My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
"The Tes poll shows that 45 per cent of teachers plan to vote Labour next month, with the Lib Dems and Tories attracting 22 per cent and 14 per cent of the teacher vote respectively."
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
The disco music was fantastic. (I'm a retrospective fan, I wasn't around at the time).
No you have a point there the music ( not just disco) was great. Sitting in a black out from 18.00 to 22.00 eating a bit of toast your mum had hurriedly stuck under the grill as she got home from work at 17.45 not so much. Also quizzing your dad why he’d got Deutschmark travellers’ cheques as we were in Spain for a week “ because you couldn’t rely on the Pound not being suspended”.
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
The disco music was fantastic. (I'm a retrospective fan, I wasn't around at the time).
No you have a point there the music ( not just disco) was great. Sitting in a black out from 18.00 to 22.00 eating a bit of toast your mum had hurriedly stuck under the grill as she got home from work at 17.45 not so much. Also quizzing your dad why he’d got Deutschmark travellers’ cheques as we were in Spain for a week “ because you couldn’t rely on the Pound not being suspended”.
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
You know the power cuts were under a Tory government right?
Labour down with the Tories and LDs gaining, great poll for the Tories
Average of 4 polls so far this week:
Con 42.8 Lab 30.0 LD 14.8 BXP 4.0
Con lead 12.8
The average Tory lead was 15.5% at this stage in GE2017, but it had already begun to fall.
In 2017 the Tories began the campaign on 50%, so it was difficult for them to go in any other direction than down.
Fake news.
The Tories didn't begin GE17 on 50% - the average of the six polls before the election was called was 42.8%. It rose during the first few weeks of the election, to sit in the 45-50% range, then fell back to the 40-45% range during the last three weeks.
They really go down that much though, it was more that Labour went up.
This was also my understanding.
And indeed they are still just about, under where they were in 2017.
But crucially for me anyway, Johnson is a lot less popular than May was. Albeit Corbyn is a lot less popular too.
I just don't see the 'Johnson a lot less popular than May' argument. No-one liked May, they 'respected' her. Johnson seriously divides opinion, and that's a whole different ballgame. Once your tribe sees how you rile the opposition, they'll double down on lining up behind you. There are a lot of shy Johnsonians out there...
No one liked May...so that's why she went in with - from what I recall - higher ratings than Thatcher?
I know what the atmosphere was like. And it wasn't as you describe.
I think there are a lot of shy Labourites as well, they just need a reason to come home.
I still maintain that people respected her for the whole 'strong and stable' schtick (before it started to curdle) but they never 'liked' her in the same way that Boris' supporters like him. They respected her for trying to square the Brexit circle, and trying to be the grown up after the nasty boys had smashed the windows and run away.
The fact that BoZo craps on everyone who likes him doesn't bode well for those mugs.
"The Tes poll shows that 45 per cent of teachers plan to vote Labour next month, with the Lib Dems and Tories attracting 22 per cent and 14 per cent of the teacher vote respectively."
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
The disco music was fantastic. (I'm a retrospective fan, I wasn't around at the time).
No you have a point there the music ( not just disco) was great. Sitting in a black out from 18.00 to 22.00 eating a bit of toast your mum had hurriedly stuck under the grill as she got home from work at 17.45 not so much. Also quizzing your dad why he’d got Deutschmark travellers’ cheques as we were in Spain for a week “ because you couldn’t rely on the Pound not being suspended”.
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
You know the power cuts were under a Tory government right?
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
The disco music was fantastic. (I'm a retrospective fan, I wasn't around at the time).
No you have a point there the music ( not just disco) was great. Sitting in a black out from 18.00 to 22.00 eating a bit of toast your mum had hurriedly stuck under the grill as she got home from work at 17.45 not so much. Also quizzing your dad why he’d got Deutschmark travellers’ cheques as we were in Spain for a week “ because you couldn’t rely on the Pound not being suspended”.
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
You know the power cuts were under a Tory government right?
They were under both. And they were caused by rampant uncontrolled union power that held the whole country to ransom no matter who was in office.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
The disco music was fantastic. (I'm a retrospective fan, I wasn't around at the time).
No you have a point there the music ( not just disco) was great. Sitting in a black out from 18.00 to 22.00 eating a bit of toast your mum had hurriedly stuck under the grill as she got home from work at 17.45 not so much. Also quizzing your dad why he’d got Deutschmark travellers’ cheques as we were in Spain for a week “ because you couldn’t rely on the Pound not being suspended”.
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
You know the power cuts were under a Tory government right?
They were under both. And they were caused by rampant uncontrolled union power that held the whole country to ransom no matter who was in office.
She seems very nice-certainly more pleasant and brighter than Corbyn or Johnson-but she's no Nicola Sturgeon. If she was leading Labour Johnson wouldn't be in the race.
Swinson is too nice. Nicola Sturgeon has that loathable "quality"
You're precisely the sort of person who'd be snivelling about misogyny at anyone saying *insert name of female Tory* was loathable.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
The memory of 2017 and the years of paralysis that followed is the most powerful recruiting sergeant for the Tories this time around, apart from Corbyn himself. No one on either side believes the polls as a result of that experience, and that's immensely helpful in avoiding complacency in the electorate.
I can confirm that paralysis and Corbyn are huge issues on the doorstep.
Now, that might just be a unique effect in Totnes. But I'm thinking that is unlikely...
I've never been to Totnes, but my affection for it only grows on reading your reports!
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
Would require new trains and I don't think that's likely whilst the TOCs get to use cheap old stock in many cases
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
Evidence please
Devaluation, deindustrialisation, unsustainable government spending to finance special interest groups. Boomer pensioners are the new wreckers.
Newsnight: LDs may vote for Johnson's deal if it includes a referendum.
His deal would have passed in the old Parliament if he had kept at it.
Not a chance. Parliament was given umpteen goes and said no to any effective measures to enact a deal. The best they’d give was to sanction something in theory and then deny any real means to bring it into effect, despite 85% being elected in a platform of concurring with the referendum result. Total shysters.
There are exactly 3 weeks to go to the election. If Labour's manifesto doesn't set the world on fire, or worse, contains some dementia-tax-level raids on the middle class...
It seems only yesterday certain relatively new posters were pushing the closing gap line.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
Newsnight: LDs may vote for Johnson's deal if it includes a referendum.
It's clear her strategy is to win over Tory Remainers.
Maybe she's realised that her 100% revoke policy was slightly too hard-core for a lot of LD voters in the likes of Cornwall and Devon.
I think she's realised the surge she had from Labour voters is dying as they return to the party they actually want to vote for, leaving her with a far more concentrated ex-Tory vote?
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
Would require new trains and I don't think that's likely whilst the TOCs get to use cheap old stock in many cases
Even new trains are not providing them - that's a scandal.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
Would require new trains and I don't think that's likely whilst the TOCs get to use cheap old stock in many cases
To be absolutely fair, all of the shitty old trains are now gone from Thameslink and Great Northern. Although their rolling stock is necessarily built with cattle class commuters in mind and is, therefore, not half as nice as the new trains that have started appearing when you travel from Cambridge up to Norwich. They're very comfortable.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
Evidence please
Devaluation, deindustrialisation, unsustainable government spending to finance special interest groups. Boomer pensioners are the new wreckers.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
Evidence please
Devaluation, deindustrialisation, unsustainable government spending to finance special interest groups. Boomer pensioners are the new wreckers.
Against the original prevailing wisdom the Tories promises on spending are actually possibly the perfect strategy against Corbyn. It makes it much harder to attack from the left, and if people think Johnson is splurging cash unaffordable, then they’re hardly going to go running to Corbyn. It is quite a simple message - “affordable” vs “unaffordable” spending and Labour’s weak position on Brexit means they can’t leverage to this as an explanation for why they can spend more.
Exactly. Corbyn's perceived immense profligacy gives the Tories loads of elbow room to flash the cash themselves to get working class votes and if middle class voters don't like it they can go 'at least we won't be spending as much as that guy...'
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
How exactly? It doesn’t ( sans Corbyn)
Foxy is letting his prejudices run away with him again
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
You said the guards are "pointless"; I said, not from my perspective, they're not.
"The Tes poll shows that 45 per cent of teachers plan to vote Labour next month, with the Lib Dems and Tories attracting 22 per cent and 14 per cent of the teacher vote respectively."
Yup go to a key marginal and say this. Win them over
But if the government is responsible for poverty surely that means that by extension the government is also responsible for everything else in life — like success, happiness, contentedness, sorrow, boredom, irritation, etc. That sounds like a totalitarian society to me. You can't just single out one aspect of life that the government is supposedly all-powerfully responsible for. I'm not saying the government can't help and assist with some aspects of life.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
So when you get rid of all of the guards, who will pay for their unemployment benefit?
Against the original prevailing wisdom the Tories promises on spending are actually possibly the perfect strategy against Corbyn. It makes it much harder to attack from the left, and if people think Johnson is splurging cash unaffordable, then they’re hardly going to go running to Corbyn. It is quite a simple message - “affordable” vs “unaffordable” spending and Labour’s weak position on Brexit means they can’t leverage to this as an explanation for why they can spend more.
Exactly. Corbyn's perceived immense profligacy gives the Tories loads of elbow room to flash the cash themselves to get working class votes and if middle class voters don't like it they can go 'at least we won't be spending as much as that guy...'
"The Tes poll shows that 45 per cent of teachers plan to vote Labour next month, with the Lib Dems and Tories attracting 22 per cent and 14 per cent of the teacher vote respectively."
It’s a fact not appreciated by the London centric political class that there are areas of the country where social rents are actually higher than market rents.
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
Evidence please
Devaluation, deindustrialisation, unsustainable government spending to finance special interest groups. Boomer pensioners are the new wreckers.
Thats not evidence is it.
Quite obviously predictions cannot be proven until after the event, but the Tories are going to push through a Brexit based on increased government spending at the same time as taking a hit on economic growth. That is the recipe for Seventies style stagflation.
The drive will come from working class pensioners, not workers themselves, but Seventies redux. That 30 year old striking grave digger or power worker is now a seventy year old pensioner, so it is even often literally the same people driving economic decline.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
I would have thought that a guard would be pretty handy in the event of an accident, particularly one in which the driver has been injured.
Then the question is whether the insurance of having a guard in that circumstance is worth the expense of paying for a guard for all the times when it isn't necessary. Can't answer that question in terms of the numbers, but I can see the point of them.
The billions should always be put in numbers not letters. More impact.
Not sure that's true.
I was shocked recently when someone I know who is very clever, graduate, professional career etc. asked me how many million there are in a billion. I think many people see £million, £billion, £trillion as all the same - a lot.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
My perception is that trains are a big issue in the SE of England, but out in the sticks, perhaps less so.
Leeds station handles 27,000* commuters per day. Maybe 40,000 people commute into Leeds on occasion, presumably from the surrounding areas of West Yorkshire and out toward York. For the whole of the county - maybe rail 60,000 commuters?
West Yorkshire has a workforce of 1.2 million, so maybe rail commuters into Leeds account for 5% of the workforce.
I'd suggest that at least a million workers in the county couldn't give a toss about the commuter trains which, incidentally, are a disgrace for overcrowding and unreliability. 30 year old Pacers are not the best,
* I accept that the 27,000 is the only actual fact in my post - others 'stats' are my best effort.
There are at least 7 labour held marginal seats in the county that the tories might expect to win. I honestly don't see the railways as a vote winner here.
It’s a fact not appreciated by the London centric political class that there are areas of the country where social rents are actually higher than market rents.
What do we call “council” houses in local authority areas where they no longer exist?
Social housing.
My point is that Labour pledge to build 100,000 “council” houses. But it doesn’t sound like an effective delivery model if it is dependent on directing cash in different ways depending on the situation in different local authority areas. It’s a slogan without much thought of how it will be implemented. There are neighbouring council areas which have large housing departments right next to others than have almost none.
"The Tes poll shows that 45 per cent of teachers plan to vote Labour next month, with the Lib Dems and Tories attracting 22 per cent and 14 per cent of the teacher vote respectively."
45% is pretty low I'd have thought. It's only 4% above what Labour got overall last time.
The ridiculous levels of Labour support amongst teachers are the best reason for not letting those under the age of 18 vote (and perhaps raising the voting age a little higher!). If the boot were on the other foot, would Labour be happy for new voters to be released into the wild after more than a decade of compulsory indoctrination in a closed community of Conservative diehards?
Have Labour missed a trick not arranging for an unauthorised leak of their manifesto?
It seemed to work well for them last time.
At the risk of making prediction which won't age well, I suspect Labour's manifesto will be liberally sprinkled with goodies that will go down well and give them a boost.
The Tories will be a damp squib, I suspect. (Could be wishful thinking )
"How accessible are our new Azuma trains? Our new Azuma trains are as accessible as our current fleet" Great!
That does sound rather daft. I wasn't paying particular attention because I wasn't travelling with someone who needed them, but I'm sure that the new train I used last time I travelled between Cambridge and Norwich had its own ramps which extended automatically across the little gap between the train and the platform. One would've thought that, in 2019, this would neither be an avant garde concept nor one that was particularly challenging to engineer, but apparently so...
Labour will promise free social care like in Scotland.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
It might work.
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
Quite I’m “only” 55 but the 70’s are seared into my brain. I have zero desire to go back. None. It was crap.
Tough. Brexit takes us back there.
Evidence please
Devaluation, deindustrialisation, unsustainable government spending to finance special interest groups. Boomer pensioners are the new wreckers.
Thats not evidence is it.
Quite obviously predictions cannot be proven until after the event, but the Tories are going to push through a Brexit based on increased government spending at the same time as taking a hit on economic growth. That is the recipe for Seventies style stagflation.
The drive will come from working class pensioners, not workers themselves, but Seventies redux. That 30 year old striking grave digger or power worker is now a seventy year old pensioner, so it is even often literally the same people driving economic decline.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
Haven't there been guards on trains for more than a century (since the beginning?), and the strikes are about removing them?
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
I would have thought that a guard would be pretty handy in the event of an accident, particularly one in which the driver has been injured.
Then the question is whether the insurance of having a guard in that circumstance is worth the expense of paying for a guard for all the times when it isn't necessary. Can't answer that question in terms of the numbers, but I can see the point of them.
It’s a fact not appreciated by the London centric political class that there are areas of the country where social rents are actually higher than market rents.
Then they ain't social rents, are they?
Yes they are. “Social rent” has a specific meaning - basically based on a formula rigidly linked to house prices and other localised factors in 1999, uplifted subsequently by inflation. Similarly “affordable rent” has a meaning (based around 80% of the market rate). In London the situation is clearly SR < AR < MR. It’s not the same everywhere.
Against the original prevailing wisdom the Tories promises on spending are actually possibly the perfect strategy against Corbyn. It makes it much harder to attack from the left, and if people think Johnson is splurging cash unaffordable, then they’re hardly going to go running to Corbyn. It is quite a simple message - “affordable” vs “unaffordable” spending and Labour’s weak position on Brexit means they can’t leverage to this as an explanation for why they can spend more.
Exactly. Corbyn's perceived immense profligacy gives the Tories loads of elbow room to flash the cash themselves to get working class votes and if middle class voters don't like it they can go 'at least we won't be spending as much as that guy...'
'at least we won't be spending as much of your money as that guy...'
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trainsas it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
Haven't there been guards on trains for more than a century (since the beginning?), and the strikes are about removing them?
The billions should always be put in numbers not letters. More impact.
Not sure that's true.
I was shocked recently when someone I know who is very clever, graduate, professional career etc. asked me how many million there are in a billion. I think many people see £million, £billion, £trillion as all the same - a lot.
1,000,000 - 1,000,000,000 - 1,000,000.000,000 - it's my point.
"How accessible are our new Azuma trains? Our new Azuma trains are as accessible as our current fleet" Great!
That does sound rather daft. I wasn't paying particular attention because I wasn't travelling with someone who needed them, but I'm sure that the new train I used last time I travelled between Cambridge and Norwich had its own ramps which extended automatically across the little gap between the train and the platform. One would've thought that, in 2019, this would neither be an avant garde concept nor one that was particularly challenging to engineer, but apparently so...
Paging Sunil - he'll probably know!
I have never come across a train with automatic ramps but I do hope they exist somewhere. I find it genuinely surprising given the progess mad in other areas (e.g. buses) that they haven't arrived on trains (maybe the presence of guards is a disincentive?).
On the continent they have step-free access to trains on some trains in France and the Netherlands.
The billions should always be put in numbers not letters. More impact.
Not sure that's true.
I was shocked recently when someone I know who is very clever, graduate, professional career etc. asked me how many million there are in a billion. I think many people see £million, £billion, £trillion as all the same - a lot.
1,000,000 - 1,000,000,000 - 1,000,000.000,000 - it's my point.
Sorry, completely misread your post! Yes, I agree.
@alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The arithmetic says Tory hold in Finchley and Lab hold in Hampstead. But these are both good examples of local factors that the model doesn't know. You need to apply your own local knowledge to the base case.
@Andy_JS Thanks for pointing out the Yeovil "anomoly". This is an example were the multiplicative model is too fiercely supportive of a high previous share. I've brought the multiplicative weight back to 25% which I'm more comfortable with for reasons that I can explain (but a bit technical) and Yeovil is a Tory retain.
I appreciate the effort that goes into constituency modelling but I am afraid to say that looking at some extreme results in your model I think the methodology must be badly flawed.
For example, regarding North Norfolk, a 58% leave voting seat, what proportion of Leave and Remain supporters respectively do you think will vote LD? If we said, say, 10% of Leave and 75% of Remain you would end up with a LD vote share of 37%. Yet your model has the LDs on 60% and Con on 34%. (Mine has Con and LD neck and neck.)
Another set of implausible extreme contrasts is that you have the LDs on 1% in both Barnsley seats yet on 64% in Bath.
Have Labour missed a trick not arranging for an unauthorised leak of their manifesto?
It seemed to work well for them last time.
At the risk of making prediction which won't age well, I suspect Labour's manifesto will be liberally sprinkled with goodies that will go down well and give them a boost.
The Tories will be a damp squib, I suspect. (Could be wishful thinking )
If promising trillions worth of free stuff doesn't give Labour a boost, they might as well just disband and go home!
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
I would have thought that a guard would be pretty handy in the event of an accident, particularly one in which the driver has been injured.
Then the question is whether the insurance of having a guard in that circumstance is worth the expense of paying for a guard for all the times when it isn't necessary. Can't answer that question in terms of the numbers, but I can see the point of them.
Handy? How so?
They would know when it was safe to evacuate the train for starters.
What do we call “council” houses in local authority areas where they no longer exist?
Social housing.
My point is that Labour pledge to build 100,000 “council” houses. But it doesn’t sound like an effective delivery model if it is dependent on directing cash in different ways depending on the situation in different local authority areas. It’s a slogan without much thought of how it will be implemented. There are neighbouring council areas which have large housing departments right next to others than have almost none.
I think you're trying to say it's an inefficient marketplace. I'd say, quite.
@alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The arithmetic says Tory hold in Finchley and Lab hold in Hampstead. But these are both good examples of local factors that the model doesn't know. You need to apply your own local knowledge to the base case.
@Andy_JS Thanks for pointing out the Yeovil "anomoly". This is an example were the multiplicative model is too fiercely supportive of a high previous share. I've brought the multiplicative weight back to 25% which I'm more comfortable with for reasons that I can explain (but a bit technical) and Yeovil is a Tory retain.
I appreciate the effort that goes into constituency modelling but I am afraid to say that looking at some extreme results in your model I think the methodology must be badly flawed.
For example, regarding North Norfolk, a 58% leave voting seat, what proportion of Leave and Remain supporters respectively do you think will vote LD? If we said, say, 10% of Leave and 75% of Remain you would end up with a LD vote share of 37%. Yet your model has the LDs on 60% and Con on 34%. (Mine has Con and LD neck and neck.)
Another set of implausible extreme contrasts is that you have the LDs on 1% in both Barnsley seats yet on 64% in Bath.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
From my perspective it's provide the facilities that make the guards unnecessary then talk about removing the guards. Not the other way round.
You know as well as I do that once guards are in place everywhere there’s no way they’ll be gotten rid of. Unions. Then the guards will strike over some stupid issue and the trains won’t run when they could have done before.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
Haven't there been guards on trains for more than a century (since the beginning?), and the strikes are about removing them?
And before that they used to sit at the back with a rifle.
It’s a fact not appreciated by the London centric political class that there are areas of the country where social rents are actually higher than market rents.
Then they ain't social rents, are they?
Yes they are. “Social rent” has a specific meaning - basically based on a formula rigidly linked to house prices and other localised factors in 1999, uplifted subsequently by inflation. Similarly “affordable rent” has a meaning (based around 80% of the market rate). In London the situation is clearly SR < AR < MR. It’s not the same everywhere.
@alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The arithmetic says Tory hold in Finchley and Lab hold in Hampstead. But these are both good examples of local factors that the model doesn't know. You need to apply your own local knowledge to the base case.
@Andy_JS Thanks for pointing out the Yeovil "anomoly". This is an example were the multiplicative model is too fiercely supportive of a high previous share. I've brought the multiplicative weight back to 25% which I'm more comfortable with for reasons that I can explain (but a bit technical) and Yeovil is a Tory retain.
I appreciate the effort that goes into constituency modelling but I am afraid to say that looking at some extreme results in your model I think the methodology must be badly flawed.
For example, regarding North Norfolk, a 58% leave voting seat, what proportion of Leave and Remain supporters respectively do you think will vote LD? If we said, say, 10% of Leave and 75% of Remain you would end up with a LD vote share of 37%. Yet your model has the LDs on 60% and Con on 34%. (Mine has Con and LD neck and neck.)
Another set of implausible extreme contrasts is that you have the LDs on 1% in both Barnsley seats yet on 64% in Bath.
What has been interesting is the direction of travel that has been shown in Barnesian's model. a couple of weeks ago it was showing the Tories 10 or so seats short of a majority (if I remember rightly) but slowly that has crept over to a small Tory majority.
@alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The arithmetic says Tory hold in Finchley and Lab hold in Hampstead. But these are both good examples of local factors that the model doesn't know. You need to apply your own local knowledge to the base case.
@Andy_JS Thanks for pointing out the Yeovil "anomoly". This is an example were the multiplicative model is too fiercely supportive of a high previous share. I've brought the multiplicative weight back to 25% which I'm more comfortable with for reasons that I can explain (but a bit technical) and Yeovil is a Tory retain.
I appreciate the effort that goes into constituency modelling but I am afraid to say that looking at some extreme results in your model I think the methodology must be badly flawed.
For example, regarding North Norfolk, a 58% leave voting seat, what proportion of Leave and Remain supporters respectively do you think will vote LD? If we said, say, 10% of Leave and 75% of Remain you would end up with a LD vote share of 37%. Yet your model has the LDs on 60% and Con on 34%. (Mine has Con and LD neck and neck.)
Another set of implausible extreme contrasts is that you have the LDs on 1% in both Barnsley seats yet on 64% in Bath.
What has been interesting is the direction of travel that has been shown in Barnesian's model. a couple of weeks ago it was showing the Tories 10 or so seats short of a majority (if I remember rightly) but slowly that has crept over to a small Tory majority.
He's acknowledged Wales was a problem. The other regional differentials are still there. I expect the Midlands to be seriously out of whack in his model too.
What do we call “council” houses in local authority areas where they no longer exist?
Social housing.
My point is that Labour pledge to build 100,000 “council” houses. But it doesn’t sound like an effective delivery model if it is dependent on directing cash in different ways depending on the situation in different local authority areas. It’s a slogan without much thought of how it will be implemented. There are neighbouring council areas which have large housing departments right next to others than have almost none.
I think you're trying to say it's an inefficient marketplace. I'd say, quite.
Not really. It’s just that some councils retained housing functions in house, others set up arms length management companies, others effectively transferred their stock wholesale to Housing associations. And in many areas building large scale new social housing simply isn’t viable without massive subsidy. Housing Providers still need to watch their balance sheets, or inevitably the standard of housing being delivered will deteriorate massively. Especially in London where the need is greatest.
Even the Mayor recognises that. Ironically he often has more leverage over developers in the Private sector trying to make money from their mainly market housing schemes, than over social housing providers for whom it is their raisin d’etre!
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
Try using one with a wheelchair.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
The disabled are trodden on in this society, it's an utter disgrace.
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
I don't know that I would go so far. There's plenty to be proud of about this country's support for disabled people.
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
Well this is where I agree with you. They surely can.
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
I would have thought that a guard would be pretty handy in the event of an accident, particularly one in which the driver has been injured.
Then the question is whether the insurance of having a guard in that circumstance is worth the expense of paying for a guard for all the times when it isn't necessary. Can't answer that question in terms of the numbers, but I can see the point of them.
Handy? How so?
They would know when it was safe to evacuate the train for starters.
Why would you evacuate the train if the driver was sick? Oh, I get it. He (or she) could be contagious.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
As I mention to the point of tedium, I commute long-distance by train twice a week, involving multiple changes. Last Friday a violent drunken/drugged man in his 20's started picking fights and was calmed by a fiftysomething guard. Guards are bloody essential. They help the disabled on/off, help the sick, pacify the drunks, make carriages safer for people, can handle emergencies, sell tickets, and can help recalculate journeys when delayed . I will have no truck with this "guards are optional" frippery.
"How accessible are our new Azuma trains? Our new Azuma trains are as accessible as our current fleet" Great!
That does sound rather daft. I wasn't paying particular attention because I wasn't travelling with someone who needed them, but I'm sure that the new train I used last time I travelled between Cambridge and Norwich had its own ramps which extended automatically across the little gap between the train and the platform. One would've thought that, in 2019, this would neither be an avant garde concept nor one that was particularly challenging to engineer, but apparently so...
Paging Sunil - he'll probably know!
I have never come across a train with automatic ramps but I do hope they exist somewhere. I find it genuinely surprising given the progess mad in other areas (e.g. buses) that they haven't arrived on trains (maybe the presence of guards is a disincentive?).
On the continent they have step-free access to trains on some trains in France and the Netherlands.
I haven't been on the Cambridge to Norwich since 2016, so not seen the new trains yet!
Here in London, the S stock on the District/Circle/Hammersmith & City/Metropolitan lines have doors that line up perfectly with most platforms.
The billions should always be put in numbers not letters. More impact.
Not sure that's true.
I was shocked recently when someone I know who is very clever, graduate, professional career etc. asked me how many million there are in a billion. I think many people see £million, £billion, £trillion as all the same - a lot.
1,000,000 - 1,000,000,000 - 1,000,000.000,000 - it's my point.
Can we have a whip round to buy her a yacht to get there She can pay her own air fare to get back. Sorry just noticed "embassies" so substitute bike and taxi.
It’s a fact not appreciated by the London centric political class that there are areas of the country where social rents are actually higher than market rents.
Then they ain't social rents, are they?
Yes they are. “Social rent” has a specific meaning - basically based on a formula rigidly linked to house prices and other localised factors in 1999, uplifted subsequently by inflation. Similarly “affordable rent” has a meaning (based around 80% of the market rate). In London the situation is clearly SR < AR < MR. It’s not the same everywhere.
Do Labour realise that council houses are not aspirational ?
And that few home owners want more council houses being built anywhere near where they live.
Fact Check:
Each year 1964-70 more than 150k council houses were built.
Council housing had a very different connotation in the 60s. Back then it was genuinely aspirational. It was also often seen as a privilege, and once achieved not something you threw away lightly. It is ironic that recent debates have often centred around taking away secure tenancies for life - what few realise is that these are relatively recent - introduced by Thatcher of all people! (I think it was necessary to justify RTB policies - easier to justify selling a property to somebody who has a right to live there for life anyway)
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
And if their season ticket goes up 5% to pay for those guards?
They’re pointless. I’ve used trains every working day for nearly 20 years and there’s never been a need for one.
As I mention to the point of tedium, I commute long-distance by train twice a week, involving multiple changes. Last Friday a violent drunken/drugged man in his 20's started picking fights and was calmed by a fiftysomething guard. Guards are bloody essential. They help the disabled on/off, help the sick, pacify the drunks, make carriages safer for people, can handle emergencies, sell tickets, and can help recalculate journeys when delayed . I will have no truck with this "guards are optional" frippery.
I second this. Trains late at night in some areas can be intimidating if a guard is not around. Also, on my line they must make a heap of extra revenue from charging people who otherwise would not pay for a ticket as there are no barriers at each end of their journey.
Against the original prevailing wisdom the Tories promises on spending are actually possibly the perfect strategy against Corbyn. It makes it much harder to attack from the left, and if people think Johnson is splurging cash unaffordable, then they’re hardly going to go running to Corbyn. It is quite a simple message - “affordable” vs “unaffordable” spending and Labour’s weak position on Brexit means they can’t leverage to this as an explanation for why they can spend more.
Agreed. Corbyn by going too far has lost credibility just at the time when Johnson appears to be putting forward a more modest programme that gives the (somewhat misleading) impression of ending austerity. Corbyn's new spending plan is many times the magnitude of his 2017 programme - he is simultaneously sacrificing believeability that he can deliver whilst also frightening people as to what might happen to the country's finances if he tries. The public mood is receptive to an end to austerity, but not at any price.
I well remember the 1983 Labour campaign when the manifesto promised to throw the kitchen sink at public spending with the consequences that it just wasn't believed.
Comments
The inevitible comments about the Tube I'm sure will come but people know full well during busy times they have people on the platform
It was shite. May 79!was a total liberation. We are still living in that world. Corbyn wants to go back to 1975. I was there. It was crap, believe me,
I was just making a point about the need for guards on trains which do not have step free access or automatic ramps. (Why can't carriages have automatic ramps like most modern buses?)
The point being about guards is that it is merely a cynical employment programme to increase Union membership. Akin to reopening mines or banning driverless trains.
If there was compulsory retrofitting of trains to have ramps fine by me. But a person wandering up and down the train, and hiding away during rush hour as it’s standing only and they don’t want to face commuter wrath is pointless.
I see a new line being pushed now.
Technology won’t be used to solve the problem. That’s not Labours way. It’s Union stuffing. Nothing more.
Oh just 75,000,000,000 - small beer for Labour
https://www.lner.co.uk/the-east-coast-experience/azuma-trains/azuma-is-here/
"How accessible are our new Azuma trains? Our new Azuma trains are as accessible as our current fleet" Great!
They need to respond to this rubbish if they don't want the polls to narrow like last time
The drive will come from working class pensioners, not workers themselves, but Seventies redux. That 30 year old striking grave digger or power worker is now a seventy year old pensioner, so it is even often literally the same people driving economic decline.
Then the question is whether the insurance of having a guard in that circumstance is worth the expense of paying for a guard for all the times when it isn't necessary. Can't answer that question in terms of the numbers, but I can see the point of them.
I was shocked recently when someone I know who is very clever, graduate, professional career etc. asked me how many million there are in a billion. I think many people see £million, £billion, £trillion as all the same - a lot.
Leeds station handles 27,000* commuters per day. Maybe 40,000 people commute into Leeds on occasion, presumably from the surrounding areas of West Yorkshire and out toward York. For the whole of the county - maybe rail 60,000 commuters?
West Yorkshire has a workforce of 1.2 million, so maybe rail commuters into Leeds account for 5% of the workforce.
I'd suggest that at least a million workers in the county couldn't give a toss about the commuter trains which, incidentally, are a disgrace for overcrowding and unreliability. 30 year old Pacers are not the best,
* I accept that the 27,000 is the only actual fact in my post - others 'stats' are my best effort.
There are at least 7 labour held marginal seats in the county that the tories might expect to win. I honestly don't see the railways as a vote winner here.
It seemed to work well for them last time.
At the risk of making prediction which won't age well, I suspect Labour's manifesto will be liberally sprinkled with goodies that will go down well and give them a boost.
The Tories will be a damp squib, I suspect. (Could be wishful thinking
She smoked cannabis and enjoyed it , none of the normal I had it, didn’t inhale or it made me sick guff !
I thought she gave a good interview on Newsnight .
I have never come across a train with automatic ramps but I do hope they exist somewhere. I find it genuinely surprising given the progess mad in other areas (e.g. buses) that they haven't arrived on trains (maybe the presence of guards is a disincentive?).
On the continent they have step-free access to trains on some trains in France and the Netherlands.
For example, regarding North Norfolk, a 58% leave voting seat, what proportion of Leave and Remain supporters respectively do you think will vote LD? If we said, say, 10% of Leave and 75% of Remain you would end up with a LD vote share of 37%. Yet your model has the LDs on 60% and Con on 34%. (Mine has Con and LD neck and neck.)
Another set of implausible extreme contrasts is that you have the LDs on 1% in both Barnsley seats yet on 64% in Bath.
While the rest of the world has cut coal-based electricity over the past 18 months, China has added enough to power 31 million homes.
That's according to a study that says China is now in the process of building or reviving coal equivalent to the EU's entire generating capacity.
China is also financing around a quarter of all proposed coal plants outside its borders.
Researchers say the surge is a major threat to the Paris climate targets.
China's reliance on coal as a key step in developing the economy led to the fabled "one coal plant a week" building programme between 2006 and 2015.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50474824
Happy bantering.
And that few home owners want more council houses being built anywhere near where they live.
Even the Mayor recognises that. Ironically he often has more leverage over developers in the Private sector trying to make money from their mainly market housing schemes, than over social housing providers for whom it is their raisin d’etre!
Each year 1964-70 more than 150k council houses were built.
Here in London, the S stock on the District/Circle/Hammersmith & City/Metropolitan lines have doors that line up perfectly with most platforms.
https://wordlesstech.com/how-big-is-one-trillion-dollars/
I well remember the 1983 Labour campaign when the manifesto promised to throw the kitchen sink at public spending with the consequences that it just wasn't believed.