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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Wor

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!

A1 guest slot by The Green Machine It’s been all three years (since January 2017) that the Northern Ireland government has been in their work place, why?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    The final sentence is a bit of a reach...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/axios/status/1197635149632098310?s=19

    Their aim is to use it to push the Biden conspiracy theories.
  • I was wrong, England are shitting and pissing the bed right now.
  • How the hell did he get into Cambridge....there has to be another Richard Burgon somewhere thinking I was the one they meant to take.
  • WE DEMAND BETTER, WE DESERVE BETTER! WE’LL GET BETTER!

    And you want someone else to pay for it.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Burgon might possibly have not been the best option to send out there straight after this manifesto release.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019

    I was wrong, England are shitting and pissing the bed right now.

    Jofra's batting is shit. They hyped him up as really being able to handle the willow and he can't at this level.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    It seems like SF and DUP might lose a seat or two as this suggests, but will much change? What incentive is there for the groups to start working together again?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Hopefully the non batshit (SDLP, Alliance, UUP) parties in Northern Ireland can pick up some seats this election.
  • Andrew said:

    Burgon might possibly have not been the best option to send out there straight after this manifesto release. EVER

    Fixed for you.
  • How the hell did he get into Cambridge....there has to be another Richard Burgon somewhere thinking I was the one they meant to take.
    This is a question we really need the answer to. For anyone in this country who has 'impostor syndrome', he is the perfect antidote.

    As my old Dad used to say - I wouldn't give him a job sweeping up.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    Just think in just over 3 weeks old Dicky could be a minister of the Crown...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg
  • Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/axios/status/1197635149632098310?s=19

    Their aim is to use it to push the Biden conspiracy theories.

    Might be focussing on the wrong Dem after Iowa and NH have done.
  • I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Question Time truly is dire.
  • I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    I look forward to the 'Burgon Bounce' as he wins back hearts and minds here in Scotland.

    Oh.
  • Anyone know what time we are expecting the local by-election results tonight?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    So, manifesto bounce? :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited November 2019
    Very important news for Brexit, as King Arthur weighs in, from his candidacy in Salisbury:

    King Arthur Pendragon: Our political classes have been paralysed, whilst the rest of the world has passed by us. I might not know what works, but I know what does not.

    Don’t ram Boris’ deal through with little or no scrutiny just to get it over the line as the Tories would. Don’t pretend the referendum didn’t happen as the Lib Dems would. Don’t subject us to Groundhog Day and start all over again as Labour would.

    And don’t leave without a deal as the Brexit Party would!

    I voted remain, but like most people who accept the will of the people, I just want to get it over with,and would back any deal that works for us and our European neighbours


    https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/18049039.general-election-2019-meet-candidates-salisbury/
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    So, manifesto bounce? :)
    Save that smiley for the weekend polls!
  • Anyone know what time we are expecting the local by-election results tonight?

    Torry tonight, Moray tomorrow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    Anyone know what time we are expecting the local by-election results tonight?

    Typically we'd have had at least one by now, cannot be long.
  • I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    I look forward to the 'Burgon Bounce' as he wins back hearts and minds here in Scotland.

    Oh.
    Burgon has been a breath of fresh air to Scots in the past.

    https://order-order.com/2015/05/27/big-feartie-which-snp-mp-gassed-the-chamber/
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    It doesn't look much like Northern Ireland will "get better" in the foreseeable future. And presumably the Secretary of State can only strip the assembly members of their fat salaries by the simple expedient of sacking them and assuming direct rule? Why on Earth he would want to inflict that upon himself and the Government is quite beyond me.

    One assumes that the current fudge - civil servants running the show, and MPs by-and-large legislating for Northern Ireland only when they have to (i.e. on matters of supply) - is likely to carry on for years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Well that would be the final nail in Labour's coffin if Corbyn loses, not the party of government and likely not the main opposition either
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/axios/status/1197635149632098310?s=19

    Their aim is to use it to push the Biden conspiracy theories.

    They don’t want democrats to drag it out. But why wouldn't Dems hold out for more big beasts to come to the circus tent. Democrats also want trump to win in the senate as that’s electoral gold in senate elections.

    Why did trump risk so much on dirt on Biden? The answer is either feared Biden or is just stupid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.

    Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Hopefully the non batshit (SDLP, Alliance, UUP) parties in Northern Ireland can pick up some seats this election.

    Certainly Belfast South could be an SDLP or Alliance gain as could North Belfast and North Down a UUP or Alliance gain, Foyle could go SDLP too
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    What’s a Brighton mainline for southwest England?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited November 2019
    And its even more, since one of them is '10 policies to fix the BBC'. 10 policies for the price of 1.

    But actually its a smart way of getting the message out.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
    It may be sooner than that. It may be in 22 days, if one is to take the Canadian model as a prediction.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.

    Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
    Labour could lose most of the large rural seats they hold.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
  • MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Don't worry the Government will hold all the cards as all those companies need us more than we need them.

    We're headed for sunlit uplands.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Laura Pidcock 'was nearly crying' at the manifesto launch apparently she was so overwhelmed
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Pulpstar said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
    Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.

    There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.

    But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    Any Questions is probably the most left wing audience ?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I think Hartlepool might not be Labour come 3 weeks time

    https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1197560606494281729?s=21
  • GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.

    Who knows?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Cookie said:

    Pulpstar said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
    It may be sooner than that. It may be in 22 days, if one is to take the Canadian model as a prediction.
    I don't dare get my hopes up by looking at a model with such err wonders :D
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837

    I was wrong, England are shitting and pissing the bed right now.

    Jofra's batting is shit. They hyped him up as really being able to handle the willow and he can't at this level.
    Nevertheless - I've just remembered that I have access to this via an app on my mother-in-law's ipad which for complicated reasons lives at our house and have just popped it on. Doesn't it look idyllic? I'm reminded of the scene in the Thick of It where Julius puts TMS on and for a moment the world is a less horrible place, before some mad Scotsman comes and shouts at him.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    camel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
    Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.

    There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.

    But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.

    Those last two seats both go blue in the Canadian model. I say this merely to report someone else's model rather than to comment on its usefulness.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Brom said:

    I think Hartlepool might not be Labour come 3 weeks time

    https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1197560606494281729?s=21

    I honestly don't like to suggest people are just being thick, I think it unkind and despite many gaffes probably not usually true, but his insistence about a second referendum came across as very thick.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Laura Pidcock 'was nearly crying' at the manifesto launch apparently she was so overwhelmed

    I heard she was muttering "we are sooo fucked"
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
  • nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Given the reaction to Bozo in Bolton not sure I’d be getting out the bunting if I was the Tories for their northern take over .

    And the bloke who went crazy over the tax rises didn’t seem to get much support when the crowd realized he was on over 80,000 a year .

    That’s a hell of a lot of money to most people.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    Laura Pidcock 'was nearly crying' at the manifesto launch apparently she was so overwhelmed

    I heard she was muttering "we are sooo fucked"
    If Consett goes blue a) she's fooked indeed and b) the political world has literally been turned on its head.

    It also reinforces Pulpstar's excellent point earlier about how old industrial areas are eventually become commuter towns. After about 40 years.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Xtrain said:

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
    We all laughed when Labour chose Corbyn, we are not laughing now
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    She looks demented , but given she writes for the DT that’s probably par for the course.
  • nico67 said:

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    She looks demented , but given she writes for the DT that’s probably par for the course.
    That's pretty much priced in with a Torygraph columnist, it is true.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.

    Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
    Labour could lose most of the large rural seats they hold.
    There are very few Labour seats left which could plausibly be described as rural, and not that many semi-rural ones either. Before very much longer, you'll be able to list constituencies in order of population density and there'll be a certain point beyond which they can be guaranteed to be non-viable for Labour, in just the same way as listing constituencies by percentage of non-white voters allows one to predict that those beyond a certain critical point are non-viable for the Tories.

    In a plausible worst case scenario for Labour, Workington, Durham NW, Bishop Auckland, High Peak, Canterbury, Stroud, Bassetlaw, East Lothian and every Labour seat in North Wales could all go in one night.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    nico67 said:

    Given the reaction to Bozo in Bolton not sure I’d be getting out the bunting if I was the Tories for their northern take over .

    And the bloke who went crazy over the tax rises didn’t seem to get much support when the crowd realized he was on over 80,000 a year .

    That’s a hell of a lot of money to most people.

    And for Labours figures to work that 80k salary would have to find another 40k in taxes according to some.

    In other words the sums are stupid and a lot more people will have to pay a lot more tax.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2019
    The quality of journalism in this country is horrific.

    Does ANY mainstream press / TV political journalist realise:

    1) The abolition of the marriage tax allowance means that any married person earning over £12,500 will pay extra income tax (if their spouse is not using their full personal allowance).

    2) The changes to Dividend taxation mean that anyone with a small business making profits who then pays themselves a dividend will be paying more income tax (if their total income is over £12,500).

    I haven't seen the above mentioned on any TV news programme. Is it in any of the morning's papers?

    Yet every journalist continues to churn out "only those earning over £80k will pay more tax".

    Journalists know so little about the subjects they are attempting to report on that unless someone else literally spoon feeds them what is going on they simply haven't got the faintest idea.

    Conservative Central Office needs to have the above points on every journalist's desk right now.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    The way that her eyes move indicates to me that she may have very limited sight. Blunkets eyes come to mind.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Xtrain said:

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
    Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,

    Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233

    How the hell did he get into Cambridge....there has to be another Richard Burgon somewhere thinking I was the one they meant to take.
    To be fair, he was at St John's, not a proper college.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    Right, anecdata:
    #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.

    #2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.

    Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    A pretty pisspoor panel, but she does look a little over stimulated.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    There’s nothing there that’s Marxist. Very little clearly socialist even. Lots of it clearly loopy, like 4 new bank holidays on an economy already with productivity issues.

    It’s a free country, Tories can attack this anyway they want. But if you genuinely believe this is Marxist or even socialist all your opinions are diminished in my eyes. This is a manifesto written by trade union barons, hence the policies like renewing trident has come from radicals caving in to their paymasters.

    Where’s the democracy in the Labour Party when what conference votes for is ignored or watered down by craven leadership giving in to union paymasters? The Labour Party membership are just leaflet delivering canon fodder.

    What leaps out from this list is a King Corbyn Runnymeded over by Union Barons. It’s not a list of Marxism or radical socialism at all. If there were any tanks on the lawn they didn’t fire a shot. The beer and sandwiches gulped down with greedy wild eyed relish last weekend.

    Don’t confuse british trade unionism with socialism, Marxism, anarchism or anything faintly interesting and radical, merely inflating the public sector, state funded infrastructure projects, standing at football matches, and having lots of bank holidays to have a rally around a hotdog van somewhere.

    In the reality away from Pb.com 21st Nov 2019 was a bleak day for Marxism and socialism.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    camel said:

    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    Laura Pidcock 'was nearly crying' at the manifesto launch apparently she was so overwhelmed

    I heard she was muttering "we are sooo fucked"
    If Consett goes blue a) she's fooked indeed and b) the political world has literally been turned on its head.

    It also reinforces Pulpstar's excellent point earlier about how old industrial areas are eventually become commuter towns. After about 40 years.
    Figuratively. Not literally. ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,

    Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
    Tax rats? Owls? What is it with Labour?
  • In 2017, Labour manifesto turned heads. Due to May's utter uselessness they stayed turned.

    2019, it looks like the overall view is the Labour manifesto is fantasy bullshit, which they have zero competence to deliver.

    Surely Boris will come up with something popular and plausible on Sunday.
  • Solved:

    Sherelle Jacobs is the journo who 'went viral' following a Sky News interview earlier this year (which seems like about a decade ago).

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/30/me-and-the-woman-in-the-pink-coat
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019
    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Labour will also tax capital gains and dividends at income tax rates, extend stamp duty reserve duty, reverse the Osborne Inheritance tax cut and raise marriage couples tax allowance and introduce a second homes tax

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Funding-Real-Change-2019.pdf
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.

    Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
    Labour could lose most of the large rural seats they hold.
    There are very few Labour seats left which could plausibly be described as rural, and not that many semi-rural ones either. Before very much longer, you'll be able to list constituencies in order of population density and there'll be a certain point beyond which they can be guaranteed to be non-viable for Labour, in just the same way as listing constituencies by percentage of non-white voters allows one to predict that those beyond a certain critical point are non-viable for the Tories.

    In a plausible worst case scenario for Labour, Workington, Durham NW, Bishop Auckland, High Peak, Canterbury, Stroud, Bassetlaw, East Lothian and every Labour seat in North Wales could all go in one night.
    I think Lab in North Wales will be protected by the Mersey halo, it is in the south that they will lose the seats.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    camel said:

    Xtrain said:

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
    Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
    Is there another Cambridge? In Cloud Cuckoo Land?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Cookie said:

    camel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    camel said:

    Re. The North - for CorrectHorseBattery

    The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.

    Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.

    http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg

    In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
    Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.

    There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.

    But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.

    Those last two seats both go blue in the Canadian model. I say this merely to report someone else's model rather than to comment on its usefulness.
    Hemsworth:

    Labour percentages since 1945:

    81.4
    82.3
    83.2
    82.1
    83.0
    85.3
    80.7
    82.8
    76.5
    69.6
    59.3
    67.0
    66.3
    70.8
    71.9
    70.6
    65.4
    58.8
    46.8
    51.3
    56.0

    History would seem be against the Canadians.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.

    Who knows?
    Of course Labour's policies are popular. Who wouldn't want free everything? With the media repeating endlessly that 95% of people won't pay anything.

    The Conservatives have a massive job on their hands getting it through to people that the vast majority will be paying more - both in higher taxes and also (and perhaps more importantly) in higher interest rates.

    How many 1st time buyers are looking forward to going into negative equity? Yet most people appear blissfully unaware of what is coming if Lab wins.
  • camel said:

    Xtrain said:

    I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1

    Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
    Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
    Is there another Cambridge? In Cloud Cuckoo Land?
    Are we sure he wasn't at Anglia Ruskin? I don't wish to besmirch that fine institution, but he is like living proof that A Levels are getting easier.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    BigRich said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,

    Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
    £80,000 - £60,000,000,000, for clarity
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!

    Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Cookie said:

    Right, anecdata:
    #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.

    #2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.

    Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.

    Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.

    I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    He truly is a king prat amongst a cohort of prats
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Banterman said:

    In 2017, Labour manifesto turned heads. Due to May's utter uselessness they stayed turned.

    2019, it looks like the overall view is the Labour manifesto is fantasy bullshit, which they have zero competence to deliver.

    Surely Boris will come up with something popular and plausible on Sunday.

    Someone might do it for him more like.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Banterman said:

    In 2017, Labour manifesto turned heads. Due to May's utter uselessness they stayed turned.

    2019, it looks like the overall view is the Labour manifesto is fantasy bullshit, which they have zero competence to deliver.

    Surely Boris will come up with something popular and plausible on Sunday.

    If Boris cuts taxes with borrowing and funds giveaways with brexit bonus he will come out less plausible.

    And claims Boris campaigns better than May is laughable so far.
  • Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Right, anecdata:
    #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.

    #2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.

    Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.

    Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.

    I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
    You've been telling us that for 40 months.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    egg said:

    Banterman said:

    In 2017, Labour manifesto turned heads. Due to May's utter uselessness they stayed turned.

    2019, it looks like the overall view is the Labour manifesto is fantasy bullshit, which they have zero competence to deliver.

    Surely Boris will come up with something popular and plausible on Sunday.

    If Boris cuts taxes with borrowing and funds giveaways with brexit bonus he will come out less plausible.

    And claims Boris campaigns better than May is laughable so far.
    Egg, I think you might be misremembering just quite how useless May was at campaigning.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Solved:

    Sherelle Jacobs is the journo who 'went viral' following a Sky News interview earlier this year (which seems like about a decade ago).

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/30/me-and-the-woman-in-the-pink-coat

    There's a bloke on ITV news like this. Maybe they're siblings from Midwich.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    On housing Labour will end right to buy council homes, give councils the power to buy back homes from private landlords, end the conversion of office blocks to homes as permitted development, end sale of leasehold properties, homes immediately and flats at the end of their first term. Leaseholders will be given the right to buy their freehold and rent controls and open-ended tenancies will be introduced for renters

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf
  • MikeL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?

    Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.

    Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
    I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.

    Who knows?
    Of course Labour's policies are popular. Who wouldn't want free everything? With the media repeating endlessly that 95% of people won't pay anything.

    The Conservatives have a massive job on their hands getting it through to people that the vast majority will be paying more - both in higher taxes and also (and perhaps more importantly) in higher interest rates.

    How many 1st time buyers are looking forward to going into negative equity? Yet most people appear blissfully unaware of what is coming if Lab wins.
    My point was that, as someone not watching, I am getting messages saying that the audience are all for the Labour policies, and that they are going down like cold sick.

    Who knows how they are in fact going down amongst the wider public when people can’t even agree on what a specific audience think.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    Right, anecdata:
    #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.

    #2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.

    Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.

    Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.

    I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
    Thank you for referring to my school friends - and therefore by implication me - as 'young'. :-)
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!

    Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...

    Given the inattention to detail of our politicians its inevitable that many of the manifesto plans will have the opposite effect that they are supposed to.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!

    Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...

    Equally don't get the holiday home double council tax thing. If you run a furnished holiday let, it's a small business with 100% business rates relief. 2 x 0 = 0 even in Labour land.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    The maths of the tax rises:

    £83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.

    From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.

    £60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.

    This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.

    Labour will also tax capital gains and dividends at income tax rates, extend stamp duty reserve duty, reverse the Osborne Inheritance tax cut and raise marriage couples tax allowance and introduce a second homes tax

    https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Funding-Real-Change-2019.pdf
    They will also raid everyone's pension by giving away 10% of the share capital of every company employing more than 250 people.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:

    nunu2 said:

    The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn

    On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.

    Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
    A pretty pisspoor panel, but she does look a little over stimulated.
    There's something anachronistic about Johnson's new Tory Party which hasn't been obvious since the early days of Thatcher. A lot depends on the zeitgeist. For all that the polls are saying this is by no means a popular government
This discussion has been closed.