The problem is even if Jezza crashes and burns in 3 weeks, the Labour party has been overrun by people like him. The Southam Observer / Rachael Riley types have left the building.
Was Rachel Riley a Labour Party member pre Corbyn era?
Genuine question - I didn't think she was but I could be wrong.
Don’t know, but I refuse to believe someone so lovely could ever have been a Tory.
An observation on Labour's tax-raising policies which may not be picked up elsewhere:
They make a very simplistic attempt to estimate the revenues from each of the tax grabs, with to be fair to them some allowance for behavioural changes. Some of the latter are even based on some research or Treasury estimates.
However, you can't just add up the effects of behavioural changes as though they were independent, they are not.
If the cumulative effect of all the tax grabs is draconian, even if the individual measures aren't too bad, then the behaviour change is going to be massive. For example, a rise in the income tax rate might lead a successful business owner to change their behaviour slightly (increased use of Venture Capital Trusts or something like that), with minor tax loss. However, a rise in the income tax rate plus a huge hike to CGT plus an increase in Dividend Tax plus an increase in Corporation Tax plus clobbering of company tax reliefs plus a levy on second homes etc etc is completely different. You leave the country, taking your business with you.
I agree with the general point that combined effects can be significant, but think that the "I'll leave the country if X wins" meme (which I've heard about everyone from Trump to Johnson to Blair) is vastly exaggerated.
Companies certainly move their HQs whenever they think it would help them pay less tax (which is a strong argument for an effective EU-wide tax regime in my unreconstructed opinion - moving outside Europe is a bigger step), but individuals have all kinds of non-financial reasons not to head off to live in Andorra or Kanton Zug.
Otherwise they'd have left already - the tax regimes in those places are far lower than here. And, as they're human as well as businesspeople, they will see advantages having a health service that isn't falling apart and schools that don't ask them to chip in to cover essentials. Most will simply give it a try and see how it goes.
Anyway Sky and BBC have switched on their interminable live broadcast from Trumps impeachment.. They are so out of touch with ordinary folk in their excessive devotion to US politics. We even have the BBC with the idiotic news programme 'beyond 100 days' with joint London and Washingtin anchors
And they wonder why the populace despair at the London media
You might not like it, but what happens in the US is very relevant to us and the rest of the world.
I accept that and no one despises Trump more than I do
It is not the coverage, it is the excessive coverage especially when we are in a GE campaign
The problem is even if Jezza crashes and burns in 3 weeks, the Labour party has been overrun by people like him. The Southam Observer / Rachael Riley types have left the building.
Was Rachel Riley a Labour Party member pre Corbyn era?
Genuine question - I didn't think she was but I could be wrong.
She wasnt. Her latest stunt to photoshop Jezza on an Anti Apartheid protest and swap his banner from "Defend the right to demonstrate against apartheid" to "Jeremy Corbyn is a Racist" is shameful.
I note some Labour supporters are pinning their hopes in seats like Great Grimsby on the fact it has been Labour held since before WWII. They forget that Mansfield had been held by Labour since 1885 until Ben Bradley pushed it into the blue column in 2017.
O/T is it just me or is Mr Schiff who is heading up the impeachment proceedings the spitting image of Charles Logan, the corrupt President of the United States that Jack Bauer brings down in the 5th season of 24?
Rachel Riley: Corbyn is racist, here’s a photo of him (protesting racism) which I doctored in awful taste to fit my right wing agenda
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
This is very unpleasant from you. Riley has been the target of far worse than this, and what really annoys you is she has had the courage to tell the truth about it.
I agree with the general point that combined effects can be significant, but think that the "I'll leave the country if X wins" meme (which I've heard about everyone from Trump to Johnson to Blair) is vastly exaggerated.
Companies certainly move their HQs whenever they think it would help them pay less tax (which is a strong argument for an effective EU-wide tax regime in my unreconstructed opinion - moving outside Europe is a bigger step), but individuals have all kinds of non-financial reasons not to head off to live in Andorra or Kanton Zug.
Otherwise they'd have left already - the tax regimes in those places are far lower than here. And, as they're human as well as businesspeople, they will see advantages having a health service that isn't falling apart and schools that don't ask them to chip in to cover essentials. Most will simply give it a try and see how it goes.
Leaving the country was just an example. You can also just not invest in a new project, or continue to live here but sell your company to a foreign competitor which moves production out of the UK, or a myriad of other behavioural changes.
The sheer ludicrous scale of the money-spraying Corbyn is proposing is quite unlike anything else we have ever seen in the UK, even more than Foot 1983, which was more about taking industrial relations back to the dire days of the Seventies (although this new manifesto seems to include most of that one as well).
Another humdinger for ordinary people's lives which hasn''t been noted is the utterly insane idea of extending all employment rights to all employees from day one. I'm struggling to think of a single previous policy more calculated to increase unemployment. It massively increases the risk of taking on new employees if you haven't got the safety net of being able to get rid of them without fuss if they turn out to be unsuitable or useless.
Any idiot Remainer who votes tactically against the Tories and risks this repulsive communist lunacy is a fucking moron who DESERVES to have their nice Home Counties house seized by the Corbynite Wealth Gestapo. Wise up you twats.
Someone or other was predicting an epochal Swinsonian miracle that would see the LDs replace Labour to become the sensible, centre left choice. Is that not happening now?
Clearly not! I noticed a few weeks ago that women, in particular, really dislike her.
I still don’t quite know why. She seems OK to me. I like her accent.
My mum thinks Jo Swinson has the air of a junior office girl
An observation on Labour's tax-raising policies which may not be picked up elsewhere:
They make a very simplistic attempt to estimate the revenues from each of the tax grabs, with to be fair to them some allowance for behavioural changes. Some of the latter are even based on some research or Treasury estimates.
However, you can't just add up the effects of behavioural changes as though they were independent, they are not.
If the cumulative effect of all the tax grabs is draconian, even if the individual measures aren't too bad, then the behaviour change is going to be massive. For example, a rise in the income tax rate might lead a successful business owner to change their behaviour slightly (increased use of Venture Capital Trusts or something like that), with minor tax loss. However, a rise in the income tax rate plus a huge hike to CGT plus an increase in Dividend Tax plus an increase in Corporation Tax plus clobbering of company tax reliefs plus a levy on second homes etc etc is completely different. You leave the country, taking your business with you.
I actually think the effect will be the opposite. Labour are closing down and rationalizing tax loopholes. So the effectiveness of their tax raises will be greater as there is less room for the kind of tricks you mention.
You think Labour plan to stop people leaving the country?
Isn't it just a story of tactical voting between LD and Lab (and poss Green) for many of those voters, though? Looking at the below, suggests huge tactical swings possible in remainia:
An observation on Labour's tax-raising policies which may not be picked up elsewhere:
They make a very simplistic attempt to estimate the revenues from each of the tax grabs, with to be fair to them some allowance for behavioural changes. Some of the latter are even based on some research or Treasury estimates.
However, you can't just add up the effects of behavioural changes as though they were independent, they are not.
If the cumulative effect of all the tax grabs is draconian, even if the individual measures aren't too bad, then the behaviour change is going to be massive. For example, a rise in the income tax rate might lead a successful business owner to change their behaviour slightly (increased use of Venture Capital Trusts or something like that), with minor tax loss. However, a rise in the income tax rate plus a huge hike to CGT plus an increase in Dividend Tax plus an increase in Corporation Tax plus clobbering of company tax reliefs plus a levy on second homes etc etc is completely different. You leave the country, taking your business with you.
I actually think the effect will be the opposite. Labour are closing down and rationalizing tax loopholes. So the effectiveness of their tax raises will be greater as there is less room for the kind of tricks you mention.
You think Labour plan to stop people leaving the country?
The Berlin Wall wasn't built to stop people from entering the country.
Any idiot Remainer who votes tactically against the Tories and risks this repulsive communist lunacy is a fucking moron who DESERVES to have their nice Home Counties house seized by the Corbynite Wealth Gestapo. Wise up you twats.
Someone or other was predicting an epochal Swinsonian miracle that would see the LDs replace Labour to become the sensible, centre left choice. Is that not happening now?
Clearly not! I noticed a few weeks ago that women, in particular, really dislike her.
I still don’t quite know why. She seems OK to me. I like her accent.
My mum thinks Jo Swinson has the air of a junior office girl
She needs a fashion adviser, her smocks are really ugly
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
Anyway Sky and BBC have switched on their interminable live broadcast from Trumps impeachment.. They are so out of touch with ordinary folk in their excessive devotion to US politics. We even have the BBC with the idiotic news programme 'beyond 100 days' with joint London and Washingtin anchors
And they wonder why the populace despair at the London media
You might not like it, but what happens in the US is very relevant to us and the rest of the world.
I accept that and no one despises Trump more than I do
It is not the coverage, it is the excessive coverage especially when we are in a GE campaign
Every day for the last 3 days has been blockbuster testimony.
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
I am really looking forward to the post-election analysis of which models - more particularly which model assumptions - proved most accurate/inaccurate.
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
No wonder it was only predicting a majority of a few with 15 point leads for the Blues.
Isn't it just a story of tactical voting between LD and Lab (and poss Green) for many of those voters, though? Looking at the below, suggests huge tactical swings possible in remainia:
The low LD score compared to this time last election, when they were polling much lower, suggests that their ~15% VI is very fragile. They could collapse further with LD -> L tactical voting.
But Labour voters aren't much less certain than this point last time, when their VI was similar to now.
The trouble is for the most impact in Remainia uncertain voters would need to move L -> LD
Trumps not being investigated for institutional racism, corbyn is
Ah OK. So the key for you was the announcement of the EHRC investigation. That's what triggered your outrage. Fair enough. And of course you're right about the Trump Administration. It is not as we speak being investigated for institutional racism. Doubt it will be tbh. There isn't the bandwidth, what with all the other stuff.
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
No wonder it was only predicting a majority of a few with 15 point leads for the Blues.
I was talking to someone today who says the wide feeling within the different parties is it feels like hung parliament territory when door knocking and campaigning, but I was questioning them because of all the polling 🤷♂️
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
No wonder it was only predicting a majority of a few with 15 point leads for the Blues.
I was talking to someone today who says the wide feeling within the different parties is it feels like hung parliament territory when door knocking and campaigning, but I was questioning them because of all the polling 🤷♂️
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
Good post Phil, but its not explained why your model thinks the 2019 LDs will so significantly improve upon their 2017 performance of 2.7%. Barnesian's 3% looks low, but yours look quite high to me. Unless you are factoring in Onn's brexityness, in which case fine, sorry for bothering you.
O/T this is an important poll, only the second we have had from a strong Leave voting Labour seat which is on the Tories' target list. It tells the same story as the first (Workington) and thus points to a string of Con gains in other Leave voting Labour seats.
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby: Con 39 Lab 25 LD 12 BXP 19 Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has Con 45 Lab 48 LD 3 BXP 5 Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
I am opposed to fracking and to new nuclear on the basis of the dangers posed to our ecosystems. ...
New nuclear power will mean the continued production of dangerous nuclear waste and an increased risk from radioactive accident and nuclear proliferation. In May, Sellafield nuclear waste site in Cumbria was granted permission to exceed legal limits for the amount of hot radioactive waste it can keep in tanks, following an accident that has led to a backlog of waste.
Corbyn's manifesto, 2019:
The Tories have let down the people of Ynys Môn (Anglesey) by failing to deliver the Wylfa project. Labour will work with people on the island to maximise its potential for new nuclear energy.
So what about the question of anti-Semitism? He suddenly turns from Mr Affable to Mr Angry, as if someone has pressed a switch. ‘There is NO anti-Semitism in the Labour Party,’ he bellows. Huh? How can he believe that when The Jewish Chronicle recently published a poll saying that half the British Jewish community would consider emigrating if Corbyn came to power? That is a pretty serious indictment, surely, if Jews are actually scared of living in Britain under Labour? ‘There is nothing, nothing, nothing in my life that has ever been racist or anti-Semitic in any way.’
And note how quickly he elides from the party to him (he does this pretty frequently whenever the subject is raised). It is perfectly possible for him not to be anti-semitic but for there to be a problem in the party he leads. By making it about him he personalises it and stops people looking at or doing anything about the issues in the party. It's all "le party c'est moi" stuff.
Still struggling to square the stream of truly dire constituency polls for Labour, when their national numbers are stable and (maybe) dribbling upwards.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Its a weird thing to want as a first preference. It is a rational thing to want as an alternative to the most likely outcomes.
Some will be answering do they want a hung parliament as a first preference, others answering do they want a hung parliament or tory majority, others answering do they want a hung parliament instead of either labour or tories (but not considering a LD or Green govt).
Aggregating those answers fills media space but tells us very little.
Rachel Riley: Corbyn is racist, here’s a photo of him (protesting racism) which I doctored in awful taste to fit my right wing agenda
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
This is very unpleasant from you. Riley has been the target of far worse than this, and what really annoys you is she has had the courage to tell the truth about it.
No she changed an image of Corbyn actually opposing Racist Apartheid to one changing the words on the banner to Corbyn is a Racist
Any idiot Remainer who votes tactically against the Tories and risks this repulsive communist lunacy is a fucking moron who DESERVES to have their nice Home Counties house seized by the Corbynite Wealth Gestapo. Wise up you twats.
Someone or other was predicting an epochal Swinsonian miracle that would see the LDs replace Labour to become the sensible, centre left choice. Is that not happening now?
Clearly not! I noticed a few weeks ago that women, in particular, really dislike her.
I still don’t quite know why. She seems OK to me. I like her accent.
"Bollocks to the Biggest Democratic Decision this Country has Made" as a slogan might have something to do with it.
But it isn’t that. I asked these women why they disliked Swinson. They admitted it was a reflexive, intuitive reaction. Swinson seems to annoy. One of those faces, maybe
It is because she is shouty and shrill and like Violet Elizabeth Bott being cute just doesn't make up for it - at least not for me.
Isn't it just a story of tactical voting between LD and Lab (and poss Green) for many of those voters, though? Looking at the below, suggests huge tactical swings possible in remainia:
The low LD score compared to this time last election, when they were polling much lower, suggests that their ~15% VI is very fragile. They could collapse further with LD -> L tactical voting.
But Labour voters aren't much less certain than this point last time, when their VI was similar to now.
The trouble is for the most impact in Remainia uncertain voters would need to move L -> LD
I mean, the current vote share could be really good for remainia if it is efficiently spread. So if in SW and South in general (not London) L votes go LD, and in the North and Midlands LD votes go L, that could create a scenario where both L and LD vote share is where it is now, but they get more seats out of it than they otherwise would. That's why having a 3rd of the uncertain LDs and L votes having each other as their most likely eventual choice makes this messy...
Still struggling to square the stream of truly dire constituency polls for Labour, when their national numbers are stable and (maybe) dribbling upwards.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Rachel Riley: Corbyn is racist, here’s a photo of him (protesting racism) which I doctored in awful taste to fit my right wing agenda
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
This is very unpleasant from you. Riley has been the target of far worse than this, and what really annoys you is she has had the courage to tell the truth about it.
No she changed an image of Corbyn actually opposing Racist Apartheid to one changing the words on the banner to Corbyn is a Racist
Why not rebut the story rather than attack the journalist?
But assuming for the sake of argument that the "story" IS false and malicious, why should its author be exempt from attack? Not abuse, I don't mean that, but strong and personal criticism.
Still struggling to square the stream of truly dire constituency polls for Labour, when their national numbers are stable and (maybe) dribbling upwards.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Labour gaining in seats they can't really win / wracking up numbers in safe London / Manc / Birmingham seats, but losing their base support in some Brexity seats?
Still struggling to square the stream of truly dire constituency polls for Labour, when their national numbers are stable and (maybe) dribbling upwards.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Piling up votes in the metropolis?
Sounds plausible, but the London subsamples are not good for them (happy to be corrected).
Could be that Liverpool/Manchester/B'ham/Newcastle will break strongly Labour, I suppose. It's not resonating with my waters, though.
Inside the BBC, Bercow’s attempt to impose conditions on the interview have been contrasted with , Prince Andrew’s decision to appear on the British public broadcaster this week with no strings attached.
“There’s Andrew, a royal, with serious sexual allegations against him agreeing for a full-on, no red-lines interview,” a BBC source said.
“Then Bercow, trying to puff up his post-speaker career on the talk circuit, throwing a tantrum and cancelling an interview with the Beeb.”
Rachel Riley: Corbyn is racist, here’s a photo of him (protesting racism) which I doctored in awful taste to fit my right wing agenda
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
This is very unpleasant from you. Riley has been the target of far worse than this, and what really annoys you is she has had the courage to tell the truth about it.
No she changed an image of Corbyn actually opposing Racist Apartheid to one changing the words on the banner to Corbyn is a Racist
She wasnt. Her latest stunt to photoshop Jezza on an Anti Apartheid protest and swap his banner from "Defend the right to demonstrate against apartheid" to "Jeremy Corbyn is a Racist" is shameful.
She is a Troll
That, I must admit, is rather my impression. And I'm not one to just assume that of anybody saying something damaging about Corbyn and antisemitism. My sense is that there is a problem in this area.
Still struggling to square the stream of truly dire constituency polls for Labour, when their national numbers are stable and (maybe) dribbling upwards.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Piling up votes in the metropolis?
Sounds plausible, but the London subsamples are not good for them (happy to be corrected).
Could be that Liverpool/Manchester/B'ham/Newcastle will break strongly Labour, I suppose. It's not resonating with my waters, though.
Some classes of voters are simply 'more available to comment' than others?
It must be much tougher to reach the blokes on the building sites and in the factories with the 'We love Boris signs' than, say, students? or mumsnet mums?
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
The cross tabs tell the story in the Great Grimsby poll. Undecideds are disproportionately people who voted Labour in 2017. We've seen this pattern in a number of polls recently.
When they report the headline polls by excluding undecideds, the sample base then becomes one which was more Tory than Labour in 2017.
From a betting perspective, I think that most of those undecideds who voted Labour last time will revert to Labour again, encourged by the Labour/Momentum driven GOTV effort.
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Rachel Riley: Corbyn is racist, here’s a photo of him (protesting racism) which I doctored in awful taste to fit my right wing agenda
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
This is very unpleasant from you. Riley has been the target of far worse than this, and what really annoys you is she has had the courage to tell the truth about it.
No she changed an image of Corbyn actually opposing Racist Apartheid to one changing the words on the banner to Corbyn is a Racist
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Mel
Welcome to PB. I don’t think those are typically offered.
The cross tabs tell the story in the Great Grimsby poll. Undecideds are disproportionately people who voted Labour in 2017. We've seen this pattern in a number of polls recently.
When they report the headline polls by excluding undecideds, the sample base then becomes one which was more Tory than Labour in 2017.
From a betting perspective, I think that most of those undecideds who voted Labour last time will revert to Labour again, encourged by the Labour/Momentum driven GOTV effort.
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Mel
Welcome to PB. Sadly, a bookmaker will call these “related contingencies”, meaning that the results are not independent events, which is why they won’t offer you an accumulator on several.
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Mel
They are related contingencies so bookies will never offer accumulators on them.
The only exception to this is that occasionally you'll get a special bet on some specific combination, but that will be priced up by the bookie specially.
Any idiot Remainer who votes tactically against the Tories and risks this repulsive communist lunacy is a fucking moron who DESERVES to have their nice Home Counties house seized by the Corbynite Wealth Gestapo. Wise up you twats.
Someone or other was predicting an epochal Swinsonian miracle that would see the LDs replace Labour to become the sensible, centre left choice. Is that not happening now?
Clearly not! I noticed a few weeks ago that women, in particular, really dislike her.
I still don’t quite know why. She seems OK to me. I like her accent.
My mum thinks Jo Swinson has the air of a junior office girl
In an over-manned totally inefficient office - the sort who will ask you if you want tea / coffee disappear for 10 mins - and come back with neither.
Looking forward to Thornberry on election night on the Beeb We've had great results in Liverpool. Birkenhead was disappointing but Frank is a long established MP there. Manchester was a real tour de force for us. You're now off to your count, are you confident of holding your seat? Well, lets see shall we?
Corbyn isn't a racist, he is simply expedient about racism. Right now, anti-semitism suits his political purposes, and so he tolerates it.
Apologies in advance for this because it's such an obvious comment, but I do think it ought to be made, so why not by me.
Here goes -
And many of Corbyn's biggest critics on this are not truly horrified by racism in all its forms, they are simply being opportunistic. Right now, the charge of antisemitism suits their political purposes and hence they push it for all they are worth.
Corbyn isn't a racist, he is simply expedient about racism. Right now, anti-semitism suits his political purposes, and so he tolerates it.
Apologies in advance for this because it's such an obvious comment, but I do think it ought to be made, so why not by me.
Here goes -
And many of Corbyn's biggest critics on this are not truly horrified by racism in all its forms, they are simply being opportunistic. Right now, the charge of antisemitism suits their political purposes and hence they push it for all they are worth.
Using it for less-than-holy purposes does not, however, make it untrue.
The cross tabs tell the story in the Great Grimsby poll. Undecideds are disproportionately people who voted Labour in 2017. We've seen this pattern in a number of polls recently.
When they report the headline polls by excluding undecideds, the sample base then becomes one which was more Tory than Labour in 2017.
From a betting perspective, I think that most of those undecideds who voted Labour last time will revert to Labour again, encourged by the Labour/Momentum driven GOTV effort.
Is it enough to flip the seat ?
If all the undecideds who are certain to vote all went to Labour it would be very close.
If the Labour vote is not holding up in Great Grimsby, where is it?
Existing no hope Conservative held seats?
Basically yes. According to my model anyway. Plus of course their vote share is currently down about 10pp or more nationally on current polls so it doesn't really need to hold up anywhere to be consistent with this Grimsby polling. Equally Grimsby is exactly the sort of seat Labour would lose - even if we ended up in hung parliament - so I would be wary of over extrapolating it.
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Mel
They are related contingencies so bookies will never offer accumulators on them.
The only exception to this is that occasionally you'll get a special bet on some specific combination, but that will be priced up by the bookie specially.
Betting staff will have a blanket ban on any sort of constituency acca - even a daft one.
They won't accept a £2 multiple on Con Gain Liverpool Walton and Lab Gain South Holland and the Deepings.
Hi Guys, Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time. Thanks
Mel
They're not independent so accumulators aren't permitted generally. I doubt you'll find any that allow it.
Corbyn isn't a racist, he is simply expedient about racism. Right now, anti-semitism suits his political purposes, and so he tolerates it.
Apologies in advance for this because it's such an obvious comment, but I do think it ought to be made, so why not by me.
Here goes -
And many of Corbyn's biggest critics on this are not truly horrified by racism in all its forms, they are simply being opportunistic. Right now, the charge of antisemitism suits their political purposes and hence they push it for all they are worth.
It's more horrified by Labour in all its forms. Their racism is just one of many things to attack them on. There are plenty of others, economic incompetence, cosying up to enemies of the country, unpatriotic treachery, inviting terrorists to the HoC, betraying the working class etc etc
An observation on Labour's tax-raising policies which may not be picked up elsewhere:
They make a very simplistic attempt to estimate the revenues from each of the tax grabs, with to be fair to them some allowance for behavioural changes. Some of the latter are even based on some research or Treasury estimates.
However, you can't just add up the effects of behavioural changes as though they were independent, they are not.
If the cumulative effect of all the tax grabs is draconian, even if the individual measures aren't too bad, then the behaviour change is going to be massive. For example, a rise in the income tax rate might lead a successful business owner to change their behaviour slightly (increased use of Venture Capital Trusts or something like that), with minor tax loss. However, a rise in the income tax rate plus a huge hike to CGT plus an increase in Dividend Tax plus an increase in Corporation Tax plus clobbering of company tax reliefs plus a levy on second homes etc etc is completely different. You leave the country, taking your business with you.
I actually think the effect will be the opposite. Labour are closing down and rationalizing tax loopholes. So the effectiveness of their tax raises will be greater as there is less room for the kind of tricks you mention.
You think Labour plan to stop people leaving the country?
That will comfort the Jews....
If you convince yourself and everyone else that you are not anti-semitic then obviously everything and anything you do cannot possibly be anti-semitic.
The cross tabs tell the story in the Great Grimsby poll. Undecideds are disproportionately people who voted Labour in 2017. We've seen this pattern in a number of polls recently.
When they report the headline polls by excluding undecideds, the sample base then becomes one which was more Tory than Labour in 2017.
From a betting perspective, I think that most of those undecideds who voted Labour last time will revert to Labour again, encourged by the Labour/Momentum driven GOTV effort.
Comments
https://twitter.com/i/status/1197520347551145985
Companies certainly move their HQs whenever they think it would help them pay less tax (which is a strong argument for an effective EU-wide tax regime in my unreconstructed opinion - moving outside Europe is a bigger step), but individuals have all kinds of non-financial reasons not to head off to live in Andorra or Kanton Zug.
Otherwise they'd have left already - the tax regimes in those places are far lower than here. And, as they're human as well as businesspeople, they will see advantages having a health service that isn't falling apart and schools that don't ask them to chip in to cover essentials. Most will simply give it a try and see how it goes.
It is not the coverage, it is the excessive coverage especially when we are in a GE campaign
She is a Troll
People: that’s shit Rachel
Rachel: omg I’m being cyber bullied this is digusting can’t believe it I’m a poor white blonde girl leave me alone
The sheer ludicrous scale of the money-spraying Corbyn is proposing is quite unlike anything else we have ever seen in the UK, even more than Foot 1983, which was more about taking industrial relations back to the dire days of the Seventies (although this new manifesto seems to include most of that one as well).
Another humdinger for ordinary people's lives which hasn''t been noted is the utterly insane idea of extending all employment rights to all employees from day one. I'm struggling to think of a single previous policy more calculated to increase unemployment. It massively increases the risk of taking on new employees if you haven't got the safety net of being able to get rid of them without fuss if they turn out to be unsuitable or useless.
All: 59%
Con: 71%
Lab: 54%
LD: 40%
https://t.co/FUDaL7yJxW #ge2019 https://t.co/UGXWLYeA8u
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7710789/Millionaire-pop-star-Lily-Allen-bursts-tears-watching-Jeremy-Corbyn-announce-manifesto.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50486713
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1197507032468918272?fbclid=IwAR2_qLojRtvLCm0p3XcauiWYX3EpSxR_yuc_jKnDK0wpcIBqub2YDrMTZxo
https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/1197528747144024067?s=20
For the record, my model (based on late October YouGov polling and following preferences of Leave/Remain voters according to each 2017 party category) has the following for Great Grimsby:
Con 39
Lab 25
LD 12
BXP 19
Green 5
Once you make some further tweaks to allow for a small amount of tactical vote switching to Lab and Con, and factor in the national opinion poll shifts since late October, that seems in the right ball park i.e. generating a result not far from this poll.
By contrast, Barnesian's model for Great Grimsby has
Con 45
Lab 48
LD 3
BXP 5
Green 0
That's way out compared to what the poll is saying. Lab vote overstated by 17%.
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1197504856761815041?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1197504856761815041&ref_url=https://order-order.com/
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1197528530688626695/photo/1
The low LD score compared to this time last election, when they were polling much lower, suggests that their ~15% VI is very fragile. They could collapse further with LD -> L tactical voting.
But Labour voters aren't much less certain than this point last time, when their VI was similar to now.
The trouble is for the most impact in Remainia uncertain voters would need to move L -> LD
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1197531042393014273?s=20
Con 40
Lab 31
LD 5
BXP 15
Green 6.
Corbyn, 2015:
No to fracking, no to new nuclear power
I am opposed to fracking and to new nuclear on the basis of the dangers posed to our ecosystems. ...
New nuclear power will mean the continued production of dangerous nuclear waste and an increased risk from radioactive accident and nuclear proliferation. In May, Sellafield nuclear waste site in Cumbria was granted permission to exceed legal limits for the amount of hot radioactive waste it can keep in tanks, following an accident that has led to a backlog of waste.
Corbyn's manifesto, 2019:
The Tories have let down the people of Ynys Môn (Anglesey) by failing to deliver the Wylfa project. Labour will work with people on the island to maximise its potential for new nuclear energy.
https://theecologist.org/2015/aug/07/jeremy-corbyn-green-britain-i-want-build
Sneaky and dishonest.
Any ideas? [BJO: Yougov is not being controlled by the Tories]
Some will be answering do they want a hung parliament as a first preference, others answering do they want a hung parliament or tory majority, others answering do they want a hung parliament instead of either labour or tories (but not considering a LD or Green govt).
Aggregating those answers fills media space but tells us very little.
She is a troll
Corbyn is a racist.
Could be that Liverpool/Manchester/B'ham/Newcastle will break strongly Labour, I suppose. It's not resonating with my waters, though.
She isnt a journalist btw
“There’s Andrew, a royal, with serious sexual allegations against him agreeing for a full-on, no red-lines interview,” a BBC source said.
“Then Bercow, trying to puff up his post-speaker career on the talk circuit, throwing a tantrum and cancelling an interview with the Beeb.”
https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/bercow-bbc-demands?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/21/priti-patel-says-tory-government-not-to-blame-for-poverty-in-uk
1: British Jews need to learn to understand English irony.
2: Jeremy Corbyn is a racist.
It must be much tougher to reach the blokes on the building sites and in the factories with the 'We love Boris signs' than, say, students? or mumsnet mums?
He was castigated by none other than Seamus Milne for the former, and voted against the phenomenal achievement that was the Good Friday Agreement.
Man's a complete twat.
Existing no hope Conservative held seats?
You are acting as the troll BJO
https://order-order.com/2019/11/19/corbyn-claimed-jewish-newspapers-victorian-era-made-jews-powerful/
Anyone knows which online sites or betting shops would accept a cumulative or bankers bet on several constituencies together? I have tried several, but all they allow are single bets, on one Constituency at a time.
Thanks
Mel
https://www.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1197528262790004737
When they report the headline polls by excluding undecideds, the sample base then becomes one which was more Tory than Labour in 2017.
From a betting perspective, I think that most of those undecideds who voted Labour last time will revert to Labour again, encourged by the Labour/Momentum driven GOTV effort.
The only exception to this is that occasionally you'll get a special bet on some specific combination, but that will be priced up by the bookie specially.
We've had great results in Liverpool. Birkenhead was disappointing but Frank is a long established MP there. Manchester was a real tour de force for us.
You're now off to your count, are you confident of holding your seat?
Well, lets see shall we?
Here goes -
And many of Corbyn's biggest critics on this are not truly horrified by racism in all its forms, they are simply being opportunistic. Right now, the charge of antisemitism suits their political purposes and hence they push it for all they are worth.
They won't accept a £2 multiple on Con Gain Liverpool Walton and Lab Gain South Holland and the Deepings.
I mean they probably should, but they won't.