I wonder if williamglenn could lose his bet by 1 hour although it could be best considered a gentleman's draw?
If there is an early Dec election then it gives time to pass the deal before Christmas and we leave at 23:00 on 31/12/19.
If we leave at midnight, who won?
If we leave at 1am on New Year’s Day I win a bet I placed with Ladbrokes almost two years ago.
Why would we leave at 1am?
Could be delayed into the night for similar logistical reasons that the clock go back at 2am, not midnight. EU may also want a departure time to be legally clear and unambiguous.
Last time I'm going to flog this dead horse, but I still maintain that the LDs' chances of getting a big increase in seats relied on the Tories being in a very weakened state: both because most of their prospects for gains are held by the Tories, but also because the appeal for soft Labour voters to go LD relied on the Tories looking absolutely screwed (as they did, briefly, round the time of the European elections) making it "safe" for people who can't stand the Tories to vote for their first preference.
There is a small (but real) chance that the LDs significantly outperform expectations, and therefore the seat spread has to be above the midpoint.
You might as well say there's a chance they will underperform expectations, and therefore you should sell. The question is whether expectations are too high, too low or just right.
I guess I wasn't being very articulate.
What I was trying to say was that there's perhaps a 5% chance they get 100 seats plus. When you are working out the right price for the spread, you should do it something like this:
1% chance of 300 seats 5% chance of 100 seats 15% chance of 60 seats ... 5% chance of 5 seats
etc.
And then you add it all up. This means that the most likely (or even the fiftieth percentile) seat number could be very different from the right price for the spread.
So you're thinking in terms of "expectations" being perhaps the mode or the median, whereas the correct answer is the mean?
I agree the correct answer is the mean, but is there any reason to think the spreads don't already reflect that?
Yes, expectations are - I would reckon - the median (or fiftieth percentile).
And I would agree the spreads do capture the mean better than regular expectations. Expectations for BXP seats (on a simple over/under) is probably 0.5. Yet they're trading at 3-5.
They are embroiled in internal conflict in their key target seats of Ynys Mon, Cardiff West and Llanelli.
Despite the view from leafy pb.com-shire, the PC/LibDem Remain alliance is likely to be unpopular in most of Wales, and is likely to alienate a goodish chunk of the PC voters.
PC will go backwards at this election.
Cardiff West last time had Plaid in third with less than 10% of the vote, and Labour with 56%. .
Wonder whether Ceredigion is a seat where the LibDems would be worried about the students at Aberwystwth going home for Christmas.
I understand that, but the Assembly election in Cardiff West in 2016 was much closer.
Labour 11,381 Plaid Cymru 10,205
That is why it is a Plaid Cymru target seat.
Wouldn't that suggest it was also a target seat in 2017 ?
I am not trying to make any judgment, other than simply reporting what Plaid Cymru *think* their target seats are, and noting that Plaid Cymru are in disarray in all of them.
In Cardiff West, the candidate who did so well is currently suspended.
In Ynys Mon, there is an argument over a candidate who was parachuted in by the leadership. In Llanelli, there are suspension, and a splinter nationalist candidate standing.
And so, as a public service, I am suggesting out that OGH should not be buying PC at 4.5 on the spreads.
Obliged, and I agree. Would you advocate selling at 4 then ?
I wonder whether Labour will end their misery and vote for an election today, rather than waiting for the LDs and SNP to do it for them tomorrow.
Well, yes, they'll look daft if they stick to the "take No Deal off the table" line on the same day that the EU granted an extension.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48 hours?
I wonder if williamglenn could lose his bet by 1 hour although it could be best considered a gentleman's draw?
If there is an early Dec election then it gives time to pass the deal before Christmas and we leave at 23:00 on 31/12/19.
If we leave at midnight, who won?
If we leave at 1am on New Year’s Day I win a bet I placed with Ladbrokes almost two years ago.
Why would we leave at 1am?
Could be delayed into the night for similar logistical reasons that the clock go back at 2am, not midnight. EU may also want a departure time to be legally clear and unambiguous.
There is a small (but real) chance that the LDs significantly outperform expectations, and therefore the seat spread has to be above the midpoint.
You might as well say there's a chance they will underperform expectations, and therefore you should sell. The question is whether expectations are too high, too low or just right.
I guess I wasn't being very articulate.
What I was trying to say was that there's perhaps a 5% chance they get 100 seats plus. When you are working out the right price for the spread, you should do it something like this:
1% chance of 300 seats 5% chance of 100 seats 15% chance of 60 seats ... 5% chance of 5 seats
etc.
And then you add it all up. This means that the most likely (or even the fiftieth percentile) seat number could be very different from the right price for the spread.
So you're thinking in terms of "expectations" being perhaps the mode or the median, whereas the correct answer is the mean?
I agree the correct answer is the mean, but is there any reason to think the spreads don't already reflect that?
Yes, expectations are - I would reckon - the median (or fiftieth percentile).
And I would agree the spreads do capture the mean better than regular expectations. Expectations for BXP seats (on a simple over/under) is probably 0.5. Yet they're trading at 3-5.
I have to say your terminology is confusing, because to any mathematician, "expectation" means the mean, not the median.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
Looking back, the People's Vote campaign's biggest mistake was the name they chose. It implied the previous referendum was somehow not a people's vote which a lot of voters found rather offensive.
I wonder whether Labour will end their misery and vote for an election today, rather than waiting for the LDs and SNP to do it for them tomorrow.
Well, yes, they'll look daft if they stick to the "take No Deal off the table" line on the same day that the EU granted an extension.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48
hours?
The deeprooted anger is still there from Labour activists towards the Lib Dems for enabling the coalition in 2010. It is visceral and has been masked recently by the brexit coming and goings. This is going to get very nasty
I wonder if williamglenn could lose his bet by 1 hour although it could be best considered a gentleman's draw?
If there is an early Dec election then it gives time to pass the deal before Christmas and we leave at 23:00 on 31/12/19.
If we leave at midnight, who won?
If we leave at 1am on New Year’s Day I win a bet I placed with Ladbrokes almost two years ago.
Why would we leave at 1am?
Could be delayed into the night for similar logistical reasons that the clock go back at 2am, not midnight. EU may also want a departure time to be legally clear and unambiguous.
Midnight in Brussels seems sensible.
Midnight in Brussels? Sounds like a 1950s musical to me.
There is a small (but real) chance that the LDs significantly outperform expectations, and therefore the seat spread has to be above the midpoint.
You might as well say there's a chance they will underperform expectations, and therefore you should sell. The question is whether expectations are too high, too low or just right.
I guess I wasn't being very articulate.
What I was trying to say was that there's perhaps a 5% chance they get 100 seats plus. When you are working out the right price for the spread, you should do it something like this:
1% chance of 300 seats 5% chance of 100 seats 15% chance of 60 seats ... 5% chance of 5 seats
etc.
And then you add it all up. This means that the most likely (or even the fiftieth percentile) seat number could be very different from the right price for the spread.
Am I thinking you are on your hols/work in the UK given this nocturnal posting?
No. There's a big fire near where I live, and two families had to evacuate their houses at 3am and we've put them up.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
It was the most high profile, unconditional, personal political promise made by a British politician in living memory and he broke it. Yet, I agree, he appears to be getting away with it at this point. This is why IMO the Benn Act was a mistake - it provided an excuse for him to hide behind - and why a 2019 election is an even bigger mistake. Much better - if the objective is to spike the Boris Johnson project - to fight the Deal and block a GE, trap him, take the impasse into the spring of 2020, see how the public feel then about a PM who has lamentably failed to meet his pledge to get Brexit done by a date that is now well in the past, has refused to resign, and seems to be serving no useful purpose.
It is this sort of childish fricking games that makes people so angry at politicians. The whole strategy of the Remain opposition is to keep a major international negotiation in stasis for another four months and counting, purely to try to electorally hurt your political rivals. It is pathetic and deplorable.
Remainers had a credible case for delay when we were staring down No Deal. But Boris did his part and got a deal that clearly can get the support of parliament as long as there's not game playing. If the only reason there is a further delay is game playing by the anti-Boris factions, then people will rightly blame them and not him.
It was a Tory deal. Labour want a Labour deal. That is what Labour is there to do - agitate to become the government that makes the deals. They are not there to rubber stamp deals made by the Conservative Party.
Except the post I was responding to didn't talk about desired changes to a deal. It talked about refusing to do anything for 4 to 6 months to hurt Johnson. If Labour are so utterly partisan they will refuse to back any deal negotiated by the Conservatives, then they should support a change of government as soon as possible and vote for an election.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
Can anyone explain the reason for the Tories arguing for the 12th and the Libs the 9th? I assume the 12th means less students at University (though many will have left by the 9th) and I assume the Libs would prefer an election closer to Trump's visit for the NATO summit to associate him with Boris (though equally this may help Boris look statesmanlike in the run-up).
Despite being uncertain about the effects of the date on Lib/Con I can't help but think a Monday election would be really bad for Labour, you sense beyond the core support their vote is incredibly soft and a cold, dark miserable Monday could lead to a huge amount of their usual turnout staying at home.
The lib dems I have been speaking to honestly believe they are on the verge of something monumental...just saying
I know and they did say the same thing right up to voting at the Euros where they, in fact, polled 20% give or take and 16 seats. Superb result but perhaps not 'monumental.'
I think LibDems will do really well and a lot of their vote will be targetted. Across southern Britain we could see some huge movement.
In general though, and I know this is not very exciting, in terms of results I don't think the election will be that seismically different from last time.
It is this sort of childish fricking games that makes people so angry at politicians. The whole strategy of the Remain opposition is to keep a major international negotiation in stasis for another four months and counting, purely to try to electorally hurt your political rivals. It is pathetic and deplorable.
Remainers had a credible case for delay when we were staring down No Deal. But Boris did his part and got a deal that clearly can get the support of parliament as long as there's not game playing. If the only reason there is a further delay is game playing by the anti-Boris factions, then people will rightly blame them and not him.
In true ardent Leaver fashion you are failing to recognize the symmetry of shame. Because the 'cynical games' charge is equally valid against Johnson/Cummings. They are not engaged in sorting out Brexit (give me a break) they are bearing down on one thing and one thing only - achieving a GE majority for Johnson. This is step 2 of the Boris Johnson Project - step 1 (bring down May and replace with yours truly) having been achieved - and they need to do it before the gloss wears off and the tawdry underlying reality is revealed.
Interesting that the Betfair Exchange figures for a December general election have now moved to an implied probability of about 64%.
That's a pretty big shift in the space of 48 hours.
I think it's because Swinson is saying that the LibDems are minded to support a Government One-line Bill tomorrow if the FTPA attempt fails today, if it is essentially the same as the proposal that she made yesterday. Tories + LibDems + SNP would give a majority for that.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
Can anyone explain the reason for the Tories arguing for the 12th and the Libs the 9th? I assume the 12th means less students at University (though many will have left by the 9th) and I assume the Libs would prefer an election closer to Trump's visit for the NATO summit to associate him with Boris (though equally this may help Boris look statesmanlike in the run-up).
Despite being uncertain about the effects of the date on Lib/Con I can't help but think a Monday election would be really bad for Labour, you sense beyond the core support their vote is incredibly soft and a cold, dark miserable Monday could lead to a huge amount of their usual turnout staying at home.
The 9th means that Johnson's WAB falls (for now). The 12th means it's still in play.
In other words, one means no Brexit before the election, the other leaves the possibility.
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
I wonder whether Labour will end their misery and vote for an election today, rather than waiting for the LDs and SNP to do it for them tomorrow.
Well, yes, they'll look daft if they stick to the "take No Deal off the table" line on the same day that the EU granted an extension.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48
hours?
The deeprooted anger is still there from Labour activists towards the Lib Dems for enabling the coalition in 2010. It is visceral and has been masked recently by the brexit coming and goings. This is going to get very nasty
I oscillate between Labour & LibDem, and I could never understand that anger. It wasn't as if Labour+LibDem could have got across the line, and, due to the shenanigans in the Labour Party at the time, little chance of Labour providing a government. Further, there was a credible threat off a serious run on the pound, IIRC.
It is this sort of childish fricking games that makes people so angry at politicians. The whole strategy of the Remain opposition is to keep a major international negotiation in stasis for another four months and counting, purely to try to electorally hurt your political rivals. It is pathetic and deplorable.
Remainers had a credible case for delay when we were staring down No Deal. But Boris did his part and got a deal that clearly can get the support of parliament as long as there's not game playing. If the only reason there is a further delay is game playing by the anti-Boris factions, then people will rightly blame them and not him.
In true ardent Leaver fashion you are failing to recognize the symmetry of shame. Because the 'cynical games' charge is equally valid against Johnson/Cummings. They are not engaged in sorting out Brexit (give me a break) they are bearing down on one thing and one thing only - achieving a GE majority for Johnson. This is step 2 of the Boris Johnson Project - step 1 (bring down May and replace with yours truly) having been achieved - and they need to do it before the gloss wears off and the tawdry underlying reality is revealed.
I have recognised the symmetry of shame many times. I was very critical of the Boris games, prorogation etc. But now Boris has done his part and got a Deal. The ball is in Remainer courts now, and they are now the ones taking it home in a tantrum.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
Sam Gymiah has a majority of 23,914 in East Surrey. I wonder if Zac can lose that to a LibDem. He lost his majority of 23,015 in Richmond Park to Sarah Olney (majority 1,872) in the Richmond Park by election in 2016 so he certainly has the talent to do so.
I wonder whether Labour will end their misery and vote for an election today, rather than waiting for the LDs and SNP to do it for them tomorrow.
Well, yes, they'll look daft if they stick to the "take No Deal off the table" line on the same day that the EU granted an extension.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48
hours?
The deeprooted anger is still there from Labour activists towards the Lib Dems for enabling the coalition in 2010. It is visceral and has been masked recently by the brexit coming and goings. This is going to get very nasty
I oscillate between Labour & LibDem, and I could never understand that anger. It wasn't as if Labour+LibDem could have got across the line, and, due to the shenanigans in the Labour Party at the time, little chance of Labour providing a government. Further, there was a credible threat off a serious run on the pound, IIRC.
You're not expecting Corbynistas to temper their views because of reality, are you?
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
Isn't he going to have to put a Statutory Instrument in front of the Commons in the next few days, formalising the change in the Brexit date?
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
Sam Gymiah has a majority of 23,914 in East Surrey. I wonder if Zac can lose that to a LibDem. He lost his majority of 23,015 in Richmond Park to Sarah Olney (majority 1,872) in the Richmond Park by election in 2016 so he certainly has the talent to do so.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
Isn't he going to have to put a Statutory Instrument in front of the Commons in the next few days, formalising the change in the Brexit date?
I don't think so, I think it might be automatic now following a change in the law earlier in the year. and/or in the Benn Act. Certainly by international law the date will have already changed by then.
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
Sam Gymiah has a majority of 23,914 in East Surrey. I wonder if Zac can lose that to a LibDem. He lost his majority of 23,015 in Richmond Park to Sarah Olney (majority 1,872) in the Richmond Park by election in 2016 so he certainly has the talent to do so.
Surrey is certainly in a Yellow mood ...
The southern half of it probably is. Runnymede and Spelthorne are a lot more Brexity.
Remarkable that Lab at 210 are not a bargain buy, even in 1983 they got 209
Now that's an example of good head-over-heart betting.
At least, I think it is
My view on this is that the Labour vote will not implode as much as some seem to think it will.
p.s. I think I slightly misread your post. I thought you were saying it should be better value?
Labour 200-249 Ladbrokes 15/8 Labour 250-299 Ladbrokes 5/1
Those two look like good bets to me.
250-299 @ 5/1 looks poor value unless you're actually backing the LDs to flop and the Tories to lose some seats to labour.
That's a non-sequitur
I'm expecting the LibDems to cut through in Tory England, the Labour heartlands to remain relatively untouched.
Corbyn secured 262 last time.
That is at odds with all the polling we have seen for Midlands and the North and also suggests the LDs will take no seats off Labour (I expect them to win hallam, leeds northwest, cambridge etc).
Labour have 15 seats with less than 1,000 majority over the Tories. With Lib Dems on the rise surely those seats will go blue unless The Brexit Party have a big polling surge.
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
Because if they play Johnson's game, the WAB can still potentially go through before dissolution, although it's probably unlikely. Johnson can also shift the date to anytime he wants under the FTPA, which is more dangerous.
If they vote for the one-line bill tomorrow then the date is fixed by law and cannot be altered. If it's the 9th December then the WAB falls, for now.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
He made a pledge dishonestly, in full knowledge that the Commons would not support leaving without a deal on October 31st, or without sufficient time to scrutinise a deal.
From the beginning it's been to set up this general election.
Are you not at all nervous about his next bit of dishonesty? What do you think he might be promising now that he knows he can't deliver?
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
I have just been looking at Labour Majorities in london and a lot of them are vast. In some seats where you would think the Lib dems may have a sniff they polled in the hundreds last time versus majs of 30k
Yes it's in the peripheries and West Country that the LDs have the best prospects. London itself is pretty solidly Labour.
Other than St Ives, I would have thought the West Country would be far from easy territory for the libdems.
Cheltenham? Wells? Bath? Even the Cotswolds if its Blimpish MP cooperates.
I think they'll do OK, but it's outer London and surrounds that offer most chances.
Bath is a good call.
I'm not sure the Cotswolds count as the West Country
The Lib Dems already hold Bath...
I'm not sure even the most LD-sceptic is predicting them to lose seats they already hold (except North Norfolk if Norman Lamb is standing down?).
In terms of gains, I'd only say they're favourites in Sheffield Hallam, Richmond Park and Cheltenham. Maybe St Albans and Lewes at a push. I think St Ives will be a tough nut to crack, despite the small majority.
There is talk of Zac Goldsmith moving to Sam Gymiahs seat
Sam Gymiah has a majority of 23,914 in East Surrey. I wonder if Zac can lose that to a LibDem. He lost his majority of 23,015 in Richmond Park to Sarah Olney (majority 1,872) in the Richmond Park by election in 2016 so he certainly has the talent to do so.
Surrey is certainly in a Yellow mood ...
The southern half of it probably is. Runnymede and Spelthorne are a lot more Brexity.
Guildford I'm sure will go LibDem. Woking might too.
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
He made a pledge dishonestly, in full knowledge that the Commons would not support leaving without a deal on October 31st, or without sufficient time to scrutinise a deal.
From the beginning it's been to set up this general election.
Are you not at all nervous about his next bit of dishonesty? What do you think he might be promising now that he knows he can't deliver?
Politicians make pledges to do things in election campaigns all the time and are then stopped in office. Obama promised to close down Guantanamo Bay. No one held it against him because he did everything in his power to.
A punter paying the spread so many times is manna from heaven for Sporting Index, especially when their trades align exactly with their political views.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
It was the most high profile, unconditional, personal political promise made by a British politician in living memory and he broke it. Yet, I agree, he appears to be getting away with it at this point. This is why IMO the Benn Act was a mistake - it provided an excuse for him to hide behind - and why a 2019 election is an even bigger mistake. Much better - if the objective is to spike the Boris Johnson project - to fight the Deal and block a GE, trap him, take the impasse into the spring of 2020, see how the public feel then about a PM who has lamentably failed to meet his pledge to get Brexit done by a date that is now well in the past, has refused to resign, and seems to be serving no useful purpose.
It is this sort of childish fricking games that makes people so angry at politicians. The whole strategy of the Remain opposition is to keep a major international negotiation in stasis for another four months and counting, purely to try to electorally hurt your political rivals. It is pathetic and deplorable.
Remainers had a credible case for delay when we were staring down No Deal. But Boris did his part and got a deal that clearly can get the support of parliament as long as there's not game playing. If the only reason there is a further delay is game playing by the anti-Boris factions, then people will rightly blame them and not him.
It was a Tory deal. Labour want a Labour deal. That is what Labour is there to do - agitate to become the government that makes the deals. They are not there to rubber stamp deals made by the Conservative Party.
Except the post I was responding to didn't talk about desired changes to a deal. It talked about refusing to do anything for 4 to 6 months to hurt Johnson. If Labour are so utterly partisan they will refuse to back any deal negotiated by the Conservatives, then they should support a change of government as soon as possible and vote for an election.
Yes I know. But they will lose as things stand so they are refusing to have an election. Which again, is part of their remit to maximise their chances of gaining power. At some stage.
There is a small (but real) chance that the LDs significantly outperform expectations, and therefore the seat spread has to be above the midpoint.
You might as well say there's a chance they will underperform expectations, and therefore you should sell. The question is whether expectations are too high, too low or just right.
I guess I wasn't being very articulate.
What I was trying to say was that there's perhaps a 5% chance they get 100 seats plus. When you are working out the right price for the spread, you should do it something like this:
1% chance of 300 seats 5% chance of 100 seats 15% chance of 60 seats ... 5% chance of 5 seats
etc.
And then you add it all up. This means that the most likely (or even the fiftieth percentile) seat number could be very different from the right price for the spread.
Am I thinking you are on your hols/work in the UK given this nocturnal posting?
No. There's a big fire near where I live, and two families had to evacuate their houses at 3am and we've put them up.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
He made a pledge dishonestly, in full knowledge that the Commons would not support leaving without a deal on October 31st, or without sufficient time to scrutinise a deal.
From the beginning it's been to set up this general election.
Are you not at all nervous about his next bit of dishonesty? What do you think he might be promising now that he knows he can't deliver?
No dishonesty. He sought a deal, he got a deal and if Parliament had voted for it we'd be out. Parliament voted against for the 4th time.
He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.
Keith Vaz to be denied a former member's pass. That's pretty strong. Could they have recommended that he was expelled rather than suspended? Seems a shame that the GE will save him from a recall petition.
I wonder whether Labour will end their misery and vote for an election today, rather than waiting for the LDs and SNP to do it for them tomorrow.
Well, yes, they'll look daft if they stick to the "take No Deal off the table" line on the same day that the EU granted an extension.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48
hours?
The deeprooted anger is still there from Labour activists towards the Lib Dems for enabling the coalition in 2010. It is visceral and has been masked recently by the brexit coming and goings. This is going to get very nasty
I oscillate between Labour & LibDem, and I could never understand that anger. It wasn't as if Labour+LibDem could have got across the line, and, due to the shenanigans in the Labour Party at the time, little chance of Labour providing a government. Further, there was a credible threat off a serious run on the pound, IIRC.
You're not expecting Corbynistas to temper their views because of reality, are you?
Except the post I was responding to didn't talk about desired changes to a deal. It talked about refusing to do anything for 4 to 6 months to hurt Johnson. If Labour are so utterly partisan they will refuse to back any deal negotiated by the Conservatives, then they should support a change of government as soon as possible and vote for an election.
Not quite. I said that "if one's priority is to spike the Boris Johnson Project" the best course of action is to prevent both Brexit and a GE for several months. Of course that is NOT everyone's top priority - e.g. it is not for Jo Swinson or for Nicola Sturgeon - but it is IMO a valid and honourable objective to pursue. It would be a different matter if Johnson was trying to get Brexit done and as an incidental consequence hoping to win an election as his reward. But he isn't. It's the opposite. He's trying to win an election and Brexit is a mere means to that end. Brexit is but a tool in the bag. A big one, sure, but nothing more. It sits there nestling nicely along with his other tools - chief among them being a truly exceptional blend of facile charm and mendacity.
It takes a special sort of political genius to get yourself in a position where you call for an election for months subject to a condition, vote against it when the condition has been met, and then vote for it the very next day.
run a 2010, 2017 redux, combining the negative, the fraudulent and the moon on a fricking stick. You won't win but we might have another hung parliament.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
He made a promise he couldn't keep. And he knew he couldn't keep it yet still made it because at that moment he had a different end in sight, that of Boris Johnson becoming leader of the Conservative Party and hence Prime Minister. That was why he made that unkeepable pledge. What else will he pledge to do in order to gain, for example, a victory at the next General Election?
I’ve lost track, what is the justification for not voting for an election now an extension has been granted? Is it because they don’t want it held on a day that ends in Y?
They want a no no-deal guarantee for Dec 2020...
There is literally no way of doing that.
No kidding.
I believe the formulation is that they want 'Boris's word' - for what that's worth.......
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
Keith Vaz to be denied a former member's pass. That's pretty strong. Could they have recommended that he was expelled rather than suspended? Seems a shame that the GE will save him from a recall petition.
He'd get back in lol.
Leicester East is ultra safe for Labour I think, even in these darkened times for them.
Remarkable that Lab at 210 are not a bargain buy, even in 1983 they got 209
Now that's an example of good head-over-heart betting.
At least, I think it is
My view on this is that the Labour vote will not implode as much as some seem to think it will.
p.s. I think I slightly misread your post. I thought you were saying it should be better value?
Labour 200-249 Ladbrokes 15/8 Labour 250-299 Ladbrokes 5/1
Those two look like good bets to me.
250-299 @ 5/1 looks poor value unless you're actually backing the LDs to flop and the Tories to lose some seats to labour.
That's a non-sequitur
I'm expecting the LibDems to cut through in Tory England, the Labour heartlands to remain relatively untouched.
Corbyn secured 262 last time.
That is at odds with all the polling we have seen for Midlands and the North and also suggests the LDs will take no seats off Labour (I expect them to win hallam, leeds northwest, cambridge etc).
Labour have 15 seats with less than 1,000 majority over the Tories. With Lib Dems on the rise surely those seats will go blue unless The Brexit Party have a big polling surge.
Hallam will probably go yellow.
There may be local factors that influence that result.
Leeds NW. Using my patented four question system, I get:
1. UNS?
LD Gain
2. Remainy?
Very
3. Local election results?
OK. Won two of the four wards this time around, but didn't perform in the other two. Most notably there weren't really big swings to the LDs.
4. Vulnerable to a squeeze?
Probably not - Cons are too far behind
rcs1000 says... Labour Hold (with a dramatically reduced majority)
I can never understand the fixation on here with discussing LD prospects ad infinitum and ad nauseam. I think there are one or two souls who think winning eight seats in 2015 was eight seats too many.
As far as the spreads are concerned, if you think the Conservatives are going to win big, a BUY at 325 seems to have very little downside and plenty of upside. A 1983-style landslide would ensure a substantial profit.
I think a SELL of LD seats at 40 has more risk but again if you think the best the party can hope for is 20-25 seats with a lot of near misses that's another decent trade I'd argue.
I don't think there's much margin in the Labour seats - there's less risk in a BUY at 210 than a SELL at 202. Labour would need to be down sub 20% to start making the kind of losses that would tempt a SELL at those numbers and the upside from 210 would be limited unless the Conservatives implode in the campaign.
It's a pity there's no Independent seat market - that may be the most interesting of all.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
Indeed. Thoroughly dishonest Remain MPs. But then of course we knew that all along. They will never agree to any sort of Deal because their real aim is to stop Brexit entirely. Which is why they need to be swept away.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition ir game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
None of which entails supporting the government when you are a member of the opposition. They wanted to stop No Deal (it seems that they have done so for a bit) and would indeed back a smooth and orderly Brexit, a Labour Party smooth and orderly Brexit. In their manifesto they said they wouldn't support a Conservative Party Brexit.
No dishonesty. He sought a deal, he got a deal and if Parliament had voted for it we'd be out. Parliament voted against for the 4th time.
He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.
Of course but when he made that pledge he didn't have a majority and hence made it knowing full well that he would likely not be able to deliver on it. As indeed it transpired. And he knew that he wouldn't be able to deliver on it. And yet he still made it. That worries me because for those who are stupid, illiterate fools, his pledges may be persuasive.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories - they literally are the MPs responsible. Actions have consequences and an election with the whip removed from Tories is fair game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up.
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
What lie?
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
He made a promise he couldn't keep. And he knew he couldn't keep it yet still made it because at that moment he had a different end in sight, that of Boris Johnson becoming leader of the Conservative Party and hence Prime Minister. That was why he made that unkeepable pledge. What else will he pledge to do in order to gain, for example, a victory at the next General Election?
He kept his end of the deal by voting for what he pledged and compelled every MP holding the Tory whip to honour it too.
He isn't responsible for opposition MPs. 100% of his MPs voted for us to leave on time.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition ir game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up. thing?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
None of which entails supporting the government when you are a member of the opposition. They wanted to stop No Deal (it seems that they have done so for a bit) and would indeed back a smooth and orderly Brexit, a Labour Party smooth and orderly Brexit. In their manifesto they said they wouldn't support a Conservative Party Brexit.
Give me a break! There have been plenty who have said they are supportive of a deal and didn't restrict it with a "but not one negotiated by anyone but us".
No dishonesty. He sought a deal, he got a deal and if Parliament had voted for it we'd be out. Parliament voted against for the 4th time.
He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.
Of course but when he made that pledge he didn't have a majority and hence made it knowing full well that he would likely not be able to deliver on it. As indeed it transpired. And he knew that he wouldn't be able to deliver on it. And yet he still made it. That worries me because for those who are stupid, illiterate fools, his pledges may be persuasive.
When he made the pledge he was a few MPs only short of a majority and there were opposition MPs saying that we needed to leave too. Grieve and Gyimyah etc were still holding the Tory whip and the manifesto commitment they were elected on to honour the referendum.
He isn't responsible for the duplicity of liars like Grieve who have been expelled as punishment for their duplicity and breaking the whip.
Boris likely gets the GE he wants before 31st October with a huge poll lead and having not sent any letter signed by him requesting extension, so he can blame it on opposition MPs and deselected Tories
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition ir game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up. thing?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
If that is what he did he displayed a massive lack of understanding of how politics works. They didn't lie at all they want a Labour government and their entire effort is directed towards that end. I appreciate that Boris might not have understood how British politics works but it doesn't exactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
None of which entails supporting the government when you are a member of the opposition. They wanted to stop No Deal (it seems that they have done so for a bit) and would indeed back a smooth and orderly Brexit, a Labour Party smooth and orderly Brexit. In their manifesto they said they wouldn't support a Conservative Party Brexit.
Give me a break! There have been plenty who have said they are supportive of a deal and didn't restrict it with a "but not one negotiated by anyone but us".
I mean this is British politics we are talking about are we really saying on this site that we don't fully understand how it all works?
Looking back, the People's Vote campaign's biggest mistake was the name they chose. It implied the previous referendum was somehow not a people's vote which a lot of voters found rather offensive.
Yep. Tony and Alistair (orignators of "People's Princess") got too clever by half.
I keep saying it but why is Nigel Farage so quiet? Nothing from him in the Brexit supporting media. No tweets on his Twitter today. I smell a rat! What is he and TBP upto? You would expect Farage to be going hell for leather on the day an extension is agreed in normal circumstances...
Perhaps he has finally realised that the only way to get Brexit is for brexiteers to vote Tory en masse.
Its not a case of blaming it on opposition ir game.
Opposition MPs seem convinced that Boris will be brutally punished by Leave voters for this delay beyond 31st October 2019.
Heaven knows why, except they’re believing their own prejudices about Leave voters being as stupid as they caricature them as being.
I think they’ve got this badly wrong.
100% agreed. We're not stupid, illiterate fools who can't see exactly what they've done.
LOL thanks for clearing that up. thing?
He made a commitment based on the belief he would get a new deal on the assumption that opposition MPs who supposedly just wanted to avoid No Deal were being honest. They were the ones that lied.
Iactly cover him in glory if that is so.
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
There were plenty of MPs who said they just wanted to stop No Deal and would back a smooth and orderly Brexit. He got a Deal to get that and they still opposed.
None of which entails supporting the government when you are a member of the opposition. They wanted to stop No Deal (it seems that they have done so for a bit) and would indeed back a smooth and orderly Brexit, a Labour Party smooth and orderly Brexit. In their manifesto they said they wouldn't support a Conservative Party Brexit.
Give me a break! There have been plenty who have said they are supportive of a deal and didn't restrict it with a "but not one negotiated by anyone but us".
I mean this is British politics we are talking about are we really saying on this site that we don't fully understand how it all works?
Well apparently half of the site thinks campaign pledges need to include the phrase "try my best" before each of them!
No dishonesty. He sought a deal, he got a deal and if Parliament had voted for it we'd be out. Parliament voted against for the 4th time.
He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.
Of course but when he made that pledge he didn't have a majority and hence made it knowing full well that he would likely not be able to deliver on it. As indeed it transpired. And he knew that he wouldn't be able to deliver on it. And yet he still made it. That worries me because for those who are stupid, illiterate fools, his pledges may be persuasive.
When he made the pledge he was a few MPs only short of a majority and there were opposition MPs saying that we needed to leave too. Grieve and Gyimyah etc were still holding the Tory whip and the manifesto commitment they were elected on to honour the referendum.
He isn't responsible for the duplicity of liars like Grieve who have been expelled as punishment for their duplicity and breaking the whip.
If he said I will do everything he can to leave by x date he is responsible for doing what he can. If he says he will make certain we leave by x date regardless he is responsible for delivering what he promised. There is nothing complicated about this.
Comments
I'd buy Labour a bit. Sell Lib Dems big time.
Last time I'm going to flog this dead horse, but I still maintain that the LDs' chances of getting a big increase in seats relied on the Tories being in a very weakened state: both because most of their prospects for gains are held by the Tories, but also because the appeal for soft Labour voters to go LD relied on the Tories looking absolutely screwed (as they did, briefly, round the time of the European elections) making it "safe" for people who can't stand the Tories to vote for their first preference.
And I would agree the spreads do capture the mean better than regular expectations. Expectations for BXP seats (on a simple over/under) is probably 0.5. Yet they're trading at 3-5.
I assume that private polling for the party is rather bleak. Not only has Corbyn tanked, Scotland has tanked, and many voters are so fed up that they might just sit on their hands. The only glimmers of hope are (a) Corbyn did so well last time, (b) the manifesto went down well last time, (c) most polling - and canvass returns - markedly underestimated Labour's performance last time, and (d) a strong Remain Alliance tactical voting campaign could help them out by squeezing LDs, Green etc.
The last point is v important, so how wise was it for the Labour machine to attack the LDs so fiercely over the last 48 hours?
Without them showing support for an early election we might have had the shorter extension with the deal pushed through .
Labours pathetic attempts to avoid an election nearly cost Remainers their last possible chance .
I hope Remainers reward those who took initiative and realized what could happen otherwise.
Labour have utterly failed. Despite my reservations over the Lib Dem revoke policy I’ll be voting for them .
All Remainers need to show Labour the consequences of being handmaidens to Brexit !
This is going to get very nasty
Labour 200-249 15/8
Labour 250-299 5/1
You've actually got 15/8 from 150 through to 249
Going to head into work in a minute
So what is your view of Boris lying in order to achieve his aim (Boris as PM) and is there any kind of line to be drawn or lesson learned given that he made that pledge and his supporters are super happy that he failed to keep it? What about other politicians and pledges to do something or not do something?
https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1188819109431201794?s=21
Despite being uncertain about the effects of the date on Lib/Con I can't help but think a Monday election would be really bad for Labour, you sense beyond the core support their vote is incredibly soft and a cold, dark miserable Monday could lead to a huge amount of their usual turnout staying at home.
I think LibDems will do really well and a lot of their vote will be targetted. Across southern Britain we could see some huge movement.
In general though, and I know this is not very exciting, in terms of results I don't think the election will be that seismically different from last time.
In other words, one means no Brexit before the election, the other leaves the possibility.
Their number 1 target is Ynys Mon where they narrowly came third last time:
Lab 42%, Con 28% Plaid 27%. The LDs got 1% last time and the Greens didn't stand so getting 2 parties to stand down doesn't help much
Their number 2 target is Llanelli where again they came third:
Lab 54%, Con 24% Plaid 18%. Again the LDs got 1% and the Greens didn't stand
The only real help I can see Plaid getting from this alliance is if the LDs stand down in Ceredigion (one of their top targets)
Boris hasn't voted for an extension, he expelled those in his party that did and has sought an election to get us out. He's done everything within his power.
I don't have a problem with people who are defeated I do have a problem with people who don't try. He try to keep his pledge - it isn't his fault that opposition MPs voted against it. If he had voted against it like May did in March when Theresa May voted for an extension then he would have been a liar.
I'm expecting the LibDems to cut through in Tory England, the Labour heartlands to remain relatively untouched.
Corbyn secured 262 last time.
Labour have 15 seats with less than 1,000 majority over the Tories. With Lib Dems on the rise surely those seats will go blue unless The Brexit Party have a big polling surge.
Which seems unlikely to be granted by Bummings*.
*My Boris/Cummings neologism.
If they vote for the one-line bill tomorrow then the date is fixed by law and cannot be altered. If it's the 9th December then the WAB falls, for now.
"The polls may seem dismal. But here’s how Labour could win a general election
Tom Kibasi"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/28/polls-labour-win-general-election
From the beginning it's been to set up this general election.
Are you not at all nervous about his next bit of dishonesty? What do you think he might be promising now that he knows he can't deliver?
But could be winners I guess
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/three-hundreds-of-chiltern-john-mann?utm_source=5445f071-8c76-4231-83d6-f4ccc41c1eca&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_content=immediate
Because they wargamed it all, right?
And now you're saying (along with James Cleverly) that if only it hadn't been for the pesky opposition the plan would have worked.
He has no majority in Parliament. If he gets a majority then he has no reason not to deliver his pledges so lets give him a majority and then talk.
I believe the formulation is that they want 'Boris's word' - for what that's worth.......
Leicester East is ultra safe for Labour I think, even in these darkened times for them.
There may be local factors that influence that result.
Leeds NW. Using my patented four question system, I get:
1. UNS?
LD Gain
2. Remainy?
Very
3. Local election results?
OK. Won two of the four wards this time around, but didn't perform in the other two. Most notably there weren't really big swings to the LDs.
4. Vulnerable to a squeeze?
Probably not - Cons are too far behind
rcs1000 says... Labour Hold (with a dramatically reduced majority)
I can never understand the fixation on here with discussing LD prospects ad infinitum and ad nauseam. I think there are one or two souls who think winning eight seats in 2015 was eight seats too many.
As far as the spreads are concerned, if you think the Conservatives are going to win big, a BUY at 325 seems to have very little downside and plenty of upside. A 1983-style landslide would ensure a substantial profit.
I think a SELL of LD seats at 40 has more risk but again if you think the best the party can hope for is 20-25 seats with a lot of near misses that's another decent trade I'd argue.
I don't think there's much margin in the Labour seats - there's less risk in a BUY at 210 than a SELL at 202. Labour would need to be down sub 20% to start making the kind of losses that would tempt a SELL at those numbers and the upside from 210 would be limited unless the Conservatives implode in the campaign.
It's a pity there's no Independent seat market - that may be the most interesting of all.
1. Boris promised, repeatedly and prominently, that we'd leave the EU on the 31st October, do-or-die, no ifs or buts, come what may.
2, Boris promised he'd do his best to ensure we'd leave the EU on the 31st October.
He isn't responsible for opposition MPs. 100% of his MPs voted for us to leave on time.
He isn't responsible for the duplicity of liars like Grieve who have been expelled as punishment for their duplicity and breaking the whip.
1. "As President, I will close down the detention facility at Guantanamo."
Or
2. "As President, I will try my best to close down the detention facility at Guantanamo."
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/127d51d9-895d-483a-974d-b0af55a7f23c
Boris is responsible for his and his MPs actions, not opposition MPs actions.