South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
Yes, like Chelmsford, there were LibDems there elected to the council by accident. Which very rarely happens.
Indeed, no-one has mentioned Chelmsford as an outside LibDem prospect? It saw one of the biggest swings to the Libs in the country in the locals.
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
Yes, like Chelmsford, there were LibDems there elected to the council by accident. Which very rarely happens.
Indeed, no-one has mentioned Chelmsford as an outside LibDem prospect? It saw one of the biggest swings to the Libs in the country in the locals.
Vicky Ford is now getting (being got????) quite a lot or airtime on local TV. More than, for example, Will Quince.
I'm in Finchley & Golders Green the Lib Dems are pushing Luciana with two leaflets a week... a survey and post card just today... however all being done through Royal Mail as there isn't much of a historical base to work from and few local activists. A couple of leaflets from the Conservatives as well and they have canvassed. However one of those was calling for a parking zone on the basis of the people parking and going to a station that isn't nearby or the nearest station. Parking is an issue but it's because of three to four cars per household rather than commuters. Promising to tax them extra probably isn't a vote winner. Brexit party have held a series of street stalls but no activity from Labour or Greens so far.
Had a survey from the Tories (hand delivered) in Westminster North plus a flurry of emails from the local council updating me on their good work.
Nothing from the other parties so far, but then I do live in a historically Jewish part of Westminster so maybe Labour are lying low?
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
This appeal is followed by a succession of posts by @mysticrose extolling the virtues, intellect, cohesion and vitality of the near perfect Labour campaign and ridicule towards the lacklustre Tory effort.
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
Lacking the awareness to know the Tory party don't launch their campaign until later this week is not a relevant factor to the analysis that sees them as lacklustre loosers.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.
It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs )
There’s been talk in the past about the speaker bring appointed MP for the Palace of Westminster but no one ever gets around to it. Haven’t heard the deputies mentioned but assume that would just follow automatically
There is nothing socialist about a public health insurance scheme or an effective anti-monopoly regime. When people say they like their health plan, they are they saying they like the hospitals and doctors they access. They will still get that under Medicare 4 all. And most people think the ultrarich giving back 6 cents on every dollar after the first fifty million is pretty reasonable.
So IIUC Medicare tends to pay hospitals and doctors far less than conventional insurance. This is a good thing, but that money that isn't going to get paid has to stop going to somebody; Now I suppose it *might* take the form of lower-range Benzes for doctors and administrators, while making no difference to who is providing the service, or what service is available. But generally if you make a big cut in how much money something gets, some of the people providing the something leave the field, others reduce quality, and some of the providers close down.
That doesn't mean it isn't a good change, since the current US system seems to be exceedingly broken, but if you're a voter who's basically happy with what you've got you wouldn't have to be paranoid to worry that you're going to lose it. And if your doctor or hospital stands to lose a pile of money, don't think they won't communicate to their patients (ie the voters) that it's going to affect their care.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
This appeal is followed by a succession of posts by @mysticrose extolling the virtues, intellect, cohesion and vitality of the near perfect Labour campaign and ridicule towards the lacklustre Tory effort.
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
Lacking the awareness to know the Tory party don't launch their campaign until later this week is not a relevant factor to the analysis that sees them as lacklustre loosers.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
There was a poster on here a few yrs back, I think he told us that Labour's campain was so secret and so wonderful, that Labour would win hands down.. I cannot remember his/her name.. Anyone got any suggestions?
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
This appeal is followed by a succession of posts by @mysticrose extolling the virtues, intellect, cohesion and vitality of the near perfect Labour campaign and ridicule towards the lacklustre Tory effort.
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
Hang on, I'm not suggesting Labour are going to 'win.' I'm simply pointing out that they have been making the running, that the Conservative campaign has begun in a lacklustre manner reminiscent of 2017 and that they appear bereft of ideas.
Labour have hit the ground running and the opinion polls seem to be pointing to an uplift for them.
Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Wales poll shows
Labour 18 (-10) Conservatives 17 (+9) Plaid 4 Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
The poll I was referring to tells a different story re the Welsh poll.
Labour: 29 (+4) Conservatives: 28 (-1) Brexit Party: 15 (+1) Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4) Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change) Greens: 3 (-1) Others: 1 (no change)
Posted with no comment
I believe that’s the same poll - BigG is seats and yours vote share
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
The Class 442 saga rumbles on. If the issue with the track circuit at Earlsfield isn’t resolved and the 442s aren’t available for the December timetable change (15 December), then they really will be in trouble.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
South Western are the third worst rail franchise with "South" in their name.
I'm in Finchley & Golders Green the Lib Dems are pushing Luciana with two leaflets a week... a survey and post card just today... however all being done through Royal Mail as there isn't much of a historical base to work from and few local activists. A couple of leaflets from the Conservatives as well and they have canvassed. However one of those was calling for a parking zone on the basis of the people parking and going to a station that isn't nearby or the nearest station. Parking is an issue but it's because of three to four cars per household rather than commuters. Promising to tax them extra probably isn't a vote winner. Brexit party have held a series of street stalls but no activity from Labour or Greens so far.
Had a survey from the Tories (hand delivered) in Westminster North plus a flurry of emails from the local council updating me on their good work.
Nothing from the other parties so far, but then I do live in a historically Jewish part of Westminster so maybe Labour are lying low?
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
The Class 442 saga rumbles on. If the issue with the track circuit at Earlsfield isn’t resolved and the 442s aren’t available for the December timetable change (15 December), then they really will be in trouble.
The thing that infuriates passengers the most is that it’s “no-one’s fault” and, even when it is, those responsible for the failures aren’t present - so it’s the guards who take the brunt of it.
NR are responsible for the infrastructure and engineering works, which they contract out. They have regular failures and overruns that affect the train service - NR’s fault. But, the Operator is also responsible for managing the best service they can and good service recovery.
At the moment they just blame NR, the trains or something else and, even when it is their fault, the Guard refers to his or her bosses in the third person “they” because they haven’t rostered staff properly and it isn’t his fault.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
Yes, like Chelmsford, there were LibDems there elected to the council by accident. Which very rarely happens.
Indeed, no-one has mentioned Chelmsford as an outside LibDem prospect? It saw one of the biggest swings to the Libs in the country in the locals.
Vicky Ford is now getting (being got????) quite a lot or airtime on local TV. More than, for example, Will Quince.
Wasn't there a local housing issue that LDs capitalised on for the Council - desire to give the Tories a bit of a kicking? Council has alternated LD and Tory for as long as I can remember. I grew up there, still have family local (one 'lucky' enough to share your MP, OKC) but don't know the local details well.
LDs used to be quite good seconds in the seat, until 2015 (different boundaries for part of that time). Labout second (distant) since 2015. I'd expect LD to come back to a stong second but would be a shock to me if they took it. Vicky Ford was a remainer but has voted with the government consistently, so shouldn't be hated by either remainers nor rational Brexiters.
I have received a letter from Boris asking for money. The small print says I have received it as member, ex member or because I have previously donated locally or nationally!!!!!!
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I have received a letter from Boris asking for money. The small print says I have received it as member, ex member or because I have previously donated locally or nationally!!!!!!
Never have I done this. Weird.
Have you ever donated money to Labour? After all, they are basically a front for the Tories these days...
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
Which is presumably why Corbyn, presented with an open goal of the approximate dimensions of the Pacific on this issue, has been unable to take advantage of it.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
Take a look at who owns the ROSCOs.
Then, suddenly, it all makes sense. Not in a good way, but it makes sense.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
Plenty of Fireworks displays tonight in Newcastle. There was a few over the weekend for kids but that’s fair enough.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
It was a big problem for ScotRail when the new trains were delayed as their trains were already leased to an operator down south. The alternative would have been for them to spend £££s on a much longer overlap period, but then they would have been criticised for wasting money if the trains had not been delayed so long.
It's arguably the worst part of the system, though with stiff competition.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
Guy Fawkes night is noteworthy only in that it reminds me that its my brother's birthday the following day......
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
The TfL concession model seems to be running reasonably well. Perhaps you'd need to do something different for intercity services though.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
The rolling stock on SWR can only be run on the other Southern Region, as was, franchises, and neither of them have taken any from SWR. In fact, SWR is returning to the Portsmouth line the old Class 442 “Plastic Pigs” (the best third-rail stock ever made IMO) that had gone to Southern to run on the Gatwick Express and had been returned to the rolling stock company.
And it just isn’t the case that the ROSCOs arbitrarily pull stock from a franchise because they get a better price elsewhere. The only case I can think of remotely like that was when the new stock for the London Overground’s Gospel Oak-Barking line was delayed but LOROL had already agreed to release the GOBlin’s existing stock elsewhere.
I doubt issues with the service on SWR will make much difference in seats like Surrey SW and Surrey Heath. It might be an issue in that Pompey seat as it’s close and the pledge to get rid of the 450s and the 3+2 seating has not been met.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
But, I did mention staff rostering - you said in your first post it’s highly likely that’s not SWR’s fault.
I’m afraid it is.
Also, you don’t seem to understand how stock leasing work. Such contracts are negotiated between the Operator and the RS company, typically for the period of the franchise, and cover the availability of a fleet with daily KPIs and availability metrics.
The immediate reason the services are often short-formed is because of a small defect in the unit (or poor maintenance) leads to them needing to take a 4-coach set out of service at the depot. It’s an issue because the franchisee (SWR) haven’t bothered to negotiate any reserve spare stock in their lease to cover the eventuality of a perturbed or degraded service.
I work in the railway industry so I do know a little bit about what I’m talking about.
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
The TfL concession model seems to be running reasonably well. Perhaps you'd need to do something different for intercity services though.
Hs2
More seriously, that could very easily be done as a franchise, as could freight, but dealing with the local operators for pathways instead of Network Rail.
It worked in the 1920s with a much larger and more complex network so it shouldn’t be impossible to do it today.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
Certainly still big where I am. Thr only reason it is spread over two weekends is because the 5th is midweek and people think it better to do these things at weekends. We gad our own bonfire party last weekend.
I doubt issues with the service on SWR will make much difference in seats like Surrey SW and Surrey Heath. It might be an issue in that Pompey seat as it’s close and the pledge to get rid of the 450s and the 3+2 seating has not been met.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
Halloween predates the existence of the US by rather a long time.
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Yes, because the right of free association, such as forming trade unions, remains protected by treaties such as the ECHR. But I’m sure that’s next in the sights of Boris and his chums.
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
Which is presumably why Corbyn, presented with an open goal of the approximate dimensions of the Pacific on this issue, has been unable to take advantage of it.
Re-Nationalisation is very popular (in the properly populist sense) and Corbyn is already banging that drum.
The trouble is that he’s widely disliked and distrusted.
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Yes, because the right of free association, such as forming trade unions, remains protected by treaties such as the ECHR. But I’m sure that’s next in the sights of Boris and his chums.
Indeed, but highly political Unions like the RMT strike regularly for spurious and political reasons and are a big reason why our ticket prices are so high.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
Plenty of Fireworks displays tonight in Newcastle. There was a few over the weekend for kids but that’s fair enough.
There used to be only one day for fireworks: today. Now there are three: today, Diwali and New Year.
Diwali and Guy Fawkes are very close, so with a degree of smearing around for weather and from weekdays to weekends, you might need to comfort your pets every day for a fortnight. Round here, Diwali is generally the larger of the two, though this year seemed a bit subdued, more like a normal November the fifth.
New Year is (depending where you are) bigger than both in that it sees large corporate or government displays.
But this year, again perhaps just round here, compared with previous years, it seems to be far harder to buy fireworks, as they seem to have disappeared from (or rather, not appeared in) the supermarkets, and nor have there been the usual pop-up firework shops. Whether that is due to local authority licensing or concern about terrorism or air pollution, who knows? (Well, probably lots of people.)
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
Which is presumably why Corbyn, presented with an open goal of the approximate dimensions of the Pacific on this issue, has been unable to take advantage of it.
Re-Nationalisation is very popular (in the properly populist sense) and Corbyn is already banging that drum.
The trouble is that he’s widely disliked and distrusted.
The point being that while he is indeed banging that drum even harder than he did the female population of Islington, the current scenario isn’t one he can usefully exploit to promote it.
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
The TfL concession model seems to be running reasonably well. Perhaps you'd need to do something different for intercity services though.
TFL works as historically it's been run as though it's a private organisation by highly competent managers such as Mike Brown and left free of political involvement.
That's now seriously at risk since the useless major Khan has interfered in its price and revenue decisions for his own narrow political ends. TFL's long term sustainability as a good service is now at risk.
It beggars belief to think how much disaster Labour would bring to nationalised industries.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I don't want to sound grumpy but which bit of lethally dangerous state-mandated celebration of sectarian act of torture is it that holds the quintessential appeal for you?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
Which is presumably why Corbyn, presented with an open goal of the approximate dimensions of the Pacific on this issue, has been unable to take advantage of it.
Re-Nationalisation is very popular (in the properly populist sense) and Corbyn is already banging that drum.
The trouble is that he’s widely disliked and distrusted.
The point being that while he is indeed banging that drum even harder than he did the female population of Islington, the current scenario isn’t one he can usefully exploit to promote it.
The best solution would probably be privately run vertically-integrated long-term (20-30+ year) regional franchises, completely free from Union strangleholds, with upgraded infrastructure with remote condition monitoring of assets and operated as a digital railway.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
The TfL concession model seems to be running reasonably well. Perhaps you'd need to do something different for intercity services though.
TFL works as historically it's been run as though it's a private organisation by highly competent managers such as Mike Brown and left free of political involvement.
That's now seriously at risk since the useless major Khan has interfered in its price and revenue decisions for his own narrow political ends. TFL's long term sustainability as a good service is now at risk.
It beggars belief to think how much disaster Labour would bring to nationalised industries.
Unless Chris Grayling crosses the floor, I'm prepared to be underwhelmed.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy,
The Labour Brexit policy is in fact looking really rather good right now.
'The Labour leader will outline his plans for renegotiating a new deal based on a customs union with the European Union - and a referendum offering the option to vote for that agreement or Remain - in a major speech on Tuesday.'
A customs union deal vs Remain to a second referendum.
Pretty darned cool approach. Took them an aeon to reach it, but it's good.
In my view it's nonsense.
Undermined by a couple of simple questions:
Will you campaign for your own deal in a second referendum? Will your cabinet? Why would Europe negotiate any kind of deal with you if you won't support it in a referendum?
It's ridiculous. It's one thing to threaten to walk away if you don't get a deal, quite another to threaten it if you do get a deal.
He hasn't the courage to come out for Leave or Remain. The voters know it. It's part of his toxicity.
Big mistake by Labour and the Lib Dems allowing Johnson to get his Brexit deal immediately before calling an election. It's heavily watered down both their respective USPs. They need some new ones and they need some knocking into shape quickly.
I have received a letter from Boris asking for money. The small print says I have received it as member, ex member or because I have previously donated locally or nationally!!!!!!
Never have I done this. Weird.
And this data breach is from the very people who brought the bureaucratic lunacy of GDPR for small organisations and one man businesses who try to do a bit of good in the world.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy,
The Labour Brexit policy is in fact looking really rather good right now.
'The Labour leader will outline his plans for renegotiating a new deal based on a customs union with the European Union - and a referendum offering the option to vote for that agreement or Remain - in a major speech on Tuesday.'
A customs union deal vs Remain to a second referendum.
Pretty darned cool approach. Took them an aeon to reach it, but it's good.
In my view it's nonsense.
Undermined by a couple of simple questions:
Will you campaign for your own deal in a second referendum? Will your cabinet? Why would Europe negotiate any kind of deal with you if you won't support it in a referendum?
It's ridiculous. It's one thing to threaten to walk away if you don't get a deal, quite another to threaten it if you do get a deal.
He hasn't the courage to come out for Leave or Remain. The voters know it. It's part of his toxicity.
The referendum and renegotiation is just cover for Remain. I don’t see any reason why the EU won’t support that as its ultimately what they want.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy,
The Labour Brexit policy is in fact looking really rather good right now.
'The Labour leader will outline his plans for renegotiating a new deal based on a customs union with the European Union - and a referendum offering the option to vote for that agreement or Remain - in a major speech on Tuesday.'
A customs union deal vs Remain to a second referendum.
Pretty darned cool approach. Took them an aeon to reach it, but it's good.
In my view it's nonsense.
Undermined by a couple of simple questions:
Will you campaign for your own deal in a second referendum? Will your cabinet? Why would Europe negotiate any kind of deal with you if you won't support it in a referendum?
It's ridiculous. It's one thing to threaten to walk away if you don't get a deal, quite another to threaten it if you do get a deal.
He hasn't the courage to come out for Leave or Remain. The voters know it. It's part of his toxicity.
It used to be the Conservative position: negotiate a deal and only then decide whether to support or oppose it in a referendum.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
This appeal is followed by a succession of posts by @mysticrose extolling the virtues, intellect, cohesion and vitality of the near perfect Labour campaign and ridicule towards the lacklustre Tory effort.
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
Lacking the awareness to know the Tory party don't launch their campaign until later this week is not a relevant factor to the analysis that sees them as lacklustre loosers.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
There was a poster on here a few yrs back, I think he told us that Labour's campain was so secret and so wonderful, that Labour would win hands down.. I cannot remember his/her name.. Anyone got any suggestions?
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
This appeal is followed by a succession of posts by @mysticrose extolling the virtues, intellect, cohesion and vitality of the near perfect Labour campaign and ridicule towards the lacklustre Tory effort.
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
Lacking the awareness to know the Tory party don't launch their campaign until later this week is not a relevant factor to the analysis that sees them as lacklustre loosers.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
There was a poster on here a few yrs back, I think he told us that Labour's campain was so secret and so wonderful, that Labour would win hands down.. I cannot remember his/her name.. Anyone got any suggestions?
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
The Class 442 saga rumbles on. If the issue with the track circuit at Earlsfield isn’t resolved and the 442s aren’t available for the December timetable change (15 December), then they really will be in trouble.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I don't want to sound grumpy but which bit of lethally dangerous state-mandated celebration of sectarian act of torture is it that holds the quintessential appeal for you?
Is it the prevention of a terrorist act that would have wiped out the entire ruling class and flattened 200 acres of Central London?
Johnson's character is up for grabs for the Lib Dems and massive public spending for Labour. A strange bun fight for Johnson to get involved in. He must know that however much he offers to spend Corbyn will always outdo him. It also deflects from Brexit.
I'm in Finchley & Golders Green the Lib Dems are pushing Luciana with two leaflets a week... a survey and post card just today... however all being done through Royal Mail as there isn't much of a historical base to work from and few local activists. A couple of leaflets from the Conservatives as well and they have canvassed. However one of those was calling for a parking zone on the basis of the people parking and going to a station that isn't nearby or the nearest station. Parking is an issue but it's because of three to four cars per household rather than commuters. Promising to tax them extra probably isn't a vote winner. Brexit party have held a series of street stalls but no activity from Labour or Greens so far.
Had a survey from the Tories (hand delivered) in Westminster North plus a flurry of emails from the local council updating me on their good work.
Nothing from the other parties so far, but then I do live in a historically Jewish part of Westminster so maybe Labour are lying low?
Westminster North is safe Labour right?
Less than 15k majority 😂
Interestingly on wiki they don’t have Karen listed as the Labour candidate?
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
It’s a financing tool, like an OpCo/PropCo structure. I prefer common ownership though
I have received a letter from Boris asking for money. The small print says I have received it as member, ex member or because I have previously donated locally or nationally!!!!!!
Never have I done this. Weird.
Have you ever donated money to Labour? After all, they are basically a front for the Tories these days...
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I don't want to sound grumpy but which bit of lethally dangerous state-mandated celebration of sectarian act of torture is it that holds the quintessential appeal for you?
Is it the prevention of a terrorist act that would have wiped out the entire ruling class and flattened 200 acres of Central London?
It's a bit too torture-specific for that to be a runner. And do you celebrate, say, the eradication of smallpox or the end of the slave trade with the same enthusiasm, or at all?
Swinson needs to stop moaning about some apparent sexist motive behind the debate drama and should just stick to the line that Remainers aren’t going to have their side put.
Off topic, South Western Railway (a F*r*t Gr*up franchise) is close to breaking point.
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
Your last point is true but it's highly likely your other comments are actually not South Western's fault - the leaser of the trains may have got a better offer elsewhere and just shifted the stock to a higher payer or taken it for repairs.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
No, I’m afraid it is true. SWR are absolutely responsible for their own staff management and stock rostering.
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
I never mentioned staff rostering and that doesn't impact the length of the train. Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
Take a look at who owns the ROSCOs.
Then, suddenly, it all makes sense. Not in a good way, but it makes sense.
Infrastructure investors managing pension funds? They are able to offer the lowest cost of capital due to the long duration of the cash flows
I bet they would still take independence over Brexit any day. I also doubt she would be havering, a dead sheep could outhink Burley the worst presenter on TV.
I doubt issues with the service on SWR will make much difference in seats like Surrey SW and Surrey Heath. It might be an issue in that Pompey seat as it’s close and the pledge to get rid of the 450s and the 3+2 seating has not been met.
You’ll know better than most but what’s to stop us having just one privatised TOC in the UK?
As a major user of trains one of my major issues is when changing TOCs on a multi leg journey when one leg has been delayed/cancelled.
Just heard Swinson’s voice on LBC. I regret to say it came across as childishly high-pitched.
Why didn’t the LDs do some voice coaching?
To be honest that mirrors my wife's comments
Yet they are all running away from debating her. The way you describe it Jo under pressure in a debate is the last thing libdems need in order to keep their votes.
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I don't want to sound grumpy but which bit of lethally dangerous state-mandated celebration of sectarian act of torture is it that holds the quintessential appeal for you?
Is it the prevention of a terrorist act that would have wiped out the entire ruling class and flattened 200 acres of Central London?
It's a bit too torture-specific for that to be a runner. And do you celebrate, say, the eradication of smallpox or the end of the slave trade with the same enthusiasm, or at all?
What does torture have to do with it? The gunpowder plot was discovered because one of the plotters tipped off Lord Monteagle that he should not attend the state opening of parliament, who passed on the warning to the government, who searched parliament and found the explosives and Fawkes.
That is the bit that is celebrated.
While it is true Fawkes was later tortured, that was to discover his co-conspirators. It came after the plot was frustrated.
Big mistake by Labour and the Lib Dems allowing Johnson to get his Brexit deal immediately before calling an election. It's heavily watered down both their respective USPs. They need some new ones and they need some knocking into shape quickly.
Apart from the Labour 19, both parties voted against.
But, I did mention staff rostering - you said in your first post it’s highly likely that’s not SWR’s fault.
I’m afraid it is.
Also, you don’t seem to understand how stock leasing work. Such contracts are negotiated between the Operator and the RS company, typically for the period of the franchise, and cover the availability of a fleet with daily KPIs and availability metrics.
The immediate reason the services are often short-formed is because of a small defect in the unit (or poor maintenance) leads to them needing to take a 4-coach set out of service at the depot. It’s an issue because the franchisee (SWR) haven’t bothered to negotiate any reserve spare stock in their lease to cover the eventuality of a perturbed or degraded service.
I work in the railway industry so I do know a little bit about what I’m talking about.
A recent contrary case was with an incident (near Stirling I think) where a man turned up to a station with a knife threatening to hurt himself, and consequently delaying the Inverness to King's Cross service by about three hours.
Somehow LNER were able to find a spare train to put on a new Edinburgh to King's Cross service that left Edinburgh not much later than the scheduled Inverness to King's Cross service. This might be because they have a few extra HST sets spare as they make the transition to the new Azuma trains, but I think they ran the original Inverness train down to King's Cross, so they would have needed to find some extra train crew too.
And it just isn’t the case that the ROSCOs arbitrarily pull stock from a franchise because they get a better price elsewhere. The only case I can think of remotely like that was when the new stock for the London Overground’s Gospel Oak-Barking line was delayed but LOROL had already agreed to release the GOBlin’s existing stock elsewhere.
That happens a lot - pretty much every time a new train is introduced, but delayed, unless the replaced trains are not being used subsequently anywhere else on the network (eg with the Pacers).
It’s detractors will have to attack it harder than that surely.
A nice pandoras box opened by Johnson. Corbyn seems to be laying the groundwork rather well. I was told yesterdy that free child care was going down very well on facebook!
It seems to be quite difficult for some Labour supporters on Twitter to do the maths and workout the tory share is still rising even if it's only by a small amount.
I bet they would still take independence over Brexit any day. I also doubt she would be havering, a dead sheep could outhink Burley the worst presenter on TV.
are you comparing the Sainted Nicola to a dead sheep then?. Seems like it...
Just a thought. Once upon a time tonight would have been Guy Fawkes night with fireworks going off all over the place. Now the ‘event’ has a) been hi-jacked by American style Halloween and b) spread out over at least two weekends. Sad, really.
I don't want to sound grumpy but which bit of lethally dangerous state-mandated celebration of sectarian act of torture is it that holds the quintessential appeal for you?
Is it the prevention of a terrorist act that would have wiped out the entire ruling class and flattened 200 acres of Central London?
It's a bit too torture-specific for that to be a runner. And do you celebrate, say, the eradication of smallpox or the end of the slave trade with the same enthusiasm, or at all?
What does torture have to do with it? The gunpowder plot was discovered because one of the plotters tipped off Lord Monteagle that he should not attend the state opening of parliament, who passed on the warning to the government, who searched parliament and found the explosives and Fawkes.
That is the bit that is celebrated.
While it is true Fawkes was later tortured, that was to discover his co-conspirators. It came after the plot was frustrated.
I'm in Finchley & Golders Green the Lib Dems are pushing Luciana with two leaflets a week... a survey and post card just today... however all being done through Royal Mail as there isn't much of a historical base to work from and few local activists. A couple of leaflets from the Conservatives as well and they have canvassed. However one of those was calling for a parking zone on the basis of the people parking and going to a station that isn't nearby or the nearest station. Parking is an issue but it's because of three to four cars per household rather than commuters. Promising to tax them extra probably isn't a vote winner. Brexit party have held a series of street stalls but no activity from Labour or Greens so far.
Had a survey from the Tories (hand delivered) in Westminster North plus a flurry of emails from the local council updating me on their good work.
Nothing from the other parties so far, but then I do live in a historically Jewish part of Westminster so maybe Labour are lying low?
Westminster North is safe Labour right?
Less than 15k majority 😂
Interestingly on wiki they don’t have Karen listed as the Labour candidate?
Westminster North is 151st on the Tory target list, the Tories would need to win more seats than Blair 1997 or Thatcher 1983 to take it. Not even Cameron won it in 2010 or 2015.
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
It would be a very good start if they did something about driver contracts, which currently stipulate that staff are entitled to claim leave whenever it suits them and there is no effective way of refusing.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
The trouble is the Unions have a chokehold on that.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
Which is presumably why Corbyn, presented with an open goal of the approximate dimensions of the Pacific on this issue, has been unable to take advantage of it.
Re-Nationalisation is very popular (in the properly populist sense) and Corbyn is already banging that drum.
The trouble is that he’s widely disliked and distrusted.
He can't be trusted to rid his party of antisemitism. Why would I trust him to run the railways?
Comments
A very early start today for the complete bollocks, Scott....
Indeed, no-one has mentioned Chelmsford as an outside LibDem prospect? It saw one of the biggest swings to the Libs in the country in the locals.
Nothing from the other parties so far, but then I do live in a historically Jewish part of Westminster so maybe Labour are lying low?
Following these incisive observations with many predictions of Labour success and glorious victory.
Lacking the awareness to know the Tory party don't launch their campaign until later this week is not a relevant factor to the analysis that sees them as lacklustre loosers.
These predictions may turn out to be true, but the premature triumphal posts are showing excessive certainty and confidence, dashed with a little hypocrisy towards @HYUFD.
That doesn't mean it isn't a good change, since the current US system seems to be exceedingly broken, but if you're a voter who's basically happy with what you've got you wouldn't have to be paranoid to worry that you're going to lose it. And if your doctor or hospital stands to lose a pile of money, don't think they won't communicate to their patients (ie the voters) that it's going to affect their care.
Labour have hit the ground running and the opinion polls seem to be pointing to an uplift for them.
Otherwise ... quite
I don't know if, beyond bets already made, I'll sit this election out but it looks like a bugger to call and the electorate's more volatile than ever.
Quite glad I haven't put more than small bets on (predicated on the incumbent cocking things up).
My trains were delayed by 15-20 minutes every day last week, shortformed of 8 coaches rather than 12 at rush hour & again this morning (which is a huge deal - it’s busy enough as it is and this makes everything 50% busier. Many passengers can’t even get on the train, let alone stand on it) and their staff and stock rostering in the event of a perturbed service is appalling.
It’s pretty clear to me that Failing Grayling appointed SWR because they undercut SWT (stagecoach) in their bid. They did that by cutting out any fat in reserve stock or spare staff at major depots and junctions to save money. So, now, NR only needs to cough and the whole service gets f*cked to high-heaven.
Why does this matter?
This service runs through Esher & Walton (Raab), Surrey Heath (Gove) and Surrey South West (Hunt) so i wouldn’t rule out it having a political effect.
The Conservatives are going to have to do something serious about train franchising if they win this election.
That is how London Northwestern ended up playing musical trains at New Street last Saturday - all their drivers had taken the week off.
There is remarkable little spare capacity within the train network and many are so customised that they are only usable on a few lines.
ICM yesterday and Yougov today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1191611249987129344
Yes, as the Operator they may need to manage a train fleet lease contract (long term) but the T&Cs of that will stipulate what stock they need and when - so it’s locked in and they’re responsible for negotiating it.
The thing that infuriates passengers the most is that it’s “no-one’s fault” and, even when it is, those responsible for the failures aren’t present - so it’s the guards who take the brunt of it.
NR are responsible for the infrastructure and engineering works, which they contract out. They have regular failures and overruns that affect the train service - NR’s fault. But, the Operator is also responsible for managing the best service they can and good service recovery.
At the moment they just blame NR, the trains or something else and, even when it is their fault, the Guard refers to his or her bosses in the third person “they” because they haven’t rostered staff properly and it isn’t his fault.
Nationalisation offers no solutions. It would make all that even worse.
LDs used to be quite good seconds in the seat, until 2015 (different boundaries for part of that time). Labout second (distant) since 2015. I'd expect LD to come back to a stong second but would be a shock to me if they took it. Vicky Ford was a remainer but has voted with the government consistently, so shouldn't be hated by either remainers nor rational Brexiters.
Never have I done this. Weird.
Equally, you can't negotiate for stock if the leasing company has already leased it elsewhere.
And if you look at the railways at all the idea that trains have to be leased from a separate company is a blooming strange one as it does lead to things being overpromised and so taken to be used elsewhere.
Sad, really.
Yep, isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Then, suddenly, it all makes sense. Not in a good way, but it makes sense.
It's arguably the worst part of the system, though with stiff competition.
And it just isn’t the case that the ROSCOs arbitrarily pull stock from a franchise because they get a better price elsewhere. The only case I can think of remotely like that was when the new stock for the London Overground’s Gospel Oak-Barking line was delayed but LOROL had already agreed to release the GOBlin’s existing stock elsewhere.
I’m afraid it is.
Also, you don’t seem to understand how stock leasing work. Such contracts are negotiated between the Operator and the RS company, typically for the period of the franchise, and cover the availability of a fleet with daily KPIs and availability metrics.
The immediate reason the services are often short-formed is because of a small defect in the unit (or poor maintenance) leads to them needing to take a 4-coach set out of service at the depot. It’s an issue because the franchisee (SWR) haven’t bothered to negotiate any reserve spare stock in their lease to cover the eventuality of a perturbed or degraded service.
I work in the railway industry so I do know a little bit about what I’m talking about.
More seriously, that could very easily be done as a franchise, as could freight, but dealing with the local operators for pathways instead of Network Rail.
It worked in the 1920s with a much larger and more complex network so it shouldn’t be impossible to do it today.
The American style celebration has a certain charm at times. Read this article from Japan, and marvel at their understanding of ‘mayhem’ and ‘chaos’...
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/01/national/tokyo-shibuya-japan-halloween/
The trouble is that he’s widely disliked and distrusted.
A fresh start would be very welcome.
Diwali and Guy Fawkes are very close, so with a degree of smearing around for weather and from weekdays to weekends, you might need to comfort your pets every day for a fortnight. Round here, Diwali is generally the larger of the two, though this year seemed a bit subdued, more like a normal November the fifth.
New Year is (depending where you are) bigger than both in that it sees large corporate or government displays.
But this year, again perhaps just round here, compared with previous years, it seems to be far harder to buy fireworks, as they seem to have disappeared from (or rather, not appeared in) the supermarkets, and nor have there been the usual pop-up firework shops. Whether that is due to local authority licensing or concern about terrorism or air pollution, who knows? (Well, probably lots of people.)
Have a good morning.
That's now seriously at risk since the useless major Khan has interfered in its price and revenue decisions for his own narrow political ends. TFL's long term sustainability as a good service is now at risk.
It beggars belief to think how much disaster Labour would bring to nationalised industries.
Undermined by a couple of simple questions:
Will you campaign for your own deal in a second referendum?
Will your cabinet?
Why would Europe negotiate any kind of deal with you if you won't support it in a referendum?
It's ridiculous. It's one thing to threaten to walk away if you don't get a deal, quite another to threaten it if you do get a deal.
He hasn't the courage to come out for Leave or Remain. The voters know it. It's part of his toxicity.
This might be a cunning plan, of course. And we know how those can go.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1191611249987129344?s=20
Tomorrow is the start of the campaign and I understand Boris is making his first campaign speech in the Midlands
I regret to say it came across as childishly high-pitched.
Why didn’t the LDs do some voice coaching?
It does nothing for me, but maybe that’s not the point.
'One third of SNP supporters voted for Brexit'
Prompting lots of 'havering ' from Nicola
The real reason the election is on Dec 12...
It set the trajectory for what was to follow, with a big change in the polls.
My guess is that the Tory manifesto is being looked at very carefully this time.
And if the Tories get through the next week without disaster at the manifesto launches, then I don't think Labour will catch them.
Johnson's character is up for grabs for the Lib Dems and massive public spending for Labour. A strange bun fight for Johnson to get involved in. He must know that however much he offers to spend Corbyn will always outdo him. It also deflects from Brexit.
Interestingly on wiki they don’t have Karen listed as the Labour candidate?
It’s detractors will have to attack it harder than that surely.
As a major user of trains one of my major issues is when changing TOCs on a multi leg journey when one leg has been delayed/cancelled.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1191611249987129344
That is the bit that is celebrated.
While it is true Fawkes was later tortured, that was to discover his co-conspirators. It came after the plot was frustrated.
Somehow LNER were able to find a spare train to put on a new Edinburgh to King's Cross service that left Edinburgh not much later than the scheduled Inverness to King's Cross service. This might be because they have a few extra HST sets spare as they make the transition to the new Azuma trains, but I think they ran the original Inverness train down to King's Cross, so they would have needed to find some extra train crew too.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative