politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ALMOST THREE YEARS! We Have Simply Had Enough! Get Back To Work!
A1 guest slot by The Green Machine It’s been all three years (since January 2017) that the Northern Ireland government has been in their work place, why?
It seems like SF and DUP might lose a seat or two as this suggests, but will much change? What incentive is there for the groups to start working together again?
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
Very important news for Brexit, as King Arthur weighs in, from his candidacy in Salisbury:
King Arthur Pendragon: Our political classes have been paralysed, whilst the rest of the world has passed by us. I might not know what works, but I know what does not.
Don’t ram Boris’ deal through with little or no scrutiny just to get it over the line as the Tories would. Don’t pretend the referendum didn’t happen as the Lib Dems would. Don’t subject us to Groundhog Day and start all over again as Labour would.
And don’t leave without a deal as the Brexit Party would!
I voted remain, but like most people who accept the will of the people, I just want to get it over with,and would back any deal that works for us and our European neighbours
It doesn't look much like Northern Ireland will "get better" in the foreseeable future. And presumably the Secretary of State can only strip the assembly members of their fat salaries by the simple expedient of sacking them and assuming direct rule? Why on Earth he would want to inflict that upon himself and the Government is quite beyond me.
One assumes that the current fudge - civil servants running the show, and MPs by-and-large legislating for Northern Ireland only when they have to (i.e. on matters of supply) - is likely to carry on for years.
Their aim is to use it to push the Biden conspiracy theories.
They don’t want democrats to drag it out. But why wouldn't Dems hold out for more big beasts to come to the circus tent. Democrats also want trump to win in the senate as that’s electoral gold in senate elections.
Why did trump risk so much on dirt on Biden? The answer is either feared Biden or is just stupid.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
It may be sooner than that. It may be in 22 days, if one is to take the Canadian model as a prediction.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
Don't worry the Government will hold all the cards as all those companies need us more than we need them.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.
There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.
But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
It may be sooner than that. It may be in 22 days, if one is to take the Canadian model as a prediction.
I don't dare get my hopes up by looking at a model with such err wonders
I was wrong, England are shitting and pissing the bed right now.
Jofra's batting is shit. They hyped him up as really being able to handle the willow and he can't at this level.
Nevertheless - I've just remembered that I have access to this via an app on my mother-in-law's ipad which for complicated reasons lives at our house and have just popped it on. Doesn't it look idyllic? I'm reminded of the scene in the Thick of It where Julius puts TMS on and for a moment the world is a less horrible place, before some mad Scotsman comes and shouts at him.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.
There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.
But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.
Those last two seats both go blue in the Canadian model. I say this merely to report someone else's model rather than to comment on its usefulness.
I honestly don't like to suggest people are just being thick, I think it unkind and despite many gaffes probably not usually true, but his insistence about a second referendum came across as very thick.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
Labour could lose most of the large rural seats they hold.
There are very few Labour seats left which could plausibly be described as rural, and not that many semi-rural ones either. Before very much longer, you'll be able to list constituencies in order of population density and there'll be a certain point beyond which they can be guaranteed to be non-viable for Labour, in just the same way as listing constituencies by percentage of non-white voters allows one to predict that those beyond a certain critical point are non-viable for the Tories.
In a plausible worst case scenario for Labour, Workington, Durham NW, Bishop Auckland, High Peak, Canterbury, Stroud, Bassetlaw, East Lothian and every Labour seat in North Wales could all go in one night.
The quality of journalism in this country is horrific.
Does ANY mainstream press / TV political journalist realise:
1) The abolition of the marriage tax allowance means that any married person earning over £12,500 will pay extra income tax (if their spouse is not using their full personal allowance).
2) The changes to Dividend taxation mean that anyone with a small business making profits who then pays themselves a dividend will be paying more income tax (if their total income is over £12,500).
I haven't seen the above mentioned on any TV news programme. Is it in any of the morning's papers?
Yet every journalist continues to churn out "only those earning over £80k will pay more tax".
Journalists know so little about the subjects they are attempting to report on that unless someone else literally spoon feeds them what is going on they simply haven't got the faintest idea.
Conservative Central Office needs to have the above points on every journalist's desk right now.
I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1
Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,
Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
Right, anecdata: #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.
#2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.
Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
There’s nothing there that’s Marxist. Very little clearly socialist even. Lots of it clearly loopy, like 4 new bank holidays on an economy already with productivity issues.
It’s a free country, Tories can attack this anyway they want. But if you genuinely believe this is Marxist or even socialist all your opinions are diminished in my eyes. This is a manifesto written by trade union barons, hence the policies like renewing trident has come from radicals caving in to their paymasters.
Where’s the democracy in the Labour Party when what conference votes for is ignored or watered down by craven leadership giving in to union paymasters? The Labour Party membership are just leaflet delivering canon fodder.
What leaps out from this list is a King Corbyn Runnymeded over by Union Barons. It’s not a list of Marxism or radical socialism at all. If there were any tanks on the lawn they didn’t fire a shot. The beer and sandwiches gulped down with greedy wild eyed relish last weekend.
Don’t confuse british trade unionism with socialism, Marxism, anarchism or anything faintly interesting and radical, merely inflating the public sector, state funded infrastructure projects, standing at football matches, and having lots of bank holidays to have a rally around a hotdog van somewhere.
In the reality away from Pb.com 21st Nov 2019 was a bleak day for Marxism and socialism.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,
Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
Labour will also tax capital gains and dividends at income tax rates, extend stamp duty reserve duty, reverse the Osborne Inheritance tax cut and raise marriage couples tax allowance and introduce a second homes tax
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
Labour's London voteshare of 39% is now higher than the 32% voteshare it has in the Northeast, the 30% Labour votershare in the Northwest and the 29% Labour voteshare in Yorkshire and Humber.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
Labour could lose most of the large rural seats they hold.
There are very few Labour seats left which could plausibly be described as rural, and not that many semi-rural ones either. Before very much longer, you'll be able to list constituencies in order of population density and there'll be a certain point beyond which they can be guaranteed to be non-viable for Labour, in just the same way as listing constituencies by percentage of non-white voters allows one to predict that those beyond a certain critical point are non-viable for the Tories.
In a plausible worst case scenario for Labour, Workington, Durham NW, Bishop Auckland, High Peak, Canterbury, Stroud, Bassetlaw, East Lothian and every Labour seat in North Wales could all go in one night.
I think Lab in North Wales will be protected by the Mersey halo, it is in the south that they will lose the seats.
I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1
Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
In time commuter towns & university hinterlands will replace the coalfields (At parity with the Tories) for Labour I reckon. Not this election, Labour will still hold much of the coalfield vote - but in 50 years time I think we'll basically be Labour urban/ Tories rural.
Wakefield (district) had more coal miners than any other English LAD in the 1970s and 80s.
There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.
But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.
Those last two seats both go blue in the Canadian model. I say this merely to report someone else's model rather than to comment on its usefulness.
Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?
Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.
Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.
Who knows?
Of course Labour's policies are popular. Who wouldn't want free everything? With the media repeating endlessly that 95% of people won't pay anything.
The Conservatives have a massive job on their hands getting it through to people that the vast majority will be paying more - both in higher taxes and also (and perhaps more importantly) in higher interest rates.
How many 1st time buyers are looking forward to going into negative equity? Yet most people appear blissfully unaware of what is coming if Lab wins.
I need you all to forget that I once tipped Richard Burgon as Corbyn's successor at 100/1
Oh please God let TSE win that bet.
Burgon is a mystery. I assume Burgon the Labour Frontbencher is in fact an imposter, as the real Richard Burgon's wikipedia entry assures me that he is a Cambridge graduate.
Is there another Cambridge? In Cloud Cuckoo Land?
Are we sure he wasn't at Anglia Ruskin? I don't wish to besmirch that fine institution, but he is like living proof that A Levels are getting easier.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
I haven't had time to read the full labour manifesto yet,
Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!
Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...
Right, anecdata: #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.
#2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.
Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.
I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
Right, anecdata: #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.
#2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.
Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.
I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
On housing Labour will end right to buy council homes, give councils the power to buy back homes from private landlords, end the conversion of office blocks to homes as permitted development, end sale of leasehold properties, homes immediately and flats at the end of their first term. Leaseholders will be given the right to buy their freehold and rent controls and open-ended tenancies will be introduced for renters
Labours manifesto seems to be going down like a bowl of cold sick in Bolton on Question Time?
Mildly encouraging if true. One does rather gather the impression that QT audiences are disproportionately comprised of lefties.
Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
I’m not watching but just received a message from someone who couldn’t believe how much people seemed to like the Labour policies on QT.
Who knows?
Of course Labour's policies are popular. Who wouldn't want free everything? With the media repeating endlessly that 95% of people won't pay anything.
The Conservatives have a massive job on their hands getting it through to people that the vast majority will be paying more - both in higher taxes and also (and perhaps more importantly) in higher interest rates.
How many 1st time buyers are looking forward to going into negative equity? Yet most people appear blissfully unaware of what is coming if Lab wins.
My point was that, as someone not watching, I am getting messages saying that the audience are all for the Labour policies, and that they are going down like cold sick.
Who knows how they are in fact going down amongst the wider public when people can’t even agree on what a specific audience think.
Right, anecdata: #1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.
#2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.
Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
Yep, the age divide. Young Remania, Old Leaverstan.
I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
Thank you for referring to my school friends - and therefore by implication me - as 'young'. :-)
I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!
Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...
Given the inattention to detail of our politicians its inevitable that many of the manifesto plans will have the opposite effect that they are supposed to.
I don't get Labour's plan to tax private health at 20% - it's already included as an employee benefit in P11D so no change for basic rate taxpayers and for those above the 40% threshold it'll be a tax reduction ?!
Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...
Equally don't get the holiday home double council tax thing. If you run a furnished holiday let, it's a small business with 100% business rates relief. 2 x 0 = 0 even in Labour land.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
Labour will also tax capital gains and dividends at income tax rates, extend stamp duty reserve duty, reverse the Osborne Inheritance tax cut and raise marriage couples tax allowance and introduce a second homes tax
The people of Bolton have not been won over by Corbyn
On the basis of this QT, they are poised to elect Chuka and the SNP.
Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
A pretty pisspoor panel, but she does look a little over stimulated.
There's something anachronistic about Johnson's new Tory Party which hasn't been obvious since the early days of Thatcher. A lot depends on the zeitgeist. For all that the polls are saying this is by no means a popular government
Comments
The modern "Labour' party.
Their aim is to use it to push the Biden conspiracy theories.
And you want someone else to pay for it.
As my old Dad used to say - I wouldn't give him a job sweeping up.
The big cities of the North vote Labour. As do the big cities of the South.
Beyond that, across England and Wales you can pretty much map Labour to this map of UK coalfields, and it has little to do with North/South, other than the South isn't exactly coal country.
http://furthr.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/CEjosBKVEAAe8pM.jpg
Oh.
King Arthur Pendragon: Our political classes have been paralysed, whilst the rest of the world has passed by us. I might not know what works, but I know what does not.
Don’t ram Boris’ deal through with little or no scrutiny just to get it over the line as the Tories would. Don’t pretend the referendum didn’t happen as the Lib Dems would. Don’t subject us to Groundhog Day and start all over again as Labour would.
And don’t leave without a deal as the Brexit Party would!
I voted remain, but like most people who accept the will of the people, I just want to get it over with,and would back any deal that works for us and our European neighbours
https://www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/18049039.general-election-2019-meet-candidates-salisbury/ Save that smiley for the weekend polls!
https://order-order.com/2015/05/27/big-feartie-which-snp-mp-gassed-the-chamber/
One assumes that the current fudge - civil servants running the show, and MPs by-and-large legislating for Northern Ireland only when they have to (i.e. on matters of supply) - is likely to carry on for years.
Why did trump risk so much on dirt on Biden? The answer is either feared Biden or is just stupid.
Labour is now more a London than Northern party under Corbyn
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
But actually its a smart way of getting the message out.
Any decent small c-conservative would be safely at home with a cup of tea, or perhaps cocoa, if not already in bed by this time of night.
£83bn - let's say that's true and forget it's a lowball.
From that £23bn is raised on corporations by increasing corporation tax, this will apparently have no negative impact on employment or investment. Sure.
£60bn comes from those earning more than £80k. There are around 1.3m people who earn more than that in the UK. Quite simply there aren't enough people to get that kind of money from. It works out to an average tax rise of over £40,000 per person in that wage bracket.
This manifesto is fantasy. Nothing in it is credible and anyone who chooses to vote for Labour for any reason is part of that fantasyland.
We're headed for sunlit uplands.
There's talk of Wakefield (constituency) going blue. I'm doubtful.
But Tricket (Hemsworth) and Cooper (PonteCarlo/CasVegas) will be red until 2029 at least. That'll be 40 years after the bulk of the mining jobs went.
https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1197560606494281729?s=21
Who knows?
Who is the woman from the Torygraph, she looks terrified?
catchy
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7712805/Labour-party-manifesto-contains-litany-spending-splurges-financed-slew-tax-hikes.html
And the bloke who went crazy over the tax rises didn’t seem to get much support when the crowd realized he was on over 80,000 a year .
That’s a hell of a lot of money to most people.
It also reinforces Pulpstar's excellent point earlier about how old industrial areas are eventually become commuter towns. After about 40 years.
In a plausible worst case scenario for Labour, Workington, Durham NW, Bishop Auckland, High Peak, Canterbury, Stroud, Bassetlaw, East Lothian and every Labour seat in North Wales could all go in one night.
In other words the sums are stupid and a lot more people will have to pay a lot more tax.
Does ANY mainstream press / TV political journalist realise:
1) The abolition of the marriage tax allowance means that any married person earning over £12,500 will pay extra income tax (if their spouse is not using their full personal allowance).
2) The changes to Dividend taxation mean that anyone with a small business making profits who then pays themselves a dividend will be paying more income tax (if their total income is over £12,500).
I haven't seen the above mentioned on any TV news programme. Is it in any of the morning's papers?
Yet every journalist continues to churn out "only those earning over £80k will pay more tax".
Journalists know so little about the subjects they are attempting to report on that unless someone else literally spoon feeds them what is going on they simply haven't got the faintest idea.
Conservative Central Office needs to have the above points on every journalist's desk right now.
Are they proposing a tax rat for people earning over £80k to get that £60B?
#1 - out in the week with some friends from school from two and a half decades ago. Politics little discussed apart from that one friend now in Guildford favours the Lib Dems as they are Remainiest. However, what struck me was the utter confidence of these people - almost everyone either setting up in business on their own, or buying a bigger house, or buying a second home. Clearly no-one cowed by the prospect of Brexit and/or Corbyn (delete whichever you like to fear most). One of these people was wearing a 'JC for PM' t-shirt two years ago, though his enthusiasm seems to have waned (particularly given that he is one looking to buy a holiday home). Will the Labour manifesto focus any of these minds? Probably not - a breezy confidence that all will be fine and a general unlikelihood of voting Conservative amongst this cohort will overcome that, I think.
#2 - discussing politics with my mother-in-law. She and most of her friends/family voted Remain but the negotiations have hardened attitudes, and are now firmly in the leave camp. Feeling is that MPs are playing silly buggers and that Boris should be given a chance with a majority. Particular scorn for local MP Antoinette Sandbach who claimed to be pro-leave while consistently voting to make leave impossible and who is being somewhat mendacious with her election literature (though I suspect no more than most). Also thinks (as one with connections to Catalonia) that Spain is behaving disgracefully and finds it alarming that our continental brethren are jailing people for holding referenda.
Based on which: Guildford LD gain, Eddisbury Con hold.
It’s a free country, Tories can attack this anyway they want. But if you genuinely believe this is Marxist or even socialist all your opinions are diminished in my eyes. This is a manifesto written by trade union barons, hence the policies like renewing trident has come from radicals caving in to their paymasters.
Where’s the democracy in the Labour Party when what conference votes for is ignored or watered down by craven leadership giving in to union paymasters? The Labour Party membership are just leaflet delivering canon fodder.
What leaps out from this list is a King Corbyn Runnymeded over by Union Barons. It’s not a list of Marxism or radical socialism at all. If there were any tanks on the lawn they didn’t fire a shot. The beer and sandwiches gulped down with greedy wild eyed relish last weekend.
Don’t confuse british trade unionism with socialism, Marxism, anarchism or anything faintly interesting and radical, merely inflating the public sector, state funded infrastructure projects, standing at football matches, and having lots of bank holidays to have a rally around a hotdog van somewhere.
In the reality away from Pb.com 21st Nov 2019 was a bleak day for Marxism and socialism.
2019, it looks like the overall view is the Labour manifesto is fantasy bullshit, which they have zero competence to deliver.
Surely Boris will come up with something popular and plausible on Sunday.
Sherelle Jacobs is the journo who 'went viral' following a Sky News interview earlier this year (which seems like about a decade ago).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/30/me-and-the-woman-in-the-pink-coat
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Funding-Real-Change-2019.pdf
Labour percentages since 1945:
81.4
82.3
83.2
82.1
83.0
85.3
80.7
82.8
76.5
69.6
59.3
67.0
66.3
70.8
71.9
70.6
65.4
58.8
46.8
51.3
56.0
History would seem be against the Canadians.
The Conservatives have a massive job on their hands getting it through to people that the vast majority will be paying more - both in higher taxes and also (and perhaps more importantly) in higher interest rates.
How many 1st time buyers are looking forward to going into negative equity? Yet most people appear blissfully unaware of what is coming if Lab wins.
Seems to be set to encourage private health insurance takeup by companies. Unless I'm missing something here...
I think your Guildford friends are right, though they will not like the cultural cringe of Brexit, they will remain prosperous. Sunderland will enjoy the sovereignty of the dole queue.
And claims Boris campaigns better than May is laughable so far.
https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Real-Change-Labour-Manifesto-2019.pdf
Who knows how they are in fact going down amongst the wider public when people can’t even agree on what a specific audience think.