Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread

123578

Comments

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    Diane Abbot: Political Svengali and Strategic Genius

    Not feeling it, to be honest with you, Richard.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looking at BBC Parliament, the Labour benches are very empty.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Now an election looks likely, are seat number spread markets available? EG total Scottish tory seats/ total Welsh labour seats etc.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    I think Dianne is fighting the last war.
    To be fair , I was wrong last time, as I thought May would get over 100 majority.
    I think Johnson will get his substantial majority this time.
  • Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    This is incredibly rare and I would never normally say this but I agree with both the PLP and Diane Abbott here!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2019
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Is Eleanor Laing suddenly a cracking bet for Speaker? 14/1 at PP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    AndyJS said:

    Looking at BBC Parliament, the Labour benches are very empty.

    Apparently most Labour MPs aren't in Westminster today?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited October 2019
    Anorak there first.

    The shambles .. the shambles ...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Yorkcity said:

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    I think Dianne is fighting the last war.
    To be fair , I was wrong last time, as I thought May would get over 100 majority.
    I think Johnson will get his substantial majority this time.
    I recently received an e-mail from her. Although not a party member , I did pay £3 in 2015 to vote in the leadership election which explains the ability to contact me. Following her reported remarks, I am now inclined to reply in kind by using her own words verbatim.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Is Eleanor Laing suddenly a cracking bet for Speaker? 14/1 at PP.

    If Parliament agrees an election tomorrow I'm wondering whether the Speaker election might be delayed until after the general election?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    SNP MP Angus Macneil confirms he will not support the Swinson Bill.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    SNP MP Angus Macneil confirms he will not support the Swinson Bill.

    Is he the longest-serving SNP MP?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    If it's leaver bias, then Boris is okay.
    His worry is if Brexit party supporters don't believe he gave it his all.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    He didn't break it, he got outvoted, he had no choice and he did not consent to the extension.

    You can not hold somebody accountable for that which they did not consent to. If someone says they will remain a virgin until marriage then they get raped are they a liar? Of course not! They didn't consent!

    Boris didn't consent to the extension, he got outvoted by his opponents in Parliament who left him no choice in the matter, with opponents like Joanna Cherry MP even using the courts to make it abundantly clear that Boris had no say in the matter.
    That's all fine. But anyone with eyes and a brain new the PM would have to obey the law. So on saying "we're leaving come what may" he was lying. And in lying to the stupid encouraging others to propagate a lie that he knew was a lie
    It’s shrewd politics. No more and no less. He was saying what his supporters wanted him to say, and allowed them to discover the parliamentary arithmetic “with” him. By doing so he showed them that Parliament caused an extension and not him.

    Cynical, but good politics. And not a broken promise as such.
    I am sorry I dont agree. BJ cynically played Leavers and those of us astute enough to realise his nefarious misrepresentations were greated with hubris...
    I think a lot of leavers (and remainers) on the internet feel the need to be part of the narrative and feed the attack lines. In reality I think a lot of leaver’s honest position is like mine: Boris is the most useful vehicle available to deliver Brexit so I’ll vote to get him a strong Government. If he can win a few other votes lying then great.

    I’m looking forward to a future with a bit more choice.

    (For clarity I think a lot of remainers are putting up with shabby behaviour from “their side” too, in order to get what they want).
    I still wonder why Farage is silent! I have just checked his twitter and nothing. The Brexit supporting media have also switched Farage & TBP off. Something is afoot! :wink:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    Is Eleanor Laing suddenly a cracking bet for Speaker? 14/1 at PP.

    If Parliament agrees an election tomorrow I'm wondering whether the Speaker election might be delayed until after the general election?
    Bercow's cunning plan hits the rocks if so.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    justin124 said:

    SNP MP Angus Macneil confirms he will not support the Swinson Bill.

    Interesting. With a big SNP rebellion the vote would be lost and no election.
  • I think a lot of leavers (and remainers) on the internet feel the need to be part of the narrative and feed the attack lines. In reality I think a lot of leaver’s honest position is like mine: Boris is the most useful vehicle available to deliver Brexit so I’ll vote to get him a strong Government. If he can win a few other votes lying then great.

    I’m looking forward to a future with a bit more choice.

    (For clarity I think a lot of remainers are putting up with shabby behaviour from “their side” too, in order to get what they want).

    I still wonder why Farage is silent! I have just checked his twitter and nothing. The Brexit supporting media have also switched Farage & TBP off. Something is afoot! :wink:
    Why play Daniel Sturridge up front when you have Salah, Mane and Firmino?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    stodge said:


    I don't know how racing survives at all when their town centre courses are worth a fortune as venues for combined retail parks and/or thousands of new houses.

    I may be wrong but in the light of my previous, I suspect Newton Abbot racecourse is in the flood plain of the Teign River and for all it is very well situated near the station, I can't help but feel that's a disadvantage to future development.

    Exeter is well outside the city on the top of Haldon Hill as I recall. Taunton is on the outskirts (Green Belt?) and Wincanton is in the middle of nowhere.

    Kempton Park (to the west of Kingston) has been the subject of development interest for quite a while. Greyhound tracks (Wimbledon, Walthamstow and others) have been closed and sold for redevelopment but racecourses aren't so straightforward.

    Sandown Park (Esher) is worth millions but has powerful friends in high places and Elmbridge BC would never grant permission for its redevelopment.


    Within 10 years, there will be a number of "land-swap" schemes that take the existing courses further away from population centres and allow the current courses to be built upon. It is a business opportunity I have considered following up myself.....
    It is not just race courses. Maidenhead golf club is just across the road from the railway station. The council paid the golf club millions to end their lease early. The golf club then found a new site in the green belt but not enough members voted for it (perhaps some of them are hoping the club is dissolved and they cash in). The council is hoping to build c2,000 homes on the site
    Negotiated a deal and then not enough members voted for it. Is the local MP (Mrs May) a member ?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    I think a lot of leavers (and remainers) on the internet feel the need to be part of the narrative and feed the attack lines. In reality I think a lot of leaver’s honest position is like mine: Boris is the most useful vehicle available to deliver Brexit so I’ll vote to get him a strong Government. If he can win a few other votes lying then great.

    I’m looking forward to a future with a bit more choice.

    (For clarity I think a lot of remainers are putting up with shabby behaviour from “their side” too, in order to get what they want).

    You're using Johnson to deliver Brexit.

    And Johnson is using Brexit to deliver himself.

    That works - everybody happy - so long as your eyes are open.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    stodge said:


    I don't know how racing survives at all when their town centre courses are worth a fortune as venues for combined retail parks and/or thousands of new houses.

    I may be wrong but in the light of my previous, I suspect Newton Abbot racecourse is in the flood plain of the Teign River and for all it is very well situated near the station, I can't help but feel that's a disadvantage to future development.

    Exeter is well outside the city on the top of Haldon Hill as I recall. Taunton is on the outskirts (Green Belt?) and Wincanton is in the middle of nowhere.

    Kempton Park (to the west of Kingston) has been the subject of development interest for quite a while. Greyhound tracks (Wimbledon, Walthamstow and others) have been closed and sold for redevelopment but racecourses aren't so straightforward.

    Sandown Park (Esher) is worth millions but has powerful friends in high places and Elmbridge BC would never grant permission for its redevelopment.


    Strangely Lincoln Racecourse is right on the edge of the city, 10 minutes walk from the city centre and although the stand is still there the course closed in 1964 and moved racing to Doncaster.

    It is very clearly a prime plot for building on, being close to large university developments at Brayford Pool and with thousands of new houses being built on the suburbs of the city. It is inside the ringroad and would seem obvious as a target. And yet it remains a very nice open space within which it is still possible to se the remains of the fences and hedges delineating the course.
    Chester racecourse has an outstanding location in the centre and on the Dee. I hope builders never get their hands on it.
  • kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    He didn't break it, he got outvoted, he had no choice and he did not consent to the extension.

    You can not hold somebody accountable for that which they did not consent to. If someone says they will remain a virgin until marriage then they get raped are they a liar? Of course not! They didn't consent!

    Boris didn't consent to the extension, he got outvoted by his opponents in Parliament who left him no choice in the matter, with opponents like Joanna Cherry MP even using the courts to make it abundantly clear that Boris had no say in the matter.
    That's all fine. But anyone with eyes and a brain new the PM would have to obey the law. So on saying "we're leaving come what may" he was lying. And in lying to the stupid encouraging others to propagate a lie that he knew was a lie
    It’s shrewd politics. No more and no less. He was saying what his supporters wanted

    Cynical, but good politics. And not a broken promise as such.
    I am sorry I dont agree. BJ cynically played Leavers and those of us astute enough to realise his nefarious misrepresentations were greated with hubris...
    I think a lot of leavers (and remainers) on the internet feel the need to be part of the narrative and feed the attack lines. In reality I think a lot of leaver’s honest position is like mine: Boris is the most useful vehicle available to deliver Brexit so I’ll vote to get him a strong Government. If he can win a few other votes lying then great.

    I’m looking forward to a future with a bit more choice.

    (For clarity I think a lot of remainers are putting up with shabby behaviour from “their side” too, in order to get what they want).
    I still wonder why Farage is silent! I have just checked his twitter and nothing. The Brexit supporting media have also switched Farage & TBP off. Something is afoot! :wink:
    Call me a cynic but I think we’re going to learn a lot about it the governance processes of the Brexit Party in the next few months as they fall out.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    FFsake Are those wonders in Westminster going to fuck this election holding business up too ?

    We're going to end up with No Deal on 30th January ……. >.>
  • justin124 said:

    SNP MP Angus Macneil confirms he will not support the Swinson Bill.

    Interesting. With a big SNP rebellion the vote would be lost and no election.
    And that would make them laughing stocks.

    Everyone knows they are joint sponsors and Angus MacNeil announced his rejection of it yesterday

    Blackford was 100% on for an early GE earlier today
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Zac does move to East Surrey, it will be interesting to see if the Tories simply give up on Richmond Park as a lost cause, and focus efforts elsewhere such as Wimbledon and Putney.

    I would have thought Zac's departure would increase the chance of a Conservative hold.

    I'm also struggling to see why the East Surrey Conservative Association would want Zac Goldsmith.
    Environment credentials..Gatwick flight path..stopping build on green belt..etc
  • kinabalu said:

    I think a lot of leavers (and remainers) on the internet feel the need to be part of the narrative and feed the attack lines. In reality I think a lot of leaver’s honest position is like mine: Boris is the most useful vehicle available to deliver Brexit so I’ll vote to get him a strong Government. If he can win a few other votes lying then great.

    I’m looking forward to a future with a bit more choice.

    (For clarity I think a lot of remainers are putting up with shabby behaviour from “their side” too, in order to get what they want).

    You're using Johnson to deliver Brexit.

    And Johnson is using Brexit to deliver himself.

    That works - everybody happy - so long as your eyes are open.
    Yes. It’s why it would have been handy to have an election after the deed was done. But such is life - the Tory Party won’t do anything too damaging in four years of majority rule.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is Eleanor Laing suddenly a cracking bet for Speaker? 14/1 at PP.

    If Parliament agrees an election tomorrow I'm wondering whether the Speaker election might be delayed until after the general election?
    Bercow's cunning plan hits the rocks if so.
    Bercow might have to have an "extension" until wrap up is complete? :D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Angus MacNeil is a total roaster. He is representative of nothing but his own idiocy.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Anorak said:
    That's funny but also pretty sad for what was once a proud working class party.
  • SunnyJim said:

    Anorak said:
    That's funny but also pretty sad for what was once a proud working class party.
    If this does see an early GE is labour facing disaster
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    The Tory party has already been far too indulgent to Goldsmith: he should be barred from doing a cowardly chicken-run to East Surrey. Stick and fight your current constituency.
  • So is Labour really going to abstain on the election or is Abbott's reported quote an indication that at least one person in the Labour Party has cojones?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    nunuone said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Freggles said:

    Not a fan of constituency polling? Finchley looking good for the yellow peril

    OK.

    1. UNS?

    Con hold by a massive margin

    2. Remainy?

    Extremely very

    3. Local elections?

    LD's on less than 10%, and lost their only seat in Barnet

    4. Squeezability?

    LDs are not seen as challengers and will struggle to get Labour switchers

    rcs1000 says... easy Con Hold as opposition vote is split
    On the other hand many liberal Jews wont Labour ever again
    I am one. Whether I come back to Labour largely depends on the Corbynistas being wiped from leadership.
  • If Labour isn’t there, then presumably today’s vote becomes a bit of a “show of force” for the vote tomorrow. If there’s clearly the numbers, and the LibDems/SNP agree that the amendments under discussion are wrecking amendments, then Labour may as well accept the Bill rather than fight it. Same goes for the independent Tories with a shot at readmission.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:


    No dishonesty. He sought a deal, he got a deal and if Parliament had voted for it we'd be out. Parliament voted against for the 4th time.

    He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.

    Your spinning really is heroic. Tell me, which of the following two statements is true?

    1. Boris promised, repeatedly and prominently, that we'd leave the EU on the 31st October, do-or-die, no ifs or buts, come what may.

    2, Boris promised he'd do his best to ensure we'd leave the EU on the 31st October.
    Politicos with an axe to grind heard 1.

    The voters heard 2.
    Yep. I am afraid that people like Richard Nabavi have been believing their own spin for too long. They have lost sight of how this is all playing out because they are so desperate for Johnson and Brexit to fail.
    Richard the clips of Boris pledging to die in a ditch or deliver Brexit do or die and then getting away scot free will be playing to History and Politics students for decades and will form an important part of the socio-political history of our period. It transcends the immediate electoral gain (which seems unambiguous in the case of Boris) and I believe has broader implications for our polity.

    My first post today was to make the observation of how surprised I was at the fact that Leavers don't care that he lied but reading the comments of the folk on here, not all stupid, illiterate fools, apparently, has been extremely interesting and quite eye-opening.
    It is a combination of two factors.

    1. As far as many of us are concerned every politician is lying every time they open their mouths. It is a defining feature. On that basis Johnson is no better and no worse than the other 649 MPs elected to Parliament.

    2. It is clear that the fault for our failure to leave lies not with Johnson but with those who came up with the clever little ruse of voting down everything no matter whether they had previously said they would support it or not. A majority of MPs want to stop Brexit but they have always been too cowardly to do it openly for fear of retribution at the ballot box. This latest ploy of holding Boris captive by refusing to accept anything he suggests but also refusing a GE has finally exposed them to the public, which is why Johnson is not, and I suspect will not be, suffering any polling consequences of us not leaving on 31st.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    I didn't think she had it in her.

    You tell 'em Di.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Yes. It’s why it would have been handy to have an election after the deed was done. But such is life - the Tory Party won’t do anything too damaging in four years of majority rule.

    Is that a promise?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    I honestly think the risk of "No Deal" at the end of January is a real one if we don't have an election (Or bill passed) before then.
    The EU really doesn't fear a "No Deal" as much as many on the remain side think they do.

    Macron will veto if we hit the end of January without doing SOMETHING.
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes. It’s why it would have been handy to have an election after the deed was done. But such is life - the Tory Party won’t do anything too damaging in four years of majority rule.

    Is that a promise?
    Our definition of “too damaging” may differ....
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited October 2019
    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    timmo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    If Zac does move to East Surrey, it will be interesting to see if the Tories simply give up on Richmond Park as a lost cause, and focus efforts elsewhere such as Wimbledon and Putney.

    I would have thought Zac's departure would increase the chance of a Conservative hold.

    I'm also struggling to see why the East Surrey Conservative Association would want Zac Goldsmith.
    Environment credentials..Gatwick flight path..stopping build on green belt..etc
    Yes. I think Richmond Park is anti Brexit and therefore anti Tory rather than anti Zac. He has a very efficient office operation and I suspect a non-trivial personal vote. I don't think his departure would increase the chance of a Tory win. The contrary.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I honestly think the risk of "No Deal" at the end of January is a real one if we don't have an election (Or bill passed) before then.
    The EU really doesn't fear a "No Deal" as much as many on the remain side think they do.

    Macron will veto if we hit the end of January without doing SOMETHING.

    Why shouldn't he?
  • PaulM said:

    stodge said:


    I don't know how racing survives at all when their town centre courses are worth a fortune as venues for combined retail parks and/or thousands of new houses.

    I may be wrong but in the light of my previous, I suspect Newton Abbot racecourse is in the flood plain of the Teign River and for all it is very well situated near the station, I can't help but feel that's a disadvantage to future development.

    Exeter is well outside the city on the top of Haldon Hill as I recall. Taunton is on the outskirts (Green Belt?) and Wincanton is in the middle of nowhere.

    Kempton Park (to the west of Kingston) has been the subject of development interest for quite a while. Greyhound tracks (Wimbledon, Walthamstow and others) have been closed and sold for redevelopment but racecourses aren't so straightforward.

    Sandown Park (Esher) is worth millions but has powerful friends in high places and Elmbridge BC would never grant permission for its redevelopment.


    Within 10 years, there will be a number of "land-swap" schemes that take the existing courses further away from population centres and allow the current courses to be built upon. It is a business opportunity I have considered following up myself.....
    It is not just race courses. Maidenhead golf club is just across the road from the railway station. The council paid the golf club millions to end their lease early. The golf club then found a new site in the green belt but not enough members voted for it (perhaps some of them are hoping the club is dissolved and they cash in). The council is hoping to build c2,000 homes on the site
    Negotiated a deal and then not enough members voted for it. Is the local MP (Mrs May) a member ?
    Haha. They needed a massive 75% of members to vote in favour and got 72% so not far off.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Bozo has accepted the extension . Letter on its way .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    nico67 said:

    Bozo has accepted the extension . Letter on its way .

    But, but, but... the ditch?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    rkrkrk said:

    If it's leaver bias, then Boris is okay.
    His worry is if Brexit party supporters don't believe he gave it his all.

    Yes, and I reckon he's cracked it. They think he's Proper Leave. If he gets his Dec election - as it looks like he will - I struggle to see any result apart from big Tory win. All I can do to mitigate the downer is at least make some money on the betting. Need to drop the Mr Gloomy persona, though, because I am supposed to be doing some canvassing for Labour. No-one wants to see a misery guts on their doorstep.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    And this is why it will make no difference.

    The people who actually were bothered by the promise one way or another were either the extreme pro Brexiteers or the extreme anti Brexiteers.

    The latter lot were never going to be voting for Boris and Brexit anyway. Not in a million years.

    So the only way this broken promise changes anything is if the extreme leavers are moved to vote against Boris because of it. But it is clear that for whatever reason - and kinabalu claims this is Leaver bias - Leavers are not exercised by the broken promise. They see it for what it is which is a desperate ploy by Remainers to force Boris to break his promise. They are not going to blame Boris for that. Particularly not when he has delivered a workable Deal that they can live with.

    So the Remainer clever games have - predictably - failed. And all they are left with is spluttering outrage and pointing fingers. Promise… broken... liar... broken … promise.

    The have completely failed to miss the fact that they are the only ones remotely bothered.
  • Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    Absolutely 100% agreed!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Bozo has accepted the extension . Letter on its way .

    But, but, but... the ditch?

    We’re blessed with a few more months of EU membership. Off to play Ode to Joy .

  • What a humilation for Corbyn and his mps

    This is dreadful optics for labour
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    Absolutely 100% agreed!
    I don't remember the headbangers giving David Cameron such leeway after he gave a cast-iron guarantee.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1188840109208227841

    So, those who have actually fought an election or two, are very worried. Those who haven't can't wait for it.

    Hmmm.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Pulpstar said:

    I honestly think the risk of "No Deal" at the end of January is a real one if we don't have an election (Or bill passed) before then.
    The EU really doesn't fear a "No Deal" as much as many on the remain side think they do.

    Macron will veto if we hit the end of January without doing SOMETHING.

    It’s easier for all sides to continue to kick the can.

    They’ll just continue to get ever more exasperated about it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    The difference with Johnson is that it was obvious when he was making his pledge, and when he was continuing to make his pledge, that he did not have the numbers behind him to deliver on his pledge.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    SunnyJim said:

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    I didn't think she had it in her.

    You tell 'em Di.
    I thought it was Abbott who was told to fuck off by Jess Philips, and she did. Allegedly P-) .


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Pulpstar said:

    I honestly think the risk of "No Deal" at the end of January is a real one if we don't have an election (Or bill passed) before then.
    The EU really doesn't fear a "No Deal" as much as many on the remain side think they do.

    Macron will veto if we hit the end of January without doing SOMETHING.

    It’s easier for all sides to continue to kick the can.

    They’ll just continue to get ever more exasperated about it.
    When we run up against the budget discussions then kicking the can becomes harder, unless the UK government is willing to pay up without making a political issue of it.
  • SOMETHING SOMETHING DITCH SOMETHING OH JEREMEY CORBYN
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    The difference with Johnson is that it was obvious when he was making his pledge, and when he was continuing to make his pledge, that he did not have the numbers behind him to deliver on his pledge.
    That isn't true. It looked like the numbers were there for a deal that resolved the main issues from May's deal (particularly lack of consent from NI and the UK being trapped in the backstop).
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    Absolutely 100% agreed!
    I don't remember the headbangers giving David Cameron such leeway after he gave a cast-iron guarantee.
    And those headbangers were either idiots or playing the exact misrepresentation game being done by Remainers now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019
    Really? It seems petulant and childish to me, as though he's a schoolboy complaining that the big boys made him do it, and he seems to be blaming the EU for the fact that he hasn't got support in parliament.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    He found the Quink this time. Still, it puts to bed those stupid arguments that the weaker-minded Leavers favoured that suggested he hadn't actually sent the previous one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354

    SOMETHING SOMETHING DITCH SOMETHING OH JEREMEY CORBYN

    JEREMEH CORBYN perhaps?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Watching parliament debate - good grief, Corbyn is shocking.
  • Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    The difference with Johnson is that it was obvious when he was making his pledge, and when he was continuing to make his pledge, that he did not have the numbers behind him to deliver on his pledge.
    The problem is that without the pledge and without trying to deliver on the pledge the extent of the problem would not have been realised or able to be fixed.

    If Johnson had never made the pledge but instead said we need an election first then his opponents would just have said you have a majority in Parliament with the DUP, just get it done yourselves you don't need an election.

    Even if Johnson had gotten through the election and won a majority he would still have had undemocratic bastards like Grieve in the party who could have blocked him despite winning a majority.

    Only by acting as he has done has the true scale of the problem been flushed out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    Absolutely 100% agreed!
    I don't remember the headbangers giving David Cameron such leeway after he gave a cast-iron guarantee.
    And those headbangers were either idiots or playing the exact misrepresentation game being done by Remainers now.
    I rather think you were among their number. Under a different name, of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited October 2019
    They won't, Remainers are shifting LD over Corbyn Labour while the Leaver voter is uniting behind the Tories.

    Plus clearly only a Tory majority after a general election can now deliver Brexit
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    BJ thinks Parliament has run its course since 2017. That must mean the referendum result has run its course since 2016. It was unworkable - he voted against it twice. So move on.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    MPs certainly sound like they are about to be let out and start fighting a nasty GE.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Stocky said:

    Watching parliament debate - good grief, Corbyn is shocking.

    Not surprising given the reports of rows and swearing at the shadow cabinet meeting.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited October 2019
    SunnyJim said:

    Diane Abbot indulging her inner Cummings:

    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1188844371598368770

    I didn't think she had it in her.

    You tell 'em Di.
    My sources tell me we're in the magic mushroom season so all those who want to see Jeremy and Diana as they have never seen them before time to get picking.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Conservatives and Lib Dems had plenty of things they pledged to do in 2010 and half of them did not happen. Why? They did not have a majority and other parties blocked them. The same goes for promises from every President with an opposition Congress.

    Let us cut the crap. It can help.

    It's like this -

    He made a massively high octane personal promise in order to become PM.

    He has broken it.

    You say that's no biggie, least he had a bash.

    That, I submit, is Leaver bias. That's a prime case of Leaver bias right there.
    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.
    Absolutely 100% agreed!
    I don't remember the headbangers giving David Cameron such leeway after he gave a cast-iron guarantee.
    And those headbangers were either idiots or playing the exact misrepresentation game being done by Remainers now.
    I rather think you were among their number. Under a different name, of course.
    Forgotten your meds today I see.
  • Really? It seems petulant and childish to me, as though he's a schoolboy complaining that the big boys made him do it, and he seems to be blaming the EU for the fact that he hasn't got support in parliament.
    That's because you've misunderstood the politics since Boris was elected.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    John Mann has now left the House of Commons. Does that mean that the number of votes needed tonight is reduced from 434 to 433?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Bozo has accepted the extension . Letter on its way .

    But, but, but... the ditch?

    We’re blessed with a few more months of EU membership. Off to play Ode to Joy .

    Hopefully just two.
  • This is the best advert to get rid of them - embarrassing, shameful, desperate, and hopefully the end
  • Really? It seems petulant and childish to me, as though he's a schoolboy complaining that the big boys made him do it, and he seems to be blaming the EU for the fact that he hasn't got support in parliament.
    That's because you've misunderstood the politics since Boris was elected.
    Ah, you mean it is intentionally childish and petulant. Yes, I think you are right on that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    AndyJS said:

    John Mann has now left the House of Commons. Does that mean that the number of votes needed tonight is reduced from 434 to 433?

    Is Vaz suspended ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889

    This is the best advert to get rid of them - embarrassing, shameful, desperate, and hopefully the end

    Labour or the whole of the commons ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    AndyJS said:

    John Mann has now left the House of Commons. Does that mean that the number of votes needed tonight is reduced from 434 to 433?

    I think it needs to be >= (650 * 0.666666666666) regardless of vacants/speakers/tellers/terrorists not turning up.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    HYUFD said:

    They won't, Remainers are shifting LD over Corbyn Labour while the Leaver voter is uniting behind the Tories.

    Plus clearly only a Tory majority after a general election can now deliver Brexit
    If enough Remain voters coalesce around the Lib Dems, it could be disastrous for the Tories, and they won’t make up enough of the losses in Labour areas.
  • Pulpstar said:

    This is the best advert to get rid of them - embarrassing, shameful, desperate, and hopefully the end

    Labour or the whole of the commons ?
    Labour but yes the rest
  • AndyJS said:

    John Mann has now left the House of Commons. Does that mean that the number of votes needed tonight is reduced from 434 to 433?

    No, it's two-thirds of the House, including vacant seats. Which seems odd, but that's what it says.
  • Really? It seems petulant and childish to me, as though he's a schoolboy complaining that the big boys made him do it, and he seems to be blaming the EU for the fact that he hasn't got support in parliament.
    That's because you've misunderstood the politics since Boris was elected.
    Indeed. Once again it’s good politics. You can’t attack him for the letter without highlighting its contents, and that hammers home his lines. Since we know his lines are working, the attack is therefore a bit pointless.

    I don’t think any of us here particularly buy into his narrative (we have our own, fixed, views) but we’re not the target.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,792

    Really? It seems petulant and childish to me, as though he's a schoolboy complaining that the big boys made him do it, and he seems to be blaming the EU for the fact that he hasn't got support in parliament.
    That's because you've misunderstood the politics since Boris was elected.
    Ah, you mean it is intentionally childish and petulant. Yes, I think you are right on that.
    Well, he's playing to his strengths... :)

    I'll get me coat
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    It's like this -

    All politicians make promises in election campaigns. None of them couch them in language of caveats. It is widely accepted those promises are contingent on the degree of political control they win.

    When politicians fail to achieve them, the voters hold it against them when it is their fault and don't hold it against them if it is thwarted by others.

    You say Boris should uniquely be held to a standard where he has to make caveats other politicians never had.

    That, I submit, is anti-Brexit bias. That's a prime case of anti-Brexit bias right there.

    Oh no (!) not the templating thing. And you're wrong. I am being objective. I've pressed my special button.

    It's like THIS -

    Should Boris be politically crucified for breaking his totemic promise? No - he is not entirely without excuses.

    Should Boris avoid any serious political damage for breaking his totemic promise? No way - having excuses does not and should not buy you that in big ticket politics. Not for a pledge as high profile and personal and influential as this one.

    If in doubt ask Nick Clegg.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    I think this election is wide open and could easily go wrong for Con but what other choice do they have?

    What I do think though is that at the end we'll have a decisive result.

    The country is sick of this impasse and will swing decisively one way or another IMO...

    A majority for someone? But who?
  • Can't believe I'm saying this but well said John Redwood.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,354
    That Boris letter:

    Donald,

    FFS.... Sorry, surrounded by idiots who couldn't choose a tart in a knocking shop if they only had 5 minutes before their cock dropped off.

    If I come back again, tell me to fuck off. Please?

    Ta muchly,

    Boris.
  • GIN1138 said:

    I think this election is wide open and easily go wrong for Con but what other choice do they have?

    What I do think though is that at the end we'll have a decisive result.

    The country is sick of this impasse and will swing decisively one way or another IMO...

    A majority for someone? But who?
    I am with you Gin
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,264
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    They won't, Remainers are shifting LD over Corbyn Labour while the Leaver voter is uniting behind the Tories.

    Plus clearly only a Tory majority after a general election can now deliver Brexit
    If enough Remain voters coalesce around the Lib Dems, it could be disastrous for the Tories, and they won’t make up enough of the losses in Labour areas.
    It would need the LDs to get to 30% plus and the Labour vote to collapse to under 20% for the LDs to start taking more Tory seats than the Tories gain off Labour thanks to a rising LD vote from Labour under FPTP.

    Little chance of that this time and indeed a rising LD vote could even see the Tories gain seats like Brentford and Isleworth I was campaigning in on Saturday which the Tories won in 2010 with a LD vote over 20% but lost in 2015 and 2017 with a LD vote under 10%
  • GIN1138 said:

    I think this election is wide open and easily go wrong for Con but what other choice do they have?

    What I do think though is that at the end we'll have a decisive result.

    The country is sick of this impasse and will swing decisively one way or another IMO...

    A majority for someone? But who?
    The saying is the country gets the government it deserves. One way or another that needs to happen, it is ridiculous to have a Parliament that does not allow a government to govern, but does not allow the public to choose either.
  • Can't believe I'm saying this but well said John Redwood.

    What did he say?
This discussion has been closed.