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There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/20/general-election-poll-shows-almost-one-five-labour-voters-considering/
The banned old Duke of York.
That tradition must have died out given how nebulous the knowledge of boundaries can be.
On topic, I think it is true the LDs have no good options in the event of a hung parliament, but maintaining a stance of supporting neither in any way looks worst to me - another GE happening without a brexit deal or a referendum agreement is unlikely to see a mass surge to the LDs I think.
The Tories didn't begin GE17 on 50% - the average of the six polls before the election was called was 42.8%. It rose during the first few weeks of the election, to sit in the 45-50% range, then fell back to the 40-45% range during the last three weeks.
They really go down that much though, it was more that Labour went up.
And indeed they are still just about, under where they were in 2017.
But crucially for me anyway, Johnson is a lot less popular than May was. Albeit Corbyn is a lot less popular too.
Tories winning over voters they haven't connected with since the glory days of Maggie...
Still, I think I'd class it as the sort of problem it's good to have. Rather Clegg than Farron I would have thought.
He is part of the *institution* of the Monarchy...
49% of 18-24 year olds will definitely vote. 79% of 65+.
Anyone know how that compares to 2017?
English Democrat candidate Amy Dalla Mura is standing in Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire, which Ms Soubry has represented since 2010.
Westminster Magistrates' Court heard the defendant repeatedly targeted the Independent Group for Change candidate and called her a traitor on television.
She will be sentenced on 16 December.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-50494287
I still think the Tories are nailed on for a majority. I just think there will be quite a few close battles where a combination of tactical voting, a good ground campaign and a bit of last-minute reverting to type might claw back 10-20 seats that the national calculus seems to predict. I think we're in 20-30 Tory majority territory.
If the Tories are miles ahead, will people bother to vote?
I think the Labour/Lib Dem vote is in general more tactical and more willing to vote, as we saw in 2017.
I still think it will be a lot closer than people think, so 10-20 seems feasible. Although for now I stick with a Hung Parliament as being very possible.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election
Looks like c. 58% of 18-24 and c. 80% of 65+ voted in 2017
Edit: That's the actual vote, not how people intended to vote, so not really comparing like with like.
They need to narrow the tories advantage with the grey vote somewhat.
Graph of probability of voting versus age near the beginning of the post.
Comparing with this 2017 survey data, a 49% figure could suggest an increase in youth turnout this time around, though of course some of the respondents might actually find better things to do with their time on the big day. We shall see.
I know what the atmosphere was like. And it wasn't as you describe.
I think there are a lot of shy Labourites as well, they just need a reason to come home.
I wouldn't say it was likely, but they haven't lost yet.
So I guess we should expect plenty of "if this man is elected, will the last one out switch out the lights"-style headlines in the last few days to scare the complacent faithful...
Although they've already compared Corbyn to Hitler *and* Stalin, so difficult to know where to go next. Idi Amin? Vlad Dracul?
Interesting with the coming SWR strike.
My perception is that most people hate the striking but probably agree with having a guard on the train. Any polls done on it?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197268701474635781?s=20
If that NHS figure continues to go up, Labour is in with a real chance of pulling some undecidids back.
Unlike 2017 where it was just a hunch that Labour would cause a Hung Parliament (and I was right, I got 5/1), I can very easily see how it happens this time.
At a roughly similar time in the campaign to now the Comres poll had 58% 18-24 , 83% of 65+.
Has she been binge-watching Borgen?
I've also known a smaller number of people who legitimately work 20 hours then work cash in hand more hours so they don't lose their benefits or pay taxes.
Not everyone is the same. The fraud cases are a small proportion but the people who are put off working more they could work as it is "not worth it" are much, much higher.
That is why IMO merging Income Tax and NICs is a good start but not enough IMO. Income Tax, NICs and Universal Credit should all be merged and nobody should be taxed at a high percentage. If you're losing 65% of every pound you earn due to lost Universal Credit and 12p in every pound you earn due to NICs then your effective income tax is 77%.
We wouldn't tax higher earners at 77% so why do we tax the poor at that rate? No wonder people think working 20 hours is enough and no point working more! This NIC change is a step in the right direction.
Yup go to a key marginal and say this. Win them over
That youth vote needs to surge - and surge quickly.
I'm thinking it will, there's a lot on the line for young people this time around
In 2017 the graduates in our firm were all for Corbyn. Very much so.
Now nothing. More Green if anything at all. Corbyns lost his shine. Yesterday’s news.
But irrespective of that, in terms of ratings it is true Johnson is a lot lower than she was. But Corbyn is lower still.
Although interestingly the "who would you prefer" seem to be a lot closer together, which really is the key in this election, I think
On the other hand, pensioners are old enough to remember when Old Labour was last in power. All power cuts, piles of rotting rubbish in the streets, unburied corpses, rampant inflation and going cap-in-hand to the Gnomes of Zurich.
If, as we are consistently told, a great reservoir of Scottish voters will never forgive the Tories for Maggie, it follows that there probably exists another great reservoir of older voters who have neither forgiven nor forgotten the Winter of Discontent.
Bribery may not be enough.
This I would support (even though it would make me worse off since I am retired).
There are exactly 3 weeks to go to the election. If Labour's manifesto doesn't set the world on fire, or worse, contains some dementia-tax-level raids on the middle class...
Con/Lab/LD
332/219/30
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
@alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead.
The arithmetic says Tory hold in Finchley and Lab hold in Hampstead. But these are both good examples of local factors that the model doesn't know. You need to apply your own local knowledge to the base case.
@Andy_JS Thanks for pointing out the Yeovil "anomoly". This is an example were the multiplicative model is too fiercely supportive of a high previous share. I've brought the multiplicative weight back to 25% which I'm more comfortable with for reasons that I can explain (but a bit technical) and Yeovil is a Tory retain.
46,48,44,45,50,44,48,48,40,42,46,49,48,49.
I concede they weren't on 50% in every poll but I think my general points stands, in that it would have been difficult for any party to improve on these sorts of ratings at the start of a campaign.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#2017
Mike Pence Vs Mayor Pete
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/our-enforcement-work/investigations/investigation-momentum
"Unsettled weather is expected for much of the period with weather systems bringing bouts of rain and strong winds across the UK from the southwest, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. The bulk of the rain seems more likely in western parts of the UK with longer drier spells likely across the east. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly over high ground."
We'll see what the polls do.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heath_ministry
First of all many Tory voters are actually voting positively for something. Brexit supporters will have realised, belatedly, that May was right in 2017. Delivering Brexit requires a big majority and they will be strongly motivated to deliver it. Even those who are voting for other, more “negative” reasons (basically anti Corbyn/McDonnell) will be powerfully motivated. They will want to kill off Corbynism absolutely. In fact, ironically, the motivation may even be stronger if they dislike Johnson. They will hope for a return to sanity in the Labour Party to give them alternatives in future.
On the other side there may be “tribal” Labour/anti Tory supporters who detest Corbyn. They may never vote Tory, but will be much less likely to turn out to vote for him if he is going to lose anyway. If he is going to lose they will also want him to lose badly.
And finally you have “motivated” remainers, whose best realistic outcome is not to prevent Brexit, or at least not yet. At best they can aspire to more delay. There is a decent argument that if Brexit can’t be stopped, then it is better that it happens as soon as possible.
Basically all the above would plausibly point towards motivation to vote (on top of traditional demographic advantages) heavily favouriing the Tories,
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1197223932279037957?s=20
Once you get beyond about 25 Labour support starts to steadily decline. Past about 45 and it drops off a cliff. Past about 65 and it lands at the bottom of the cliff in a big, wet, bloody splat of gore and bone fragments.
Maggie didn’t appear out of thin air, she was a reaction to the total dross that came before her.
I used to do a weekly commute to London from Dorset before I retired. By the time I got home Gillingham station would be unmanned, so my only option to get off was the guard to get the ramp out. Going up to London I often needed the guard to get on the train. And at Waterloo it was usually much quicker for the guard to get the ramp than for me to wait for tha station staff.
https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-poll-teachers-back-labour-education
Now, that might just be a unique effect in Totnes. But I'm thinking that is unlikely...