I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members
Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.
Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....
my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-
It shows how far off the deep end Labour members have gone that they think making an anti-Semite PM is fine, but voting for a compromise deal supported by Varadkar is unacceptable.
It does make you wonder how many are set to vote for the deal. The more do, the more strength they have. We know 19 wrote to the EU wanting a deal and some say upto 40 could be tempted
Personally I think 20 is very possible otherwise if it was only a few they would be threatened with losing the whip
It does make you wonder how many are set to vote for the deal. The more do, the more strength they have. We know 19 wrote to the EU wanting a deal and some say upto 40 could be tempted
Personally I think 20 is very possible otherwise if it was only a few they would be threatened with losing the whip
It does make you wonder how many are set to vote for the deal. The more do, the more strength they have. We know 19 wrote to the EU wanting a deal and some say upto 40 could be tempted
Personally I think 20 is very possible otherwise if it was only a few they would be threatened with losing the whip
It does make you wonder how many are set to vote for the deal. The more do, the more strength they have. We know 19 wrote to the EU wanting a deal and some say upto 40 could be tempted
Personally I think 20 is very possible otherwise if it was only a few they would be threatened with losing the whip
How many constitutes a crisis for Labour?
Possibly more of a crisis for Labour if this vote DOESN'T get voted through.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Interesting to see how little support there was for BoZo's Deal in the #BBCQT audience, just 3 hands raised, and quite a bit of support for the BXP..
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Interesting to see how little support there was for BoZo's Deal in the #BBCQT audience, just 3 hands raised, and quite a bit of support for the BXP..
.... if this extension would be for a general election, a second referendum or a referendum on this deal....
So hang on.... an extension for (1) A GE (2) A second ref (3) A ref on this specific deal
Aren't (2) and (3) the same? Or do they (whoever they are) really think we're just going to rerun 2016?! What if we voted a 'generic' LEAVE again? Do we do another three years of negotiation?
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Interesting to see how little support there was for BoZo's Deal in the #BBCQT audience, just 3 hands raised, and quite a bit of support for the BXP..
Is it interesting?
Shows how representative QT is with 40:31 in favour on Comres poll
If you do the comparison with the council elections in 2019, then the changes are: Labour +1.0 Green -4.6 LibDem +3.2 Conservative +1.6 No Liberal (-1.1%) as previously. Which is a similar sort of picture, but with a smaller rise in the Labour share.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Interesting to see how little support there was for BoZo's Deal in the #BBCQT audience, just 3 hands raised, and quite a bit of support for the BXP..
Is it interesting?
Yes, the show has a Leave biased audience, unlike #bbcaq which has an audience biased Remain. I think the Deal rather underwhelming.
While the three Leicester seats are Labour, the other seven Leics seats are Tory. Leicester was narrowly for Remain, Leicestershire 55%Leave.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Wowzers
I just, utterly nerdily, downloaded a random This Week from 13/06/19
Michael Portillo’s prediction?
Boris, who has no political principles whatsoever, will go back and get a backstop that applies only to Northern Ireland
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Wowzers
I just, utterly nerdily, downloaded a random This Week from 13/06/19
Michael Portillo’s prediction?
Boris, who has no political principles whatsoever, will go back and get a backstop that applies only to Northern Ireland
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
He warned Cameron of the danger of holding a referendum because he thought Leave would win, in 2013
It is interesting that Boris has gone for this - if he cannot get it through he faces a GE with BXP saying it is a shambles, DUP angry and not willing to cooperate should he come up short at a GE (at least not on Brexit), and potentially still some furious ERGers who sold out to back his deal and it didn't even pass.
Credit to him, he really did mean it when he said he wanted a deal, but so far its likely same as the May deal in outcome, but a bit closer because a few more ERGers are on board.
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
It is interesting that Boris has gone for this - if he cannot get it through he faces a GE with BXP saying it is a shambles, DUP angry and not willing to cooperate should he come up short at a GE (at least not on Brexit), and potentially still some furious ERGers who sold out to back his deal and it didn't even pass.
Credit to him, he really did mean it when he said he wanted a deal, but so far its likely same as the May deal in outcome, but a bit closer because a few more ERGers are on board.
If we have a GE and the Tories still need DUP support to form a government, Brexit ain't getting done.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
He warned Cameron of the danger of holding a referendum because he thought Leave would win, in 2013
He also said that voting Leave would be the best way to get a renegotiation so we end up remaining and that if you believe Leave means Leave, you’ll believe anything...
Looking at the electionmaps list, Johnson needs 6 votes from these 13:
exCon: Anne Milton (exCon) Amber Rudd (exCon) Justine Greening (exCon) Margot James (exCon)
exLab: Ivan Lewis Mike Hill Richard Benyon John Woodcock
Lab: Stephen Kinnock LAB Melanie Onn LAB Kate Hoey LAB Rosie Cooper LAB
Lib: Norman Lamb LDM
Although I'm a bit dubious about all the ominously quiet spartans.
Hoey is a confirmed no someone earlier reported. I know Lamb has moved a bit, but if he didn't back the May deal? Kinnock? Don't make me laugh. Woodcock is a committed referendumite?
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
He warned Cameron of the danger of holding a referendum because he thought Leave would win, in 2013
He also said that voting Leave would be the best way to get a renegotiation so we end up remaining and that if you believe Leave means Leave, you’ll believe anything...
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I think this was before Corbyn announced it'd be basically a free vote for Labour MPs?
Might shift a few, but if their logic was they didn't like May's deal they won't like this one either (as it is Boris), and can claim to back a new negotiation to change the deal further - after all, the EU just proved they will do that.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
He warned Cameron of the danger of holding a referendum because he thought Leave would win, in 2013
He also said that voting Leave would be the best way to get a renegotiation so we end up remaining and that if you believe Leave means Leave, you’ll believe anything...
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
No, except for small personal items, EU duty is to be paid on entry to NI and reclaimed from NI HMRC. Presumably they would want to be certain the goods were not crossing the border. At least that is my understanding.
It is interesting that Boris has gone for this - if he cannot get it through he faces a GE with BXP saying it is a shambles, DUP angry and not willing to cooperate should he come up short at a GE (at least not on Brexit), and potentially still some furious ERGers who sold out to back his deal and it didn't even pass.
Credit to him, he really did mean it when he said he wanted a deal, but so far its likely same as the May deal in outcome, but a bit closer because a few more ERGers are on board.
I don’t think he meant it - and it didn't look like he meant it, or was even trying - until Benn boxed him in with the only alternative being an even more damaging extension.
For a while it looked as if he was considering breaking the law as a preferable alternative - until that evidence given to the court in scotland.
I think this was before Corbyn announced it'd be basically a free vote for Labour MPs?
It's reminding me that people said there was little point in potential Labour rebels supporting Theresa May, because she was always losing by a large enough margin to make breaking ranks symbolic.
Now it is likely to change the outcome of the vote.
Looking at the electionmaps list, Johnson needs 6 votes from these 13:
exCon: Anne Milton (exCon) Amber Rudd (exCon) Justine Greening (exCon) Margot James (exCon)
exLab: Ivan Lewis Mike Hill Richard Benyon John Woodcock
Lab: Stephen Kinnock LAB Melanie Onn LAB Kate Hoey LAB Rosie Cooper LAB
Lib: Norman Lamb LDM
Although I'm a bit dubious about all the ominously quiet spartans.
Hoey is a confirmed no someone earlier reported. I know Lamb has moved a bit, but if he didn't back the May deal? Kinnock? Don't make me laugh. Woodcock is a committed referendumite?
Enough of the rest?
Woodcock is a reluctant referendumite. He may vote for to get it done, he abstained on Benn
Great deal. NI will now be in the EU economic area, for 80% of intents and purposes. Next there will probably have to be some kind of formal representation in Dublin / Strasbourg.
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
No, except for small personal items, EU duty is to be paid on entry to NI and reclaimed from NI HMRC. Presumably they would want to be certain the goods were not crossing the border. At least that is my understanding.
So NI is effectively remaining in the EU and there’s a duty watershed in the Irish Sea? Wow. That’s a much more EU-friendly deal than I expected.
Great deal. NI will now be in the EU economic area, for 80% of intents and purposes. Next there will probably have to be some kind of formal representation in Dublin / Strasbourg.
Perhaps a seat in the Dáil would convince Arlene Foster to back it?
I think it’s pretty certain any Labour MP voting for the deal will be deselected by their local party . The membership is overwhelmingly Remain and it effectively cements a Tory election win if Labour MPs help this over the line .
Labour know the only chance to win and it’s slim anyway is to have a GE before Brexit . The message to Labour MPs should be voting for this deal is voting to keep Johnson as PM for the next 5 years .
Looking at the electionmaps list, Johnson needs 6 votes from these 13:
exCon: Anne Milton (exCon) Amber Rudd (exCon) Justine Greening (exCon) Margot James (exCon)
exLab: Ivan Lewis Mike Hill Richard Benyon John Woodcock
Lab: Stephen Kinnock LAB Melanie Onn LAB Kate Hoey LAB Rosie Cooper LAB
Lib: Norman Lamb LDM
Although I'm a bit dubious about all the ominously quiet spartans.
My guess is that Lamb will abstain and Greening will vote against.
Hoey, Woodcock and Rudd will - I suspect - vote in favour.
No strong views on the rest.
Isn't Lamb in the get it done camp? And he is stepping down at GE, so he doesn't have to worry about party standing.
Lamb is a semi detached LD these days
Not detached enough back at MV3 to back it. Imminent retirement might free him up but I would think the party will apply huge pressure to get unanimous support from their mps. Its presumably why lloyd resigned the whip despite still being a party member.
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
Mps for a deal have not had a chance to prove if they are in fact all mouth and no trousers. Others in that group are not close to saying yes.
I had a look through the 19 Lab MPs who wrote that letter to Tusk, and seems like 4: Barron, Fitzpatrick, Smeeth and Snell. Apparently 5 voted for May's last try.
Tonight more than ever it is a real shame that there is no This Week on BBC1 after QT.
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
I believe Portillo predicted that Remain would win. That’s why he was against holding a referendum.
He warned Cameron of the danger of holding a referendum because he thought Leave would win, in 2013
He also said that voting Leave would be the best way to get a renegotiation so we end up remaining and that if you believe Leave means Leave, you’ll believe anything...
Yes, I just saw that. Well he wasn’t far off there either
Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades...
Anyhoo @isam , I need to ask you a question. The odds on a No Deal departure by 31st are really long: 6/1. But we only have 13 days to departure and Boris might not have the numbers. Given that, 6/1 has got to be value, surely?
Looking at the electionmaps list, Johnson needs 6 votes from these 13:
exCon: Anne Milton (exCon) Amber Rudd (exCon) Justine Greening (exCon) Margot James (exCon)
exLab: Ivan Lewis Mike Hill Richard Benyon John Woodcock
Lab: Stephen Kinnock LAB Melanie Onn LAB Kate Hoey LAB Rosie Cooper LAB
Lib: Norman Lamb LDM
Although I'm a bit dubious about all the ominously quiet spartans.
Hoey is a confirmed no someone earlier reported. I know Lamb has moved a bit, but if he didn't back the May deal? Kinnock? Don't make me laugh. Woodcock is a committed referendumite?
Enough of the rest?
Hoey is a definite no if her recent tweets are anything to go by. She would only move if the DUP did.
I think it’s pretty certain any Labour MP voting for the deal will be deselected by their local party . The membership is overwhelmingly Remain and it effectively cements a Tory election win if Labour MPs help this over the line .
Labour know the only chance to win and it’s slim anyway is to have a GE before Brexit . The message to Labour MPs should be voting for this deal is voting to keep Johnson as PM for the next 5 years .
Hate to break it to you - under the Trot leadership you don't win. Period.
I notice the BBC are saying Mark Field is standing down at the next election over Brexit. He thinks the UK should Remain. So will he vote for the deal? This also makes it easier for Chukka Umunna to take the seat.
I notice the BBC are saying Mark Field is standing down at the next election over Brexit. He thinks the UK should Remain. So will he vote for the deal? This also makes it easier for Chukka Umunna to take the seat.
I notice the BBC are saying Mark Field is standing down at the next election over Brexit. He thinks the UK should Remain. So will he vote for the deal? This also makes it easier for Chukka Umunna to take the seat.
I thought it was reported he would vote for it.
Indeed, on the website it has he will whereas the text on TV it does not. Still an interesting development for the next election.
I notice the BBC are saying Mark Field is standing down at the next election over Brexit. He thinks the UK should Remain. So will he vote for the deal? This also makes it easier for Chukka Umunna to take the seat.
I thought it was reported he would vote for it.
Indeed, on the website it has he will whereas the text on TV it does not. Still an interesting development for the next election.
On his website he says “naturally I shall support it”.
Re. Mark Field - There was a Womens Equality Party protest outside what they claim was his reselection meeting. WEP is fielding candidates against incumbents they allege face claims of abuse of women. All of their candidates have experienced abuse themselves. The protestors were dressed in red dresses identical to the female protester Field was filmed restraining.
The broad insuation they are making is his statement re Brexit is to disguise the ' real ' reason for his departure. Something I'm sure he would contest. However the WEP are claiming this is a sucess for their campaign.
Does Mark Field quiting help or hinder Chuka Umunna ? I don't know. A loss of incumbency coupled with a fairly unhelpful statement on Brexit from the departing MP says Yes. But Mark Field was a very damaged candidate because of that video footage. So is a chance to reset the Tory campaign actually helpful ?
Does Mark Field quiting help or hinder Chuka Umunna ? I don't know. A loss of incumbency coupled with a fairly unhelpful statement on Brexit from the departing MP says Yes. But Mark Field was a very damaged candidate because of that video footage. So is a chance to reset the Tory campaign actually helpful ?
Might help him a bit in my opinion. Mark Field was a pretty good fit for the constituency.
Great deal. NI will now be in the EU economic area, for 80% of intents and purposes. Next there will probably have to be some kind of formal representation in Dublin / Strasbourg.
Perhaps a seat in the Dáil would convince Arlene Foster to back it?
Dublin's chequebook aint big enough......Berlin and Paris's deep pockets however may sweeten the Party that likes to say No
More to the point, nobody wants to read an article saying, "A deal is now 3% more likely than it was last week", they want to hear an ooh and an aah. OK, some people do, but it's a niche interest, and they're all here.
Transferwise. Can change currency in seconds 24 hours per day. Costs 0.3%. I tried to hedge by getting some euro when it got to 1.15 expecting it to fall again. But it didnt... Also Revolut but 0.5% cost after initial free amount.
Transferwise. Can change currency in seconds 24 hours per day. Costs 0.3%. I tried to hedge by getting some euro when it got to 1.15 expecting it to fall again. But it didnt... Also Revolut but 0.5% cost after initial free amount.
If the DUP oppose the deal, hopefully Boris will claw back the billion or so that they extorted from TM for preventing Corbyn becoming Prime Minister in 2017. With interest. And surcharges.
Comments
Dialing it in now
Personally I think 20 is very possible otherwise if it was only a few they would be threatened with losing the whip
Obviously not an issue if we No Deal.
This is to stop some last minute dramas which might happen once MPs see that bill .
So if the deal passes we are out on the 31st and I assume for betting purposes as well
Portillo was a great judge of politics; he predicted Leave, Trump, and most impressively, having been a vehement critic of Boris, said that him winning a big majority in the Tory leadership was the best thing that could happen in order to get Brexit done.
We have a lab rise in vote share!
Because everything can change in British politics. But Vaz will always survive.
(1) A GE
(2) A second ref
(3) A ref on this specific deal
Aren't (2) and (3) the same? Or do they (whoever they are) really think we're just going to rerun 2016?! What if we voted a 'generic' LEAVE again? Do we do another three years of negotiation?
Labour +1.0
Green -4.6
LibDem +3.2
Conservative +1.6
No Liberal (-1.1%) as previously.
Which is a similar sort of picture, but with a smaller rise in the Labour share.
While the three Leicester seats are Labour, the other seven Leics seats are Tory. Leicester was narrowly for Remain, Leicestershire 55%Leave.
I just, utterly nerdily, downloaded a random This Week from 13/06/19
Michael Portillo’s prediction?
Boris, who has no political principles whatsoever, will go back and get a backstop that applies only to Northern Ireland
To try and keep your job and expenses!
exCon:
Anne Milton (exCon)
Amber Rudd (exCon)
Justine Greening (exCon)
Margot James (exCon)
exLab:
Ivan Lewis
Mike Hill
Richard Benyon
John Woodcock
Lab:
Stephen Kinnock LAB
Melanie Onn LAB
Kate Hoey LAB
Rosie Cooper LAB
Lib:
Norman Lamb LDM
Although I'm a bit dubious about all the ominously quiet spartans.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9813975/Michael-Portillo-attacks-David-Camerons-dangerous-EU-referendum.html
Credit to him, he really did mean it when he said he wanted a deal, but so far its likely same as the May deal in outcome, but a bit closer because a few more ERGers are on board.
Do I understand this correctly, we can keep any exports in the SM and CU by shipping them via Northern Ireland? I.e. if I want to export to continental Europe, I ship via Belfast and get into the SM and CU by the back door? I’m sure that is wrong, but can someone summarise?
Hoey, Woodcock and Rudd will - I suspect - vote in favour.
No strong views on the rest.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=94iVd2x7EO0
Enough of the rest?
Hasn’t Hoey as good as said she’ll follow the DUP?
For a while it looked as if he was considering breaking the law as a preferable alternative - until that evidence given to the court in scotland.
Now it is likely to change the outcome of the vote.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11032/norman_lamb/north_norfolk/divisions?policy=6761
I haven't seen him comment on BoZo's Deal.
Labour know the only chance to win and it’s slim anyway is to have a GE before Brexit . The message to Labour MPs should be voting for this deal is voting to keep Johnson as PM for the next 5 years .
Blunami
Not so blunami
He definitely voted Leave
Anyhoo @isam , I need to ask you a question. The odds on a No Deal departure by 31st are really long: 6/1. But we only have 13 days to departure and Boris might not have the numbers. Given that, 6/1 has got to be value, surely?
The broad insuation they are making is his statement re Brexit is to disguise the ' real ' reason for his departure. Something I'm sure he would contest. However the WEP are claiming this is a sucess for their campaign.
The Trump Organization on Thursday said it was “honored” to have been chosen by its owner, the president, for this event.
“We are excited to have been asked to host the 2020 G-7 Summit at Trump National Doral,” the company said in a statement.
But the company did not respond to questions about how much money it will make off this event.
https://www.welivesecurity.com/2019/10/17/operation-ghost-dukes-never-left/
Luckily, no-one has ever been influenced by campaigning and we are leaving the EU anyway, so that's all right then.
I think if we give the UKIP vote to the Brexit party it gives us an idea of what might happen in a GE.
Now we need to see some marginal labour LEAVE areas in the north