I think Warren is now the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, with Buttigieg her closest rival in Iowa, Sanders in New Hampshire and Biden in South Carolina.
Buttigieg also scored some hits on Warren in the debate last night on how she will have to raise taxes for her proposed Medicare for all plan, something Sanders has admitted he will have to do but not yet her. If she did become nominee be assured the Trump campaign would also run ads hitting her on taxes
I agree with you that she's the frontrunner, and that she's a weak candidate for the ge. Where I think we disagree is I think she's a better candidate than Biden, and I also think she's still more likely to beat Trump than lose
Yeah, but Ohio is not the tipping swing state in the current climate. If a Democrat is winning Ohio they have probably already won enough Electoral College points to get the GE. Easier wins in Nev, Penn, Mich, Wisc, and even potentially Florida mean Ohio may not matter. Due to the nature of which states vote similarly, Ohio is not the tell tale swing state it may have been previously.
Also, I'm not really comfortable with your general spotlights on single polls, and personally prefer poll aggregates. The aggregate of all polls show all three of Biden, Sanders and Warren beating Trump in Ohio:
Fair points. And if someone then just responds by ignoring both points and just continuing to cite a single poll from Ohio, I think you have every reason not to bother continuing to bash your head against a brick wall.
Although Ohio could be the tipping point state, even if it's not that likely to be. Eg Dems pick up Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn, but Trump picks up New Hampshire leaving Dems needing one more. It is possible that Dems would pick up Ohio before Florida in this situation - Obama won Ohio by more than he won Florida in 2012. I think Ohio should be an important target for Dems in 2020.
(I'm not sure what was meant by "Nev" in above post: Clinton won Nevada in 2016).
I read this the other way around. Midnight Brussels time has not been reached. A deal of some sort will be renegotiated now, I expect.
Whether it will be saleable is another matter.
1. It will involve MASSIVE climb-down by shagger 2. It will involve MASSIVE hypocrisy by ERG members who back it 3. Brexiteers in the country will then turn Johnson's language back onto him and the Tories. SURRENDER! TRAITORS!
The DUP’s reaction will be critical. They are under pressure too. There is no shortage of Northern Irish politicians getting ready to accuse them of betrayal too.
It will be nothing moiney cannot solve. Why send £350 million a week to Brussels when it can be spent on bribing the DUP instead??!!
I don't think that true. While the DUP love the pork barrel, the idea that everyone's principles are for sale is a particularly Tory vice, as we see with the Magic Money Tree promises.
We will see. I suspect that the DUP sign-off will be accompanied by a hell of a lot of cash!
You can bet on it , they are worse than the Lib Dems.
I don't personally support these protestors or their aims but they have shown absolutely no violence and being treated this way by the police is just wrong.
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(I'm not sure what was meant by "Nev" in above post: Clinton won Nevada in 2016).