Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
There’s a clear drift to Labour in the polls this week. If this continues for a few weeks last weeks comments about Labour finishing behind Libdems and Boris getting 20+ majority can be cut out made to resemble a unicorn.
The history books will say gamble that went wrong under picture of Boris, but that would be bad history. This decision to press for 2019 election was taken before Boris was even elected Tory leader. Boris has said to a few interviews now there was no choice and he sounds genuine on this. What’s the point being in offices and chauffeur driven cars without power in Parliament?
I think even if he went into opposition Boris will say on as leader, and become prime minister after the next election. In fact the Tory’s best hope for a long spell of majority government may be if they go into opposition on December 14th.
I think we both agreed previously anything can happen including a hung parliament
Huzzah for Sir Lindsay Hoyle.. Thrilled that he got the job and not Harriet harman. A good day for democracy.
Surely it would have been a good day for democracy whoever won, given it was a secret democratic vote of the relevant constituency?
Or is it only a good day for democracy if your preferred candidate wins ?
Its a good day for democracy when the winner is someone who is impartial. To me, Bercow was not.
The role of the Speaker is to be on Parliament’s side, something Bercow did very well indeed. Though he also made some silly mistakes.
But the criticisms of him on here are completely OTT in my view.
He was simply a bully and his behaviour as speaker was not impartial
I am surprised so many try to excuse his arrogance and bullying
His arrogance and bullying are an issue but he was as impartial as someone paid to represent Parliament should be when the Government was as big a bunch a cowboys as the Tories have been since screwing up the 2017 election.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
There’s a clear drift to Labour in the polls this week. If this continues for a few weeks last weeks comments about Labour finishing behind Libdems and Boris getting 20+ majority can be cut out made to resemble a unicorn.
The history books will say gamble that went wrong under picture of Boris, but that would be bad history. This decision to press for 2019 election was taken before Boris was even elected Tory leader. Boris has said to a few interviews now there was no choice and he sounds genuine on this. What’s the point being in offices and chauffeur driven cars without power in Parliament?
I think even if he went into opposition Boris will say on as leader, and become prime minister after the next election. In fact the Tory’s best hope for a long spell of majority government may be if they go into opposition on December 14th.
That would scupper Cummings's plan to Year Zero the entire British state though.
Tell you what, the if SCons can put the squeeze on the Brexit Party in Scotland they have a great chance of retaining the bulk of their seats.
One feels though that the Scottish BXP supporter is on the harder core edge of things.
Alistair you normally talk sense but you are in LaLaland there
You have to make some assumptions to get to my conclusion but if you assume the SNP support is basically static nationally then the SNP only take the Conservative seats by the Con vote falling not the SNP vote rising.
The best source of the Con vote falling is going to the BXP or LibDem-to-Con switchers.
The difference between the last Scotland only Panel base of SNP=39 Con=21 BXP=5 And a notional squeeze of SNP=39, Con=24 BXP=2 is (using Electoral Calculus) the difference between the SNP taking 8 seats (with 2 more quite possible to fall) and the SNP taking only 4 Con seats.
Now as it happens I think Con-to-LibDem switching will happen in the NE and that will kill Con chances but on a straight UNS swing BXP percentage is crucial to SCon chances.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
There’s a clear drift to Labour in the polls this week. If this continues for a few weeks last weeks comments about Labour finishing behind Libdems and Boris getting 20+ majority can be cut out made to resemble a unicorn.
The history books will say gamble that went wrong under picture of Boris, but that would be bad history. This decision to press for 2019 election was taken before Boris was even elected Tory leader. Boris has said to a few interviews now there was no choice and he sounds genuine on this. What’s the point being in offices and chauffeur driven cars without power in Parliament?
I think even if he went into opposition Boris will say on as leader, and become prime minister after the next election. In fact the Tory’s best hope for a long spell of majority government may be if they go into opposition on December 14th.
The Tory poll lead over both Labour and the LDs increased with ICM today compared to the last poll.
If we do get a Corbyn government it is unlikely to last long, the leftist Syriza in Greece were turfed out after a term by the conservatives and Hollande only lasted 1 term on a socialist platform too so Boris may still stay Leader of the Opposition and may still lead the largest party even if Corbyn became PM with SNP support, however I still think the Tories will win.
Of course an election was the only way to get the Boris Deal through
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
Huzzah for Sir Lindsay Hoyle.. Thrilled that he got the job and not Harriet harman. A good day for democracy.
Surely it would have been a good day for democracy whoever won, given it was a secret democratic vote of the relevant constituency?
Or is it only a good day for democracy if your preferred candidate wins ?
Its a good day for democracy when the winner is someone who is impartial. To me, Bercow was not.
The role of the Speaker is to be on Parliament’s side, something Bercow did very well indeed. Though he also made some silly mistakes.
But the criticisms of him on here are completely OTT in my view.
He was simply a bully and his behaviour as speaker was not impartial
I am surprised so many try to excuse his arrogance and bullying
His arrogance and bullying are an issue but he was as impartial as someone paid to represent Parliament should be when the Government was as big a bunch a cowboys as the Tories have been since screwing up the 2017 election.
Yes but in any normal work environment he should have been taken to task over his bullying. It is not acceptable in a speaker
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
Notice looking through the papers this evening that it will be all change at the BBC for Election Night. The main programme will be hosted by Huw Edwards instead of David Dimbleby who has done it for the last 40 years.
Bercow was a good and bad speaker at the same time. Good in some ways, bad in others.
Yes, I'd agree. I don't think it necessary to, in some cases, flippantly excuse his having bad points as if all it was he made some mistakes, but even his worst detractors would struggle to say he had no positive qualities as a Speaker even if they think he got worse over time.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
Who knows how this pans out over the next few weeks
I suspect that any talk of LDs overturning five-figure Tory majorities will prove almost entirely fanciful.
Their biggest gains in vote share will come in seats where it won't make much of a difference where they'll either improve on an existing second place or move into the runner-up spot. Here in East Surrey I can see us going from a 24k majority over Labour to maybe a 10k majority over the LDs.
That would be a big improvement for them but ultimately it's still a safe Tory seat. Which is probably why Big Sam isn't taking his chances here under his new colours. That and his poor local record.
The problem (or is it 'feature'?) for the LDs is that for the last 30 years they have picked their battles almost exclusively against the Tories. Consequently they tend to perform best when Labour is also doing well and we are weak. This strategy a) isn't well suited to FPTP when starting from a low seat base; and b) isn't going to see them become the official opposition any time soon.
They are further hurt by the fact that their former heartlands in the SW are quite Brexity. Years from now, we might look back at this as a second example of where they put all their eggs in one basket, gambled on a coin flip and lost.
That said, I did have a dream a couple of nights ago where I was watching the exit poll on tv and it said something 'Boris set for landslide win. Lib Dems likely to become official opposition'. Stranger things have happened. Actually, they haven't.
I don’t read the bloody things. Useful for firelighting though.
LibDem leaflets can be put to good use. (Like you, I am inundated with the bloody things).
They can be laid down on the bottom of the cat pan, then you put the cat litter on top. It keeps the cat litter from sticking to the bottom of the pan, which is nice.
I understand from friends with hamsters, gerbils and guinea pigs that the leaflets are also useful for lining the gerbil cage and so on.
I suspect though, that if the volume of LibDem leaflets coming to YBarddCwsc continues to rise, this may be insufficient. I only have the one cat, after all.
I am thinking of mulching the stuff down into a log-form as a simple fuel. If I could make twenty LibDem leaflet logs every day for the remaining weeks till election day, then I may have enough fuel to burn through the winter in my Welsh fastness.
Wut? The Lib Dem vote is going to be up in Scotland. There's 10,000 Con tactical Unionist votes to squeeze (with a much smaller pro-Indy Labout vote for the SNP to tap)
Sure the LDs should be odds on favourite here not the SNP?
Fife NE is also stuffed full of English students at St Andrews. They'll probably be a bit "rah", but they'll still be pro-Union, pro-EU.
I think they'll fall into line and vote LD.
Understatement of the millenium.
They are full rah. Maximal rah. They only way they worry about Europe is if Brexit will in some way affect their second skiing holiday of the season.
We used to get tonnes of leaflets at election time until about 10 years ago because the area was full of marginal seats at that time. Now we hardly get any.
Huzzah for Sir Lindsay Hoyle.. Thrilled that he got the job and not Harriet harman. A good day for democracy.
Surely it would have been a good day for democracy whoever won, given it was a secret democratic vote of the relevant constituency?
Or is it only a good day for democracy if your preferred candidate wins ?
Its a good day for democracy when the winner is someone who is impartial. To me, Bercow was not.
The role of the Speaker is to be on Parliament’s side, something Bercow did very well indeed. Though he also made some silly mistakes.
But the criticisms of him on here are completely OTT in my view.
He was simply a bully and his behaviour as speaker was not impartial
I am surprised so many try to excuse his arrogance and bullying
I don’t excuse his bullying at all. I wrote quite a trenchant article on it on my work blog when the report came out last year. But note that the report criticised many MPs as well for exactly the same behaviour, something which those who direct their ire only at Bercow choose to ignore.
The Speaker should not be impartial between the Commons and the executive, especially an executive which has been pretty high-handed and arrogant itself.
Bercow has made mistakes but he has been a much better speaker than many give him credit for.
Bercow was a good and bad speaker at the same time. Good in some ways, bad in others.
Yes, I'd agree. I don't think it necessary to, in some cases, flippantly excuse his having bad points as if all it was he made some mistakes, but even his worst detractors would struggle to say he had no positive qualities as a Speaker even if they think he got worse over time.
At times he was excellent and did give backbenchers their voice
However, it takes something for that wonderful speaker, Betty Boothroyd, to call him out over his behaviour and lack of impartiality
The obvious omission from the list of probable LD gains is Cheltenham. However, the most interesting prospect is Guildford (where I live). Anne Milton has been cast into darkness by BJ and is being ostracised by a local Conservative Party which is a stronghold of ex-UKIP entryists. The Conservatives are widely despised for a combination of scandals (the best of which was the council leaders mistress - another Conservative councillor - pretending to be a barrister and being convicted) and pushing through a local plan which led to huge losses in the May elections to action groups as well as the LDs. Whilst it is not an easy LD target it is a likely win given the large Labour vote left to squeeze (from a local Labour Party which is almost moribund).
I am also interested in Wimbledon. I think it a likely Conservative hold, but Hammond has been labelled 'Flip Flop Hammond' in the local media, the LDs have their Merton strength in the Wimbledon seat and Labour seem to have gone AWOL. It will depend on the willingness of previous Labour voters to lend their votes to the LDs.
That’s just the picture they chose. Tbf she does have beautiful eyes. When’s she’s being interviewed and wants to butt in her eyes are thrown wide open in a quite startling way. And when she’s speaking her whole face and body moves theatrically like an actress.
Boris spoke very well when first called upon by the new speaker I think. He does have a friendly timbre to his voice where it’s easy to imagine a cold hearted cad charming so many ladies into bed.
Corbyn spoke as well as he could do at the dispatch box, and that still isn’t very good. His syncopated style, is it down to nerves, or just forgetting what he planned to say?
Today must have been McD on TV duty. As he’s speaking, fluently, instinctively denying the bloody obvious just put to him, I don’t want to believe him, but like Boris he can sound persuasive.
Layla Moran. Is it me or does she sometimes sound just a teeny weeny bit like Queen Elizabeth from Blackadder?
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
I don’t read the bloody things. Useful for firelighting though.
LibDem leaflets can be put to good use. (Like you, I am inundated with the bloody things).
They can be laid down on the bottom of the cat pan, then you put the cat litter on top. It keeps the cat litter from sticking to the bottom of the pan, which is nice.
I understand from friends with hamsters, gerbils and guinea pigs that the leaflets are also useful for lining the gerbil cage and so on.
I suspect though, that if the volume of LibDem leaflets coming to YBarddCwsc continues to rise, this may be insufficient. I only have the one cat, after all.
I am thinking of mulching the stuff down into a log-form as a simple fuel. If I could make twenty LibDem leaflet logs every day for the remaining weeks till election day, then I may have enough fuel to burn through the winter in my Welsh fastness.
Just return to sender. They have to include an address.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Huzzah for Sir Lindsay Hoyle.. Thrilled that he got the job and not Harriet harman. A good day for democracy.
Surely it would have been a good day for democracy whoever won, given it was a secret democratic vote of the relevant constituency?
Or is it only a good day for democracy if your preferred candidate wins ?
Its a good day for democracy when the winner is someone who is impartial. To me, Bercow was not.
The role of the Speaker is to be on Parliament’s side, something Bercow did very well indeed. Though he also made some silly mistakes.
But the criticisms of him on here are completely OTT in my view.
He was simply a bully and his behaviour as speaker was not impartial
I am surprised so many try to excuse his arrogance and bullying
I don’t excuse his bullying at all. I wrote quite a trenchant article on it on my work blog when the report came out last year. But note that the report criticised many MPs as well for exactly the same behaviour, something which those who direct their ire only at Bercow choose to ignore.
The Speaker should not be impartial between the Commons and the executive, especially an executive which has been pretty high-handed and arrogant itself.
Bercow has made mistakes but he has been a much better speaker than many give him credit for.
I don't think mistakes is the right word. He made the wrong choices in some areas perhaps, but those were not mistakes he made.
Huzzah for Sir Lindsay Hoyle.. Thrilled that he got the job and not Harriet harman. A good day for democracy.
Surely it would have been a good day for democracy whoever won, given it was a secret democratic vote of the relevant constituency?
Or is it only a good day for democracy if your preferred candidate wins ?
Its a good day for democracy when the winner is someone who is impartial. To me, Bercow was not.
The role of the Speaker is to be on Parliament’s side, something Bercow did very well indeed. Though he also made some silly mistakes.
But the criticisms of him on here are completely OTT in my view.
He was simply a bully and his behaviour as speaker was not impartial
I am surprised so many try to excuse his arrogance and bullying
I don’t excuse his bullying at all. I wrote quite a trenchant article on it on my work blog when the report came out last year. But note that the report criticised many MPs as well for exactly the same behaviour, something which those who direct their ire only at Bercow choose to ignore.
The Speaker should not be impartial between the Commons and the executive, especially an executive which has been pretty high-handed and arrogant itself.
Bercow has made mistakes but he has been a much better speaker than many give him credit for.
In some ways I agree but I call out all those mps in the same way
I expect over the next six months Bercow may find his legacy is not what he hoped for
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
Presumably the antithesis to Boris whose very presence seems to result in them popping out at regular intervals. I believe that any baby born within 5 miles of Westminster for whom the father is unknown is allocated Boris as a default on the birth certificate.
Bercow was a good and bad speaker at the same time. Good in some ways, bad in others.
Yes, I'd agree. I don't think it necessary to, in some cases, flippantly excuse his having bad points as if all it was he made some mistakes, but even his worst detractors would struggle to say he had no positive qualities as a Speaker even if they think he got worse over time.
At times he was excellent and did give backbenchers their voice
However, it takes something for that wonderful speaker, Betty Boothroyd, to call him out over his behaviour and lack of impartiality
Ms Boothroyd was not quite as wonderful as she likes to think. She was not impartial in her choice of backbenchers to speak during debates and was seen sometimes as too close to the executive.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Yes, it’s all about getting votes now and it may get a few more, but it will drive LDs to Labour, too. So the net gain will be minimal. Then, come August, a failure to extend the transition takes the UK off a cliff edge in December. Either Johnson does that and inflicts significant damage on our economy or he reneges on his promise. Neither is a good option. And it guarantees Brexit is front and centre of everything for the forseeable future.
Nothing to dispute there, and its a shame you're not predicting they'll do better but I suspect not either, unless a still to be determined Debate shows up the other two as useless idiots [1].
No mention of Southport? A tiny bit of local knowledge, I have gleened that the LDs in Bootle and Sefton Central have basically abandoned any attempt to campaign here and will instead throw everything into Southport instead. Perhaps that might swing back?
[1] Unfortunately, those two useless idiots being useless idiots is already baked in, so I don't think a poor show by Johnson/Corbyn and a good showing by Swinson will do much to the polls/final result.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Could you explain how leaving without a FTA differs from leaving with No Deal.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
There’s a clear drift to Labour in the polls this week. If this continues for a few weeks last weeks comments about Labour finishing behind Libdems and Boris getting 20+ majority can be cut out made to resemble a unicorn.
The history books will say gamble that went wrong under picture of Boris, but that would be bad history. This decision to press for 2019 election was taken before Boris was even elected Tory leader. Boris has said to a few interviews now there was no choice and he sounds genuine on this. What’s the point being in offices and chauffeur driven cars without power in Parliament?
I think even if he went into opposition Boris will say on as leader, and become prime minister after the next election. In fact the Tory’s best hope for a long spell of majority government may be if they go into opposition on December 14th.
The Tory poll lead over both Labour and the LDs increased with ICM today compared to the last poll.
If we do get a Corbyn government it is unlikely to last long, the leftist Syriza in Greece were turfed out after a term by the conservatives and Hollande only lasted 1 term on a socialist platform too so Boris may still stay Leader of the Opposition and may still lead the largest party even if Corbyn became PM with SNP support, however I still think the Tories will win.
Of course an election was the only way to get the Boris Deal through
Not just the deal through, to be able to do any governing at all. Are we inching towards agreeing with each other here? All you need to do is drop your comment about ICM and admit in the broad gust of polls a drift towards Labour.
I don’t read the bloody things. Useful for firelighting though.
LibDem leaflets can be put to good use. (Like you, I am inundated with the bloody things).
They can be laid down on the bottom of the cat pan, then you put the cat litter on top. It keeps the cat litter from sticking to the bottom of the pan, which is nice.
I understand from friends with hamsters, gerbils and guinea pigs that the leaflets are also useful for lining the gerbil cage and so on.
I suspect though, that if the volume of LibDem leaflets coming to YBarddCwsc continues to rise, this may be insufficient. I only have the one cat, after all.
I am thinking of mulching the stuff down into a log-form as a simple fuel. If I could make twenty LibDem leaflet logs every day for the remaining weeks till election day, then I may have enough fuel to burn through the winter in my Welsh fastness.
Novelty wrapping paper (free!) for Xmas presents, especially for children, is another use.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
I don't believe her, no matter how clear she makes it. I don't believe the Commons will throw away its chance to Remain again, not when this time every non Tory party likely to get into the Commons has promised a referendum or revoke (or is the DUP) in advance, so can unite on that if nothing else. Their price will probably be that Corbyn doesn't get to renegotiate first, they must just put whichever WA they think is less popular up against Remain.
Implausible? Perhaps, but then I'd be far from alone in making wild predictions that don't then emerge, and I just think that no matter how much Swinson says she won't make Corbyn PM, if it is that or we leave, she goes with the former. The reason it didn't happen this time is she saw other options, like a GE.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
There’s a clear drift to Labour in the polls this week. If this continues for a few weeks last weeks comments about Labour finishing behind Libdems and Boris getting 20+ majority can be cut out made to resemble a unicorn.
The history books will say gamble that went wrong under picture of Boris, but that would be bad history. This decision to press for 2019 election was taken before Boris was even elected Tory leader. Boris has said to a few interviews now there was no choice and he sounds genuine on this. What’s the point being in offices and chauffeur driven cars without power in Parliament?
I think even if he went into opposition Boris will say on as leader, and become prime minister after the next election. In fact the Tory’s best hope for a long spell of majority government may be if they go into opposition on December 14th.
The Tory poll lead over both Labour and the LDs increased with ICM today compared to the last poll.
If we do get a Corbyn government it is unlikely to last long, the leftist Syriza in Greece were turfed out after a term by the conservatives and Hollande only lasted 1 term on a socialist platform too so Boris may still stay Leader of the Opposition and may still lead the largest party even if Corbyn became PM with SNP support, however I still think the Tories will win.
Of course an election was the only way to get the Boris Deal through
Not just the deal through, to be able to do any governing at all. Are we inching towards agreeing with each other here? All you need to do is drop your comment about ICM and admit in the broad gust of polls a drift towards Labour.
There isn't a broad shift to Labour as any Labour squeezing of the LDs has been matched by Tory squeezing of the Brexit Party
How well will we do? No idea - my instinct remains that this election is going to throw out all kinds of crazy results. And there are multiple scenarios that are perfectly doable in this election as it gets going.
I've said it a couple of times and will do so again: having seen huge swings this year, having seen a huge swing in the 2017 campaign and politics even more divided than ever it seems likely that the current polls will swing again.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Could you explain how leaving without a FTA differs from leaving with No Deal.
How would things be different?
As Leaving with No Deal and no WA means the EU would not negotiate a FTA, leaving while still negotiating a FTA is not the same. The WTA is the Deal, just not the final FTA
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Yes, it’s all about getting votes now and it may get a few more, but it will drive LDs to Labour, too. So the net gain will be minimal. Then, come August, a failure to extend the transition takes the UK off a cliff edge in December. Either Johnson does that and inflicts significant damage on our economy or he reneges on his promise. Neither is a good option. And it guarantees Brexit is front and centre of everything for the forseeable future.
Who cares, that would only occur if the Tories have won a historic 4th term with a majority anyway, after that it really does not matter provided the election is won, Corbyn beaten and Brexit delivered
Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.
The Wales poll shows
Labour 18 (-10) Conservatives 17 (+9) Plaid 4 Lib dem 1 (+1)
This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
The poll I was referring to tells a different story re the Welsh poll.
Labour: 29 (+4) Conservatives: 28 (-1) Brexit Party: 15 (+1) Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4) Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change) Greens: 3 (-1) Others: 1 (no change)
Posted with no comment
Seats vs votes.
Ooooh polls.
No, not those polls!
They are both showing the same thing, so I'm not sure what your point is.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
I don't believe her, no matter how clear she makes it. I don't believe the Commons will throw away its chance to Remain again, not when this time every non Tory party likely to get into the Commons has promised a referendum or revoke (or is the DUP) in advance, so can unite on that if nothing else. Their price will probably be that Corbyn doesn't get to renegotiate first, they must just put whichever WA they think is less popular up against Remain.
Implausible? Perhaps, but then I'd be far from alone in making wild predictions that don't then emerge, and I just think that no matter how much Swinson says she won't make Corbyn PM, if it is that or we leave, she goes with the former. The reason it didn't happen this time is she saw other options, like a GE.
She will not make Corbyn PM under any circumstances whatsoever, to do so would guarantee every southern Tory Remain seat swung back to the Tories for good.
She will keep voting for an EUref2 which might have a majority if the LDs held the balance of power though
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Could you explain how leaving without a FTA differs from leaving with No Deal.
How would things be different?
No real difference. At the end of the transition period, unless there is an FTA, Britain becomes a third country vis-a-vis the EU, overnight, in exactly the same way as if we’d left the EU on 31/10 without a WA.
The cliff edge has simply been postponed. Note that in May’s deal, there would have been a backstop and therefore no cliff edge but Boris’s new, improved deal (sarcasm alert) has made sure that we get the cliff edge this time.
The only other difference is that there would be no possibility of revoking Article 50 once we’ve left and are in the transition period. And I imagine that the process of getting all 27 states to agree any extension would likely be even more difficult and would come at a price.
It’s an utterly insane decision to take and will ensure Brexit dominates everything once more during the next Parliament. Johnson will either have to break this promise or inflict significant damage on the UK economy. Either way, it’s a lose for him and the Tories. In the short term, it may win a few BXP votes, but it will also drive LDs back to Labour, so the net electoral gain will be minimal.
It firms up the Leave vote behind the Tories and the LDs will still keep their vote to stop Brexit, it is also not No Deal, just stating that once the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Tories will not extend the transition period but go to full Brexit and keep negotiating for a FTA if need be (the WA passing ensuring the EU will start negotiations on that FTA)
Yes, it’s all about getting votes now and it may get a few more, but it will drive LDs to Labour, too. So the net gain will be minimal. Then, come August, a failure to extend the transition takes the UK off a cliff edge in December. Either Johnson does that and inflicts significant damage on our economy or he reneges on his promise. Neither is a good option. And it guarantees Brexit is front and centre of everything for the forseeable future.
Who cares, that would only occur if the Tories have won a historic 4th term with a majority anyway, after that it really does not matter provided the election is won, Corbyn beaten and Brexit delivered
Indeed. For supporters of Tory FC all that matters is a Tory victory.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
I don't believe her, no matter how clear she makes it. I don't believe the Commons will throw away its chance to Remain again, not when this time every non Tory party likely to get into the Commons has promised a referendum or revoke (or is the DUP) in advance, so can unite on that if nothing else. Their price will probably be that Corbyn doesn't get to renegotiate first, they must just put whichever WA they think is less popular up against Remain.
Implausible? Perhaps, but then I'd be far from alone in making wild predictions that don't then emerge, and I just think that no matter how much Swinson says she won't make Corbyn PM, if it is that or we leave, she goes with the former. The reason it didn't happen this time is she saw other options, like a GE.
She will not make Corbyn PM under any circumstances whatsoever, to do so would guarantee every southern Tory Remain seat swung back to the Tories for good.
She will keep voting for an EUref2 which might have a majority if the LDs held the balance of power though
If there's no plausible Tory government and LDs block a Labour government by pledging to vote against in a VONC, there'll just be a rerun of the election in which the LDs will do much worse. In that situation, Swinson would really have no choice- she'd have to, at the very least, allow PM Corbyn to run a minority government. That may not be such a bad thing from the LDs' perspective, as it'd give them a lot of power, but it'd ultimately still mean Corbyn PM.
I don’t read the bloody things. Useful for firelighting though.
LibDem leaflets can be put to good use. (Like you, I am inundated with the bloody things).
They can be laid down on the bottom of the cat pan, then you put the cat litter on top. It keeps the cat litter from sticking to the bottom of the pan, which is nice.
I understand from friends with hamsters, gerbils and guinea pigs that the leaflets are also useful for lining the gerbil cage and so on.
I suspect though, that if the volume of LibDem leaflets coming to YBarddCwsc continues to rise, this may be insufficient. I only have the one cat, after all.
I am thinking of mulching the stuff down into a log-form as a simple fuel. If I could make twenty LibDem leaflet logs every day for the remaining weeks till election day, then I may have enough fuel to burn through the winter in my Welsh fastness.
Novelty wrapping paper (free!) for Xmas presents, especially for children, is another use.
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
I don't believe her, no matter how clear she makes it. I don't believe the Commons will throw away its chance to Remain agher options, like a GE.
She will not make Corbyn PM under any circumstances whatsoever, to do so would guarantee every southern Tory Remain seat swung back to the Tories for good.
She will keep voting for an EUref2 which might have a majority if the LDs held the balance of power though
If there's no plausible Tory government and LDs block a Labour government by pledging to vote against in a VONC, there'll just be a rerun of the election in which the LDs will do much worse. In that situation, Swinson would really have no choice- she'd have to, at the very least, allow PM Corbyn to run a minority government. That may not be such a bad thing from the LDs' perspective, as it'd give them a lot of power, but it'd ultimately still mean Corbyn PM.
There won't, unless the LDs VONC Boris he will stay in power provided they abstain.
Swinson's policy of refusing to vote for a Corbyn government and refusing to vote for a Boris government is logical and she will stick to it, it also maximises the LD vote, go for Corbyn and Tory Remainers rush back to the Tories, go for Boris and Labour Remainers rush back to Corbyn. Stay neutral and she gets Labour and Tory diehard Remainers
This looks like a classic case where not publishing is going to create worse publicity than publishing. I suspect the actual report is pretty anodyne.
I suspect not. There will be no smoking gun but there will likely be enough of interest there for those who know where to look and/or know how to join up the dots to other information which is already in the public domain.
Also interesting that it is the security chiefs who are pushing for publication and not just the MPs.
Separately wasn't there a report yesterday where Departments were refusing to give Cummings information even though he is supposedly Deep Vetted.
Yes.
The links between Cummings and corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs with links to Russian mobsters would give me sleepless nights, were I in intelligence. Even banks won’t deal with these people. Quite why parts of the British Establishment are so willing to embrace them is another matter. Well, we know why - money.
The question that is never asked is why such people take so much care to get to know movers and shakers and those close to them in the political, charity and commercial worlds. It’s not just money which is laundered. Reputations are as well. We’ve known this - or ought to have known this, if the people in charge did not have the attention span of a goldfish - since the days of Robert Maxwell. The level of naivety and the lack of curiosity are astounding.
He wouldn't have to travel to Moscow to meet the Ukranian oligarchs. Cap Ferrat is full of them. The females are blond and attractive and the men look like overweight seals and they all drive white Bentley SUVs. Not the most unvulgar sight on the Cote d'Azur!
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Vauxhall would be great but hasn't Farage's girl friend got a majority of squillions?
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, if the Tories are largest party and have more MPs than Labour, the SNP, the Greens and Plaid then Boris will stay PM given the LDs will refuse to make Corbyn PM as Swinson has made absolutely clear. The LDs will just keep voting for a referendum amendment or revoke, they will not make Corbyn PM
I don't believe her, no matter how clear she makes it. I don't believe the Commons will throw away its chance to Remain agher options, like a GE.
She will not make Corbyn PM under any circumstances whatsoever, to do so would guarantee every southern Tory Remain seat swung back to the Tories for good.
She will keep voting for an EUref2 which might have a majority if the LDs held the balance of power though
If there's no plausible Tory government and LDs block a Labour government by pledging to vote against in a VONC, there'll just be a rerun of the election in which the LDs will do much worse. In that situation, Swinson would really have no choice- she'd have to, at the very least, allow PM Corbyn to run a minority government. That may not be such a bad thing from the LDs' perspective, as it'd give them a lot of power, but it'd ultimately still mean Corbyn PM.
There won't, unless the LDs VONC Boris he will stay in power provided they abstain.
Swinson's policy of refusing to vote for a Corbyn government and refusing to vote for a Boris government is logical and she will stick to it, it also maximises the LD vote, go for Corbyn and Tory Remainers rush back to the Tories, go for Boris and Labour Remainers rush back to Corbyn. Stay neutral and she gets Labour and Tory diehard Remainers
Or she ends up damned by both sides. Labour's equivocation on Brexit is not a happy precedent.
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
Agreed, it was a good result for the LibDems -- emphatic in terms of seats. In terms of vote share, less so.
LibDems == 38.4 % Tories == 33.9 % Independent (usually Tories in these kind of places) == 5.4 % Labour == 17.4 %
I'd still rate the Tories favourites here, I think.
Why did Heidi change her mind between 7 Oct (when she said she would stand for the LibDems in South Cambs) and 29th Oct (when she said she would stand down) ?
I know the public reason she gave, but I expect that she would have seen some private polling as well. After all, the LibDems are busy commissioning all these constituency polls from Survation .... some of which are being released to the public.
Surely, they have commissioned one for South Cambs .... perhaps Heidi saw it, and saw it would be a tough fight.
While any opinions will obviously coloured by his own position, I must say I think Guido's campaign roundups via bullet points of the main parties is a useful approach more should adopt.
Guido also has a list of MPs standing down. I’d missed this one:
Bill Grant, Con, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
He is nearly 70, and has had a quiet two years.
Looking at the massive shifts in votes in that seat, like many others in Scotland, I don't think becoming a Scottish MP is a path for those seeking a quiet life generally though.
After SNP up 30, then Con up 20, might as well now see LDs up 35 so we can See Lab/SNP/Con/LD follow each other in successive elections.
Best prices - Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (Bill Grant, Con, standing down)
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Vauxhall would be great but hasn't Farage's girl friend got a majority of squillions?
She’s retiring. Her replacement as Labour candidate, Florence Eshalomi, describes herself on Twitter as “Proudly Pro EU”
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
The BXP will determine a lot of the SW seats for the Lib Dems.....if they stand the Lib Dems with a fair wind behind them may see a flash of the glory days of old. St Ives (Cornwall) is a really good example , if the BXP stand (they have a strong candidate acc to my relatives) and the Green's stand aside the LD candidate Andrew George (who was MP '97-15) should be home and dry - this was the Lib Dems safest seat at one point. If BXP are serious and put a strong message out in the SW the Tories will be sweating.
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
What swayed me in South Cambs was the local elections last year. Now, remember that 2018 was before the big LibDem surge. Nationally they were polling 10% or even a little less at the time.
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
Agreed, it was a good result for the LibDems -- emphatic in terms of seats. In terms of vote share, less so.
LibDems == 38.4 % Tories == 33.9 % Independent (usually Tories in these kind of places) == 5.4 % Labour == 17.4 %
I'd still rate the Tories favourites here, I think.
Why did Heidi change her mind between 7 Oct (when she said she would stand for the LibDems in South Cambs) and 29th Oct (when she said she would stand down) ?
I know the public reason she gave, but I expect that she would have seen some private polling as well. After all, the LibDems are busy commissioning all these constituency polls from Survation .... some of which are being released to the public.
Surely, they have commissioned one for South Cambs .... perhaps Heidi saw it, and saw it would be a tough fight.
Or it's one of the polls that's being dribbled out, and we see it next week
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
The BXP will determine a lot of the SW seats for the Lib Dems.....if they stand the Lib Dems with a fair wind behind them may see a flash of the glory days of old. St Ives (Cornwall) is a really good example , if the BXP stand (they have a strong candidate acc to my relatives) and the Green's stand aside the LD candidate Andrew George (who was MP '97-15) should be home and dry - this was the Lib Dems safest seat at one point. If BXP are serious and put a strong message out in the SW the Tories will be sweating.
At least according to the Green Party website, the Greens are not standing aside in St Ives, but fielding a candidate called Ian Flindall
That sounds like a really killer quote. Except it isn't.
Firstly, the number of people who voted Trump then Democrat is pretty small. As is typical in these things, the real question is turnout, not switchers. Lots of Trump voters stayed home in 2018, very few actually switched party. So, we're saying that a two-thirds of a small number will switch back.
Secondly, the Republican margin in Wisconsin and Michigian was tiny last time. The Republicans can't afford to lose anyone.
Thirdly, I agree with you that Warren is a voter repellant. I think she's so socialist (and her wealth tax and healthcare policies) will turn off a large number of voters. But I'm increasingly convinced she won't be the nominee. Most Democrats like their current health plan. They're not keen on being forced to give up something they think is their's. Who will be the nominee? I think that depends on Iowa and New Hampshire. If Biden makes the top two in both those states, then it will probably be him. If he doesn't, then I think Buttigieg takes the mantle from him and goes all the way to the White House.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Bermondsey now has a Labour majority of 13,000 and a relatively popular MP. I can't see the LDs winning it even if they have a very good night overall.
That sounds like a really killer quote. Except it isn't.
Firstly, the number of people who voted Trump then Democrat is pretty small. As is typical in these things, the real question is turnout, not switchers. Lots of Trump voters stayed home in 2018, very few actually switched party. So, we're saying that a two-thirds of a small number will switch back.
Secondly, the Republican margin in Wisconsin and Michigian was tiny last time. The Republicans can't afford to lose anyone.
Thirdly, I agree with you that Warren is a voter repellant. I think she's so socialist (and her wealth tax and healthcare policies) will turn off a large number of voters. But I'm increasingly convinced she won't be the nominee. Most Democrats like their current health plan. They're not keen on being forced to give up something they think is their's. Who will be the nominee? I think that depends on Iowa and New Hampshire. If Biden makes the top two in both those states, then it will probably be him. If he doesn't, then I think Buttigieg takes the mantle from him and goes all the way to the White House.
That sounds like a really killer quote. Except it isn't.
Firstly, the number of people who voted Trump then Democrat is pretty small. As is typical in these things, the real question is turnout, not switchers. Lots of Trump voters stayed home in 2018, very few actually switched party. So, we're saying that a two-thirds of a small number will switch back.
Secondly, the Republican margin in Wisconsin and Michigian was tiny last time. The Republicans can't afford to lose anyone.
Thirdly, I agree with you that Warren is a voter repellant. I think she's so socialist (and her wealth tax and healthcare policies) will turn off a large number of voters. But I'm increasingly convinced she won't be the nominee. Most Democrats like their current health plan. They're not keen on being forced to give up something they think is their's. Who will be the nominee? I think that depends on Iowa and New Hampshire. If Biden makes the top two in both those states, then it will probably be him. If he doesn't, then I think Buttigieg takes the mantle from him and goes all the way to the White House.
There is nothing socialist about a public health insurance scheme or an effective anti-monopoly regime. When people say they like their health plan, they are they saying they like the hospitals and doctors they access. They will still get that under Medicare 4 all. And most people think the ultrarich giving back 6 cents on every dollar after the first fifty million is pretty reasonable.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Bermondsey now has a Labour majority of 13,000 and a relatively popular MP. I can't see the LDs winning it even if they have a very good night overall.
Looking for a LD long(ish) shot, I'm mulling over Truro and Falmouth. the sitting Tory MP Sarah Newton is stepping down, and both seats are relatively remainy by Cornish standards, last time Labour pushed the LDs into third place so plenty to squeeze, no incumbency a long Liberal tradition in the 70s, 80s, 90s and 00s....as I said earlier, an enthusiastic BXP presence would throw up a lot of uncertainty.
It's worth keeping an eye on East Devon where the extraordinary independent campaign of Claire Wright will now be up against a new Conservative candidate. I'm not saying Ms Wright will win it but she ran Hugo Swire relatively close last time:
Seats lost to the Lib Dems are also in the anti Corbyn column
Labour at least can offer the LDs something they want if they are largest party, or if all non-Tories together have a majority at least.
If the Tories are largest party and the LDs hold the balance of power and refuse to make Corbyn PM, Boris stays PM
If there's a non-Tory majority they will make Corbyn PM, however temporarily. How else to get a referendum? After which they can pull the plug and go for an October election 2020. The idea they can maintain their 'plague on both their houses' stance is a fantasy they are peddling.
No they will not, i
Y'know, you could do us all a favour over the next 6 weeks and drop the definite assertions. You're frequently wrong which wouldn't be so bad if you weren't so absolute about being right, even when you're not (Macron, Johnson, Orban are just some examples).
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so do nothing and say nothing. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
Back in the 30s? You are putting a lot of faith in only one poll.
That sounds like a really killer quote. Except it isn't.
Firstly, the number of people who voted Trump then Democrat is pretty small. As is typical in these things, the real question is turnout, not switchers. Lots of Trump voters stayed home in 2018, very few actually switched party. So, we're saying that a two-thirds of a small number will switch back.
Secondly, the Republican margin in Wisconsin and Michigian was tiny last time. The Republicans can't afford to lose anyone.
Thirdly, I agree with you that Warren is a voter repellant. I think she's so socialist (and her wealth tax and healthcare policies) will turn off a large number of voters. But I'm increasingly convinced she won't be the nominee. Most Democrats like their current health plan. They're not keen on being forced to give up something they think is their's. Who will be the nominee? I think that depends on Iowa and New Hampshire. If Biden makes the top two in both those states, then it will probably be him. If he doesn't, then I think Buttigieg takes the mantle from him and goes all the way to the White House.
Sanders lacks a good ground game in Iowa, while Buttigieg and Warren have excellent ones.
It's really important to realise that the proportion of delegates will not accurately reflect the number of voters. So, rural areas where there are only Buttigieg and Warren offices will - in all probability - only send Buttigieg and Warren delegates. Sanders could get 25% of the vote to Buttigieg's 15% statewide, and Buttigieg would likely end up "winning".
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My point is that if there's a (say) 2% chance that the LDs overtake the Labour Party in the national vote this year (and it's probably more like 8-9%), then they'll probably win Birmingham Yardley (and Cambridge and Bermondsey). Now, do I think that will happen? Nope, I think there's a 90+% chance it won't. But if you offered me 30-1 on Birmingham Yardley for the LDs, I'd take it.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
MysticroseTintedGlasses... Parliament won't even be dissolved until tomorrow.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
It’s somewhat premature to describe it as shitshow, as the Conservative campaign isn’t launched yet and it’s a five week campaign.
My guess is that some form of accommodation with the BXP is being discussed behind closed and this would change the electoral dynamics significantly.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy, a major weakness of his. Disrupting your opponent from their plan is usually a good tactic.
As an aside, and just before I go to bed, it seems people are very sceptical of the LibDems chances in Labour held constituencies like Leeds NW.
I think this is a mistake.
In 2018 and 2019, some of the LDs best local election performances happened in these seats.
Now locals and nationals are different. But it was the LDs failure in the locals in Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, and Hornsey & Wood Green that presaged seat losses in the the 2015 and 2017 General Elections. That they have bounced back stronger than ever in these seats (and South Cambridgeshire and St Albans and Richmond Park and Fife NE) is a sign of something.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
something like 10pts.
'Something like'
Hmmm ...
I reckon we are well into single figures, which is already considerably better for Labour than two years ago.
The thing about this is that Brexit has bored most people rigid. The one mantra you hear is 'I'm fed up with it.' People turn off the news and change the subject. This is a terrible shock for the Steve Bakers of this world, but many people outside the far right aren't interested in it. On survey after survey, 'Europe' regularly failed to register in the top 10 of issues of concern to people.
It seems to me that the Conservatives have no ideas on anything else. Except of course Priti Patel's hang 'em, flog 'em, lock 'em up' charm offensive on crime.
Corbyn is making all the running so far and I get the sense that he's only on the amuse bouche of Marxist ideas for Britain. The red-tops are bound to be spitting with rage but some of Labour's ideas will hit the sweet spot. Nationalisation of railways is an obvious one (I think just about all of us rail users are totally fed up with the current franchise system). Other policies may appear bonkers but are amusingly on the money. I personally love the idea of banning private jets. It's magnificent. Made my day yesterday when I heard that. Anyone living near Farnborough airport will cheer. It buys beautifully into the idea, which has basis in fact, that the fat cat b@stards at the top of companies are raking it in and failing to pay their due taxes to this country at the same time as wrecking the climate. Whether that's factual or not matters less than the sweet spot Corbyn may be hitting.
The point is, Labour have the news agenda. The tories look bereft.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
It’s somewhat premature to describe it as shitshow, as the Conservative campaign isn’t launched yet and it’s,a five week campaign.
My guess is that some form of accommodation with the BXP is being discussed behind closed and this would change the electoral dynamics significantly.
Corbyn wanted to,spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy, a major weakness of his. Disrupting your opponent from their plan is usually a good tactic.
A Con deal with the BXP would help the Conservatives in the South West, but would harm them in places like Richmond Park and St Albans. It's also quite possible that - in Northern Leave seats - BXP is drawing as much or more from Labour.
The best of both worlds (for the Conservatives) would be something informal, where BXP stepped down in St Ives, Sheffield Hallam and half a dozen other seats.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My point is that if there's a (say) 2% chance that the LDs overtake the Labour Party in the national vote this year (and it's probably more like 8-9%), then they'll probably win Birmingham Yardley (and Cambridge and Bermondsey). Now, do I think that will happen? Nope, I think there's a 90+% chance it won't. But if you offered me 30-1 on Birmingham Yardley for the LDs, I'd take it.
You'd need some evidence that the direction of travel was going your way to consider that bet. Currently, the gap between Labour and the LibDems is widening, with scant evidence Swinson is cutting through in any posiive way.
Taking a step back after almost the first week of campaigning and I think Labour are clear winners so far. Corbyn's got his mojo and they have some momentum in the polls. They seem to be back into the 30's% and if the BXP keep this up, the tories will be consistently joining them there too.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
You may turn out to be right, but I think it's a little early to be writing off the party that leads in the polls by something like 10pts.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy,
The Labour Brexit policy is in fact looking really rather good right now.
'The Labour leader will outline his plans for renegotiating a new deal based on a customs union with the European Union - and a referendum offering the option to vote for that agreement or Remain - in a major speech on Tuesday.'
A customs union deal vs Remain to a second referendum.
Pretty darned cool approach. Took them an aeon to reach it, but it's good.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My point is that if there's a (say) 2% chance that the LDs overtake the Labour Party in the national vote this year (and it's probably more like 8-9%), then they'll probably win Birmingham Yardley (and Cambridge and Bermondsey). Now, do I think that will happen? Nope, I think there's a 90+% chance it won't. But if you offered me 30-1 on Birmingham Yardley for the LDs, I'd take it.
You'd need some evidence that the direction of travel was going your way to consider that bet. Currently, the gap between Labour and the LibDems is widening, with scant evidence Swinson is cutting through in any posiive way.
Momentum, outside of primary elections, is a myth; so the direction of travel is irrelevant. That the gap widened by four points last week tells me nothing about this week's direction of travel.
Maybe 8-9% is generous, but if you offered me 25-1 on the LDs outpolling the Labour Party, I'd take it. (I'd probably take anything better than 18-1). So, what's that, 6% or so?
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My point is that if there's a (say) 2% chance that the LDs overtake the Labour Party in the national vote this year (and it's probably more like 8-9%), then they'll probably win Birmingham Yardley (and Cambridge and Bermondsey). Now, do I think that will happen? Nope, I think there's a 90+% chance it won't. But if you offered me 30-1 on Birmingham Yardley for the LDs, I'd take it.
It would be to see what the reaction in the media is, if the LDs get 1pp more than Labour but only a third of the number of MPs.
My err... probably wrong model has the Lib Dems with the following
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Sheffield, Hallam Bath North Norfolk Eastbourne Richmond Park Oxford West & Abingdon Leeds North West Westmorland & Lonsdale Bermondsey & Old Southwark Carshalton & Wallington St Ives Cambridge Cheltenham East Dunbartonshire North Devon Cheadle Edinburgh West Lewes Orkney & Shetland Wells St Albans North Cornwall Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross Vauxhall ! Hazel Grove Southport Ceredigion Winchester North East Fife Birmingham, Yardley Burnley Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
Chance of LDs winning Yardley is precisely zero.
I don't think it's zero. It's just very unlikely.
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
Well, Roger Harmer's a good candidate - he might get the Labour majority back under 10,000 - but even that's not certain.
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
My point is that if there's a (say) 2% chance that the LDs overtake the Labour Party in the national vote this year (and it's probably more like 8-9%), then they'll probably win Birmingham Yardley (and Cambridge and Bermondsey). Now, do I think that will happen? Nope, I think there's a 90+% chance it won't. But if you offered me 30-1 on Birmingham Yardley for the LDs, I'd take it.
It would be to see what the reaction in the media is, if the LDs get 1pp more than Labour but only a third of the number of MPs.
Comments
The best source of the Con vote falling is going to the BXP or LibDem-to-Con switchers.
The difference between the last Scotland only Panel base of SNP=39 Con=21 BXP=5
And a notional squeeze of SNP=39, Con=24 BXP=2 is (using Electoral Calculus) the difference between the SNP taking 8 seats (with 2 more quite possible to fall) and the SNP taking only 4 Con seats.
Now as it happens I think Con-to-LibDem switching will happen in the NE and that will kill Con chances but on a straight UNS swing BXP percentage is crucial to SCon chances.
If we do get a Corbyn government it is unlikely to last long, the leftist Syriza in Greece were turfed out after a term by the conservatives and Hollande only lasted 1 term on a socialist platform too so Boris may still stay Leader of the Opposition and may still lead the largest party even if Corbyn became PM with SNP support, however I still think the Tories will win.
Of course an election was the only way to get the Boris Deal through
SNP Under 50.5 seats @ 2.00
Betfair Exchange
SNP Over 50.5 seats @ 2.06
Please collect your free pennies now.
Anything can happen. Seriously unpredictable IMHO
Their biggest gains in vote share will come in seats where it won't make much of a difference where they'll either improve on an existing second place or move into the runner-up spot. Here in East Surrey I can see us going from a 24k majority over Labour to maybe a 10k majority over the LDs.
That would be a big improvement for them but ultimately it's still a safe Tory seat. Which is probably why Big Sam isn't taking his chances here under his new colours. That and his poor local record.
The problem (or is it 'feature'?) for the LDs is that for the last 30 years they have picked their battles almost exclusively against the Tories. Consequently they tend to perform best when Labour is also doing well and we are weak. This strategy a) isn't well suited to FPTP when starting from a low seat base; and b) isn't going to see them become the official opposition any time soon.
They are further hurt by the fact that their former heartlands in the SW are quite Brexity. Years from now, we might look back at this as a second example of where they put all their eggs in one basket, gambled on a coin flip and lost.
That said, I did have a dream a couple of nights ago where I was watching the exit poll on tv and it said something 'Boris set for landslide win. Lib Dems likely to become official opposition'. Stranger things have happened. Actually, they haven't.
They can be laid down on the bottom of the cat pan, then you put the cat litter on top. It keeps the cat litter from sticking to the bottom of the pan, which is nice.
I understand from friends with hamsters, gerbils and guinea pigs that the leaflets are also useful for lining the gerbil cage and so on.
I suspect though, that if the volume of LibDem leaflets coming to YBarddCwsc continues to rise, this may be insufficient. I only have the one cat, after all.
I am thinking of mulching the stuff down into a log-form as a simple fuel. If I could make twenty LibDem leaflet logs every day for the remaining weeks till election day, then I may have enough fuel to burn through the winter in my Welsh fastness.
They are full rah. Maximal rah. They only way they worry about Europe is if Brexit will in some way affect their second skiing holiday of the season.
The Speaker should not be impartial between the Commons and the executive, especially an executive which has been pretty high-handed and arrogant itself.
Bercow has made mistakes but he has been a much better speaker than many give him credit for.
However, it takes something for that wonderful speaker, Betty Boothroyd, to call him out over his behaviour and lack of impartiality
I am also interested in Wimbledon. I think it a likely Conservative hold, but Hammond has been labelled 'Flip Flop Hammond' in the local media, the LDs have their Merton strength in the Wimbledon seat and Labour seem to have gone AWOL. It will depend on the willingness of previous Labour voters to lend their votes to the LDs.
Boris spoke very well when first called upon by the new speaker I think. He does have a friendly timbre to his voice where it’s easy to imagine a cold hearted cad charming so many ladies into bed.
Corbyn spoke as well as he could do at the dispatch box, and that still isn’t very good. His syncopated style, is it down to nerves, or just forgetting what he planned to say?
Today must have been McD on TV duty. As he’s speaking, fluently, instinctively denying the bloody obvious just put to him, I don’t want to believe him, but like Boris he can sound persuasive.
Layla Moran. Is it me or does she sometimes sound just a teeny weeny bit like Queen Elizabeth from Blackadder?
Twickenham
Kingston & Surbiton
Sheffield, Hallam
Bath
North Norfolk
Eastbourne
Richmond Park
Oxford West & Abingdon
Leeds North West
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Carshalton & Wallington
St Ives
Cambridge
Cheltenham
East Dunbartonshire
North Devon
Cheadle
Edinburgh West
Lewes
Orkney & Shetland
Wells
St Albans
North Cornwall
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Vauxhall !
Hazel Grove
Southport
Ceredigion
Winchester
North East Fife
Birmingham, Yardley
Burnley
Brecon & Radnorshire
Portsmouth South next up.
I expect over the next six months Bercow may find his legacy is not what he hoped for
Nothing to dispute there, and its a shame you're not predicting they'll do better but I suspect not either, unless a still to be determined Debate shows up the other two as useless idiots [1].
No mention of Southport? A tiny bit of local knowledge, I have gleened that the LDs in Bootle and Sefton Central have basically abandoned any attempt to campaign here and will instead throw everything into Southport instead. Perhaps that might swing back?
[1] Unfortunately, those two useless idiots being useless idiots is already baked in, so I don't think a poor show by Johnson/Corbyn and a good showing by Swinson will do much to the polls/final result.
How would things be different?
Implausible? Perhaps, but then I'd be far from alone in making wild predictions that don't then emerge, and I just think that no matter how much Swinson says she won't make Corbyn PM, if it is that or we leave, she goes with the former. The reason it didn't happen this time is she saw other options, like a GE.
How well will we do? No idea - my instinct remains that this election is going to throw out all kinds of crazy results. And there are multiple scenarios that are perfectly doable in this election as it gets going.
I've said it a couple of times and will do so again: having seen huge swings this year, having seen a huge swing in the 2017 campaign and politics even more divided than ever it seems likely that the current polls will swing again.
She will keep voting for an EUref2 which might have a majority if the LDs held the balance of power though
The cliff edge has simply been postponed. Note that in May’s deal, there would have been a backstop and therefore no cliff edge but Boris’s new, improved deal (sarcasm alert) has made sure that we get the cliff edge this time.
The only other difference is that there would be no possibility of revoking Article 50 once we’ve left and are in the transition period. And I imagine that the process of getting all 27 states to agree any extension would likely be even more difficult and would come at a price.
- CON may make net gains or
- CON may make net losses or
- CON might end up net no change (318)
Ave it also projects that LD hold Dumbartonshire E.
Swinson's policy of refusing to vote for a Corbyn government and refusing to vote for a Boris government is logical and she will stick to it, it also maximises the LD vote, go for Corbyn and Tory Remainers rush back to the Tories, go for Boris and Labour Remainers rush back to Corbyn. Stay neutral and she gets Labour and Tory diehard Remainers
Before the elections, It was 32 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat. After, it was 30 LibDem, 11 Conservatives. And that was despite the Greens standing and getting double digit percentages in a bunch of seats. Now, I know you have to be a little bit careful, but if you add up all the LibDem votes, you get almost twice what the LDs got in 2017 in the General Election, and pretty much exactly what Heidi got.
My assumption is that the new MP will not do as well as Heidi Allen, that the LDs will squeeze Labour hard, and that it's really Remainy.
I could, of course, be completely wrong.
LibDems == 38.4 %
Tories == 33.9 %
Independent (usually Tories in these kind of places) == 5.4 %
Labour == 17.4 %
I'd still rate the Tories favourites here, I think.
Why did Heidi change her mind between 7 Oct (when she said she would stand for the LibDems in South Cambs) and 29th Oct (when she said she would stand down) ?
I know the public reason she gave, but I expect that she would have seen some private polling as well. After all, the LibDems are busy commissioning all these constituency polls from Survation .... some of which are being released to the public.
Surely, they have commissioned one for South Cambs .... perhaps Heidi saw it, and saw it would be a tough fight.
https://twitter.com/intelligencer/status/1191497333168640002?s=20
https://www.facebook.com/Maureen.Anne.Fitzsimmons/posts/10220301197657990
The greatest Betfair bot of all time (Uberbot) made a lot of money on betting £2 on things at 999-1, when the right price was 450-1.
https://tinyurl.com/y4bn7d9z
Firstly, the number of people who voted Trump then Democrat is pretty small. As is typical in these things, the real question is turnout, not switchers. Lots of Trump voters stayed home in 2018, very few actually switched party. So, we're saying that a two-thirds of a small number will switch back.
Secondly, the Republican margin in Wisconsin and Michigian was tiny last time. The Republicans can't afford to lose anyone.
Thirdly, I agree with you that Warren is a voter repellant. I think she's so socialist (and her wealth tax and healthcare policies) will turn off a large number of voters. But I'm increasingly convinced she won't be the nominee. Most Democrats like their current health plan. They're not keen on being forced to give up something they think is their's. Who will be the nominee? I think that depends on Iowa and New Hampshire. If Biden makes the top two in both those states, then it will probably be him. If he doesn't, then I think Buttigieg takes the mantle from him and goes all the way to the White House.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/nov/04/scotland-stops-treating-under-12s-criminals
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1190242485555081216?s=20
https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1189210805809627141?s=20
From an LD POV I think Solihull and Hall Green are more interesting prospects. I know they're a long way behind in the latter, but with some legwork they should be able to get over 10,000 votes this time, which would be a good springboard for the following election. Meanwhile, complicating matters in Solihull is the fact that the Greens have built up a reasonably strong presence and they have a good candidate.
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/independent-candidate-claire-wright-hopes-3484074
We're all feeling our way at the moment. Sometimes we get it right, often we don't. A little humility wouldn't go amiss. After all, even a blindfold child will occasionally stick the tail on the donkey's derriere.
The Conservatives appear to be running another shitshow election. We've heard almost nothing from them, bereft of ideas and on the one central plank of their policy Johnson has just invited Jeremy Corbyn to have the floor for the whole day.
I'm guessing the tory approach is that they're ahead so 'do nothing and say nothing'. Maybe they realise that any scrutiny will see things unravel. But this approach will lose them the election. All the running, all the eye-catching fresh ideas, are coming from Labour. It's baffling just how crap the tory election machine has become.
It's really important to realise that the proportion of delegates will not accurately reflect the number of voters. So, rural areas where there are only Buttigieg and Warren offices will - in all probability - only send Buttigieg and Warren delegates. Sanders could get 25% of the vote to Buttigieg's 15% statewide, and Buttigieg would likely end up "winning".
I think the Conservatives are going about the near-perfect way to lose this General Election.
My guess is that some form of accommodation with the BXP is being discussed behind closed and this would change the electoral dynamics significantly.
Corbyn wanted to spend today talking about the NHS. He will now be defending his incoherent Brexit policy, a major weakness of his. Disrupting your opponent from their plan is usually a good tactic.
I think this is a mistake.
In 2018 and 2019, some of the LDs best local election performances happened in these seats.
Now locals and nationals are different. But it was the LDs failure in the locals in Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, and Hornsey & Wood Green that presaged seat losses in the the 2015 and 2017 General Elections. That they have bounced back stronger than ever in these seats (and South Cambridgeshire and St Albans and Richmond Park and Fife NE) is a sign of something.
'Something like'
Hmmm ...
I reckon we are well into single figures, which is already considerably better for Labour than two years ago.
The thing about this is that Brexit has bored most people rigid. The one mantra you hear is 'I'm fed up with it.' People turn off the news and change the subject. This is a terrible shock for the Steve Bakers of this world, but many people outside the far right aren't interested in it. On survey after survey, 'Europe' regularly failed to register in the top 10 of issues of concern to people.
It seems to me that the Conservatives have no ideas on anything else. Except of course Priti Patel's hang 'em, flog 'em, lock 'em up' charm offensive on crime.
Corbyn is making all the running so far and I get the sense that he's only on the amuse bouche of Marxist ideas for Britain. The red-tops are bound to be spitting with rage but some of Labour's ideas will hit the sweet spot. Nationalisation of railways is an obvious one (I think just about all of us rail users are totally fed up with the current franchise system). Other policies may appear bonkers but are amusingly on the money. I personally love the idea of banning private jets. It's magnificent. Made my day yesterday when I heard that. Anyone living near Farnborough airport will cheer. It buys beautifully into the idea, which has basis in fact, that the fat cat b@stards at the top of companies are raking it in and failing to pay their due taxes to this country at the same time as wrecking the climate. Whether that's factual or not matters less than the sweet spot Corbyn may be hitting.
The point is, Labour have the news agenda. The tories look bereft.
The best of both worlds (for the Conservatives) would be something informal, where BXP stepped down in St Ives, Sheffield Hallam and half a dozen other seats.
But what does BXP get from that?
'The Labour leader will outline his plans for renegotiating a new deal based on a customs union with the European Union - and a referendum offering the option to vote for that agreement or Remain - in a major speech on Tuesday.'
A customs union deal vs Remain to a second referendum.
Pretty darned cool approach. Took them an aeon to reach it, but it's good.
Maybe 8-9% is generous, but if you offered me 25-1 on the LDs outpolling the Labour Party, I'd take it. (I'd probably take anything better than 18-1). So, what's that, 6% or so?
If he doesn't lose it would defy the form book...