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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)

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Comments

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The odds available are too skinny or too big?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    CNN consensus seems to be that Buttegeig and Klobuchar are competing for the moderate lane for if/when Biden drops out.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Betway still has 33/1 against Pete Buttigieg winning the presidency (although that will likely soon change as he is only 11/1 to be nominee).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    PaulM said:

    CNN consensus seems to be that Buttegeig and Klobuchar are competing for the moderate lane for if/when Biden drops out.

    Klobuchar in particular needs to make sure she is still in the race when (and if) that happens.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Fourth like Labour in Scotland in the next GE......
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:


    Do I understand correctly that Warren wants to split the App Store away from Apple, AWS from Amazon and Google from Alphabet? Most politicians would kill to have just one such company driving high income jobs, domestic r&d and gdp. Why is she so keen to blow up the NASDAQ?

    If I was an Amazon and an Alphabet shareholder I don't think I'd be that bothered about my two great companies being split up into four great companies. The concentration of power issues here are real.
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    edited October 2019
    Quick debate scorecard:

    Bernie Sanders - 7/10. While I'm not a great fan of the content, he was articulate and had a lot of energy.

    Kamala Harris - 3/10. Was she at the debate? I didn't notice her.

    Tulsi Gabbard - 4/10. Sensible but stilted. Lacked any kind of connection with the audience.

    Andrew Yang - 6/10. Better than I expected. Still going nowhere.

    Tom Steyer - 4/10. Had some passion. But ultimately, who is he? And why is he still in the race?

    Beto O'Rourke - 4/10. I had high hopes for Beto. Those hopes were dashed. He needs to quit the race.

    Elizabeth Warren - 6/10. She started strong. But her schtick got irritating. She was the focus of a lot of attacks, so she spoke a lot.

    Pete Buttigieg - 7.5/10. He was great on foreign policy and his service. His healthcare plan looks sensible. He talks with enormous sincerity.

    Joe Biden - 5/10. He really is sleepy Joe. "I want to abolish capital gains tax. I mean I want to increase capital gains tax." "And thirdly... I mean secondly... No, thirdly." When he's on point he's persuasive, but it's fair to say he's not good on his feet.

    Cory Booker - 6.5/10. You know, I really liked Cory tonight. But he's probably not going anywhere.

    Julian Castro - 5/10. Anonymous except for one good zinger: the Trump adminstration's policy is locking up children in cages while letting ISIS fighters go free.

    Amy Klobucher. 5/10. She speaks a lot of sense. But has no gravitas and a weird smirk.

    Did I miss anyone?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    rcs1000 said:

    Quick debate scorecard:

    Bernie Sanders - 7/10. While I'm not a great fan of the content, he was articulate and had a lot of energy.

    Kamala Harris - 3/10. Was she at the debate? I didn't notice her.

    Tulsi Gabbard - 4/10. Sensible but stilted. Lacked any kind of connection with the audience.

    Andrew Yang - 6/10. Better than I expected. Still going nowhere.

    Tom Steyer - 4/10. Had some passion. But ultimately, who is he? And why is he still in the race?

    Beto O'Rourke - 4/10. I had high hopes for Beto. Those hopes were dashed. He needs to quit the race.

    Elizabeth Warren - 6/10. She started strong. But her schtick got irritating. She was the focus of a lot of attacks, so she spoke a lot.

    Pete Buttigieg - 7.5/10. He was great on foreign policy and his service. His healthcare plan looks sensible. He talks with enormous sincerity.

    Joe Biden - 5/10. He really is sleepy Joe. "I want to abolish capital gains tax. I mean I want to increase capital gains tax." "And thirdly... I mean secondly... No, thirdly." When he's on point he's persuasive, but it's fair to say he's not good on his feet.

    Cory Booker - 6.5/10. You know, I really liked Cory tonight. But he's probably not going anywhere.

    Julian Castro - 5/10. Anonymous except for one good zinger: the Trump adminstration's policy is locking up children in cages while letting ISIS fighters go free.

    Amy Klobucher. 5/10. She speaks a lot of sense. But has no gravitas and a weird smirk.

    Did I miss anyone?

    If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Quick debate scorecard:

    Bernie Sanders - 7/10. While I'm not a great fan of the content, he was articulate and had a lot of energy.

    Kamala Harris - 3/10. Was she at the debate? I didn't notice her.

    Tulsi Gabbard - 4/10. Sensible but stilted. Lacked any kind of connection with the audience.

    Andrew Yang - 6/10. Better than I expected. Still going nowhere.

    Tom Steyer - 4/10. Had some passion. But ultimately, who is he? And why is he still in the race?

    Beto O'Rourke - 4/10. I had high hopes for Beto. Those hopes were dashed. He needs to quit the race.

    Elizabeth Warren - 6/10. She started strong. But her schtick got irritating. She was the focus of a lot of attacks, so she spoke a lot.

    Pete Buttigieg - 7.5/10. He was great on foreign policy and his service. His healthcare plan looks sensible. He talks with enormous sincerity.

    Joe Biden - 5/10. He really is sleepy Joe. "I want to abolish capital gains tax. I mean I want to increase capital gains tax." "And thirdly... I mean secondly... No, thirdly." When he's on point he's persuasive, but it's fair to say he's not good on his feet.

    Cory Booker - 6.5/10. You know, I really liked Cory tonight. But he's probably not going anywhere.

    Julian Castro - 5/10. Anonymous except for one good zinger: the Trump adminstration's policy is locking up children in cages while letting ISIS fighters go free.

    Amy Klobucher. 5/10. She speaks a lot of sense. But has no gravitas and a weird smirk.

    Did I miss anyone?

    If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?
    Before tonight, I'd have said Tulsi Gabbard. But she bombed.

    So I'd go for Midwestern moderate who is not showing signs of mental degradation.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    moonshine said:

    If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?

    I would do Cory Booker or Amy KLOBUCHAR.

    Buttigieg is inexperienced, he doesn't have much of a record, and he's terrible at defending what record he has. He's definitely got talent and he might get better, but why risk it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    edited October 2019
    How did the 4th in the betting do tonight, you know - Hillary Clinton ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Pulpstar said:

    How did the 4th in the betting do tonight, you know - Hillary Clinton ?

    Nobody laid a glove on her, and she effortlessly handled every question she was asked.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    Pulpstar said:

    How did the 4th in the betting do tonight, you know - Hillary Clinton ?

    She's slipped to fifth. The being markets clearly felt she didn't perform well today.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Scott_P said:
    Shouldn’t she be concentrating her efforts on her own primary challenge in New York?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Bernie with the squad endorsements. Interesting !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    moonshine said:

    If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?

    I would do Cory Booker or Amy KLOBUCHAR.

    Buttigieg is inexperienced, he doesn't have much of a record, and he's terrible at defending what record he has. He's definitely got talent and he might get better, but why risk it?
    Cory was impressive today. He's very articulate.

    I just don't see how he gets into the top tier in the next three months. With Amy there is a credible (if unlikely) path. With Cory, is there?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Shouldn’t she be concentrating her efforts on her own primary challenge in New York?
    I doubt she'll be seriously troubled.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    If you were picking a candidate with the sole aim of beating Trump in an election, which would you pick?

    I would do Cory Booker or Amy KLOBUCHAR.

    Buttigieg is inexperienced, he doesn't have much of a record, and he's terrible at defending what record he has. He's definitely got talent and he might get better, but why risk it?
    Cory was impressive today. He's very articulate.

    I just don't see how he gets into the top tier in the next three months. With Amy there is a credible (if unlikely) path. With Cory, is there?
    Yes, I agree. That's the problem for all the moderates - first they're bed-blocked by Biden, then next in line is Buttigieg who has a dedicated fanbase but is probably not the guy, so it's just hard to break through. You can just about tell the story with Baemy because she has an Iowa angle, but it's not clear how Booker does it.

    OTOH I think John Kerry and John McCain both had quite low polling this far out. The moderate voters just need to coalesce around someone. And against an incumbent they usually do, so the strategy is probably just to back a bunch of moderates, or lay the immoderate favourite.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.

    And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.

    Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I didn’t see the debate. This was the FT’s take:

    https://twitter.com/edwardgluce/status/1184336123763527680?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Foxy said:

    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.

    See above. How can a company (Apple) with a 10% market share and only just maintaining third place in units sold, be a monopoly? She’s not in the right. She is either politicking to the extreme fringe or is a moron.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.

    And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.

    Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.

    I thought that last paragraph was going to be about Gibraltar.....I suspect BJ will fall foul on the detail of any proposals....once the DUP, ERG, Scots Nats start digging into whatever has been offered up we will be back to square one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On a different market, those betting on next Speaker may find this useful:

    https://twitter.com/hansardsociety/status/1184178790051860481?s=21
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.

    See above. How can a company (Apple) with a 10% market share and only just maintaining third place in units sold, be a monopoly? She’s not in the right. She is either politicking to the extreme fringe or is a moron.
    Apple has 41% of the US smartphone market, twice that of its nearest rival, but that is just hardware, the monopolistic approach comes from its control of the app store etc.

    https://www.counterpointresearch.com/us-market-smartphone-share/

    Similarly Amazon. Walmart has 8% of the US physical retail market, but Amazon has 49% of US Online sales, and uses its Market place to gather information on smaller businesses then screws them by pinching their customers.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited October 2019
    I’ve asked Betfair if they can add new months for the monthly general election market but they tell me they only do that at year ends, so not to get my hopes up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    I’ve asked Betfair if they can add new months for the monthly general election market but they tell me they only do that at year ends, so not to get my hopes up.

    April or May imo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Great tip, rcs. I’m on Pete already and happy with my position.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I expect we’ll see this mentioned a few times:

    https://twitter.com/squeezyjohn/status/1184172376294133766?s=21
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.

    See above. How can a company (Apple) with a 10% market share and only just maintaining third place in units sold, be a monopoly? She’s not in the right. She is either politicking to the extreme fringe or is a moron.
    Apple has 41% of the US smartphone market, twice that of its nearest rival, but that is just hardware, the monopolistic approach comes from its control of the app store etc.

    https://www.counterpointresearch.com/us-market-smartphone-share/

    Similarly Amazon. Walmart has 8% of the US physical retail market, but Amazon has 49% of US Online sales, and uses its Market place to gather information on smaller businesses then screws them by pinching their customers.

    This is really not the biggest issue. Apple are not a monopoly that is abusing its power, there is plenty of consumer choice and the App Store doesn’t stop people shifting between brands. Plenty are, as shown by the numbers.

    If you think there is a legit issue with the way Apple licenses it’s content (e.g. movies) then tackle that through legislation if needs must. But it’s a legal mindfield and is quickly becoming a non issue anyway as basically everything moves to the streaming model (see recent Apple Arcade launch).

    Warren is like all politicians tackling yesterday’s problem. Breaking up American capitalism’s greatest success of the last 30 years is bananas.

    As for Amazon, online sales represent a whopping 10% of total retail sales, giving it a totally criminal 5% share of the US market. It’s made transactions cheaper, more environmentally efficient, and has exponentially expanded the potential seller-customer links.

    It has a high share of the US online market because domestic opponents still haven’t got their act together. In large swathes of the world (including where I am right now), Amazon is but one of the major online sellers. Having tried them all, it by far offers the most consistent service, with the lowest packaging waste and most transparent t&c’s. It’s a titan of capitalism’s power to transform the world for the better and should be lauded, not hounded.

    Facebook is another matter.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited October 2019

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    Won’t stop nuggets posting what they want to happen before they know anything.

  • https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
  • Two things Boris Johnson and the rest of the Brexit loons have learned about Brexit this week:
    1. A bad deal is better than No Deal
    2. The UK does not hold all the cards
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is there a word for that moment after you close a bet out and are undecided as to whether you did the right thing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:


    Do I understand correctly that Warren wants to split the App Store away from Apple, AWS from Amazon and Google from Alphabet? Most politicians would kill to have just one such company driving high income jobs, domestic r&d and gdp. Why is she so keen to blow up the NASDAQ?

    If I was an Amazon and an Alphabet shareholder I don't think I'd be that bothered about my two great companies being split up into four great companies. The concentration of power issues here are real.
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Is there a word for that moment after you close a bet out and are undecided as to whether you did the right thing?

    FOMO
  • https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Great tip, rcs. I’m on Pete already and happy with my position.

    TMI :hushed:
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Is there a word for that moment after you close a bet out and are undecided as to whether you did the right thing?

    FOMO
    Thank you - that covers it nicely.
  • https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

    The ERG have the option of declaring betrayal and skulking off to the Brexit party. It’s not one I’d take but I’m not a Spartan.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    Hope he doesn't get it. I've backed others and don't really want to put more into this market.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    On topic has Mayor Buttigieg got past that police chief racist nonsense? It may not be critical in very white Iowa but has it not got the capacity to rear up again when the voting goes south?

    I'm just genuinely asking. The last time I latched onto Buttigieg his campaign seemed in serious trouble and I was very surprised to learn that he was recovering as the not so golden oldies at the top of the field stumbled.
  • https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

    The ERG have the option of declaring betrayal and skulking off to the Brexit party. It’s not one I’d take but I’m not a Spartan.

    It's a possibility for one or two of the terminal loons, but most of these jokers are career politicians and are not going to do anything to put their positions as MPs at risk. And, in the end, the simple truth remains: a bad deal really is better than no deal if your prinary aim is to leave the EU. It's just a shame that they have squandered the May deal - which itself was a pig in a poke - to discover that truth. The UK really does not hold all the cards.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!

    I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
  • Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!

    I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.

    We will see. I suspect that the DUP sign-off will be accompanied by a hell of a lot of cash!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

    The ERG have the option of declaring betrayal and skulking off to the Brexit party. It’s not one I’d take but I’m not a Spartan.
    Well you've kept that pretty well hidden!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    RochdalePioneers: "Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!"

    The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Morning everyone. On the bus in a suit today like the sanctimonious liberal elite scum that I am.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

    Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Arlene Foster, Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings are all on a boat. The boat sinks. Who is saved?

    The UK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
    I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
    In fairness, it is true for the DUP. They’ve always been very open about it.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Morning everyone. On the bus in a suit today like the sanctimonious liberal elite scum that I am.

    Send my regards to your driver, I hope gets well soon.......
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    It’s like Election Day on here - zero data but turnout is brisk.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
    I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
    In fairness, it is true for the DUP. They’ve always been very open about it.
    The DUP’s number one priority is the union. If they see the Brexit deal as imperilling that, no amount of dosh is going to buy them off.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    nunuone said:

    Morning everyone. On the bus in a suit today like the sanctimonious liberal elite scum that I am.

    Send my regards to your driver, I hope gets well soon.......
    I assumed he was the driver.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    If the brexiters themselves have got to the position of saying that "a bad deal is better than no deal" I can think of no better fact to pour doubt on the validity of the referendum result.

  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    rcs1000 said:
    One of the few times Tulsi dodnt get the better of her opponent in a heated exchange.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Stocky said:

    RochdalePioneers: "Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!"

    The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.

    Having opened up the deal that could not be reopened and gone through various nights of tough, tough negotations to get a deal by a deadline (admittedly, so that the incoming Commission don't have Brexit on top of their in-tray), why would the EU want to risk it all being thrown in the air again with a "confirmatory" (ie re-run by Remainers) referendum? They can put this to bed now, once and for all.

    Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Stocky said:

    RochdalePioneers: "Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!"

    The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.

    It's the BXP that will be shouting SURRENDER TRAITORS.

    The Benn Act has obviously worked. Without it Bozo would not be negotiating.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:


    Do I understand correctly that Warren wants to split the App Store away from Apple, AWS from Amazon and Google from Alphabet? Most politicians would kill to have just one such company driving high income jobs, domestic r&d and gdp. Why is she so keen to blow up the NASDAQ?

    If I was an Amazon and an Alphabet shareholder I don't think I'd be that bothered about my two great companies being split up into four great companies. The concentration of power issues here are real.
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722
    Sounds like a few MPs are having a nice day out.

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1184359458966818817?s=19
  • https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    The ERG has no choice. They have to take it. The DUP, though, does not. They will need a hell of a lot of money. And we will leave on terms worse than the ones May negotiated. And all so that Boris Johnson can be Prime Minister. I know I am like a broken record, but all Tories should get down on their hands and knees every single day to thank God for Jeremy Corbyn and to pray for his survival.

    The ERG have the option of declaring betrayal and skulking off to the Brexit party. It’s not one I’d take but I’m not a Spartan.
    They won't do it because they have done the maths and know that they would lose their precious safe seats. The Tory Party has been, and continues to be, a convenient Trojan horse for their own nasty brand of nationalism/quasi-fascism
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:


    Do I understand correctly that Warren wants to split the App Store away from Apple, AWS from Amazon and Google from Alphabet? Most politicians would kill to have just one such company driving high income jobs, domestic r&d and gdp. Why is she so keen to blow up the NASDAQ?

    If I was an Amazon and an Alphabet shareholder I don't think I'd be that bothered about my two great companies being split up into four great companies. The concentration of power issues here are real.
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Interesting that Warren mentioned AWS. Cloud computing seems to have got very little attention form politicians so far, despite its vast implications.

    Enabling the average person to “rent” computers that would normally cost tens of thousands to own outright for barely $1/hour could be significant force for good, or evil depending on the approach.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Early start indeed! I’m on a train before that every weekday.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
    Indeed

    and this is where the supporters of "business" dont actually think through the economic consequences. Every so often failing markets need a good shake up.
  • Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    RochdalePioneers: "Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!"

    The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.

    It's the BXP that will be shouting SURRENDER TRAITORS.

    The Benn Act has obviously worked. Without it Bozo would not be negotiating.

    Surely the rainbow LibDem bird suggests that I have no interest in the Labour Party having any luck...

    My point was that Tory dampers have been insisting that the use of divisive language was right as it separates off Johnson and the People from Parliament and the other parties. Except that they are going to end up putting through a deal that is the literal sell out they have spent the last few months attacking.

    One thing that Brexit chanters aren't is open to compromise. They have been told - by Johnson himself! - to beware the kind of compromise that Johnson now clings to as his final lifebelt. They aren't going to reward the Tory party with a HYUFD wet dream majority. Instead they are going to vote for the Brexit Party.

    Ordinarily that gives advantage to the remain aide - split the leave vote as in Peterborough and remain wins. Except that the primary "remain" party is also leave but a kinder gentler leave where Barry Gardiner and Richard Burgon solve the NI issue with some crayons and fuzzy felt and then put the deal to the public whilst Jezbollah makes collages of anti-Jewish memes at a Momentum/Hate rally. So the remain aide is split as well.

    All the more reason not to hold a winter term general election
  • Stocky said:

    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.

    They have honoured the result. It was very close and the "win" was based on a pack of lies. Brexit as a philosophy is a clusterfuck of incoherent bullshit. MPs have therefore honoured the result by continuing in that vein, and also honouring the hung parliament that trumped the referendum result.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    RochdalePioneers: "Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!"

    The LP will have no luck with this line - being the architects of the Benn Act. A better line would be to back the deal but try to insist on a confirmatory referendum.

    It's the BXP that will be shouting SURRENDER TRAITORS.

    The Benn Act has obviously worked. Without it Bozo would not be negotiating.

    Surely the rainbow LibDem bird suggests that I have no interest in the Labour Party having any luck...

    My point was that Tory dampers have been insisting that the use of divisive language was right as it separates off Johnson and the People from Parliament and the other parties. Except that they are going to end up putting through a deal that is the literal sell out they have spent the last few months attacking.

    One thing that Brexit chanters aren't is open to compromise. They have been told - by Johnson himself! - to beware the kind of compromise that Johnson now clings to as his final lifebelt. They aren't going to reward the Tory party with a HYUFD wet dream majority. Instead they are going to vote for the Brexit Party.

    Ordinarily that gives advantage to the remain aide - split the leave vote as in Peterborough and remain wins. Except that the primary "remain" party is also leave but a kinder gentler leave where Barry Gardiner and Richard Burgon solve the NI issue with some crayons and fuzzy felt and then put the deal to the public whilst Jezbollah makes collages of anti-Jewish memes at a Momentum/Hate rally. So the remain aide is split as well.

    All the more reason not to hold a winter term general election
    Brilliant - “a kinder, gentler Leave.”
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    A Warren POTUS and Buttigeig VPOTUS ticket? Although it's rare, recently, that a serious Presidential candidate becomes the VP candidate.
  • Stocky said:

    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.

    They have honoured the result. It was very close and the "win" was based on a pack of lies. Brexit as a philosophy is a clusterfuck of incoherent bullshit. MPs have therefore honoured the result by continuing in that vein, and also honouring the hung parliament that trumped the referendum result.
    Bullshit from start to finish
  • I don't get the DUP point. Johnson has a majority of -45, so if the DUP are on board and nobody else, he loses. Or throw Arlene and the Bigots into Lough Neagh and propose something they hate and everyone else hates and he loses.

    Or, just maybe, Lough the DUP and find something that others may be prepared to compromise on.
  • DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
    Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:


    Do I understand correctly that Warren wants to split the App Store away from Apple, AWS from Amazon and Google from Alphabet? Most politicians would kill to have just one such company driving high income jobs, domestic r&d and gdp. Why is she so keen to blow up the NASDAQ?

    If I was an Amazon and an Alphabet shareholder I don't think I'd be that bothered about my two great companies being split up into four great companies. The concentration of power issues here are real.
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Interesting that Warren mentioned AWS. Cloud computing seems to have got very little attention form politicians so far, despite its vast implications.

    Enabling the average person to “rent” computers that would normally cost tens of thousands to own outright for barely $1/hour could be significant force for good, or evil depending on the approach.
    In the future we are all Generation Rent, with everything owned by a few oligarchs. Our future is as the microserfs of the new aristocrats.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    I think that the Brexit chanters will, whether you like it or not, be guided by "Brexiters in the know like Boris and ERG" and conclude that if they are happy it must be ok. I don`t think that there will be the electoral backlash on the Tories that you think - though am unclear of extent to which Farage will continue to influence the herd.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
    Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
    Whats wrong with you today ? Youve actually said something sensible :smile:
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Rocdale Pioneers - by the way, I `m a liberal myself - but have to say that I`ve lost a bit of faith in the LibDems lately.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    I don't get the DUP point. Johnson has a majority of -45, so if the DUP are on board and nobody else, he loses. Or throw Arlene and the Bigots into Lough Neagh and propose something they hate and everyone else hates and he loses.

    Or, just maybe, Lough the DUP and find something that others may be prepared to compromise on.

    That would make total sense, but the problem is that anything that would attract significant support from the opposition parties would lose support from the right, which imperils both his election plan and his job as Tory leader.
  • DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
    Agreed and this is an area the centre right should attempt to correct. Large corporations need regulation, but definitely not of the Jeremy Corbyn variety which is self defeating as it is based on envy and does no-one any good. They could start by making it illegal for large corporations to keep small suppliers waiting any more 4 weeks for payment. Then look at better tax breaks for small and mid sized companies.
    Whats wrong with you today ? Youve actually said something sensible :smile:
    Thank you for that almost-compliment hehe. It is my business centric centre-right alter ego ;) , which joking aside is completely consistent with my opposition to the business wrecking madness known as Brexit!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    No surprise. The DUP refuse to back anything that could be negotiated with the EU .

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    Stocky said:

    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.

    They have honoured the result. It was very close and the "win" was based on a pack of lies. Brexit as a philosophy is a clusterfuck of incoherent bullshit. MPs have therefore honoured the result by continuing in that vein, and also honouring the hung parliament that trumped the referendum result.
    MPs have done a great job.


    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1184004849710579713?s=19
  • Stocky said:

    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.

    They have honoured the result. It was very close and the "win" was based on a pack of lies. Brexit as a philosophy is a clusterfuck of incoherent bullshit. MPs have therefore honoured the result by continuing in that vein, and also honouring the hung parliament that trumped the referendum result.
    Bullshit from start to finish
    Calm down dear, it was a bit tongue in cheek to respond to the boring nonsense of the previous poster that wants to suggest that all MPs should vote like unthinking automatons, which I always find ludicrous as the same people tend to be supportive when people they agree with rebel against the party line.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.

    See above. How can a company (Apple) with a 10% market share and only just maintaining third place in units sold, be a monopoly? She’s not in the right. She is either politicking to the extreme fringe or is a moron.
    Apple has 41% of the US smartphone market, twice that of its nearest rival, but that is just hardware, the monopolistic approach comes from its control of the app store etc.

    https://www.counterpointresearch.com/us-market-smartphone-share/

    Similarly Amazon. Walmart has 8% of the US physical retail market, but Amazon has 49% of US Online sales, and uses its Market place to gather information on smaller businesses then screws them by pinching their customers.

    ...
    Facebook is another matter.
    Of course.
    But I suspect everyone is getting wound up to no great purpose over this. An incoming Democratic president will have a mountain of things on their agenda, and even if the Senate tips to the Democrats, only a limited ability to get legislation through Congress. They will have to prioritise.

    Is Warren really going to back-burner her healthcare, tax and/or climate change plans to fight a long, complex and ultimately confusing antitrust battle ?
    I doubt it.

    Going after Facebook on privacy issues might be a far simpler and more productive approach.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.

    And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.

    Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.

    Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    moonshine said:

    Foxy said:

    Just watched a few highlights, but it looks like Warren to me. She dominated the speaking time, fizzes with ideas and looks a fighter. The 0.1% will hate her wealth tax and break up of the monopolies. Facebook and other parasites will be powerful enemies, but she has the advantage of being in the right. Dem voters will lap it up.

    Mayor Pete is not value at these prices. Dems are not in the mood for a centrist.

    See above. How can a company (Apple) with a 10% market share and only just maintaining third place in units sold, be a monopoly? She’s not in the right. She is either politicking to the extreme fringe or is a moron.
    Apple has 41% of the US smartphone market, twice that of its nearest rival, but that is just hardware, the monopolistic approach comes from its control of the app store etc.

    https://www.counterpointresearch.com/us-market-smartphone-share/

    Similarly Amazon. Walmart has 8% of the US physical retail market, but Amazon has 49% of US Online sales, and uses its Market place to gather information on smaller businesses then screws them by pinching their customers.

    The issue with Amazon (which isn’t really a conglomerate) is predatory behaviour in the M&A market (“sell to us cheap or we’re going to f*** you”)

    That’s already illegal - but is nothing to do with Aws and amazon being co owned
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:

    DavidL said:

    moonshine said:

    moonshine said:



    .
    AWS's share of global cloud services is roughly an order of magnitude bigger than Amazon's share of even US-only retail. Apple is only the third largest supplier of smartphones by unit. It's an odd line of attack and an unbecoming one, as it marks her out as anti-capitalist and anti-profit rather than anti-monopoly. I for one hope she fails miserably if this is the best she has in her locker.
    Economically, as opposed to socially, I am pretty right wing and I would support policies like this. These companies have dominant market positions that they abuse. What goes on in Amazon's market place is a disgrace. Just as the oil majors once needed broken up, just as ATT and the telecoms giants did, just as Microsoft needed to be forced to allow space in the market place so that other flowers could grow, so we need to curtail these tech giants. Efficient capitalism needs effective state regulation of the markets. Right now we have the largest companies in the world paying tax when they feel like it, setting their own prices, creating enormous barriers to entry and eating the seed corn of the future.
    These days though, that kind of thinking is pretty much exclusively on the left.
    Agreed but it shouldn't be. Adam Smith explained this a long time ago. One of the inefficiencies of markets is the tendency to monopoly/oligarchy. It needs to be controlled for the sake of long term growth. Letting people abuse their market dominance is not right wing, its stupid and ultimately self defeating.
    Good points - which is why I'm intensely relaxed about Warren's policy in this particular area.
    Just the threat of legislation has the possibility of getting marginal improvements, and while I think it unlikely that she'll be able to carry our the threatened breakups, it will tend to move public opinion in an anti-trust direction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Sounds like a few MPs are having a nice day out.

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1184359458966818817?s=19

    Seems a point less trip, the EU will offer an extension if asked so theres no worries, it's in parliaments hands whether theres a deal to vote down or not.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:


    Of course.
    But I suspect everyone is getting wound up to no great purpose over this. An incoming Democratic president will have a mountain of things on their agenda, and even if the Senate tips to the Democrats, only a limited ability to get legislation through Congress. They will have to prioritise.

    Is Warren really going to back-burner her healthcare, tax and/or climate change plans to fight a long, complex and ultimately confusing antitrust battle ?
    I doubt it.

    Going after Facebook on privacy issues might be a far simpler and more productive approach.

    Her healthcare and climate change plans are unlikely to survive contact with Joe Manchin, so yeah, potentially she'll be mostly working on stuff like this that she can do with existing executive powers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    kle4 said:

    Looks like The Clown has caved in: N Ireland to remain in the Single Market. The DUP are going to go mental. Or rather, even more mental.

    And Spain probably going to imposes Direct Rule in Catalonia.

    Would all these old imperial powers not be better off just letting the remaining bits of empire go? Better being friendly neighbours than grumpy lodgers.

    Ah, that lazy imperial suggestion crops up. NI will probably have a majority for reunification soon, but up to now has not wanted to be 'let go'. What, the UK should split itself up even when the bit split off didnt want to be? Not caring what the locals want sounds awfully imperial of you, if trends are right they will leave in good time by their choice, not be 'let go'.
    It's not a lazy suggestion. The likely imposition of a Brexit settlement against the wishes of large majorities in both NI and Scotland is part of that mindset.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1184348458616008704?s=21

    I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.

    Whether it will be saleable is another matter.

    1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger
    2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it
    3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
    The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.

    It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!

    They've not been amenable to bribery yet. Either it wasnt enough or...it wasnt enough to cover for them being embarrassed for standing down.

    Problem is even if it is pure principle they just block everything and give cover to ERG Spartans so theres no achievable solution.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Stocky said:

    MarquesMarks said: "Our MPs should be made to do their jobs - and be the final arbiters on this deal, to implement Brexit as they promised their voters they would."

    The trouble is that many of the MPs who voted Remain promised that they would honour the referendum result but didn`t really mean it. They were scared of their particular electorate rather than standing up for what they really thought. This wss always going to end badly.

    They have honoured the result. It was very close and the "win" was based on a pack of lies. Brexit as a philosophy is a clusterfuck of incoherent bullshit. MPs have therefore honoured the result by continuing in that vein, and also honouring the hung parliament that trumped the referendum result.
    Bullshit from start to finish
    As a description of Brexit, that is remarkably succinct.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    TGOHF2 said:
    Interesting but it’s not asking the question on a second vote . Basically it’s asking if the ref result should be honoured . I think Brexit sucks but think the UK needs to leave now in an orderly way with a deal .

    If there was a second vote I’d vote Remain though .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    On a different market, those betting on next Speaker may find this useful:

    https://twitter.com/hansardsociety/status/1184178790051860481?s=21

    Saying they dont want to be the story or as high profile might win votes but I imagine even Bercow started off that way.
This discussion has been closed.