Remain look to have been comprehensively outplayed. Personally i am indifferent to this wither way.
But it is amusing to have seen Hammond, Stewart, Rudd et al to have thrown away political careers on the back of hubristic miscalculation.
Yes - they thought they were big dogs.
Turns out they were minnows.
No they were last vestiges of a moral believable Conservative party that appealed to a broad spectrum of voters. If you haven’t got room for Hammond and Rudd but you can accommodate Mark Francois then you have no hope. Nasty party doesn’t even start to to sum it up
Hammond and Rudd believed in nothing - they had no vision other than managerial decline.
They are more suited to running a quango or a small branch of Nat West.
These are the quick wins of Brexit - clearing out these selfish wankers.
Leaving you with nobody who could run a piss up in a brewery.
Remain look to have been comprehensively outplayed. Personally i am indifferent to this wither way.
But it is amusing to have seen Hammond, Stewart, Rudd et al to have thrown away political careers on the back of hubristic miscalculation.
Yes - they thought they were big dogs.
Turns out they were minnows.
No they were last vestiges of a moral believable Conservative party that appealed to a broad spectrum of voters. If you haven’t got room for Hammond and Rudd but you can accommodate Mark Francois then you have no hope. Nasty party doesn’t even start to to sum it up
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
The irish are desperate for a deal and the polls give Johnson the whip hand,
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
How tragic for the Brexiteers to have voted for someone who said he would die in a ditch rather than extend, only to discover that he's not insane after all.
Forgive me for my scepticism....but there is no way in a gazillion universes of infinitesimal lifetimes from multiverse parallel universes that Boris Johnson will secure more votes in a GE than Jezza.....
Your faith in Labour's impersonation drive is ill-founded, friend.......
I did mean to say amongst 18-24 year olds...
Obviously Corbyn's Labour is going to get trounced at the next GE...but not by 18-24 year olds it ain't.....
I'm off with Trotsky now for a walk....
18-24 year olds are going to vote Green if my household is anything to judge by....
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
Are you an irish nationalist?
Just asking. Your avatar suggests you might be.
"The Brits partitioned my country too, you know!"
If you are from the sub-continent originally then i would humbly suggest that the British firmly opposed partition until Jinnah forced it upon them.
I wonder to what extent the public are waking up to the fact that *every single one* of these endless 'Get Your Flu Jab' communications shows flu making life far more difficult and complicated whilst *not a single one* shows flu making life easier or better.
Um - you do know that the flu jab is supposed to stop you getting the flu? It would be a great analogy if the Government were advertising a jab to make people come down with a full and horrible case of the flu, I guess.
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
As a Remainer and being as objective as possible the outlines of the deal give both Johnson and the EU cause to be pleased .
Rather than just trash it because of Johnson. If what I’ve read is correct then I think he’s done okay .
I think the issue will be getting Labour votes , although there’s something on level playing field in there it’s nothing like what was promised in Mays deal .
The DUP I think are the losers , because it’s unlikely NI will ever be leaving the backstop. The big difference with this deal is that it’s not a bridge to move to a place where NI comes properly back under the UK umbrella . The backstop here is the final destination unless the Tories lose the next election because their idea of an FTA will never be sufficiently closely aligned with the EU .
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
Tell that to the DUP - who will be being told by Faragites, the spartanest of the spartans, and a lot of remainers that it goes against their principles.
Corbynites must have mellowed or are slow off the mark, as most of the comments against Ellman' sstatement are positive and supportive.
There's not really that many Corbynites on here
I meant the comments on twitter underneath her statement.
Oh, that's a different matter entirely. I'm surprised. Seems like no matter what you say on Twitter someone's going to send you a death threat for it. Total poison.
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
Sounds like they have lost their veto. A simple majority in Stormont means they always lose.
I suspect this is now down to speed. If Boris can steam roller the process then people's desperation for closure will win out. If it takes long enough that there is time for how humiliating this deal is to sink in then Boris is in real trouble.
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
Any consequences will be far worse for Northern Ireland than for the Republic, as most Northern Irish are too aware of. Hence the overwhelming support for the backstop.
The Irish are taking a risk, but it looks to be well calculated one.
The bill was explicitly written to address fears that President Donald Trump might use his pardon power to interfere with criminal investigations.
“We never thought we would have to worry about a state needing to review the president’s pardon power,” Assembly sponsor Joe Lentol (D-Brooklyn) said in a statement. “However, actions today remind us that presidential powers can be used with bad intentions.”
The federal Supreme Court has found that the constitutional prohibition on double jeopardy does not apply to the states. It does not bar state prosecutors from bringing charges against individuals who have already been tried on similar federal crimes. However, New York’s existing law included additional safeguards that prohibited these second trials.
“States have a right to pursue crimes that are state crimes that took place within their jurisdiction,” Senate sponsor Todd Kaminsky (D-Nassau) said earlier this year. “New York has written that out because of this loophole.”...
I think to be blunt the DUP have screwed up big time .
By hitching their wagon to the ERG and supporting Mays red lines instead of pushing for a softer Brexit they’ve ended up with a border in the Irish Sea and will be stuck in the backstop likely forever .
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
Sounds like they have lost their veto. A simple majority in Stormont means they always lose.
And if no Stormont then the default is that NI stays in the EU CU. SF can collapse Stormont at will so looks very much a permanent arrangement.
Whatever happened to the “technical solution” to the Irish border which Brexiters swore blind would be ready by now?
It passed the time until we got to this point, at which they can conveniently forget about it, sign up to something that appears to be mutually agreeable to both parties and then move on to negotiating the FTA.
I think some of the ERG won't be happy about the level playing field commitment, based on things said earlier today, but perhaps they will hope to push on that point during the subsequent negotiations.
I suspect this is now down to speed. If Boris can steam roller the process then people's desperation for closure will win out. If it takes long enough that there is time for how humiliating this deal is to sink in then Boris is in real trouble.
The news cycles move fast enough that it will be almost impossible for him to avoid a backlash.
Alberto nardelli on twitter looks to have what the deal looks like . The Consent mechanism looks fair unless you’re the DUP who wanted to have a veto .
It's an incredible deal for NI.
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
Sounds like they have lost their veto. A simple majority in Stormont means they always lose.
I read somewhere that they could choose for the vote to require 40% from both sides for consent to continue. DUP have way more than 40% of Unionist support at present (and UUP are currently trying to outflank them on Brexit anyway). I guess we need to wait for the exact text.
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
It looks like the DUP may still, sort of, retained a veto over the Northern Ireland arrangements continuing. I'm surprised that Ireland agreed to that. It makes it much more likely that the arrangements will come to an end, with the consequences for the border and the Irish economy that then entails.
Sounds like they have lost their veto. A simple majority in Stormont means they always lose.
I suspect this is now down to speed. If Boris can steam roller the process then people's desperation for closure will win out. If it takes long enough that there is time for how humiliating this deal is to sink in then Boris is in real trouble.
I suspect this is now down to speed. If Boris can steam roller the process then people's desperation for closure will win out. If it takes long enough that there is time for how humiliating this deal is to sink in then Boris is in real trouble.
I... I thought steam rollers were famously slow?
I mean, not as famously slow as Byronic, but still slow.
I've started to unwind my position regarding EUR->GDP as the considerable rise in sterling (~6 cents since last Friday) make it increasingly untenable. As discussed previously, bets can also provide cover but unlike currency conversion they are only loosely coupled to currency movements. Here are some bets currently available:
Leave by Oct 31st: Yes/No Leave by Oct 31st with no deal: Yes/No Leave by end 2019: Yes/No Leave by end 2019 with no deal: Yes/No
Which of these bets is most closely correlated with large currency movements?
The ambiguity in Johnson's Deal, I suspect, is in the FTA that's supposed to be fixed during the stand still transition. The. Johnson regime talk airily about a low obligation FTA being agreed within three months. The ERG like the sound of that. In practice any such deal will be high obligation, including level playing field commitments, and will take years to agree.
We will either crash out to a No Deal, deferred only by a few months, in which case mainland UK will potentially be completely cut off from Northern Ireland, worse than the DUP's worst nightmares.
Or we will be back to a multiyear Brexit limbo while nothing can be agreed.
Or it's the Vassal State. That won't please the ERG faction.
I am hoping for the Vassal State. It is almost Remaining and it counts a form of Leave so the Leavers can complain that they got what they voted for even though it is not what they wanted.
The entertainment value of saying "But it only said 'Leave' on the ballot paper, not any particular type of Leave" and watching them fulminate away should provide years of fun.
Are you an irish nationalist?
Just asking. Your avatar suggests you might be.
I am someone who has made a journey to the dark side to get away from the painful joke my country - the UK - has made itself into.
I was blessed with dual nationality so I have embraced my inner Paddy (or possibly inner Colleen)
I suspect this is now down to speed. If Boris can steam roller the process then people's desperation for closure will win out. If it takes long enough that there is time for how humiliating this deal is to sink in then Boris is in real trouble.
I agree. It’s basically Mays Deal+Some embarrassing Surrender on sea border and EU customs in Ulster, But it’s fine for the ERG because Boris is PM, Patel home sec, Rabb foreign sec and Mogg leader of the house, and opinion polls pointing to 5 year working majority and Labour too far behind to come back soon, so no need to jeopardise that.
Any scrutiny Picking away at it it’s in trouble. It’s got to be a bounce like no more than a days debate
“you are not a true patriot or democrat if you sabotage this last chance of a deal after 3 years thwarting the brexit UK voted for you dead remain parliament” etc
Of course most of that three years was May in a tunnel spouting inanities like “brexit means brexit” whilst ERG using their leverage for a coup, but let’s not let the truth get in the way of good politics, 😃
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
Good points. The public will probably tune out but the transition isn’t going to end and I agree . I expect it will be a two year transition period as an FTA will take a long time and then you need a delay before it’s implemented .
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period ….
The transition in the WA only had one extension possible, to either end 2021 or end 2022.
Remain look to have been comprehensively outplayed. Personally i am indifferent to this wither way.
But it is amusing to have seen Hammond, Stewart, Rudd et al to have thrown away political careers on the back of hubristic miscalculation.
Yes - they thought they were big dogs.
Turns out they were minnows.
No they were last vestiges of a moral believable Conservative party that appealed to a broad spectrum of voters. If you haven’t got room for Hammond and Rudd but you can accommodate Mark Francois then you have no hope. Nasty party doesn’t even start to to sum it up
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
The problem is more fundamental than that, I think. The agreement, such as it is, depends on a vaguely defined FTA being put in place. The Johnson regime talk about this being sorted in a few months and will be low obligation. In fact it will take years if ever happens at all and will certainly be high obligation. So what happens next? Do we crash out after all? Do we stay in a decade long transition to nowhere? Do we sign up to the full SM+CU+VAT area? No-one knows, but the implications of each are hugely different.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Any more detail on the latest Brexit lawsuit? Surely the courts would always want to wait for parliament to act first, to see if it resolves any legal quandry on its own, not screen potential votes for legal issues in advance?
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period ….
The transition in the WA only had one extension possible, to either end 2021 or end 2022.
Just like Article 50 was, at one time, impossible to extend beyond two years.
I really don't see any reason why the "permanent trade deal" is going to be any easier to negotiate than Brexit itself; all the same problems are going to be there, and our negotiating hand isn't going to be any stronger. And the cliff-edge of leaving the Transition without a deal is going to be just as severe as the current cliff-edge of leaving the EU without a deal; therefore, there'll be just as much of a scramble from many politicians to secure endless extensions to the transition until the magical 'deal' can be found.
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
I think intially at least a lot of people will be satisfied, on the same basis that a lot of people will be very very unhappy even though nothing will actually change immediately - I don't think the symbolism of it can be much understated, or else there'd not be so much effort to prevent even a BINO exit with a transition. Technically being out will change the nature of the next big political fight.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
If they sabotage the Deal, then Labour own that sabotage. 100%.
All job losses, all investment decisions put off. Corbyn's Labour owns them.
And they will be slaughtered in the upcoming election.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
If they sabotage the Deal, then Labour own that sabotage. 100%.
All job losses, all investment decisions put off. Corbyn's Labour owns them.
And they will be slaughtered in the upcoming election.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
LOL. We have been here before. There’s no lock holding a future Tory administration to that. Easily vote against something rather than take it on trust from those you can’t trust.
There was lots of talk on here that rather than humiliate himself for any deal Boris would resign, his government stand on their point of principle and resign. That talk seems to have stopped since it’s become clear Boris is taking the eat his words and spin on his principles for a deal route. 😁
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
Some people think he will get a massive majority if a deal does not get through now, so people are predicting him a long time in office no matter what happens.
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
The reasons people have for changing their minds are broad and varied, and show that many 2016 Leave voters share many of the same concerns as people who were always Remainers. They are:
- Protest votes - against Cameron, austerity, and the establishment
- Concern over how Brexit is causing neglect of domestic issues
- People who - often wanting a softer Brexit - note that Vote Leave promises have been broken
- Dislike of the values, actions and broken promises of Leave politicians and leaders
- Learning more about the EU and its value
- "Project Fear" turning out to be a possible reality, especially after the Yellowhammer report
- Realising Brexit won't help the UK regions as much as we thought
Any more detail on the latest Brexit lawsuit? Surely the courts would always want to wait for parliament to act first, to see if it resolves any legal quandry on its own, not screen potential votes for legal issues in advance?
I can see Jolyon being the sort of odd ball who will still be attempting to get the courts to say we havent' actually left the EU 20 years after we leave.
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
It is a Deal in Name Only.
I guess we're soon going to find out whether people did only ever care about "getting Brexit done", when we go into the constantly-extending transition period (LOL at people still claiming it will "end in 2020") where nothing at all changes.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
The problem is more fundamental than that, I think. The agreement, such as it is, depends on a vaguely defined FTA being put in place. The Johnson regime talk about this being sorted in a few months and will be low obligation. In fact it will take years if ever happens at all and will certainly be high obligation. So what happens next? Do we crash out after all? Do we stay in a decade long transition to nowhere? Do we sign up to the full SM+CU+VAT area? No-one knows, but the implications of each are hugely different.
I do wonder when you will accept that we're leaving the SM+CU+VAT area? I mean, the whole tone of the current negotiations make only doing that likely.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
It is a Tory Deal therefore they will vote against it.
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
If they sabotage the Deal, then Labour own that sabotage. 100%.
All job losses, all investment decisions put off. Corbyn's Labour owns them.
And they will be slaughtered in the upcoming election.
Umm. No.
Dreamer, you know you are a dreamer Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no! I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
Remain look to have been comprehensively outplayed. Personally i am indifferent to this wither way.
But it is amusing to have seen Hammond, Stewart, Rudd et al to have thrown away political careers on the back of hubristic miscalculation.
Yes - they thought they were big dogs.
Turns out they were minnows.
No they were last vestiges of a moral believable Conservative party that appealed to a broad spectrum of voters. If you haven’t got room for Hammond and Rudd but you can accommodate Mark Francois then you have no hope. Nasty party doesn’t even start to to sum it up
We now have not one but TWO Brexit Parties:
Brexit Party (Farage) Brexit Party (Johnson)
The Real Brexit Party The Continuity Brexit Party
The Brexit party of Faragstan. The People v Parliament Party of Borismania
Looks like Boris may be about to finish making the hole in the wall, what's the next part again?
" I wish I could tell you that BoJo fought the good fight, and the EU let him be. I wish I could tell you that - but Brexit is no fairy-tale world. He never said who did it, but we all knew."
Comments
Brexit Party (Farage)
Brexit Party (Johnson)
https://order-order.com/2019/10/16/louise-ellman-quits-labour-party/
It would be a great analogy if the Government were advertising a jab to make people come down with a full and horrible case of the flu, I guess.
Did you not fully think this one through?
They get the benefits of both the EU and British CU, EU SM, the British FTAs + UK, Ireland and EU have to keep bunging them shed loads of money year after year after year...
Buy property in NI now folks!!!
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1184555609506668544?s=19
Has everyone checked their ditches for the Prime Minister yet?
That might just feature at the election
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/16/trump-claims-kurds-are-much-safer-as-us-troops-leave-syria
Rather than just trash it because of Johnson. If what I’ve read is correct then I think he’s done okay .
I think the issue will be getting Labour votes , although there’s something on level playing field in there it’s nothing like what was promised in Mays deal .
The DUP I think are the losers , because it’s unlikely NI will ever be leaving the backstop. The big difference with this deal is that it’s not a bridge to move to a place where NI comes properly back under the UK umbrella . The backstop here is the final destination unless the Tories lose the next election because their idea of an FTA will never be sufficiently closely aligned with the EU .
I voted for him in 1 out of 2 leadership elections, so don't know if that makes me a 'Corbynite'.
I'm surprised. Seems like no matter what you say on Twitter someone's going to send you a death threat for it. Total poison.
But it is only in Boris’s interests to do so before Oct 31.
The Irish are taking a risk, but it looks to be well calculated one.
www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-poll-saying-majority-backs-irish-sea-border-rejected-by-dup-38414210.html
New York can now bring charges against presidential pardon recipients
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2019/10/16/new-york-can-now-bring-charges-against-presidential-pardon-recipients-1225613
ALBANY — Gov. Andrew Cuomo signed legislation Wednesday morning that will let New York prosecutors bring charges against individuals who have received presidential pardons for related crimes.
The bill was explicitly written to address fears that President Donald Trump might use his pardon power to interfere with criminal investigations.
“We never thought we would have to worry about a state needing to review the president’s pardon power,” Assembly sponsor Joe Lentol (D-Brooklyn) said in a statement. “However, actions today remind us that presidential powers can be used with bad intentions.”
The federal Supreme Court has found that the constitutional prohibition on double jeopardy does not apply to the states. It does not bar state prosecutors from bringing charges against individuals who have already been tried on similar federal crimes. However, New York’s existing law included additional safeguards that prohibited these second trials.
“States have a right to pursue crimes that are state crimes that took place within their jurisdiction,” Senate sponsor Todd Kaminsky (D-Nassau) said earlier this year. “New York has written that out because of this loophole.”...
By hitching their wagon to the ERG and supporting Mays red lines instead of pushing for a softer Brexit they’ve ended up with a border in the Irish Sea and will be stuck in the backstop likely forever .
Reason being. It depends on a vague FTA being agreed, which it won't be any time soon or on the terms envisaged for it by the Johnson regime.
Labour will need a new attack line on why they can't vote for the deal.
I think some of the ERG won't be happy about the level playing field commitment, based on things said earlier today, but perhaps they will hope to push on that point during the subsequent negotiations.
Will Farage go home and stop screaming "betrayal"? Will the average Leave voter care that immigration is completely unchanged? Will ERG MPs stop caring about the fact we can't do independent trade deals? Will the fact we're technically out of the EU and have symbolically "got Brexit done" be enough to satisfy people? I'm in two minds tbh.
It is a sort of Hogwarts spell, but done by the kid who never gets it to work
As a Unionist, I’m nervous about basically locking NI into the EU customs union forever.
Leave by Oct 31st: Yes/No
Leave by Oct 31st with no deal: Yes/No
Leave by end 2019: Yes/No
Leave by end 2019 with no deal: Yes/No
Which of these bets is most closely correlated with large currency movements?
I was blessed with dual nationality so I have embraced my inner Paddy (or possibly inner Colleen)
Any scrutiny Picking away at it it’s in trouble. It’s got to be a bounce like no more than a days debate
“you are not a true patriot or democrat if you sabotage this last chance of a deal after 3 years thwarting the brexit UK voted for you dead remain parliament” etc
Of course most of that three years was May in a tunnel spouting inanities like “brexit means brexit” whilst ERG using their leverage for a coup, but let’s not let the truth get in the way of good politics, 😃
The Continuity Brexit Party
If they can sabotage the Deal then Boris is in trouble and that would suit Corbyn nicely. Why should he vote FOR the deal and make Boris look like Churchill and give him two or three terms in office off the back of it?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/
If he doesn't get some momentum out of Iowa, he is sunk.
I really don't see any reason why the "permanent trade deal" is going to be any easier to negotiate than Brexit itself; all the same problems are going to be there, and our negotiating hand isn't going to be any stronger. And the cliff-edge of leaving the Transition without a deal is going to be just as severe as the current cliff-edge of leaving the EU without a deal; therefore, there'll be just as much of a scramble from many politicians to secure endless extensions to the transition until the magical 'deal' can be found.
Is the answer is to put the whole UK into the backstop and give Parliament and Stormont a four yearly consent on leaving it?
All job losses, all investment decisions put off. Corbyn's Labour owns them.
And they will be slaughtered in the upcoming election.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1184582067927048192?s=19
There was lots of talk on here that rather than humiliate himself for any deal Boris would resign, his government stand on their point of principle and resign. That talk seems to have stopped since it’s become clear Boris is taking the eat his words and spin on his principles for a deal route. 😁
There are no circumstances in which it makes political sense for Corbyn to help any deal over the line. But running the numbers earlier if the DUP are on board it will be very close depending on ex-Tory Con, and Labour rebels. How many actually believe leaving needs to happen, with a deal, and realistically think this will be as good as it gets (either because remain, no deal or additional Boris deal after a majority happens)? It needs something like 3/4 of the ex-Cons and as few as 10 Labour rebels. Tantalising for Boris, but just a few votes away.
https://theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/remainernow-campaign-top-reasons-people-changed-from-brexit-1-6326301
The reasons people have for changing their minds are broad and varied, and show that many 2016 Leave voters share many of the same concerns as people who were always Remainers. They are:
- Protest votes - against Cameron, austerity, and the establishment
- Concern over how Brexit is causing neglect of domestic issues
- People who - often wanting a softer Brexit - note that Vote Leave promises have been broken
- Dislike of the values, actions and broken promises of Leave politicians and leaders
- Learning more about the EU and its value
- "Project Fear" turning out to be a possible reality, especially after the Yellowhammer report
- Realising Brexit won't help the UK regions as much as we thought
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
I said dreamer, you're nothing but a dreamer
Well can you put your hands in your head, oh no!
The People v Parliament Party of Borismania