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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that t

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    first
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    second like Remain
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    Third!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Too high. Boris needs very good responses from some rather unreliable people to pull it off, not that he's got much grounds to complain about the unreliable, but at least he has delivered something to be voted on, which I thought he would not.
    kle4 said:

    Y0kel said:

    Good evening from the Special Administrative Region of Northern Ireland

    One country, two systems

    Hardy har.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    Its amazing all these people have an opinion on this deal which virtually nobody has read let alone carefully considered the implications.

    I have no real idea about this deal and i am a lot more aware about politics than most.
    I've certainly not read it yet, I'm sure it is riveting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarqueeMark said:

    second like Remain

    I expect you to spend the next 3 years complaining about the result and trying to overturn it.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2019
    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    40% chance of Brexit this month

    35% chance of a GE this year

    Even money Brexit before GE on Betfair
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    That’s a view certainly
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    " the Window ledge of the union "
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/rival-unionists-accuse-dup-of-catastrophic-brexit-miscalculation
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,719
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    If you define “the public” as “those people who back Boris”.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    mike@politicalbetting.com I believe.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    That’s a view certainly
    I have learnt so much from HY these past weeks

    60% WONT BACK JOHNSONS BREXIT SAYS POLL

    [snigger]
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    edited October 2019
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There's another Iowa poll out...

    And it's giving exactly the same message as the last two:

    Biden 23%
    Warren 23%
    Buttigieg 16%
    Sanders 13%

    Buttigieg is on the way up, Warren is still rising but but not at a great rate, and Biden and Sanders are slipping.

    Buttigieg will win in Iowa. He's the only smaller candidate who is getting this right. There is no point playing to California or Texas or whatever. The small players will be long gone by then. You propel yourself into the game with an impeccable organisation in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that's exactly what he's doing.

    Being awfully stereotypical about Buttigieg's base, but imagine how charming and complementary his cheerleaders will be about the hosts' canapes at those caucuses. I'm calling it now - he won't win it that night, but will propel himself very much onto the top table and finish the young(ish) pretenders that night.
    I agree: a Buttigieg top two finish in Iowa kills O'Rourke, Harris, Kloubucher, Yang and a host of others.

    If he does beat Warren and win Iowa - and I think it's 50/50 - then he is a genuinely top tier candidate, whatever the California polls say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
    ...well 40% of them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
    Ok but that’s not what you said.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    To get a Tory majority under FPTP no, provided they don't all vote Labour
    Ok but that’s not what you said.
    More also back it than oppose it
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    On the plus side....this deal sticks one in the eye of the fuckwits, bigoted DUP..and for double bonus points...the useless Corbyn, and Len Mc and their cronies who could have gone remain and got a second referendum and finished the Tories six months ago...good riddance to them both...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    edited October 2019
    Any by-elections tonight?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    It's fair to say that, currently, only 40% back Boris's Brexit Deal. The DK's can't be assumed to back it... they may well stay DK's forever on this point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    Hate watching something is a strange hobby, but a popular one I understand.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Benpointer said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    mike@politicalbetting.com I believe.
    Or TSE.

    If you message him on Twitter he will give you his email.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I never do
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
    Fair enough... but you know what I mean.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    I doubt more than 0.001% know much about the deal. What it does show is the wind of public opinion is brexit, get it f##king sorted.
    ...well 40% of them.
    Let’s not forget brexit never was a cerebral thing, it was emotional. That’s why I am convinced Boris has blown it with this deal. It’s emotionally bad. From the moment it was published in 23 languages the hot air balloon of Boris started to deflate, just as May did.

    You keep take back control alive by keeping it this mystical thing out there, like the day after a happy sexy dream, like believing in Santa or being in love.

    But the idiots have brought it down to reality. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Pah!

    Supposing that I had been moved to write something that I might want to submit for consideration for publication as a thread header on this blog - where would I send it to?

    Bantz@pb.com
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I never do
    Nor do I...

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Drutt said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
    I feel like you’re missing the underlying point I’m trying to make.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
    Aiming at @HYUFD obviously, not yourself.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
    Oh, surely no one could have said that... :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Gallowgate said:

    Drutt said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    Everything wrong with poll reading in one short thread.
    I feel like you’re missing the underlying point I’m trying to make.
    Then try making it again, with less under and less lying?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    MarqueeMark said:

    Any by-elections tonight?

    Yes. 2 in North Yorkshire, one in Liverpool and one in Gravesham.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited October 2019
    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    What's with the apostrophe?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    My point is that you cannot make any grand declarations about what the public want from that poll.
    I didn't know I did
    Aiming at @HYUFD obviously, not yourself.
    Thanks
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    slade said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Any by-elections tonight?

    Yes. 2 in North Yorkshire, one in Liverpool and one in Gravesham.
    Thnx
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    What's that, a majority in favor? :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    My attempt at 54/45 not far out then
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    kle4 said:

    Not sure I like that post on the last thread about if Boris loses narrowly loses narrowly the EU can help it across the line with a second vote - whether that is true or not I feel like it encourages waverers to vote against assuming it is true and they will get another go, like those who claim (with varying sincerity) that they would vote for May's deal now if they had a chance, and who missed the boat.

    Or those that stated they would vote Leave in 2016 so that the EU improve their offer and we can vote Remain in the 2nd ref?
    Oh, surely no one could have said that... :)
    I also had someone say to me "I voted Leave in protest but it won't have made any difference because my constituency was solidly Remain".

    (And before anyone says anything, I am sure there were equally stupid Remain voters.)

    Edit: thinking about it this guy was a stupid 'Remain' voter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,882
    Pulpstar said:

    40-31-29 is normally presented as 56-44, just saying.

    NI voted to Remain 56-44, just sayin'.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    I don't.
    Fair enough... but you know what I mean.
    Sure. More seriously, i think there really needs to be a rethink about this kind of shouty fight style coverage. We learn basically nothing and it is all about a gotcha type event where a panelist makes a pillock of themselves to be clipped for the interwebs.

    What is interesting, that despite claims nobody has attention span / time, Popualrity of podcasts are showing a resurgence in long form interviews.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    PeterMannion said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
    The EU Ref question should have been "Do you want to Leave the EU... or are you not that bothered?"

    Then all the non-voters could have been added to the "not bothered" side! :wink:
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Who is the geriatric fuckwit Brexiter Lab MP on NewsNight..?

    Hashtag kickoutLabBoJoarselickers
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Tory gain in the first byelection result.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    tyson said:

    Who is the geriatric fuckwit Brexiter Lab MP on NewsNight..?

    Hashtag kickoutLabBoJoarselickers

    Sorry Tyson

    I do not watch that either
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Benpointer said:

    PeterMannion said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly the public now backs the Boris Deal and want Brexit done

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1184938398328541185?s=20

    What about the 60% of the public who don’t or do they not matter?
    Err. Where is the 60%. You have done the same thing again assuming the D/K are all against. If you assume it is 5050 the figures approx to 54/45
    Well they are clearly not backing it are they or they would have said.
    And they are clearly not against it as they would have said

    Silly argument 54/45 is sensible
    The question was backing or not

    So not, in this case, includes DKs
    The EU Ref question should have been "Do you want to Leave the EU... or are you not that bothered?"

    Then all the non-voters could have been added to the "not bothered" side! :wink:
    https://youtu.be/zV1zK8zRCPo
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    In Liverpool? :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    Where is it?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Amazing that 11% still voting UKIP to be honest.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,122
    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Poor old labour. When will they get rid of Corbyn
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    Labour members are overwhelmingly remain, and even, more overwhelmingly anti Tory, and even more overwhelmingly anti Boris.....even in leave areas
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    eek said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
    LOL. Really? I know plenty of Labour Party Leavers at the local level.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    tyson said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    Labour members are overwhelmingly remain, and even, more overwhelmingly anti Tory, and even more overwhelmingly anti Boris.....even in leave areas
    Anti lots of things. Sadly not overwhelmingly anti-Corbyn. Hence their problem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,696
    Gallowgate said:

    Amazing that 11% still voting UKIP to be honest.

    116 of them!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    According to Corbyn cultists anyone who isn't for st Jezbollah is a tory
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    eek said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    It's unlikely the Labour members are leavers..
    LOL. Really? I know plenty of Labour Party Leavers at the local level.
    I think few of those are current members.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited October 2019
    slade said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
    Must be a tough area to have been Labour unopposed that far south and not in a big/progressive city.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Not many Leicester accents in the BBCQT audience.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
    You're really strong on perceptiveness too
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Pulpstar said:

    slade said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    In 2015 this was a Labour unopposed.
    Must be a tough area to have been Labour unopposed that far south and not in a big/progressive city.
    I suspect Conservative incompetence.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Didn't you get the memo?

    We are all tories if we don't support st Jezbollah in all things.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Little devils!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    ReggieCide said:

    Foxy said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh god they've got Matt Hanckock on QT! :(

    Watching QT...i think they could use it as a replacement for waterboarding.
    Every week we get people on here complaining about how awful QT is. Here's a suggestion: DON'T WATCH IT!
    My application for the audience was turned down. I should have put down that I was an undercover Tory councillor, then would have been nailed on...
    Always tell the truth!
    I did*, which is why I was turned down!

    *LD member who does canvassing etc.
    Sorry, I thought you were a closet Tory
    I voted Con in 2010, but not before or since.
    Some of my colleagues were pissed off with NuLab in 2010- too much performance management and control freakery...


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited October 2019
    +++BETTING POST+++

    Following my policy on betting transparency, please be advised that I have today staked £250 with PaddyPower on "No Deal in 2019" at 4/1. #BigBoyPants

    This is an insurance bet: it is not intended to win (I hope it doesn't!), it is intended to compensate for the outcome.

    As you know, I wish to preserve my wealth (it's very small, don't worry) against a currency crash. My method is to open up non-sterling currency accounts and move money into it, but that proved problematic (transfer costs, online banking failures, sterling has risen). Since an insurance policy shouldn't need an insurance policy of its own, I started to look for alternatives. This is one of them.

    A £250 bet at 4/1 wins £1000. If the currency crashes 20%, then £5000 is only worth £4000: a loss of £1000. So we can see that the £250 bet at 4/1 preserves the value of the £5000. No muss, no fuss, and the losses are capped at £250 instead of £1000.

    Thank you to all who took part in the discussion last night about which bet was the best for this.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


    That'll make them think again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Not true, but no swing to Lab.

    This ward has historically been Labour.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184945487578910741?s=19
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    ReggieCide said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    tyson said:

    I hope all the Labour MP's in leave constituencies...whether they lose the whip or not... they should get deselected by their local members

    Who are likely to be Leavers as well. Why would they deselect someone who was representing their views?
    No, in those constituencies the Labour membership (and most of the Lab 2017 voters) are Remainers.

    Tory supporting Lab MPs are at high risk of deselection.
    Any Lab BoJoer is gone...FUBARed....and deservedly so....

    my personal contempt for any Labour MP that votes for this deal would be unrivalled-


    That'll make them think again.
    Snigger
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    slade said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tory gain in the first byelection result.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184955101565407233?s=21
    Called it a couple of hours ago.
    LD stood down to enable Tory win
    Not true, but no swing to Lab.

    This ward has historically been Labour.


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1184945487578910741?s=19
    Not any longer it seems !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    BBC claiming it isn't do or die with this vote on Saturday....

    But if this deal, like Theresa May's deal agreed with EU leaders, fails to get through the House of Commons, and if there were a request from the UK for another Brexit extension, then these EU leaders, after three years of Brexit process - two Brexit deals - are not going to turn around and say no to the UK if this extension would be for a general election, a second referendum or a referendum on this deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-50079596

    As if MPs need any encouragement to play silly buggers, but looks like they will read this as smoke signals to do so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    BBC claiming it isn't do or die with this vote on Saturday....

    But if this deal, like Theresa May's deal agreed with EU leaders, fails to get through the House of Commons, and if there were a request from the UK for another Brexit extension, then these EU leaders, after three years of Brexit process - two Brexit deals - are not going to turn around and say no to the UK if this extension would be for a general election, a second referendum or a referendum on this deal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-50079596

    As if MPs need any encouragement to play silly buggers, but looks like they will read this as smoke signals to do so.

    Sadly so - they could sort it now - referendum or deal, whatever, but won't.
This discussion has been closed.