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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, how will the LibDems do?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, how will the LibDems do?
Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts.
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*ahem*
Also about 100 MPs didn't vote. Disgruntled Tories who didn't want to choose between two Labour MPs?
Remainers can't vote Conservative. But can they really vote Labour, either? Aside from the fact that the Labour position is ambiguous, _this is probably their very last chance_ to register their disgust with Brexit before we leave. A vote for the Lib Dems is the clearest proxy for that.
More than that, though I see a lot of my well-to-do remainer friends talking about voting Labour tactically, I just don't see those higher income middle class turkeys voting for Christmas once the Labour manifesto becomes apparent.
The dementia tax is mentioned often, but for me the key failure of the Conservative GE campaign was to fail to drive home the message that the vast amount of Corbyn's policies would be paid for by the squeezed middle. Not the ultra rich in their golden ferraris, but ordinary, hardworking homeowners and professionals.
Labour's proposal to tax all inheritance over £125000 has the real potential to become this year's dementia tax. That will affect a vast number of people. Will they vote Labour? I doubt it. Will they hold their nose and vote Conservative? Probably not. So who is left? The lib dems.
Although I put Richmond Park as 99.99%
SuperJo maybe not as super as some think!
Or was it an awesome pun suggesting that might be a hard one?
https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/ann-widdecombe-stand-brexit-party-3259670
BTW, it's being a big cheater to open your piece by saying you don't have much confidence in predicting this election, you're supposed to slip that in at the end to cover your arse.
It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.
It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs
I'm still haunted by the fact that in the run up to GE2017 I told my then girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
https://twitter.com/caprosser/status/1191388895797301254
It implies there are times when I’m not fully focussed on punning.
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1191459594675138560
Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!
Labour: 29 (+4)
Conservatives: 28 (-1)
Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
Greens: 3 (-1)
Others: 1 (no change)
Posted with no comment
https://order-order.com/2019/11/04/campaign-round-38-days-go/
A gay friend of mine wants to meet Ann Widdecombe because she's improved his sex life.
Mostly SNP who have sensibly gone home
Living in Trump's America is beginning to rub off I see.
Was expecting to see Cheltenham mentioned - it meets your criteria. As I am hoping for a LibDem gain here, have I missed something?
Have a fair system like we had for the Euros and they do just fine.
It's really not rocket science
Really? How does that work?
We aren’t looking at Tory and Labour “supporters “defecting” to the BXP.
We are looking at BXP Euro-election voters and weighing up how many of them might switch (“return”, if you insist) to Tory or Labour.
Looked at this way, Tory leavers - except the diehard ultras who won’t shift anyway - clearly have every reason to return, whereas Labour leavers don’t (excepting to those few Lab MPs with leaver appeal like Flint).
Therefore it remains possible that at its current single figure ratings the BXP has very few potential switchers to Tory amongst its support.
This hypothesis has added credibility when you consider that the Tory vote share has already recovered considerably as BXP deflated, whereas Labour’s has not (only just picking up more recently as the LDs start to drift)
It's nice to see the genuine all-party enthusiasm for Lindsay. He's unpompous and working-class and Northern without making a big thing of any of it - he just is what he is, and neither boasts nor apologises for it. He was never wildly partisan - a union man, but not associated as far as I know with any of the party factions. He's also quite jolly, which doesn't do any harm in these fraught times.
Bill Grant, Con, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
He is nearly 70, and has had a quiet two years.
So why should she be in the potential PMs debate? Or maybe, I dunno, she should fuck off?
Edit: Chancellor of Great Britain, that explains that.
Boris promising to leave and failing to do so will be on the BXP main stories. That will not help the Tories reclaim BXP ex-Tory voters.
Labour is clearly focussing on other items outside Brexit. That may win some of their BXP votes back.
South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD
Ceredigion: I'd like to think Ben Lake will hold this seat. However, Plaid Cymru took it in 2017 even though their vote share dropped -- the LibDem vote share happened to drop more. It was a very fortuitous circumstance, so reluctantly I think the LibDems will take it, on the back of the student vote in the two universities. LIBDEM GAIN.
I am very sceptical on Leeds North West and Hornsey and Wood Green. LAB HOLDS, I think.
The seat that you don't mention which I rate very likely to fall is Guildford. The LibDems start in second place, with a largish Labour vote to squeeze. It is one of the few University seats held by the Tories, the Universities are very Remain-y (not entirely from altruistic reasons). The Tory MP is now ex-Tory. I think this, with St Albans, are the most likely LIBDEM GAINS.
I think all the defectors will lose their seats, and I think Brecon & Radnorshire will be a TORY HOLD, the by-election victor being kicked out.
After SNP up 30, then Con up 20, might as well now see LDs up 35 so we can See Lab/SNP/Con/LD follow each other in successive elections.
Anti-Eu for a start.
And by rising to his bait I’ve made Mr NC’s evening, I’m sure!
It's possible that a corridor of seats from Richmond roughly down the A3 may become a little more marginal after this election: places like Woking and Guildford. Look at the locals and euros before dismissing this.
In the South-west, whatever MM proclaims, Totnes could be close. Sarah Wollaston is an interesting MP and she wasn't elected as a typical Conservative.
Generally though the LibDems need some national traction.
Martin Goss will be disappointed - but Libs fell to 3rd in 2017 from first in 2010.
Minority government goes for new election next year.
And are you a camel if you have two humps?
Ir will make or much much easier for Tories to GAIN a majority
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/11/04/euro-error-trap-says-hungarys-central-banking-chief/