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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories in".
    But the Coaliton clearly showed the LDs to be a party of the Centre-Right!How many left of centre parties would have backed the introduction of significant fees re- Employment Tribunals?
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    A period of austerity was not the time to be reducing Income Tax - even via higher thresholds. The poorest gained nothing from that whilst losing a great deal from Benefit cuts and freezes.
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    The poorest gained nothing from raising Income Tax thresholds in that their earnings were too low to be liable to pay tax. They did lose significantly from the Coalition cuts to Benefits. Reducing Income Tax at the same time as slashing public spending was a very right wing policy - even if a cut in the basic rate would have been worse still. A reduction in VAT to 15% would have been more progressive.
    I know people on JSA, who are basically umemployable and have not had their benefits increased since 2015. At least the coalition increased benefits, the Tories just freeze them or cut them. The welfare state has failed people under the Tories...
    Boris has increased spending on the NHS, police etc relative to the Coalition and also increased the minimum wage again too
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    HYUFD said:
    Since he is such a great campaigner why would he fear a referendum?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Blair was very much a centre-right figure - well to the right of people such as Macmillan, Eden,Butler, Macleod and Heath. He was a war criminal , and - with Bush - was more guilty under the Nuremberg indictment relating to 'Planning for War' than any of the Nazi leaders put on trial in 1945/46 - with the possible exception of Ribbentrop.
    I was happy to support the LDs under Charles Kennedy in both 2001 and 2005.

    While I despise Blair almost as much as you do, I would gently suggest it is more than a little extreme to suggest he was more guilty on that head than Goering - or for that matter, Raeder, Neurath or Keitel.
    I disagree. Goering did not want a war in 1939 at all. Raeder and Keitel were senior military personnel and had no role in political decision making at all. They were no more guilty than people on the British side such as Ironside - Dowding - Dudley Pound - or Alanbrooke.
    Neurath was not a Nazi and had been Foreign Minister before Hitler became Chancellor. He was close to Hindenburg and strongly disapproved of Hitler's aggressive war aims. He suffered a series of heart attacks in late 1937 after attending he conference where Hitler revealed his real intentions.
    Goering - the man in charge of the Luftwaffe and converting the German economy to a war footing - was not implicated in waging aggressive war?

    Okaaaay...the way I find logic in your position is to note he was utterly rubbish at both jobs, but even so.

    As for your other comment, there is every reason to think Hitler didn't want a war in 1939, except a brief one against Poland. He miscalculated, but that is another story.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JohnO said:

    This is becoming tedious. I vote we return to discussing Breggsit.

    Too late, the thread's been scrambled.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. Nashe, depends how hard Remainers view things. War over, or war goes on?

    If being pro-EU remains a critical political identity that's very helpful for the Lib Dems.

    I'm with you here.

    There's a pro-eu poster on this site who believes that, if we revoked, then (because it had all been such a hassle) the question of leaving the EU wouldn't come up again in his lifetime. It's such an extraordinary view, I don't know if I should laugh, or laugh hysterically.

    But there are even more who think the same on the Brexit side. Somehow, all those people who turned out to march for the EU (or who cheered then on from their barstool or armchair) will shrug their shoulders and let it go.

    There are already local groups getting ready for the rejoin campaign once we've left. In some ways, they are more frustrated by the delay than the leavers. Once we know what exactly we are leaving then individual activists can start marking out things they can do to get us back in. All the time everything is up in the air all that can be done is planning. I don't know what the other side have in mind, but if they aren't prepared to continually fight every move to restore European integration we aren't going to be out for long.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    As a “die hard” remainer, the putative deal looks reasonable to me, given the negotiating parameters. I can also see the DUP and the ERGers going along with it.

    Obviously I will be disappointed that this is ultimately a hard Brexit (I wanted to stay in the single market) but perhaps that is not ruled out for the future.

    I would still like to see a referendum on this though. It’s taken three years to get to this point and I believe the original mandate was flawed. I think Leave would win and I’d be fairly happy with that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    egg said:

    justin124 said:

    The Express article refers to a'thumping 5% lead'. Perhaps the vote shares have been rounded.
    Front of the express calls it thumping 5% lead that will lead to an amazing 15 seat majority.

    I think everyone on PB now expect polls to narrow soon as gun is fired and focus turns from dispatch box to constituency’s, so all polls are meaningless until then.
    I'm by no means clear that is a 'PB' consensus. A clear GE victory for one party is certainly eminently possible. At the moment more likely for the Tories. Time will tell - much depends on Labour pulling back LD voters at this time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
  • justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    !
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories are duty-bound to vote Labour. If Labour don't want to appeal to centre-left voters then that's their choice but it's no use moaning that they then vote for somebody else and "let the Tories in".
    But the Coaliton clearly showed the LDs to be a party of the Centre-Right!How many left of centre parties would have backed the introduction of significant fees re- Employment Tribunals?
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    A period of austerity was not the time to be reducing Income Tax - even via higher thresholds. The poorest gained nothing from that whilst losing a great deal from Benefit cuts and freezes.
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    The poorest gained nothing from raising Income Tax thresholds in that their earnings were too low to be liable to pay tax. They did lose significantly from the Coalition cuts to Benefits. Reducing Income Tax at the same time as slashing public spending was a very right wing policy - even if a cut in the basic rate would have been worse still. A reduction in VAT to 15% would have been more progressive.
    Why is a policy designed to help the working poor being judged against helping the very poorest (who by definition are not working)? One of the lessons from Brexit is surely that the working poor (and below average) have not had the attention of governments for many years, so the coalition income tax policy was a rare one in their favour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    felix said:

    egg said:

    justin124 said:

    The Express article refers to a'thumping 5% lead'. Perhaps the vote shares have been rounded.
    Front of the express calls it thumping 5% lead that will lead to an amazing 15 seat majority.

    I think everyone on PB now expect polls to narrow soon as gun is fired and focus turns from dispatch box to constituency’s, so all polls are meaningless until then.
    I'm by no means clear that is a 'PB' consensus. A clear GE victory for one party is certainly eminently possible. At the moment more likely for the Tories. Time will tell - much depends on Labour pulling back LD voters at this time.
    The next result will hang as much on the geography as on the polls.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    !
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories in".
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    A period of austerity was not the time to be reducing Income Tax - even via higher thresholds. The poorest gained nothing from that whilst losing a great deal from Benefit cuts and freezes.
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    The poorest gained nothing from raising Income Tax thresholds in that their earnings were too low to be liable to pay tax. They did lose significantly from the Coalition cuts to Benefits. Reducing Income Tax at the same time as slashing public spending was a very right wing policy - even if a cut in the basic rate would have been worse still. A reduction in VAT to 15% would have been more progressive.
    I know people on JSA, who are basically umemployable and have not had their benefits increased since 2015. At least the coalition increased benefits, the Tories just freeze them or cut them. The welfare state has failed people under the Tories...
    Boris has increased spending on the NHS, police etc relative to the Coalition and also increased the minimum wage again too
    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    As a “die hard” remainer, the putative deal looks reasonable to me, given the negotiating parameters. I can also see the DUP and the ERGers going along with it.

    Obviously I will be disappointed that this is ultimately a hard Brexit (I wanted to stay in the single market) but perhaps that is not ruled out for the future.

    I would still like to see a referendum on this though. It’s taken three years to get to this point and I believe the original mandate was flawed. I think Leave would win and I’d be fairly happy with that.

    I think a referendum now would be pretty much 50:50 if what I'm seeing is representative. Nobody has changed their minds, but the motivation is higher on the remain side.

    (Caveat - I live in the country. Big towns and cities are where most people live.)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    Blair was very much a centre-right figure - well to the right of people such as Macmillan, Eden,Butler, Macleod and Heath. He was a war criminal , and - with Bush - was more guilty under the Nuremberg indictment relating to 'Planning for War' than any of the Nazi leaders put on trial in 1945/46 - with the possible exception of Ribbentrop.
    I was happy to support the LDs under Charles Kennedy in both 2001 and 2005.

    While I despise Blair almost as much as you do, I would gently suggest it is more than a little extreme to suggest he was more guilty on that head than Goering - or for that matter, Raeder, Neurath or Keitel.
    I disagree. Goering did not want a war in 1939 at all. Raeder and Keitel were senior military personnel and had no role in political decision making at all. They were no more guilty than people on the British side such as Ironside - Dowding - Dudley Pound - or Alanbrooke.
    Neurath was not a Nazi and had been Foreign Minister before Hitler became Chancellor. He was close to Hindenburg and strongly disapproved of Hitler's aggressive war aims. He suffered a series of heart attacks in late 1937 after attending he conference where Hitler revealed his real intentions.
    Goering - the man in charge of the Luftwaffe and converting the German economy to a war footing - was not implicated in waging aggressive war?

    Okaaaay...the way I find logic in your position is to note he was utterly rubbish at both jobs, but even so.

    As for your other comment, there is every reason to think Hitler didn't want a war in 1939, except a brief one against Poland. He miscalculated, but that is another story.
    The war came earlier than Hitler had initially planned. At the late 1937 Conference he was thinking in terms of 1942 or 1943 - rather than 1938 or 1939. He subsequently acted when opportunities in Austria , Sudetenland - and finally Poland - came his way.
    Goering was certainly involved in the rearmament programme - and ,as you say , was not very effective in the role. Nevertheless , he was not a driving force behind Hitler's plans - even though he went along with them. Had he been head of state rather than Hitler , a war would have been much less likely. Ribbentrop - by contrast - was certainly egging Hitler on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    !
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories in".
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    A period of austerity was not the time to be reducing Income Tax - even via higher thresholds. The poorest gained nothing from that whilst losing a great deal from Benefit cuts and freezes.
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    The poorest gained nothing from raising Income Tax thresholds in that their earnings were too low to be liable to pay tax. They did lose significantly from essive.
    I know people on JSA, who are basically umemployable and have not had their benefits increased since 2015. At least the coalition increased benefits, the Tories just freeze them or cut them. The welfare state has failed people under the Tories...
    Boris has increased spending on the NHS, police etc relative to the Coalition and also increased the minimum wage again too
    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...
    If you are a Tory you believe welfare should only be a short term basic safety net until you get back to work not a permanent way of life.

    If your focus is increasing welfare benefits you will never vote anything but Labour anyway

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    I think ultimately the coalition will be seen by historians as a great opportunity missed, partly through the practical demands of the financial crisis and partly due to errors by the various actors involved. Tuition fees were a debacle, although in the long run the chaos the public exam system is descending into may be more damaging to both parties.

    But then, that is true of Blairism as well. Almost every problem we have today - the ongoing financial situation, the divided country, the devolved governments either not working or being suspended, the depth of feeling over Europe and the deep distrust of politicians - can legitimately be laid at New Labour's door through either errors, or omissions, or in the case of the EU, both.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    The Lib Dems have ruled out all coalitions after any coming election.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    The DUP are not a protest party unlike the LD usp pre 2010. The DUP, will have a certain bankable vote in NI, whatever they do in Westminster until maybe the UUP shaft the DUP in the same way that the DUP did to them...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
  • twitter.com/rorybremner/status/1182628583547854850

    By the high standards he has set over the years, that is a piss poor imitation. It sounds nothing like Boris.
  • A key element in the unexpected and entirely undeserved rehabilitation of the Liberal Democrats is no one took the oppertunity to replace them. Change UK was both too late and disasterously handled. The Greens in England and Wales are too Watermelon and too obsessed with being an alternative to Labour and were too slow to see Corbyn meant that was a cul de sac anyway. I think if they'd got to the Berry/Bartley stage earlier things might have been different. Ditto Plaid under Leanne Wood. UKIP did become a sucessful third party for a while but on too different a part of the spectrum to replace the Lib Dems.

    So regretably while not the heroes we want or need they are the heroes we are left with. You can't beat something with nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited October 2019
    Noo said:

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being thrown out of the window at the time. Nowadays you have countries with debt in excessive of 200% GDP and investors aren't as worried as they were 10 years ago. QE, low inflation, low unemployment.. it's a new world. The austerity narrative, the bond markets, Clegg, and even some in Labour were still thinking in old terms.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    The Lib Dems have ruled out all coalitions after any coming election.
    So has Corbyn.

    When they realise the logic of that is that Boris Johnson remains in power, they may of course change their minds.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy.
    And so, priority for Clegg was "saving the UK from the previous Labour government". The narrative made sense at the time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    I suspect David Laws and Danny Alexander have a lot to answer for. Freezing out Charlie Kennedy wasn’t a good idea, either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being e time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    Identifying problems is generally easier than resolving them. The experience of junior coalition partners around the world suggests that a definitive solution is still awaited.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    !
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories in".
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    .
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    .
    Boris has increased spending on the NHS, police etc relative to the Coalition and also increased the minimum wage again too
    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...
    If you are a Tory you believe welfare should only be a short term basic safety net until you get back to work not a permanent way of life.

    If your focus is increasing welfare benefits you will never vote anything but Labour anyway

    Its not just the long term unemployed i am talking about. Those who were in work and then find themselves out of work for a period, will find that £70 p/week is not a springboard into work but a millstone around their neck. Added to which in many local authorities someone on JSA now have to pay 20% council tax. If people start getting county court judgements against them. It makes them less employable and a vicious cycle emerges. Sometimes you need to seperate the dogma for reality!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited October 2019

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    I suspect David Laws and Danny Alexander have a lot to answer for. Freezing out Charlie Kennedy wasn’t a good idea, either.
    The LibDems would probably have been better served had a few of them acted as Peter Lloyd - Eastbourne MP - has done in this Patliament. If Kennedy, Sanders, Hughes, Pugh, Andrew George et al had opted to sit on the Opposition benches , fewer voters would have deserted them.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    A key element in the unexpected and entirely undeserved rehabilitation of the Liberal Democrats is no one took the oppertunity to replace them. Change UK was both too late and disasterously handled. The Greens in England and Wales are too Watermelon and too obsessed with being an alternative to Labour and were too slow to see Corbyn meant that was a cul de sac anyway. I think if they'd got to the Berry/Bartley stage earlier things might have been different. Ditto Plaid under Leanne Wood. UKIP did become a sucessful third party for a while but on too different a part of the spectrum to replace the Lib Dems.

    The Libs didn't need to be replaced. The circumstances were there for them to continue in the political wilderness just like they did for some 30 postwar years. Their rehabilitation now is dependent upon the delivery of the Labour Party into the arms of the extreme left under Corbyn, notwithstanding the particular opportunity that Brexit gave rise to.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    justin124 said:

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    I suspect David Laws and Danny Alexander have a lot to answer for. Freezing out Charlie Kennedy wasn’t a good idea, either.
    The LibDems would probably have been better served had a few of them acted as Peter Lloyd - Eastbourne MP - has done in this Patliament. If Kennedy, Sanders, Hughes, Pugh, Andrew George et al opted to sit on the Opposition benches , fewer voters would have deserted them.
    Voters deserted them because for five years they did not distinguish themselves from the Tories.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited October 2019

    justin124 said:

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    I suspect David Laws and Danny Alexander have a lot to answer for. Freezing out Charlie Kennedy wasn’t a good idea, either.
    The LibDems would probably have been better served had a few of them acted as Peter Lloyd - Eastbourne MP - has done in this Patliament. If Kennedy, Sanders, Hughes, Pugh, Andrew George et al opted to sit on the Opposition benches , fewer voters would have deserted them.
    Voters deserted them because for five years they did not distinguish themselves from the Tories.
    There was also deliberate targeting of LibDem seats by the Tories. But for the gains from them, Cameron would have been where he was before. IIRC he actually lost seats to Labour.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    justin124 said:

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    I suspect David Laws and Danny Alexander have a lot to answer for. Freezing out Charlie Kennedy wasn’t a good idea, either.
    The LibDems would probably have been better served had a few of them acted as Peter Lloyd - Eastbourne MP - has done in this Patliament. If Kennedy, Sanders, Hughes, Pugh, Andrew George et al opted to sit on the Opposition benches , fewer voters would have deserted them.
    Voters deserted them because for five years they did not distinguish themselves from the Tories.
    “Vote for us and we will never enter government” - it’s not working for Corbyn so far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Noo said:


    Having campaigned for the Libs and then the LibDems for many years, I still feel embarrassed by what Clegg agreed to.

    To be fair to him, he got suckered in by the narrative that the UK was on the verge of some kind of Greek style bankruptcy. And to be even fairer, a lot of economic orthodoxy was being e time. Nowadays it looks a little more naive and tends to be trotted out only be those who haven't quite caught up.
    I switched away from the Lib Dems in the last two elections, but they've done their time now, and everyone has learned a bit more about the world. I'm probably switching back next election. Not least because the coalition now looks like an island of sanity in the receding distance. The Lib Dems deserve a share of the credit for that.
    Agree with much of that. Brown’s government was in a dreadful mess, and SOMETHING HAD TO BE DONE!
    Liam Byrne wasn’t far away from the truth.
    However there were a number of things done which no ‘Liberal’ should have, as well of course the way the tuition fees issue was handled.
    And I remain firmly of the opinion that Clegg should have insisted on one of the Great Offices.

    However, that’s one for the historians (sorry, Ydoethr) and I suspect the modern LibDems would be a bit more chary of coalition. The DUP seem to have done better, to date, out of confidence and supply.
    History won’t be overly kind to Clegg.

    I believe he made the right call going into coalition, but he spunked his credibility up the wall on tertiary education, electoral reform, and now Facebook.

    The problem wasn’t coalition per se, it was that the Lib Dems didn’t have a strategy on how to survive a coalition.
    Good point. I do wonder if they actually did have a strategy but never used it. I remember hearing Paddy Ashdown being interviewed when he was a leader giving a very good account of the difficulties for the Lib Dems in a hung parliament, and he was very prescient about exactly what would happen. It's hard to believe that having worked out the problems in such detail he hadn't also devised a strategy to mitigate them. He wouldn't have announced it on the telly if he had. I wonder if there was a strategy lying around in the office somewhere that Clegg chose not to follow.
    Identifying problems is generally easier than resolving them. The experience of junior coalition partners around the world suggests that a definitive solution is still awaited.
    Lega in Italy looked like they'd cracked it, but may have tripped over their own feet.
  • Yellow_SubmarineYellow_Submarine Posts: 647
    edited October 2019
    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    What, Exactly, Is Tulsi Gabbard Up To?
    As she injects chaos into the 2020 Democratic primary by accusing her own party of “rigging” the election, an array of alt-right internet stars, white nationalists and Russians have praised her.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard.html
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Voters deserted them because for five years they did not distinguish themselves from the Tories.

    They were distinguished from the Tories by the anguish they expressed about doing the things they were forced to do as part of the Coalition, while the Tories embraced the policies they conceded to the Lib Dems (like the increase in the personal allowance, or the pupil premium), or simply defeated them (AV, Lords reform).

    Consequently, everyone could tell you the things that the Lib Dems had conceded to the Tories (tuition fees, austerity) but no-one could tell you what the Tories had conceded to the Lib Dems.

    They had nothing to point to that would justify the sacrifices made. They were unable to say, "we forced the Tories to do x and if you vote for us we'll fight for y and z"
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Don't know where you live, but that's been common in every market town in Gloucestershire for 15 years.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Given BJ wants to give tax cuts to the rich as a priority and his leadership election comments. It is a sad indictment on opposition parties that they are unable to link the dire situation of the destitute to the misplaced agenda of giving more to those with wealth. It is simply not right to have the level of homelessness, beggers and needy in the numbers we have now. Something needs to change...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Given BJ wants to give tax cuts to the rich as a priority and his leadership election comments. It is a sad indictment on opposition parties that they are unable to link the dire situation of the destitute to the misplaced agenda of giving more to those with wealth. It is simply not right to have the level of homelessness, beggers and needy in the numbers we have now. Something needs to change...
    It is the US Republican strategy. Tax cuts for rich individuals and companies, with electoral support gained on red meat social policies, such as bashing foreigners and those on welfare. It is not a bad strategy in terms of elections, just a desperately bad one from the point of living in a socially cohesive country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    ydoethur said:

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Don't know where you live, but that's been common in every market town in Gloucestershire for 15 years.
    The number of rough sleepers in Leicester has definitely got a lot worse over the last few years. Too many lives wasted.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Good. There is a very good chance that I would vote for her.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Foxy said:

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Given BJ wants to give tax cuts to the rich as a priority and his leadership election comments. It is a sad indictment on opposition parties that they are unable to link the dire situation of the destitute to the misplaced agenda of giving more to those with wealth. It is simply not right to have the level of homelessness, beggers and needy in the numbers we have now. Something needs to change...
    It is the US Republican strategy. Tax cuts for rich individuals and companies, with electoral support gained on red meat social policies, such as bashing foreigners and those on welfare. It is not a bad strategy in terms of elections, just a desperately bad one from the point of living in a socially cohesive country.
    Not so sure it will work in the UK, given the multi-party system. Tactical voting might cause the US strategy to fail in the UK!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Thankfully the voters of Leaverstan voted leave so now all their problems will be over, right?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    In which city are you referring?
  • What, Exactly, Is Tulsi Gabbard Up To?
    As she injects chaos into the 2020 Democratic primary by accusing her own party of “rigging” the election, an array of alt-right internet stars, white nationalists and Russians have praised her.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard.html

    There has been speculation for at least six months she's positioning for a Third Party run. Cynics say to take leftish Democrats a la Jill Stein who will never vote Trump. The expectation being she'd leave the party just after the elimination of Sanders. I think the problem for her is it was all wargamed on Biden or Harris being the nominee. It's much harder to run to the anti corporatist left of Elizabeth Warren.

    I watched the first 30 minutes of her Joe Rogan experience interview and felt a disturbance in the Force. She's incredibly talented but also obviously a sociopath.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    Visually London looks similar to, but not quite as bad, as the 90s were. Rough sleeping was almost eradicated outside the west end by the end of the Blair years, so it is probably an increase of something between 3-6 times since then.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Foxy said:

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Given BJ wants to give tax cuts to the rich as a priority and his leadership election comments. It is a sad indictment on opposition parties that they are unable to link the dire situation of the destitute to the misplaced agenda of giving more to those with wealth. It is simply not right to have the level of homelessness, beggers and needy in the numbers we have now. Something needs to change...
    It is the US Republican strategy. Tax cuts for rich individuals and companies, with electoral support gained on red meat social policies, such as bashing foreigners and those on welfare. It is not a bad strategy in terms of elections, just a desperately bad one from the point of living in a socially cohesive country.
    Not so sure it will work in the UK, given the multi-party system. Tactical voting might cause the US strategy to fail in the UK!
    If Labour had a platform halfway between New Labour and Blue Labour we would defeat it every time.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Thankfully the voters of Leaverstan voted leave so now all their problems will be over, right?
    Indeed, a smaller economy compared to staying in the EU is not going to lead to a massive flow of cash to Leave areas. The only way that could happen is through a leftwing government that would destabilize an already damaged economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    !
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories in".
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    .
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    .
    Boris has increased spending on the NHS, police etc relative to the Coalition and also increased the minimum wage again too
    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a for nearly a decade ...
    If you are a Tory you believe welfare should only be a short term basic safety net until you get back to work not a permanent way of life.

    If your focus is increasing welfare benefits you will never vote anything but Labour anyway

    Its not just the long term unemployed i am talking about. Those who were in work and then find themselves out of work for a period, will find that £70 p/week is not a springboard into work but a millstone around their neck. Added to which in many local authorities someone on JSA now have to pay 20% council tax. If people start getting county court judgements against them. It makes them less employable and a vicious cycle emerges. Sometimes you need to seperate the dogma for reality!
    Those who are in work and out of work for a short period will find there are plenty of jobs still around and the Tories are increasing even the minimum wage to £10.50 an hour.

  • Interesting info on the South American forest fires.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49971563

    Inevitably the situation is rather more complicated than what was first reported.

    In Bolivia, fires - some set deliberately - have destroyed more than four million hectares since May, but heavy rain may now be easing the situation. On Tuesday officials said wildfires in the east had been quelled, and footage showed firefighters in badly-hit Chiquitanía jumping for joy.

    Bolivia's fires had triggered mass protests against President Evo Morales, who recently passed a decree allowing farmers to clear four times more land for agriculture - a process completed by burning.


    So will all those people who were frothing about Bolsonaro do likewise about Morales ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Foxy said:

    Re ' Austerity : Here in deepest Leaverstan I was shocked yet not remotely surprised to discover a pilot of a Winter Nighshelter was being launched. Unthinkable in a small market town even 5 years ago and now desperately needed. Not a single statutory agency involved or funding although everyone gagging to refer to it. Entirely down to a coalition of churches plus one experienced fundraiser who works in the field. Everyone engaged I talk to locally says we are seeing a level of public destitution not seen since the last slum clearences in the ' 30s.

    Given BJ wants to give tax cuts to the rich as a priority and his leadership election comments. It is a sad indictment on opposition parties that they are unable to link the dire situation of the destitute to the misplaced agenda of giving more to those with wealth. It is simply not right to have the level of homelessness, beggers and needy in the numbers we have now. Something needs to change...
    It is the US Republican strategy. Tax cuts for rich individuals and companies, with electoral support gained on red meat social policies, such as bashing foreigners and those on welfare. It is not a bad strategy in terms of elections, just a desperately bad one from the point of living in a socially cohesive country.
    Not so sure it will work in the UK, given the multi-party system. Tactical voting might cause the US strategy to fail in the UK!
    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Interesting info on the South American forest fires.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49971563

    Inevitably the situation is rather more complicated than what was first reported.

    In Bolivia, fires - some set deliberately - have destroyed more than four million hectares since May, but heavy rain may now be easing the situation. On Tuesday officials said wildfires in the east had been quelled, and footage showed firefighters in badly-hit Chiquitanía jumping for joy.

    Bolivia's fires had triggered mass protests against President Evo Morales, who recently passed a decree allowing farmers to clear four times more land for agriculture - a process completed by burning.


    So will all those people who were frothing about Bolsonaro do likewise about Morales ?

    Depends if he is left or right wing.......
  • Apparently Kate Osamor's local party is balloting for deselection. First one on the left I've heard about.
    ]

    Daughter of a Baroness you know!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    Visually London looks similar to, but not quite as bad, as the 90s were. Rough sleeping was almost eradicated outside the west end by the end of the Blair years, so it is probably an increase of something between 3-6 times since then.
    The Homelessness Reduction Act was passed in 2017
  • justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    Foxy said:

    justin124 said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    Jonathan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a general rule, I think betting on the LibDems is for people with more money than sense. But I think they'll absolutely walk Richmond Park. If the majority is less than 7-8,000 I'd be very surprised.

    Do you remember that guy who became a regular on PB about 10 years ago. Think he lived in Canada. The poor sod bet his shirt on the Lib Dems, based purely on advice here. When he lost big time, the screams of agony were intolerable. He’s never been seen again. Buyer beware!
    The LDs role in this election appears to be to split the opposition vote and gift Boris a majority. It took 14 years to recover from that last time.
    We can blame moderate ex Labour members for letting the Tories win again by voting LD
    It's fairly arrogant to assume that anyone who doesn't like the Tories are duty-bound to vote Labour. If Labour don't want to appeal to centre-left voters then that's their choice but it's no use moaning that they then vote for somebody else and "let the Tories in".
    But the Coaliton clearly showed the LDs to be a party of the Centre-Right!How many left of centre parties would have backed the introduction of significant fees re- Employment Tribunals?
    It wasn't an LD majority government!

    Raising the threshold for income tax, introducing the pupil premium were redistributive policies of LD origin.
    They could still have blocked it.

    A period of austerity was not the time to be reducing Income Tax - even via higher thresholds. The poorest gained nothing from that whilst losing a great deal from Benefit cuts and freezes.
    Simply not true. The working poor gained significantly. It was a reditributive act as surely you can agree.
    The poorest gained nothing from raising Income Tax thresholds in that their earnings were too low to be liable to pay tax. They did lose significantly from the Coalition cuts to Benefits. Reducing Income Tax at the same time as slashing public spending was a very right wing policy - even if a cut in the basic rate would have been worse still. A reduction in VAT to 15% would have been more progressive.
    I doubt the poorest pay much VAT.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    What, Exactly, Is Tulsi Gabbard Up To?
    As she injects chaos into the 2020 Democratic primary by accusing her own party of “rigging” the election, an array of alt-right internet stars, white nationalists and Russians have praised her.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard.html

    There has been speculation for at least six months she's positioning for a Third Party run. Cynics say to take leftish Democrats a la Jill Stein who will never vote Trump. The expectation being she'd leave the party just after the elimination of Sanders. I think the problem for her is it was all wargamed on Biden or Harris being the nominee. It's much harder to run to the anti corporatist left of Elizabeth Warren.

    I watched the first 30 minutes of her Joe Rogan experience interview and felt a disturbance in the Force. She's incredibly talented but also obviously a sociopath.
    She was a one that went on an Assad paid trip of Syria. Pretty clearly in the Putin-Trump-Farage-Stein bloc.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    How do the Remainer policies of more poor immigrants and higher house prices help the homeless ?
  • HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    Visually London looks similar to, but not quite as bad, as the 90s were. Rough sleeping was almost eradicated outside the west end by the end of the Blair years, so it is probably an increase of something between 3-6 times since then.
    The Homelessness Reduction Act was passed in 2017
    The devil will be in the detail and implementation. Fortunately we have such a capable set of ministers.....oops the capable ones seem to have been kicked out and replaced by idiots.

    "Shelter supports the legislation because it extends entitlements to help, places a renewed focus on the prevention of homelessness and local joint working, and has the potential to provide more client-focussed, personalised statutory homelessness services.

    But its laudable aims to reduce homelessness will be undermined without improvements to wider housing and welfare policy, to address both the causes of homelessness and to ensure that homeless households have access to settled, affordable and suitable housing in each local authority area.

    Without these improvements, there could be unintended consequences, such as 'gate-keeping' of services, unlawful decisions, increased out-of-area moves and repeat homelessness, with damaging consequences for children and other vulnerable applicants, and little improvement in meaningful outcomes"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019

    What, Exactly, Is Tulsi Gabbard Up To?
    As she injects chaos into the 2020 Democratic primary by accusing her own party of “rigging” the election, an array of alt-right internet stars, white nationalists and Russians have praised her.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard.html

    The rigging line helps with fundraising, Sanders used it as well. (TBF it wasn't completely without merit, but only at the point when Sanders had already been mathematically eliminated.)

    She might end up as Trump's VP though.
  • HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    Visually London looks similar to, but not quite as bad, as the 90s were. Rough sleeping was almost eradicated outside the west end by the end of the Blair years, so it is probably an increase of something between 3-6 times since then.
    The Homelessness Reduction Act was passed in 2017
    Nevertheless the current level of homelessness is unacceptable, and unquestionably the direct responsibility of the Government and it’s policies.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    Well it's a crap system!

    Americans were voting on a national basis for a President to govern the whole country.

    Hillary Clinton got 65,853,514 votes
    The Racist-in-Chief got only 62,984,828 votes
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    As a “die hard” remainer, the putative deal looks reasonable to me, given the negotiating parameters. I can also see the DUP and the ERGers going along with it.

    Obviously I will be disappointed that this is ultimately a hard Brexit (I wanted to stay in the single market) but perhaps that is not ruled out for the future.

    I would still like to see a referendum on this though. It’s taken three years to get to this point and I believe the original mandate was flawed. I think Leave would win and I’d be fairly happy with that.

    Imagine we leave, we fight hard for a Lib Dem win on a manifesto of Rejoin. Then we have a Rejoin win after a big campaign. We negotiate rejoining and are halfway through the process and it turns out we can join, stay out the Euro but lose the rebate. Should we then have another referendum on the terms? What about when the terms change in the next EU treaty?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I suspect the main causes are the price of housing and the depletion of middle income jobs.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    The longer your out of work the more difficult it is to get one
  • MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    According to the ONS there is a grand total of 171 thousand who have been unemployed for 24+ months - about 0.5% of the workforce.

    And its not a group which will get much sympathy from the working poor.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I suspect the main causes are the price of housing and the depletion of middle income jobs.
    No, rough sleeping is a more complex problem. Key factors include family breakdown, addiction, mental health issues.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited October 2019
    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
  • nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    The longer your out of work the more difficult it is to get one
    That's true but how much of that is the fault of the 'system' or the fault of the individual concerned ?

    And there's more than one way to getting back into employment.

    Years of unemployment wont look good on a CV in a job application but if someone works via an agency there's no telling who they are and what they've been doing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,192
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    FPTP would mean the candidate getting a plurality of the votes winning, ie Hillary Clinton.

    Also you don't need to win "more states" in order to win in the electoral college.

    Also everyone is aware that Trump won in the electoral college and is the US president

    Apart from that a very useful comment.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    I wonder whether the next resignation might be Corbyn? It would make sense. It's obvious that an election held in the next few months would be a disaster for Labour particularly if Johnson gets a deal. But there's nothing Corbyn can do to prevent one which wont be humiliating for both him and the party.........except resigning.

    He has a tailor made excuse. Age-after a five year term he'll be 76.

    It would have the duel effect of allowing Labour to choose someone more voter friendly and enable them without losing face to delay till such time as they could win.

    Could Corbyn's final act be his greatest?

    A tip from Sydney Carton perhaps...

    'It is a far far better thing that I do than I have ever done. It is a far far better rest that I go to than I have ever known...."

    He can't resign. If he does the other parties will go for the election with Labour rudderless
    They can't without Labour votes. Labour would have a legitimate reason for not agreeing to an election until they had elected a new leader. Watson could stand in or Corbyn could lead until another leader was chosen.
    As discussed on here many times, if the LDs or SNP want an election, the votes are there
    Watson standing in will mean the NEC has control as per the conference motion
    A party using a strategic resignation to try and avoid a GE will cost them another few %
    By my calculations 216 have to abstain or vote against. Labour cross that bridge easily. Corbyn's not stupid. He knows he's going to lose. Why be humiliated when he could resign gloriously. Maybe Jess Phillips throwing her hat into the ring might give the idea impetus. She's an attractive candidate
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I've been very resistant to the word ' austerity ' but I've started using it myself in the last six months. It's largely living in this part of Leaverstan where the ' public realm ' is simply collapse. Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair. Public destitution and squalor is lapping at the shore. Meanwhile everyone is concreting their garden to park their brand new PCP funded tank-sized car.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    What, Exactly, Is Tulsi Gabbard Up To?
    As she injects chaos into the 2020 Democratic primary by accusing her own party of “rigging” the election, an array of alt-right internet stars, white nationalists and Russians have praised her.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/us/politics/tulsi-gabbard.html

    There has been speculation for at least six months she's positioning for a Third Party run. Cynics say to take leftish Democrats a la Jill Stein who will never vote Trump. The expectation being she'd leave the party just after the elimination of Sanders. I think the problem for her is it was all wargamed on Biden or Harris being the nominee. It's much harder to run to the anti corporatist left of Elizabeth Warren.

    I watched the first 30 minutes of her Joe Rogan experience interview and felt a disturbance in the Force. She's incredibly talented but also obviously a sociopath.
    Why do you think she's a sociopath?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    IanB2 said:

    Rumours that Trump will drop Pence for a woman, if it looks like he’ll be up against Warren, continue to surface. However it is hard to see him having the political capital to drop his VP so late, particularly given his loyalty. Meanwhile the Trump-Pence 2020 boards are already appearing by the roadside.

    Can Ivanka be trusted ? She is after all a Trump.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    The longer your out of work the more difficult it is to get one
    That's true but how much of that is the fault of the 'system' or the fault of the individual concerned ?

    And there's more than one way to getting back into employment.

    Years of unemployment wont look good on a CV in a job application but if someone works via an agency there's no telling who they are and what they've been doing.
    The "system" has an inbuilt level of unemployment. Full employment is unsustainable without major changes to the way the economy works, changes that would probably be frowned upon by most people on here, me included.
    Therefore it's incumbent on all of us who favour the preservation of the fundamentals of this economic system to look after those who are unemployed.

    Obviously nobody should be allowed to take the piss completely, but I'd much prefer an innocent-til-proven-guilt attitude to benefits, along with a recognition that unemployment is partially a result of personal choices, partially systemic, and partially an issue of personal capability (both long-term, such as education and short-term such as acute mental illness).
    I think universal basic income is a potential solution to my concerns, if it can be made to work.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    Speaking as someone who has very often voted conservative, “it” is the cutting of a large number of programmes introduced by New Labour that had worked to massively reduce homelessness. This is a policy area where cause and effect are pretty clear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Hillary got 48% of the vote in 2016, 8% higher than Corbyn Labour got even in 2017, Trump still won

    More Americans voted for Hillary than for the Racist-in-Chief.
    Yet more states voted for Trump and that is key in the Electoral College FPTP system
    FPTP would mean the candidate getting a plurality of the votes winning, ie Hillary Clinton.

    Also you don't need to win "more states" in order to win in the electoral college.

    Also everyone is aware that Trump won in the electoral college and is the US president

    Apart from that a very useful comment.
    No it wouldn't, what counts is winning a plurality in enough states to get you to 270 EC votes to win not in the national popular vote. Plus Churchill in 1951 won a majority under FPTP despite losing the national popular vote and Wilson won most seats in February 1974 despite losing the national popular vote.

    Generally presidential election winners win most states e.g. Bush twice, Obama twice and Trump all won a majority of US states.

    Apart from that a very useful comment
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited October 2019

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    I fear you've got an enormous job on your hands dealing with the self-insulating, self-protecting propaganda on this one. Some conservatives simply don't care ; but of the large contingent who do, accepting that the reality of the situation is far more complex than has been presented, is simply too potentially threatening. There is a similar situation with the potentially destabilising consequences of accepting human impacts on the climate and eco-systems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    edited October 2019

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I've been very resistant to the word ' austerity ' but I've started using it myself in the last six months. It's largely living in this part of Leaverstan where the ' public realm ' is simply collapse. Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair. Public destitution and squalor is lapping at the shore. Meanwhile everyone is concreting their garden to park their brand new PCP funded tank-sized car.
    Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair.

    Different places can have different situations and different people can have different experiences but I doubt many will say similar about their own locations.

    Unless they're trying to make a political point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I've been very resistant to the word ' austerity ' but I've started using it myself in the last six months. It's largely living in this part of Leaverstan where the ' public realm ' is simply collapse. Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair. Public destitution and squalor is lapping at the shore. Meanwhile everyone is concreting their garden to park their brand new PCP funded tank-sized car.
    Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair.

    Different places can have different situations and different people can have different experiences but I doubt many will say similar about their own locations.

    Unless they're trying to make a political point.
    How many Leavers on here live in majority Leave areas?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,151
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    https://www.mentalhealth.org.uk/blog/employment-vital-maintaining-good-mental-health
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    That comment by HYUFD is crass and ignorant.

    As someone who has a member of their family suffering a serious mental health crisis with a form of PTSD it is ignorance of that form which is hard to reconcile with an intelligent or thoughtful response to a crisis in so many peoples lives
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    Why? Having a purpose in life is key to staying sane. Handouts are demeaning.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    70 years of the welfare state in education and NHS, and society still produces huge social problems of homelessness. It's almost as if the poor will always be with us, so why bother doing more than the bare minimum if some people will simply never ever help themselves?
  • felix said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    Why? Having a purpose in life is key to staying sane. Handouts are demeaning.
    You miss the point.

    Many people with a mental health crisis are working and not on handouts as you call them
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    EPG said:

    70 years of the welfare state in education and NHS, and society still produces huge social problems of homelessness. It's almost as if the poor will always be with us, so why bother doing more than the bare minimum if some people will simply never ever help themselves?

    Are there no workhouses?

    Are there no prisons?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    felix said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    Why? Having a purpose in life is key to staying sane. Handouts are demeaning.
    Your first statement is true.
    That's a world away from "One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job".
    It's like telling someone who's coughing up blood to drink more water. Yeah, you do actually need to drink water, but it's probably not the cure.
  • Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    That comment by HYUFD is crass and ignorant.

    As someone who has a member of their family suffering a serious mental health crisis with a form of PTSD it is ignorance of that form which is hard to reconcile with an intelligent or thoughtful response to a crisis in so many peoples lives
    HYUFD is crass and ignorant!

    BTW, welcome back, hope you had a nice cruise!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Gabs2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I suspect the main causes are the price of housing and the depletion of middle income jobs.
    No, rough sleeping is a more complex problem. Key factors include family breakdown, addiction, mental health issues.
    Of course - but the capacity of (for instance) local authorities to address such things has been massively eroded over the last decade.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    A couple of years ago in Menton which is just along the coast from Monaco and on the Italian border I saw a long line of tired African migrants making their way into France. Wearing their uniform of black track suits and back packs this long tired line trudged along the seafront past the restaurants and the cruisers with no obvious place to go. Then from nowhere some elderly women started setting up tables and people brought food. Others gathered round and gave money. It was really heart warming. The French do have a visible homeless problem but I did wonder whether this would have happened in the UK.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    felix said:

    Noo said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:


    Yeah, that is no good if you are unemployable and been on £70 a week for 4 years (years before that as well). In this persons case a mandatory mental health check might help as the person does not understand they are mentally ill, however delicately you put it! The fact is promising money now does not reverse the absence of money for nearly a decade ...

    And where does personal responsibility come into the equation? How does a person stay unemployable for 4 years?

    You used to be a Tory member, right? Surely you can see that someone being on the dole for four years isn't good for them or the taxpayer.
    Yes, I was a one nation tory, compasion as well as economic dynamism. That is why i suggest mandatory mental health checks and compulsary movement to the right benefits. At the moment the taxpayer is doing well as the type of individual i refer to is getting just £70 a week. What does this mean? No heating, no hot water and dependence on others for food. I mix with individuals who are being punished by the system for being mentally ill. It is not right, that is before we get into sanctioning and UC problems.

    You ask how do they stay unemployed for 4 years?
    Mental health problems, inability to socialise/communicate or understand personal responsibility or aggresive or violent. Not the sort of person you want working for you!
    One of the best ways to tackle mental health problems is to get a job, even a minimum wage one stacking shelves or washing dishes
    Only a world-class imbecile would come out with a statement like that.
    Why? Having a purpose in life is key to staying sane. Handouts are demeaning.
    You miss the point.

    Many people with a mental health crisis are working and not on handouts as you call them
    Very true. And in many cases work is a direct or indirect cause of the problem. To say that it is "one of the best ways to tackle it" is white-hot ignorance.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    EPG said:

    70 years of the welfare state in education and NHS, and society still produces huge social problems of homelessness. It's almost as if the poor will always be with us, so why bother doing more than the bare minimum if some people will simply never ever help themselves?

    Are there no workhouses?

    Are there no prisons?
    Are there no state schools, NHS, jobs programmes and benefits? Yes there are. For 70 years. And human nature still produces addiction and despair. Care yes - but there should be no pretence that it is anything other than charity nor that it will return people to their feet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    EPG said:

    70 years of the welfare state in education and NHS, and society still produces huge social problems of homelessness. It's almost as if the poor will always be with us, so why bother doing more than the bare minimum if some people will simply never ever help themselves?

    Are there no workhouses?

    Are there no prisons?
    :+1:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    EPG said:

    70 years of the welfare state in education and NHS, and society still produces huge social problems of homelessness. It's almost as if the poor will always be with us, so why bother doing more than the bare minimum if some people will simply never ever help themselves?

    Not sure what the welfare state in education and NHS is expected to do about lack of housing.
  • Jonathan said:

    Rough sleeping is noticeably worse in the past three years. Almost back to early 90s.

    It's a Europe-wide phenomenon, though. France is worse. So the causes are not simply 'austerity', whatever that is.
    I've been very resistant to the word ' austerity ' but I've started using it myself in the last six months. It's largely living in this part of Leaverstan where the ' public realm ' is simply collapse. Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair. Public destitution and squalor is lapping at the shore. Meanwhile everyone is concreting their garden to park their brand new PCP funded tank-sized car.
    Everything is dirty, broken, vandalised, closing and in disrepair.

    Different places can have different situations and different people can have different experiences but I doubt many will say similar about their own locations.

    Unless they're trying to make a political point.
    How many Leavers on here live in majority Leave areas?
    Well I do for a start.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    On topic, a second thoughtful article in the Atlantic addressing Trump’s mental stability:
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/donald-trump-not-well/597640/

This discussion has been closed.