200% premium.

    Easy to trade up but little benefit gained, and then people find it hard to trade down when finances require it. As we are not taught how to manage our finances, many do not significantly notice the benefit of "just" £24k after tax as it is often frittered away.
    Our household income will be just under £100k, but I shop at Aldi, Morrisons and Asda, will scavenge around for a yellow whoops sticker and religiously screw down my utility and insurance companies.
    However, if I choose to fritter away my ‘surplus income’ I’m still doing a better job than handing it to the government to fritter on my behalf.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2019
    malcolmg said:

    alex_ said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    Eighty grand is fucking huge mate.
    It is a nice income, but you might be surprised how tax erodes the difference significantly.

    A long serving teacher without any special enhancements will be on £40k. Double that to £80k only brings in an extra £24k after tax.
    Bit misleading to compare what a £40k earner gets before tax with what an 80k earner gets after tax...

    If you’re on 40k the you will get around 30k after tax I think...?

    What!! they both get the same up to £40K, a s stated he only showed the difference after £40K and overestimated as he missed out NI on the extra £40K
    Higher rate taxpayers only pay 2% NI above the upper threshold. My point was that a 24k increase doesn’t sound so much when compared with 40k. It sounds a lot more when compared with 30k.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1197661268448022528?s=19

    Why the fuck was Fiona Bunce not stepping in to point out the member of the public was a total fucking Moron?

    That was absolutely excruciating to watch.

    Why couldn't Burgon step in the o point out he was a moron.

    Blimey, Burgon is correct here.
    Burgon flubed hard here. He should have have the stats to hand to point out the median wage is 22 grand and the mean around 30 grand.

    But I have a lot of sympathy in the face of such idiocy. The women next to the questioner goig "absolute rubbish" when Burgon said he only earned 40 grand as a solicitor was the shit cherry on top of the poo cake.
    What you are missing is... it doesn't matter a damn how thick a voter is, if people like that guy think Labour are going to screw them, others in a similar position are going to think exactly the same. 80k is good money, but its not huge... and people like him are paying a feck of a lot of tax anyway.

    Its the same principle of people hating inheritance tax, even if they are never going to pay any on pay any, they instinctively hate the tax.
    And Labour's manifesto promises to reverse the Osborne inheritance tax cut which was hugely popular and increase income tax for those earning over £80 000, anyone owning shares or dividends will also be hit by making the tax rate on them equivalent to income tax as will anyone who works for a company or buys from a company through the corporation tax hike leading to wage cuts, job cuts and price rises.

    As the IFS have also pointed out that will have to just be for starters
  • % of Britons who think you are rich if you earn [X] a year...

    £21,100 - 7%
    £24,800 - 10%
    £27,600 - 15%
    £31,100 - 23%
    £39,800 - 35%
    £45,001 - 48%
    £60,500 - 68%
    £70,000 - 74%
    £150,001 - 86%

    https://t.co/yDpCqZUzKE https://t.co/x0GMdQ1iDt
This discussion has been closed.