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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament
When I started this, I, like most people, believed I would be tallying the local by-elections for October 2019. Now, I find myself publishing the data for every by-election in the 2017 – 2019 Parliament! And, aside from everything happening inside Westminster, what an eventful few years it has been in local by-elections. We’ve had Labour gaining seats from the United Kingdom Independence Party, Local Independents gaining seats from Labour and Conservatives, Greens gaining seats from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat gains from UKIP, Independent gains from Labour, SNP gains from Liberal Democrat and even some oxymorons in the form of Green gains from Independents, and an Independent gain from a local Independent!
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Just had a flutter on SNP under 50.5 so was disheartened to read your prediction Harry.
https://twitter.com/Zombie_Jeebus/status/1190623680319148033?s=20
Time to disband Holyrood.
And even since August, Boris has got the deal without a backstop that they said was impossible. Personally, I think we should just go with the latest by-election, that saw Labour go from 1st to 4th....
One thing not much commented on is what the Tories are going to offer in their manifesto soft centre-right Remainer voters in the South to stick with them, and not go to the LDs.
Today's Telegraph suggested they might show a bit of leg on tax cuts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50266955
I expect most Unionist seats to be very sticky.
Confusion as NO ONE turns up for 'huge' pro Brexit demo in Doncaster.
A ‘huge’ pro-Brexit demonstration planned for Doncaster this morning has caused confusion after no-one turned up.
https://www.thestar.co.uk/news/confusion-no-one-turns-huge-pro-brexit-demo-doncaster-825135
We've said we won't put Corbyn into No 10, and we won't go into another coalition with a big party. Neither necessarily stops us from voting with a Labour-led coalition on an ad hoc basis though it's obvious that we'd be a great deal more co-operative with a Labour party led by a real social democrat.
But if it came to a choice between mostly voting with a Referendum-supporting, Corbyn-led, grouping and voting with a Johnson-led Tory rump still chained to a Withdrawal Agreement we can't stand, common sense says we'd hold our noses and vote with Labour most of the time.
And Harry's numbers would mean Corbyn would be under the cosh. He';d have lost seats - so many LibDems would be pressurising the LD leadership to make an imminent Labour leadership contest a condition of support: remember the LD constitution almost certainly requires an EGM to approve even a C&S deal with Labour.
Of course: how accurate Harry's projections are we won't know till Dec 13. And there's an AWFUL lot of water to flow under bridges in the next six weeks. Tonight's will probably be as useful a guide to the end result as the position of forces on September 6, 1939.
It all evens out over a season. At Leicester we have had such marginal decisions go both ways.
At 50 fps the ball and players are moving a material amount between each frame to mean that VAR cannot give a definitive accurate answer when the margins are less than the margin of error.
Thanks for this, and your ongoing work, Mr. Hayfield.
The massive downside of the delays and uncertainty about whether to celebrate a goal far outweighs any marginal improvement in quality of decision.
This VAR has totally changed the sport, for the worse.
As a season ticket holder at Old Trafford the faster we see the back of it the better.
As the projection is based (arbitrarily) on local by-elections since August 2019, it would be helpful if the article stated how many such by-elections there were.
We are told ~ 500 by-elections since the last GE, so it looks as though the prediction is based on ~ 40 by-elections.
If you carried out this exercise for the last general election of June 2017, and took all by-election results for the preceding 3 months to generate a prediction, how accurate would your answer have been ?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/revealed-50-seats-five-point-swing-could-see-labour-lose-tories/
Firmino doesn't appear to be leaning forward hardly at all so I do wonder about the angle of the line down from the armpit.
At the King Power it hasn't held things up much.
Fair enough if it was. But where does that leave life on Mars?
One change that could restore a bit of balance would be to redefine the offside law in matches subject to VAR so that for an offside the torso of the attacking player needs to be in front of any part of the defending player. Attackers' big toes will no longer count.
The MRP approach, as I understand it, works by giving up on the fiction of a random sample from the whole population and instead committing fully to a demographic approach by constructing adequately sized samples for each demographic group. As it also uses finer grained demographic groups than in a normal opinion poll you end up with a requirement for a much larger sample of ~50,000.
I think these will be reasonably accurate, provided your chosen demographic groups are sufficient to explain enough of the variance in support in the sample. So it's possible that they could struggle if there's a new faultline in society that they neglect.
But good news for Boris here, I think, because it probably shows that the Leave community are NOT angry with him about us not leaving on 31 Oct. They don't feel betrayed. They trust him to get us out after the GE, if he wins. They view him and his Deal as proper Leave. That would be my take anyway.
Undertaken on Wednesday and Thursday, the new poll is likely to spark concern within the Conservative campaign.
Experts warned that Mr Johnson will need to significantly increase his lead to be sure of securing a majority.
Farage will be pleased though. The more the Tory majority looks at risk, the greater the impact his party has on whether the Tories can cross the line - and having an impact, even negative, appears to be his preferred option.
Overhyped losers...
Wasn't Firmino's goal flagged as offside by the linesman, so without VAR wouldn't have stood?
Tories 358
Labour 211
LD 24
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=28&LIB=14&Brexit=12&Green=2&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Has Corbyn engineered another surge? Has Boris blown this?
All this and shitty weather, a World Cup final defeat, and fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck
Looks like ORB tend to favour Labour, and who the fuck are ORB anyway
Boris would be over the moon with that.
So are ORB any good? They are used by the Telegraph but infrequently, it seems.
I am much more suspicious of phone polls in the modern age, such as the one last night from Workington. Those who answer landlines to such surveys are queer fish indeed.
Phew.
But is that simply because they look OK for Labour?