Actually the "changes since" do put an entirely different gloss on this.
Looks like ORB tend to favour Labour, and who the fuck are ORB anyway
The changes are from a period when the Tories were about to poll sub 10% in a nationwide election.
Yeah, I just had a look.
So are ORB any good? They are used by the Telegraph but infrequently, it seems.
ORB, if I recall correctly, don't publish their raw data and aren't a member of the BRC. So, they might be good... but at the same time, you need to be a little bit sceptical.
Boris really needs to finish off the BXP, then he will walk this
Too late to stop Farage standingin all(most) seats. Can he sow division in BXP ranks and see some angry at Farage?
Oddly, a big poll lead might make that more difficult, since BXP voters can assume Boris will win anyway, so they won't stop Brexit by spitting the vote!
Boris really needs to finish off the BXP, then he will walk this
I would just ignore them. Apparently there is a lot of anger within TBP with Farage with many saying the hard ERG are 100% behind the deal and they will vote for Boris
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Great thread Harry. A massively well hung parliament sounds good to me. Corbyn and johnson would both be out within weeks if it's right
Harry's predicted result would be just about the perfect result for those who want a 2nd referendum. There could be no coalition, because the LDs would never countenance a Scottish referendum, and the Nats and Labour wouldn't have enough on their own.
If his horribly hung parliament came to pass, I imagine a very temporary government would be formed solely to call a new referendum and then a new general election straight after. Or maybe both at the same time.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
That feels about right to me, with one caveat. I tend to think of the Con + BXP share as being about 48%, and that's at 51%.
Medium term, the question is whether Labour squeezes the LDs down to the 9-12% level, and therefore close the gap with the Conservaties. Or if "Bollocks to Brexit" resonates, and the LDs steal votes from Labour.
If the former (which is 2017 rerun), then I see a small Conservative majority (say 30-40). If the latter, then it will be a much bigger majority as the non-Tory share will be split.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
Revoke was and is madness. I thought it might help, electorally, before the downsides hit, but it looks like most of the voters already think it is madness, too.
Boris really needs to finish off the BXP, then he will walk this
I would just ignore them. Apparently there is a lot of anger within TBP with Farage with many saying the hard ERG are 100% behind the deal and they will vote for Boris
Farage doesn't care how much anger is directed at him as long as he is the centre of attention.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Swinson might be out on 12th December.
Bring on Chuka?
That requires Chuka to win Cities of London and Westminster from a poor third.
Slightly odd choice of headline. A majority on those figures is perfectly plausible.
Not an odd choice just trying to pretend that corbyn has a chance of winning so you have only one choice of the new messiah to avoid Armageddon and death of the first born.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
I'm not particularly surprised. These is something slightly grating about her. (And as I've pointed out before, she urgently needs to get herself a decent hairdresser).
I think they (or she) have made some strategic missteps as well. The Revoke-without-a-referendum policy was odd; there was no need for it, they could perfectly reasonably have said they support a second referendum and that their long-term goal is for the UK to be a member of the EU, and left open the completely academic question of what they would do if they got a majority.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
People obviously don't remember the Tories under Thatcher!
Thatcher was a brilliant moderate, she was very pro European, one of her earliest acts was to civilise the Scots and Norn Irish by decriminalising homosexuality, and she believed in climate change as well.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
Boris really needs to finish off the BXP, then he will walk this
I would just ignore them. Apparently there is a lot of anger within TBP with Farage with many saying the hard ERG are 100% behind the deal and they will vote for Boris
Farage doesn't care how much anger is directed at him as long as he is the centre of attention.
The only relevant point is how many of his party vote for Boris and even if we some defect to Boris. It may not happen but I really think his day has come and gone
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
To be fair, aren't you a door-knocker in a constituency which might not be the most receptive to her main policy?
On the 'single policy' point, in a way I think that's the opposite of the problem. Just as one thinks they might be OK as an alternative to the big parties, you notice that as well as a Brexit position which at least is clear, they also propose other very off-putting stuff, such as votes for children.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
Revoke was and is madness. I thought it might help, electorally, before the downsides hit, but it looks like most of the voters already think it is madness, too.
Yeah, Revoke without another referendum is not on in my opinion (except if it were the only option to prevent crashing out with no deal), and I believe that I am a "Die Hard Remainer". People have taken the Brexit polarisation narrative too literally - yes the country is deeply divided, but there is still some desire for compromise, which I think may help Labour eventually especially if voters twig that Johnson's deal is a hard Brexit.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Swinson might be out on 12th December.
Bring on Chuka?
That requires Chuka to win Cities of London and Westminster from a poor third.
It's possible. But unlikely.
Given the LD surge in central London polls not impossible, especially with Labour tactical voting and no incumbent as Mark Field is standing down
Since Swinson tweeted disparagingly about "Six white men stuck in the past" it would be frightfully amusing if, after the dust had settled, that's all her parliamentary party consisted of.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Swinson might be out on 12th December.
Bring on Chuka?
That requires Chuka to win Cities of London and Westminster from a poor third.
It's possible. But unlikely.
Given the LD surge in central London polls not impossible, especially with Labour tactical voting and no incumbent as Mark Field is standing down
Yes, they should do well in London. Chuka is certainly trying hard.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
To be fair, aren't you a door-knocker in a constituency which might not be the most receptive to her main policy?
On the 'single policy' point, in a way I think that's the opposite of the problem. Just as one thinks they might be OK as an alternative to the big parties, you notice that as well as a Brexit position which at least is clear, they also propose other very off-putting stuff, such as votes for children.
I am fairly chilled at this point, and am sure that she will contrast well with Johnson and Corbyn when the campaign proper begins, and media coverage rules apply.
However punters may want to follow me in on these bets with Shadsy.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
People obviously don't remember the Tories under Thatcher!
Thatcher was a brilliant moderate, she was very pro European, one of her earliest acts was to civilise the Scots and Norn Irish by decriminalising homosexuality, and she believed in climate change as well.
Hmm not how it felt if you were growing up in Scotland and the NE of England in the 1980s, with the "enemy within" stuff, Poll Tax, tax cuts for the rich, the later hostility towards Europe, crazy monetarism, mass unemployment, and her horrible fake posh voice that was like nails on a blackboard. I will give you climate change though, she was a good scientist unlike all the awful PPE wankers who have followed her, and some of the records published ex post have shown her to have perhaps taken a more reasonable line in private, eg on South Africa and talking to the IRA, than the strident right wing tone she adopted in public. Undoubtedly the greatest politician of the postwar era, like her or mostly loathe her as I did.
That feels about right to me, with one caveat. I tend to think of the Con + BXP share as being about 48%, and that's at 51%.
Medium term, the question is whether Labour squeezes the LDs down to the 9-12% level, and therefore close the gap with the Conservaties. Or if "Bollocks to Brexit" resonates, and the LDs steal votes from Labour.
If the former (which is 2017 rerun), then I see a small Conservative majority (say 30-40). If the latter, then it will be a much bigger majority as the non-Tory share will be split.
Not all Tory voters will be pro-remain; some will be anti-Corbyn. (I’m assuming that is where your 48% comes from).
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Swinson might be out on 12th December.
Bring on Chuka?
That requires Chuka to win Cities of London and Westminster from a poor third.
It's possible. But unlikely.
Given the LD surge in central London polls not impossible, especially with Labour tactical voting and no incumbent as Mark Field is standing down
Yes, they should do well in London. Chuka is certainly trying hard.
I'm backing the blues there. Labour won't go forward there and Chuka needs a colossal swing to win. I'd have backed the Lib Dems at 2-1 maybe but the price has collapsed in far too much for what is still a huge ask
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
People obviously don't remember the Tories under Thatcher!
Thatcher was a brilliant moderate, she was very pro European, one of her earliest acts was to civilise the Scots and Norn Irish by decriminalising homosexuality, and she believed in climate change as well.
Hmm not how it felt if you were growing up in Scotland and the NE of England in the 1980s, with the "enemy within" stuff, Poll Tax, tax cuts for the rich, the later hostility towards Europe, crazy monetarism, mass unemployment, and her horrible fake posh voice that was like nails on a blackboard. I will give you climate change though, she was a good scientist unlike all the awful PPE wankers who have followed her, and some of the records published ex post have shown her to have perhaps taken a more reasonable line in private, eg on South Africa and talking to the IRA, than the strident right wing tone she adopted in public. Undoubtedly the greatest politician of the postwar era, like her or mostly loathe her as I did.
I grew up in South Yorkshire in the 1980s, the epicentre of anti-Thatcher sentiment.
Thatcher as she governed is the benchmark for my PMs.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
Does not surprise me , she is rubbish , annoying and a whinger.
Labour had best hope the Tories don't lose Cities if the score is as wide as some polls are suggesting, it would imply almost unthinkable results elsewhere
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I think that's because they are rubbish at politics, even when they occasionally have good ideas. Now they've combined a terrible idea, Revoke, with being rubbish.
There are 150 billionaires in the UK while 14 million people live in poverty.
In a fair society there would be no billionaires and no one would live in poverty.
So Jeremy where will you find the tax, jobs and investment, when they all go to Ireland or the like
Seek a loan from Venezeula ?
This has to be the first leader of our main parties to espouse such insanity
It's not intended for this audience. It's a short snippet for social media sharing that shows Labour are on the side of the people and if the Tories respond then they are on the side of the billionaires. It's cynical, but smart politics.
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
That feels about right to me, with one caveat. I tend to think of the Con + BXP share as being about 48%, and that's at 51%.
Medium term, the question is whether Labour squeezes the LDs down to the 9-12% level, and therefore close the gap with the Conservaties. Or if "Bollocks to Brexit" resonates, and the LDs steal votes from Labour.
If the former (which is 2017 rerun), then I see a small Conservative majority (say 30-40). If the latter, then it will be a much bigger majority as the non-Tory share will be split.
Not all Tory voters will be pro-remain; some will be anti-Corbyn. (I’m assuming that is where your 48% comes from).
My 48% is just a rule of thumb that's tended to be replicated across polls from various organisations. It could be completely wrong.
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
Revoke was and is madness. I thought it might help, electorally, before the downsides hit, but it looks like most of the voters already think it is madness, too.
If they'd stuck to 2nd referendum I think that would be fine, but many Remainers think that straight Revoke, even with a general election win, smacks of discarding the previous result without giving the electorate a proper say.
Billionaires are fine, what is needed is an incentive system to make their money work. E.g. Musk couldn't go for his space adventures without being a billionaire. If Bezos had a trillion dollars he might be able to start work on an O Neill colony or some such. It's the ones that just sit around doing nothing much that are the issue.
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
We would be the only country in Western Europe, North America and Oceania without a billionaire, which is not encouraging as to where we would be headed.
Since Swinson tweeted disparagingly about "Six white men stuck in the past" it would be frightfully amusing if, after the dust had settled, that's all her parliamentary party consisted of.
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
But you’re completely relaxed about the current Prime Minister’s attempt to suspend democracy.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
People obviously don't remember the Tories under Thatcher!
Thatcher was a brilliant moderate, she was very pro European, one of her earliest acts was to civilise the Scots and Norn Irish by decriminalising homosexuality, and she believed in climate change as well.
Hmm not how it felt if you were growing up in Scotland and the NE of England in the 1980s, with the "enemy within" stuff, Poll Tax, tax cuts for the rich, the later hostility towards Europe, crazy monetarism, mass unemployment, and her horrible fake posh voice that was like nails on a blackboard. I will give you climate change though, she was a good scientist unlike all the awful PPE wankers who have followed her, and some of the records published ex post have shown her to have perhaps taken a more reasonable line in private, eg on South Africa and talking to the IRA, than the strident right wing tone she adopted in public. Undoubtedly the greatest politician of the postwar era, like her or mostly loathe her as I did.
I grew up in South Yorkshire in the 1980s, the epicentre of anti-Thatcher sentiment.
Thatcher as she governed is the benchmark for my PMs.
Given the voting splits by age its likely that in England the Conservatives now lead among the miners of 1984.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
To be fair, aren't you a door-knocker in a constituency which might not be the most receptive to her main policy?
On the 'single policy' point, in a way I think that's the opposite of the problem. Just as one thinks they might be OK as an alternative to the big parties, you notice that as well as a Brexit position which at least is clear, they also propose other very off-putting stuff, such as votes for children.
I am fairly chilled at this point, and am sure that she will contrast well with Johnson and Corbyn when the campaign proper begins, and media coverage rules apply.
However punters may want to follow me in on these bets with Shadsy.
LD under 10% at 18
LD 20-29 seats at 5.5
No chance in my view..just speaking to.people on the street the LIB dem.offering is beautifully simple
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
Project Fear.
Project fear's can be based in fact, if the truth is something one should be fearful of. The Corbyn stuff does get overblown though, it's a bit of the Ed M issue - is he to be shown as too weak and stupid to be serious, or is he a dangerous menace because he will be able to deliver on what he says?
There are 150 billionaires in the UK while 14 million people live in poverty.
In a fair society there would be no billionaires and no one would live in poverty.
So Jeremy where will you find the tax, jobs and investment, when they all go to Ireland or the like
Seek a loan from Venezeula ?
This has to be the first leader of our main parties to espouse such insanity
Increasing disparity between the super rich "Citizens of Nowhere" and those left behind in old coalfield towns is a large part of the genesis of Brexit.
Corbyn may not have the right solution but he has recognised the problem. Can BoZo and JRM?
You can all believe this or not but here goes.. I was with a very senior Tory for.mist of today watching the rugby then lunch..he has absolutely no idea how the feeling is in his constituency..not only that the individual told.me.nor.do most Tory MPs. The LIb Dems.ground game.is far more.advanced than.any.of the other parties.. Just saying
Mr. NorthWales, I'm more interested in how he's going to effect that.
Straightforward seizure of private property? Punitive taxation? Exile?
To some extent you are welcoming your new insect overlords. A small percentage of the billionaires are spiffy entrepreneurs reaping the just rewards of inventing a better vacuum cleaner. The rest are kleptocrats. We can tell this from the ludicrous increase in ceo vs average pay over the last 50 years. Either ceos have got 20x better at their jobs (they haven't) or they have got better at diverting money to themselves at the expense of the workforce and shareholders (they have). It is perfectly acceptable capitalist thought that we should identify and frustrate cartels of this sort rather than cringe in gratitude at the thought that they pay a limited amount of tax on the proceeds of the scam.
Billionaires are fine, what is needed is an incentive system to make their money work. E.g. Musk couldn't go for his space adventures without being a billionaire. If Bezos had a trillion dollars he might be able to start work on an O Neill colony or some such. It's the ones that just sit around doing nothing much that are the issue.
And who think paying tax is something other people should do.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
People obviously don't remember the Tories under Thatcher!
Thatcher was a brilliant moderate, she was very pro European, one of her earliest acts was to civilise the Scots and Norn Irish by decriminalising homosexuality, and she believed in climate change as well.
Hmm not how it felt if you were growing up in Scotland and the NE of England in the 1980s, with the "enemy within" stuff, Poll Tax, tax cuts for the rich, the later hostility towards Europe, crazy monetarism, mass unemployment, and her horrible fake posh voice that was like nails on a blackboard. I will give you climate change though, she was a good scientist unlike all the awful PPE wankers who have followed her, and some of the records published ex post have shown her to have perhaps taken a more reasonable line in private, eg on South Africa and talking to the IRA, than the strident right wing tone she adopted in public. Undoubtedly the greatest politician of the postwar era, like her or mostly loathe her as I did.
I grew up in South Yorkshire in the 1980s, the epicentre of anti-Thatcher sentiment.
Thatcher as she governed is the benchmark for my PMs.
She was an extremely competent politician and was able to make more substantive changes to Britain than any leader since Atlee or subsequently. I think though she was without doubt the least moderate Tory PM of the postwar era, with the possible exception of BJ (because of Brexit). I do also think that she is responsible for most of the sickness plaguing our society currently, and I say that as somebody who has been a massive winner in the sink or swim society she created.
Jeremy Corbyn is an incredible danger to the country.
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
It's a stupid argument from a stupid man.
There are many countries that have more billionaires per capita than us. Including countries like Sweden, Norway, Germany, Canada, and Denmark. You wouldn't want to live in most of the countries that have far fewer.
There are 150 billionaires in the UK while 14 million people live in poverty.
In a fair society there would be no billionaires and no one would live in poverty.
So Jeremy where will you find the tax, jobs and investment, when they all go to Ireland or the like
Seek a loan from Venezeula ?
This has to be the first leader of our main parties to espouse such insanity
Increasing disparity between the super rich "Citizens of Nowhere" and those left behind in old coalfield towns is a large part of the genesis of Brexit.
Corbyn may not have the right solution but he has recognised the problem. Can BoZo and JRM?
His solution is to tell the billionaires to fuck off.
And then he'll have to close hospitals when they do.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
I am surprised by the hostility I hear to Swinson. People just don't like here (especially women of my acquaintance)
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
Does not surprise me , she is rubbish , annoying and a whinger.
As I was saying last night, she is a single-point-of-failure for the Libs, and if she fails to withstand the scrutiny, it is a problem.
I'm backing the blues there. Labour won't go forward there and Chuka needs a colossal swing to win. I'd have backed the Lib Dems at 2-1 maybe but the price has collapsed in far too much for what is still a huge ask
You can all believe this or not but here goes.. I was with a very senior Tory for.mist of today watching the rugby then lunch..he has absolutely no idea how the feeling is in his constituency..not only that the individual told.me.nor.do most Tory MPs. The LIb Dems.ground game.is far more.advanced than.any.of the other parties.. Just saying
The LibDem ground game is going to be stretched, though, if they spread their efforts too widely.
The most striking thing about these latest two polls, and other recent ones, is that the LibDems don't seem to be picking up the levels of support which one might expect given the political environment and the states of the two big parties.
Or, if you are door-knocker, entirely expected - with a poor leader who puts off voters with a single unpopular policy - and nothing else.
To be fair, aren't you a door-knocker in a constituency which might not be the most receptive to her main policy?
I'm in Dr. Sarah Wollaston's Totnes constituency.....one of the few places in the SW to vote Remain. But it is still going down very bady here.
Mr. NorthWales, I'm more interested in how he's going to effect that.
Straightforward seizure of private property? Punitive taxation? Exile?
To some extent you are welcoming your new insect overlords. A small percentage of the billionaires are spiffy entrepreneurs reaping the just rewards of inventing a better vacuum cleaner. The rest are kleptocrats. We can tell this from the ludicrous increase in ceo vs average pay over the last 50 years. Either ceos have got 20x better at their jobs (they haven't) or they have got better at diverting money to themselves at the expense of the workforce and shareholders (they have). It is perfectly acceptable capitalist thought that we should identify and frustrate cartels of this sort rather than cringe in gratitude at the thought that they pay a limited amount of tax on the proceeds of the scam.
Did you ever watch Wall Street? In it, Gordon Gecko attacked the old world, when CEOs didn't get paid much, but didn't really care about corporate performance. They enjoyed their executive dining room and the perks of power, and their businesses stagnated.
Now, CEOs are incentivised up to their eyeballs to drive share prices. It's been a key driver of disparities.
Comments
Dammit.
Oddly, a big poll lead might make that more difficult, since BXP voters can assume Boris will win anyway, so they won't stop Brexit by spitting the vote!
So they were a bit down on the Conservatives and quite a lot down on the LibDems.
If his horribly hung parliament came to pass, I imagine a very temporary government would be formed solely to call a new referendum and then a new general election straight after. Or maybe both at the same time.
In November 2018 the Tories were polling 42% and regularly in the 40s.
Ditto June 2018 when they hit 44%
Bring on Chuka?
This surprises me entirely. But it is what I encounter.
https://twitter.com/oilysailor/status/1190637631643815940
For anyone who doesn't expect a Labour meltdown then there are some nice constituency bets at SkyBet.
For example Labour to win Barnsley Central at 2/5, Brighton Kemptown at 4/6 and Doncaster North at 1/2.
Medium term, the question is whether Labour squeezes the LDs down to the 9-12% level, and therefore close the gap with the Conservaties. Or if "Bollocks to Brexit" resonates, and the LDs steal votes from Labour.
If the former (which is 2017 rerun), then I see a small Conservative majority (say 30-40). If the latter, then it will be a much bigger majority as the non-Tory share will be split.
Tories 423
Labour 147
LDs 24
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=42&LAB=26&LIB=16&Brexit=9&Green=3&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
It's possible. But unlikely.
Who cares about politics?
Well done to SA. They were great.
And now, gin.
I think they (or she) have made some strategic missteps as well. The Revoke-without-a-referendum policy was odd; there was no need for it, they could perfectly reasonably have said they support a second referendum and that their long-term goal is for the UK to be a member of the EU, and left open the completely academic question of what they would do if they got a majority.
On the 'single policy' point, in a way I think that's the opposite of the problem. Just as one thinks they might be OK as an alternative to the big parties, you notice that as well as a Brexit position which at least is clear, they also propose other very off-putting stuff, such as votes for children.
ORB still gives a small Tory majority on UNS, Opinium gives a huge Tory landslide of 1983 and 1997 and 2001 size
However punters may want to follow me in on these bets with Shadsy.
LD under 10% at 18
LD 20-29 seats at 5.5
Thatcher as she governed is the benchmark for my PMs.
There are 150 billionaires in the UK while 14 million people live in poverty.
In a fair society there would be no billionaires and no one would live in poverty.
So Jeremy where will you find the tax, jobs and investment, when they all go to Ireland or the like
Seek a loan from Venezeula ?
This has to be the first leader of our main parties to espouse such insanity
Straightforward seizure of private property? Punitive taxation? Exile?
I wouldn't be surprised if he got his wish and there were zero billionaires in the country after he spent 5 years in Downing Street. What impact that would have on the Exchequer shouldn't need pointing out ...
E.g. Musk couldn't go for his space adventures without being a billionaire. If Bezos had a trillion dollars he might be able to start work on an O Neill colony or some such.
It's the ones that just sit around doing nothing much that are the issue.
Her successors:
Major: University of Hard Knocks
Blair: Law
Brown: History
Cameron: OK: PPE
May: Geography
Johnson: Literae Humaniores (Philosophy and Classics)
And if you seriously believe ancient Greek's for wimps, you're an even bigger wanker than Johnson. Which till now, I'd have thought impossible.
Corbyn may not have the right solution but he has recognised the problem. Can BoZo and JRM?
I was with a very senior Tory for.mist of today watching the rugby then lunch..he has absolutely no idea how the feeling is in his constituency..not only that the individual told.me.nor.do most Tory MPs.
The LIb Dems.ground game.is far more.advanced than.any.of the other parties..
Just saying
There are many countries that have more billionaires per capita than us. Including countries like Sweden, Norway, Germany, Canada, and Denmark. You wouldn't want to live in most of the countries that have far fewer.
And then he'll have to close hospitals when they do.
Now, CEOs are incentivised up to their eyeballs to drive share prices. It's been a key driver of disparities.