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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the la

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  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    TGOHF2 said:
    Hahah parody account stuff.
    Quite incredible.

    Did you see that mini series with Robbie Coltrane as the tv star accused of being a paedo?

    SPOILER

    Despite all the lies and subterfuge, your initial instinct that he was a wrongun was right all along. Same with these people. All they ever wanted to do was overturn the result because they lost.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    edited October 2019
    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    one answer - fear of Brexit in any form. The No Deal thing was just bollocks.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    One more day of fine dining in NYC and I shall be aboard the good ship Queen Mary and mostly off the internet. What's the betting it will be resolved by the time I reach Southampton?

    Approximately the same as TSE eating a pineapple pizza.
    Funnily I was at a New York pizza joint yesterday lunchtime, and had to veto several of the pizza options I fancied because they had added pineapple to the offering
    isam said:

    Munin said:

    Sorry folks, I've asked this question twice already but not received a response and I'm really interested to know the answer.

    A previous PB post showed just how bad betting markets have been at predicting important political events, like Trump and Brexit.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/

    Is there any solid evidence on the predictive power of political betting markets?

    Spectacular failures in the last few big events, right enough, along with the polling. The two are probably linked I’d say
    Not an expert but thi site will give you valuable info for constituency bets as it gets nearer to the event but you actually need to know who isn’t talking bollocks
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    TGOHF2 said:
    Hahah parody account stuff.
    He’s arguing the Withdrawal Agreement would breach a law passed by the ERG to prevent a soft Brexit
    Yes, but if parliament wants to approve the WA, it could amend or repeal the relevant law pretty easily surely?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Hahah parody account stuff.
    He’s arguing the Withdrawal Agreement would breach a law passed by the ERG to prevent a soft Brexit
    Yes, but if parliament wants to approve the WA, it could amend or repeal the relevant law pretty easily surely?
    Can parliament do anything ‘pretty easilly’?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    One more day of fine dining in NYC and I shall be aboard the good ship Queen Mary and mostly off the internet. What's the betting it will be resolved by the time I reach Southampton?

    Approximately the same as TSE eating a pineapple pizza.
    Funnily I was at a New York pizza joint yesterday lunchtime, and had to veto several of the pizza options I fancied because they had added pineapple to the offering
    isam said:

    Munin said:

    Sorry folks, I've asked this question twice already but not received a response and I'm really interested to know the answer.

    A previous PB post showed just how bad betting markets have been at predicting important political events, like Trump and Brexit.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/

    Is there any solid evidence on the predictive power of political betting markets?

    Spectacular failures in the last few big events, right enough, along with the polling. The two are probably linked I’d say
    Not an expert but thi site will give you valuable info for constituency bets as it gets nearer to the event but you actually need to know who isn’t talking bollocks
    Separating the signal from the noise eh?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,892

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Nothing happening - ongoing...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Negotiators are aleing and will move on to the optics soon.
  • Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
  • Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Not me. I haven't a clue with all the noise and contradictory opinions

    Should be clearer in the next two days and from the joint announcement at the end of the EU council on friday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    The next one likely won't be, certainly not for a few years
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    The nearest anyones got to a deal is when you went to the bar and ordered a drink and (hopefully) paid for it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    Bootie-gig even better.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Nobody will know until at least tomorrow at the earliest
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    isam said:

    nichomar said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    One more day of fine dining in NYC and I shall be aboard the good ship Queen Mary and mostly off the internet. What's the betting it will be resolved by the time I reach Southampton?

    Approximately the same as TSE eating a pineapple pizza.
    Funnily I was at a New York pizza joint yesterday lunchtime, and had to veto several of the pizza options I fancied because they had added pineapple to the offering
    isam said:

    Munin said:

    Sorry folks, I've asked this question twice already but not received a response and I'm really interested to know the answer.

    A previous PB post showed just how bad betting markets have been at predicting important political events, like Trump and Brexit.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/

    Is there any solid evidence on the predictive power of political betting markets?

    Spectacular failures in the last few big events, right enough, along with the polling. The two are probably linked I’d say
    Not an expert but thi site will give you valuable info for constituency bets as it gets nearer to the event but you actually need to know who isn’t talking bollocks
    Separating the signal from the noise eh?
    Well yes but it’s up to people to do their own research but after many years watching and participating on here some people are in the know. I was going to name those who are but its up to you who you believe. Obviously I always accept malc’s view on Scotland andHYUFD on life in epping forest but afterthat it is up to you
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News: no deal tonight.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,273
    edited October 2019
    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I feel for the poor sods (who you’ll never have heard of) who are doing all the hard graft crawling through the legal text line by line and doing all the details all night long.
  • Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    It's of Maltese origin.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Johnson hopes that everyone will sign up to the deal without being told what the deal is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    Bootie-gig even better.....
    Americans have weird names.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    Bootie-gig even better.....
    I still think he is the former Veet Voojagig of HHGTTG fame.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Negotiators are aleing and will move on to the optics soon.
    Very wise. I know how they feel.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    spudgfsh said:

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    The nearest anyones got to a deal is when you went to the bar and ordered a drink and (hopefully) paid for it.
    😁
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited October 2019

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
    Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.

    Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    I feel for the poor sods (who you’ll never have heard of) who are doing all the hard graft crawling through the legal text line by line and doing all the details all night long.

    Indeed. I know from my job that there comes a point where the words start to blend into one another and you need to make a beeline for the nearest hostelry.
  • Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    Bootie-gig even better.....
    Americans have weird names.
    The Saxe-Coburg and Gothas say hello.
  • TGOHF2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
    Given that Boris Johnson and his allies have repeatedly said they will break the law and ignore the Benn Bill you can understand why some people want to take pre-emptive action against the chap who made the Queen commit a unlawful fact.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nichomar said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    Hahah parody account stuff.
    He’s arguing the Withdrawal Agreement would breach a law passed by the ERG to prevent a soft Brexit
    Yes, but if parliament wants to approve the WA, it could amend or repeal the relevant law pretty easily surely?
    Can parliament do anything ‘pretty easilly’?
    If there are the votes to approve the WA, yes. It's that part I don't think will happen, rendering the other part moot. But if there's political will to pass the WA, contradiction with another piece of legislation will not stymie that will.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,060

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    And death threats
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    FF43 said:

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Johnson hopes that everyone will sign up to the deal without being told what the deal is.
    Of course, it’s the wisest strategy - close your eyes, sign here, think of England.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited October 2019

    TGOHF2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
    Given that Boris Johnson and his allies have repeatedly said they will break the law and ignore the Benn Bill you can understand why some people want to take pre-emptive action against the chap who made the Queen commit a unlawful fact.
    Why doesn’t he stand as an MP if he wants to run the county.

  • CatMan said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    And death threats
    Indeed, but smearing Mr Maugham allows Brexiteers their daily bit of frottaging against the establishment (sic).
  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    Or even beter...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_&_County_Secretarial_College
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
    Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.

    Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
    No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?

    What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
    Because they are not true believers, they are traitors to the conservative cause and must be expelled and replaced by cloned images of Marcus Fysh
  • TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
    Given that Boris Johnson and his allies have repeatedly said they will break the law and ignore the Benn Bill you can understand why some people want to take pre-emptive action against the chap who made the Queen commit a unlawful fact.
    Why doesn’t he stand as an MP if he wants to run the county.

    He doesn't want to run the country, just wants to ensure those that do, do not break the law.

    These precedents will be useful will be a godsend if Corbyn and his ilk ever get in to power.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
    What's good for the goose is nothing to do with the gander!

    - Ye Olde Proverbes (Borisovian vershun)
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
    He went to Pembroke College.

    Place is an utter dump, turns out Viktor Orbán is also an alumnus.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    Gabs2 said:

    It is pronounced BOOT-UH-JEDGE for those asking.

    So why isn't it spelt that way? Buttygeeg is a lot easier to say.
    It's of Maltese origin.
    Chocolate on the outside and a honeycomb centre?
  • Tories who voted x 3 for May's deal now voting against Boris' ? Looking at the list I'd say between 0 and 4. The factors will be quite how ' Hard ' the PD is and whether the deal is going down anyway. If the PD is fluff and the deal is going to pass I'd say 0 or 1 depending on how Amber Rudd sees her future. As she walked rather than had the whip removed she's in by far the weakest position.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
    Given that Boris Johnson and his allies have repeatedly said they will break the law and ignore the Benn Bill you can understand why some people want to take pre-emptive action against the chap who made the Queen commit a unlawful fact.
    Why doesn’t he stand as an MP if he wants to run the county.

    He doesn't want to run the country, just wants to ensure those that do, do not break the law.

    These precedents will be useful will be a godsend if Corbyn and his ilk ever get in to power.
    Introducing a new bill that replaces old laws isn’t breaking the law.

    He also isn’t genuine about those motives otherwise he’d be out making citizen’s arrests on Green Party MPs at XR.
  • Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
    As Johnson and the ERG MPs still backed Brexit with No Deal over further extension, EUref2 or revoke.

    While you also support expelling Labour MPs who vote for any Boris Brexit Deal, I assume you do not back expelling Labour MPs committed to back Remain in all circumstances or revoke against official Labour policy?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited October 2019
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
    Well my daughters degree is from there so I don’t knock it, we can’t actually say Oxford is a brilliant place to develop broad minded analytical MPs with an ability to plan in detail and have a broad empathy with the general population.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
    He was at Oxford.. the rest best left out./..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
    He went to Pembroke College.

    Place is an utter dump, turns out Viktor Orbán is also an alumnus.
    So he wasn’t at the proper university in Oxford?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    At least lawyer boy has stopped pretending he wants a deal. On surprised Cherry hasn't jumped on the latest bandwagon, and the Miller woman
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    If it were not possible Barnier surely would have stated that unambiguously, so I don't really see what the point of that statement is - if people think an extension is necessary no matter what, there's no need to dance around it.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
    Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.

    Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
    No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?

    What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
    Catholic majority Carnlough? :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
    Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.

    Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
    No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?

    What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
    Sadly was in the wrong direction.

    Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.

    Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.

    Also we are playing in the Rugby World Cup.
  • Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    I recall a recent R4 prog suggested Cameron has quite the fan club in Catalonia due to him going along with a legally recognised referendum. TSE and Catalans may be the last Cameroons.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019

    TGOHF2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    one question, why?
    He’s making loadsamoney out of it.
    Fake news, he's repeatedly said he's doing this pro bono publico and is in fact costing him money.
    He doesn’t want parliament to debate a deal on Friday ?

    Stinking hypocrite.
    Given that Boris Johnson and his allies have repeatedly said they will break the law and ignore the Benn Bill you can understand why some people want to take pre-emptive action against the chap who made the Queen commit a unlawful fact.
    Why doesn’t he stand as an MP if he wants to run the county.

    He doesn't want to run the country, just wants to ensure those that do, do not break the law.

    These precedents will be useful will be a godsend if Corbyn and his ilk ever get in to power.
    Parliament never repeals old laws or parts of old laws when approving a new one?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.

    Follow our glorious Leader's example and write two headers then use the one that makes you look the most prophetic.... ;)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Why should they suffer that fate given that Johnson and the ERG group MPs were not treated like that when they failed to support Theresa May's Deal?
    As Johnson and the ERG MPs still backed Brexit with No Deal over further extension, EUref2 or revoke.

    While you also support expelling Labour MPs who vote for any Boris Brexit Deal, I assume you do not back expelling Labour MPs committed to back Remain in all circumstances or revoke against official Labour policy?
    But many of the ERG MPs voted against Mays Deal three times - indeed Johnson did so twice. Why should others be expelled for failing to do so on a single occasion?If May's Deal returned to the House, they would support it again.
  • nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    He is 'Oxford-educated'
    Ah, he went to Oxford Brookes.
    So he was at the proper university in Oxford?
    Well my daughters degree is from there so I don’t knock it, we can’t actually say Oxford is a brilliant place to develop broad minded analytical MPs with an ability to plan in detail and have a broad empathy with the general population.
    There is no better proof of the quality of Oxford University than the fact that Vernon Bogdanor considers David Cameron to be the best student he ever taught.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    TGOHF2 said:
    Er... Doesn't that go against Supreme Court ruling on Crown Vs Millar?

    I thought the whole point of Gina Millar's original litigation was so Parliament has the final say on any deal or WA?
  • Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.

    Also we are playing in the Rugby World Cup.
    That's part of my plans, as is going to Old Trafford on Sunday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
    On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.

    With the NDP now saying they prefer a coalition with the Liberals to allowing the Conservatives to form a Government, the likeliest outcome is Trudeau stays in office propped up by the NDP and the Greens even if he loses his majority
  • Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.

    Follow our glorious Leader's example and write two headers then use the one that makes you look the most prophetic.... ;)
    Ooh, if he loses the vote on Saturday and publish the piece comparing Boris Johnson to Neville Chamberlain and the Norway Debate?

    I like your thinking.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Tories who voted x 3 for May's deal now voting against Boris' ? Looking at the list I'd say between 0 and 4.

    Probably needs to be same or fewer than the number of Lab yes votes.


    Guto Bebb said he thought 6 to 8 of those 21 would vote against.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
    On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.

    With the NDP now saying they prefer a coalition with the Liberals to allowing the Conservatives to form a Government the likeliest outcome is Trudeau stays in office propped up by the NDP and the Greens even if he loses his majority
    I'm agreeing with one of your posts!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504

    Personally I'd prefer if there wasn't a Saturday sitting of Parliament.

    Would bugger up my plans for writing my threads.

    Also we are playing in the Rugby World Cup.
    That's part of my plans, as is going to Old Trafford on Sunday.
    The sport this weekend is mouthwatering - with the exception of the Liverpool/United game which has been awful in recent years. I hope that this time is different and you enjoy the game.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,892

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    I recall a recent R4 prog suggested Cameron has quite the fan club in Catalonia due to him going along with a legally recognised referendum. TSE and Catalans may be the last Cameroons.
    Indzeed, I remember the coverage of the independista demos in Barcelona ornamented with photos of the fortunate Mr Cameron.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited October 2019

    FF43 said:

    Can someone summarise where we are with the deal. Been working like a dog and now in the pub.

    Johnson hopes that everyone will sign up to the deal without being told what the deal is.
    Of course, it’s the wisest strategy - close your eyes, sign here, think of England.
    The real reason of course is that Johnson will shaft everyone: the ERG, the DUP, left behind Leavers, Remainers and those that stuck it out with May's Deal. But not all at the same time.

    Right now he's concentrating on shafting the DUP.
  • The DUP will be fascinating. Unionism has a history of sucessful schism. It's quite plausible for a figure to break with the party over a betrayal and forge a sucessful career out if it. I suspect that means the group of 10 MPs have a far higher internal threshold to reach common positions. There is also a small but non trivial possibility a Unionist politican seen as having sold out could be killed by paramilitaries further down the road.

    While it's impossible to feel a shred of human sympathy for them and most of the Unionist community deserve the shafting they are about to get I don't envy them tonight.

    Of course they were consumed by hubris backing Leave in the circumstances. But which of us hasn't been at some point since the fateful Bloomberg speech ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited October 2019

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    I recall a recent R4 prog suggested Cameron has quite the fan club in Catalonia due to him going along with a legally recognised referendum. TSE and Catalans may be the last Cameroons.
    The Libyans are huge fans of Cameron, as are quite a few people from Derry, including Edward Daly.

    I hope Westminster looks at Spain and sees the roadmap on how not to deal with any future Scottish or Irish independence plans.
  • Live pictures from the centre of Barcelona with cars on fire

    Jailing the separatists was plain stupid
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    Scott_P said:
    The PB ‘mood’ always assures that a deal will pass, so far it’s been wrong every single time. I’ll believe it when I see it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Tories who voted x 3 for May's deal now voting against Boris' ? Looking at the list I'd say between 0 and 4. The factors will be quite how ' Hard ' the PD is and whether the deal is going down anyway. If the PD is fluff and the deal is going to pass I'd say 0 or 1 depending on how Amber Rudd sees her future. As she walked rather than had the whip removed she's in by far the weakest position.

    So, if we start out by assuming all those who backed MV3 continue to do so, knock off say 5 for ex-Tories, add on, what, 20 spartans, add on miracle of miracles all the DUP and maybe 2 more Labour votes, minus Sylvia Hermon perhaps, assume the 4 abstainers at MV3 go agains and you get

    312 For
    322 Against

    Close but no cigar?

    Interestingly 200 have said Yes to all three votes, 342 No to all three.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    Is that Trudeau on the far right?
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?

    Very brave of MPs to consider it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has the EU made any comment on the situation in Barcelona and Spain in general?
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    I recall a recent R4 prog suggested Cameron has quite the fan club in Catalonia due to him going along with a legally recognised referendum. TSE and Catalans may be the last Cameroons.
    Indzeed, I remember the coverage of the independista demos in Barcelona ornamented with photos of the fortunate Mr Cameron.
    One of the Catalan leaders was asked how Madrid should deal with the Catalan independence movement, their response was 'Speak to Mr Cameron.'

    Only an idiot would say the Indyref wasn't free and fair.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    From his comments to Andrew Neil, it appears far from certain that Philip Hammond will vote for Johnson's Deal. Others such as Gauke and Greening might well take a similar view.

    Then he and they will likely be expelled from the Tory party, never mind have the whip restored
    Since the Tory Party seems to be writing off the moderates anyway.... that is hardly likely to be a disincentive.

    How did your day go? The weather was nice enough in Belfast.
    Well fine but thus ends their political career and they can be replaced by pro Brexit Tory candidates.

    Yes was good weather, spent some time clambering around the rocks at Giant's Causeway, then went to the whisky distillery in Bushmills, then had a look at Dunluce Castle, then headed to Portrush followed by coffee and cake in Portstewart and finished off at the memorial in Ballykelly church which was poignant and well done.
    No Carrick-a-Rede bridge then?

    What is tomorrow's iternary? Antrim Coast Road? If so, stop in Carnlough.
    Sadly was in the wrong direction.

    Tomorrow not doing too much as heading back via Belfast ferry Friday morning, mainly pottering around Enniskillen and going to some museums and packing.

    Will have to come again sometime and do a few more things like those you suggest
    Where are you staying tonight?

    Northern Ireland is seriously underrated as a tourist destination.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
    On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.
    A coincidence that getting rid of FPTP was abandoned once Trudeau got in to office I am sure, but convenient.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019

    Live pictures from the centre of Barcelona with cars on fire

    Jailing the separatists was plain stupid

    I agree, but one can't blame the judges. They were just following the constitution which says that any action that might help to break up Spain is unacceptable and has to be severely punished.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    Is there anything to the Buttigieg hype? Someone said he has good organisation in Iowa and oodles of cash, but is it working?

    Per 538 podcast: He is polling higher in Iowa and New Hampshire than nationally. He has money. Biden isn't counting on winning IA or NH, so Buttigieg has the chance to max out the moderate white vote in those states, which is not insignificant. So he's no Warren but you can see how he builds momentum, especially if Biden falters and/or the establishment 'gets' Warren.

  • Scott_P said:
    The PB ‘mood’ always assures that a deal will pass, so far it’s been wrong every single time. I’ll believe it when I see it.
    I agree and think it is very much 50/50

    Of course the EU may have a big role in bringing this to a head by granting a maximum extension of three months to deal, no deal, or a GE but not providing enough time to June 2020 for a referendum

    The next few days will be fascinating and so will the weekend polls

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    TGOHF2 said:

    Imagine the rage of the public if MPs vote down this deal ?

    Very brave of MPs to consider it.

    Rage of which public? Yes, people are sick to death of all this and so on, but million still want to remain, which requires a deal not pass.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Live pictures from the centre of Barcelona with cars on fire

    Jailing the separatists was plain stupid

    There are a lot of pensioners on the streets in Madrid complaining about their pensions but they won’t burn cars or get headlines.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bad news for Trudeau. He's been endorsed by one of Remain's brightest stars:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50074603

    The Liberals' average poll rating has slipped below 30% in most recent polls. They got 39.4% last time. It's going to be difficult for Trudeau to stay in office unless the surveys are completely wrong.
    On current polling the Liberals still lead in Ontario and Quebec, both marginal ridings rich, even if the Conservatives lead in the national popular vote thanks to a big lead in Alberta. So Liberals win most seats but Conservatives win most votes looks possible.

    With the NDP now saying they prefer a coalition with the Liberals to allowing the Conservatives to form a Government the likeliest outcome is Trudeau stays in office propped up by the NDP and the Greens even if he loses his majority
    I'm agreeing with one of your posts!
    Well occasionally it does happen.

    Obama's endorsement also likely helps Trudeau with youth turnout

    https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1184528998669389824?s=20
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    This is always the problem gain MPs on one side lose them on the other .

    Those Labour MPs who want to vote for a deal need a ladder and Bozos deal kicks it away .

    Any Labour MP voting for the deal without a few crumbs to justify it are toast and will be deselected. At this rate Bozo will be lucky to get at best 10 Labour MPs and that’s being generous.

  • Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Will Spain be held together by force?
    Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
    BY JASON WEBSTER"

    https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/

    Madrid don’t muck about.

    By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
    No, she and they wouldn't. It was a referendum approved by the London government. Big difference.
    I recall a recent R4 prog suggested Cameron has quite the fan club in Catalonia due to him going along with a legally recognised referendum. TSE and Catalans may be the last Cameroons.
    The Libyans are huge fans of Cameron, as are quite a few people from Derry, including Edward Daly.

    I hope Westminster looks at Spain and sees the roadmap on how not to deal with any future Scottish or Irish independence plans.
    With HYUFD as a coming man I wouldn't bet on it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    As predicted

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50067575


    A British family detained in the US after crossing the border from Canada intentionally entered the country illegally, officials have said.
    They said the vehicle was captured on video "slowly and deliberately" driving through a ditch to enter the US.
    Two adults in the vehicle had previously been denied travel authorisation to the US, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said.

    Travellers gonna travel..

    The back story suggests the Brits may not have been as innocent as first impressions might suggest. They had previously applied for ESTAs but been rejected. The car was very full (eight occupants, I read somewhere). And its movements were tracked carefully by the US authorities and appear to have been pretty deliberate.
    And $16,000 in cash .

    A quick google of the surname is enlightening.
    I get a load of businesses near here, a stack of NY lawyers, and a lot of articles about tennis.
    I get hundreds of articles regurgitating the family’s statement

    I guess Michael and Grace Connors are the ones to focus on
This discussion has been closed.