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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate
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In fact, I think everyone hammers Biden.
Incoherence is not an attractive quality in a candidate.
Let me guess the DUP causing the problems .
Boris's antics these last weeks have added £ to the cost of my trip.
And I’ve had sepsis. NOT FUN.
For Buttigieg to have a real chance, he needs to beat Biden in Iowa. If you read the New York Times piece, he has by far the best physical organisation there, and is clearly getting traction. Biden also has relatively weak infrastructure in Iowa, and that matters in a caucus state. (See Obama's path the Presidency.)
Caucus states also matter with the 15% bar at the prescinct level. This means second preferences matter. If your Harris or Kloubocher supporter realises her woman is going to get 15%, then they join another grouping. And Buttigieg does very well on second preferences.
I think Buttigieg probably beats Biden in Iowa, and may even (say 5-1 chance) win the state ahead of Warren.
Now that's far, far from a certainty. But we need to remember the extent to which early contests define who the candidates that matter are.
A previous PB post showed just how bad betting markets have been at predicting important political events, like Trump and Brexit.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/10/when-the-betting-markets-got-it-wrong/
Is there any solid evidence on the predictive power of political betting markets?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50067575
A British family detained in the US after crossing the border from Canada intentionally entered the country illegally, officials have said.
They said the vehicle was captured on video "slowly and deliberately" driving through a ditch to enter the US.
Two adults in the vehicle had previously been denied travel authorisation to the US, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said.
Travellers gonna travel..
A Scotsman walked into a pub... (there is usually an Englishman and an Irishman in this joke but they're still in the World Cup.)
A quick google of the surname is enlightening.
I am actually pining for a cup of tea made with water somewhere near boiling point when it hits the teabag.
Well, the Dance of the Seven Veils this isn't and I certainly feel somewhat overdressed at this stage.
The backpedalling and voltes face of the key players is wondrous to behold and there will be those who, when they see the new "Deal", will wonder why if this Deal is so good why Theresa May's WA was so bad.
Now, of course, we have increased fatigue and the ditch. As I said earlier, tired people often make bad decisions and tired people often support bad decisions. The sheer ennui of the people has become a frantic desire to agree to almost anything in order to get this "over with".
So everyone wants a Deal and many seem set to abandon whatever principals they once had in order to get a Deal and ignore everything they've said in the past three years to ensure a Deal "gets over the line".
As someone else has said, this is now about Boris and his personal political survival - he's not interested in the ditch and remember he will always say whatever the audience in front of him wants to hear. The interests of the country seem now to be a poor second to that.
That's politics but as I misquoted Churchill earlier this isn't the end or even the beginning of the end. I'm not even sure it's the end of the beginning either. I do suspect once we have agreed the WA and formally left the line toward the EU will soften considerably and the PD will almost certainly be full of good intentions and kind words.
Think I know where: https://www.google.com/maps/@49.0023616,-122.4294834,3a,75y,232.74h,83.12t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1saNfS0sLwqIBOcecXwgIBYg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
Across the ditch is the US.
https://www.channel4.com/news/new-ira-says-border-infrastructure-would-be-legitimate-target-for-attack
but it's worth watching the video
I've blown my cash on this, but for precisely these sort of reasons I'd backed Gabbard.
I'd quite like to know how to pronounce Buttigieg's name. We may need to know.
Unfortunately I replaced it with a SMART meter before fully realising what I had.
https://www.google.com/maps/@49.002136,-122.7535906,3a,75y,18.07h,86.35t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s3wYrrTiAnsDeUwsJ2VRWpQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656
Madrid's brutal response to Catalan separatists is typical of a country forged by violence
BY JASON WEBSTER"
https://unherd.com/2019/10/will-spain-be-held-together-by-force/
I think/thought she is/was the one Democrat in the race that'd beat Trump.
The government might need to amend that before any vote otherwise it could make that vote illegal .
Holiday money??????
Oh, @IanB2, you think you know exchange rate pain? What you think of as pain is merely a shadow. Pain has a face: and I have such sights to show you...
(Foreshadowing...
I was going to post this earlier today but was out, so here goes. This is for those interested in fixed odds.
If you think Pete Buttigieg is going to be the Democratic nominee then you're presumably tempted by the 8/1 currently on offer from Ladbrokes.
But wait a moment.
If you scroll down you'll see the following two specials:
Trump to beat Buttigieg 25/1
Buttigigieg to beat Trump 25/1 (was 33/1 this morning)
So this post assumes you think Buttigieg is going to get the nomination. If so, you're then gambling on whether Trump is likely to be impeached prior to November next year. If he's not then these 25/1 bets are much better than the current 8/1 and well worth the few extra months wait.
I'd say the 25/1 looks like a good bet. And, dare I say it, an obvious arb. Bet on both and it's a winner.
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/1184530510304944129?s=21
The only question is whether filmmakers (dress left) can make it objectively enough to appeal to both sides.
Given the unlikelihood of any WA getting passed, it might be better to let it get voted down than quibble about whether parliament can even consider it, the same as it would have been simpler for the government to seek parliamentary approval for A50 being triggered, since they would always have done so, rather than be forced to do it.
It looks desperate.
By their standards Sturgeon would already be in jail and we’d have truckloads of police on the streets of Glasgow and Dundee.
I guess Hammond and co might be waiting for guarantees of getting the Whip back and reselection? I'd say they're much more likely to vote for the deal than against.
They rebelled over No Deal, and he wanted to seriously threaten it to get a Deal, so the rationale will have expired if a Deal is secured. Readmission (no hard feelings) would be conditional on voting for it.
Plus, he needs the votes and the unity.
In the noughties academics were pretty solid in saying they were good, but since the post 2014 problems a slight reappraisal has taken place. There are many good academics who have written on the subject: Christopher Wliezen, Will Jennings, there's quite a list. But academic debate did rather get bogged down as wo whether adjusted polls beat adjusted bets.
One academic that springs to mind is Leighton Vaughan Williams: if you Google him and "House Of Lords" you can get the testimony he gave regarding political betting to the enquiry.
One thing I will say: the further away one is from "most votes", the more unreliable indicators become. So "most votes" beats "most seats" beats "overall majority" beats "government formation", for example.
There is also the question on how exactly do you judge the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction, which is a whole subject in itself...
The whip will only be restored to rebel conservatves who vote for the deal
Mind you, I am not convinced there will be a deal to vote on this weekend
Without that guarantee, it's not a very attractive offer to them to say "even if you vote for this sub-optimal deal, your political career is still over".
However, it looks increasingly likely the EU will grant only a short extension and certainly not long enough to organise a referendum. Indeed there are EU countries, France among them, who do not want an anti EU country in the EU and the UK is top of that list